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Building a 2026 NFL draft board is a work in progress throughout the offseason.

The NFL Combine was a significant step towards completing the process, and the final touches will be put on the board as players work through their Pro Days.

Here are my current top 50 prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft, along with a scouting report for each prospect.

Top 50 Prospects: 2026 NFL Draft

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Top Overall Prospects: Scouting Reports

1. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Downs is the prototype for a modern safety. He’s at his best in the box, and his ability to quickly diagnose plays and get into position makes him an asset against the run. But he can also read the quarterback from the deep secondary and has plenty of range to make plays in coverage.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Although he’s a clear fit at strong safety, he’s on the smaller side for the position, and it shows when he’s matched up with tight ends in coverage.  

Good team fits: Everyone

2. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Styles is a former safety who still runs like one, but he’s built like an edge defender. He’s a three-down linebacker who can drop in coverage, blitz, and has elite range against the run. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

He was recruited as a 215-pound safety and only has two years of experience at linebacker, so he’s still developing his take-on skills. He can get washed out of plays when linemen get their hands on him. 

Good team fits: Commanders, Bengals, Cardinals, Titans, Dolphins, Cowboys

3. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Bailey is explosive off the snap and quickly converts that speed to power. His ability to win with speed, leverage, and an array of pass-rush moves sets a high floor and should allow for immediate production. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Most top-tier edge defenders have elite length, and Bailey is lacking in terms of size compared to the players who usually come off the board at his position inside the top 10. If he lacks the length and strength combination to be an asset against the run, his value drops. 

Good team fits: Titans, Jets, Commanders, Browns, Bengals

4. Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Reese is a unique athlete who played linebacker at Ohio State but is likely to shift to an edge-defender role in the NFL. He’ll fit best in a scheme where he can continue lining up in a two-point stance. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Drafting a one-year starter and asking him to change positions is the perfect recipe for a bust. Though Reese’s talent is undeniable, it would be foolish to assume he makes the transition look as easy as Micah Parsons. Reese is one of the biggest high-risk, high-reward prospects in recent memory. 

Good team fits: Jets, Cardinals, Giants, Browns, Commanders, Saints, Bengals

5. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Like most Ohio State receivers to enter the league in recent years, Tate wins with precise route technique and reliable hands. He’s an outside receiver who can stretch the field or contribute as a possession weapon to move the sticks. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Tate has limited experience in the slot and lacks the agility to be an elite weapon after the catch, which might limit him to a role on the outside. Despite his production as a downfield weapon, he doesn’t have rare physical traits, potentially making him vulnerable against top-tier cover corners. 

Good team fits: Browns, Giants, Saints, Commanders, Dolphins, Cowboys, Ravens

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6. Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Thieneman is at his best in the deep secondary, where his ability to read the quarterback and disrupt the passing game stands out. However, he also has extensive experience lining up in the box and has the tackling skills for the strong safety role. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Can he handle coverage assignments in the slot? He might lack the agility to stick with quicker slot receivers, and he lacks the size and strength to match up well with tight ends. This is mostly a non-issue if he’s playing free safety, but it limits his versatility. 

Good team fits: Vikings, Bears, Browns, Eagles, Steelers, Jets, Chargers, Raiders, Bengals 

7. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Delane thrives as a ball-hawk in zone coverage, but he’s also aggressive in press and has the strength to handle that role against most receivers. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Speed is a bit of a concern, especially if he’s going to play press coverage at a high rate. Many NFL receivers will have the ability to pull away from him downfield if they’re able to beat him at the line of scrimmage.  

Good team fits: Dolphins, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints, Eagles, Panthers, Falcons, Ravens

8. Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Terrell plays with an aggressive style and excels at locating and playing the ball. He’s shown production on the outside, in the slot, and can handle any coverage scheme. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Although he’s pesky in press coverage, he might not have the size and strength to handle that style in certain matchups. He also needs to clean up some tackling issues. 

Good team fits: Ravens, Dolphins, Cowboys, Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks

9. Rueben Bain Jr, EDGE, Miami

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Bain will make his money as a pass rusher, where he uses his lack of size to his advantage to create a small target for linemen as he bends around the edge. He also converts speed to power well, which keeps linemen on their toes as he can vary his plan of attack. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

You’ve probably heard about Bain’s short arms. It doesn’t have to be a fatal flaw, especially as a pass rusher. However, it does limit his ability to shed blocks and might prevent him from contributing at a high level against the run. 

Good team fits: Commanders, Bengals, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Titans, Lions, Cardinals, Jets

10. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Mauigoa was a three-year starter at right tackle and deserves a shot at that spot in the pros. He wins with strength. Few edge rushers will be able to beat him with power. There’s a chance he’ll need to move inside in the pros, but his ceiling will be elite at guard, where his average quickness at tackle suddenly becomes a strength on the interior. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

He might not be quick enough to stick at right tackle. He’s also surprisingly inconsistent in the run game. He has the power to dominate, but he also has a bad habit of leaning out and losing the leverage to finish.  

Good team fits: Browns, Cardinals, Giants, Dolphins, Chiefs, Rams

11. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Love is a well-rounded ball carrier who has the speed to produce big plays, the power to fight through contact, and the skills to contribute in the passing game. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Does he have the vision to run between the tackles? Love has a tendency to hesitate on inside runs and creates too many negative plays. According to Sports Info Solutions, 20% of his carries between the tackles generated zero or negative yards, ranked 118th out of 131 qualified ball carriers. 

Good team fits: Eagles, Browns, Lions, Rams, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Patriots

12. Makai Lemon, WR, USC

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Lemon fits best in the slot where his smooth route technique allows him to create quick separation. When he’s on the outside, his smooth acceleration allows him to get behind the defense. He’s also among the most reliable pass catchers to enter the draft in recent years, snagging nearly everything within reach. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

If he’s lined up on the outside, Lemon is undersized and lacks the strength to consistently fight through press coverage. He lacks elite speed, so while he can pull away from cornerbacks with his acceleration, some corners can close the gap. 

Good team fits: Jets, Commanders, Dolphins, Browns, Steelers, 49ers, Bills

13. Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Faulk played a versatile role for Auburn, lining up on the edge in multiple fronts, and has starter potential in any defensive scheme as a result. As a pass rusher, he primarily wins with strength, displaying the ability to swat away linemen from his chest and also win with a strong bull rush. He might turn into a lineman who plays on the edge on early downs and shifts inside on passing downs. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

The 20-year-old Faulk is underdeveloped as an edge rusher, likely due to his role in Auburn’s defense. According to Sports Info Solutions, he lined up from the seven-tech spot or wider just 60% of the time, by far the lowest rate of the highly-rated edge rushers in this class. 

Good team fits: Panthers, Vikings, Ravens, Cowboys, Seahawks, Chargers, Eagles, Bears, 49ers, Broncos, Jets

14. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Mendoza is a pocket passer who makes quick decisions and delivers an accurate ball. He thrived in Indiana’s RPO-heavy offense and should do well in an NFL scheme that similarly relies on him to make quick decisions and deliver the ball efficiently. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Modest arm strength and mobility will limit Mendoza’s ceiling. Although he’s not a complete statue, Mendoza doesn’t have the agility to make many defenders miss, and he doesn’t have the arm to make difficult throws on the move. So he’ll need to be supported by a strong offensive line and effective weapons on the outside to reach his ceiling. 

Good team fits: Raiders

15. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Fano is a tall, athletic tackle who can play on the right or left side, though he has stated he’s most comfortable at right tackle. He wins with his quick footwork, which gives him the ability to stay in front of most speed rushers on the edge. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

A lack of power limited Fano’s ability to dominate in college and might hold him back early in his career. He won’t turn 22 until November, so there’s good reason to believe he’ll continue to improve his functional strength, but it’s a minor concern until he proves it.  

Good team fits: Cardinals, Dolphins, Rams, Browns

16. Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Ioane has the physical strength to excel at guard in an offense leaning on the power run game, and he should be an immediate asset in that area.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Athletic interior pass rushers can cause problems for Ioane as he lacks the footwork to stay in front of them when they get a quick jump off the snap. His movement skills are average at best, so he won’t have as much value to teams that like to pull their guards at a high rate. He’ll also need to keep his weight in check. He was around 20 pounds lighter in 2025, which likely contributed to his improved play. 

Good team fits: Rams, Jets, Texans, Packers, Steelers, Lions

17. Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Boston is an outside receiver with the size and hands to win in contested situations, but he also has the route technique to create separation. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Given his size and lack of experience in the slot, Boston might be limited to playing on the outside. Although he created plenty of separation at the college level, his modest speed likely means he’ll need to compete for the ball more frequently in the pros. 

Good team fits: Browns, Patriots, Seahawks, Dolphins, Ravens, Jets, Steelers, Cowboys 

18. Anthony Hill Jr, LB, Texas

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Hill is a rangy middle linebacker who wore the green dot for Texas’ defense. He’s at his best playing downhill and is one of the best wrap-up tacklers in this class. He should be an immediate asset against the run. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Mediocre change-of-direction skills limit his upside in coverage. He’ll likely struggle to stick to the most athletic tight ends and running backs in man coverage.  

Good team fits: Colts, Cowboys, Packers, Bengals, Saints, Vikings, Commanders, Eagles, Bills

19. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Sadiq’s athletic traits set a high ceiling for his potential. He can be moved around to create difficult matchups for the defense.  

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Expectations for Sadiq are mostly based on potential, as he was stuck behind Terrance Ferguson until the 2025 season. He also played a simplistic role in the passing game, with 36% of his targets coming on screens. He still needs to prove he can develop his routes and get open against NFL defenders. 

Good team fits: Eagles, Ravens, Buccaneers, Chiefs, 49ers, Panthers, Dolphins, Patriots 

20. Zion Young, EDGE, Missouri

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Young is a productive pass rusher who typically wins with power. He probably fits best on the edge in four-man fronts, but he has some versatility to play defensive end or standing up on the edge in three-man fronts. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Although he was consistently productive against high-end competition, he relies heavily on his power, which might limit his upside. To remain a serious pass-rush threat, he’ll need to develop a more well-rounded arsenal of moves so he’s less predictable and better prepared with counter moves when his power stalls. 

Good team fits: Cowboys, Jets, Panthers, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks, Raiders, Titans

21. Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Freeling has the athletic traits and length to develop into a strong pass protector at left tackle. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

The one-year starter is understandably underdeveloped at this stage of his career. He’ll need to prove he can play with better leverage and balance as a run blocker. 

Good team fits: Browns, Lions, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals, Panthers, 49ers, Patriots 

22. Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Miller’s combination of athleticism and length gives him the tools to handle speed rushers on the edge. He played right tackle in college, but has the traits to play on either side. He’ll fit best in a pass-heavy offense. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Even after starting for four years at a major program, Miller still lacks the power to perform at a high level. He struggles to sustain blocks and is inconsistent at moving defenders off their spot in the run game. If it doesn’t improve, he might max out as a steady swing tackle. 

Good team fits: Cardinals, Browns, Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins, Packers

23. Lee Hunter, DL, Texas Tech

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Hunter is a strong, physical interior lineman who will likely play a versatile role on the defensive line. He’s strong enough to take on double teams as a nose tackle, but also has the power to be an effective pass rusher. He should be able to stay on the field on passing downs. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

He’s not going to win with athleticism, so his pass-rush impact is limited to power, which can be neutralized by double teams. 

Good team fits: 49ers, Panthers, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Browns, Saints, Eagles, Vikings

24. Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Proctor is a massive left tackle prospect who might be viewed as a right tackle by some teams. He will fit best in an offense leaning on the power run game, as his physical strength as a run blocker should immediately transition to the league. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

A passive approach to pass protection limited his effectiveness in college. As a three-year starter, his lack of development in that area is concerning, and it might necessitate an eventual shift to guard. 

Good team fits: Eagles, Browns, Lions, Rams, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Patriots

25. Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

McCoy is a tall,  long outside corner who has the traits to develop into a well-rounded corner who can hold up on an island. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

McCoy missed the entire 2025 season due to an ACL injury. He entered the year with high expectations, but mostly due to his traits rather than proven production. He had 4 interceptions in 2024, but based on route-adjusted data, his ball-hawk rate was just 2.5% above expected. He is one of the riskiest boom-or-bust prospects in this class. 

Good team fits: Seahawks, Dolphins, Raiders, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders 

26. Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Cisse is a physical corner who played a high rate of press in college and has the traits to maintain that role in the NFL. Despite just 2 interceptions, he consistently finds the ball and disrupts the catch point. Expect more interceptions to come in time. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

His route recognition is still a work in progress. He was able to get away with mistakes in college due to his athleticism. He plays with an aggressive mentality against the run, but frequently fails to wrap up. 

Good team fits: Eagles, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, Dolphins, Cowboys, Ravens, Browns

27. T.J. Parker, EDGE, Clemson

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Parker typically wins as a pass rusher with power, though he has impressive athletic traits, indicating a potential higher ceiling for production. Due to his physical strength, he also holds up well against the run and should be a three-down defender.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Despite his athletic testing numbers, Parker rarely bends around the edge and wins with speed. He prefers to go through offensive linemen rather than around them, which won’t work at the same rate in the NFL. His production also dropped off considerably in 2025. Did he get complacent after a breakout sophomore year?  

Good team fits: Jets, Cowboys, Eagles, Patriots, Bears, Browns, Raiders, Titans, Bengals

28. Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Rodriguez is a high-energy, aggressive off-ball linebacker who should fit in any scheme. He probably fits best on the weak side and will make his greatest impact dropping into zone coverage. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

The former quarterback is built more like a strong safety and has struggled to develop his take-on skills. Though he’s a hard-hitter and playmaker in pursuit, he gets lost in the box sometimes and is easily taken out when linemen get their hands on him. 

Good team fits: Cardinals, Buccaneers, Bengals, Saints, Raiders, Commanders, Cowboys, Falcons, Colts, Lions, Vikings, Packers

29. Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Lomu has prototypical athletic traits to stay at left tackle in the pros. He demonstrated an ability to block on the move last year during his first year in Jason Beck’s unique offensive scheme. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Due to Utah’s shift in offensive scheme last season, Lomu has limited experience in traditional pass protection reps. He hasn’t been asked to consistently sustain blocks, and he struggled in a more traditional offense during his first year as a starter in 2024. The traits are there, but expect some growing pains.

Good team fits: Browns, Eagles, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals, Giants, Texans

30. Malachi Lawrence, EDGE, UCF

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Lawrence has the traits to develop into a three-down lineman. He typically wins with speed off the edge, but he has enough power to his game to threaten linemen in a variety of ways.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Can he hold up at the point of attack against the run? He shows flashes of power in his game, but it is inconsistent. He’ll benefit from adding some strength to be able to stay on the field against the run.

Good team fits: Jets, Ravens, Vikings, Eagles, Bears, Titans, Packers, Chargers

31. Keionte Scott, CB, Miami

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Scott is an aggressive nickel corner who plays the game like a tiny linebacker. He closes quickly against the run and makes plays in the backfield at an impressive rate. In zone coverage, he reads the quarterback well and consistently makes plays on the ball despite his size.  

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

His aggressive approach leads to mistakes in coverage and missed tackles against the run. You’ll have to live with some of that, but finding the right balance so that his negative plays don’t outweigh the positives will be key. There are also some concerns about his agility 一 he might struggle in man coverage against quick slot receivers. 

Good team fits: Cowboys, Steelers, Giants, Jets, Ravens, Titans, Bears, Browns

32. Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Johnson played outside, but he is slightly undersized and probably has the right athletic traits to shift to a nickel role, if needed. He has the speed to stick with receivers downfield and put up impressive ball-hawk numbers in 2025. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

One-year wonders are always risky, but especially at volatile positions like cornerback. Johnson was dominant in 2025, but a massive spike in ball-hawk production is a red flag. Based on route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, his ball-hawk rate jumped from 33% below expected in 2024 to 89% above expected in 2025. For a cornerback who isn’t overly physical in coverage, that leap probably isn’t sustainable. 

Good team fits: Seahawks, Falcons, Dolphins, Saints, Cowboys, Bills, Raiders

33. Derrick Moore, EDGE, Michigan

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Moore is a polished pass rusher who wins with a variety of moves. His raw traits aren’t as dangerous as some others in this draft class, but he keeps linemen guessing with his ability to win with speed or power. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

The run game is still a work in progress for Moore, who appears late to diagnose plays and struggles to easily disengage and pursue the ball carrier. He will likely struggle to get on the field against the run early in his career. 

Good team fits: Bills, Texans, Lions, Patriots, Browns, Bears, Panthers, Falcons, Commanders, Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles

34. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Tyson probably fits best as a big slot receiver, but he has experience on the outside as well. He’s a tough runner after the catch, giving him potential for big plays from the slot. He also has the size to compete for contested targets downfield. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Can he stay healthy? Can he catch the ball? Tyson missed significant time due to an ACL tear, collarbone injury, and hamstring issue. He never played a full season during his four years in college. He also struggled with consistency, dropping too many easy passes and also displaying awkward body control when tracking the ball downfield. 

Good team fits: Seahawks, Patriots, Steelers, Jets, Saints, Broncos, 49ers

35. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

McNeil-Warren has a versatile skill set and can be a ball hawk in the deep secondary, or he can step up into the box to play the run. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Does he have the change-of-direction skill for coverage assignments? Most strong safeties take on a good amount of coverage responsibilities in the slot, and Toledo tried to avoid putting McNeil-Warren in that position. If he couldn’t handle slot receivers in the MAC, he’s probably not taking on that role in the NFL.

Good team fits: Vikings, Bears, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Steelers 

36. Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Iheanachor grew up playing soccer and basketball, and his footwork and movement skills reflect that background. His athletic traits are impressive for his size and set a high ceiling. He’ll most likely stick at right tackle, where he played in college. Ideally, he will join an offense that gets the ball out quickly.  

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

How quickly can he refine his technique and get on the field? Iheanachor is severely underdeveloped for a redshirt-senior. It’s understandable, given his inexperience 一 he didn’t start playing football until 2021 in JUCO 一 but it’s still a concern considering how early in the draft teams might want to gamble on his upside. He struggles to sustain blocks, and his power doesn’t quite match expectations for his size. 

Good team fits: Browns, Cardinals, Dolphins, Lions, Eagles, Packers, Texans, Raiders, Steelers

37. Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Howell is likely to begin his career as a pass-rush specialist who wins with pure speed off the edge. He has an impressive closing burst to finish plays in the backfield. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

A lack of length and strength severely limits Howell’s ability to hold up at the point of attack against the run and likely limits his ability to be a three-down defender. 

Good team fits: Jets, Titans, Packers, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers, Bengals, Eagles 

38. Emmanuel Pregnon, OG, Oregon

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Pregnon is a powerful run blocker who fits best at left guard in a power-run-oriented offense. He moves relatively well for his size, though, and should be viewed as a scheme-versatile lineman.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

He has primarily played left guard throughout his career and has no experience at center, so there are questions about his versatility. Oregon asked him to block on the move at a high rate, but his movement skills are ordinary, and teams that rely on pulling guards at a high rate might have questions about his athleticism. 

Good team fits: Ravens, Bills, Jets, Texans, Rams, Steelers, Lions, Chargers

39. Peter Woods, DL, Clemson

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Woods is a developmental prospect with flashes of an impressive blend of strength and athleticism. He’s played both nose tackle and three-tech, and he could thrive in either role with more development once his ideal weight is sorted out. He likely fits best playing in a four-man front. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

After a breakout 2024 campaign, Woods disappeared during his junior year. Before the season, he chose to lose “about 20 pounds,” which appeared to impact his power without adding any meaningful speed to his game. 

Good team fits: 49ers, Texans, Lions, Bears, Panthers, Chargers, Saints, Broncos 

40. R Mason Thomas, EDGE, Oklahoma

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Thomas is an undersized speed rusher who is likely to begin his career as a pass-rush specialist. His ability to fly into the backfield forces opponents to account for him and can attract extra attention if opponents are concerned about the matchup with their offensive tackles. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

It’s hard to imagine Thomas, who entered the Oklahoma program as just 212 pounds, ever developing the strength to stay on the field as a three-down defender. He struggles to shed blocks against the run and misses too many tackles when he does get to the ball carrier. Given his size, his history of missing time with a variety of injuries is concerning. 

Good team fits: Cowboys, Titans, Chargers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Bears, Patriots, Jaguars, Vikings

41. Caleb Banks, DL, Florida

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Banks is built like a nose tackle but moves well enough to line up as a three-tech and make an impact as an interior pass rusher. Ideally, he develops into a pass-rush threat, but his versatility elevates his floor. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

After five years in college (three at Louisville, two at Florida), Banks still hasn’t played to the level you would expect given his traits. Injuries are a factor in that, but it’s difficult to fully explain away his lack of development.

Good team fits: 49ers, Steelers, Saints, Bears, Texans, Lions, Chargers, Vikings, Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders

42. Bud Clark, S, TCU

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Clark is a three-time team captain and a versatile defensive back who primarily played the strong safety role at TCU, but has impressive range in the deep secondary as well. He excels at reading the quarterback and getting into position to make a play on the ball. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Though he has plenty of experience in coverage in the slot, he might not have the agility to stick with some of the NFL’s quicker slot receivers. As he aggressively hunts big plays, he’s susceptible to misdirection and can give up some big plays. 

Good team fits: Colts, Vikings, Seahawks, Chargers, Bills, Bears, Bengals

43. Jalon Kilgore, CB, South Carolina

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Kilgore fits perfectly into the slot as the hybrid cornerback/safety in big nickel packages. He’ll be a matchup weapon against big slot receivers and tight ends. He may also have the traits to thrive in the deep secondary or even at outside cornerback.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Assuming he sticks in the big nickelback role, Kilgore needs to improve his production against the run. He tends to get lost in traffic and should be more effective at slipping blocks given his strength and athletic traits. 

Good team fits: Ravens, Cowboys, Steelers, Falcons, Packers, Bears, Jets, Giants, Titans

44. Dani Dennis-Sutton, EDGE, Penn State

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Dennis-Sutton has the ideal combination of length, strength, and athleticism to be a three-down edge defender in any scheme. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Impressive Combine numbers don’t always show up on the field. He needs to improve his burst off the snap and his ability to bend around the edge to be more of an explosive force as a pass rusher. 

Good team fits: Packers, Cowboys, Bears, Panthers, Bengals, Titans, Jets, Eagles

45. Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Hood has the speed, size, and length of a traditional outside corner. He has all the tools necessary to be developed into a corner who can handle playing on an island. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Hood played for three programs in three years and spent just one season as a starter. That alone will earn someone a boom-or-bust label. Given his traits, his lack of ball-hawk production is concerning. He just doesn’t have the awareness to find the ball yet. He also seems disinterested in fully participating as a tackler. 

Good team fits: Seahawks, Dolphins, Raiders, Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders 

46. Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Bernard is a balanced receiver who ran the full route tree in Kalen DeBoer's offense with experience in the slot and the outside.  He's a downfield weapon who tracks the ball well and has reliable hands.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

A lack of elite athletic traits limited Bernard's ability to create separation downfield. He'll need to continue perfecting his route technique and would benefit from getting stronger in contested situations.   

Good team fits: Commanders, Seahawks, Browns, Saints, Colts, Ravens, Dolphins, Bills, Vikings 

47. Keylan Rutledge, OG, Georgia Tech

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Rutledge has the athleticism and strength to be a standout guard and should be a solid rookie starter. He blocks well on the move but also has power to his game and should be valued by coaches in any scheme. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Although Rutledge has balanced traits, he doesn't stand out as elite in any one area, which might limit his ceiling. He’ll need to be cleared by team doctors due to multiple surgeries on his foot after a car accident. 

Good team fits: Texans, Bills, Browns, Eagles, Chargers

48. Jake Golday, LB, Cincinnati

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Golday is a traditional strong-side linebacker who wins with his physical play and excels on blitzes. He’s a reliable wrap-up tackler and should see action on early downs and blitz whenever he’s on the field on passing downs. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

Cincinnati sometimes pulled him off the field on passing downs. His agility and acceleration are limited, and he’ll get exposed in coverage by more athletic tight ends and running backs. 

Good team fits: Lions, Raiders, Jaguars, Chiefs, Texans, Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Steelers

49. Treydan Stukes, CB, Arizona

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Stukes is a prototypical big nickel corner. He thrives in zone coverage, reading the quarterback well and using his length to disrupt the catch point. Against the run, he navigates traffic well near the line of scrimmage and is a reliable tackler. 

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

The former outside corner lacked the agility for that role, and he’ll struggle in coverage when matched up with smaller slot receivers who can create quick separation with their change-of-direction skills. 

