Looking to bet on the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

We've got you covered with the latest betting odds for which player will be selected No. 1 on Thursday, April 23.

Last Updated: April 13

No. 1 Overall Pick Odds: Current Line

Who has the #1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

The Las Vegas Raiders have the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

What player will be selected #1 in the 2026 NFL Draft?

According to current betting odds, Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana) is predicted to be drafted No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 99.5% implied probability (-20000).

Favorites to be drafted #1 in the NFL Draft:

• Fernando Mendoza (-20000)
• Arvell Reese (+8000)
• David Bailey (+9000)
• Ty Simpson (+9000)

2026 NFL Mock Drafts

Find out who our top-rated experts expect the Raiders to select at No. 1 overall:

• Brendan Donahue's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.
• Ryan McCrystal's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #20 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.

Explore more 2026 NFL Draft odds:

The first wide receiver drafted odds for the 2026 NFL Draft are one of the most interesting prop markets on the board.

The WR class is deep, and the pecking order is far from settled.

Let's look at the odds for the first wide receiver drafted in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Last Updated: April 13

First WR Drafted Odds: Current Lines

Who Will Be the First Wide Receiver Drafted?

According to current betting odds, Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State) is predicted to be the first wide receiver selected in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 81.8% implied probability (-450).

Favorites to be the first wide receiver drafted:

• Carnell Tate (-450)
• Jordyn Tyson (+330)
• Makai Lemon (+750)

2026 NFL Mock Drafts

Find out who our top-rated experts expect to be the first wide receiver drafted:

• Brendan Donahue's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.
• Ryan McCrystal's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #20 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.

Explore more 2026 NFL Draft odds:

Looking to bet on the second overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

We've got you covered with the latest betting odds for which player will be selected No. 2 on Thursday, April 23.

Last Updated: April 13

No. 2 Overall Pick Odds: Current Line

Who has the #2 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

The New York Jets have the second overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

What player will be selected #2 in the 2026 NFL Draft?

According to current betting odds, David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech) is predicted to be drafted No. 2 in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 63.6% implied probability (-175).

Favorites to be drafted #2 in the NFL Draft:

• David Bailey (-175)
• Arvell Reese (+130)
• Sonny Styles (+2800)
• Rueben Bain Jr. (+3500)

2026 NFL Mock Drafts

Find out who our top-rated experts expect the Jets to select at No. 2 overall:

• Brendan Donahue's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.
• Ryan McCrystal's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #20 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.

Explore more 2026 NFL Draft odds:

Looking to bet on the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

We've got you covered with the latest betting odds for which player will be selected No. 3 on Thursday, April 23.

Last Updated: April 13

No. 3 Overall Pick Odds: Current Line

Who has the #3 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

The Arizona Cardinals have the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

What player will be selected #3 in the 2026 NFL Draft?

According to current betting odds, Arvell Reese (EDGE, Ohio State) is predicted to be drafted No. 3 in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 48.8% implied probability (+105).

Favorites to be drafted #3 in the NFL Draft:

• Arvell Reese (+105)
• David Bailey (+265)
• Francis Mauigoa (+600)
• Jeremiyah Love (+1000)
• Sonny Styles (+1100)

2026 NFL Mock Drafts

Find out who our top-rated experts expect the Cardinals to select at No. 3 overall:

• Brendan Donahue's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.
• Ryan McCrystal's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #20 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.

Explore more 2026 NFL Draft odds:

The first offensive lineman drafted odds for the 2026 NFL Draft are drawing sharp attention, with multiple mock drafts projecting tackles as genuine top-10 candidates.

Let's look at the odds for the first offensive lineman drafted in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Last Updated: April 13

First OL Drafted Odds: Current Lines

Who Will Be the First Offensive Lineman Drafted?

According to current betting odds, Francis Mauigoa (OT, Miami) is predicted to be the first offensive lineman selected in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 75.0% implied probability (-300).

Favorites to be the first offensive lineman drafted:

• Francis Mauigoa (-300)
• Spencer Fano (+500)
• Monroe Freeling (+550)

2026 NFL Mock Drafts

Find out who our top-rated experts expect to be the first offensive lineman drafted:

• Brendan Donahue's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.
• Ryan McCrystal's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #20 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.

