Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive all our 2026 NFL content:

Average draft position (fantasy football ADP) is one of the most important tools in fantasy football.

Not only is it important to know where targeted players are likely to be drafted, but ADP offers a great look at how the field prices each position and player, opening up the opportunity to find value.

Below you will find updated ADP information for best ball formats at Underdog.

Make sure to check out Rich Hribar's 2026 fantasy football rankings as part of our Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

*Underdog Fantasy ADP — Updated April 10
*Previous ADP — March 28

Fantasy Football ADP 2026, Underdog Best Ball, Half-Point PPR:

Biggest Fantasy Football ADP Movers

Kirk Cousins — Rising

There had been consistent buzz out of Las Vegas that the Raiders wanted a veteran for likely No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza to sit behind early in his career.

It appears they found their man, signing Kirk Cousins to what amounts to a one-year contract.

That addition has sent Cousins up fantasy boards, but he likely will end up being a wasted pick.

Even if the Raiders truly want Cousins to start ahead of Mendoza, that would require him to be a starting-quality quarterback.

33 quarterbacks qualified for passer rating last season.

Among that group, Cousins ranked:

• 29th in yards per attempt
• 28th in touchdown rate
• 27th in EPA per dropback
• 26th in success rate

Even if the initial plan is for Cousins to work ahead of Mendoza, the expectation should be for the rookie to start the vast majority, if not every game, in 2026.

Jauan Jennings — Falling

Most of the bigger names left on the free agent market make sense, either because of age, injury, off-field concerns, or some combination of all three.

Jauan Jennings, on the other hand, is reportedly still available because he is asking for too much money.

It makes sense that Jennings wants to cash in following the two most productive seasons of his career, but he took a step back in every efficiency metric with the 49ers last season.

From a fantasy perspective, though, this waiting game could end up working out for Jennings' immediate fantasy value.

Now that he has waited this long, Jennings could be willing to sit out until injury or an unforeseen situation opens up a real opportunity.

There will also be teams that need wide receivers but miss out on the talent they are targeting in the draft, which would open more opportunities for the veteran receiver.

Jennings' draft cost is falling because of uncertainty, which does make sense, but there is an upside case here, assuming the issue is actually asking price and not something to do with how the league views Jennings' talent.

Jordan James — Rising

Jennings' former teammate is going the other way in ADP, with Jordan James rising up the board after Kyle Shanahan said the 49ers want to lighten Christian McCaffrey‘s workload in 2026.

We have heard that song before, but McCaffrey is coming off easily his worst season in terms of rushing efficiency since joining the 49ers.

According to The Athletic's Matt Barrows, Shanahan said James had jumped Isaac Guerendo as a rushing threat behind McCaffrey by the end of last season.

A fifth-round pick last year, James had a lost rookie season, playing just 3 offensive snaps in the regular season, but he did rush 6 times for 28 yards against the Seahawks.

James is clearly in the mix to back up McCaffrey this season, and that role obviously comes with massive contingency value should the power station ever steal CMC away from us.

Troy Franklin & Pat Bryant — Falling

The Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle, which understandably has crushed the fantasy value of both Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant.

Franklin specifically was used in a role last season that seems to be a perfect fit for Waddle.

Over the first 11 weeks of last season, Franklin averaged 14.1 air yards per target, but he saw 21.0% of his targets behind the line of scrimmage, and 50.6% of his targets traveled fewer than 10 yards downfield in the air.

Among the 94 receivers who ran at least 250 routes last season, Franklin had the fifth-highest screen rate per route.

Those routes and opportunities should go Waddle's way this season, and with Courtland Sutton eating up a large chunk of the remaining target pie, there will not be enough room for the tertiary pass catches to return fantasy value.

More fantasy football content:

• Analysis of all the biggest free agency moves
• Winners and losers from 2026 free agency

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie quarterback tiers for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

Now that the Combine has passed, we have a full picture of the athletic data on this incoming quarterback class.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

The quarterback position for fantasy is the one that has the most significant difference in terms of success at the position when compared to “real” football.