Good team fits: Cowboys, Titans, Steelers, Commanders, Packers, Jets, Bears, Giants, Ravens

50. De’Zhaun Stribling, WR, Ole Miss

Where he’ll make an impact in the NFL

Stribling is a balanced receiver who wins with route technique, tracking ability, and reliable hands. He’s a weapon after the catch due to a mix of speed and power as a runner. Although he lacks elite traits, his ability to impact the game in multiple ways sets him up to find a role immediately and potentially develop into a second option as a Z receiver.

What are his weaknesses? What concerns do teams have?

A lack of elite traits in any one area of the game might limit his ability to develop into a number-one option. Despite his size, he doesn't consistently box out defenders in contested situations. 

Good team fits: Jets, Steelers, Saints, Browns, Chargers, Cowboys, Ravens, Titans, Chiefs, 49ers, Raiders

51. Kyle Louis, LB, Pittsburgh

Louis played a hybrid role at Pitt, lining up as an off-ball linebacker in the box most of the time but also in coverage in the slot. He fits best in the Will role, potentially as a coverage specialist in sub-packages. If teams view him as a safety, his lack of experience in the deep secondary is a concern.

52. Romello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech

Height wins with pure speed and will likely be a pass-rush specialist in sub-packages. He’ll fit best in a scheme where he can line up in a two-point stance. There’s very little power to Height’s game, and he’ll need to add some weight and strength if he’s ever going to get on the field consistently on early downs. 

53. Keyron Crawford, EDGE, Auburn

Crawford is an athletic pass-rusher who wins by bending around the edge and making it tough on linemen to get into his pads. Against the run, he’s a playmaker in pursuit but needs to get stronger in order to effectively set the edge.

54. A.J. Haulcy, S, LSU

Haulcy primarily played the free safety role in college, but he has the physical build of a strong safety. In the deep secondary, he reads the quarterback well but lacks acceleration/speed to consistently get there in time to impact the catch point. He has the potential to play in the box more, but needs to work on his anticipation skills against the run. He likely is not an option in the nickel corner role due to speed/agility limitations. He’ll fit best in a scheme using a lot of two-high coverages, where he can play deep or in the box.

55. Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami

Mesidor wins as a pass rusher with sound technique and active hands. However, average traits across the board limit Mesidor’s upside, especially against the run, where he lacks the length and strength to consistently disengage once a lineman gets hands on him. He might struggle to stay on the field on early downs.

56. Gabe Jacas, EDGE, Illinois

Jacas is a potential three-down lineman who plays with a physical style and wins with his strong, active hands. He makes it hard for linemen to get into his pads, always staying alive to make plays in pursuit. However, he struggles to generate pass-rush wins with pure speed off the edge, which limits his ceiling in that area.

57. Christen Miller, DT, Georgia

Miller is an early-down run defender at nose tackle who probably fits best in a four-man front. He has experience along the interior defensive line and could play some three-tech as part of a rotation. Although he’s a decent athlete relative to most nose tackles, don’t bet on Miller making a consistent impact as a pass-rusher.

58. Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

Bell is a potential starting X receiver who can win with his size in contested catch situations. However, he struggled to create separation and has inconsistent hands, which might lead to less contested-catch success against more physical defensive backs in the pros.

59. KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

Concepcion is a dynamic weapon after the catch who is most effective in the slot. However, he's had issues with drops throughout his career, and his route technique needs work, which likely limits his immediate value. He can also contribute as a return specialist.

60. CJ Allen, LB, Georgia

Allen is a rangy linebacker who wore the green dot in the middle of Georgia’s defense. He has the traits to play the Mike or Will role. He needs to improve his ability to quickly diagnose plays. Given his athletic traits and the talent playing in front of him, you would expect him to make more plays in the backfield. He lacks take-on skills, which limited his production on blitzes.

61. Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU

Nussmeier is an aggressive quarterback who hunts for big plays, but often gets into trouble with his decisions to attack downfield. When he stays in the pocket and plays within the offense, he’s an accurate distributor of the football and has potential to start in the league if he strikes the right balance between his aggressive mindset and ability to play smart football from the pocket.

62. Jack Endries, TE, Texas

Endries was used primarily as an in-line tight end at Texas and developed his run-blocking technique in that role. Prior to 2025, he was more of a move tight end at Cal and was a dynamic weapon in the slot. He has the athletic traits to stretch the field down the seam and will do some damage after the catch. His pass-catching ability should immediately provide value, but he’ll need to add some power to his blocking to stay on the field as a true three-down tight end.

63. Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

Price is an early-down back who has the vision to take what's given to him and the long speed to hit home runs. However, he lacks the agility to consistently make defenders miss and create for himself. His lack of production and experience on passing downs raises questions about his ability to be a three-down back. He might also contribute as a return specialist.

64. Caleb Tiernan, OT, Northwestern

Tiernan lacks ideal length and has average athletic traits, but made steady progress throughout his career and is among the most technically sound pass protectors in this class in terms of hand placement and footwork. If his traits prevent him from earning a starting job, he should be a valuable swing tackle who also offers depth at guard.

65. Kamari Ramsey, S, USC

Ramsey is a highly intelligent safety who wore the green dot at USC. He fits best in the free safety role, where his ability to read the quarterback and anticipate the throw allows him to be a ball-hawk in the deep secondary. He also saw action in coverage in the slot and in the box, though he lacks the aggressive approach and physical play style to be a difference maker against the run.

66. Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt

Stowers, a converted quarterback, is a unique athlete at the tight end position and can be used to create mismatches in coverage. He should find an immediate role in certain packages, but his underdeveloped blocking likely keeps him from a full-time role initially.

67. Ted Hurst, WR, Georgia State

Hurst is built like a prototypical X receiver who has the speed to stretch the field. He has high-end starter potential but is still developing his route technique and needs to eliminate drops in his game before he can be trusted. His inability to create consistent separation at a high rate of contested targets in college 一 which he consistently won 一 but that success will likely be diminished with the jump in competition.

68. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

Simpson is a developmental pocket passer who has the tools to be a starter. Although he’s not a serious threat to run, he’s mobile enough to evade pressure and buy time. That skill set bodes well for his ability to survive early in his career while he’s developing the processing skills needed to succeed at a higher level. A few of Simpson’s primary issues are quick decision-making skills, a tendency to get rattled by consistent pressure, and an inability to manipulate defensive backs with his eyes. 

69. Davison Igbinosun, CB, Ohio State

Igbinosun is an aggressive outside corner who showed steady improvement in his ball-hawk skills throughout his career and has the impressive length to maintain that production. He fits best in a zone-heavy scheme where he can keep eyes on the quarterback. Severe penalties issues and mental lapses made Igbinosun a liability at times, but he made major strides during his final season in Columbus. If those mistakes return, it will prevent him from seeing the field.

70. Max Klare, TE, Ohio State

Klare has the potential to be a three-down tight end. He didn’t get to shine as a pass-catcher at Ohio State due to all their weapons at receiver, but he made his mark in previous seasons at Purdue. He’s athletic enough to create some separation, and he’ll produce after the catch. He improved as a blocker at Ohio State, which runs the ball from heavy formations at a high rate, and has the size to continue developing.

71. Mike Washington Jr., RB, Arkansas

Washington has a special blend of size and speed. Behind a good offensive line, he can be a starting running back and a legitimate home run threat. However, he struggles to create for himself due to mediocre vision and change-of-direction skills, which leads to far too many negative plays when he isn’t provided a clean running lane.

72. D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana

Ponds lined up on the outside at James Madison and Indiana, but he probably needs to shift to a nickel role due to his size. He plays an aggressive style and is a surprisingly efficient tackler for size. Any 5-foot-9 cornerback is going to lose certain matchups based on size alone. There were a few reps against Jeremiah Smith where Ponds looked like the little brother just trying to keep up, and he’ll find himself in that situation occasionally in the NFL.

73. Daylen Everette, CB, Georgia

Everette is a toolsy outside cornerback who is coming off a breakout year after spending three seasons as a starter at Georgia. He has length and athleticism to match up with downfield threats on the outside. It wasn’t until 2025 that Everett made a noticeable impact. He’s often late to react and will give up some easy catches. It’s always risky to invest in one-year wonders at a position of volatile production like cornerback. 

74. Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson

Williams is an undersized possession slot receiver who has the speed to make some plays after the catch but lacks the agility to make defenders miss. He was primarily used on underneath routes, though he lined up on the outside more in 2024 and was productive as a downfield weapon. He fits best in the slot, but his experience on the outside adds to his value. Expect him to see action immediately, and he could grow into a high-volume weapon in the slot.

75. Julian Neal, CB, Arkansas

Neal is a long, physical outside corner with impressive ball-hawk skills. He’ll fit best in a defense that wants to utilize his physicality in press coverage. A lack of acceleration and agility limits how he can be used in coverage. Neal probably isn’t quick enough to handle smaller receivers in the slot, and he’ll consistently need protection over the top against speedy downfield weapons on the outside. 

76. Malik Muhammad, CB, Texas

Muhammad is a lanky outside corner who made steady progress each of his three years at Texas. He probably fits best into a zone-heavy scheme. A lack of strength and long speed makes him susceptible to getting beaten downfield by all types of receivers, and he did give up some big plays in college. In man coverage, he might need consistent protection over the top. 

77. Kayden McDonald, DL, Ohio State

McDonald is a prototypical nose tackle who has the size and strength to take on double teams. He’s quick enough off the snap to create some disruption in the backfield against the run. Like almost all nose tackles, McDonald doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher. He is strong enough to collapse the pocket with his bull rush occasionally, but he lacks a plan of attack with his hands and doesn’t easily disengage to pursue the quarterback. 

78. Jadon Canady, CB, Oregon

Canady is a feisty nickel corner who uses his ability to read the quarterback and anticipate throws to be more disruptive than you would expect given his size and athletic traits. He has the aggressive mindset against the run to contribute. A lack of size is a concern, especially without elite athletic traits. Although he’s played outside corner and in the deep secondary, he might be limited to a role in the slot.

79. Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

Brazzell is a tall, outside receiver who wins with speed downfield. He's a one-dimensional weapon who is still developing his technique, but can be a quality WR2 and a big-play threat if supported by a more versatile, high-volume WR1. He'll need time to develop his route tree coming out of a scheme at Tennessee that asks very little of its receivers in terms of route variety.

80. Joshua Josephs, EDGE, Tennessee

Josephs is a speed rusher who can fly into the backfield off the edge. He has ideal length for the position and often wins with a strong rip move. To remain a serious pass-rush threat, he’ll need to develop a more well-rounded arsenal of pass-rush moves so he’s less predictable and better prepared to counter when his power stalls.

81. Kaleb Elarms-Orr, LB, TCU

Elarms-Orr is an explosive athlete who has elite range and the closing burst to make plays in the backfield. He thrived as the primary blitzing linebacker in TCU’s 3-3-5 scheme. At this stage, he’s a developmental linebacker with the skills to immediately make an impact on special teams. 

82. Chase Bisontis, IOL, Texas A&M

Bisontis is an athletic guard who blocks well on the move. He has also played some right tackle, and he has traits that should play well at center if he’s willing to move. However, he has short arms that show up in his game at times when he’s caught lunging and falling off balance. He’s better in the run game at this stage of his career, due to sloppy footwork and hand placement in pass protection.

83. Emmett Johnson, RB, Nebraska 

Johnson has the vision and confident approach to hit holes hard and avoid negative plays. His quick feet allow him to avoid contact at the line of scrimmage. However, he lacks ideal acceleration and long speed, which limits his ability to get to the outside and create explosive plays. 

84. Brian Parker II, OL, Duke

Parker was a tackle in college who is likely shifting to center in the pros. He lacked ideal length for tackle, but might lack ideal power for the interior. However, he's a technician, and if he builds up his strength, he's a potential starter. His versatility elevates his floor considerably.

85. Trey Moore, EDGE, Texas

Moore played a hybrid linebacker/edge role at Texas, lining up as an off-ball linebacker on early downs and on the edge as a pass-rusher. He might lack the tools to stay on the field at either position against the run, but his explosive pass-rush skills will be useful in sub-packages.

86. Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

Cooper fits best in the slot where he could develop into a Doug Baldwin-like weapon, though he does have enough speed to be used as a downfield weapon on the outside. The on-field production never matched the athletic traits he showed off at the combine. Based on route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Cooper’s catch rate was 0.4% below expected last year. He’ll need to improve his consistency in all phases of the game.

87. Tacario Davis, CB, Washington

Davis is a tall outside corner who uses his length to consistently disrupt the catch point. He fits best in a zone-heavy scheme on the outside, but might also be able to play free safety or a big nickelback role. Like most tall defensive backs, Davis’ change-of-direction quickness is lacking. He’ll struggle in man coverage against small, shifty receivers.

88. Gracen Halton, DT, Oklahoma

Halton was used as an interior pass-rush specialist at Oklahoma, only starting 10 games during his four years with the Sooners. He wins with athleticism and can make plays in the backfield as a pass-rusher and against the run by shooting gaps and quickly blowing up the play. A lack of length and strength might prevent him from being a three-down player, but he’ll have value as a sub-package weapon for teams leaning on four-man defensive fronts.

89. Bryce Lance, WR, North Dakota State

Lance, the younger brother of Trey Lance, has the prototypical size and speed to play the X receiver role. He primarily won due to superior size and speed in college, but his route technique and body control are lacking. He ran a limited route tree at North Dakota State and has no meaningful experience in the slot. Expect to see him used as a deep threat early in his career while he tries to develop into a more well-rounded weapon.

90. Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana

Sarratt is a strong outside receiver who makes his living in contested situations. He lacks the athletic traits or elite size to set a high ceiling, but savvy route-runners with reliable hands are typically able to find ways to contribute in a complementary role.

91. Gennings Dunker, OL, Iowa

Dunker primarily played tackle in college, but probably lacks the athletic traits to stick in that role in the pros. He’s a powerful run blocker, which bodes well for a switch to guard, where his athleticism could become an asset.

92. Jaishawn Barham, EDGE, Michigan

Barham is a former linebacker who converted to defensive end in 2025. Michigan exclusively lined him up wide so he could win with speed and bend around the edge. His counter moves are underdeveloped, and his short arms and modest upper body strength might limit him in that area. He will likely be used as a sub-package pass-rusher.

93. Jake Slaughter, C, Florida

Slaughter is technically sound and rarely caught out of position. He plays with good power. He did not look overly impressive on the move on the field, but he tested well at the combine. Because he’s a technician with solid all-around physical traits, he looks like a scheme-versatile player who can start immediately at center.

94. VJ Payne, S, Kansas State

Payne primarily lined up as a box safety at Kansas State, but has some experience in the nickel and at free safety. In the deep secondary, he has range but doesn’t consistently read the quarterback to get an early jump on the ball. Although he has limited reps in the slot, he has the traits to be a big nickel and should be strongly considered for that role.

95. Chandler Rivers, CB, Duke

Rivers was a starter on the outside for most of his four years with the Blue Devils and has the refined technique and field awareness you’d expect given his experience. However, given his experience and the impressive testing numbers, where’s the production? Based on route-adjusted data, he generated a career ball-hawk rate 16% below expected. At his size, he might need to switch to a nickel role, where he has limited reps.

96. Sam Roush, TE, Stanford

Roush was misused as a pure in-line tight end at Stanford and has the potential to blossom in the pros. He's big enough to be a reliable possession receiver but also has the speed to stretch the field down the seam and could develop into a well-rounded starter.

97. Keith Abney II, CB, Arizona State

Abney is a developmental prospect who plays with a physical approach, which is how he finds success, but also how he costs his team with far too many penalties. He has starter potential on the outside in a zone-heavy scheme, but penalties and a lack of size/speed might limit his upside.

98. Oscar Delp, TE, Georgia

Delp is an athletic pass-catcher who can create quick separation and will do some damage after the catch. He should be considered more of a big-play threat than a reliable possession guy due to a limited catch radius and issues adjusting to the ball. He’s a passable blocker and gives enough effort to potentially continue growing in that area.

99. Josiah Trotter, LB, Missouri

Trotter is a physical, downhill defender who is NFL-ready against the run. He wore the green dot at Missouri. In coverage, he's underdeveloped and needs to improve his ability to read the quarterback. He might lack the athletic traits to ever be a three-down defender.

100. Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia

Branch is an undersized slot receiver who has elite straight-line speed but isn’t as elusive as you’d expect. His YAC production is more all-or-nothing than consistent production. And although he has the speed to stretch the field, he wasn’t frequently used in that role, and his route tree is underdeveloped. Expect him to compete for snaps as a gadget weapon in the passing game.

2026 NFL Draft: Top 10 Offensive Prospects

1. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
2. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
3. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
4. Makai Lemon, WR, USC
5. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
6. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
7. Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State
8. Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
9. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
10. Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

2026 NFL Draft: Top 10 Defensive Prospects

1. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
2. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
3. David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
4. Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State
5. Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
6. Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
7. Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson
8. Rueben Bain Jr, EDGE, Miami
9. Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
10. Anthony Hill Jr, LB, Texas

With Pro Days, smokescreens, and general rumors leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft, it is important to stay on top of the latest news for the top college prospects.

This page will be updated through the draft with rumors and reports, so be sure to bookmark it and check back regularly.

Last Updated: April 13

Explore more NFL Draft content:

Latest 2026 NFL Draft Rumors & Reports

• Bills Targeting Wide Receivers?
• Caleb Downs' Draft Stock
• Rueben Bain Fatal Car Accident
• Jermod McCoy Answers Questions at Pro Day
• Mansoor Delane Draft Stock
• Zion Young's Pre-Draft Visits
• Rams Show Wide Receiver Interest?
• KC Concepcion Generating Interest?
• 49ers Targeting Wide Receivers 
• Bills Attend Ohio State Pro Day
• Makai Lemon Workout
• Chris Johnson's Pro Day
• Caleb Downs Medically Flagged at Combine?

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Bills Targeting Wide Receivers?

How Buffalo has spent its time this offseason might give us a clue as to how the team is planning to use its early draft picks.

Among the team's reported pre-draft visits and private workouts, here's a look at the players expect to be in the first-round mix:

• WR KC Concepcion
• WR Denzel Boston

And here are the potential Day 2 picks:

• WR Chris Bell
• DT Christen Miller
• DT Domonique Orange
• DT Gracen Halton
• LB Josiah Trotter
• LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr
• LB Jimmy Rolder
• CB Julian Neal
• CB Jalon Kilgore
• S A.J. Haulcy

Buffalo has also spent time with a variety of likely Day 3 selections.

Any individual visit doesn't tell us much about a team's plan. Sometimes it's just to gather injury information or answer some character-concern questions.

However, when visits are concentrated around specific position group with similar grades we can make an educated guess as to the team's plans.

Buffalo's visit list appears to indicate the team plans to address the defense on Day 2, and possibly leaning towards wide receiver in the first round.

Caleb Downs' Draft Stock

Players selected near the top of the draft usually have a lot of pre-draft visits lined up because teams want to be certain they're making the right choice with their biggest invested.

However, some prospects are considered so safe teams don't need to waste their time.

Caleb Downs is that prospect in this year's draft cycle.

The only reported 30 visit Downs has taken was to Dallas — which isn't surprising as the Cowboys tend to spend time with any elite prospect with a remote chance of being on the board at their selection.

At the combine, Downs had formal interviews with every team drafting in the top 10 and it appears those conversations provided all the assurance those franchises needed.

The fact that Downs apparently hasn't been busy leading up to the draft is probably a good sign for him coming off the board very early in the first round.

Rueben Bain Fatal Car Accident

Less than two weeks before the start of the 2026 NFL Draft, a report emerged about a 2024 fatal car accident involving Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.

One of the passengers in Bain's car, Destiny Betts, suffered serious injuries as a result of the crash and died several months later.

Bain was originally cited for careless driving, but that charge was later dismissed.

Betts' family released a statement about the incident, saying:

Destiny’s passing was the result of a tragic accident that occurred several years ago. While the loss remains incredibly painful for our family, we have worked hard to find peace and move forward. At this time, we are not seeking public attention surrounding this tragedy and respectfully request that our family’s privacy be honored. We also wish Mr. Bain the best as he continues his life and career.

NFL teams seemingly knew about this incident before reports emerged over the weekend.

Jermod McCoy Answers Questions at Pro Day

Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy is generally viewed as a first-round talent among the scouting community, but there were questions about his health after he missed all of 2025 with a torn ACL.

He put those to bed by running a 4.38 40 with a 38-inch vertical and 10-foot-7 broad jump at his Pro Day.

That performance should put McCoy back in the running to be the first cornerback selected on draft night, an honor that was expected to go to LSU CB Mansoor Delane.

Delane is still the favorite, but the odds have closed in recent days.

Mansoor Delane Draft Stock

LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane has reportedly had visits or workouts with the Commanders, Cowboys, Dolphins, Saints, and Titans, all teams with draft picks in the top 12.

This clearly indicates a number of potential landing spots for Delane inside the top 12, and the lack of connections to teams with later picks shows others expect him to be off the board in that range.

The Cowboys' selection at number 12 might be the floor for Delane.

Zion Young's Pre-Draft Visits

Missouri edge-defender Zion Young has been linked to at least 10 teams with visits or workouts, an indication that there is both interest and concern for Young.

Young was among the most dominant pass-rushers in the country last year and clearly has the raw talent of first-round pick.

However, Young was also arrested in December of suspicion of driving while intoxicated, just a few days before Missouri's bowl game.

While at Michigan State, Young was also among the players charged with misdemeanor assault for attacking a Michigan players in the tunnel after a game.

Given these events, it's not surprising that many teams want to spend more time with him before deciding whether to include him on their draft board.

Rams Show Wide Receiver Interest?

There have been reports of Rams scheduling top-30 visits with wide receivers Carnell Tate and Makai Lemon.

On the surface, it appears the team has an interest in using the 13th pick on a receiver  — or maybe even trading into the top 10, as both receivers could be gone by number 13.

However, the fact that these reports leaked is curious.

GM Les Snead has claimed his team doesn't conduct top-30 visits or private workouts.

This probably isn't true, as there are usually a couple of reports about players visiting Los Angeles each year.

However, it is noteworthy that the Rams rarely use them and/or forbid players from publicly discussing those visits (most teams aren't secretive anymore, though it used to be more common).

So how did two reports leak about high-profile wide receivers, especially so early in the process?

Do the Rams want teams to believe they're in the market for a wide receiver?

Sneed's secrecy regarding past visits shows how paranoid he is about the draft process, making him one of the more likely candidates to plant smokescreens, and something feels fishy about the team being publicly linked to Tate and Lemon.

KC Concepcion Generating Interest

If you've been following reports of pre-draft visits, KC Concepcion‘s name has been coming up a lot.

There have been at least 10 reports of teams inviting him to town on top-30 visits, which creates the impression that he's rising up draft boards and generating significant first-round interest.

Concepcion might be in the first-round conversation for certain teams, but don't fall into the trap of believing these visits show he's more coveted by the league than it appears in mock drafts and media rankings.

The reason for these visits is injury-related.

Concepcion underwent a “routine and preventative knee scope” in mid-March, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network.

When players visit team facilities, the team doctors are allowed to conduct their own physical.

So Concepcion's visits are primarily due to the medical procedure.

Anyone even remotely interested in Concepcion will bring him in for a visit — including teams who have no interest in him in the first round.

Those teams understand the injury may push him down draft boards, and they'll want to have good information on him if he's unexpectedly sitting on the board much later than initially expected.

49ers Targeting Wide Receivers

San Francisco has set up 30 visits with at least four wide receivers so far:

• KC Concepcion, Texas A&M
• Omar Cooper Jr, Indiana
• Denzel Boston, Washington
• Jordan Hudson, SMU

Concepcion, Cooper, and Boston are all expected to be considered by teams in the late first round.

San Francisco owns the 27th pick.

It's also worth noting that all four receivers have been productive after the catch, a trait that Kyle Shanahan wants in his offense.

On the most common NFL routes (curl, dig, draft, flat, screen, out, slant), check out the route-adjusted production for these four receivers, based on data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Concepcion: 37% more YAC than expected
• Boston: 11% more
• Hudson: 10% more
• Cooper: 7% more

Bills Attend Ohio State Pro Day

Bills GM Brandon Beane and head coach Joe Brady attended Ohio State's Pro Day on Wednesday.

Their attendance was mildly surprising given where Buffalo is positioned in the draft.

While Ohio State obviously has a long list of draftable players, the big names should be long off the board by the time Buffalo is on the clock at number 26.

The exception is nose tackle Kayden McDonald.

Last year's fourth-round pick, Deone Walker, started in the nose tackle role for the Bills last year but didn't perform well enough to be guaranteed the job moving forward.