Explore more 2026 NFL Draft odds:

Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive all our 2026 NFL content:

If you've never bet the NFL Draft before, you're missing one of the most entertaining betting events on the sports calendar.

Learning how to bet the NFL Draft isn't complicated, but it requires a different mindset than betting on games.

There are no point spreads, no injury reports the night before, and no weather forecasts to consult.

Instead, you're navigating a market built almost entirely on speculation, insider information, and public perception, which means the edges are real for bettors who do their homework.

This guide covers everything you need: what markets are available, where to find them, how to build a strategy that goes beyond guessing, and what historical trends are actually worth paying attention to.

Find all of our 2026 NFL Draft Content in our 2026 NFL Draft Guide

What Is NFL Draft Betting?

NFL Draft betting is wagering on the outcomes of the annual NFL Draft

Not on games, but on the selections themselves.

Which prospect goes first overall? Will a quarterback run happen in the top ten? Does a specific player get taken in Round 1 or slip to Day 2?

What Can You Bet on in the NFL Draft?

First 10 Overall Picks

The No. 1 overall pick is the headliner of NFL Draft betting, but there are usually odds posted for every pick in the top 10.

In most years, the No. 1 pick market features one or two heavy favorites and a handful of longshots worth considering if the consensus shifts, though that is not the case in 2026 with Fernando Mendoza the heavy favorite.

Top 5 & Top 10 Pick Props

Beyond the specific picks, sportsbooks offer props on whether specific prospects will be selected within the top five, top 10, top 15, or in the first round.

Top five and top 10 props are useful because they let you express a view on a prospect's general range without having to nail an exact pick number.

If you believe a player is likely to be a top-five selection but aren't sure which exact slot, the top-five prop is a cleaner bet than trying to pick the specific pick.

Individual Player Draft Position

For most notable prospects, sportsbooks will post a draft position over/under, a number representing the expected pick at which that player will be selected.

These props are where the most research pays off, because they require you to form an independent view of a prospect's value relative to where the market has priced him.

The consensus big board and where you disagree with it is your primary research tool.

Check out Ryan McCrystal's 2026 NFL Draft Big Board

Team-Specific Props

For high-profile picks, sportsbooks often post props on which specific prospect a team will select.

These are also offered on a position basis, often asking what position the team will draft with their first pick.

Team-specific props reward bettors with genuine knowledge of a team's needs, coaching staff preferences, and front office history.

Beat reporters who cover a team closely are more valuable sources than national pundits for this type of bet.

Top-30 visits can also offer insight, though they should be used more to see what positions a team is targeting rather than a specific player.

Team-level intel about which prospects a front office has prioritized is the most direct input into whether these props are mispriced.

When Do Draft Lines Go Live?

Most sportsbooks open their primary draft markets in January or February, once the class has clarified enough to price.

Secondary markets, including individual player over/unders for Day 2 and Day 3 prospects, typically open in the weeks immediately before the draft, so it is important to keep an eye on markets as they update.

Line shopping is important for any bet, but it's especially important for draft props where market inefficiency is higher and the gap between the best and worst available line on a given prop can be substantial.

A few practical approaches:

• Use multiple books. You don't need accounts at 10 sportsbooks, but having three or four good options gives you the ability to take the best number available. The difference between -110 and -130 on a prop you're confident in meaningfully affects your long-term return.
• Act early on your highest-conviction bets. If you've done the research and believe a prospect is being significantly undervalued, the best line is almost always the first line before the market has been informed by the same sources you're using.
• Act late when you have timing advantages. For props on prospects who work out or interview later in the pre-draft process, you may have access to information, such as late-breaking visit news, medical clearances, that haven't fully been priced into the market yet.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

The first cornerback drafted odds for the 2026 NFL Draft are drawing sharp attention, with multiple mock drafts projecting defensive backs as genuine top-10 candidates.

Let's look at the odds for the first cornerback drafted in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Last Updated: April 13

First CB Drafted Odds: Current Lines

Who Will Be the First Cornerback Drafted?

According to current betting odds, Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU) is predicted to be the first cornerback selected in the 2026 NFL Draft with an 67.7% implied probability (-210).

