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The NFL Draft was created to add college players in a way that rewards the NFL’s worst teams more than its best, in an effort to maintain some semblance of competitive balance.

While prior year record dictates current year selections, several elements cause the distribution of draft capital to be imbalanced every year.

For instance, trades cause some teams to be better off, and the overlooked (by many fans) world of compensatory selections allows some really good teams to have even more value than expected based on their finish the year before.

So, which teams have the most and which teams have the least 2026 NFL Draft capital?

Let's examine that question using our Sharp Football Total Draft Value metric.

Last Updated: April 19

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2026 NFL Draft Capital Rankings

2026 NFL Draft Capital Infographic

How Sharp Football Total Draft Value is Calculated

The draft value metric is a valuation on draft capital based on a combination of average performance delivered and average dollars earned on second contracts.

This is based on two public models:

• AV model created by Chase Stuart: Performance delivered based on the draft slot
• OTC model created by Brad Spielberger and Jason Fitzgerald: Contractual earnings for non-rookie deals based on draft slot

When used together, our Sharp Football Total Draft Value metric gives a good picture of the average rookie contract value of each pick along with the longer-term value of the players selected at each pick.

How do the best NFL coaches evaluate quarterback play at the college level?

The trouble with some college offenses is that it’s easier to generate tremendous counting stats due to the way the offenses are constructed, through the incorporation of superior spacing and timing.

Average quarterbacks are capable of putting up stats that elite quarterbacks only dreamed of years ago.

Additionally, spacing is different in college than in the NFL, and some coaches are relying less on their eyes when studying the tape of college prospects.

As such, it makes evaluating quarterback play much more challenging.

The one trait Sean Payton values more than any other is processing speed.

But how do you measure processing speed?

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How Sean Payton Measures Processing Speed

Payton created a proxy for processing speed by focusing on when quarterbacks make mistakes, such as taking sacks, fumbling the ball, or throwing an interception.

He turned it into a formula.

According to ESPN’s Seth Wickersham:

When Payton scouted [Patrick] Mahomes, he sought to develop a formula that would evaluate the most vexing trait for college quarterbacks making the transition to the NFL: processing speed, the ability to react a fraction of a second faster than required in college. He tried to do it not by researching a quarterback's successes but by analyzing his failures. Quarterbacks with high rates of sacks and turnovers either freeze or panic, he felt. “If a quarterback is sacked quite a bit in college, per drop back, you can improve that some,” Payton says now. “But it generally means the processing is a little delayed.”

He didn't take into account offensive line competency, and he was unconcerned with arm strength. [Drew] Brees had a B-level arm. What he did at a Hall of Fame level was multitask – making adjustments at the line of scrimmage and recognizing problems and solutions – all in seconds.

Payton used his formula in 2024 when looking to draft a franchise quarterback for the Denver Broncos.

He evaluated Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix with his formula.

• Williams: 17.5% failure rate
• Maye: 10.5% failure rate
• McCarthy: 7.8% failure rate
• Nix: 2.3% failure rate

It wasn’t close.

Payton drafted Nix, and the rest is history.

This past season, Nix helped lead the Broncos to a 14-3 record as the AFC’s No. 1 seed thanks to an outstanding defense and Nix’s ability to avoid negative plays, which was exactly what Payton was looking for.

Ranking 2026 NFL Draft Quarterbacks by Processing Speed

Let’s look at the 2026 quarterback draft class using Payton’s proxy to evaluate quarterback processing speed by examining their failure rate in 2025.

It is worth noting that Fernando Mendoza, who is widely expected to be the No. 1 overall pick, ranks just 10th in this exercise.

You can read more about him in Rich Hribar's pre-draft fantasy profile.

That is one spot behind Ty Simpson, who is the only other quarterback getting first-round buzz.

Once considered a potential No. 1 overall pick, Penn State's Drew Allar is likely to go on Day 2 following a disastrous final season in college, but he comes in third in this metric.

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Not every dollar spent in free agency equates to positive expectation for teams in 2026.

So, while it’s easy to just look at which teams spent the most in free agency and presume that at least some of what they added helped their team, let’s take a different approach when trying to evaluate teams that did well in free agency.

Let’s look at the betting markets and see which teams saw their odds to win their division, their conference, or the Super Bowl improve the most.

To do this, let’s look purely at odds movement two days before legal tampering started (Saturday morning) to two days after free agency began (Thursday night) to see which teams saw their odds improve the most.

2026 NFL Odds: Steelers Winners in Free Agency

Surprisingly, the Steelers saw their odds drop across the board in the AFC the most of any mid-tier or better team.

Their average odds to win the AFC North dropped from +650 to +530, and their odds to win the AFC decreased from 33:1 to 30:1.

Pittsburgh would not be the first team I considered at free agency winners, but I love their signing of Jamel Dean and view him as one of the top steals of free agency.

With Dean off the field the last two years, the Bucs defense ranked:

#32 EPA/attempt (+0.18)
#31 success rate (50%)
#31 Y/A (7.9)
#32 quarterback rating (112)

But when Dean was playing for the Bucs, their defense ranked:

#11 EPA/attempt (-0.01)
#14 success rate (46%)
#12 Y/A (7.0)
#10 quarterback rating (89)

In addition to Dean, the Steelers added WR Michael Pittman Jr. via trade and signed RB Rico Dowdle, S Darnell Savage, and S Jaquan Brisker.

Interestingly, the shift in the Steelers' odds was limited to them winning the North and the AFC, but not the Super Bowl.

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2026 NFL Odds: Saints & Panthers Winners in Free Agency

Next up, we have two teams from the NFC South: the Saints and the Panthers.

The Saints moved from +375 to +310 to win the NFC South and from 62:1 to 46:1 to win the NFC.

Additionally, the Saints' Super Bowl odds were slashed from 150:1 to 75:1 at DraftKings, a MASSIVE shift.

The Panthers moved from +460 to +375 to win the NFC South and from 65:1 to 48:1 to win the NFC.

Interestingly, neither move changed the expected finish position for either team in the NFC South.

The Saints are still projected to finish in second place behind the Bucs, and the Panthers are still projected to finish in fourth place behind the Falcons.

Presumably, the signings that moved the needle most in New Orleans were RB Travis Etienne to logically replace Alvin Kamara and LG David Edwards, who will anchor the line in front of QB Tyler Shough.

Kamara gained only 3.6 YPC (#47 of 48 RBs) last season, which was 0.7 rushing yards under expected (#48 of 48 RBs) last year.

Out of 55 RBs with 75+ rushes, Kamara ranked:

#52 in success rate (31%)
#51 in EPA/rush (-0.14)
#51 in YPC (3.6)
#50 in yards after contact/rush (2.6)

This was despite facing some of the lightest boxes of any running back.

28% of his carries came against 8+ man boxes, the #3 lowest rate.

68% came against 7+ man boxes, the #6 lowest rate.

Etienne has his warts (especially in short yardage), but he is an upgrade over an aging Kamara.

In addition, the Saints signed LB Kaden Elliss, TE Noah Fant, and P Ryan Wright.

Overall, the Saints have spent the sixth most of any team in free agency.

The Panthers have spent $165.7M in free agency, fifth most of any team.

They signed 11 players, also the fifth most of any team.

They spent the most on any one player, signing EDGE Jaelan Phillips for $120M over 4 years.

Among all players with at least 200 pass rush snaps last season, Phillips ranked fifth with an 18.8% pressure rate.

That was the best rate of his career, but his 14.6% career pressure rate would have ranked in the top 25 among that same group last season.

Carolina really had only one other player they signed for more than one season, and that was LB Devin Lloyd for $45 million over three seasons.

Their remaining signings were all one-year deals, including players like backup QB Kenny Pickett and C Luke Fortner.

2026 NFL Odds: Raiders Winners in Free Agency

The biggest overall shift for a team not expected to compete this year was with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Though their Super Bowl odds didn’t move meaningfully at all, their odds to win the AFC West dropped from 27:1 to 20:1, and their odds to win the AFC dropped from 100:1 to 71:1.

Only the Titans spent more than the Raiders in free agency, and Las Vegas made the splash move of overpaying to ensure they landed C Tyler Linderbaum from the Ravens.

They made moves to improve their front seven on defense, acquiring EDGE Kwity Paye, LBs Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, and CB Eric Stokes.

They also traded for CB Taron Johnson and signed WR Jalen Nailor.

The Raiders also saw their trade of Maxx Crosby fall through, meaning that instead of losing him to the Ravens, he looks slated to suit up for the Raiders.

That is actually a massive boost and not what the market was expecting, thus a big part of this change.

2026 NFL Free Agency Odds Movement: Top Teams

Let’s next turn our focus to the best teams in each conference to highlight any favorable odds movement.

Among the top-five teams projected to win the NFC (Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, Lions), the only team that became a stronger favorite was the Rams.

The Rams shifted from +420 to +395 on average to win the NFC and from +150 to +140 to win the NFC West.

The biggest moves for the Rams were to beef up their secondary.

They traded with the Chiefs for CB Trent McDuffie and then signed former Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson.

It wasn’t much, but they addressed a clear need with aggression and precision, and the market respected it.

Among the projected top-nine teams in the AFC (Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, and Bengals, in that order), the only team that became a stronger favorite was the Bills.

The Bills shifted from +500 to win the AFC on average to +465, and from -140 to win the AFC East to -152.

Meanwhile, the Patriots shifted from +138 to +157.

Buffalo made a splash by signing EDGE Bradley Chubb to a $43.5M contract for three years.

Buffalo also signed CB Dee Alford from the Falcons, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the Bears, and traded with the Bears for WR D.J. Moore.