The Bills' run defense as a whole struggled — it allowed 1.5 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 26th — so upgrading the interior defensive line might be a priority on draft day.

Makai Lemon Workout

USC WR Makai Lemon elected not to work out at the Combine, but he was timed as fast as 4.48 seconds at USC's Pro Day.

According to Tony Pauline, Lemon has at least 10 visits lined up with teams.

Following the Combine, unsubstantiated rumors were circulating on social media about Lemon tanking the interview process.

The fact that Lemon has 10 visits lined up is a little curious.

Players who get invited to the most visits are often those with injury and/or character questions.

Teams want to spend more time getting to know players who have off-field concerns to better assess how they'll fit into the locker room.

However, this certainly doesn't confirm those questionable post-Combine reports.

It's also possible that teams that didn't meet with Lemon at the Combine saw the reports and, just to be safe, invited him in to see whether it was true for themselves.

For what it's worth, Pauline stated a belief that Lemon won't get past the Rams at pick No. 13.

Chris Johnson's Pro Day

San Diego State CB Chris Johnson ran a 4.12 short-shuttle at the Aztecs' pro day.

Johnson skipped the change-of-direction drills at the Combine, so this was a critical time to add to his résumé that answers some questions about his athletic traits.

There shouldn't be any more concerns about Johnson's athletic traits, and he might be in the conversation to sneak into the late first round.

Caleb Downs Medically Flagged at Combine?

One of the biggest benefits for NFL teams of the Combine is obtaining medical reports on the prospects.

One of the biggest post-Combine medical rumors involved star Ohio State S Caleb Downs.

Shortly after the draft, Cory Kinnan posted:

“I was told by an NFC scout that Ohio State all-class safety Caleb Downs had a couple of issues flagged during his medical check…I was told that Downs was flagged with a partially torn meniscus this week. That is not a serious concern, but also being flagged with a potentially degenerative ACL is.”

The story was then picked up by multiple outlets and became a major talking point as to the potential for Downs to slide in the first round.

However, there are a number of reasons to question the accuracy of this report.

First and foremost, the story was deleted from the original site where it was posted.

This was a rumor started as a single-source, scout-sourced leak attributed to one unnamed NFC scout speaking to one draft reporter.

Shortly thereafter, on March 3, Pat McAfee said his show reached out to multiple NFL teams and was told there was “nothing in the medical that would deter them from bringing Downs in.”

Downs’ family was reported by multiple outlets as calling the story “clickbait,” “fake,” and false.

A to Z Sports said multiple NFL scouts/teams pushed back as well, with one source calling the report “BS,” another saying Downs’ medicals came back “relatively clean,” and others saying his medicals were not a concern on their radar.

Various injury doctors on X questioned the initial report and likewise viewed it in a highly questionable light.

Downs is widely regarded as one of the best prospects in this draft class.

If he slips outside of the top 10, it will likely be because of positional value rather than these nebulous injury rumors.

Explore more NFL Draft content:

In this 2026 NFL mock draft, I’m projecting what I think each team will do based on a combination of draft needs, available talent, GM tendencies, and scheme fits.

Let's dive into how the 2026 NFL Draft could unfold.

Ryan McCrystal gives you his 2026 NFL Mock Draft — making predictions for every team and every pick in the first round. All stats are from TruMedia/PFF unless otherwise noted.

Last Updated: April 6

2026 NFL First-Round Mock Draft: All 32 Picks

Previous 2026 NFL mock drafts from Ryan McCrystal:

• NFL Mock Draft 3.0 (Mar 23)
• NFL Mock Draft 2.0 (Mar 2)
• NFL Mock Draft 1.0 (Feb 9)

Explore more of our NFL Draft coverage:

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-10

1. Las Vegas Raiders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Mendoza

Best Draft Targets for the Raiders with the 1st pick:

• Fernando Mendoza: There will be zero debate about the No. 1 pick this year. Mendoza has been locked into the top slot since Oregon’s Dante Moore returned to school. That said, Mendoza is not on the same elite prospect tier as others who were similarly locked into the top slot early on (Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow). This is just a unique case of there being a quarterback-desperate team drafting first overall with no other viable quarterback in the conversation. 

Who Calls the Shots in Raiders Draft Room? 

GM John Spytek (second year) probably controls the roster, though it’s unclear. Last year, when Pete Carroll was head coach, the team declined to clarify who had final say (though it was probably Carroll, who had final say in Seattle). Spytek climbed through the scouting ranks, so he’s well-qualified to run the draft room. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Raiders heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Gained 20 or more yards on 6.4% of dropbacks, ranked 29th.
• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.6% of dropbacks, ranked 28th.
• DJ Glaze allowed 8.0% pressure rate, ranked 34th out of 38 qualified right tackles. Also allowed an 8.3% rate in 2024.  
• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 32% of carries, ranked 29th.
• Generated a 30.7% pressure rate on non-blitzes, ranked 25th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 36 – Omar Cooper Jr, Indiana
• No. 67 – Romello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech

2. New York Jets, Top Draft Pick Prediction: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Bailey

Best Draft Targets for the Jets with the 2nd pick:

• Arvell Reese or David Bailey: These two appear to have separated themselves as the top of this year’s class of pass rushers. Reese has incredible athletic traits, but he was a one-year starter as an off-ball linebacker at Ohio State, so there’s considerable risk. Bailey was an elite pass rusher at Texas Tech, but there are concerns about his ability to defend the run.
• Trade Down: Since there are multiple viable edge rushers in the top-10 mix (also Rueben Bain Jr.), the Jets might explore a small trade down, knowing one of those three players will be available a few picks later. The issue with that strategy is finding a trade partner, as other pass-rush-needy teams will see the same value in drafting later.

Who Calls the Shots in Jets Draft Room? 

Darren Mougey (second year) probably has final say over the roster. Mougey came up in the college scouting department with the Broncos, so he will likely control most draft-day decisions. However, both Mougey and Aaron Glenn report directly to owner Woody Johnson 一 a messy arrangement which often leads to a power struggle. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Jets heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Gained 20 or more yards on 4.8% of dropbacks, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.5% of dropbacks, ranked 27th.
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 15.7% of dropbacks, ranked 30th.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 11.2% of carries by running backs, ranked 24th.
• Allowed 7.7 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 25th. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 33 – Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
• No. 44 – Jalon Kilgore, DB, South Carolina

3. Arizona Cardinals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Arvell Reese, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Cardinals with the 3rd pick:

• Francis Mauigoa or Spencer Fano: The Cardinals need an upgrade at right tackle, and the two best offensive line prospects in this class both played that position in college. Arizona would have to pass over some highly-regarded defensive prospects to address this need with the third pick. However, there is almost no depth in this offensive line class. So Arizona may choose to fill this need here and add to the defense on Day 2. 
• Arvell Reese: Cardinals fans might bristle at the suggestion of another hybrid linebacker prospect, though Reese’s athleticism will be worth consideration if he’s on the board. Defensive coordinator Nick Ralis was in Philly during Haason Reddick’s breakout 2022 campaign and might have a better sense of how to use Reese than the Cardinals staff when Reddick was originally drafted in Arizona.

Who Calls the Shots in Cardinals Draft Room? 

GM Monti Ossenfort (fourth year) has final say over the Cardinals' roster. Ossenfort is a former director of college scouting (Patriots) and director of player personnel (Titans), and his assistant GM is former Lions director of college scouting Dave Sears. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Cardinals heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Gained 20 or more yards on 6.7% of dropbacks, ranked 26th.
• Evan Brown allowed 7.0% pressure rate, ranked 59th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Running backs gained 10 or more yards on 8.3% of carries, ranked 28th.
• Running backs were stuffed for zero or negative yards on 19.9% of attempts, ranked 26th.
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.5% of dropbacks, ranked 25th.
• Allowed 1.4 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 22nd.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 12.3% of carries by running backs, ranked 28th.
• Max Melton allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 17.1 coverage snaps, ranked 80th out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 34 – T.J. Parker, EDGE, Clemson
• No. 65 – Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU

4. Tennessee Titans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Arvell Reese, EDGE, Ohio State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Jeremiyah Love, RB

Best Draft Targets for the Titans with the 4th pick:

• Arvell Reese: Robert Saleh and Gus Bradley were on the coaching staffs that drafted Bruce Irvin in Seattle and Myles Jack in Jacksonville. Neither is a perfect comparison for Reese 一 he’s kind of a cross between the two 一 but those prior selections demonstrate Saleh and Bradley’s willingness to develop players who don’t fit conventional molds. 
• Jeremiyah Love: The best way to protect Cam Ward and create a more favorable offensive environment for his development would be to improve the rushing attack. 
• David Bailey or Rueben Bain: If Arvell Reese is gone, the Titans might turn their attention to the next best edge rusher on the board. Bailey has a higher ceiling and would likely be preferred to Bain. 
• Francis Mauigoa or Spencer Fano: The Titans signed left tackle Dan Moore Jr. last offseason and drafted JC Latham in the first round in 2024, so there’s already a lot invested in the tackle position. Pass protection was an issue, though, and there’s a chance Tennessee invests in the offensive line upgrade now, with a plan to cut ties with Moore after the 2026 season. 
• Wide Receiver: Adding another weapon for Cam Ward makes sense, but it might feel like a bit of a reach to select Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, or Makai Lemon this early. The best way to add a pass catcher might be to find a trade partner and move down a few picks before selecting one of those three receivers or even tight end Kenyon Sadiq.

Who Calls the Shots in Titans Draft Room? 

Mike Borgonzi (second year) joined the Titans after 15 years in the Chiefs organization and has final say over the roster. Borgonzi previously spent three seasons as Kansas City’s assistant GM, but he does not have a background in college scouting, so director of college scouting Jon Salge likely plays a critical role in the selection process. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Titans heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Gained 20 or more yards on 6.5% of dropbacks, ranked 28th.
• Dan Moore Jr. allowed 8.3% pressure rate, ranked 28th out of 34 qualified left tackles. 
• JC Latham allowed 6.9% pressure rate, ranked 28th out of 38 qualified right tackles.
• Allowed 8.9 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 31st. 
• Darrell Baker Jr. allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 18.8 coverage snaps, ranked 77th out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 35 – Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
• No. 66 – Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

5. New York Giants, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Styles

Best Draft Targets for the Giants with the 5th pick:

• Best Available Defensive Player: If an offensive player comes off the board in picks two through four, that means the Giants will have either Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, or Arvell Reese on the board. The team isn’t desperate to address any of those positions, but John Harbaugh comes from a Baltimore organization that rarely passes over an elite prospect who falls into their lap.
• Wide Receiver: Dart already has a No. 1 weapon (Malik Nabers), and the depth is acceptable. However, the best way to ensure Dart’s success is to provide as much support as possible. Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson will be options if the team wants to address that area. Makai Lemon might be in the mix, though his skill set overlaps with Nabers more than the other two.

Who Calls the Shots in Giants Draft Room? 

GM Joe Schoen (fifth year) has final say over roster decisions. He spent the previous five seasons as the assistant general manager to Brandon Beane in Buffalo. Schoen’s background is in college scouting with the Panthers and Dolphins. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Giants heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Allowed 1.9 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed 3.7 yards after contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 15% of carries by running backs, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed 4.6 yards per attempt to running backs with eight or more defenders in the box, ranked 31st.
• Allowed 7.7 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 22nd. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 37 – Kayden McDonald, DL, Ohio State

6. Cleveland Browns, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Carnell Tate, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Browns with the 6th pick:

• Offensive Tackle: The Browns invested heavily in the offensive line in free agency, so there’s no reason to force this selection. However, the jury is still out on Dawand Jones, who has struggled to stay healthy at left tackle. If Cleveland believes Francis Mauigoa or Spencer Fano can make the transition to left tackle, that could be the pick. Monroe Freeling, who played left tackle at Georgia, could also be an option, though the one-year starter would be a significant risk relative to some of the other prospects on the board. 
• Wide Receiver: Jerry Jeudy was ineffective last year, and none of the younger receivers made much of an impression. Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson are downfield weapons who fit Todd Monken’s offense well.
• Arvell Reese or David Bailey: The Browns re-signed Alex Wright last year, but they could still address the edge position if Reese or Bailey is viewed as the best available player. There’s a shortage of elite prospects in this class, so Cleveland may add to the pass rush rather than gamble at a position of need.
• Caleb Downs: The Browns have a solid duo at safety between Grant Delpit and Ronnie Hickman, but both players are in the final year of their contracts. 
• Sonny Styles: The Browns lost Devin Bush in free agency. Quincy Williams is going to be a significant downgrade if he’s the replacement. 

Who Calls the Shots in Browns Draft Room?

GM Andrew Berry (seventh year) has final say on the roster. Chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta previously played a significant role, but left the NFL to return to baseball this year. Director of college scouting Max Paulus (fifth year) likely has significant input on the draft.

Key Stats & Notes for the Browns heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel ranked 38th and 39th, respectively, out of 42 qualified quarterbacks in completion rate over expected, according to Next Gen Stats. 
• Gained 20 or more yards on 5.5% of dropbacks, ranked 30th.
• Cam Robinson allowed 9.1% pressure rate, ranked 32nd out of 34 qualified left tackles.
• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.1% of dropbacks, ranked 24th.
• Jerry Jeudy had a 21% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 41st out of 41 qualified receivers. 
• Running backs gained 10 or more yards on 7.1% of carries, ranked 30th.
• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 32% of carries, ranked 30th.
• Running backs averaged 0.4 yards before contact per carry, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed 4.4 yards per attempt to running backs with eight or more defenders in the box, ranked 28th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 39 – Emmanuel Pregnon, OG, Oregon
• No. 70 – D'Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana

7. Washington Commanders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Mansoor Delane, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Commanders with the 7th pick:

• Trade Down: Washington might have too many needs to justify using this selection, especially with only two picks in the top 100 selections. I'm not projecting trades in this mock draft, but there's a high probability of someone else using this selection on draft day.
• Jeremiyah Love: Washington has a crowded backfield after adding Jerome Ford and Rachaad White, but those moves feel like more of an insurance policy than a real plan. Adam Peters said the team is  “trying to get younger and faster, and I think that’ll be a big emphasis for us this offseason.” That goal has certainly not been met through free agency, at least on the offensive side, so we should expect this selection to fit that stated plan.
• Mansoor Delane: Quinn prefers big, physical corners in his defense, and yet he’s got two vastly undersized corners in the mix right now (Amik Robertson and Mike Sainristil). Delane isn’t huge, but plays with the physical style Quinn appreciates and could be a target, especially if Washington trades down.  
• Wide Receiver: The additions of Van Jefferson and Dyami Brown fall well short of what was needed. So Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, and Jordyn Tyson should be considered.
• David Bailey or Rueben Bain: Washington invested in the pass-rush unit in free agency, but the upgrades were minimal. The Commanders added just enough not to feel forced to make this selection, but Bailey or Bain could easily be plugged in as the starter opposite Odafe Oweh.
• Sonny Styles: The former safety could be loosely compared to Kam Chancellor or Keanu Neal, two strong safeties who thrived under Dan Quinn. Adam Peters might also be more open to drafting a linebacker early, having seen the value of an elite player at the position when he was in San Francisco with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman.

Who Calls the Shots in Commanders Draft Room? 

GM Adam Peters (third year) has final say over the personnel decisions. He previously spent seven years with the 49ers, most recently as John Lynch’s assistant GM. He also previously served as the Broncos’ director of college scouting under John Elway. Head coach Dan Quinn likely has significant input in selecting defensive players, as he’s always had strong preferences on who fits his scheme. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Commanders heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Running backs averaged 1.0 yards before contact per carry, ranked 27th.
• Allowed 1.4 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 25th.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 11.9% of carries by running backs, ranked 26th.
• Allowed 9.2 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 32nd.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 71 – Zachariah Branch, WR, Georgia

8. New Orleans Saints, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Keldric Faulk, DL

Best Draft Targets for the Saints with the 8th pick:

• Wide Receiver: New Orleans needs someone to pair with Chris Olave (who is entering the final year of his contract). The Saints have long had an affinity for Buckeyes, making Carnell Tate an obvious candidate. Jordyn Tyson would also be a fit. USC’s Makai Lemon is slightly smaller than the type of receiver the Saints typically favor, but he can still fill the role of the high-volume slot weapon New Orleans needs. 
• Keldric Faulk: The Saints favor length on the defensive line, and Faulk’s 34.5-inch arms make him one of the few long edge defenders in this class. New Orleans also isn’t afraid to gamble on underdeveloped players early in the draft (Payton Turner, Marcus Davenport).

Who Calls the Shots in Saints Draft Room?

GM Mickey Loomis likely has final say, though the power dynamic has been unclear since the departure of Sean Payton (who previously had final say). Since Loomis does not have a background in scouting, assistant GM and director of college personnel Jeff Ireland likely has substantial input in the draft.

Key Stats & Notes for the Saints heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Gained 20 or more yards on 5.1% of dropbacks, ranked 31st.
• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.6% of dropbacks, ranked 29th.
• Alvin Kamara ranked 49th out of 51 running backs in rush yards over expected per attempt, per Next Gen Stats. 
• Running backs gained 10 or more yards on 6.7% of carries, ranked 31st.
• Running backs averaged 1.0 yards before contact per carry, ranked 28th.
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 19.2% of dropbacks, ranked 25th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 42 – Caleb Banks, DL, Florida
• No. 73 – Max Klare, TE, Ohio State

9. Kansas City Chiefs, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Monroe Freeling, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Chiefs with the 9th pick:

• Offensive Tackle: The Chiefs just drafted a tackle in last year’s first round (Josh Simmons), but right tackle Jawaan Taylor is gone, and there’s no suitable replacement on the roster. Kansas City favors young prospects and prefers elite length in their offensive tackles. That likely gives Monroe Freeling and his near-35-inch arms an edge over Francis Mauigoa and Spencer Fano, neither of whom reach the Chiefs' length threshold. Every Chiefs offensive tackle under Veach measured at least 34 inches in arm length at either the combine or their pro day (Simmons was the shortest at just over 34 inches at his Pro Day). Freeling is already off the board here, though, so the Chiefs go with Fano.
• Kenyon Sadiq: The Chiefs probably have too many needs to justify this selection, but Sadiq has the skill set to develop into a replacement for Travis Kelce.
• Wide Receiver: Injuries and off-field issues have limited Rashee Rice’s availability, and Xavier Worthy is more of a gadget weapon than a receiver to build around. Carnell Tate would provide the size Kansas City needs on the outside. Jordyn Tyson might be an option also, though his skill set overlaps considerably with Rice.

Who Calls the Shots in Chiefs Draft Room? 

GM Brett Veach (ninth year) officially has final say over the roster, but Andy Reid’s opinion carries significant weight. The two have worked together since Reid hired Veach as a coaching intern in 2004, and Veach followed Reid to Kansas City in 2013. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Chiefs heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• All but one first-round pick under Veach (Josh Simmons, 2025) has been 21 years old or younger.
• Running backs gained 10 or more yards on 6.5% of carries, ranked 32nd.
• Isaiah Pacheco ranked 46th out of 51 running backs in rush yards over expected per attempt, per Next Gen Stats. 
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 22% of carries, ranked 26th.
• Allowed 76% completion rate when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 30th. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 40 – Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee
• No. 74 – Sam Hecht, IOL, Kansas State

10. Cincinnati Bengals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Downs

Best Draft Targets for the Bengals with the 10th pick:

• Caleb Downs: If the best defensive player in this draft class falls, the Bengals can’t pass on him. Downs has the on-field leadership skills to help turn the Bengals defense back into a respectable unit. 
• Francis Mauigoa or Spencer Fano: The Bengals need considerably more help on defense, but there is likely to be a run on the top defensive prospects in the top 10. Cincinnati might need to trade up or settle for another position depending on how the first nine picks play out. The offensive line would be a logical place to pivot, as Orlando Brown Jr. and Ted Karras are entering their final contract years. The dropoff in talent at this position is steep, so this will likely be Cincinnati’s only opportunity to land a future starter at tackle.
• David Bailey or Rueben Bain: Although the team has invested first-round picks in the position in recent years (Myles Murphy, Shemar Stewart), more help is clearly needed. Both players fill a need and fit the Bengals' tendency to target players with playoff experience in college.
• Sonny Styles: Styles is likely off the board, but would be another obvious target as an upgrade to Barrett Carter in the middle of the defense.

Who Calls the Shots in Bengals Draft Room?

Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bengals heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 14% of dropbacks, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed 1.8 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 29th.
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 19% of carries, ranked 31st.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 12.1% of carries by running backs, ranked 27th.
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 11.8% of attempts, ranked 32nd. 
• Allowed 8.3  yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 29th. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 41 – CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
• No. 72 – Joshua Josephs, EDGE, Tennessee

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 11-20

11. Miami Dolphins, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Francis Mauigoa, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Dolphins with the 11th pick:

• Defensive Back: New GM Jon-Eric Sullivan comes from Green Bay, where they have invested heavily in defensive backs over the years. If Caleb Downs falls, he’s the pick. But since he probably won’t, cornerback Mansoor Delane would also be a strong addition.
• Offensive Line: Miami has only two offensive line starters under contract beyond 2026 (Patrick Paul and Jonah Savaiinaea). Francis Mauigoa, Spencer Fano, and Monroe Freeling are all potential targets, and it’s likely at least one will be on the board.
• Edge Rusher: If Rueben Bain Jr. or David Bailey fall, the Dolphins would be thrilled. There’s a dropoff after those two, however, so Miami might not be able to address this position. Auburn’s Keldric Faulk is likely the best pass rusher left on the board. Miami’s Akheem Mesidor is also a first-round candidate, but is a redshirt-senior and therefore likely to slide down the board a little in favor of younger prospects.
• Kenyon Sadiq: New coordinator Bobby Slowik spent a long time in San Francisco and saw the impact George Kittle had on the 49ers offense. There are probably too many other holes to justify a tight end, but Sadiq does fit in terms of need and value. 

Who Calls the Shots in Dolphins Draft Room?

First-year GM Jon-Eric Sullivan has final say over the roster. Sullivan has spent his entire 22-year career in Green Bay, with over a decade of that time spent in the college scouting department. Assistant GM Kyle Smith also has a background in college scouting. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Dolphins heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 31% of carries, ranked 28th.
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.1% of dropbacks, ranked 27th.
• Generated a 29.8% pressure rate on non-blitzes, ranked 27th.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 12.4% of carries by running backs, ranked 29th.
• Allowed 4.7 yards per attempt to running backs with eight or more defenders in the box, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed 78% completion rate when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 31st. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 43 – Derrick Moore, EDGE, Michigan
• No. 75 – Skyler Bell, WR, UConn
• No. 87 – Gennings Dunker, OL, Iowa
• No. 90 – Zakee Wheatley, S, Penn State
• No. 94 – Oscar Delp, TE, Georgia

12. Dallas Cowboys, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Rueben Bain Jr, EDGE, Miami

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Bain

Best Draft Targets for the Cowboys with the 12th pick:

• Pass Rusher: The addition of Rashan Gary greatly reduced Dallas’ desperation to address this need. As a result, Dallas won’t reach, but David Bailey and Rueben Bain Jr. are still high on the Cowboys board.
• Cornerback: Dallas added Cobie Durant to plug a short-term hole at cornerback, but he’s only on a one-year contract. That move gives Dallas flexibility, but it will still likely have Mansoor Delane (and maybe Avieon Terrell and Jermod McCoy) high on the draft board.
• Offensive Line: Early this offseason, Dallas announced Tyler Smith would stay at guard, but that the team would play the five best offensive linemen. That leaves the door open for Smith to move permanently to left tackle, where he was an upgrade over Tyler Guyton late last season. Right tackle Terence Steele’s contract also makes his long-term future in Dallas questionable at best. Adding Olaivavega Ioane to play left guard would allow Dallas to move Smith to left tackle. Monroe Freeling could be an upgrade over Guyton at left tackle. Freeling, Francis Mauigoa, or Spencer Fano could take over Steele on the right side.

Who Calls the Shots in Cowboys Draft Room? 

Director of player personnel Stephen Jones effectively acts as the general manager with significant input from VP of player personnel Will McClay. Obviously, owner Jerry Jones has been known to step in and make decisions as well.