Favorites to be the first cornerback drafted:

• Mansoor Delane (-210)
• Jermod McCoy (+130)
• Colton Hood (+7500)
• Chris Johnson (+7500)

2026 NFL Mock Drafts

Find out who our top-rated experts expect to be the first cornerback drafted:

• Brendan Donahue's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.
• Ryan McCrystal's 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Complete first round breakdown from the #20 most accurate mock drafter over the last five seasons.

Explore more 2026 NFL Draft odds:

The Seahawks are still celebrating, but it is time to look toward Super Bowl 61 betting odds.

Below you can find current odds to win and best bets, including favorites and sleepers.

Last Updated: April 6

Prediction: Who will win Super Bowl 61?

The Los Angeles Rams (+750) are the current favorite to win Super Bowl LXI based on betting markets, followed by:

• Seattle Seahawks (+950)
• Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
• Buffalo Bills (+1000)
• Kansas City Chiefs (+1400)
• Green Bay Packers (+1500)

Super Bowl 61 Odds

Explore More 2026 NFL Betting Odds

Super Bowl 61 Predictions: Expert Picks & Analysis

Best Favorite Bet to win Super Bowl 61: Los Angeles Rams (+750)

With Matthew Stafford returning and some much-needed help added to the secondary, the Rams are in position to make another push for a Lombardi Trophy. They do need an answer at right tackle with Rob Havenstein retiring, but they have the resources to fill any roster holes and get better at key positions.

Best Sleeper Bet to win Super Bowl 61: Minnesota Vikings (+4500)

The Vikings were arguably just a quarterback away in 2025. Their defense was third in yards per play allowed (4.7) and fourth in points per drive allowed (1.69) while getting pressure at the highest rate in the league (44.5%). Kyler Murray has his issues, but the Vikings just need him to be better than the 2025 version of J.J. McCarthy, which is not a high bar to clear.

Super Bowl 61 Betting Trends & Historical Data

• The NFC has won 4 of the last 6 Super Bowl Championships
• The Chiefs and Patriots are the only AFC Super Bowl winners since the Broncos defeated the Panthers in Super Bowl 50
• The Chiefs have participated in 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls
• The 2025 Seahawks had the second-longest preseason odds (+6000) of any future Super Bowl winner in history, behind just the 1999 Rams (+15000) and tied with the 2001 Patriots (+6000)

Past Super Bowl Winner Preseason Odds

• 2025: Seattle Seahawks +6000
• 2024: Philadelphia Eagles +1600
• 2023: Kansas City Chiefs +600
• 2022: Kansas City Chiefs +800
• 2021: Los Angeles Rams +1400
• 2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000
• 2019: Kansas City Chiefs +600
• 2018: New England Patriots +600
• 2017: Philadelphia Eagles +4000

When should you bet on the Super Bowl 61 Winner?

If you're betting on Super Bowl LXI favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season.

That way, you'll keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months or possibly use a bonus bet that does not tie up cash for months.

If making a bet early, identify teams that could have volatility in their odds with a single trade or signing, take a chance on those teams, and gain closing line value.

When placing a future bet like the Super Bowl 61 winner, an important concept to understand is the time value of money.

It is the idea that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to inflation and its earning potential in the interim.

Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the Super Bowl 61 bet will not be graded until February 2026, tying up funds wagered for a long time.

Before placing your Super Bowl Bet, be sure to check out BetMGM Sportsbook bonus code

The NFC championship race for 2026 is wide open, with perennial contenders facing fresh challengers.

We break down every NFC team's odds to win the conference, identify the chalk plays, value bets, and sleeper picks that could deliver massive returns for savvy bettors heading into next season.

Last Updated: April 6

NFC Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Rams (+400) are predicted to win the NFC Championship for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 20.0%.