Scouting and analyzing how collegiate passers will translate to the NFL has been an ongoing battle that has suffered more losses than wins.

The good news is that we are not selecting these passers with the real-life ramifications that an NFL franchise faces when a player evaluation is missed.

We also have the benefit of knowing which quarterback archetypes can access fantasy upside and adjust accordingly.

This class does not have a wealth of mobility paired with passing production.

With SuperFlex and 2QB formats rising in popularity and adding relevance to the position, the top of the position has become more pertinent in Dynasty Rookie Drafts.

That boosts the quarterbacks who could have floor capability.

However, that later bucket of passers who rely solely on passing production to create fantasy points has minimal value.

It is mainly replaceable in formats requiring you to start one player at the position.

While the position continues to grow, until formats that allow multiple starting quarterbacks to become the industry standard, the quarterback position remains a supply-and-demand game that favors suppressing incoming rookies, since so many fantasy leagues still start one quarterback.

This quarterback class continues a soft runout for quarterback prospects.

The 2024 draft class had six quarterbacks selected in the opening 12 picks, but it has been the standout over recent seasons.

In 2025, we had two first-round quarterbacks.

In 2023, we had three.

In 2022, only one quarterback was selected in the first 70 picks, and he (Kenny Pickett) was selected 20th overall.

This class has only one quarterback locked into front-end draft capital.

This quarterback group is marked by one primary asset that we know will be the first selection of the draft, and then several question marks.

Jump To:

• Tier 1 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Tier 2 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Tier 3 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Tier 4 Rookie Quarterbacks
• Fantasy Football Rankings

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Tier 1 Rookie Quarterbacks

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Rookie Age*: 22.9

*Age on 9/1/26

The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner is where this draft will kick off.

Mendoza transferred to Indiana after two seasons at Cal, where he and the team reeled off a 16-0 season and a National Championship.

After throwing 30 passing touchdowns over his two seasons at Cal, Mendoza threw 41 passing touchdowns last season.

The former 3-star recruit improved his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt average in all three seasons in college.

His final season completion percentage (72%) ranks 94th percentile, while his touchdown to interception rate (41 to 6) ranks 92nd percentile, and his 9.3 yards per pass attempt sits 84th percentile among all prospects since 2000.

Mendoza’s calling cards are that he has prototypical size (6-foot-5 and 236 pounds) and plays on schedule with accuracy.

A class-high 79% of his throws were on target in 2025.

The seasoning for Mendoza is that he played his best in high-leverage situations.

On 139 career dropbacks in the red zone, Mendoza threw only 1 interception while taking 7 sacks.

This past season at Indiana, Mendoza took 69 dropbacks in the red zone, throwing 26 passing touchdowns with 0 interceptions and taking 2 sacks.

On third and fourth downs, Mendoza had a class-high 75.3% on-target throw rate and a class-high 14.7% touchdown rate.

Mendoza was ripping the ball downfield in those spots, too, averaging 10.9 yards per throw downfield on third and fourth downs, which was second in this class.

The nits to pick with Mendoza entering the NFL are how he will perform in a more challenging environment and how he will adapt his game to the current NFL.

There will be some who ask about how his offensive environment at the college level was perfectly in tune with his strengths.

Mendoza had the lowest drop rate in this class (2.2%).

Mendoza benefited from a heavy RPO offense predicated on a high rate of throws outside the numbers and into traffic.

23.4% of his dropbacks and 25.4% of his pass attempts last season were on RPO calls, by far the highest rates of this class.

The next-closest quarterback in both departments was Mark Gronowski of Iowa, who had a 16.3% RPO dropback rate and 16.4% of his pass attempts on those play calls.

Mendoza only threw 55.2% of his passes over the middle of the field (12th in this class).

If you look at the current state of the NFL, we have seen a spike in more condensed formations and a continued spike in playing under center, turning your back to the defense, and using traditional play action.

That has increased relevancy, knowing that we have close to 100% certainty that Mendoza will be selected first overall by the Raiders, who just hired Klint Kubiak as their head coach.