Despite the Patriots spending the #4 most money in free agency (significantly more than #21-ranked Buffalo) and signing WR Romeo Doubs, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, and EDGE Dre’Mont Jones, among others, New England saw their odds to win both the AFC East and AFC Conference get worse.

Tua Tagovailoa‘s final season with the Miami Dolphins was the worst of his four with Mike McDaniel.

It wasn't close:

• 2022: +0.18 EPA/attempt, 49% success rate
• 2023: +0.16 EPA/attempt, 49% success rate
• 2024: +0.18 EPA/attempt, 51% success rate
• 2025: -0.01 EPA/attempt, 53% success rate

Since Tagovailoa has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries for several seasons, it's helpful to break his counting stats down on a per-game basis:

• 2022: 273 yards, 1.9 TDs, 0.62 INTs
• 2023: 272 yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.82 INTs
• 2024: 260 yards, 1.7 TDs, 0.64 INTs
• 2025: 190 yards, 1.4 TDs, 1.07 INTs

While the dropoff in 2025 was alarming, Tua's success the prior three years was the exact opposite and went massively under the radar.

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Tua Tagovailoa Was Better Than You Think

Did you know Tagovailoa ranked?

#4 in EPA and #3 in success rate in 2024
#2 in EPA and #2 in success rate in 2023
#2 in EPA and #5 in success rate in 2022

Did you know Tagovailoa was the ONLY QB IN THE NFL who ranked top five in BOTH expected points added and success rate each season from 2022 through 2024?

The only one!

If you sum up the three years from 2022 through 2024, Tagovailoa’s rankings among 64 qualifying quarterbacks were:

#2 in Y/A (8.1)
#2 in completion rate (68%)
#3 in EPA/attempt (+0.17)
#3 in success rate (49%)
#4 in passer rating (102.5)
#2 in first down rate (38%)
#3 in third down conversion rate (42%)
#2 in explosive pass rate for 15+ yard gains (20%)

While this stretch was undoubtedly tremendous, the question is how much of that success can be attributed to McDaniel's offense?

Regardless of where you sit on that debate, it was undeniable how quickly Tagovailoa got rid of the football in McDaniel's scheme, and that was in large part due to how terrible the offensive line was at pass protection.

Tagovailoa Got Rid of the Football Quickly

From 2022 through 2024, Tagovailoa had to use the #1 fastest time to throw of all 64 QBs.

Meanwhile, Miami's offensive line ranked bottom 10 in pass block win rate in three of the last four years, and their offensive line had the #2 highest rate of holding penalties and the #1 fastest time to sack.

Why couldn't that same recipe be replicated in 2025?

Why did Tua's production fall off so substantially?

It was a multitude of factors, but that discussion must begin with the timing-based offense that McDaniel built.

In 2023 and 2024, Tua threw just over 40% of his passes within 2 seconds.

If that sounds lightning quick, that’s because it was.

It was the fastest in the NFL.

But in 2025, he threw less than 30% of his passes within 2 seconds.

What Went Wrong in 2025?

In 2025, 25% of his passes were thrown over 3 seconds after the snap, something he did not do on even 20% of his passes the prior two seasons.

His average time to throw increased considerably in 2025:

• 2023: 2.3 seconds
• 2024: 2.3 seconds
• 2025: 2.6 seconds

Still fast, but much closer to the NFL average of 2.77 seconds than the prior few years.

And when he held onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, his passes were a disaster in 2025:

• -0.18 EPA/attempt (#29)
• 34% success rate (#27)
• 6.5 Y/A (#35)
• 56% completion rate (#21)

All of these marks were significantly worse than in prior years.

But Tagovailoa also struggled when throwing fast in 2025.

While his completion rate and yard per attempt average were both still in the top 10.

The issue was interceptions.

He threw 7 on quick passes, resulting in the #4 highest interception rate in the NFL.

With a +0.11 EPA/attempt (#19) and 49% success rate (#18) on passes with 2.5 seconds in 2025, the quick passing engine that drove the Dolphins offense in the first few years of McDaniel’s time with Tagovailoa ran out of steam.

And without that dependable, near automatic production, Tagovailoa was lost as he struggled to play out of structure and without regular timing.

Was McDaniel's Scheme Hiding Tagovailoa's Weaknesses All Along?

Which leaves us with questions as the Dolphins part ways with their quarterback.

Over the last two years, on passes where he holds the ball longer than 2.5 seconds (keep in mind the NFL average is 2.77 seconds), Tagovailoa's performance:

• -0.15 EPA/attempt (#33)
• 34.5% success rate (#34)
• 6.7 Y/A (#42)
• 58% completion rate (#18)
• 3.8% interception rate (#37)

Could some of this poor production be the result of the concussions Tagovailoa sustained?

His desire to get the ball out quicker, and when it's not there, entering fight-or-flight mode and panicking?

Or could it be that he became so comfortable in McDaniel's quick-timing scheme that he was less comfortable operating outside of it?

Tagovailoa and McDaniel were solid when working together for many years.

Unfortunately for Miami, despite that solid production, they didn't produce enough on-field success.

Tagovailoa might land in a spot with a better pass blocking offensive line, so he could have a better support system up front.

But he won't have the timing-based passing offense of McDaniel.

It was an offense, during Tagovailoa's time, that used the #1 highest rate of pre-snap motion, the #3 highest rate of play action, and the #1 fastest time to throw.

It's extremely unlikely any landing spot would provide anything close to delivering a system like that.

Which means a quarterback who has struggled more the last couple of years when holding the ball will inevitably find himself in an offense that requires him to hold the ball longer than he did in Miami.

As Miami looks to start over and is willing to eat an NFL-record $99.2 million in dead cap to do so, other teams interested in Tagovailoa must try to answer these very same questions.

Kyler Murray's Deep Ball Problem

If quarterbacks need to be able to throw the ball downfield, Kyler Murray is one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Murray has traditionally struggled massively to throw a football downfield, and 2025 added to that legacy.

On passes 20+ yards downfield, out of 42 qualifying QBs, Murray ranked #39 in accuracy and #38 in completion rate.

Let’s examine Murray’s NFL rank over the last four years by depth.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#36 of 36 in completion rate (21%)
#36 of 36 in EPA/attempt (-0.18)
#36 of 36 in Y/A (7.5)

How about 20+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#40 of 46 in completion rate (30%)
#45 of 46 in EPA/attempt (-0.16)
#42 of 46 in Y/A (8.7)

How about 15+ yards downfield?

Murray ranks:

#42 of 51 in completion rate (38%)
#51 of 51 in EPA/attempt (+0.05)
#47 of 51 in Y/A (9.3)

We really only need to stop there, because throwing the ball less than 15 yards isn’t really considered taking “a shot downfield,” but to just put a bow on the analysis, let’s look at all passes over 10 yards downfield.

I raised the cutoff to 175 attempts to further reduce the pool. Murray ranks:

#36 of 43 in completion rate (43%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#41 of 43 in Y/A (8.8)

These aren’t just bad numbers. These are terrible numbers.

There are 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

Murray doesn’t rank in the top 32 throwing downfield, regardless of whether your definition is 10 yards, 15 yards, 20 yards, or 25 yards.

As Murray becomes one of the most talked about quarterbacks in trade discussions, it’s hard to imagine where a quarterback with a massive limitation of throwing the football downfield can become a franchise QB that actually wins meaningful games for teams.

Kyler Murray's Extensive Injury History

He’s not getting better.

He’s getting older and suffering more injuries as the years go by.

Since 2020, Murray has made it through just one of five seasons healthy.

His injury record is extensive:

2025: played only 5 of 17 games after suffering a Lisfranc-type mid-foot sprain
2023: played only 8 of 17 games due to rehabbing his prior-year ACL injury
2022: suffered a hamstring strain, missed multiple games, then tore his ACL and meniscus
2021: suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain and missed multiple games

The Indoor/Outdoor Factor: Murray's Hidden Weakness

And then there’s the conflating factor in his inefficiency throwing downfield:

Murray has played only 12 of 41 games (29%) outdoors since 2022.

Due to quirks about when in the season he has been injured, 23 of the 41 games he has played have been at home.

He has played only 18 road games to 23 home games, and 6 of the 18 road games have been in domes.

Ranking QBs since 2022 just in outdoor games, let’s again run through the exercise on passing downfield.

On 25+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#47 of 47 in completion rate (13%)
#46 of 47 in EPA/attempt (-0.49)
#47 of 47 in Y/A (4.1)

On 20+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#38 of 43 in completion rate (30%)
#43 of 43 in EPA/attempt (-0.35)
#42 of 43 in Y/A (7.7)

On 15+ yard passes, Murray ranks:

#35 of 40 in completion rate (38%)
#36 of 40 in EPA/attempt (+0.08)
#40 of 40 in Y/A (8.9)

Not only are these numbers throwing downfield bad, but Murray also hasn’t even played in many outdoor games with harsh climates.

Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played JUST ONE GAME with a kickoff temperature less than 45 degrees (loss in Carolina on 12/22/24).

Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played JUST ONE GAME with winds of 15 mph or more (loss in Buffalo on 9/8/24).

Since 2022, out of 41 total games played, Murray has played JUST ONE GAME with any form of precipitation at all (loss in Green Bay on 10/13/24).

The Chiefs Were Historically Unlucky in 2025

What if I told you the Chiefs had one of the unluckiest seasons in modern NFL history?

Their opponents made 97% of field goals against them last year.

31 of 32 field goals!

The Chiefs'opponent make rate was the #2 highest against any team in well over a decade, with a minimum of at least 30 attempts.

Opposing kickers’ ability to bang through field goals played a large role in sending the Chiefs into a tailspin last season.

They won just one of seven games that were decided by 3 or fewer points last year.

Seven games decided by a field goal.

The Chiefs lost six of them.