2026 NFC Championship Odds

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NFC Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the NFC: Green Bay Packers (+800)

The Packers did not have the best injury luck in 2025, especially after losing Micah Parsons to a serious knee injury, but they were still competitive in the NFC. Green Bay is fifth in both yards per play and points per drive since Jordan Love took over in 2023, consistently creating explosive plays in an NFL that is getting better at stopping them. If they can manage the coaching change on defense, they should once again be in the mix.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the NFC: Minnesota Vikings (+2200)

The Vikings were arguably just a quarterback away in 2025. Their defense was third in yards per play allowed (4.7) and fourth in points per drive allowed (1.69) while getting pressure at the highest rate in the league (44.5%). There are more issues on offense outside of just J.J. McCarthy, but a veteran upgrade or just a step forward from McCarthy would put the Vikings in a great spot in 2026.

Historical NFC Trends

• There have been eight NFC Championship Game appearances from the NFC West in the last 10 seasons
• Each of the previous two NFC Championship Games featured teams from the same division (Seahawks vs. Rams & Eagles vs. Commanders)
• The Eagles (3), 49ers (2), and Rams (2) all have multiple NFC Championships in the last 10 seasons

The AFC championship race for 2026 is wide open, with perennial contenders facing fresh challengers.

We break down every AFC team's odds to win the conference, identify the chalk plays, value bets, and sleeper picks that could deliver massive returns for savvy bettors heading into next season.

Last Updated: April 6

AFC Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Bills (+500) are predicted to win the AFC Championship for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 16.7%.

2026 AFC Championship Odds

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AFC Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the AFC: Kansas City Chiefs (+700)

Do the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid? If yes, it’s hard to ever pass up on them at these odds to win the AFC. One year after Kansas City went 11-0 in one-score games in 2024, they went 1-9 in 2025 while going 0-8 against teams that made the playoffs. They were 1-7 on the road and were swept by the Chargers. All of these should regress positively in 2026.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the AFC: Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)

The only team with the same coach and the same quarterback in the AFC North. Joe Burrow started the season 2-0 before injury cost him most of the year. It was the first time the Bengals actually started the season hot. With Cincinnati, the question is never if they’ll win with Burrow; the question is always if Burrow can stay healthy. You have to believe a big emphasis will be on Burrow’s health this offseason in both free agency and the draft. The Bengals are a solid value.

Historical AFC Trends

• The Chiefs had participated in seven consecutive AFC Championship Games before the 2025 season
• The Patriots have appeared in 4 of the last 10 AFC Championship Games, but 2025 was their first appearance since the 2018 season
• The Bengals are the only team besides the Patriots and Chiefs to win the AFC since the Broncos in 2015

The NFC West is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

NFC West Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Rams (+140) are predicted to win the NFC West for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 41.7%.

2026 NFC West Division Winner Odds

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NFC West Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (+175)

The Seahawks just won the Super Bowl, vanquishing their rival Rams along the way. Now they are not even the favorites to win the division? They have some work to do to keep the secondary together, but they have plenty of cap space to keep guys like Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen around while improving in other key areas. Losing Klint Kubiak hurts, but the Seahawks have everything they need to make another run.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the NFC West: San Francisco 49ers (+245)

The 49ers will stay healthy at some point, right? Assuming they don't once again fall victim to the power substation, we know San Francisco will be in the mix, and they have enough ammo to make a run at a few free agents this offseason. They could also get a good haul from trading Mac Jones after he filled in admirably in 2025. The division is the toughest in the league, but the 49ers can overcome the Rams and Seahawks if the injury gods call off the plague.

Historical NFC West Trends

• The Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers each have two NFC West Championships over the last six seasons
• The Cardinals last won the NFC West in 2015
• An NFC West team has participated in the Super Bowl in 5 of the last 8 seasons, with 2 wins over that stretch including the 2025 Seahawks

The NFC South is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

NFC South Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Buccaneers (+150) are predicted to win the NFC South for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 40.0%.

2026 NFC South Division Winner Odds

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NFC South Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the NFC South: New Orleans Saints (+290)

Though they finished fourth in the division, the Saints were arguably the best team in the NFC South by the end of the season. Tyler Shough looks like a potential answer at quarterback, though he still has a long way to go, and the Saints will have a top-10 pick to add around him. Their recurring cap issues could make a quick turnaround impossible, but it is not like the rest of the division will run away from them.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the NFC South: Carolina Panthers (+320)

The Panthers probably were not the best overall team in the division last year, but history will show they won the NFC South in 2025. Now they are the clear No. 4 option on the board? That looks like a value, even if the Panthers need to hit this offseason to continue getting better.