In the past two seasons with the Seahawks and Saints, Kubiak’s passers have had under-center rates of 54.8% (2nd in the league) and 42.5% (5th).

Over his three collegiate seasons, Mendoza has had only six dropbacks under center.

While that does take a step of faith in transitioning to the NFL, Kubiak has elevated both Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, prospects who offer a manageable bar of expectations.

Despite playing in a heavy RPO scheme, Mendoza did make big-time throws.

Only 13.9% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (3rd-lowest rate in the class).

Only 14.4% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield (10th), but he had the highest on-target throw rate (54.5%) on those passes.

Even if you are factoring in that his infrastructure of systems and surrounding talent accentuated those characteristics, Mendoza did everything he was asked to a high degree.

Mendoza was also battle-tested due to his conference and postseason run.

On 303 dropbacks against Power Conference opponents, Mendoza led this class in completion rate (71.9%), yards per pass attempt (9.3), and touchdown rate (10.6%).

He had five games against top 10 defenses last season (Oregon twice, Iowa, Ohio State, and Miami).

Ohio State and Miami did make Mendoza work in both games, but overall, he completed 65.3% of his passes for 8.3 Y/A with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

That quality schedule did give us a sample of Mendoza playing under pressure, which showcased some of the limitations we could see at the next level when the pass rush ramps up.

Under pressure against Ohio State and Miami, Mendoza was 9 of 16 (56.3%) for 93 yards (5.8 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns.

Kept clean in those games, he was 22 of 34 (64.7%) for 316 yards (9.3 Y/A).

At the end of the day, we are fully aware that Mendoza can have a high floor.

The questions (particularly for fantasy) are about his ceiling.

Mendoza has the profile as a weekly QB2 for fantasy who can moonlight as a QB1 during spike weeks and finish as a back-end QB1 in cumulative scoring.

From a modeling perspective, the closest comparison for Mendoza that I have is Sam Bradford.

The one thing Mendoza does have in his back pocket compared to the QB2 pocket passer group for fantasy is that he is not a complete zero in the running game.

Mendoza is not a run-first passer, but he is the 53rd percentile in career rushing output.

He had a 7.7% scramble rate last season, which was seventh in this class.

I don’t believe Mendoza has the full creativity of a Brock Purdy when things are out of structure, but the top-down fantasy archetype for him is in the same ballpark as Purdy.

2026 Tier 2 Rookie Quarterbacks

After Mendoza, we have a huge fall off at the position, with no guarantee that we see another passer taken in the first round.

Tier 2 is filled with question marks, but this group will largely be selected at worst on Day 2 of the draft based on the potential upside.

At one point in their college careers, all of these passers were considered locks for the first round.

We should see all of these players given a chance to compete for opportunities early in their careers, based on that, even if they all take a significant step of faith in being reliable starters.

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Rookie Age: 23.7

Simpson is the one player here still generating first-round buzz based on that stellar start to 2025.

We have had a strong indication throughout the early process that he will be the QB2 from this class, which keeps him ahead of the others in the tier since he has the best odds of starting out of the package, whether that is right or wrong.

Simpson is a former 5-star recruit who bided his time at Alabama, finally given a chance to start this season after Jalen Milroe left.

Simpson’s season could not have started any better.

Over the front half of the college football season, he was considered a contender for QB1 in this draft class and was adjacent to or ahead of Mendoza for some in terms of being the top quarterback in this class.

Whereas Mendoza closed the season strongly against high-end competition, Simpson dropped off.

Through the opening eight games last season, Simpson had completed 67.8% of his passes for 8.4 yards per pass attempt with 20 touchdowns to just 1 interception.

He threw multiple passing touchdowns in all eight games.

Then over the final seven games, Simpson completed 60.3% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, throwing 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.

He threw 1 or fewer touchdown passes in five of those seven games.

Simpson dealt with a plethora of ailments as the season wore on.

He had a back injury at the end of October, elbow bursitis for the final three weeks, and then suffered a fractured rib in the Rose Bowl to close his season.