And these weren’t just one kick at the end to win it, either.

Six Chiefs Losses Decided by Field Goals

The Broncos went 5 for 5 in field goals, including making a 54-yard field goal to tie the game with 4 minutes to go and then kicking the walkoff game winner to win by 3.

The Raiders went 4 for 4 in field goals, including a 60-yard game-winner with less than 10 seconds left to win by 2.

The Chargers, trailing the entire game, kicked a field goal to tie the game at 13 and then the game-winning field goal with less than a minute left from 49 yards to win by 3.

They went 3 for 3 on the night.

Likewise, the Cowboys went 3 for 3 against the Chiefs and won by 3 points.

The Eagles won by 3 with their kicker going 2 for 2 on field goals over 50 yards, making from 58 and 51 yards.

The Jaguars won by 3 with their kicker going 1 for 1, banging home another field goal longer than 50 yards.

All told, in these 6 losses decided by 3 points or less, Chiefs opponents went 20 for 20, including 9 for 9 on attempts of 49 yards or more and 3 for 3 on attempts of 55 yards or more.

Chiefs 2026 Outlook

There are a lot of things the Chiefs have room to improve upon in 2026.

They had 119 penalties, seventh most in the NFL.

They were one of four teams to not score a single return TD on special teams or defense.

They recovered only four fumbles, second-fewest in the NFL.

They need to improve in these areas, but they should fare better in 2026 simply by pure regression.

One thing that surely will go the Chiefs' way next season is the rate at which opponents make field goals against them.

That alone should turn many of those one-score losses into wins.

Explore Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Odds:

The Chiefs are not favored to win the AFC West for the first time since 2018.

• 2026 AFC West Odds
• 2026 AFC Odds
• Super Bowl 61 Odds

Why the Vikings Removed One of Their Best Offensive Concepts

In 2024, 50% of Sam Darnold‘s passes for the Vikings offense were thrown between the numbers.

That ranked #19 highest of 47 QBs.

In 2025, the Vikings intentionally removed most of their over-the-middle passing concepts to keep the “line of sight as simple as possible” for J.J. McCarthy, according to The Athletic.

As such, only 38% of McCarthy's attempts were thrown between the numbers, which ranked #42 of 45 QBs.

When he did throw these passes, the results were quite poor.

On passes thrown between the numbers in 2025, McCarthy ranked:

#43 in accuracy rate
#43 in completion rate (67%)
#42 in EPA per attempt (-0.01)
#37 in success rate (47%)

His interception rate of 7.1% was the highest in the NFL.

His TD to INT ratio of 0.7:1 was #42 in the NFL.

How McCarthy Compared to Darnold

This drop-off in production was substantial compared to what the Vikings received from Darnold over the middle of the field in 2024.

On Darnold's passes thrown between the numbers in 2024, he ranked:

#4 in yards per attempt (9.4)
#5 in success rate (60%)
#10 in EPA per attempt (+0.34)
#14 in completion rate (77%)

Unlike McCarthy, Darnold's interception rate of 2.0% was well below average, and his TD per INT ratio of 2.8:1 was #8 in the NFL.

2025 J.J. McCarthy vs. 2024 Sam Darnold Between the Numbers Throws

Vikings Deemphasized One of Their Best Concepts

Another critical distinction to make is that when comparing the Vikings' passing efficiency over the last two seasons is that they were MUCH better when passing between the numbers than outside the numbers.

Whether looking at yards per attempt, success rate, or EPA per attempt, the Vikings offense delivered more efficiency between the numbers in 2024 than outside the numbers.

Thus, when the Vikings replaced Darnold with McCarthy, it had a massive impact.

The best part of their passing attack (passing between the numbers) was removed.

When they did throw between the numbers, they received near NFL-worst efficiency from McCarthy.

And it was so clearly an issue that the staff took note and intentionally removed these concepts from the offense, those same concepts that led them to a 14-3 record in 2024 with Darnold.

Was This a McCarthy Problem?

Let's now discuss a few fascinating points of context surrounding this.

First, it appears the Vikings removed these concepts only in McCarthy's games.

Carson Wentz threw 47% of attempts between the numbers, and Max Brosmer threw 52% of attempts between the numbers.

McCarthy was down at 38%, well below the NFL average of 48%.

Additionally, the Vikings' schedule of pass defenses in 2025 offers some intrigue.

Minnesota played a league-average schedule of pass defenses last year.

They ranked #15 in strength of opposing pass defenses faced.

For the season, they played only seven games against teams with top-12 ranked pass defenses.

• Week 4 vs. #12 Steelers
• Week 5 vs. #2 Browns
• Week 7 vs. #3 Eagles
• Week 8 vs. #9 Chargers
• Week 9 vs. #11 Lions
• Week 13 vs. #8 Seahawks
• Week 17 vs. #11 Lions

Amazingly, McCarthy started ONLY ONE of these games, seeming to start games against poor pass defenses but missing those against his toughest opponents.

Vikings 2025 Pass Defense Strength of Schedule

Minnesota held him out from Week 3 through Week 8 with an ankle injury.

There was debate as to whether McCarthy could have returned before Week 9, but holding him out those extra few games allowed him to miss games in Week 7 against the #3 Eagles and Week 8 against the #9 Chargers.

After a bad loss to the Packers in which McCarthy completed only 12 passes, threw 2 interceptions, and averaged 4.6 Y/A, he was put into delayed concussion protocol.

He missed the next game, which happened to be against the #8 pass defense of the Seahawks.

McCarthy also missed the Week 17 game against the Lions after suffering a hand injury in Week 16 against the lowly Giants.

He returned to play in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Packers, who were resting starters to prepare for the playoffs.

What's Next for the Vikings Offense in 2026?

The reason to dive into this detail is that McCarthy was arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL passing over the middle of the field last year, to the point that the team altered the offense.

And that was despite not facing ANY strong pass defenses.

If the coaching staff was aware and concerned about his inability to be productive over the middle of the field, it begs the question of what happens to the offense moving forward.

Clearly, as demonstrated in 2024, over-the-middle passing concepts are something this staff likes to use and builds the offense around to a degree (considering they were used above average and with great results in 2024).

The staff will have to either figure out how to offset that lost production by getting McCarthy to excel at passing to other areas of the field, or McCarthy will have to make massive strides in 2026.

What a GREAT Way to Close the Season!

We closed the 2025-26 NFL season with a HUGE Super Bowl night for our subscribers:

• We WON our 1.25 Unit Play
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It wasn't the most exciting Super Bowl to watch, but that was perfect for our clients since we were cashing bets left and right throughout the game.

All told, we won 5.42 units for clients, swept all of our big bets, and produced our single most profitable game of the year!

It has been another incredible season, and I want to say THANK YOU for all the support you've shown throughout the year as a subscriber.

This is a VERY high-stress job, and I take it very seriously.

There aren't many services out there with the track record of delivering consistent success, and I pour every ounce of myself into delivering for you each season.

I still have to pinch myself when I look at the records below, because I focus on all the details of getting every individual recommendation correct.

Zooming out, it seems unreal to have put together a season that included going 11-0 (100%) on my strongest bets and 17-3 (85%) on my weekly best bets!

An absolutely insane season that I don't think many services could ever claim.

Warren Sharp Betting Records, Full 2025 Season:

• 11-0 (100%) on 1.25+ Unit Plays
• 17-3 (85%) on our Best Bet of the Week
• 40-12 (77%) on Elevated Props
• 20-11 (65%) on Computer Totals
• 19 of 22 (86%) Winning Weeks for Clients

A $100 bettor won $14,154 following my betting recommendations this season!

This was my 20th season providing betting recommendations for the NFL, and it was one of the MOST PROFITABLE years I've ever had for subscribers.

It's so satisfying sitting back the day after the Super Bowl, looking over the profit I produced for you guys yesterday, as well as over the course of the entire season.

I hope you enjoyed the ride!

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As you know, I'm all about football.

I know some services will try to additionally sell you on basketball or baseball, but not me.

I'll be attending the NFL Combine and am looking forward to catching up with various NFL coaches.

We'll be starting our work on the 2026 Draft class, and I'll begin working on research for my 2026 Football Preview book.

The next few months of work become far less stressful, and I'll slip in a short vacation along the way, but it's just such a relief to close out a great year with a great Super Bowl result.

Thank you again for being a subscriber during this historic year.

I can't wait to continue sharing my research as we start to get ready for 2026.

I wish you the best of health, and I'm looking forward to seeing you on board next football season!

If you've already purchased our Postseason or Super Bowl package and are logged into the site, simply scroll down to download Warren Sharp's 50+ page Super Bowl 60 Report.

Not a member and want to read this report plus gain access to Warren's Super Bowl 60 betting recommendations?

• Use coupon code SB60 for 50% off our Super Bowl Package.

A note from Warren Sharp:

I’ve spent the last 8 days dissecting this matchup from an offensive perspective for each team, like I do for the teams and offensive coordinators I consult with.

Because defense is so reactive and depends on what an offense does, it’s often useful to first focus on what an offense wants to do and then see whether those things will succeed against a defensive weakness.

This is a unique matchup, however, in that both head coaches are smart, defensive minds.

I found myself focusing more on what they are likely to do to attack the opposing offense, and whether they will tweak anything to improve the odds of success.

Instead of trying to provide a complete picture of every single aspect of this game at a surface level, I decided this year to dig deeper into the biggest questions I had from a philosophical and schematic approach after my initial review of the game.

Because I think several critical keys to this matchup will have ripple effects throughout the rest of the game.

Super Bowl 60 Report: Full Analysis & Breakdown of Patriots vs. Seahawks

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

The Patriots are underdogs in Super Bowl 60, but that does not mean all hope is lost.