Historical NFC South Trends

• The Panthers' 2025 NFC South crown stopped a run of four straight titles for Tampa Bay
• Every NFC South team has won the division in the last 10 seasons
• The Falcons have the longest current title drought, last winning the division in 2016

The NFC North is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

NFC North Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Lions (+180) are predicted to win the NFC North for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 35.7%.

2026 NFC North Division Winner Odds

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NFC North Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the NFC North: Green Bay Packers (+190)

The Lions led the division in bad injury luck, but the Packers were not that far behind, especially after losing Micah Parsons to a serious knee injury. Green Bay is fifth in both yards per play and points per drive since Jordan Love took over in 2023, consistently creating explosive plays in an NFL that is getting better at stopping them. If they can manage the coaching change on defense, they should once again be in the mix.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (+550)

The Vikings were arguably just a quarterback away in 2025. Their defense was third in yards per play allowed (4.7) and fourth in points per drive allowed (1.69) while getting pressure at the highest rate in the league (44.5%). There are more issues on offense outside of just J.J. McCarthy, but a veteran upgrade or just a step forward from McCarthy would put the Vikings in a great spot in 2026.

Historical NFC North Trends

• Every team in the NFC North has won the division at least two times in the last nine seasons
• The Packers won the division 11 times from 2011 to 2021, but they have not won the NFC North since
• The Vikings have the most division championships with 21

The NFC East is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

NFC East Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Eagles (+115) are predicted to win the NFC East for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 46.5%.

2026 NFC East Division Winner Odds

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NFC East Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (+115)

Despite a turbulent season and awful play calling, the Eagles easily walked away with the division by simply having the most talented roster. We need to see what happens with A.J. Brown this offseason, but the roster remains quality, the offensive coaching staff cannot get worse, and the division might not be any better behind them.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the NFC East: Washington Commanders (+450)

Washington tried to go all in with their young quarterback, and it backfired spectacularly. They still have that talented quarterback, though, and they have a lot of cap space to take another shot at it with Jayden Daniels on his rookie contract. They are in a perfect post-hype spot.

Historical NFC East Trends

• The Eagles have won the NFC East in 5 of the last 9 seasons
• The Cowboys have won the NFC East 25 times in division history, most recently in 2023
• The Giants have not won the division since the 2011 season, the longest drought in the NFC East

The AFC West is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

AFC West Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Chiefs (+165) are predicted to win the AFC West for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 37.7%.

2026 AFC West Division Winner Odds

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AFC West Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (+165)

The same logic as the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen. Do the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid? If yes, it’s hard to ever pass up on them at these odds to win their division. One year after Kansas City went 11-0 in one-score games in 2024, they went 1-9 in 2025 while going 0-8 against teams that made the playoffs. They were 1-7 on the road and were swept by the Chargers. All of these should regress positively in 2026.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the AFC West: Denver Broncos (+220)

Denver won the AFC West last year by multiple games, went 5-1 in the division, has an elite defense, and a quarterback entering year three who can continue to get better and develop with better coaching, and they are +220 to win the division? Yes, Denver was able to take advantage of a schedule featuring 11 games against non-playoff teams (in which they amassed a 10-1 record). Yes, Denver went 11-2 (.846) in one-score games, the best record in the NFL. But they’re a solid look to exceed expectations yet again in 2026.

Historical AFC West Trends

• The Chiefs and Broncos have won every AFC West crown since the 2010 season
• Before the Broncos won in 2025, the Chiefs had won the division nine seasons in a row
• The Chargers have not won the AFC West since 2009, and the Raiders have not won the division since 2002

The AFC South is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

AFC South Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Texans (+135) are predicted to win the AFC South for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 42.6%.