Simpson had gastritis that needed medication, which led to a rumored 20-pound weight loss during the season.

The Alabama run game was non-existent this past season, and Ryan Williams took a massive step back from his 2024 output.

There is no shortage of excuses for Simpson’s regression, but what we are left with is still a huge question mark.

He is entering the league as an older, inexperienced player with no full season in college of sustained production that warrants the use of high draft capital.

If he does end up in Round 1, he will have one of the lightest resumes of any Day 1 selection with only 523 career pass attempts.

Just six quarterbacks in the 2000s have been selected in the first round with fewer pass attempts:

• Trey Lance (288)
• Cam Newton (292)
• Michael Vick (343)
• Anthony Richardson (393)
• Mark Sanchez (487)
• Kyler Murray (519)

Nearly all of those quarterbacks had their low passing volume impacted by elite rushing ability.

Sanchez is arguably the closest resemblance to Simpson’s trajectory.

There have been another six quarterbacks selected in the first round with fewer than 600 career attempts:

• Mac Jones (556)
• Akili Smith (571)
• Mitch Trubisky (572)
• Carson Wentz (583)
• Alex Smith (587)
• Dwayne Haskins (590)

Combining all of those quarterbacks, we are not working with a high-end hit rate.

That is especially true when removing rushing upside, something we are not counting on from Simpson, who is a traditional dropback passer.

That limited sample gives us a mixed bag with Simpson as a passer as well.

Simpson did have 440 dropbacks against Power Conference competition (second in this class in 2025), but his 71.7% on-target rate in those games ranked 11th in this class, while his 7.3 yards per pass attempt average ranked 12th.

Simpson was blitzed on 44.4% of his dropbacks last year, the second-highest rate in the class.

On those blitzes, he averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, which was 12th out of the 16 quarterbacks invited to the NFL Combine.

Under pressure, Simpson posted 5.9 yards per pass attempt, which was 10th.

Removing screens. Simpson’s 7.6 yards per pass attempt ranked 12th.

Further complicating Simpson’s projection is that he lacks elite traits.

At 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds, he lacks prototypical size.

That is not a death knell, but almost every comparable first-round pick who has succeeded in that range of size has possessed mobility and out-of-the-structure creation as a cornerstone to their game.

The most recent example is Caleb Williams (6-foot-1 and 214 pounds), who has struggled in the traditional dropback game aspect through his first two seasons but has tremendous out-of-structure ability.

While Simpson’s overall sample size is small, he was asked to do more translational work on how offenses play in the NFL.

Only 6.5% of his dropbacks were RPO play calls, while he had the most dropbacks under center (48) of this class.

Simpson also had 8.9% of his passes dropped last season, which was the second-highest of this class.

Drew Allar, Penn State

Rookie Age: 22.5

Allar is arguably the most polarizing prospect in this draft class, or at least the most volatile.

He has all the physical traits that the league looks for.

At 6-foot-5 and 228 pounds, Allar has a big arm with experience.

He is also the youngest quarterback in this draft class.

The rub is that he lacks consistency overall while playing at his worst when games were sped up against front-end competition.

Allar had an incomplete 2025 season, appearing in just six games due to a season-ending ankle injury.

Penn State did not do him many favors based on scheduling before his injury.

They opened the year facing four bottom-rung opponents in Allar’s five complete games.

He only had 71 attempts against Power Conference opponents.

Despite the lack of strong competition while on the field, Allar only threw for 6.9 yards per pass attempt (13th in this class).

He completed a class-low 50% of his passes on third and fourth downs.

From a career perspective, Allar threw 4.7 touchdown passes to every interception for his career, which is 92nd percentile.

Unfortunately, his 63.2% career completion rate ranks in the 52nd percentile, while his 7.4 yards per pass attempt ranks in the 27th percentile.

Big spots are where we lacked a spark from Allar.

In the 2024 postseason run, Allar completed just 51.7% of his passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt over those four games.

In two career starts against Ohio State, Allar was 30 of 62 (48.4%) for 337 yards (5.4 Y/A).