New England has an MVP-caliber quarterback and an outstanding defense.

If they hope to win the trophy, though, they need to focus on three key areas.

The Importance of Early Down Success Rate

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you know EDSR stands for Early Down Success Rate, an efficiency metric I created.

It isn’t simply success rate of first and second downs, but it does look at efficiency on the early downs.

What you may remember from prior Super Bowl write-ups is that it is the single MOST CORRELATED STATISTIC TO WINNING IN THE POSTSEASON that exists over the last 10 years.

The first thing we do is strip out the huge favorites/dogs, and stipulate that games must be lined within 7 points of pick.

That will give a more level playing field to evaluate the teams, and that’s also what we have in this game.

Next, teams with a 2+ turnover edge cover 81% of their postseason games.

So, to determine the efficiency of a stat, it’s best to strip them out.

Let's focus only on games where one team doesn't have a 2+ turnover advantage:

Teams with the better EDSR in these games have covered 73% of their games in the postseason since 2007 (49-18 ATS).

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Patriots Early Down Success Rate:

Offensively, the Patriots ranked #3.

• They played 1 game vs. top-10 EDSR defenses
  • #8 Browns
• They played 5 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR defenses
  • #30 Jets twice, #28 Bengals, #24Titans, #23 Saints

Defensively, the Patriots ranked #21.

• They played 3 games vs. top-10 EDSR offenses
  • #6 Bills twice, #7 Falcons
• They played 7 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR offenses
  • #30 Jets twice, #29 Titans, #28 Browns, #27 Raiders, #26 Bucs, #25 Steelers

Click here for the Seahawks' three keys to winning Super Bowl 60

Three Keys to Patriots Winning Super Bowl 60

• Drake Maye Against Zone
• Two Running Back Sets
• Under Center Passing

Drake Maye Against Zone

Drake Maye has been beyond good vs most coverages this year.

He’s been outstanding against man coverage.

In fact, he has been so good against man coverage, particularly to close out the season and then again in the Divisional Round against the Texans, that the massively man-heavy Broncos (#2 highest man rate in the NFL) played only 3 total snaps of man coverage against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.

Instead, they shifted to zone coverage on 85% of snaps!

In the game against the Texans in the Divisional Round, Maye had the following splits:

Vs. Man: +0.26 EPA/attempt, 42% success rate, 10.0 Y/A, 70% completion rate (12 dropbacks)
Vs. Zone: -0.58 EPA/attempt, 22% success rate, 5.3 Y/A, 60% completion rate (18 dropbacks)

Denver absolutely didn’t want to use man coverage at anything close to their usual rates against Maye in the Conference Championship.

And that turned out to be a smart move.

Once again, Maye struggled against the zone that Denver played, recording -0.49 EPA per attempt, an 18% success rate, 4.3 Y/A, and a 50% completion rate on the 22 dropbacks that Denver played zone.

Are these last two games against zone an anomaly for Maye, or has he played better against zone this season because he hasn’t played very many good defenses that play zone?

Including the playoffs, Maye has played four top-10 pass defenses this year.

One of them plays the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL.

The other three teams (Buffalo twice, Houston, and Denver) saw outstanding success in zone.

In fact, if you look at Maye this entire season, he’s averaged negative EPA in only five games, and four of them were against the only good defenses that played zone against him at higher rates.

Overall

Vs. BUF: -0.03 EPA/attempt, 43% success rate, 8.7 Y/A, 70% completion rate

Vs. HOU: -0.24 EPA/attempt, 28% success rate, 6.6 Y/A, 59% completion rate

Vs. DEN: -0.56 EAP/attempt, 19% success rate, 4.1 Y/A, 48% completion rate

Man Coverage

TOTAL MAN: +0.26 EPA/attempt, 50% success rate, 8.8 Y/A, 62% completion rate

—-

Vs. BUF: +0.40 EPA/attempt, 59% success rate, 9.2 Y/A, 63% completion rate (17 attempts)

Vs. HOU: +0.26 EPA/attempt, 42% success rate, 10.0 Y/A, 70% completion rate (12 attempts)

Vs. DEN: -0.54 EPA/attempt, 33% success rate, 3.0 Y/A, 33% completion rate (3 attempts)

Zone Coverage

TOTAL ZONE: -0.35 EPA/attempt, 29% success, 6.3 Y/A, 64% comp

—

Vs. BUF: -0.18 EPA/attempt, 38% success rate, 7.8 Y/A, 72% completion rate (42 attempts)

Vs. HOU: -0.58 EPA/attempt, 22% success rate, 5.3 Y/A, 60% completion rate (18 attempts)

Vs. DEN: -0.49 EPA/attempt, 18% success rate, 4.3 Y/A, 50% completion rate (22 attempts)

The argument could be made that those teams would have stood to benefit by pivoting EVEN MORE into zone coverage.

That likely won’t be an issue for the Seahawks.

Seattle checks the box of being one of the few top-10 pass defenses that Maye will face in 2025.

But what makes them more unique than the Bills, Texans, or Broncos is that the Seahawks predominantly play zone coverage far more than those other teams.

So Maye will need to reverse this trend against zone against one of the best zone pass defenses in the league for the Patriots to come out on top.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
• Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

A $100 bettor has won $13,069 following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off HERE.

Two Running Back Sets

The Patriots’ bye was Week 14.

Like any good team, they made adjustments.

One thing they did was increase their usage of 2-RB sets.

Weeks 1-14: 26% 2-RB sets
Since: 38% 2-RB sets (+12%)

This shift came via a massive reduction in 12 personnel, from 23% to 9.5%, and a slight drop in 11 personnel from 49% to 45%.

This shift wasn’t just running out the clock in the fourth quarter in their playoff wins or in their last couple games of the season.

On early downs in the first three quarters of games only:

Weeks 1-14: 25% 2-RB sets
Since: 37% 2-RB sets (+12%)

Naturally, the change was felt most on run plays.

On runs only (early downs, quarters 1-3):

Weeks 1-14: 27% 2-RB sets
Since: 49% 2-RB sets (+22%)

On all runs, all game:

Weeks 1-14: 36% 2-RB sets
Since: 56% 2-RB sets (+20%)

Running the ball with 2 RBs as often as the Patriots do is unique.

The NFL average is 18%, and the Patriots are up at 56% down the stretch.

This could be a benefit because it’s unusual and different to defend, but the Seahawks play the 49ers often, who live in 2-RB sets with FB Kyle Juszczyk.

The last three defenses the Patriots faced in the playoffs were the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.

Take a guess as to the teams in the regular season that faced the fewest runs from 2+ RB sets?

• #1 fewest – Chargers
• #3 fewest – Broncos
• #4 fewest – Texans

The Patriots’ multi-RB sets were a bit of a change to what those teams typically are forced to defend.

That will not be the case for the Seahawks, and could prove to be a pivotal aspect of this contest.

Under Center Passing

If the Patriots use play action, 75% of the time it’s from under center.

That’s because the Patriots use some of the highest rates of under center in the NFL when passing the ball.

The Patriots align under center on 32.9% of their dropbacks, #7 highest of any team.

Here’s the problem when using such a strategy against the Seahawks: They will pressure you quickly.

During the regular season, the Seahawks faced 78 dropbacks from under center, almost exactly the league average (76.4).

Under center dropbacks naturally average longer time to throw (3.15 seconds) than shotgun dropbacks (2.56 seconds), for obvious reasons.

Against the Seahawks this year, QBs when dropping back from under center averaged only 2.98 seconds to throw, which was the #6 fastest against any defense.

And DESPITE that faster-than-average dropback, QBs were pressured on 46% of dropbacks (#3), well above the NFL average (36%).

Because of the faster release and increased pressure, these under-center pass attempts averaged just 4.1 air yards(!), #1 shortest in the NFL and HALF the NFL average of 8.2 air yards for under-center dropbacks.

These dropbacks also averaged the #3 highest INT rate (4.2%), #7 lowest TD rate (2.8%), and #5 highest sack rate (9%).

Because of the low air yardage, low TD rate, and high sack + INT rate, those under-center dropbacks averaged -0.08 EPA, #5 worst in the NFL.

This doesn’t sound great for the Patriots.

However, there were certain teams that were able to have INCREDIBLE amounts of success with under-center passing against the Seahawks, and it came as a result of keeping their QBs clean.

If the Patriots can keep Drake Maye protected and scheme up some play-action looks from under center, it could be their key to pulling an upset.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

The Seahawks are the favorites in Super Bowl 60, but they cannot rest on their laurels.

Let's look at the three keys to the Seahawks taking home the trophy on Super Bowl Sunday.

The Importance of Early Down Success Rate

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you know EDSR stands for Early Down Success Rate, an efficiency metric I created.

It isn’t simply success rate of first and second downs, but it does look at efficiency on the early downs.

What you may remember from prior Super Bowl write-ups is that it is the single MOST CORRELATED STATISTIC TO WINNING IN THE POSTSEASON that exists over the last 10 years.

The first thing we do is strip out the huge favorites/dogs, and stipulate that games must be lined within 7 points of pick.

That will give a more level playing field to evaluate the teams, and that’s also what we have in this game.

Next, teams with a 2+ turnover edge cover 81% of their postseason games.

So, to determine the efficiency of a stat, it’s best to strip them out.

Let's focus only on games where one team doesn't have a 2+ turnover advantage:

Teams with the better EDSR in these games have covered 73% of their games in the postseason since 2007 (49-18 ATS).

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Seahawks Early Down Success Rate:

Offensively, the Seahawks ranked #8.

• They played 5 games vs. top-10 EDSR defenses
  • #3 Texans, #4 Rams twice, #5 Vikings, #10 Jaguars
• They played 7 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR defenses
  • #31 Commanders, #27 Colts, #26 Cardinals twice, #25 49ers twice, #24 Titans

Defensively, the Seahawks ranked #1.