Key Stats & Notes for the Cowboys heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Tyler Guyton allowed 8.1% pressure rate, ranked 27th out of 34 qualified left tackles. 
• Terence Steele allowed 7.9% pressure rate, ranked 32nd out of 38 qualified right tackles. 
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 14.5% of carries by running backs, ranked 31st.
• Allowed 6.2 yards per attempt to running backs with six or more defenders in the box, ranked 28th.
• Allowed 8.9 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 30th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 92 – Gracen Halton, DL, Oklahoma

13. Los Angeles Rams, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Makai Lemon, WR, USC

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Lemon

Best Draft Targets for the Rams with the 13th pick:

• Wide Receiver: The Rams are likely to extend Puka Nacua, though his off-field issues raise some concerns about that, and Davante Adams is entering his final contract year. Adding another weapon to the mix would create an elite receiving corps in 2026, while also making it easier to part with Adams next offseason. The inside/outside versatility of Jordyn Tyson and Makai Lemon will be attractive to the Rams.
• Right Tackle: With Rob Havenstein retiring, the Rams need to find an answer at right tackle. Francis Mauigoa and Spencer Fano, who both played the position in college, would be ideal but are likely to be off the board. Monroe Freeling and Kadyn Proctor would be candidates to shift from the left side.
• Olaivavega Ioane: Their starting offensive guards are in place, but Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson will both be free agents after the upcoming season, and the Rams probably can’t afford to re-sign both. Ioane is the prototypical guard for the Rams’ power rushing attack. 

Who Calls the Shots in Rams Draft Room? 

GM Les Snead (15th year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the Rams heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Rob Havenstein (who turns 34 in May) allowed 9.1% pressure rate, ranked 36th out of 38 qualified right tackles. 
• Davante Adams had a 15.4% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 37th out of 41 qualified receivers. 
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 12.1% of attempts, ranked 31st. 
• Darious Williams allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 28.6 coverage snaps, ranked 61st out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 61 – Deontae Lawson, LB, Alabama
• No. 93 – Austin Barber, OT, Florida

14. Baltimore Ravens, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Olaivavega Ioane, OG

Best Draft Targets for the Ravens with the 14th pick:

• Cornerback: Two-time All-Pro Marlon Humphrey is coming off the worst year of his career and entering the final year of his contract. Adding some short-term insurance and a long-term replacement would be a smart move. The Ravens are willing to take risks, so they are probably a candidate to consider Jermod McCoy, who missed the 2025 season due to injury but could have been a top-10 pick if healthy. Avieon Terrell’s versatility between the outside and the nickel role could also be attractive, given Humphrey’s role.
• Olaivavega Ioane: Baltimore often takes the best available player, especially when he's the top prospect at his position in the class. That likely puts Ioane on the team's radar. Although Baltimore signed John Simpson this offseason, guard may still be a need as Andrew Vorhees enters the final year of his contract. There's also a chance Ioane could move to center to replace Tyler Linderbaum.
• Pass Rusher: The addition of Trey Hendrickson obviously helps, but the Ravens also lost over 1,000 snaps of edge-rusher performance between Kyle Van Noy, Dre’Mont Jones, and David Ojabo. The top edge defenders are likely off the board by this point, but Auburn’s Keldric Faulk should be in consideration if available. 
• Wide Receiver: Former first-round pick Rashod Bateman is signed through 2029 but still hasn’t met expectations. Lamar Jackson really needs a more reliable outside receiver who can win in contested situations to complement the smaller Zay Flowers. Ohio State’s Carnell Tate, Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson, and Washington's Denzel Boston would fill that need. 

Who Calls the Shots in Ravens Draft Room? 

GM Eric DeCosta (eighth year as GM, 28th year in organization) controls roster construction and has maintained a similar approach to his former boss, Ozzie Newsome.

Key Stats & Notes for the Ravens heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 20.3% of dropbacks, ranked 21st.
• Generated at 29.7% pressure rate on non-blitzes, ranked 29th.
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 22% of carries, ranked 25th.
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 16.2% of attempts, ranked 22nd. 
• Allowed 7.5 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 21st. 
• Marlon Humphrey allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 17.5 coverage snaps, ranked 78th out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 45 – Chase Bisontis, OG, Texas A&M
• No. 80 – Mike Washington Jr, RB, Arkansas

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Sadiq

Best Draft Targets for the Buccaneers with the 15th pick:

• Kenyon Sadiq: Tampa has emphasized building up the offense in recent years, so adding another weapon like Sadiq would fit with that strategy. Cade Otton was re-signed, but it’s a moderate contract, and he’s better suited as the No. 2 paired with a more athletic weapon like Sadiq.
• Linebacker: The Bucs might need a replacement for Lavonte David, who is a free agent and is considering retirement. The addition of Alex Anzalone gives Tampa a short-term solution, but that shouldn’t deter the team from finding a long-term solution. Georgia’s CJ Allen and Texas’ Anthony Hill Jr. were green-dot linebackers in college who might be on Tampa’s radar, though the top half of the first round feels like a reach.
• Pass Rusher: Tampa has plenty of depth at this position in the short term, but Anthony Nelson, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and YaYa Diaby will all be free agents after the 2026 season. Drafting someone in the early rounds this year and re-signing Diaby at some point is the likely plan moving forward. 

Who Calls the Shots in Buccaneers Draft Room?

GM Jason Licht (13th year) has final say over the roster. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Buccaneers heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.3% of dropbacks, ranked 26th.
• Running backs gained 10 or more yards on 7.8% of carries, ranked 29th.
• Rachaad White and Bucky Irving ranked 44th and 50th, respectively, out of 51 running backs in rush yards over expected per attempt, per Next Gen Stats. 
• Allowed 7.9 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 27th. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 46 – R Mason Thomas, EDGE, Oklahoma
• No. 77 – Kyle Louis, LB, Pittsburgh

16. New York Jets, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Tyson

Best Draft Targets for the Jets with the 16th pick:

• Wide Receiver: Instead of reaching for a quarterback, why not set a future quarterback up for success by adding another weapon? Aaron Glenn once said, “If you don't block, you don't get a rock.” He’s certainly going to appreciate the well-rounded Jordyn Tyson.
• Offensive Guard: Alijah Vera-Tucker and John Simpson are gone, and only Dylan Parham has been added in free agency. Vega Ioane would be a natural fit at left guard. Kadyn Proctor or Monroe Freeling could also be candidates to shift to guard.
• Ty Simpson: How desperate are the Jets to find their quarterback of the future? It would be a reach to take Simpson with this selection, but are they comfortable just wasting a year with Geno Smith? My best guess is the Jets will pass on Simpson here and draft someone on Day 2 (maybe even Simpson, if he falls). That way, they’ll have a young quarterback to hand the offense over to late in the year, but with limited resources invested in the position, it will be easy to justify drafting another quarterback early in 2027.

See the 2nd pick for more on the Jets' draft plans.

17. Detroit Lions, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Spencer Fano, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Lions with the 17th pick:

• Offensive Tackle: Left tackle Taylor Decker is gone, and Detroit doesn’t have a replacement on the roster. The Lions can probably consider left and right tackles since they can move Penei Sewell to left tackle over the summer if that helps get the five best linemen on the field. Monroe Freeling, Spencer Fano and Francis Mauigoa are likely atop the Lions board, with Blake Miller and Kadyn Proctor potentially the fallback plan if all three are gone. 
• Edge Rusher: This is a glaring need with Marcus Davenport and Al-Quadin Muhammad out the door. If Keldric Faulk is on the board, Detroit will probably be attracted to his size and physicality. Miami’s Akheem Mesidor also feels like a great culture fit, but can Detroit justify a fifth-year senior with questionable athletic traits inside the top 20? Don’t rule out a trade-up to address this need, especially if Rueben Bain Jr. slides outside the top 10.
• Olaivavega Ioane: The left guard position was a weak spot, and an upgrade over Christian Mahogany might be an offseason priority. Ioane, who played left guard at Penn State, would be a natural fit. 
• Defensive Tackle: Detroit’s run defense held the team back last year, and now D.J. Reader is gone. Last year’s first-round pick Tyleik Williams will step up, but since Levi Onwuzurike is a free agent after 2026, Detroit could still address the position. Clemson’s Peter Woods would probably be the most attractive option due to his pass-rush potential on the interior.

Who Calls the Shots in Lions Draft Room? 

GM Brad Holmes (sixth year) has final say over personnel decisions. Holmes was a longtime director of college scouting with the Rams before joining Detroit, and managing the draft is his strength. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Lions heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Christian Mahogany allowed 6.9% pressure rate, ranked 57th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Jameson Williams had an 11.8% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 31st out of 41 qualified receivers. 
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 19.8% of dropbacks, ranked 23rd.
• Allowed 1.8 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 28th.
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 19% of carries, ranked 30th.
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 13.4% of attempts, ranked 30th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 50 – Jake Golday, LB, Cincinnati

18. Minnesota Vikings, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Thieneman

Best Draft Targets for the Vikings with the 18th pick:

• Safety: There’s a chance Harrison Smith returns, but the 37-year-old safety can’t play forever. Dillon Thieneman’s versatility makes him the ideal target. He can play next to Smith or fully take over his role. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren might also be an option, but he’s probably better suited as a replacement for Smith than playing alongside him.
• Cornerback: Minnesota only has two cornerbacks under contract beyond 2026 (Byron Murphy and James Pierre). Mansoor Delane and Avieon Terrell are likely on the Vikings' radar. Jermod McCoy might be in the mix if Minnesota is comfortable with his medicals.

Who Calls the Shots in Vikings Draft Room?

Before being fired, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had final say over the roster, but since his background was not in scouting, director of college scouting Mike Sholiton likely played a significant role in the draft. Interim GM Rob Brzezinski also has no background in scouting, so while he might have final say, it’s safe to assume this late change at GM gives Sholiton significant influence over this year’s draft process. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Vikings heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• J.J. McCarthy ranked 40th out of 42 qualified quarterbacks in completion rate over expected, according to Next Gen Stats. 
• Gained 20 or more yards on 7.0% of dropbacks, ranked 25th.
• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.2% of dropbacks, ranked 25th.
• Will Fries allowed 6.5% pressure rate, ranked 55th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Aaron Jones ranked 39th out of 51 running backs in rush yards over expected per attempt, per Next Gen Stats. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 49 – Gabe Jacas, EDGE, Illinois
• No. 82 – Julian Neal, CB, Arkansas
• No. 97 – Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana

19. Carolina Panthers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Keldric Faulk, DL, Auburn

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Avieon Terrell, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Panthers with the 19th pick:

• Keldric Faulk: The Panthers need help along the defensive front, but I’m mentioning Faulk in his own category due to his versatility. He can line up on the interior, as an end in three-man fronts or out wide as more of a pure edge-rusher. That versatility perfectly fits Ejiro Evero’s multiple-front defense and he would likely be an upgrade over Tershawn Wharton.
• Cornerback: Since Carolina has addressed many of its needs in free agency, the Panthers have some flexibility with this selection. Cornerback could be another position where the value makes sense even though it isn’t a short-term need. Avieon Terrell and Jermod McCoy are potential targets who could be on the board. Mike Jackson is coming off a strong year, but he’s a free agent after the season and might be hard to re-sign given how much money is already invested in Jaycee Horn.
• Defensive Tackle: Carolina’s interior defensive line returns mostly intact, but its 2025 performance, even from Derrick Brown, was underwhelming. Tershawn Wharton is comically overpaid, and Carolina will likely try to escape that contract as soon as possible. This could be the ideal spot for Peter Woods, who is young and still developing (he turned 21 in March). Woods wouldn’t need to be forced into a starting role, but would give some hope to a sinking unit. 
• Left Tackle: Former top-10 pick Ikem Ekwonu is coming off a down year, and his postseason injury puts his 2026 season in jeopardy. That might mean the end of his career in Carolina since it is the final year of his contract. Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor, Georgia’s Monroe Freeling, and Utah’s Caleb Lomu are options if Carolina wants to replace Ekwonu. 
• Pass Rusher: The addition of Jaelan Phillips is a significant upgrade, but he’s had season-ending ACL and Achilles injuries in two of the last three years. Upgrading the depth behind Phillips and Nic Scourton would still be easily justified. 

Who Calls the Shots in Panthers Draft Room?

GM Dan Morgan (third year) previously served as assistant GM in Carolina under Scott Fitterer. Morgan has final say but likely leans heavily on others in the draft. Director of college scouting Jared Kirksey likely plays a key role in the draft due to Morgan’s limited scouting experience. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Panthers heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Ikem Ekwonu allowed 7.9% pressure rate, ranked 26th out of 34 qualified left tackles. 
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 17.9% of dropbacks, ranked 28th.
• Allowed 1.8 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 31st.
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 17% of carries, ranked 32nd.
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 13.5% of attempts, ranked 29th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 51 – Bryce Lance, WR, North Dakota State
• No. 83 – Malik Muhammad, CB, Texas

20. Dallas Cowboys, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Anthony Hill Jr, LB

Best Draft Targets for the Cowboys with the 20th pick:

• Cornerback: This position group was an area of weakness last year, but Dallas may have faith in DaRon Bland bouncing back and Shavon Revel Jr. improving now that he’s more than a year removed from ACL surgery. The fact that both of them are under contract for at least three more years makes it less likely Dallas addresses this with its first selection, but maybe the team will see value in Clemson's Avieon Terrell or Tennessee’s Jermod McCoy with this pick.  
• Linebacker: The Cowboys had Kenneth Murray and Logan Wilson wearing the green dot on defense last year, and both are gone. There's a chance Dallas still signs a veteran to a short-term contract, but it's looking increasingly likely this job gets filled in the draft. Texas' Anthony Hill Jr, Georgia's C.J. Allen, and Texas Tech's Jacob Rodriguez all have the leadership and communication skills needed to fill that role as a rookie.
• Pass Rusher: Dallas is likely to address this position with one of its two first-round picks. There’s probably more value in waiting until this selection, where it would be easier to justify Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell, Miami’s Akheem Mesidor, or Clemson’s T.J. Parker. 

See the 12th pick for more on the Cowboys' draft plans.

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 21-32

21. Pittsburgh Steelers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Kadyn Proctor, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Steelers with the 21st pick:

• Offensive Line: The Steelers are still trying to decide if Broderick Jones is their long-term left tackle. They’ll have to decide on his fifth-year option soon. Adding a lineman with versatile traits like Kadyn Proctor or Max Iheanachor might be a good way to approach this selection. They both have the traits to play guard and could probably win a job over Spencer Anderson immediately. But they also played tackle in college, and might push for Jones’ job now or down the road.  If they want a more traditional left tackle to compete with Jones, Clemson’s Blake Miller might be the ideal fit. 
• Ty Simpson: Did Pittsburgh learn from its Kenny Pickett mistake? The hiring of Mike McCarthy shows the team’s commitment to mediocrity holds firm. Simpson would be a risky selection given his lack of experience, but, since Pittsburgh clearly has no intention of going through a rebuilding process, it will be difficult for them to get near the top of the draft to address the quarterback need with a top-10 pick.
• Wide Receiver: The addition of Michael Pittman helps, but now the Steelers have two big outside weapons and could really use an upgrade in the slot. Makai Lemon would be the perfect fit if he slides. Jordyn Tyson might be an option, as he can play in the slot as well. KC Concepcion might be in the conversation. Denzel Boston will be highly regarded by most teams, but he wouldn’t add anything new to a receiver room already featuring Pittman and DK Metcalf.

Who Calls the Shots in Steelers Draft Room?

GM Omar Khan (fourth year) took over from Kevin Colbert, who ran the team for 23 years. Khan likely has final say over the roster, though it is a collaborative effort with assistant GM Andy Weidl (fourth year). Mike Tomlin previously had a strong voice, and Mike McCarthy will certainly be included, but he likely holds less influence due to his lack of familiarity with the Steelers’ process, which has remained largely unchanged for years.

Key Stats & Notes for the Steelers heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Gained 20 or more yards on 7.1% of dropbacks, ranked 24th.
• Allowed 4.0 yards per attempt to running backs with eight or more defenders in the box, ranked 25th.
• Allowed 7.9 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 26th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 53 – Keionte Scott, CB, Miami
• No. 76 – Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama
• No. 85 – Keyron Crawford, DL, Auburn
• No. 99 – Billy Schrauth, OG, Notre Dame

22. Los Angeles Chargers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Zion Young, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Chargers with the 22nd pick:

• Offensive Guard: The addition of Cole Strange on a two-year contract allows the Chargers to not feel forced to address the offensive line with this selection, but it certainly doesn’t preclude them from doing so.  Olaivavega Ioane would likely start over Strange or Trevor Penning. Converting a college tackle, such as Alabama's Kadyn Proctor, is also a possibility.
• Edge Rusher: 35-year-old Khalil Mack is back, but this could be an opportunity to add his eventual replacement. Miami’s Akheem Mesidor and Texas A&M's Cashius Howell are probably best suited to help immediately, but they’re older prospects with less upside. Since immediate help isn’t necessarily needed, the Chargers might prefer a younger developmental prospect like Keldric Faulk or Zion Young.
• Wide Receiver: It's not a glaring need, but you can't go wrong supporting a quarterback like Justin Herbert with more weapons. Adding another outside weapon to complement Ladd McConkey would be ideal. Washington's Denzel Boston could be an upgrade over Quentin Johnston. If one of the top three receivers (Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, or Makai Lemon) were to fall, it would be malpractice to pass them over.

Who Calls the Shots in Chargers Draft Room?

It’s unclear who has the final say over the roster, though it is assumed that power belongs to Jim Harbaugh (third year). However, the draft is likely run primarily by GM Joe Hortiz (third year), who was previously the Ravens' longtime director of college scouting.

Key Stats & Notes for the Chargers heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 29% of dropbacks, ranked 32nd.
• Mekhi Becton allowed 8.7% pressure rate, ranked 68th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 33% of carries, ranked 32nd.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 11.6% of carries by running backs, ranked 25th.
• Cam Hart allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 20.5 coverage snaps, ranked 73rd out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 55 – Christen Miller, DL, Georgia
• No. 86 – Daylen Everette, CB, Georgia

23. Philadelphia Eagles, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Max Iheanachor, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Eagles with the 23rd pick:

• Edge Defender: The Eagles' pass rush was adequate, but its run defense was a liability. Adding an edge defender who can defend the run would be a welcome upgrade. Philly isn’t afraid of drafting and developing players, which might put Clemson’s T.J. Parker in the mix. The team has also had success with undersized pass-rushers, potentially making Cashius Howell a fit.
• Offensive Tackle: Is this the year the Eagles draft Lane Johnson‘s replacement? Since Tyler Steen hasn't performed well enough to lock down the starting job at right guard, it would make sense to draft someone capable of pushing Steen for that role as a rookie while also being the long-term plan at right tackle. Kadyn Proctor and Max Iheanachor are two options with the traits to play guard or tackle.
• Tight End: Eight-year veteran Dallas Goedert was re-signed, but it was only a one-year deal. Oregon's Kenyon Sadiq would be an upgrade in terms of athleticism, but he probably isn't ready to be the all-around contributor that Goedert is for the Eagles. Re-signing Goedert to a short-term deal while also drafting Sadiq might be the ideal scenario.
• Wide Receiver: Rumors about A.J. Brown‘s uncertain future with the team make this a potential need worth mentioning. The ideal replacement would be Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson, but that would likely require a trade-up. Washington's Denzel Boston could also be a good fit.

Who Calls the Shots in Eagles Draft Room? 

GM Howie Roseman (17th year) has final say over the roster. Roseman has held the title of general manager and/or executive vice president of football operations since 2010, but he did not control the roster during Andy Reid‘s and Chip Kelly’s tenures. Roseman gained full control of personnel decisions in 2016.

Key Stats & Notes for the Eagles heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.8% of dropbacks, ranked 30th.
• Landon Dickerson allowed 7.4% pressure rate, ranked 61st out of 70 qualified guards.
• Tyler Steen allowed 6.5% pressure rate, ranked 56th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 29% of carries, ranked 25th.
• Running backs averaged 2.7 yards per attempt against boxes with eight or more defenders, ranked 32nd.
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 21% of carries, ranked 28th.
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 13.5% of attempts, ranked 28th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 54 – Caleb Tiernan, OT, Northwestern
• No. 68 – Chris Bell, WR, Louisville
• No. 98 – Sam Roush, TE, Stanford

24. Cleveland Browns, Top Draft Pick Prediction: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Blake Miller, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Browns with the 24th pick:

• Wide Receiver: The receiving corps was a mess this year due to Jerry Jeudy taking a significant step backward. A big, outside receiver would be the ideal addition, likely putting Washington's Denzel Boston on Cleveland’s radar. Jordyn Tyson, whose brother plays for the Cleveland Cavaliers, would also be a good fit if he’s still on the board. If they want to add someone who is more of a weapon after the catch on underneath routes, USC’s Makai Lemon or Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion will be on their radar.
• Left tackle: The Browns would probably be fine with playing Dawand Jones at left tackle, but he’s struggled to stay healthy. Kadyn Proctor and Caleb Lomu played left tackle in college and could push Jones for that job immediately. Blake Miller, a Cleveland native, played on the right side in college but has the athletic traits to move to left tackle.
• Ty Simpson: The Browns probably aren't desperate enough to make this selection, but the quarterback of the future is not on the roster, so they will certainly take a close look at Simpson this offseason.

See the 6th pick for more on the Browns' draft plans.

25. Chicago Bears, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Caleb Banks, DL

Best Draft Targets for the Bears with the 25th pick:

• Safety: In free agency, the Bears added Coby Bryant to play free safety and Cam Lewis to pencil into the strong safety slot. Lewis has minimal starting experience, however, and is likely just a placeholder. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and Dillon Thieneman both fit Dennis Allen’s defense well. Although neither has much experience in the slot, they would be taking over for Jaquan Brisker who played just 8% of his snaps in the slot last season.
• Caleb Banks or Peter Woods: This is a decent class of defensive tackles, but many of the top prospects are best suited to play nose tackle. Chicago’s multiple-front defense needs someone with more versatility, like Banks or Woods. Both players underwhelmed relative to their talent in college, but have more upside than most players who will be coming off the board in this range. 
• Cornerback: Chicago needs a physical outside corner to replace Tyrique Stevenson, who lost his starting job late in the 2025 season. This class is light on physical corners, but Clemson's Avieon Terrell might be appealing. Tennessee’s Jermod McCoy and Tennessee's Colton Hood could be in the mix as well.
• Edge Rusher: Of Chicago’s many needs on defense, this is the one position that has not been addressed at all in free agency. Missouri's Zion Young and Texas A&M's Cashius Howell should be high on Chicago's board.

Who Calls the Shots in Bears Draft Room? 

GM Ryan Poles (fourth year) has final say over roster construction. Poles was previously with the Chiefs since 2009, working under GM Brett Veach as director of player personnel.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bears heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 14% of dropbacks, ranked 32nd.
• Generated a 29.7% pressure rate on non-blitzes, ranked 28th.
• Allowed 1.8 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 30th.
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 15.6% of attempts, ranked 26th. 
• Allowed 4.4 yards per attempt to running backs with eight or more defenders in the box, ranked 30th.
• Allowed 7.7 yards per attempt when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 24th. 
• Tyrique Stevenson allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 21.9 coverage snaps, ranked 72nd out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 57 – Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina
• No. 60 – Domonique Orange, DT, Iowa State
• No. 89 – Logan Jones, C, Iowa

26. Buffalo Bills, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Zion Young, EDGE, Missouri

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Denzel Boston, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Bills with the 26th pick:

• Pass Rusher: Leading pass-rusher Greg Rousseau is locked up to a long-term deal, and the addition of Bradley Chubb will help. But depth at the position remains an issue, and the Bills should still consider dipping into this deep class of pass rushers. It would be justified to wait until Day 2, but Buffalo could fall in love with someone like Miami's Akheem Mesidor, Missouri's Zion Young, or Clemson's T.J. Parker. All three have the size Buffalo typically covets in edge defenders.
• Wide Receiver: The addition of D.J. Moore is going to help, but the Bills could still use an upgrade over Keon Coleman on the outside. Denzel Boston has the size and reliable hands to take over Coleman’s role.
• Safety: Buffalo brought in C.J. Gardner-Johnson on a one-year contract, but that’s just an insurance policy in case a long-term solution can’t be found in the draft. Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and Oregon's Dillon Thieneman would both be good fits to replace Taylor Rapp.
• Linebacker: Georgia’s CJ Allen or Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez might be good replacement options for Matt Milano.

Who Calls the Shots in Bills Draft Room? 