In their 2023 Bowl Game against Ole Miss, Allar completed 48.7% of his passes, although he did have a pair of touchdowns.

His athleticism and arm talent are not in question, but all of that makes Allar a bet on the traits and cache he was a 5-star recruit entering school.

His size, age, and athletic upside will surely be alluring to an organization that believes he was mismanaged during his development, a common criticism.

Allar also has some athleticism to go with his size.

He rushed for 16.3 yards per game with 12 touchdowns over his career.

His 10.8% scramble rate last season was third in this class.

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Rookie Age: 24.6

After a breakout season in 2024, throwing 29 touchdowns and for 311.7 yards per game, Nussmeier took a step back last season, throwing just 12 touchdowns while averaging 214.1 yards per game over his nine games played.

As a common thread so far in this group, Nussmeier’s 2025 campaign was affected and ultimately cut short by an abdominal injury.

Nussmeier stated at the NFL Combine that the injury occurred in the preseason during fall camp and impacted his ability to push the ball downfield.

That shows up noticeably in his splits from his sample this season and a year ago.

On top of the limitations that he faced while throwing the football, 8.5% of Nussmeier’s passes were dropped last season after a 6.4% rate in 2024.

LSU also lost four offensive linemen from 2024 to the NFL draft, which impacted play up front.

That compounded any restrictions he faced when throwing downfield, paired with a spike in drops.

That opened the door for some poor play on his own end.

He took a sack on 19% of his pressures this past season after a 9.8% rate in 2024.

Balancing out the playing with more surrounding NFL talent on offense in 2024 (starting tight end Mason Taylor also left via the draft) and how much of his 2025 regression was due solely to his injuries is a tough ask.

To compound matters, similar to Simpson, Nussmeier is an undersized pocket passer.

Nussmeier is 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds.

He does have impressive arm talent for his size, but also comes with a 30th-percentile career touchdown-to-interception rate (2.2:1).

We can take his 7.5 yards per pass attempt with a grain of salt, but it is also in the 30th percentile.

There is next to zero rushing component to Nussmeier’s game to offset any potential limitations as a passer.

His career rushing production ranks in the 12th percentile, and he has the lowest scramble rate in this draft class (2.3%).

He is the son of Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier.

His background as the son of an NFL coach will surely carry some bonus points for organizations, but Nussmeier is another volatile prospect who needs development at the next level.

With a worse rushing profile than both Allar and Simpson, while being older than both, Nussmeier makes for a thinner bet for fantasy purposes.

Cade Klubnik, Clemson

Rookie Age: 22.9

Klubnik is another quarterback here who was coming off a strong 2024 season, but lost ground after a rocky 2025 season.

After 36 passing touchdowns to 6 interceptions in 2024, Klubnik tossed 16 touchdowns with 6 interceptions last season at Clemson.

Looking under the hood at both seasons (and his 2023 season), Klubnik appears to have just run hot in the touchdown department in 2024, and that was the outlier.

His completion rate, depth of target, and yards per pass attempt were all in a similar line this season, but he went from a 7.4% touchdown rate in 2024 to 4.1% this past season.

Klubnik is another quarterback who is on the smaller end (6-foot-2 and 207 pounds), but he is young, experienced, and has more athleticism to avoid sacks and create rushing lanes.

He has the most pass attempts from this draft class while being the second-youngest passer available.

Klubnik was pressured at the third-highest rate of his draft class (34.3%) but was second in sack rate on those pressures (11.6%).

Klubnik has a 63rd-percentile rushing profile, which ranks sixth in this class.

He also had the third-best big-time throw rate when pressured (7.6%).

8.5% of his passes were also dropped, the third-highest rate of this class.

Klubnik shows the upside plays, but it is the down-to-down consistency and winning in high-leverage spots that he has to iron out to develop into a multi-year starter over being a career backup.

His career rate of 7.1 yards per pass attempt ranks 13th percentile.

His 3.0 touchdown-to-interception rate is at the 66th percentile but is heavily influenced by his unsustainable efficiency in 2024.