2026 AFC South Division Winner Odds

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AFC South Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (+195)

Jacksonville won the division last year but is being priced as the #2 team this year. I don’t know how much better C.J. Stroud and the Texans can get, but I believe the Jaguars can get a lot better in Year 2 with Liam Coen. Trevor Lawrence came on massively towards the end of the season. From Week 11 on, Lawrence ranked top five in both EPA and success rate, throwing 19 touchdowns (#2) with the #1 TD rate in the entire NFL while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Jacksonville can clean things up even more in 2026 after ranking #28 in net penalty EPA in 2025.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the AFC South: Tennessee Titans (+750)

Lined as a massive sleeper for a reason, the Titans have a few things going for them. Tennessee will play a fourth-place schedule, and they will do so with an entirely new coaching staff. One of the worst defenses in the NFL will be coached by one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL, Robert Saleh. Cam Ward will be coached by a play caller who helped develop Josh Allen at an early age, Brian Daboll. This was a team that went 0-10 against playoff teams last year and 2-5 in one-score games. Tennessee recorded only 6 opponent interceptions (#29) while recording 130 penalties (#31). They also were #30 in EPA on third downs in field goal range and ranked #28 in red zone TD rate allowed. These are variables that could swing massively from one year to the next.

Historical AFC South Trends

• The Texans have won the AFC South in 8 of the last 15 seasons
• The Colts have the longest AFC South drought, last winning the division in 2014
• The Jaguars have only won the division three times, but those three wins have all come since the 2017 season

The AFC North is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

AFC North Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Ravens (-130) are predicted to win the AFC North for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 56.5%.

2026 AFC North Division Winner Odds

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AFC North Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals (+270)

The only team with the same coach and same quarterback in the AFC North is expected to finish in third place, but there’s no reason to buy that will be the case. Joe Burrow started the season 2-0 before injury cost him most of the year. It was the first time the Bengals actually started the season hot. With Cincinnati, the question is never if they’ll win with Burrow; the question is always if Burrow can stay healthy. You have to believe a big emphasis will be on Burrow’s health this offseason in both free agency and the draft. It remains to be seen how the Ravens will look with a new offense and head coach, and we don’t yet know who will quarterback the Steelers with their new head coach. The Bengals are a solid value.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (+425)

Similar logic to the favorite bet on the Bengals can play to the Steelers' advantage. The Bengals don’t win if Burrow isn’t healthy, and we’re not sure if they can keep him upright. The Ravens have a lot of question marks surrounding them, but they are still perceived as a substantial favorite in the AFC North. The only teams with longer odds to win a division in the AFC are the Titans, Browns, Jets, Raiders, and Dolphins. The Steelers are a much better team than all of them, and getting over +400 on a team that hasn’t produced a losing record in well over a decade is certainly worth a shot.

Historical AFC North Trends

• The Ravens have won the division 4 of the last 8 seasons
• The Steelers won their 25th AFC North crown in 2025
• The Browns have not won the AFC North since the 1989 season

The AFC East is heating up heading into the 2026 NFL season.

Our comprehensive odds analysis breaks down each team's chances to win the division, compares betting lines across major sportsbooks, and identifies the smartest wagers for bettors preparing for next year.

Last Updated: April 6

AFC East Prediction: 2026 Winner

The Bills (-145) are predicted to win the AFC East for the 2026 NFL season with an implied probability of 59.2%.

2026 AFC East Division Winner Odds

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AFC East Best Bet for 2026

Best Favorite Bet to win the AFC East: Buffalo Bills (-145)

The increased difficulty of the Patriots' schedule is massive. Buffalo was favored by 2.5 points IN New England Week 15 and won the game while covering the spread. It remains to be seen if new DC Jim Leonhard will get more out of the defense than Sean McDermott, but as long as Josh Allen is at quarterback, it’s hard to dislike the Bills whenever their odds are this short to win their division.

Best Sleeper Bet to win the AFC East: Miami Dolphins (+2800)

The Dolphins are priced as if they have zero chance in the AFC East. After recording a winning record every year from 2020 to 2023, they went 8-9 in 2024 and 7-10 last year with Quinn Ewers starting the final three games of the year. New HC Jeff Hafley could give the Dolphins defense a much higher floor in 2026, and their schedule will be more manageable than the Bills or Patriots.

Historical AFC East Trends

• The Bills had won five straight division titles before the 2025 season
• The Patriots have won 18 division titles since the 2000 season
• The Bills or the Patriots have won the AFC East in 23 of the last 25 seasons

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Not every dollar spent in free agency equates to positive expectation for teams in 2026.