GM Brandon Beane (ninth year) officially has final say over the roster. Former head coach Sean McDermott’s opinion carried significant weight 一 McDermott and Beane were hired together in 2017 and also worked together for six seasons in Carolina 一 but Joe Brady likely does not have as much say given his inexperience and more limited relationship with Beane. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Bills heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Spencer Brown allowed 7.9% pressure rate, ranked 33rd out of 38 qualified right tackles. 
• Allowed 1.5 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 26th.
• Allowed 4.4 yards per attempt to running backs with eight or more defenders in the box, ranked 29th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 91 – Genesis Smith, S, Arizona

27. San Francisco 49ers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Caleb Lomu, OT

Best Draft Targets for the 49ers with the 27th pick:

• Edge Rusher: The 49ers have Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams on the edge but with Bosa coming off an ACL injury it would make sense to improve the depth. The fact that no one has been added in free agency indicates it's a position the team is hoping to address through the draft. Since San Francisco is in win-now, they are likely among the teams willing to strongly consider an older prospect like Miami’s Akheem Mesidor who fits well into the 49ers’ four-man front.
• Offensive Line: The 49ers will probably bring back Trent Williams. Until his contract situation is worked out, however, we have to assume the 49ers are considering offensive tackles with this selection. Caleb Lomu and Kadyn Proctor are both viable options, and they would both be well served by spending a year learning from Williams.
• Defensive Line: The 49ers' interior defensive line was a mess last year. Jordan Elliott and Kalia Davis are gone, allowing the team to reset the unit. Ohio State’s Kayden McDonald might be in consideration, though his skillset overlaps with last year’s second-round pick Alfred Collins. San Francisco might also consider Peter Woods, who is a more athletic interior presence, unless the team is satisfied with the addition of Osa Odighizuwa in that role.
• Wide Receiver: San Francisco’s patchwork receiving corps worked out fine last year, and they added Mike Evans in free agency. Still, a longer-term fix could be in the cards. Kyle Shanahan favors receivers who are dangerous after the catch, which likely puts KC Concepcion and Zachariah Branch on the Niners’ radar. Trading up for Jordyn Tyson might also be an option.

Who Calls the Shots in 49ers Draft Room? 

GM John Lynch (ninth year) has final say over personnel decisions, but he works closely with Kyle Shanahan.

Key Stats & Notes for the 49ers heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Spencer Buford allowed 8.3% pressure rate, ranked 66th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 16.3% of dropbacks, ranked 29th.
• Allowed 1.6 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 27th.
• Allowed 10 or more yards on 12.5% of carries by running backs, ranked 30th.
• Allowed 75% completion rate when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 27th.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 58 – De'Zhaun Stribling, WR, Ole Miss

28. Houston Texans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Peter Woods, DL, Clemson

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Woods

Best Draft Targets for the Texans with the 28th pick:

• Defensive Tackle: The Texans have depth at the position, but Sheldon Rankins is 32 years old, and Tommy Togai is entering his final contract year. Peter Woods and Caleb Banks might be a good fits given their athleticism. Since Houston rarely uses a traditional nose tackle, Kadyen McDonald probably isn’t on their radar, even though he is likely to come off the board in this range.
• Pass Rusher: Houston does not have an edge defender under contract beyond the 2026 season. So while it wasn’t a weakness of the roster, if Houston wants to maintain its identity on defense, it will need to start investing in the future now. This is a deep class of pass rushers, with Missouri’s Zion Young, Oklahoma’s R Mason Thomas, and Clemson’s T.J. Parker all potential options for Houston. Arm length is a concern with some pass-rushers in this range, but it is likely not a measurement Houston's front office weighs heavily in edge-rusher evaluations. 

Who Calls the Shots in Texans Draft Room? 

GM Nick Caserio has final say over the roster. This is Caserio’s sixth year with Houston, but likely only his fourth with full control 一 former executive VP Jack Easterby (who played a confusing role in the organization) previously held significant power as well. Assistant GM James Liipfert is the team’s former director of college scouting, and likely plays a significant role in the draft process as well. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Texans heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 29% of carries, ranked 24th.
• Running backs averaged 2.8 yards per attempt against boxes with eight or more defenders, ranked 31st.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 38 – Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
• No. 59 – Keylan Rutledge, OG, Georgia Tech
• No. 69 – Dani Dennis-Sutton, EDGE, Penn State

29. Kansas City Chiefs, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Hood 

Best Draft Targets for the Chiefs with the 29th pick:

• Cornerback: The Chiefs acquired this pick in exchange for Trent McDuffie and are likely to turn around and use it on a worse, albeit cheaper, replacement. Kansas City prefers younger prospects with developmental potential, likely putting Colton Hood and Jermod McCoy high on their board.
• Right Tackle: If the Chiefs don’t land a right tackle with the ninth pick, they could target Blake Miller with this selection who has the length they covet in offensive tackles.

See the 9th pick for more on the Chiefs' draft plans.

30. Miami Dolphins, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Anthony Hill Jr, LB, Texas

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Jacob Rodriguez, LB

Best Draft Targets for the Dolphins with the 30th pick:

• Linebacker: Miami used Tyrel Dodson as their green-dot linebacker in the middle of the defense, but he’s in his final contract year and could easily be upgraded. Drafting someone like Anthony Hill Jr, CJ Allen, or Jacob Rodriguez to play a lesser role as a rookie before taking over Dodson’s responsibilities would make sense. 
• Wide Receiver: Signing Malik Willis and promptly trading all your receivers doesn’t make a ton of sense if there’s hope of developing Willis into the long-term solution. Adding a potential No. 1 weapon like Denzel Boston could be the move with this selection. 
• Cornerback: The depth chart is full, but it’s hard to guess who’s going to start. It would be surprising if a rookie corner isn’t added at some point in the top 100 picks. Colton Hood, Avieon Terrell, and Jermod McCoy are potential options. 
• Literally Anything: All signs point to a tank job in Miami. It probably makes sense to just take the best available player. There are very few players locked into starting roles, and even those who are aren’t going to be in Miami the next time the team is competitive. So drafting a developmental prospect behind them is still an option.   

See the 11th pick for more on the Dolphins' draft plans.

31. New England Patriots, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Omar Cooper Jr, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Patriots with the 31st pick:

• Right Tackle: 35-year-old Morgan Moses is fine for now, but New England could use this selection to add some depth and his eventual replacement. Arizona State's Max Iheanachor and Alabama’s Kaydn Proctor might be good fits.
• Wide Receiver: The Patriots have to give Drake Maye more support, even after adding Romeo Doubs. Washington’s Denzel Boston and Tennessee’s Chris Brazzell II are downfield weapons who would be good fits for the offense. Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. is a more versatile weapon who might be a good fit at slot receiver in New England.

Who Calls the Shots in Patriots Draft Room?

Head coach Mike Vrabel (second year) has final say over personnel decisions. The team never hired a GM after Bill Belichick left, leaving Eliot Wolf in charge. Wolf remains the Executive VP of Player Personnel. Ryan Cowden, a former scout who now serves under Wolf as the VP of Player Personnel, is also likely involved. Director of College Scouting Tony Kinkela is in his first year on the job after getting promoted from a scouting role.

Key Stats & Notes for the Patriots heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 30% of carries, ranked 26th.
• Allowed 74% completion rate when the defense failed to generate pressure, ranked 26th. 

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 63 – Malachi Fields, WR, Notre Dame
• No. 95 – Rayshaun Benny, DT, Michigan

32. Seattle Seahawks, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Johnson

Best Draft Targets for the Seahawks with the 32nd pick:

• Defensive Back: Seattle lost Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen from the secondary this offseason. Dillon Thieneman could be an ideal replacement for Bryant at free safety. Avieon Terrell, Colton Hood, and Chris Johnson are options at cornerback. 
• Pass Rusher: Seattle’s pass-rush unit was effective this year, but most of the key players are over the age of 30, necessitating a youth movement in the defensive front. There’s a long list of fringe first-round prospects, including Miami’s Akheem Mesidor, Clemson’s T.J. Parker, and Missouri’s Zion Young. 
• Wide Receiver: Seattle's receiving corps will return, so there’s no need to force a selection in the first round. But if Seattle sees the right complementary piece to Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the board, a receiver could be justified. Washington’s Denzel Boston is an intriguing option who roughly fits into the DK Metcalf mold.

Who Calls the Shots in Seahawks Draft Room? 

GM John Schneider is entering his 17th year in this role, but it will be just his third with final say over the roster, as Pete Carroll previously held that power. Schneider does not have a background in college scouting, so VP of Player Personnel Trent Kirchner, VP of Player Acquisition Matt Berry, and Director of College Scouting Aaron Hineline likely have strong voices in the draft room due to their experience on the scouting side of things. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Seahawks heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Abraham Lucas allowed 6.2% pressure rate, ranked 26th out of 38 qualified right tackles. 
• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 32% of carries, ranked 31st.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 64 – A.J. Haulcy, S, LSU
• No. 96 – Jonah Coleman, RB, Washington

Teams Without First-Round Picks in 2026

47. Indianapolis Colts, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Bud Clark, S, TCU

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Malachi Lawrence, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Colts with the 47th pick:

• Safety: Indy needs to replace Nick Cross, and there should be a few options available on Day 2. Ballard loves mature, experienced prospects, which likely steers him toward TCU’s Bud Clark, a three-year captain who played over 2,700 snaps in college.
• Pass Rusher: The Colts have lost free agents Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam and haven’t added anyone of significance. This is a deep class of pass rushers, so there will likely be some good options available, such as Malachi Lawrence, Romello Height, or R Mason Thomas.
• Linebacker: With Zaire Franklin and Germaine Pratt gone, Indy needs to rebuild at linebacker. Cincinnati’s Jake Golday would be a good fit who could help the run defense. Georgia’s CJ Allen or Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez would be candidates to wear the green dot in Franklin’s role.

Who Calls the Shots in Colts Draft Room? 

GM Chris Ballard (10th year) has final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Colts heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• 11 of 14 first and second-round picks since 2017 have spent at least four years in college.
• 10 of 14 first and second-round picks since 2017 have generated a 9.0 RAS or higher.
• Gained 20 or more yards on 7.4% of dropbacks, ranked 23rd.
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.4% of dropbacks, ranked 26th.
• Allowed 1.4 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, ranked 23rd.
• Allowed 6.0 yards per attempt to running backs with six or more defenders in the box, ranked 26th.

More Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 78 – Kaleb Elarms-Orr, LB, TCU

48. Atlanta Falcons, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Malachi Lawrence, EDGE, UCF

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Romello Height, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Falcons with the 48th pick:

• Edge Rusher: Due to James Pearce Jr’s legal issues, Atlanta probably needs to address the pass-rush unit again. Fortunately, there are plenty of speed-rushers in this class who could step into Pearce’s role. Romello Height, Cashius Howell, and Malachi Lawrence are all good options.
• Linebacker: With Kaden Ellis gone, who is going to start and wear the green dot in the middle of Atlanta’s defense? Georgia’s CJ Allen, Texas’ Anthony Hill, and Alabama’s Deontae Lawson wore the green dot in college and could be good fits.
• Cornerback: Both starters, A.J. Terrell and Mike Hughes, remain under contract, but Terrell hasn’t lived up to expectations since his extension, and Hughes was a liability last year. Atlanta might also be interested in a slot corner, as last year’s fourth-round pick Billy Bowman struggled in limited action due to injuries. Miami’s Keionte Scott would be the ideal pick for that role. 
• Wide Receiver: The Falcons need a capable No. 2 who can stretch the field. Georgia’s Zachariah Branch could provide the speed Atlanta needs, though he’s more of a weapon after the catch than a downfield threat. Tennessee’s Chris Brazzell II has the size/speed combination to stretch the field.
• Offensive Line: Atlanta has a ton of money invested in an aging and underperforming offensive line. It isn’t necessarily an area that must be addressed immediately, but the Falcons will likely start sniffing around some younger, cheaper options. 

Who Calls the Shots in Falcons Draft Room? 

Although the Falcons made the high-profile move of naming Matt Ryan as team president, Ryan has stated that first-year GM Ian Cunningham controls the roster. Cunningham joins the team from Chicago, where he was Ryan Poles’ assistant GM. He previously worked under Howie Roseman in Philadelphia and rose through the scouting ranks. Cunningham has retained incumbent Director of Scouting Tumbo Abanikanda, who will likely play a critical role in the draft process. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Falcons heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• 34-year-old Jake Matthews allowed 6.9% pressure rate, ranked 24th out of 34 qualified left tackles. 
• Chris Lindstrom allowed 7.6% pressure rate, ranked 65th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Running backs were hit behind the line of scrimmage on 30% of carries, ranked 27th.
• Generated a 31.7% pressure rate on non-blitzes, ranked 23rd.
• Stuffed opposing running backs for zero or negative yards on 13.6% of attempts, ranked 27th. 
• Mike Hughes allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 28.6 coverage snaps, ranked 60th out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.

More Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 79 – Keith Abney II, CB, Arizona State

52. Green Bay Packers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Jake Golday, LB

Best Draft Targets for the Packers with the 52nd pick:

• Offensive Line: The Packers have a serviceable offensive line if everyone is healthy, but injuries were an issue last year and depth is lacking. This is not a strong offensive line class, so Green Bay might choose to address this position early while there’s still some talent on the board. Utah’s Caleb Lomu and Northwestern’s Caleb Tiernan are potential offensive tackle targets. Chase Bisontis of Texas A&M and Emmanuel Pregnon of Oregon should be on their radar for the interior offensive line.
• Linebacker: The addition of Zaire Franklin greatly diminished this need, but Green Bay often thinks ahead with its draft selections. Franklin has two years remaining on his contract, but adding another linebacker would improve the depth and give the team time to groom another defensive leader behind Franklin. Texas’ Anthony Hill Jr, Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez, and Georgia’s CJ Allen might be the ideal targets, but Cincinnati’s Jake Golday fits the mold as a developmental prospect.
• Defensive Tackle: The defensive line depth chart remains mostly intact for 2026, but Devonte Wyatt, Colby Wooden, and Karl Brooks are all set to hit free agency after the upcoming season. It would make sense for Green Bay to add to the defensive line this offseason to avoid needing to rebuild the entire depth chart next year. 
• Cornerback: The Packers have only one cornerback under contract beyond the 2026 season (Benjamin St-Juste), so this will almost certainly be a position addressed relatively early in the draft.

Who Calls the Shots in Packers Draft Room? 

GM Brian Gutekunst (ninth year) has final say over the roster, but Gutekunst, director of football operations Russ Ball, and head coach Matt LaFleur all report directly to president/CEO Ed Policy. This will be Policy’s first offseason in his new role, which was previously filled by Mark Murphy. This structure theoretically gives more personnel influence to Ball and LaFleur than if they reported directly to the GM, as most front offices are organized.

Key Stats & Notes for the Packers heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 27% of dropbacks, ranked 31st.
• Aaron Banks allowed 6.9% pressure rate, ranked 58th out of 70 qualified guards.
• Running backs averaged 0.9 yards before contact per carry, ranked 30th.
• Romeo Doubs had a 10.7% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 30th out of 41 qualified receivers. 
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 22% of carries, ranked 27th.
• Carrington Valentine allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 19.4 coverage snaps, ranked 76th out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks.

More Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 84 – Treydan Stukes, CB, Arizona

56. Jacksonville Jaguars, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Lee Hunter, DL, Texas Tech

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S

Best Draft Targets for the Jaguars with the 56th pick:

• Defensive Tackle: Run defense was a strength of the team last year, but Arik Armstead and Davon Hamilton are both entering the final year of their contracts. Addressing this need a year early would be a wise move to ensure it remains a strength. This should be a strong position group on Day 2, with Georgia’s Christen Miller, Florida’s Caleb Banks, and Texas Tech’s Lee Hunter among the top prospects potentially available. 
• Safety: The Jaguars have Antonio Johnson and Eric Murray returning, but Andrew Wingard, who played 1,000 snaps last season, is gone. Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and TCU’s Bud Clark can play in the box and the deep secondary, making them good fits for Wingard’s role. 
• Cornerback: The Jaguars re-signed Montaric Brown but lost Greg Newsome to free agency. The plan is to play Travis Hunter at cornerback next year (where he should have been all along). So this isn’t a glaring need, but improving the depth behind Hunter as he recovers from knee surgery would be smart.
• Interior Offensive Line: The run game was ineffective despite improved backfield depth. Finding at least one upgrade to the interior offensive line should be a priority. Texas A&M’s Chase Bisontis and Oregon’s Emmanuel Pregnon are potential options.

Who Calls the Shots in Jaguars Draft Room? 

It’s unclear. GM James Gladstone, head coach Liam Coen, and VP of football operations Tony Boselli 一 all hired before the 2025 season to roles they have never previously held elsewhere 一 report directly to owner Shad Khan. This inevitably sets up a power struggle that will play out over the next few seasons. In the short term, they say it will be a collaborative effort. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Jaguars heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Running backs were stuffed for zero or negative yards on 18.5% of attempts, ranked 23rd.
• Running backs averaged 3.2 yards per attempt against boxes with eight or more defenders, ranked 27th.
• Contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 23% of carries, ranked 22nd.

Day 2 Mock Draft Selections

• No. 81 – Davison Igbinosun, CB, Ohio State
• No. 88 – Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson
• No. 100 – Louis Moore, S, Indiana

62. Denver Broncos, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt

Previous selection in Mock Draft 3.0: Bryce Lance, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Broncos with the 62nd pick:

• Tight End: Denver has been spending time with a number of tight ends during the pre-draft process, indicating there’s serious interest in upgrading the position. Eli Stowers would be the most likely target in the second round. The Broncos met with Stowers at the combine and brought him in for a visit.
• Wide Receiver: The addition of Jaylen Waddle obviously helps, but the best way to continue developing Bo Nix is to give him every advantage possible. Another bigger outside weapon would be ideal. Since Waddle and Sutton will command most of the targets, Denver is a team that could take a chance on the upside of a developmental prospect like North Dakota State’s Bryce Lance. 
• Linebacker: The Broncos re-signed Alex Singleton, but only to a two-year contract. This might be the ideal time to bring in a young linebacker to compete for playing time, learn the system, and eventually take on Singleton’s leadership role in two years. Anthony Hill Jr. and CJ Allen would be the best fits for that role if they slide further than expected. Alabama’s Deontae Lawson or Missouri’s Josiah Trotter could also be in the mix. 
• Running Back: Denver reached for RJ Harvey in the second round last year, but if the team believes someone like Jadarian Price is enough of an upgrade, it could go back to the well.  

Who Calls the Shots in Broncos Draft Room? 

It’s unclear. GM George Paton (sixth year) initially had final say over personnel decisions, but the hiring of Sean Payton (fourth year) might have changed that a few years ago. Payton previously had final say in New Orleans and likely would not have taken a job where he did not have significant control over the roster. However, the Broncos have been significantly less aggressive in the draft than the Saints under Payton, an indication that Paton is still running the draft room. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Broncos heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:

• Running backs averaged 3.1 yards per attempt against boxes with eight or more defenders, ranked 29th.
• Riley Moss allowed a reception at 10 or more yards downfield once every 28.8 coverage snaps, ranked 59th out of 80 qualified outside cornerbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.

3.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Mar 23)

2.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Mar 2)

1.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Feb 9)

This season, I've been breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup. 

Let’s dive into the final game of the season, with Miami and Indiana squaring off for the National Championship.

Miami vs. Indiana, current line:

• Indiana -8.5 at Novig

Miami vs. Indiana Best Bet Prediction:

It has been a magical postseason run for Miami, but this matchup looks like a mismatch in all phases of the game 一 take Indiana against the spread. 

• Miami vs. Indiana, best line: Indiana -8.5

» Bet it now at Novig: Indiana -8.5 points

When Miami is on Offense

Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson calls a conservative but pass-heavy offense, relying heavily on Carson Beck’s ability to make sound decisions and distribute the ball on underneath routes. 

In the semifinals against Ole Miss, Dawson arguably relied too heavily on the passing attack when Ole Miss clearly didn’t have the run defense to stop Mark Fletcher. 

That likely won’t be an issue against Indiana, however, as the Hoosiers are likely to dominate on the ground and force Miami to attack through the air. 

Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions on the run game matchup:

• Miami: ranked 71st in yards before contact
• Indiana: ranked 3rd in yards before contact allowed
• Miami: ranked 43rd in yards after contact
• Indiana: ranked 15th in yards after contact allowed

Opposing defenses tend to stack the box at an elevated rate against the Hurricanes, partially due to Miami’s formations but also a lack of respect for the downfield passing attack.

This is a problematic trend for Miami based on these stacked-box numbers:

• Miami: 4.1 yards per attempt, ranked 85th
• Indiana: 2.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 4th

Additionally, the Hoosiers have stopped ball carriers for zero or negative yards 34% of the time with a stacked box, the nation’s second-highest rate. 

So, unless Miami leans heavily into spread formations, the Hoosiers will likely stack the box consistently and shut down Fletcher and the Canes' rushing attack. 

As a result, Beck will need to carry the offense, which will require help from his offensive line. 

Fortunately for Beck, Miami has the best offensive line in the nation and should be able contain Indiana’s pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed
• Indiana: ranked 9th in pressure rate generated

Indiana will also be without two of its top pass rushers, Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley, though that was significantly less of an issue against Oregon than anticipated. 

The Hoosiers didn’t miss Wyatt and Daley in large part due to the emergence of Daniel Ndukwe, who generated 5  pressures, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble against the Ducks after registering just 4 pressures and 0 sacks through the team’s first 14 games. 

Incredibly, Indiana generated an identical 50% pressure rate against the Ducks in the semifinals as it did earlier this season when both Wyatt and Daley were active. 

Before those games, Oregon had not been pressured at that rate since the 2020 season. 

It’s also worth noting that Oregon’s offensive line had been dominant this year, entering the game ranked sixth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed. 

So while Miami does appear to have an edge in this area, the Canes should not underestimate Indiana’s ability to get pressure on Beck. 

Although Miami throws the ball at a high rate, it’s still a conservative offense due to the rate at which Beck throws to underneath routes. 

Miami’s pass attempts have been five or fewer yards downfield 56% of the time, the seventh-highest rate in the FBS.

This is a problematic approach against Indiana, which thrives at limiting production on shorter throws. 

On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Indiana is allowing just 4.6 yards per attempt (ranked 22nd) and 5.9 yards per completion (ranked 13th), per Sports Info Solutions. 

The best way to beat Indiana, theoretically, would be to protect the quarterback long enough to attack downfield at a high rate. 

Miami, potentially, has the offensive line to attempt this strategy, but Dawson has been hesitant to trust Beck with a downfield-heavy game plan this year. 

Outside the red zone, Miami throws 15 or more yards downfield just 20% of the time, ranked 104th. 

However, Indiana ranks 85th in completion rate allowed at that depth, so it’s a potential area where Miami could gain an edge if Dawson is willing to get more aggressive. 

Miami has, presumably, not leaned more on the downfield passing game in an effort to protect Beck from himself. 

Beck has thrown 23 interceptions over the last two seasons and has a history of putting the ball in harm’s way. 

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, opposing defenses have generated a 20% ball-hawk rate against Miami (ranked 105th), a strong indication there’s nothing fluky about Beck’s high interception total. 

Beck will need to be particularly careful against Indiana’s secondary, which excels at getting their hands on the ball. 

On throws at that depth, the Hoosiers rank 22nd with a 21% ball-hawk rate. 

So while the downfield passing attack is potentially an area where Miami can gain an edge, it comes with great risk and is not likely an approach the Canes will lean into unless the scoreboard dictates a more aggressive approach. 

Finally, Miami’s lack of discipline 一 which nearly cost the Hurricanes a spot in this game 一 needs to be addressed. 

Check out where Mario Cristobal’s teams have ranked in penalty yardage per game:

• 2025 Miami: ranked 85th
• 2024 Miami: ranked 120th
• 2023 Miami: ranked 95th
• 2022 Miami: ranked 94th
• 2021 Oregon: ranked 111th 
• 2020 Oregon: ranked 61st (six-game season)
• 2019 Oregon: ranked 103rd
• 2018 Oregon: ranked 42nd

Cristobal runs one of the least disciplined programs in the country, and he’ll be going up against arguably the most fundamentally sound program in the sport. 

Indiana ranks second in penalty yardage per game, and Curt Cignetti’s teams have never ranked worse than 28th during his time in the FBS.

You can’t afford to shoot yourself in the foot against Indiana, and Cristobal’s tenure at Miami has been defined by mistakes. 

When Indiana is on Offense

Indiana runs a balanced offense leaning heavily on RPOs under coordinator Mike Shanahan, who has been in the same role under Curt Cignetti since the 2021 season at James Madison. 

Shanahan’s use of RPOs and quick dropbacks will be critical in this matchup as a way to limit the effect of Miami’s pass-rush unit. 

On the surface, it looks like Miami’s pass rush has an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Indiana: ranked 16th in pressure rate allowed
• Miami: ranked 2nd in pressure rate generated

However, Miami has been vulnerable to quick dropbacks, which is a critical piece of the Hoosier offense. 