• They played 7 games vs. top-10 EDSR offenses
  • #1 Rams twice, #2 49ers twice, #4 Colts, #7 Falcons, #10 Jaguars
• They played 5 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR offenses
  • #29 Titans, #26 Bucs, #25 Steelers, #24 Texans, #23 Vikings

Click here for the Patriots' three keys to winning Super Bowl 60

Three Keys to Seahawks Winning Super Bowl 60

• Early Down Success
• Sam Darnold Under Pressure
• Throwing to Running Backs

Early Down Success

In the Klint Kubiak offense with Sam Darnold at quarterback, it’s absolutely no secret that the Seahawks’ goal is to run the ball often and generate shots from play action.

This is not a pass-first team by any stretch.

Seattle has the #1 highest run rate (49%) over the course of the entire game.

In non-reactionary play calls, aka offensive intent from the play caller, on first half early downs, the Seahawks’ 51% run rate ranks #4 highest in the NFL.

This seems like it could set up a problem for the Seahawks.

They are the #4 highest run rate team (51%) on first half early downs, and they are facing a Patriots run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL with Milton Williams.

Other teams have tried running the ball against the Patriots on first half early downs, and it obviously hasn’t worked out for them.

So, will the Seahawks “do what we do” and run the ball at a high rate in the first quarter and into the entire first half?

Or, could Kubiak pivot into a far more balanced approach out of the gate in an attempt to avoid first down runs that fail and set up the Seahawks in second and obvious pass situations?

It’s hard to guess.

But I did parse out the three strongest run defenses the Seahawks played this year aside from the Rams, a very familiar opponent:

• The Texans
• The Jaguars
• The Colts

All three ranked in the top 10 against the run this year.

In the first half of those three games, all of which were Seahawks wins by between 2 and 8 points, Seattle had a 58% pass rate on early downs in the first half.

That’s vastly higher than their 49% first half early down run rate over the course of the entire season, which ranked #4 highest in the NFL.

In fact, a 58% pass rate on first half early downs would have ranked #11 in the NFL this year.

Kubiak has shown his ability to adapt.

If he does and finds success on early downs against the formidable Patriots run defense, the Seahawks should be in good shape to win this game.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
• Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

A $100 bettor has won $13,069 following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off HERE.

Sam Darnold Under Pressure

How Sam Darnold handles the blitz and pressure that New England is looking to bring surely will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game, particularly if the Seahawks aren’t able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like.

The Seahawks have not played very many defenses this year that blitz at an above average rate.

The NFL average blitz rate is 26%, and the Seahawks played only five games out of 19 total against teams that blitzed at a 27% rate or higher for the season:

#1 Vikings (48%)
#2 Falcons (35%)
#5 Bucs (31%)
#7 Steelers (30%)
#12 Colts (28%)

Minnesota, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis all blitzed Darnold at above average rates, while the Bucs went the opposite direction and blitzed at below average rates (24%).

Darnold in those five games when blitzed:

36 of 60 (60%), 8.1 Y/A, 5:4 TD:INT, -0.01 EPA/attempt, 52% success, 44% pressure rate, 9% sack rate

Darnold in those five games when the defenses decided not to blitz:

70 of 99 (71%), 8.1 Y/A, 4:0 TD:INT, +0.27 EPA/attempt, 52% success, 25% pressure rate, 3% sack rate

Patriots de facto DC Zak Kuhr recently stated his blitz rates are on a matchup basis.

As a result, he is trying not to tip his hand as to how he will approach this game with his blitz rate.

Will it be #1 of all teams like it’s been thus far in the postseason?

Or will it be #23, as it was the first eight weeks of the season?

My guess is he will try to get pressure with four, and if that doesn’t work, he’ll go right back to blitzing in order to get pressure on Darnold.

After all, Sam Darnold has some of the largest splits in the NFL with vs. without pressure of any quarterback.

Throwing to Running Backs

On the surface, like the rest of the Patriots defense, New England is solid against passes to running backs.

On designed offense to RBs (early downs, first three quarters), the Patriots RB-pass defense ranks:

#7 in Y/A
#13 in success rate
#6 in EPA

This is VERY similar to what they rank against WRs on these same downs:

#10 in Y/A
#13 in success
#8 in EPA

The difficulty in evaluating the Patriots pass defense is that they have played, by far, the #1 easiest schedule of passing attacks.

In terms of RB-passing offenses, the Patriots played:

#32 Bengals
#30 Dolphins twice
#29 Browns
#28 Raiders
#25 Saints
#24 Titans
#23 Ravens

That’s five games against bottom-five RB pass offenses and eight of 17 total games against bottom-10 RB pass offenses.

New England played a few top-eight RB pass offenses:

Falcons
Steelers
Bucs

Against Bijan Robinson, they gave up 50 yards on 8 catches.

Against Jaylen Warren, they gave up 34 yards on 5 catches and another 10 yards on 1 catch to Kenneth Gainwell.

So, like many other Patriots defensive passing stats, it’s hard to really know what we’re going to get here from the Seahawks RB passing game.

We know the Patriots haven’t played many good RB passing attacks, and against the only good ones they played with their RB1s, they gave up 50 and 44 receiving yards to the Falcons and Steelers RBs.

I believe it is in the Seahawks’ best interest to attack frequently with Kenneth Walker out of the backfield.

That will be a better use of Walker as a ball carrier than running into the Patriots defensive line.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

Sam Darnold's Passing Splits: Red Zone vs. Outside Red Zone

Look at Sam Darnold’s passing splits.

Outside the red zone:

#11 in EPA/attempt (+0.11)
#4 in success rate (51%)
#6 in first down rate (37%)
#9 in completion rate (69%)

Inside the red zone:

#32 in EPA/attempt (-0.32)
#32 in success rate (34%)
#30 in first down rate (28%)
#19 in completion rate (58%)

Red Zone Accuracy Breakdown

In these high-leverage situations, Darnold’s accuracy goes to hell.

Darnold’s accuracy outside the red zone: #3 of 36 QBs

Darnold’s accuracy inside the red zone: #27 of 36 QBs

Something has to give in this matchup.

The Patriots' red zone pass defense has been shockingly terrible against terrible quarterbacks.

Sam Darnold has been a terrible quarterback in the red zone this year.

Whoever steps up in this particular battle will go a long way toward winning the war.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
• Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

A $100 bettor has won $13,069 following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off HERE.

Seahawks Offensive Game Plan for Super Bowl 60 Success

When Sam Darnold is being kept on schedule, asked to pass on early downs, and plays with a lead, he’s been outstanding this year.

But when he’s been asked to perform when the moment matters most, he’s struggled.

I’m talking red zone vs. non-red zone and early down vs. third down.

We addressed the red zone, so now let’s address early downs and third downs.

Why Early Down Efficiency Is Critical for Seattle

Early Downs:

#5 in EPA/attempt (+0.15)
#4 in success rate (50%)
#1 in Y/A (9.0)
#5 in completion rate (71%)
#4 in accuracy
#5 in first down rate (35%)

Third Downs:

#22 in EPA/attempt (-0.15)
#8 in success rate (42%)
#22 in Y/A (7.0)
#18 in completion rate (59%)
#18 in accuracy
#12 in first down rate (38%)

The Patriots blew out the 49ers in the Divisional Round, so there wasn’t an opportunity for Darnold to be hyper-stressed in any critical third-down situations.

But he did play outstanding against the Rams on third down in the NFC Championship, going 6 of 9 and converting 60% of dropbacks into first downs while averaging +0.83 EPA per attempt.

It was one of Darnold’s best games of his career, so how much of that is repeatable against a lesser-known opponent like the Patriots rather than the familiar opponent of the Rams?

That remains to be seen.

Keeping Darnold On Schedule: The Key to Victory

If the Seahawks are able to play efficient offense on early downs and bypass more third downs, it will immensely help the team by avoiding putting Darnold in those high-leverage, third-down situations.

So, avoiding unproductive plays on early downs is vital, including running Kenneth Walker into brick walls for no gain on first downs (if the Patriots can limit the Seahawks run offense).

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

Patriots Man Coverage Tendencies

In the postseason, the Patriots have played:

19% man coverage on first downs
30% man coverage on second downs
45% man coverage on third/fourth downs

This virtually mirrors what they did in the regular season:

#10 in rate of man on first down
#7 in rate of man on second down
#10 in rate of man on third/fourth downs

Overall, the Patriots rank #9 in rate of man coverage (28%) on all snaps this year.

Two things to realize:

First, we’re talking less than 30% of all passes, so while we can technically say “top 10,” the vast majority of passes they’re still playing zone.

Second, teams tend to adjust to their opponent.

The Patriots averaged 28% man on all snaps and 29% man on all dropbacks, but they had massive swings.

57% against the Bills in Week 15 and 47% against the Bills in Week 5, but as little as 24% against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round and as low as 10-14% in multiple games against teams like the Dolphins, Titans, and Browns.

Let’s discuss each of these scenarios.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
• Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

A $100 bettor has won $13,069 following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off HERE.

Patriots' Opponent-Specific Coverage Adjustments

While the Patriots average man coverage on 29% of pass dropbacks, they change massively from game to game.

High Man Coverage Games

Three games featured over 40% man coverage on pass dropbacks:

57% vs. the Bills Week 15
48% vs. the Jets Week 11
47% vs. the Bills Week 5

A commonality in these three games is an extremely mobile QB: Josh Allen twice and Justin Fields.