So, while it’s easy to just look at which teams spent the most in free agency and presume that at least some of what they added helped their team, let’s take a different approach when trying to evaluate teams that did well in free agency.

Let’s look at the betting markets and see which teams saw their odds to win their division, their conference, or the Super Bowl improve the most.

To do this, let’s look purely at odds movement two days before legal tampering started (Saturday morning) to two days after free agency began (Thursday night) to see which teams saw their odds improve the most.

2026 NFL Odds: Steelers Winners in Free Agency

Surprisingly, the Steelers saw their odds drop across the board in the AFC the most of any mid-tier or better team.

Their average odds to win the AFC North dropped from +650 to +530, and their odds to win the AFC decreased from 33:1 to 30:1.

Pittsburgh would not be the first team I considered at free agency winners, but I love their signing of Jamel Dean and view him as one of the top steals of free agency.

With Dean off the field the last two years, the Bucs defense ranked:

#32 EPA/attempt (+0.18)
#31 success rate (50%)
#31 Y/A (7.9)
#32 quarterback rating (112)

But when Dean was playing for the Bucs, their defense ranked:

#11 EPA/attempt (-0.01)
#14 success rate (46%)
#12 Y/A (7.0)
#10 quarterback rating (89)

In addition to Dean, the Steelers added WR Michael Pittman Jr. via trade and signed RB Rico Dowdle, S Darnell Savage, and S Jaquan Brisker.

Interestingly, the shift in the Steelers' odds was limited to them winning the North and the AFC, but not the Super Bowl.

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2026 NFL Odds: Saints & Panthers Winners in Free Agency

Next up, we have two teams from the NFC South: the Saints and the Panthers.

The Saints moved from +375 to +310 to win the NFC South and from 62:1 to 46:1 to win the NFC.

Additionally, the Saints' Super Bowl odds were slashed from 150:1 to 75:1 at DraftKings, a MASSIVE shift.

The Panthers moved from +460 to +375 to win the NFC South and from 65:1 to 48:1 to win the NFC.

Interestingly, neither move changed the expected finish position for either team in the NFC South.

The Saints are still projected to finish in second place behind the Bucs, and the Panthers are still projected to finish in fourth place behind the Falcons.

Presumably, the signings that moved the needle most in New Orleans were RB Travis Etienne to logically replace Alvin Kamara and LG David Edwards, who will anchor the line in front of QB Tyler Shough.

Kamara gained only 3.6 YPC (#47 of 48 RBs) last season, which was 0.7 rushing yards under expected (#48 of 48 RBs) last year.

Out of 55 RBs with 75+ rushes, Kamara ranked:

#52 in success rate (31%)
#51 in EPA/rush (-0.14)
#51 in YPC (3.6)
#50 in yards after contact/rush (2.6)

This was despite facing some of the lightest boxes of any running back.

28% of his carries came against 8+ man boxes, the #3 lowest rate.

68% came against 7+ man boxes, the #6 lowest rate.

Etienne has his warts (especially in short yardage), but he is an upgrade over an aging Kamara.

In addition, the Saints signed LB Kaden Elliss, TE Noah Fant, and P Ryan Wright.

Overall, the Saints have spent the sixth most of any team in free agency.

The Panthers have spent $165.7M in free agency, fifth most of any team.

They signed 11 players, also the fifth most of any team.

They spent the most on any one player, signing EDGE Jaelan Phillips for $120M over 4 years.

Among all players with at least 200 pass rush snaps last season, Phillips ranked fifth with an 18.8% pressure rate.

That was the best rate of his career, but his 14.6% career pressure rate would have ranked in the top 25 among that same group last season.

Carolina really had only one other player they signed for more than one season, and that was LB Devin Lloyd for $45 million over three seasons.

Their remaining signings were all one-year deals, including players like backup QB Kenny Pickett and C Luke Fortner.

2026 NFL Odds: Raiders Winners in Free Agency

The biggest overall shift for a team not expected to compete this year was with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Though their Super Bowl odds didn’t move meaningfully at all, their odds to win the AFC West dropped from 27:1 to 20:1, and their odds to win the AFC dropped from 100:1 to 71:1.