Indiana uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) 47% of the time, the 20th-highest rate in the nation. 

Miami only ranks 59th in pressure rate generated on those quick dropbacks, making it unlikely that Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain terrorize Fernando Mendoza in the same way they did Ohio State’s Julian Sayin earlier in the playoffs. 

This was a factor in the Fiesta Bowl, as Ole Miss’ heavy usage of quick dropbacks limited Miami’s pass-rush production, allowing for just one sack of Trinidad Chambliss. 

The defense’s dropoff against quick passers has been a season-long trend for Miami.

There have been five quarterbacks who have posted an average time to throw under 2.7 seconds against the Hurricanes: Chambliss, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, Louisville’s Miller Moss, SMU’s Kevin Jennings, and Pitt’s Mason Heintschel. 

Take a look at their numbers against Miami compared to everyone else, via PFF:

Mendoza’s average time to throw sits at 2.72 seconds on the season, but because quick dropbacks are already an integral part of the offense, it’s easy for the team to adjust and lower that number when necessary. 

However, Mendoza will need to stand in the pocket when the Hoosiers want to attack downfield, and that’s where Miami has a clear advantage. 

Take a look at these numbers on traditional dropbacks, via Sports Info Solutions:

• Indiana: ranked 46th in pressure rate allowed
• Miami: ranked 2nd in pressure rate generated

For Indiana to avoid the need for traditional dropbacks, they will need to avoid obvious passing situations. 

The Hoosiers have been successful at avoiding those situations in part due to their run game, but also due to incredible production on short throws. 

When throwing five or fewer yards downfield, Indiana averages 7.9 yards per attempt, leading the nation. 

Miami is allowing 4.9 yards per attempt on throws at that depth (ranked 41st), making this an area where the Hoosiers might have an edge and further enhancing the odds they can negate the Canes’ pass rush with quick, short throws. 

The run game should also help Indiana stay ahead of the sticks thanks to its ability to avoid negative plays. 

The Hoosiers tend to prefer running from heavier formations, inviting stacked boxes, which is a decent strategy against Miami.

Although Miami’s defensive front is elite against the pass, it doesn’t get into the backfield with the same consistency against the run. 

When lined up with a stacked boxed 一 which opponents have done 52% of the time against Indiana 一 Miami only brings the ball carrier down at or behind the line of scrimmage 18% of the time, ranked 79th. 

Although Miami has been dominant against lesser competition, the better teams on its schedule have been able to avoid third-and-long situations due to some of these weaknesses. 

Overall, Miami ranks 20th in third-and-long force rate, but six teams have faced third-and-long less than 25% of the time against the Hurricanes. 

Indiana, however, has excelled against everyone, ranking second in third-and-long avoidance while only facing third-and-longs at a rate higher than 25% once (Penn State). 

If Miami can’t put Indiana in those tough down-and-distance situations, it will be difficult to get the Hoosiers off the field. 

Final Thoughts on Indiana vs. Miami Best Bets

This is a large spread to cover against a good defense, but if Miami can’t consistently run the ball, the game could gradually snowball out of control, so let’s take Indiana against the spread. 

This season, I've been breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup. 

Let’s dive into a regular-season rematch in the Peach Bowl between Oregon and Indiana.  

Oregon vs. Indiana, current line:

• Indiana -3.5 at Novig

Oregon vs. Indiana Best Bet Prediction:

The first meeting was mostly a defensive struggle that came down to the wire, so let’s take the underdog and play Oregon against the spread.

• Oregon vs. Indiana, best line: Oregon +3.5

» Bet it now at Novig: Oregon +3.5 points

When Oregon is on Offense

Oregon runs a balanced offense under coordinator Will Stein, who will be leaving the Ducks after they’re eliminated to take the head coaching job at Kentucky. 

When these teams met in October, the Ducks were surprisingly effective on the ground against a nasty Indiana run defense. 

Although the official box score shows Oregon averaged just 2.7 yards per attempt, that stat was dramatically skewed by 6 sacks. 

Oregon running backs averaged 5.0 yards per carry against Indiana, the most allowed by the Hoosiers all year. 

One of the reasons for the Ducks' success was their ability to avoid early contact. 

According to Sports Info Solutions, Indiana contacted Oregon running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage just 25% of the time.

The Hoosiers' next lowest rate was 39%, and they ranked third in the country with an average early contact rate of 55%.

Oregon’s rushing attack has only improved since that meeting, as the Ducks have figured out their strength is lining up in heavier formations. 

Through the Indiana game, 52% of the Ducks' handoffs occurred when in formations with 12 or 21 personnel, but that rate has jumped to 65% in the weeks since. 

It has been a winning strategy for Oregon, as it’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry from 12 and 21 personnel compared to 5.5 in all other formations, per Sports Info Solutions. 

Although Indiana’s run defense has been strong against all types of schemes, it has been slightly less dominant against these heavier formations:

• Against 12 and 21 personnel: 3.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 18th
• Against all others: 3.2 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 5th

As for the passing game, protecting Dante Moore will be critical if Oregon is to improve upon its production from the previous matchup. 

Indiana generated a 50% pressure rate against the Ducks last time, the highest rate Oregon had allowed since a 2020 game against UCLA. 

However, these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions indicate it should be a fair fight in the trenches:

• Oregon: ranked 6th in pressure rate allowed
• Indiana: ranked 13th in pressure rate generated

The biggest concern for Indiana is its depth.

The Hoosiers will be without edge rusher Stephen Daley, who was lost to an injury during the Big Ten title game

Daley had begun the year as part of the defensive line rotation, but stepped into a starting role when Kellan Wyatt was lost for the year in October. 

Both Daley and Wyatt were active when these teams met in Week 7, combining for 7 pressures and 1.5 sacks. 

Daley’s absence in the Rose Bowl mostly went unnoticed due to Indiana’s dominance of Alabama, but the Hoosiers’ pass-rush production dropped significantly. 

Indiana generated a decent 34% pressure rate on the day, but much of that production came late after Alabama backup Austin Mack was forced into the game. 

Before his injury, Ty Simpson had faced pressure on just 21% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate Indiana generated against an individual quarterback this season (minimum 10 dropbacks), per Sports Info Solutions. 

It should also be noted that Alabama was not known for its pass protection this season 一 Simpson ranked 60th in pressure rate faced at 33% 一 so a mediocre performance by the Hoosiers’ pass-rush unit is tough to explain beyond Daley’s absence. 

If Moore can spend more time in the pocket, it should help open up Oregon’s downfield passing attack, which struggled in the previous matchup. 

In October’s meeting, Moore was just 4 for 11 on throws of 10 or more yards downfield, his lowest completion rate of the year at that depth.

However, he was under pressure on 8 of those attempts. 

For the year, only 28% of Moore’s throws at that depth have been under pressure, and he’s completing 64% of those attempts, the nation’s second-highest rate. 

Indiana’s potential dropoff in pass rush is especially noteworthy because if the Hoosiers' defense has a weakness, it’s the secondary. 

Check out Indiana’s completion rate allowed when failing to generate pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:

• Overall: 71%, ranked 95th
• 10 or more yards downfield: 49%, ranked 57th
• 15 or more yards downfield, 46%, ranked 80th

This flaw has gone unnoticed due to its dominant pass rush unit 一 45% of attempts at 15 or more yards downfield against Indiana have been under pressure, the seventh-highest rate.

If Indiana can’t consistently get to Moore, however, the secondary might not hold up in this matchup. 

There’s a chance Indiana increases its blitz rate to make up for the absences of Daley and Wyatt, but Moore has excelled at reacting to the blitz this season. 

In the first matchup, Moore was 6 for 10 for 100 yards and a touchdown against Indiana’s blitz.

Only 1 of the 6 sacks occurred when the Hoosiers brought extra pressure. 

On the season, Moore is completing 70% of his passes against the blitz (ranked 13th) for 9.2 yards per attempt (ranked 11th). 

One area where Indiana may still hold an edge is in the red zone. 

The Hoosier defense leads the nation in red zone touchdown rate allowed (26%). Oregon’s offense ranks 47th. 

So Moore might have more success moving the Ducks up and down the field, but if Indiana can force Oregon to settle for field goals (or failed fourth-down attempts), the Hoosiers can still win this game. 

When Indiana is on Offense

Indiana runs a balanced offense heavily featuring RPOs under coordinator Mike Shanahan, who has been Curt Cignetti’s play-caller since the 2021 season at James Madison. 

In the first meeting, however, Indiana came out of the gate throwing the ball at a high rate. 

In the first half, Hoosier running backs took just eight handoffs compared to 18 dropbacks by Fernando Mendoza. 

If the Hoosiers take a similar approach, they will need their pass protection unit to step up, though Oregon appears to hold a slight advantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Indiana: 20th in pressure rate allowed
• Oregon: ranked 5th in pressure rate generated

That said, Indiana relies heavily on quick dropbacks, and Mendoza’s ability to get the ball out quickly is a key factor in his ability to avoid pressure. 

The Hoosier passing attack uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) 47% of the time, the nation’s 20th-highest rate. 

Oregon defends these quick dropbacks well, ranking third in the nation in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks (4.2).

So it should come as no surprise that Mendoza’s numbers on these plays were muted in the first meeting.

Check out Mendoza’s stats on quick dropbacks this season, via Sports Info Solutions:

• Against Oregon: 67% completion rate, 5.5 yards per attempt
• Against others: 72% completion rate, 6.8 yards per attempt

So long as Indiana plays with a lead 一 it never trailed in the second half in the first matchup 一 this quick passing attack should remain effective, even if it limits the Hoosiers' big-play ability. 

If Indiana falls behind, however, Mendoza might be in trouble. 

To attack downfield, Mendoza needs to take more traditional dropbacks, which was an issue in the first matchup. 

On traditional dropbacks, Mendoza was just 4 for 8 for 64 yards with an interception while facing pressure 8 times (72% pressure rate) and scrambling twice.

Calling traditional dropback plays has been both risky and rewarding for Shanahan’s offense, and, since the Hoosiers have rarely trailed this season, he has mostly been able to remain cautious when needed. 

On traditional dropbacks, Mendoza averages 12.1 yards per attempt, ranked second in the nation. 

However, he has also faced a 39% pressure rate, and when pressured on a traditional dropback, Mendoza takes a sack 25% of the time, ranked 118th. 

So while Mendoza has mastered Indiana’s quick passing attack, his production when taking his time in the pocket has been more hit-or-miss, and this could be a critical factor if the Hoosiers find themselves playing from behind at some point. 

In the run game, Indiana found it difficult to move the ball against Oregon’s front.

Its running backs gained just 3.9 yards per attempt. 

This was a recurring theme for the Hoosiers against the best run defenses they faced, as their running backs were held to 4.2 yards per attempt or worse against Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Wisconsin.

Since the Hoosiers did not dominate on the ground against any of the quality run defenses they faced, we should assume it remains a struggle for Indiana to move the ball on the ground. 

As a result, Oregon likely forces a pass-heavy game play again 一 at least until they build a lead, as they did in the first matchup.

Despite the expected mediocre results on the ground, it is worth noting that Oregon struggles to create negative plays against the run. 

The Ducks have stopped opposing running backs for zero or negative yards just 15% of the time this year, ranked 88th. 

This trend was a factor in the first meeting, as Oregon struggled to get Indiana off the field late in the game. 

In the fourth quarter, Indiana running backs didn’t have a run longer than seven yards, but 8 of their 11 carries gained at least three yards. 

The Hoosiers' ability to consistently keep moving forward on early downs allowed them to avoid obvious passing situations, where the Ducks could more easily get them off the field. 

So while there are reasons to be concerned about Indiana’s offense if it falls behind, if it can gain an early lead, there's reason to be optimistic about its ability to run the ball and bleed the clock again. 

Final Thoughts on Indiana vs. Oregon Best Bets

This game was a toss-up the first time around, so the smart bet is to take the points and play Oregon against the spread. 

Indiana’s depleted pass rush is the biggest factor that could alter the way this game is played from October’s meeting, so the Ducks look like the best bet while they’re getting more than a field goal against the spread.

This season, I've been breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup. 

Let’s break down the Fiesta Bowl matchup between Miami and Ole Miss.  

Ole Miss vs. Miami, current line:

• Miami -3.5 at Novig

Ole Miss vs Miami Best Bet Prediction:

This game is closer to a toss-up than the line indicates, so let’s take Ole Miss against the spread. 

• Ole Miss vs. Miami, best line: Ole Miss +3.5

» Bet it now at Novig: Ole Miss +3.5 points

When Ole Miss is on Offense

Ole Miss runs Lane Kiffin’s fast-paced, pass-heavy offense, and not much has changed in Kiffin’s absence. 

Coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. was heavily involved in playcalling before Kiffin’s departure and knows the offense well enough to maintain its success without his boss. 

Weis’ relationship with Kiffin dates back to his first coaching gig as an offensive assistant when Kiffin was Alabama’s coordinator. 

He then joined Kiffin at Florida Atlantic and, after a brief stop at USF, rejoined Kiffin at Ole Miss. 

So far, the Ole Miss offense has not missed a beat without Kiffin, but it should be noted that Weis is joining Kiffin at LSU and was in Baton Rouge this week to assist with transfer portal recruiting. 

With less time between the quarterfinal and semifinal games, Weis’ lack of attention on Miami could be a factor. 

The key to beating Miami is slowing down its pass-rush unit, which generated an impressive 50% pressure rate against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. 

Based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions, it should be a good matchup in the trenches:

• Ole Miss: ranked 4th in pressure rate allowed
• Miami: ranked 2nd in pressure rate generated

Despite similar numbers, the advantage likely goes to Ole Miss due to the offensive scheme. 

Kiffin’s offense is built to get the ball out quickly, which naturally limits the amount of pressure even the best pass-rush unit can generate. 

Ole Miss uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) 56% of the time, the nation’s sixth-highest rate, while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt on those plays, ranked fifth. 

Miami’s pass-rush unit is talented, but even Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor can’t consistently generate pressure against that scheme. 

When facing quick dropbacks, the Hurricanes have generated a pressure rate of only 23%, ranking 65th. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean the edge goes to Ole Miss’ offense, however, because quick dropbacks also mean shorter throws 一 so there’s still time for the defense to make a quick tackle and limit the scheme’s effectiveness. 

This was an area where Georgia struggled 一 the Bulldogs ranked 106th in yards per attempt against quick dropbacks 一 and so it was a key reason why we took Ole Miss against the spread last week. 

Miami, however, is allowing just 5.7 yards per attempt against quick dropbacks, ranked 24th. 

While Miami defends quick dropbacks relatively well, it is worth mentioning that the power conference quarterback who took the most quick dropbacks against Miami this year was Kevin Jennings, who led SMU to an upset win while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt on 24 quick dropbacks.  

Jennings threw for 365 yards in that game, the only 300-yard passing performance against the Canes this year. 

Another factor in the passing game will be Miami’s tendency to blitz. 

Coordinator Corey Hetherman has dialed up a blitz 34% of the time this year, the 22nd-highest rate.

The blitz-heavy approach worked well last week against the less-mobile Julian Sayin, who averaged 10.0 yards per attempt on those plays but also threw an interception and took 3 sacks. 

Trinidad Chambliss is more athletic, however, and probably better suited to handle the extra pressure. 

According to Sports Info Solutions, Chambliss is averaging 9.4 yards per attempt against blitzes (ranked 6th) while taking a sack 4.4% of the time (ranked 30th). 

When Chambliss takes a traditional dropback of three or more steps (which he does 36% of the time), that’s when Miami’s pass rush unit will hold an edge. 

Against traditional dropbacks, Miami is generating a 54% pressure rate (ranked 2nd), while Ole Miss’ pressure rate allowed sits at 38% (ranked 30th). 

One of the ways for Miami to force Ole Miss into more traditional dropbacks will be to create tough down-and-distance situations. 

On third and long, Chambliss’ traditional dropback rate jumps to 65%, so those types of play calls are typically necessary to attack downfield. 

Miami’s defense ranks 14th in the nation in third-and-long force rate, but maintaining that level of success against Ole Miss might be challenging. 

As previously mentioned, Ole Miss’ quick passing game is a factor in staying ahead of the sticks, but its rushing attack is also tough to contain. 

Ole Miss’ spread offense excels at creating light boxes, which has been a relative area of weakness for a Miami defense that doesn’t have as many playmakers at the second level as on the line. 

When lined up with a light box, Miami is allowing 4.8 yards per attempt and, perhaps more importantly, 3.1 yards before contact per carry, which ranks 69th in the country. 

If Miami struggles to create early contact against the run, it will be harder to force Ole Miss into those third-and-long situations. 

Additionally, Ole Miss tends to direct runs outside the tackles, as the theme of the offense is getting playmakers into open space as often as possible. 

This is also somewhat problematic for Miami’s defense based on these stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• Between the tackles: 4.0 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 24th
• Outside the tackles: 4.7 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 46th

So while Miami’s defense doesn’t have any glaring flaws, Ole Miss’ scheme does appear to be well-suited to exploit some weaknesses and potentially exceed expectations in this matchup. 

When Miami is on Offense

Miami runs a conservative but pass-heavy offense under coordinator Shannon Dawson, relying heavily on Carson Beck’s experience and his ability to distribute the ball like a point guard on underneath routes. 

This strategy works well in part due to Miami’s offensive line, which is likely to hold an edge over Ole Miss’ pass-rush unit based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed
• Ole Miss: ranked 20th in pressure rate generated 

Miami’s dominance in pass protection is particularly impressive since Beck takes traditional dropbacks 56% of the time. 

Even in traditional dropbacks, however, Miami leads the nation in pressure rate allowed at just 25%, holding a clear advantage over an Ole Miss defense that ranks 46th by the same metric. 

Although Beck takes traditional dropbacks at a high rate, the downfield passing attack is not a huge part of the offense. 

Instead, Miami tries to get the ball in the hands of its playmakers quickly on underneath routes, with 57% of throws traveling five or fewer yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate, per Sports Info Solutions. 

This strategy likely gives the Miami passing attack a significant edge over Ole Miss based on these numbers on throws five or fewer yards downfield:

• Miami: 6.7 yards per attempt, ranked 7th
• Ole Miss: 5.5 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 77th

One of the reasons for Ole Miss’ struggles on shorter throws is an inability to tackle in open space against the pass. 

Ole Miss is allowing a broken/missed tackle once every 4.5 receptions, ranked 109th. 

Miami’s receivers rank 18th by the same metric, so we should expect to see some mistakes by the Ole Miss defense lead to extra yardage after the catch. 

Although this underneath passing attack has been a winning strategy for Miami, it should be pointed out that part of the motivation for the game plan is a lack of trust in Beck’s downfield passing. 

Beck has thrown 22 interceptions over the last two years and routinely puts the ball in harm's way when attacking downfield. 

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, opponents have generated a 19% ball-hawk rate against the Canes, ranked 97th 一 evidence that there’s nothing fluky about Beck’s interception total, as defenders are consistently getting their hands on the ball. 

Downfield pass defense has been a strength of the Ole Miss defense 一 it ranks sixth in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield 一 so Miami is unlikely to alter its strategy and get more aggressive. 

However, since the Ole Miss offense has the potential to score quickly, there’s a chance Miami gets forced into a shootout. 

If the game flow swung that direction, it would undoubtedly favor Ole Miss due to Beck’s issues attacking downfield. 

The run game matchup is more difficult to predict because it's not a strength for either team, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 70th in yards before contact
• Ole Miss: ranked 116th in yards before contact allowed
• Miami: ranked 43rd in yards after contact
• Ole Miss: ranked 51st in yards after contact allowed

Those stats appear to favor Miami slightly, but the Hurricanes tend to invite stacked boxes at a high rate, which plays into Ole Miss’ hands. 

Check out Ole Miss’ stats based on box type:

• Light box: 5.5 yards per attempt, ranked 80th
• Stacked box: 3.9 yards per attempt, ranked 40th

This is similar to Ole Miss’ matchup with Georgia, another power-run offense that invited stacked boxes, which allowed Ole Miss to contain the ground game. 

A few weaker teams had surprising success running the ball against Ole Miss this year, such as Washington State and Mississippi State, but both teams used spread offenses to create light boxes.

In fact, when Mississippi State ran for 262 yards in the Egg Bowl, its running backs did not face a single stacked box. 

That won’t be the case for Mark Fletcher and Miami, so expect to see a relatively modest performance from the Canes' ground game.

Final Thoughts on Miami vs. Ole Miss Best Bets

This should be a tight game, so let’s take the underdog and play Ole Miss against the spread.

This is a tough game to predict because the pace of the game likely determines who has an edge, and one unlucky turnover could swing momentum dramatically. 

If Miami can avoid costly errors, run the ball, and slow down the pace, it likely holds an edge and can win a close game 一 but so can Ole Miss. 

If Ole Miss can force Miami into a shootout, however, Beck’s limitations as a passer become a significant disadvantage, and Ole Miss likely holds a significant edge. 

The matchups for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as the College Football Playoff field have been announced.

The only thing left to do is dominate your bowl pick 'em pool.

We are here to help with predictions and analysis for every 2025 Bowl Game as well as some strategies to use in your bowl pick 'em pool.

These picks will continue to be updated throughout bowl season, especially as we get news of players opting out.

Since players opting out and transferring can wildly swing expectations for a game, it's advisable to join a pool in which you can change your selections up until the kickoff of each bowl game.

Current Record: 31-13

2025 Bowl Game Picks:

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Bowl	Matchup	Pick	Confidence Point Range
Celebration Bowl	South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M	Prairie View	1-5
LA Bowl	Boise State vs. Washington	Washington	41-47
Salute to Veterans Bowl	Troy vs. Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State	21-25
Cure Bowl	Old Dominion vs. South Florida	Old Dominion	6-10
68 Ventures Bowl	Louisiana vs. Delaware	Delaware	1-5
Xbox Bowl	Arkansas State vs. Missouri State	Missouri State	11-15
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan	Kennesaw State	6-10
Gasparilla Bowl	Memphis vs. NC State	NCST	21-25
CFP First Round	Oklahoma vs. Alabama	Alabama	16-20
CFP First Round	Texas A&M vs. Miami	Miami	16-20
CFP First Round	Ole Miss vs. Tulane	Ole Miss	41-47
CFP First Round	Oregon vs. James Madison	Oregon	41-47
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Washington State vs. Utah State	Utah State	11-15
Boca Raton Bowl	Louisville vs. Toledo	Louisville	41-47
New Orleans Bowl	Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss	Western Kentucky	11-15
Frisco Bowl	UNLV vs. Ohio	UNLV	36-40
Hawaii Bowl	Cal vs. Hawaii	California	16-20
GameAbove Sports Bowl	Central Michigan vs. Northwestern	Northwestern	21-25
Rate Bowl	New Mexico vs. Minnesota	New Mexico	21-25
First Responder Bowl	Florida International vs. UTSA	UTSA	1-5
Military Bowl	Pitt vs. East Carolina	PItt	36-40
Pinstripe Bowl	Clemson vs. Penn State	Clemson	1-5
Fenway Bowl	Connecticut vs. Army	Army	6-10
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Georgia Tech vs. BYU	BYU	36-40
Arizona Bowl	Miami of Ohio vs. Fresno State	Fresno State	31-35
New Mexico Bowl	San Diego State vs. North Texas	North Texas	11-15
Gator Bowl	Missouri vs. Virginia	Missouri	11-15
Texas Bowl	LSU vs. Houston	Houston	26-30
Birmingham Bowl	Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern	31-35
Independence Bowl	Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech	41-47
Music City Bowl	Tennessee vs. Illinois	Illinois	16-20
Alamo Bowl	USC vs. TCU	TCU	21-25
ReliaQuest Bowl	Vanderbilt vs. Iowa	Vanderbilt	26-30
Sun Bowl	Arizona State vs. Duke	Duke	36-40
Citrus Bowl	Texas vs. Michigan	Texas	26-30
Las Vegas Bowl	Utah vs. Nebraska	Utah	41-47
CFP Quarterfinal	Ohio State vs. Miami	Ohio State	31-35
CFP Quarterfinal	Texas Tech vs. Oregon	Oregon	26-30
CFP Quarterfinal	Indiana vs. Alabama	Indiana	36-40
CFP Quarterfinal	Georgia vs. Ole Miss	Georgia	31-35
Armed Forces Bowl	Texas State vs. Rice	Texas State	41-47
Liberty Bowl	Navy vs. Cincinnati	Navy	31-35
Duke's Mayo Bowl	Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest	Wake Forest	16-20
Holiday Bowl	Arizona vs. SMU	SMU	6-10
CFP Semifinal	Oregon vs. Indiana	Oregon	6-10
CFP Semifinal	Ole Miss vs. Miami	Ole Miss	1-5
National Championship Game	TBD vs. TBD	Coming Soon!	Coming Soon!