Low Man Coverage Games

Four games featured less than 20% man coverage on pass dropbacks:

11% vs. the Dolphins Week 2
13% vs. the Titans Week 7
14% vs. the Browns Week 8
17% vs. the Dolphins Week 18

One commonality in these games was QBs with low scramble rates: Tua Tagovailoa, Dillon Gabriel, Cam Ward, and Quinn Ewers.

The Patriots won three of four by comfortable margins, allowing them to play more zone late in the game.

But even if you look at only the first half of the game, three of the five lowest rates of man coverage in any game this year came in those matchups.

Why the Patriots Adjust Coverage Rates by Opponent

Another game that started out very similarly in the first half was the Week 9 game against the Falcons and Michael Penix Jr, who likewise has a very low scramble rate.

These QBs’ scramble rates ranked:

#39 – Tua Tagovailoa
#36 – Quinn Ewers
#34 – Cam Ward
#29 – Michael Penix Jr
#26 – Dillon Gabriel

The Patriots played far more zone this year against this quarterback archetype than against mobile QBs.

Where does Sam Darnold slot in?

Darnold’s 2.7% scramble rate ranks #38 in the NFL, just one spot above Tua’s 2.6%.

While obviously the Patriots could come up with any scheme, and Mike Vrabel has two weeks to prepare for this game, I am going to cut against the grain here.

Virtually everyone is discussing Christian Gonzalez vs. Jaxon Smith–Njigba and how Gonzalez can do manned up against JSN.

And they’re discussing the high rates of man coverage the Patriots play.

But I’m going to handicap this game based on my personal expectation that the Patriots play less man coverage than their #9 ranking on the season indicates.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

In the playoffs, the Patriots have been downright nasty with aggression led by a high blitz rate.

This wasn’t the way it was for the Patriots all season.

On the season, the Patriots’ blitz rate was down at 27.4%, which ranked #14 in the NFL.

And that was primarily because, over the first 8 weeks of the season, the Patriots’ blitz rate was down at 22.7%, which ranked #23.

However, from Week 9 to the end of the season, the Patriots’ blitz rate increased to 32.1%, #5 highest in the NFL.

In the playoffs, however, it’s been on an entirely different level:

• 41.3% blitz rate (#1)
• 50.0% pressure rate (#1)
• 22.3% hit rate (#1)

The Patriots have been dialing up heat left and right, even on early downs.

On early down dropbacks this postseason, their 42.4% blitz rate is #2, and their 48.2% early down pressure rate is, by far, #1 in the NFL.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

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• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

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How Sam Darnold handles the blitz and pressure that New England is looking to bring surely will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game, particularly if the Seahawks aren’t able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like.

The Seahawks have not played very many defenses this year that blitz at an above average rate.

The NFL average blitz rate is 26%, and the Seahawks played only 5 games out of 19 total against teams that blitzed at a 27% rate or higher for the season:

#1 Vikings (48%)
#2 Falcons (35%)
#5 Bucs (31%)
#7 Steelers (30%)
#12 Colts (28%)

Minnesota, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis all blitzed Darnold at above average rates, while the Bucs went the opposite direction and blitzed at below average rates (24%).

Darnold in those 5 games when blitzed:

36 of 60 (60%), 8.1 Y/A, 5:4 TD:INT, -0.01 EPA/attempt, 52% success, 44% pressure rate, 9% sack rate

Darnold in those 5 games when the defenses decided not to blitz:

70 of 99 (71%), 8.1 Y/A, 4:0 TD:INT, +0.27 EPA/attempt, 52% success, 25% pressure rate, 3% sack rate

Patriots de facto DC Zak Kuhr recently stated his blitz rates are on a matchup basis. As a result, he is trying not to tip his hand as to how he will approach this game with his blitz rate.

Will it be #1 of all teams like it’s been thus far in the postseason? Or will it be #23, as it was the first 8 weeks of the season?

My guess is he will try to get pressure with four, and if that doesn’t work, he’ll go right back to blitzing in order to get pressure on Darnold.

After all, Sam Darnold has some of the largest splits in the NFL with vs. without pressure of any quarterback.

Out of 36 qualifying QBs with 200+ attempts this year, Darnold’s ranks…

When kept clean:

#7 EPA per attempt (+0.32)
#1 Y/A (9.4)
#8 completion rate (75%)
#3 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (21%)
#15 INT rate (1.8%)

But when pressured:

#23 EPA per attempt (-0.40)
#12 Y/A (6.5)
#10 completion rate (52%)
#18 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (14%)
#31 INT rate (5.6%)

So, pressuring Darnold will be a priority for the Patriots. Will they need to blitz in order to record that pressure?

If the Patriots decide they need to blitz, this is what Darnold has done against the blitz the entire season (not just against top blitz rate teams as split out above).

When blitzed:

#16 EPA per attempt (+0.08)
#5 Y/A (8.9)
#23 completion rate (62%)
#9 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (20%)
#34 INT rate (4.8%)

When not blitzed:

#11 EPA per attempt (+0.07)
#3 Y/A (8.3)
#6 completion rate (70%)
#7 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (19%)
#21 INT rate (2.1%)

Darnold is worse when blitzed in completion rate and has a much higher interception rate. Most of the other stats are similar.

The focus is recording pressure, where the splits are far more dramatic.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

Over the course of the entire season, my metrics rank the Patriots with the #10 run defense despite playing the #14 best rushing attacks.

But it’s even better than that now with the return of Milton Williams, their stud defensive lineman.

Williams was healthy Week 1 through Week 11, and then he didn’t return until Week 18.

Look at the splits with Williams on vs. off the field this year.

Williams off the field:

• -0.08 EPA per rush (#11)
• 38% success rate (#11)
• 4.2 YPC (#13)
• 1.5 yards before contact per rush (#25)
• 19% stuff rate (#13)
• 7% explosive run rate (#15)

Williams on the field:

• -0.16 EPA per rush (#2)
• 34% success rate (#5)
• 3.1 YPC (#1)
• 0.64 yards before contact per rush (#1)
• 22% stuff rate (#1)
• 2% explosive run rate (#1)

The difference is massive.

On 151 RB-rushes with Williams on the field this year, only 1 run gained more than 12 yards (0.66%).

It was in the fourth quarter of a Week 10 game against the Bucs with just 2:33 remaining and the Patriots leading, when backup RB Sean Tucker came into the game and took a carry 18 yards.

During the games when Williams played, the Patriots did face a fair share of above average rushing attacks:

• Week 2, they held De’Von Achane to 30 yards on 11 carries for 2.7 YPC and a long of 9.
• Week 3, they held Jaylen Warren to 47 yards on 18 carries for 2.6 YPC and a long of 11.
• Week 4, they held Rico Dowdle to 32 yards on 9 carries for 3.6 YPC and a long of 10.
• Week 5, they held James Cook to 49 yards on 15 carries for 3.3 YPC and a long of 9.
• Week 9, they held Bijan Robinson to 46 yards on 12 carries for 3.8 YPC and a long of 15.
• Week 18, they held Jaylen Wright to 23 yards on 13 carries for 1.8 YPC and a long of 7.
• Last game, they held RJ Harvey to 37 yards on 13 carries for 2.8 YPC and a long of 9.

Those are the only games they played with Williams against top-15 rushing attacks, and that is how the lead RB performed for their opponents.

Statistically, the Seahawks rushing offense is WORSE than all of those rushing offenses.

None of those RBs cleared even 3.8 yards per carry, with most averaging far worse.

None of those RBs even hit 50 rushing yards in the entire game, with most totaling far worse.

Their other playoff games?

They held Woody Marks to 17 yards on 14 carries for 1.2 YPC and a long of 8.

They held Kimani Vidal to 31 yards on 11 carries for 2.8 YPC and a long of 10.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
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• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

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In the Klint Kubiak offense with Sam Darnold at quarterback, it’s absolutely no secret that the Seahawks’ goal is to run the ball often and generate shots from play action.

This is not a pass-first team by any stretch.

Seattle has the #1 highest run rate (49%) over the course of the entire game.

In non-reactionary play calls, aka offensive intent from the play caller, on first half early downs, the Seahawks’ 51% run rate ranks #4 highest in the NFL.

This seems like it could set up a problem for the Seahawks.

They are the #4 highest run rate team (51%) on first half early downs and are facing a Patriots run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL with Williams.

Other teams have tried running the ball against the Patriots on first half early downs, and it obviously hasn’t worked out for them.

So, will the Seahawks “do what we do” and run the ball at a high rate in the first quarter and into the entire first half?

It feels like the Arrested Development scene where Tobias, a therapist, proposed to his wife that they should explore having an open relationship to explore extramarital encounters, which he advised for some of his clients.

He pitched it as a way to improve their emotional relationship at the expense of their physical relationship.

His wife, Lindsay, asked him, “Well, did it work for those people?” To which Tobias replied, “Well, no. It never does. These people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might…. But… it might work for us.”

Or, could Kubiak pivot into a far more balanced approach out of the gate in an attempt to avoid first down runs that fail and set up the Seahawks in second and obvious pass situations?

It’s hard to guess.

But I did parse out the three strongest run defenses the Seahawks played this year aside from the Rams, a very familiar opponent:

The Texans
The Jaguars
The Colts

All three ranked in the top 10 against the run this year.

In the first half of those three games, all of which were Seahawks wins by between 2 and 8 points, Seattle had a 58% pass rate on early downs in the first half.

That’s vastly higher than their 49% first half early down run rate over the course of the entire season, which ranked #4 highest in the NFL.

In fact, a 58% pass rate on first half early downs would have ranked #11 in the NFL this year.

Kubiak has shown his ability to adapt.

However, this is a unique game, being that it’s the Super Bowl, and Mike Macdonald, a defensive-minded head coach, surely will have input over the Seahawks overall strategy, even on offense.

I honestly would be surprised (pleasantly) if the Seahawks came out with a pass first approach, but it doesn’t even need to be heavily pass first to help be more efficient.