Only the Titans spent more than the Raiders in free agency, and Las Vegas made the splash move of overpaying to ensure they landed C Tyler Linderbaum from the Ravens.

They made moves to improve their front seven on defense, acquiring EDGE Kwity Paye, LBs Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, and CB Eric Stokes.

They also traded for CB Taron Johnson and signed WR Jalen Nailor.

The Raiders also saw their trade of Maxx Crosby fall through, meaning that instead of losing him to the Ravens, he looks slated to suit up for the Raiders.

That is actually a massive boost and not what the market was expecting, thus a big part of this change.

2026 NFL Free Agency Odds Movement: Top Teams

Let’s next turn our focus to the best teams in each conference to highlight any favorable odds movement.

Among the top-five teams projected to win the NFC (Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, Lions), the only team that became a stronger favorite was the Rams.

The Rams shifted from +420 to +395 on average to win the NFC and from +150 to +140 to win the NFC West.

The biggest moves for the Rams were to beef up their secondary.

They traded with the Chiefs for CB Trent McDuffie and then signed former Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson.

It wasn’t much, but they addressed a clear need with aggression and precision, and the market respected it.

Among the projected top-nine teams in the AFC (Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, and Bengals, in that order), the only team that became a stronger favorite was the Bills.

The Bills shifted from +500 to win the AFC on average to +465, and from -140 to win the AFC East to -152.

Meanwhile, the Patriots shifted from +138 to +157.

Buffalo made a splash by signing EDGE Bradley Chubb to a $43.5M contract for three years.

Buffalo also signed CB Dee Alford from the Falcons, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the Bears, and traded with the Bears for WR D.J. Moore.

Despite the Patriots spending the #4 most money in free agency (significantly more than #21-ranked Buffalo) and signing WR Romeo Doubs, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, and EDGE Dre’Mont Jones, among others, New England saw their odds to win both the AFC East and AFC Conference get worse.

The Chiefs Were Historically Unlucky in 2025

What if I told you the Chiefs had one of the unluckiest seasons in modern NFL history?

Their opponents made 97% of field goals against them last year.

31 of 32 field goals!

The Chiefs'opponent make rate was the #2 highest against any team in well over a decade, with a minimum of at least 30 attempts.

Opposing kickers’ ability to bang through field goals played a large role in sending the Chiefs into a tailspin last season.

They won just one of seven games that were decided by 3 or fewer points last year.

Seven games decided by a field goal.

The Chiefs lost six of them.

And these weren’t just one kick at the end to win it, either.

Six Chiefs Losses Decided by Field Goals

The Broncos went 5 for 5 in field goals, including making a 54-yard field goal to tie the game with 4 minutes to go and then kicking the walkoff game winner to win by 3.

The Raiders went 4 for 4 in field goals, including a 60-yard game-winner with less than 10 seconds left to win by 2.

The Chargers, trailing the entire game, kicked a field goal to tie the game at 13 and then the game-winning field goal with less than a minute left from 49 yards to win by 3.

They went 3 for 3 on the night.

Likewise, the Cowboys went 3 for 3 against the Chiefs and won by 3 points.

The Eagles won by 3 with their kicker going 2 for 2 on field goals over 50 yards, making from 58 and 51 yards.

The Jaguars won by 3 with their kicker going 1 for 1, banging home another field goal longer than 50 yards.

All told, in these 6 losses decided by 3 points or less, Chiefs opponents went 20 for 20, including 9 for 9 on attempts of 49 yards or more and 3 for 3 on attempts of 55 yards or more.

Chiefs 2026 Outlook

There are a lot of things the Chiefs have room to improve upon in 2026.

They had 119 penalties, seventh most in the NFL.

They were one of four teams to not score a single return TD on special teams or defense.

They recovered only four fumbles, second-fewest in the NFL.

They need to improve in these areas, but they should fare better in 2026 simply by pure regression.

One thing that surely will go the Chiefs' way next season is the rate at which opponents make field goals against them.

That alone should turn many of those one-score losses into wins.

Explore Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Odds:

The Chiefs are not favored to win the AFC West for the first time since 2018.

• 2026 AFC West Odds
• 2026 AFC Odds
• Super Bowl 61 Odds