2025 Bowl Game Analysis and Predictions, Every Bowl Game:

CFP Semifinals: Oregon vs. Indiana

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 6-10 points

CFP Semifinals Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Oregon vs. Indiana in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Semifinals: Ole Miss vs. Miami

• Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
• Confidence Points: 1-5 points

CFP Semifinals Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Ole Miss vs. Miami in the College Football Playoff!

National Championship Game: TBD

• Predicted Winner: Coming soon!
• Confidence Points: Coming soon!

National Championship Game Analysis: 

Coming soon! 

Completed Bowls:

CFP Quarterfinals: Miami vs. Ohio State

• Predicted Winner: Ohio State
• Confidence Points: 31-35 points

Texas A&M vs. Ohio State Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Miami vs. Ohio State in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Quarterfinals: Oregon vs. Texas Tech

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 26-30 points

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Oregon vs. Texas Tech in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Quarterfinals: Alabama vs. Indiana

• Predicted Winner: Indiana
• Confidence Points: 36-40 points

Alabama vs. Indiana Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Alabama vs. Indiana in the College Football Playoff!

CFP Quarterfinals: Ole Miss vs. Georgia

• Predicted Winner: Georgia
• Confidence Points: 31-35 points

Ole Miss vs. Georgia Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Ole Miss vs. Georgia in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Alabama at Oklahoma

• Predicted Winner: Alabama
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Alabama-Oklahoma Analysis:

Click here for a full breakdown of Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Miami at Texas A&M

• Predicted Winner: Miami
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Miami-Texas A&M Analysis:

Click here for a full breakdown of Miami vs. Texas A&M in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: Tulane at Ole Miss

• Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Tulane-Ole Miss Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of Tulane vs. Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff!

CFP First Round: James Madison at Oregon

• Predicted Winner: Oregon
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

James Madison-Oregon Analysis: 

Click here for a full breakdown of James Madison vs. Oregon in the College Football Playoff!

Celebration Bowl: Prairie View A&M vs. South Carolina State

• Predicted Winner: Prairie View A&M
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Celebration Bowl Analysis: 

Prairie View A&M is participating in its first Celebration Bowl after pulling off an upset of Jacksonville State to win the SWAC for the first time since 2009.

South Carolina State is in this game for the third time in the last five years, having lost last year and won in 2021.

Prairie View is the more balanced team, ranking third in scoring defense and 31st in scoring offense, whereas South Carolina State ranks 28th on offense and 63rd on defense. 

The Panther defense should be taken seriously, especially after holding a dangerous Jackson State offense to a season-low 244 yards. 

LA Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington

• Predicted Winner: Washington
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

LA Bowl Analysis: 

Boise State wants to run the ball with Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, but that won’t be easy against a strong Washington defense. 

Check out the Huskies' opponent-adjusted numbers against the run: 

• Yards before contact allowed: ranked 15th
• Yards after contact allowed: ranked 14th

Boise’s offensive line also might take a hit if left tackle Kage Casey opts out (he’s already declared for the NFL Draft). 

Washington is not expected to have any opt-outs, which should allow the Huskies to have their way with a shaky Broncos defense. 

Washington ranks 11th in the country in explosive play rate, while Boise’s defense ranks 121st. 

Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State

• Predicted Winner: Jacksonville State
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Salute to Veterans Bowl Analysis: 

Troy might be without starting quarterback Goose Crowder, who was injured in the Sun Belt Championship game, though backup Tucker Kilcrease started seven games when Crowder was injured earlier this year. 

The potential quarterback change probably doesn’t make a significant impact, as neither handles pressure well, which could be a deciding factor in this contest. 

Check out how these teams stack up in the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Troy: ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed
• Jacksonville State: ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated

This is problematic because Kilcrease and Crowder rank 146th and 149th, respectively, out of 153 qualifiers in sack rate versus pressure. 

Troy might also be without starting running back Tae Meadows, who is planning to enter the portal. 

Jacksonville State throws the ball at a rate 12% below expected based on situation data from Campus2Canton, and meets a friendly run defense in Troy. 

The Gamecocks' spread offense creates light boxes for its running backs 62% of the time, which could exploit a weakness in the Trojan defense. 

Troy is used to playing with light boxes due to its 3-3-5 scheme, but has been helpless against the run, allowing 6.0 yards per attempt to running backs when in a light box (ranked 108th). 

Cam Cook, a former four-star recruit who transferred in from TCU, should run all over the Trojan defense.

Cure Bowl: Old Dominion vs. South Florida

• Predicted Winner: Old Dominion
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Cure Bowl Analysis: 

Old Dominion has one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, but will be without starting quarterback Colton Joseph, who has entered the portal, likely in search of a power-conference program to suit up for in 2026. 

Joseph is a capable passer but also led the Monarchs in rushing yards — his 1,107 yards on the ground (excluding sacks) rank third among FBS quarterbacks. 

Redshirt-freshman Quinn Henicle will start in place of Joseph. 

Henicle may keep the offense on track, as we saw his running ability on display in a start against Arkansas State last year when he ran for 220 yards, excluding sacks. 

However, that was a terrible Arkansas State defense (ranked 125th in rushing defense), and the Bulls likely pose more of a challenge. 

Henicle should also have some success with ODU’s quick-strike passing attack, which could exploit a weakness in USF’s defense. 

Old Dominion has relied on quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) at the nation’s highest rate (79%), and USF’s defense only ranks 66th in yards per attempt allowed against those types of plays. 

Although Joseph is a significant loss for ODU, offseason moves have hit USF considerably harder.

They will be without head coach Alex Golesh and a few other offensive coaches (all headed to Auburn) as well as quarterback Byrum Brown (who is serving as an assistant coach instead). 

Unlike ODU, the Bulls don’t have a similar quarterback to plug in. 

Brown is a run-first quarterback, leading USF with 1,121 yards (excluding sacks). 

Sixth-year senior Gaston Moore, a transfer from Tennessee, will make his first career start in Brown’s place. 

Moore has played 220 offensive snaps in his career, carrying the ball just 11 times for 51 yards, so expect USF to lean more on its running backs and the quick passing game. 

USF utilizes quick dropbacks at the nation’s second-highest rate (62%), but ODU ranks 15th in the country in yards per attempt allowed against those plays. 

It’s also worth noting ODU has just one bowl victory in program history (2016 Bahamas Bowl), so there could be stronger motivation on that side of the field. 

68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana vs. Delaware

• Predicted Winner: Delaware
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

68 Ventures Bowl Analysis: 

Louisiana leans heavily on the run, which could be problematic for a struggling Delaware defense. 

According to Campus2Canton, Louisiana runs the ball at a rate 9.2% above expected based on situational data. 

The Ragin' Cajuns certainly don’t have a dominant run game, but they should be able to handle Delaware based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Louisiana: ranked 76th in yards before contact
• Delaware: ranked 92nd in yards before contact allowed
• Louisiana: ranked 88th in yards after contact
• Delaware: ranked 113th in yards after contact allowed

The Blue Hens might be able to keep pace with their passing attack, however, as Louisiana’s lack of pass rush has made it vulnerable to pass-heavy offenses. 

Delaware throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, and quarterback Nick Minicucci should have plenty of protection based on these opponent-adjusted stats:

• Delaware: ranked 64th in pressure rate allowed
• Louisiana: ranked 129th in pressure rate generated

Delaware’s ability to protect Minicucci is impressive given the rate at which he takes traditional dropbacks (three or more steps). 

Minicucci’s 65% traditional dropback rate is the 10th highest in the country, which tends to invite more pressure, but that won’t be an issue against Louisiana. 

The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 133rd in pressure rate generated against traditional dropbacks and 89th in yards per attempt allowed. 

Delaware went 4-2 this season when Minicucci was pressured on fewer than 30% of his dropbacks, and Louisiana only generated a pressure rate that high four times. 

Xbox Bowl: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• Predicted Winner: Missouri State
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Xbox Bowl Analysis: 

Missouri State runs a pass-heavy offense but struggles to protect quarterback Jacob Clark, which could be an issue in this matchup. 

Check out the pass-protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Missouri State: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed
• Arkansas State: ranked 84th in pressure rate generated

When the Bears are able to protect Clark, however, there will be plenty of big plays to be had against this Red Wolves defense. 

Missouri State’s offense ranks 14th in explosive play rate, while Arkansas State’s defense ranks 98th. 

Expect most of those big plays to come in the downfield passing game, as Clark ranks 10th in completion rate at 15 or more yards downfield (53%). 

The Red Wolves defense ranks 91st in completion rate allowed at that depth. 

If Missouri State protects Clark enough to have some success in the downfield passing game, Arkansas State might struggle to keep pace. 

The Red Wolves rank 121st in opponent-adjusted scoring offense and 118th in explosive play rate, so this is not a team built for a shootout. 

Missouri’s State’s weakness on defense is its run defense, but Arkansas State does not appear built to exploit that flaw based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Arkansas State: ranked 92nd in yards before contact
• Missouri State: ranked 89th in yards before contact allowed
• Arkansas State: ranked 121st in yards after contact
• Missouri State: ranked 100th in yards after contact allowed

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan

• Predicted Winner: Kennesaw State
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Myrtle Beach Bowl Analysis: 

Western Michigan runs a slow-paced, run-heavy offense, simply trying to bleed the clock and win low-scoring games with its defense. 

Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Western Michigan runs the ball at a rate 11% above expected. 

Check out a few more key stats to sum up the Broncos offense:

• Ranked 115th in pace of play
• Ranked 107th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense
• Ranked 127th in explosive play rate

Western Michigan’s rushing attack worked against some of the weaker defenses in the MAC, but it is not a consistent unit and might struggle in this match based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Western Michigan: ranked 126th in yards before contact
• Kennesaw State: ranked 109th in yards before contact allowed
• Western Michigan: ranked 104th in yards after contact
• Kennesaw State: ranked 68th in yards after contact allowed

Kennesaw State runs a spread offense, leaning slightly more heavily on the run game, where it may have an edge against the Bronco defense. 

The spread scheme creates a light box for Owl running backs 68% of the time. 

Western Michigan is allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked 101st. 

Expect Owls’ quarterback Amari Odom to take some shots downfield in the passing game and potentially swing momentum with some big plays. 

Odom ranks second in the country with a 63% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield.

It's also worth mentioning that this is Kennesaw State's first bowl game, and it's just six hours from campus.

Western Michigan is in a bowl game for the second straight year and the eighth time in the last 12 years, so the Owls may have more motivation in this game as well as a crowd advantage.

Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs. NC State

• Predicted Winner: NC State
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Gasparilla Bowl Analysis: 

The biggest question entering this game is: Does Memphis want to be here?

After starting 6-0 and looking like a serious playoff contender, Memphis went 2-4 down the stretch before losing head coach Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas (he will not coach in this game). 

Memphis runs a balanced offense but might lean more heavily on the run game due to these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Memphis: ranked 23rd in yards before contact
• NC State: ranked 49th in yards before contact allowed
• Memphis: ranked 62nd in yards after contact
• NC State: ranked 112 in yards after contact allowed

The key to NC State’s offense is protecting quarterback CJ Bailey, who takes a traditional dropback at the nation’s sixth-highest rate. 

Traditional dropbacks invite extra pressure, but Memphis only ranks 76th in pressure rate against traditional dropbacks (41%) and 113th in yards per attempt allowed (9.0). 

NC State's star running back Hollywood Smothers has opted out and plans on entering the transfer portal, but he missed some action earlier this year and freshman Duke Scott easily filled in.

Scott is expected to take over as the starter next season and there should be minimal dropoff in production, if any.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State vs. Utah State

• Predicted Winner: Utah State
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Analysis: 

Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers has already left for Iowa State, and at least 13 players have stated their intention to enter the portal. 

Some of those players will remain with the team, but starting running back Kirby Vorhees is among those who have left the program. 

The Cougars favor the passing game and should be able to protect quarterback Zevi Eckhaus against a Utah State pass rush ranked 111th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated. 

Eckhaus isn’t much of a downfield passer, so Washington State typically attacks on underneath routes, which doesn’t look like a great plan of attack based on these numbers on throws five or fewer yards downfield from Sports Info Solutions:

• Washington State: 5.0 yards per attempt, ranked 96th
• Utah State: 4.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 33rd

Utah State runs a relatively balanced offense but should probably try to avoid the passing game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Utah State: ranked 134th in pressure rate allowed
• Washington State: ranked 58th in pressure rate generated

Fortunately for the Aggies, they appear to hold a considerable advantage in the run game. 

Washington State’s run defense has been routinely gashed this year, giving up three or more yards before contact to running backs on 31% of attempts (ranked 112th). 

Quarterback Bryson Barnes also plays a critical role in the run game, averaging 78.0 yards per game, excluding sacks.

Boca Raton Bowl: Louisville vs. Toledo

• Predicted Winner: Louisville
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Boca Raton Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams have been hurt by out-outs, but Toledo will likely be without more key players in a matchup it was unlikely to win even at full strength. 

Most notably, Rockets quarterback Tucker Gleason is injured and will not play, setting redshirt-freshman Kalieb Osborne up for his first career start. 

Louisville will be without two starting defensive linemen, but Toledo’s left tackle also opted out, so the edge in pass protection likely remains with the Cardinals based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Toledo: ranked 68th in pressure rate allowed
• Louisville: ranked 38th in pressure rate generated

Louisville will be without leading receiver Chris Bell (injury), but receiver Caullin Lacy and quarterback Miller Moss are expected to play. 

Toledo had a strong pass-rush unit during the regular season, but probably lacks the depth to replace opt-out Malachi Davis, who led the team in pressures and sacks.

New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

• Predicted Winner: Western Kentucky
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

New Orleans Bowl Analysis: 

Western Kentucky throws the ball at a rate 10% above expected, according to Campus2Canton, and should have success in this matchup with its quick passing attack. 

The Hilltoppers use quick dropbacks 40% of the time and should lean heavily on those plays in this game as Southern Miss ranks 107th in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks (7.4), per Sports Info Solutions. 

Western Kentucky is also likely to capitalize on its scoring opportunities based on these red zone touchdown conversion rate stats:

• Western Kentucky: 70% conversion rate, ranked 24th
• Southern Miss: 70% conversion rate allowed, ranked 117th

Southern Miss runs a more balanced offense and has a knack for producing explosive plays. 

The Golden Eagles rank 30th in explosive play rate, while the Hilltoppers defense ranks 106th. 

However, Western Kentucky also excels at generating negative plays, which has allowed it to force opponents into third-and-long situations at the nation’s 14th highest rate. 

Southern Miss only ranks 65th in third-and-long avoidance. 

Be sure to check back on the opt-out status of Southern Miss players shortly before kickoff because head coach Charles Huff is headed to Memphis. 

Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson was promoted to head coach, however, which may increase the likelihood of players sticking around. 

Frisco Bowl: UNLV vs. Ohio

• Predicted Winner: UNLV
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Frisco Bowl Analysis: 

Ohio head coach Brian Smith was recently fired for some wild off-field misconduct allegations, so it’s anyone’s guess what level of motivation the Bobcats have entering this game. 

UNLV has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country and ranks ninth in explosive play rate, while Ohio’s defense ranks 81st by the same metric. 

Expect the Rebels to attack downfield early and often in an effort to exploit the Bobcats’ greatest weakness. 

Outside the red zone, UNLV throws 15 or more yards downfield 29% of the time, the 11th highest rate. 

Anthony Colandrea ranks 29th in completion rate on those throws (48%), while Ohio’s defense ranks 119th (49%), per Sports Info Solutions.

Ohio leans on a run-heavy approach and will likely try to slow this game down by controlling the ball with its ground game. 

UNLV’s run defense has been inconsistent at best, but Ohio’s spread offense plays into the Rebels’ hands. 

Check out UNLV’s run defense by box type:

• Light box: 5.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 72nd
• Stacked box: 6.2 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 134th

On average, teams allow 0.9 fewer yards with a stacked box, whereas UNLV’s numbers swing the opposite direction. 

This is noteworthy because Ohio running backs have only faced a stacked box 37% of the time due to its spread formations. 

When Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro drops back to pass, he will likely be swarmed by the Rebels’ pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:

• Ohio: ranked 118th in pressure rate allowed
• UNLV: ranked 35th in pressure rate generated

So if UNLV can build a lead and force Ohio into a more pass-heavy game plan, the Rebels should be able to pull away.

Hawaii Bowl: California vs. Hawaii

• Predicted Winner: California
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Hawaii Bowl Analysis:

Hawaii runs one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the country but it's a unit that has struggled to produce the explosive plays head coach Timmy Chang is hoping for with his run-and-shoot scheme. 

The Rainbow Warriors rank 101st in explosive play rate 一 one of the few matchups in which Cal has had an edge in this area, as its defense ranks 80th by the same metric. 

On the other side of the ball Cal has a massive edge in the explosive play department, ranking 36th compared to Hawaii’s defense at 102nd. 

Hawaii will have a chance to slow Cal down with its pass rush, which should hold an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• California: ranked 110th in pressure rate allowed
• Hawaii: ranked 25th in pressure rate generated

When Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has time, expect Cal to take some shots downfield as the Golden Bears throw 15 or more yards downfield at the 36th highest rate outside the red zone. 

Sagapolutele is completing 51% of his throws at that depth, ranked 21st, while Hawaii’s defense ranks 66th in completion rate allowed. 

Cal’s offense has been wildly inconsistent due to the ups and downs of Sagapolutele, a true freshman.

Expect Sagapolutele to look more sharp in this contest having had a few weeks to prepare for a mediocre defense. 

Hawaii is playing on its home field in this game, but that hasn’t proven to be an advantage historically as the Warriors are just 5-4 in the Hawaii bowl. 

Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU

• Predicted Winner: SMU
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Holiday Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams will be close to full strength in a surprisingly strong matchup for a post-New Year’s Day bowl game. 

SMU leans on Kevin Jennings and its passing attack and should have an edge in the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• SMU: ranked 35th in pressure rate allowed
• Arizona: ranked 80th in pressure rate generated

The Wildcats secondary has played well this year, however, allowing the ninth-lowest explosive play rate. 

Arizona also has a pass-heavy offense and while its offensive line has struggled this year, it might have success against the SMU secondary. 

Noah Fifita takes a traditional dropback 62% of the time, the 18th highest rate in the nation. 

That style of offense has been a good strategy against SMU, which is allowing 8.7 yards per attempt against traditional dropbacks, ranked 105th. 

If this is a close game, the difference-maker could be Arizona’s red zone struggles. 

Check out the matchup in the red zone:

• Arizona: ranked 108th in red zone touchdowns rate
• SMU: ranked 4th in red zone touchdown rate allowed

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State

• Predicted Winner: Wake Forest
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Duke’s Mayo Bowl Analysis: 

Wake Forest’s strength has been its defense, which ranks 36th in opponent-adjusted scoring defense and second in explosive play rate allowed. 

Mississippi State has leaned heavily on its run game but will likely be at a disadvantage against the Demon Deacons based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

• Mississippi State: ranked 97th in yards before contact
• Wake Forest: ranked 12th in yards before contact allowed
• Mississippi State: ranked 58th in yards after contact
• Wake Forest: ranked 41st in yards after contact allowed

Mississippi State uses quick dropbacks 56% of the time, which helps mask its offensive line deficiencies. 

However, Wake leads the nation in quick dropback defense, allowing just 4.0 yards per attempt. 

The Demon Deacons will be without defensive tackle Mateen Ibirogba, but the rest of the defense starters are expected to play.

2025 Bowl Game Pick ‘Em Strategy:

In either straight-up bowl pick 'em or confidence pools, the goal is fairly simple.

Pick more correct games or score more points than everyone else.

Accomplishing that goal, however, is more involved than simply picking the games, especially in confidence pools.

In regular pick 'em pools, there will be a lot of overlap between entries.

In Splash Sports' $100K CFB Bowl Pick'em, for instance, there will be several teams with well over a 75% pick rate.

While it is not a great idea to deviate from those heavy favorites just for the fun of it, those games can offer a great opportunity to gain leverage on the field if the public is too confident in a certain team.

Often, this overconfidence is a result of the public missing important news, such as opt-outs or coaching changes.

Betting markets adjust quickly to that kind of news and are a great way to determine if the public is too confident in a specific team, since every moneyline comes with an implied probability of victory.

A -120 favorite (54.6% implied probability) selected by 80% of the field offers a great opportunity to go against the public.

Conversely, a -200 favorite (66.7% implied probability) selected by just 55% of the field is a great opportunity to go with the chalk and pick the favorite.

Identifying those situations is important because it differentiates your entry and increases your chances of winning if you get those swing games correct.

How often you need to make those swings depends on the size of your bowl pool.

In a small pool, it does not make sense to pick a ton of upsets. A few underdog picks should be enough to differentiate from a small number of entries.

A bigger pool, however, might require a bit more risk-taking to separate from the larger field.

Confidence pools add another layer to pick 'em strategy because they require entries to rank their selections, with their most confident pick usually worth 47 points and the least confident worth only 1 point.

The importance of those high-confidence games cannot be overstated. The 47-point pick is worth more than picks 1 through 9 combined.

However, those high-confidence picks also offer a great opportunity.

Assigning a higher point value to an undervalued team maximizes the advantage gained if that underdog can pull out the win.

Like with regular pick 'em pools, the size of a confidence pool affects how aggressive you should be with upset selections and their point values.

GameAbove Sports Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern

• Predicted Winner: Northwestern
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

GameAbove Sports Bowl Analysis: 

Northwestern slightly favors its rushing attack and should have success against a weak Central Michigan run defense. 

The Wildcats pro-style offense allows defenses to stack the box at a high rate, so let’s take a look at CMU’s numbers with a stacked box via Sports Info Solutions:

• 2.3 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 116th
• 4.8 yards per attempt, ranked 85th

Northwestern doesn’t have a potent passing attack, but it should have some success in this matchup as it can likely protect quarterback Preston Stone based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Northwestern: ranked 9th in pressure rate allowed
• Central Michigan: ranked 67th in pressure rate generated

Central Michigan runs the ball at a rate 14% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

Since Northwestern is favored by 10.5 points, a significant amount of confidence points are likely to be wagered on the Wildcats. 

I’m not going to be as aggressive because Northwestern’s style makes it vulnerable to upsets. 

With both teams playing conservative run-heavy styles, it should be a low-scoring game which increases the odds of an upset. 

Additionally, Northwestern ranks 131st in red zone touchdown rate, while Central Michigan’s defense ranks 31st. 

So the potential exists for Northwestern to control this game, yet still struggle to put the Chippewas away. 

If you haven’t been following along with our picks and are far behind in your pool, this might be a good spot to strategically pick an upset in hopes of a significant point swing in your favor.

Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota

• Predicted Winner: New Mexico
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Rate Bowl Analysis: 

New Mexico runs a balanced offense and has the potential to create some problems for Minnesota with its scheme. 

In the run game, the Lobos favor spread formations which create light boxes at a high rate. 

And while New Mexico does not have a potent rushing attack, the Golden Gophers have struggled against those types of offenses, allowing 5.7 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 101st), per Sports Info Solutions. 

In the passing game, New Mexico gets the ball out quickly, relying on quick dropbacks 42% of the time, the 34th highest rate. 

Against quick dropbacks, the Gophers are allowing 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 89th. 

When the Lobos aren’t getting rid of the ball quickly, they’re attacking downfield 一 28% of throws outside the red zone have been at least 15 yards downfield. 

Jack Layne is completing 56% of those throws for New Mexico, while the Gophers are allowing a 51% completion rate, ranked 128th. 

Traditionally, Minnesota leans on its rushing attack but the pass game has become more prevalent this season due to some struggles on the ground. 

It will be hard to find running lanes in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Minnesota: ranked 131st in yards before contact
• New Mexico: ranked 19th in yards before contact allowed

Minnesota’s pro style passing attack has been moderately efficient due to a strong offensive line, but it’s hardly a unit that scares anyone. 

The Gophers rank 110th in completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards. 

Since there’s no downfield attack, Minnesota tends to attack underneath 一 53% of attempts travel five or fewer yards downfield, the 27th highest rate. 

However, the Gophers only averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on those throws , ranked 109th. 

P.J. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota, so his team will likely be focused, but New Mexico will also have plenty of motivation as it is appearing in its first bowl since 2016. 