It just cannot be as run-centric as they have averaged over the course of the season, particularly if those runs are not very efficient.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

When running the ball, the Patriots do so from 2-RB sets 44% of snaps, which ranked #4 in the NFL this year.

They use two running backs to run way more than 3+ WRs (33%) or 2+ TEs (37%).

In the playoffs, this has launched skyward.

They are using 2-RB sets to run the ball on 60% of snaps, nearly the same as the 49ers.

Even in the first half of playoff games, when they’re not simply looking to run out the clock, New England used:

49% 2 RBs to run (#3 of 14)
31% 3 WRs to run (#12 of 14)

The league average deployment to run the ball with RBs is:

42% 3+ WRs
44% 2+ TEs
16% 2 RBs

But the Patriots are:

29% 3+ WRs
36% 2+ TEs
43% 2 RBs

Naturally, the Seahawks have a lot of experience defending the 49ers’ 2-RB personnel deployment considering they play them at least twice a year.

And that’s bad news for the Patriots rushing attack.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
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• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

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Look at the Seahawks RB run defense ranks based on offensive personnel:

Vs. 3+ WRs:

#6 EPA/attempt (-0.14)
#4 success rate (33%)
#4 YPC (4.0)

Vs. 2 RBs:

#1 EPA/attempt (-0.29)
#10 success rate (37%)
#6 YPC (3.3)

While the Patriots prefer to run out of their 2-RB sets, they also pass out of them often.

They have the #4 most dropbacks in the NFL this season from 2-RB sets.

But, because the Seahawks are not matching your 2-RB set with base, like most of the rest of the NFL, Seattle is also able to defend passes out of 2-RB sets extremely well.

Vs. 2-RB dropbacks, the Seahawks defense ranks:

#1 in EPA (-0.83)
#4 in success rate (35%)
#3 in Y/A (4.9)

These numbers are substantially better than 3-WR sets, where Seattle allows -0.08 EPA per attempt, a 37% success rate, and 5.8 Y/A.

Seattle’s ranks top 11 in all three of those metrics against 3-WR set passes, including #1 in Y/A (5.8), so it’s not that they are “bad” against 3-WR sets.

It’s just that the dropbacks from 2-RB sets will be much less efficient when the Patriots use them, which is at a much higher rate than most teams.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

From Week 1 to Week 13, before the Patriots’ bye, when TreVeyon Henderson was on the field, the Patriots were 62% pass.

That was nearly the exact same as Rhamondre Stevenson (65% pass).

But coming out of that bye, the Patriots made an adjustment.

Their confidence level in Henderson with regards to pass protection had eroded.

As a result, the Patriots shifted their offense.

For the rest of the regular season:

Henderson on the field? 39% pass, 61% run

Henderson off the field? 67% pass, 33% run

Stevenson on the field? 72% pass, 28% run

This continued into the playoffs…with one exception.

During the game against the Texans, Stevenson was poked in the eye and missed a large chunk of the game.

Thus, Stevenson had to be on the field during some pass plays.

As a result, the offense has become slightly more predictable.

And it’s become decidedly worse with Henderson on the field.

If we remove the 2 blowouts against the Jets and Dolphins to close the regular season, focusing only on Week 15 against the Bills, Week 16 against the Ravens, and all 3 playoff games:

• Henderson ON the field: -0.14 EPA/play, 32.3% success rate, 4.3 yards/play
• Henderson OFF the field: +0.04 EPA/play, 38.9% success rate, 5.8 yards/play

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
• Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

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Let’s add some context to these numbers.

If these were full season ranks:

• EPA/play: #8 with Henderson OFF (+0.04), #29 with Henderson ON (-0.14)
• Yards/play: #7 with Henderson OFF (5.8), #32 with Henderson ON (4.3)
• Success: #26 with Henderson OFF (38.9%), #32 with Henderson ON (32.3%)

In other words, despite playing multiple elite defenses (Texans, Broncos, Chargers) in that span as well as the Ravens and Bills, the Patriots actually recorded top-10 offensive performances with Henderson off the field in both EPA per play and yards per play.

But they became the NFL’s worst offense, #32, in yards per play and success rate with Henderson on the field, and #29 in EPA per play.

That’s astonishing!

The numbers were bad with Henderson on, but it wasn’t just a run or pass thing.

During that span:

• Rushing with Henderson ON: -0.06 EPA/rush, 31% success rate, 27% early down success, 4.9 YPC
• Rushing with Henderson OFF: +0.01 EPA/rush, 37% success rate, 30% early down success, 4.5 YPC
• Passing with Henderson ON: -0.31 EPA/attempt, 34% success rate, 6.1 Y/A
• Passing with Henderson OFF: -0.03 EPA/attempt, 39% success rate, 7.7 Y/A

We’re talking night-and-day different efficiencies in virtually every stat, rushing or passing.

The only outlier was YPC, where Henderson had 14 rushes against the Bills for 3.3 YPC but also broke 65-yard and 52-yard runs to skew the overall YPC results.

Going by week through the playoffs:

AFC Championship:

• Henderson ON: -0.89 EPA/play, 0% success rate, -1.0 yds/play
• Henderson OFF: -0.11 EPA/play, 27% success rate, 3.5 yds/play

Divisional Round:

• Henderson ON: -0.32 EPA/play, 20% success rate, 2.8 yds/play
• Henderson OFF: -0.18 EPA/play, 31% success rate, 4.6 yds/play

Wild Card Round:

• Henderson ON: -0.35 EPA/play, 35% success rate, 3.9 yds/play
• Henderson OFF: +017 EPA/play, 45% success rate, 7.3 yds/play

The Patriots offense has been more predictable and MUCH worse with Henderson on the field, regardless of what the ultimate play call is.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

FREE to enter $2,000 Super Bowl Giveaway!

On February 6, we are running a special episode of the Sharp Angles Podcast called Sharp Tank.

Like the show Shark Tank, we’ll have a panel of Sharps, and you will have the opportunity to present us with your favorite prop bet for the Super Bowl.

Whoever submits our favorite prop will have a chance to win $2,000 in cash and prizes.

Here is how you enter:

• To enter, all you have to do is record the pitch of your favorite Super Bowl prop bet and why you like it.
• Because we are going to play the top 10 on the podcast, it needs to be in video format and 60 seconds or less.
• You need to pitch your prop in the form of: Hello Sharps, my favorite Super Bowl Prop is _______. I think it wins because ______.
• You must use the current line that is available for the prop and mention the book you are using.

Here is how you submit your video:

• Send your videos via email to support@sharpfootballanalysis.com

We will review all submissions and select the best ones to present on our special Super Bowl preview show on February 6.

All submissions must be entered by 7 p.m. ET on February 4.

Our panel of Sharps will share their thoughts on each prop, select our favorite bet, and if it hits during the Super Bowl, the winner will receive $500 cash!

PLUS the winner will get full website access for an ENTIRE YEAR (all Betting Recommendations + all Exclusive Articles, valued at over $1,500)!

You can begin submitting your favorite props in video form RIGHT NOW.

Good luck, and get ready for an action-packed week as we continue to get you ready for the Super Bowl!

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

If the Patriots lose this Super Bowl and it’s because, in part, Seattle increases their rate of Cover 6, then Seattle can thank Sean McDermott.

And McDermott will have gotten one final laugh.

The Bills play Cover 2 at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

Buffalo plays two-high on 49% of all dropbacks, #3 in the NFL (Seattle is #2 highest).

But of their two-high snaps, not many are in Cover 6.

The Bills play Cover 6 on just 11.6% of snaps when not playing the Patriots.

In Week 5, the Bills lost to Drake Maye playing Cover 6 on 11.8% of coverage snaps, right in line with their YTD average.

But for some reason, McDermott saw something and massively changed his deployment of coverages in the rematch.

In Week 15, McDermott used Cover 6 on 50% of dropbacks!

Not only was that by far out of character and most for the Bills of the season, but it was also most for any team against the Patriots to that point in the season.

And in that game, against Cover 6, Maye averaged -0.34 EPA/attempt, had a 23% success rate, threw for 4.3 Y/A, and had a 64% completion rate.

The Bills also were in Cover 6 when Maye threw an interception.

The choice helped the Bills win, handing the Patriots their first loss after 10 consecutive wins.

Here’s what the coverage looked like compared to prior coverages against the Patriots:

Well, after that game, opposing defensive coordinators started to take notice.

NOTE: Keep in mind, the average rate of Cover 6 is just 9.8% around the NFL.

Baltimore, the next game for the Patriots, jacked up their Cover 6 rate.

Baltimore normally plays the NFL’s lowest rate of two-high safeties (29%).

Entering the game, they had played Cover 6 on just 10.4% of snaps on the season.

Baltimore went 20.8% Cover 6 against the Patriots, DOUBLE their average.

The next two games were against bad teams playing for nothing (Week 17 against the Jets, Week 18 against the Dolphins).

But in the Wild Card game, the Chargers, who typically play Cover 6 on just 8.9% of dropbacks, played Cover 6 on 20% of dropbacks against the Patriots.

In the Divisional Round game, the Texans, who typically play Cover 6 on 13.7% of dropbacks, played it on 21.9% of dropbacks against the Patriots.

And in the Conference Championship game, the Broncos, who typically play Cover 6 on just 10.7% of dropbacks, played it on 23.1% of dropbacks.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

• 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
• Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
• All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
• All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

A $100 bettor has won $13,069 following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off HERE.

For some of these teams, the results in Cover 6 weren’t that great, but it was a coverage they weren’t accustomed to playing much during the season.

The results are not the point.

The trend is the point.

Teams saw what worked for the Bills.