First Responder Bowl: FIU vs. UTSA

• Predicted Winner: UTSA
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

First Responder Bowl Analysis: 

If at full strength, UTSA would likely dominate this game but head coach Jeff Traylor said the Road Runners will be “a shell of themselves” due to injuries and opt-outs. 

I’m sticking with UTSA as the pick, but dropping the confidence points down considerably. 

Although UTSA uses a slightly pass-heavy approach, expect the road runners to dominate on the ground based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• UTSA: ranked 11th in yards before contact
• FIU: ranked 130th in yards before contact allowed

FIU is also expected to be without three starters in the secondary, weakening what had been one of the strengths of the team. 

The lack of secondary depth is especially concerning given FIU’s inability to get to the quarterback, as the Panthers rank 91st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.

UTSA has been a boom-or-bust defense this year, excelling at creating negative plays but also ranking 124th in explosive play rate allowed. 

That’s a concerning trend against this FIU team which ranks 26th in explosive play rate, especially with multiple defensive starters expected to be missing for the Road Runners.

Military Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina

• Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Military Bowl Analysis: 

East Carolina will be without quarterback Katin Houser, who has opted out with intentions of entering the transfer portal. 

That leaves the Pirates with either freshman Chaston Ditta, who attempted just seven passes this season, or journeyman Mike Wright, who played more snaps at wide receiver and cornerback than quarterback this year. 

Wright, however, does have prior starting experience at Northwestern, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. 

Due to its quarterback mess, East Carolina probably tries to lean on its run game, but that’s unlikely to work out based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• East Carolina: ranked 50th in yards before contact
• Pittsburgh: ranked 21st in yards before contact allowed
• East Carolina: ranked 120th in yards after contact
• Pittsburgh: ranked 8th in yards after contact allowed

Pitt leans on a pass-heavy offense which has gotten the Panthers in trouble at times due to the inconsistency of true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. 

However, East Carolina only ranks 97th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated and likely lacks the ability to create much disruption. 

Heintschel likes to attack downfield and should have success against a Pirates defense ranked 92nd in completion rate allowed on throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone. 

Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State vs. Clemson

• Predicted Winner: Clemson
• Confidence Points: 1-5 point range

Pinstripe Bowl Analysis: 

Congratulations to Penn State and Clemson on being selected to the Underachiever Bowl 一 your reward is getting to play in freezing temperatures in Yankee Stadium. 

The team that wins will be the one most invested in the game, but it’s tough to guess who actually cares about this contest. 

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik says he will play, likely giving a slight edge to Clemson as most other notable players on both sides are opting out. 

Check back close to kickoff as there could be more opt-out news yet to come.

Fenway Bowl: UConn vs. Army

• Predicted Winner: Army
• Confidence Points: 6-10 point range

Fenway Bowl Analysis: 

Last minute change  – UConn appears to be without backup quarterback Nick Evers, leaving the Huskies with a fourth-string freshman quarterback. Take Army

A significant portion of UConn’s roster is planning to enter the transfer portal, some of whom may follow head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State. 

However, only quarterback Joe Fagano has stated his intention to opt out of the bowl game so far. 

Star receiver Skyler Bell (entering NFL draft) and running back Cam Edwards (entering portal), both team captains, have stated their intention to play which bodes well for others joining them. 

When at full strength, UConn is easily the better team and even the loss of Fagano isn’t a devastating blow as backup Nick Evers was the team’s primary starter in 2024. 

It’s also worth noting that UConn played Rice and Air Force this season, two of the four option-heavy offenses in the college game. 

One of the best predictors of success against the option is recent experience against the scheme. 

UConn tends to lean on the quick passing game, using quick dropbacks 42% of the time, which is likely to create issues for Army’s defense. 

Check out the matchup on quick dropbacks:

• UConn: 8.5 yards per attempt, ranked 7th
• Army: 6.8 yards per attempt, ranked 78th

Check back close to kickoff as more UConn opt out could sway me to pick Army, but as of now it looks like the Huskies have enough of their star players to win.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

• Predicted Winner: BYU
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Pop-Tarts Bowl Analysis: 

BYU wants to lean on its power rushing attack and Georgia Tech has one of the worst run defenses in the country. 

Check out the run-game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• BYU: ranked 84th in yards before contact
• Georgia Tech: ranked 125th in yards before contact allowed
• BYU: ranked 22nd in yards after contact
• Georgia Tech: ranked 125th in yards after contact allowed

The Yellow Jackets also rank dead last in the FBS in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box (6.7), which is key against a fairly traditional BYU scheme which allows for stacked boxes at an elevated rate. 

The playing field may be leveled slightly due to injuries to BYU star running back LJ Martin and his backup Sione Moa, but it's unlikely Georgia Tech can stop anyone BYU sends out there. 

On offense, Georgia Tech will be without coordinator Buster Faulkner, who took the same job at Florida, leaving Chris Weinke to call plays for the first time in his career. 

Georgia Tech should also have success on the ground against a BYU defense which ranks 116th in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box. 

To BYU’s credit, however, its defense has been a bend-but-don’t-break unit this year. 

Despite some issues in defending the run, BYU ranks 29th in explosive rush rate allowed, which has forced teams to attempt to piece together long scoring drives. 

BYU's defense then locks down the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 40% of red zone triple, ranked fifth. 

That’s a concerning trend for Georgia Tech’s offense which only ranks 86th in red zone touchdown rate. 

Arizona Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State

• Predicted Winner: Fresno State
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Arizona Bowl Analysis: 

Miami is without starting quarterback Dequan Finn who quit the team in November to focus on the NFL draft. 

In four games since Finn’s departure, Miami’s passing attack has been a mess. 

Henry Hesson and Thomas Gotkowski combined to complete 40% of their passes down the stretch, and just 23% when facing pressure. 

That’s a concerning trend based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 100th in pressure rate allowed
• Fresno State: ranked 45th in pressure rate generated

Miami will likely try to lean on the run game, but it is also playing without starting running back Kenny Tracy who was lost for the year due to an injury. 

Miami’s defense is also expected to be without star pass-rusher Adam Trick, who plans to enter the portal. 

Trick generated 80 pressures and an impressive 21% pressure rate this season 一 no other Red Hawk defender generated more than 19 pressures, per Sports Info Solutions. 

MAC programs typically don’t have the depth to overcome so many critical losses.

New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State

• Predicted Winner: North Texas
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

New Mexico Bowl Analysis: 

The outcome of this game could be decided by North Texas’ opt-out situation. 

Head coach Eric Morris is already gone, having taken the job at Oklahoma State. 

A number of players are expected to enter the portal, though Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is among those and is expected to play 一 his decision could set the tone for the team choosing to close the best season in school history out at full strength. 

Star running back Caleb Hawkins, who was injured in the conference title game, is also expected to suit up. 

Even at full strength this won’t be an easy matchup for the North Texas offense. 

While the Mean Green rank fifth in explosive play rate on offense, San Diego State leads the nation in explosive play rate on defense. 

This might not be the same Aztecs defense however, as coordinator Rob Aurich left for Nebraska, leaving cornerbacks coach Demetrius Sumler to call plays for the first time. 

The strength of San Diego State’s defense has been its pass rush, but North Texas can neutralize anyone’s pass rush with its quick passing attack. 

The Mean Green use quick dropbacks 53% of the time.

However, San Diego State has defended quick dropbacks well, only allowing 5.0 yards per attempt, the nation’s ninth lowest rate. 

Although this should be a tight game, as long as Mestemaker plays it's easier to trust North Texas. 

San Diego State will be without quarterback Jayden Denegal, leaving Bert Emanuel Jr. to make his first start since 2023 at Central Michigan. 

Gator Bowl: Virginia vs. Missouri

• Predicted Winner: Missouri
• Confidence Points: 11-15 point range

Gator Bowl Analysis: 

Missouri will be without quarterback Beau Pribula (transfer portal), leaving Matt Zollers to take over. 

Zollers made two starts this season and was helpless against pressure, completing just 3 of 14 passes and taking five sacks. 

That’s a problematic trend against UVA based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Missouri: ranked 51st in pressure rate allowed
• Virginia: ranked 20th in pressure rate generated

Tigers’ star running back Ahmad Hardy will play (he’s a true sophomore), but runs into a tough test against the Cavaliers. 

Hardy has carried the ball into a stacked box 68% of the time, while UVA only allowed 3.3 yards per carry with a stacked box (ranked 14th). 

UVA quarterback Chandler Morris is expected to play as he is still hoping to remain eligible for a seventh season in 2026. 

Morris will face the best pass-rush unit he’s played against all year, as Missouri ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate. 

Although Morris excels at avoiding sacks, pressure has significantly disrupted the UVA passing attack as Morris only averages 5.8 yards per attempt under duress. 

Missouri’s defense is the best unit in this game and reason enough to take the Tigers in a close game, but check back close to kickoff to see if opt-outs change this pick 

Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston

• Predicted Winner: Houston
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Texas Bowl Analysis: 

LSU will be sending its B-squad to this game against a Houston team which will be close to full strength and looking to secure a 10-win season. 

The Tigers defense carried them all year but are expected to be without at least five starters, including four of their top six pass-rushers. 

At full strength LSU would have a considerable edge in the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats:

• Houston: ranked 96th in pressure rate allowed
• LSU: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated

If LSU’s primary area of strength is erased by opt-outs, it’s hard to envision the Tigers holding Houston’s offense down enough to win a low-scoring game. 

LSU will also be without all three linebackers, Whit Weeks, West Weeks and Harold Perkins. 

That’s problematic against Houston’s run-heavy spread offense, which creates light boxes at a high rate. 

LSU ranks 14th in yards per attempt allowed with a light box, but that success requires experienced, disciplined play from linebackers which the Tigers may be lacking. 

Although LSU likely still has the more talented roster, Houston's massive edge in experience and motivation likely wins out. 

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State

• Predicted Winner: Georgia Southern
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Birmingham Bowl Analysis: 

This is a rare instance of a conference game getting played in a bowl since Appalachian State was a late replacement after initially not being eligible at 5-7. 

Georgia Southern held off a late Appalachian State rally to win the first meeting 25-23. 

App State has a long list of players planning to enter the transfer portal, including both quarterbacks AJ Swann and JJ Kohl, though it's possible one or both could still play. 

Georgia Southern quarterback JC French averaged 9.5 yards per attempt when these teams met in early November and should have success again. 

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, App State lacks the pass rush to threaten French:

• Georgia Southern: ranked 16th in pressure rate allowed
• Appalachian State: ranked 116th in pressure rate generated

Georgia Southern dominated the first matchup, but kicked four field goals inside App State’s 10-yard line. 

Although head coach Clay Helton could certainly get in his own way again with such conservative decision making, that’s unlikely against an App State defense that ranked 70th in red zone touchdown rate. 

The only reason to not put more confidence points on this game is Georgia Southern’s defense, which is one of the worst in the country against both the run and pass. 

Georgia Southern ranks 126th in opponent-adjusted scoring, so the Eagles could give this game away 一 though App State’s offense only ranks 98th by the same metric.

Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

• Predicted Winner: Louisiana Tech
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Independence Bowl Analysis: 

Louisiana Tech runs the ball at a rate 7.1% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton, and should move the ball easily against the Chanticleers. 

Coastal Carolina ranks 127th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions, and it allows at least three yards before contact on 30% of carries (ranked 99th). 

Third-string quarterback Trey Kuluk will likely start for the Bulldogs due to injuries, but he made two starts at the end of the year and has prior starting experience at the JUCO level. 

Kuluk adds a new dimension to the offense due to his dynamic running ability, as he ran for 310 yards in his two starts.

Coastal Carolina head coach Tim Beck was fired after the season and the team is stumbling into the bowl on a three-game losing streak, so there might not be a ton of motivation on the Chanticleers sideline.

Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Illinois

• Predicted Winner: Illinois
• Confidence Points: 16-20 point range

Music City Bowl Analysis: 

Although this game is in Tennessee and less than three hours from Knoxville, don’t expect a full homefield advantage for the Vols. 

The Illini aren’t a perennial bowl team (it's just their fifth in the last 14 years), and a trip to Nashville is an easy sell to fans. 

As for the matchup, expect a shootout as defense is a weakness for both teams. 

Tennessee’s secondary has been a mess all year, partially due to an injury to potential first-round pick Jermod McCoy before the season. 

Colton Hood, the Vols most reliable corner in McCoy’s absence has opted out of this game leaving a bad secondary in serious trouble. 

Due to those issues in the secondary, Tennessee has allowed 20 or more yards on 11% of pass plays, ranked 100th. 

Expect Luke Altmyer to attack the Vols downfield early and often. 

Outside the red zone, the Illini throw 15 or more yards downfield 26% of the time, the 31st highest rate, while completing 62% of those passes, ranked second in the FBS per Sports Info Solutions. 

Illinois has struggled against the best defenses it faced this year in part due to an inconsistent offensive line. 

Even the surprising loss to Wisconsin can be explained by the Badgers ranking 23rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and generating 52% pressure rate against the Illini. 

Tennessee, however, ranks 59th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and the Illini went 4-1 while averaging 37 points per game against teams ranked outside the top 50. 

When the Vols are on offense they should also have a significant edge in the pass-protection battle as Illinois ranked 130th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and its best pass-rusher Gabe Jacas has opted out. 

Despite the lack of pass rush, Illinois’ defense has held up reasonably well due to its playmakers in the secondary. 

On throws 15 or more yards downfield outside the red zone, the Illini rank 18th in completion rate allowed. 

As a result, Illinois ranks ninth in explosive play rate allowed and should be relatively successful at limiting Tennessee’s explosive offensive attack. 

Tennessee’s leading receiver Chris Brazzell II is also among the opt-outs, which further hurts the Vols chances of finding success downfield. 

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Brazzell commanded a 35% target share.

Alamo Bowl: USC vs. TCU

• Predicted Winner: TCU
• Confidence Points: 21-25 point range

Alamo Bowl Analysis: 

Both teams in this matchup have been hit hard by opt-outs 

Although USC is missing more players, TCU will sorely miss quarterback Josh Hoover. 

TCU will start former Vanderbilt quarterback Ken Seals, who made 22 starts for the Commoders but has barely seen the field in two years with the Horned Frogs. 

This is potentially problematic as TCU runs a pass-heavy offense, throwing the ball at a rate 7.6% above expected based on situational data from Campus2Canton. 

Further complicating things for TCU’s offense is the departure of coordinator Kendall Briles, who has already left the team for the same job at South Carolina. 

TCU quarterbacks have taken a quick dropback 48% of the time this year, the 19th highest rate, so Seals’ lack of experience in the offense could be problematic as timing is critical to this scheme. 

However, USC has struggled to defend quick dropbacks, ranking 109th in yards per attempt on those plays (7.5), according to Sports Info Solutions. 

USC has significantly more opt-outs than TCU, most notably star safety Kamari Ramsey, who wore the green dot for the Trojans defense. 

In four games without Ramsey (including the Iowa game, in which he played just eight snaps), USC went 2-2 while allowing a full yard per play more than the games when Ramsey was on the field. 

Safety Bishop Fitzgerald, pass-rusher Anthony Lucas and linebacker Eric Gentry have also opted out.

So the Trojans will be without arguably the four best players from an already shaky defense. 

USC will also be without leading receivers Ja’Kobi Lane, Makai Lemon and tight end Lake McRee.

That trio accounted for 66% of the Trojans receiving yards this season. 

Although USC would certainly have an offensive edge at full strength, this may be closer to an even matchup since TCU is not expected to have any defensive opt-outs. 

If USC tries to lean more on the run game due to a lack of pass-game weapons, that might play into TCU’s hand. 

The Frogs 3-3-5 defense is built to defend spread offenses like Lincoln Riley’s and TCU ranks 28th in yards per rush attempt allowed with a light box. 

The downside to TCU’s scheme is an inconsistent pass-rush unit, though that might not be an issue against USC which has struggled since left tackle Elijah Page was lost to injury. 

Quarterback Jayden Maiava faced a pressure rate of 30% or higher in each of the three games USC has played without Page. 

ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt

• Predicted Winner: Vanderbilt
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

ReliaQuest Bowl Analysis: 

As always, Kirk Ferentz’s squad uses a run-heavy offense but has struggled to consistently move the ball due to a mediocre offensive line. 

Based on opponent-adjusted numbers, the Hawkeyes rank 103rd in yards before contact (side note: how on earth did this unit win the Joe Moore Award as the nation’s best offensive line?). 

Iowa’s running backs have salvaged the run game by producing after contact, but that won’t be easy against Vanderbuilt. 

According to Sports Info Solutions, Vandy ranks 29th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed. 

On offense, Vanderbilt leans on Diego Pavia as both a runner and passer. 

It will likely be hard for Iowa to get Vandy off the field, as the Commodores rank third in the nation in third-and-long avoidance. 

Iowa’s defense only forces opponents into third-and-long situations 22% of the time, ranked 76th.

Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs. Duke

• Predicted Winner: Duke
• Confidence Points: 36-40 point range

Sun Bowl Analysis: 

Arizona State will be without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt, with journeyman Jeff Sims making his sixth start of the year. 

However, Kenny Dillingham said freshman Cam Dyer, who has never taken the field, will also see some action. 

If Dillingham is willing to let a freshman make his debut in this game, that says a lot about how seriously Arizona State is taking this contest.

Arizona State is also expected to be without its top three rushers Raleek Brown, Kyson Brown and Kanye Udoh, and leading receiver Jordan Tyson. 

Three offensive line starters are also expected to be out for the Sun Devils due to opt-outs and injuries, which is concerning against this Duke defense. 

Although Duke has had all sorts of issues on the defensive side of the ball this year, the pass rush has been its one strength. 

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers, Duke should dominate that area of the game, especially accounting for ASU’s missing linemen:

• Arizona State: ranked 95th in pressure rate allowed
• Duke: ranked 18th in pressure rate generated

On the other side of the ball Duke ranks 17th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense and the majority of the roster, most notably quarterback Darian Mensah, is going to suit up. 

The ACC champs are trying to get to nine wins in consecutive seasons for just the second time in school history, so the Blue Devils are likely significantly more motivated than Arizona State.

Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. Texas

• Predicted Winner: Texas
• Confidence Points: 26-30 point range

Citrus Bowl Analysis: 

Michigan has only announced three opt-outs, so the Wolverines might be more focused than initially expected. 

Although the Sherrone Moore mess could be a distraction, it may also be serving as motivation for the players to win this game and put that sideshow behind them. 

Texas, on the other hand, will be without nearly its entire defense which was shocked by the firing of coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski.

Unfortunately for Michigan, two of its opt-outs will weaken the strength of the team. 

Leading pass-rushers Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham will not play, after accounting for 30% of the team’s pressures during the regular season. 

Michigan’s run-heavy offense likely would have had trouble with Texas during the regular season, but it’s tough to guess how this version of the Longhorns defense will perform. 

During the regular season, Texas ranked in the top 10 of both opponent-adjusted yards before and after contact. 

It’s tough to trust either team but with time to prepare, Texas’ offense should look improved and there’s still enough talent on defense to contain Michigan’s limited offense.

Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State

• Predicted Winner: Texas State
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Armed Forces Bowl Analysis: 

Texas State ranks 14th in opponent-adjusted scoring offense, while Rice ranks 132nd and will be without its starting quarterback. 

It would be shocking if Rice had enough offense to keep pace in this game.

Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati

• Predicted Winner: Navy
• Confidence Points: 31-35 point range

Liberty Bowl Analysis: 

At full strength Cincinnati might be favored in this game, but the Bearcats are expected to be without at least six starters including quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has entered the portal.  

The service academies tend to do well in bowl games because their unique offense requires a lot of focus and preparation, and a team dealing with significant opt-outs is less likely to be locked in. 

Without Sorsby, the Bearcats might lean more on their rushing attack but Navy’s physical defensive front poses a challenge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Cincinnati: ranked 39th in yards before contact
• Navy: ranked 17th in yards before contact allowed

Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. Utah

• Predicted Winner: Utah
• Confidence Points: 41-47 point range

Las Vegas Bowl Analysis: 

It was easier to pick Utah in this matchup when it was supposed to be a farewell show for Kyle Whittingham, but the Utes are still significantly more talented than the Huskers. 

The Utes will be without both starting tackles who are likely first-round draft picks, but this Nebraska run defense was a mess this season. 

Expect Utah to run all over the Huskers based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Utah: ranked 2nd in yards before contact
• Nebraska: 121st in yards before contact allowed

Nebraska’s offense is also likely to struggle with Utah’s pass rush, which ranks second in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.

2025 Bowl Game Schedule:

This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup. 

Let’s dive into the Cotton Bowl matchup between Miami and Ohio State.  

Miami vs. Ohio State, current line:

• Ohio State -7.5 at Novig

Miami vs. Ohio State Best Bet Prediction:

The Buckeyes offense is likely too talented for Miami to keep pace, so take Ohio State against the spread. 

• Miami vs. Ohio State, best line: Ohio State -7.5

» Bet it now at Novig: Miami -7.5 points

When Miami is on Offense

Miami runs a conservative but pass-heavy offense under coordinator Shannon Dawson, relying on Carson Beck’s ability to distribute the ball efficiently on underneath routes. 

However, we just saw Mark Fletcher and Miami dominate Texas A&M with the ground game, so let’s start by dissecting that area of the Hurricane offense in this matchup. 

Fletcher’s performance against the Aggies defense came as no surprise, as A&M can’t tackle and was routinely gashed on the ground by the few good teams it faced this year. 

Texas A&M ranked 129th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed entering that first-round matchup 一 Ohio State ranks fourth.

Miami is also unlikely to find many open lanes in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 85th in yards before contact
• Ohio State: ranked 32nd in yards before contact allowed

Ohio State’s defense also ranks eighth in explosive rush rate allowed, whereas Texas A&M ranks 124th. 

So the Canes will likely need to rely on Beck and the passing attack to provide the offense in this matchup. 

Fortunately for Miami, it appears to hold an edge in the pass-protection battle based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:

• Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed
• Ohio State: ranked 37th in pressure rate generated

Beck takes traditional dropbacks at a high rate (55%), but that typically doesn’t hurt the Canes' pass protection. It still leads the nation in pressure rate allowed on those plays. 

While Ohio State might not get to Beck often, its pass defense has been exceptional against traditional dropbacks, allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt, ranked fourth in the nation. 

One of the reasons Miami’s passing game struggled against Texas A&M is its tendency to attack underneath. 

Since the Canes don’t trust Beck to throw downfield (more on that later), 57% of their throws have been five or fewer yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate. 

That was problematic against A&M, which has playmakers at the second level capable of stepping up against those throws, and the Aggies allow just 5.1 yards per completion on those plays. 

Unfortunately for Miami, the only defense that has been better than A&M is Ohio State, which is allowing 4.9 yards per completion on those short throws. 

When Miami does attack downfield, Ohio State’s secondary is also more dangerous than A&M's. 

The Canes don’t throw downfield often due to Beck’s tendency to put the ball in harm’s way. 

Beck has thrown 22 interceptions over the last two years, and his ball-hawk rate indicates there’s nothing fluky about those numbers. 

On Miami’s throws 10 or more yards downfield, the defense has made a play on the ball 22% of the time this season, ranked 123rd per Sports Info Solutions.

Beck protected the ball against A&M, but a factor in that outcome was the Aggies secondary which ranks 117th in downfield ball-hawk rate. 

While Ohio State’s secondary isn’t elite in that area, it ranks 65th, which makes it significantly more dangerous than A&M, especially against a turnover prone quarterback. 

This trend could potentially come into play if Miami were to fall behind and get forced into a more aggressive game plan. 

In that scenario, Beck will likely start forcing some questionable decisions, and an ill-timed turnover could allow Ohio State to blow the game open. 

It’s also worth noting Miami’s offense doesn’t produce a ton of big plays, ranking only 64th in explosive play rate. 

Meanwhile, the Buckeye defense leads the nation in explosive play rate allowed 一 another trend which diminishes the odds of Beck leading a late comeback should the Canes fall behind.

When Ohio State is on Offense

Ohio State runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach Ryan Day and coordinator Brian Hartline.

Hartline, in his first season as the Buckeyes' play caller, has taken the head coaching job at South Florida but is remaining with Ohio State through the playoffs. 

According to Campus2Canton, the Buckeyes throw the ball at a rate 6.8% above expected based on situation data. 

A pass-centric approach has not been the best way to attack Miami this season, but Ohio State’s offensive line will be one of the best the Hurricanes have faced. 

Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

• Ohio State: ranked 12th in pressure rate allowed 
• Miami: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated

Redshirt-freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has handled pressure well this season, but showed some flaws against Indiana in the Big Ten title game.