This coverage nearly helped the Ravens upset the Patriots, despite the fact that Lamar Jackson was knocked from the game in the first half and Tyler Huntley was the quarterback for most of the game.

Against the Ravens' Cover 6, Maye was 2 of 8 for 11 yards, threw 1 interception, and took 2 sacks.

He averaged -0.90 EPA per attempt, a 20% success rate, 1.4 Y/A, and a 20% completion rate.

And the Ravens played two-high at the lowest rate in the NFL! And rarely play Cover 6!

A trend started by McDermott and copied by Baltimore.

Two games, back-to-back weeks.

And against Cover 6 in those two games, Maye was:

-0.58 EPA/attempt, 22% success rate, 3.1 Y/A, 9 of 19 (47% completion rate) with 2 INTs and 4 sacks along with a 61% pressure rate

Maye’s time-to-throw was an incredible 3.67 seconds!

He struggled massively with the coverage.

And the copycat began.

Here’s how Cover 6 has been utilized vs the Patriots this year:

Cover 6 has given Maye the most problems of any coverage.

He’s done well against zone this year overall, though the caveat here should be that most of these snaps were against bad pass defenses in general.

But look at what he’s done against Cover 6:

Vs. man: +0.21 EPA/attempt, 49% success rate, 9.2 Y/A, 64% completion rate
Vs. zone (non-Cover 6): +0.23 EPA/attempt, 52% success rate, 9.2 Y/A, 75% completion rate
Vs. Cover 6: -0.15 EPA/attempt, 38% success rate, 5.9 Y/A, 60% completion rate

Where does this rank for the season?

Out of 36 QBs with 200+ attempts, including the playoffs:

Vs. man: #7 in EPA, #4 in success rate, and #1 in Y/A
Vs. zone (non-Cover 6): #1 in EPA, #3 in success rate, and #1 in Y/A
Vs. Cover 6: #31 in EPA, #33 in success rate, and #32 in Y/A

Compare Maye’s stats against Cover 6 to all pass schemes he’s dropped back at least 40 times this year:

There are other interesting aspects to Maye when dropping back against Cover 6:

With less blitzing, Maye holds onto the ball for a LONG time, averaging 3.15 seconds before throwing with over 52% of his dropbacks lasting over 3 seconds.

He gets pressured at a 42.9% rate.

Between the very low Y/A of 5.8, the minuscule explosive pass rate (3.5%), and high sack rate (9.5%), Maye’s average net yards per attempt (includes sack yardage) is only 2.5!

During the regular season, his net yards per attempt average was 2.1.

2.1 net yards per attempt in 63 dropbacks against Cover 6!

That ranked #36 out of 36 qualifying QBs.

Taking things full circle without dwelling here, but of the 14 teams to make the playoffs, no team has played Cover 6 more than the Seahawks (25%).

During the regular season, the Seahawks played Cover 6 at the #3 highest rate.

Obviously, this Seattle defense plays more Cover 6 than any defense the Patriots have faced this season.

And given what opponents have looked to do against the Patriots, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Seattle lean even more into Cover 6 against Maye in the Super Bowl.

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60

Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!

Josh Allen admitted he lost the Bills' playoff game with 4 turnovers and took responsibility for it.

Buffalo lost 33-30, and Sean McDermott was fired less than 24 hours later.

The Bills' latest loss was different than most offensively, because it was a VERY atypical Allen playoff performance.

Unfortunately, allowing 33 points defensively was a very typical McDermott playoff defensive performance.

Even including last night’s terrible game, Allen in the playoffs since 2020, out of 28 qualifying QBs, ranks:

#1 success rate (50%)
#2 EPA per play (+0.14)
#3 completion rate (68%)

And yet the Bills have:

0 Conference Championships
0 Super Bowl appearances
0 Super Bowl wins

The reason is not Josh Allen.

Even in that last game, with 4 Allen turnovers, look at what the Bills defense gave up to the Bo Nix-led Broncos:

• 73-yard touchdown drive
• 70-yard touchdown drive
• 69-yard touchdown drive
• 75-yard field goal drive
• 64-yard field goal drive

27 of the Broncos' 33 points came on exceedingly long drives that had nothing to do with Allen’s turnovers.

It was McDermott’s defense.

As good as Allen is and can be, it’s hard to win when your defense is giving up in playoff losses, by year:

2025: 33 points allowed, lost 33-30
2024: 32 points allowed, lost 32-29
2023: 27 points allowed, lost 27-24
2022: 27 points allowed, lost 27-10
2021: 42 points allowed, lost 42-36
2020: 38 points allowed, lost 38-24

That’s a total of 199 points allowed in playoff losses since 2020, #1 most of any team in the NFL.

That’s an average of 33.2 points allowed in playoff losses.

Out of 12 teams with at least three playoff losses since 2020, the Bills have allowed the #2 most points per game.

Only the Steelers have allowed more in losses.

Teams like the Ravens (21.2) and Packers (24.2) allowed nearly 10 points per game fewer in playoff losses, making life far easier on their quarterback.

Don’t want to look in terms of points? Instead want to compare efficiency?

Out of 30 teams to lose playoff games since 2020, the Bills defense in playoff losses has ranked:

#29 in success rate (47.1%)
#26 in EPA per play (-0.25)
#27 in third down conversion rate allowed (54%)
#27 in punt rate forced per drive (19.7%)
#27 in yards per drive allowed (43)
#23 in red zone conversion rate allowed (48%)

That’s not good enough.

Not on regular downs. Not in high leverage moments. Not in the red zone.

That’s how you lose games.

Meanwhile, the offense averaged 25.5 points scored in playoff losses.

Where does that rank among the 12 teams with at least three playoff losses since 2020?

#1 most points scored per game in playoff losses.

Not another team is close.

1. 25.5 – Bills
2. 21.0 – Rams and Bucs
4. 20.3 – Cowboys
5. 19.5 – Eagles
6. 19.0 – Steelers
7. 18.8 – Packers
8. 18.3 – Chiefs
9. 15.0 – Chargers
10. 13.8 – Ravens
11. 13.3 – Texans
12. 13.0 – 49ers

The Bills have lost games with the #1 best scoring offense in losses paired with the #2 worst scoring defense.

That’s too much pressure on any quarterback.

Too long has there been an acceptance of this massive issue for a defensive minded head coach.

It’s incredible to think of it like this, if the defense simply allowed:

• 29 points to Denver in 2025 in the Divisional Round
• 28 points to the Chiefs in 2024 in the Conference Championship
• 23 points to the Chiefs in 2023 in the Divisional Round

They would have played in a Super Bowl against the Eagles, an AFC Championship against the Patriots, and another AFC Championship against the Ravens.

The Bills lost all three games by 3 points each despite their offense scoring 30, 29, and 24 points.

The Bills needed a change.

Allen deserved a change.

So, they fired McDermott and now begin their search for his successor.

While the offense has been a strength, it has regressed some the last few years.

It’s hard not to contrast the final three years with Brian Daboll calling plays (2020-2022) and the three years since (2023-2025).

In Daboll’s last 3 years in Buffalo, he emphasized fast starts, building halftime leads, and didn’t require nearly as much from Allen in the fourth quarter of games, not asking him to play Superman late.

In the last three years, Allen has needed to grab his cape in the fourth quarter to erase deficits far too often.

Just look at the numbers:

2020-2022: 34 halftime leads to 9 halftime deficits
2023-2025: 29 halftime leads to 23 halftime deficits

The Bills built those leads with aggressive offense and got the most out of Allen early in games.

In the first half of games, Allen recorded the following performance:

2020-2022: +0.09 EPA per pass, 49% success rate, 7.3 Y/A, 37% first down rate
2023-2025: +0.04 EPA per pass, 44% success rate, 7.1 Y/A, 32% first down rate

Allen’s performance naturally drove the entire offense to be more efficient.

First half efficiency, 2020-2022:

• 2.75 points per drive
• 38.0 yards per drive
• 48% of drives reached the red zone or scored before
• 43% of drives were punts or turnovers

2023-2025:

• 2.53 points per drive
• 35.2 yards per drive
• 44% of drives reacthe hed red zone or scored before
• 46% of drives were punts or turnovers

Daboll’s aggressive approach to early situations to build leads is the correct approach to winning games.

And he has chemistry with Allen.

The only goal of the Buffalo Bills should be to win the Super Bowl.

McDermott, a defensive head coach, couldn’t get his defense to play well enough to support an Allen-led offense.

Near term, with such a massive move at the top, the Bills may take one step back before taking two steps forward.

But it can’t be more than a slight hiccup.

Allen, when healthy, always gives the Bills a higher floor than most teams.

That said, we just saw the Chiefs, even with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, record only 6 wins.

Buffalo must figure out how to convert Allen into a Lombardi Trophy.

The AFC East, with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel, is not getting easier to win anytime soon.

What the future holds for the Bills is anyone’s guess, but the fact is they must get better both offensively and defensively.

In the end, the lesson for Buffalo is brutally simple: you do not waste a quarterback like Allen.

For five straight postseasons, the Bills paired elite offensive production with substandard defensive performance and conservative game management.

The results were exactly what the numbers predicted: no conference titles, no Super Bowls, only heartbreak and squandered opportunity.

Firing McDermott is not about scapegoating one bad night in Denver.

It is an overdue acknowledgment that the organizational model around Allen has been fundamentally misaligned.

The next hire must reflect a different philosophy: an offensive head coach who builds leads early, maximizes Allen’s strengths, and a defensive coordinator who can keep playoff opponents in the low-to-mid 20s instead of the 30s.

Anything less is malpractice.

The window is open right now, but it will not stay open forever.

If the Bills get this wrong, they will have turned one of the most gifted quarterbacks of his era into a cautionary tale instead of a champion.