After a class-high 10.3% touchdown rate on third downs last season, he had a class-low 1% rate this season.

After a class-high 23.8% touchdown rate in the red zone in 2024, he was at 11.1% this season.

Carson Beck, Miami

Rookie Age: 23.8

Beck has the physical profile (6-foot-5 and 233 pounds) and experience as a three-year starter, which are going to keep the lights on for him in April to be selected in a spot with the potential to play sooner than later.

Beck has made a class-high 55 appearances over six seasons.

His first year as a starter was his best, which makes him tougher to gauge.

As a 21-year-old starter in 2023, Beck completed 72.4% of his passes for 9.5 yards per pass attempt.

A UCL injury marred his 2024 season.

He threw for more touchdowns (28) than he did in 2023 (24), but took efficiency hits in every other area.

This past season with Miami, Beck got back on track by matching his career-best 72.4% completion rate with 30 touchdowns.

For his career, his 69.5% completion rate is 96th percentile, while his 8.4 yards per pass attempt is 75th percentile.

Some handholding aided that production.

25.2% of Beck’s passes at Miami were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which was the second-highest rate of this class.

24.9% of his passes were screens, the highest rate of this class.

Beck also threw a class-high 13 touchdowns on throws of 20 or more yards downfield last season, but when he was pushing the ball, he was more prone to turnovers.

Beck threw 12 interceptions in each of his final two seasons.

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Tier 3 Rookie Quarterbacks

After the questionable Tier 2 grouping, we have a short tier of players who are more “fun” from the range of quarterbacks who are longer shots to be sustainable NFL starters.

This two-person tier features players with greater fantasy appeal through their legs.

Even if passing limitations cap their long-term ability to start games, when they do find the field, they are at least capable of producing points via rushing.

Taylen Green, Arkansas

Rookie Age: 23.9

Green is the definitive throwback “Konami” quarterback of this draft class.

He has a rare athletic profile (6-foot-6 and 227 pounds) and came away from the NFL Combine by registering a 99th-percentile physical profile grade on my end by running a 4.37 40-yard dash with a 43.5-inch vertical.

Those were both records for the position at face value, without any adjustments for size.

Green backed that up on the field with an 89th percentile rushing profile, rushing for 45.4 yards per game over his career to go along with 35 rushing scores.

One thing we always talk about with mobile passers is that it matters in a vacuum when you are starting NFL games, but if you are going to continue to start NFL games, you have to be an effective passer and win from the pocket.

That is where all of the questions come from for Green.

His final season yards per pass attempt average (8.3) is 56th percentile, but the 1.7 touchdown-to-interception rate is 14th percentile, while his 60.7% completion rate is 27th percentile.

Green had the highest turnover-worthy throw rate (5.3%) in this class.

When pressured, Green was highly ineffective as a passer.

Under pressure, he completed a class-low 36.8% of his passes for 4.9 yards per attempt (second to last) and a class-worst 7.8% turnover-worth play rate.

22.7% of Green’s pressures were credited as his own doing, which was the second-highest rate in the class.

On the surface, Green looks like a discounted version of Anthony Richardson.

He will be drafted based on his athletic traits, but he will not carry nearly the same draft investment as Richardson.

On the one hand, that can allow Green to develop more at the next level, rather than being thrown into the deep end and having his passing shortcomings exposed early on.

In SuperFlex formats, Green is going to offer more upside for investment than just about any other pick outside of the first round of those rookie drafts.

On the other hand, that adds some volatility to when Green does start in the NFL, while prospects with this poor level of passing measurables rarely turn things around at the next level.

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

Rookie Age: 24.5

Pavia has one of the most complete profiles of the dual-threat passers in this draft.

Pavia has four seasons of experience between New Mexico State and Vanderbilt.

He is coming off his best passing season, completing 70.6% of his passes (89th percentile) for 9.4 yards per pass attempt (86th percentile) with 29 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

Pavia also rushed for 862 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The question marks for Pavia arise from being a much older prospect and having his best passing season at an older point in his career.

Before 2025, he had not completed more than 60.4% of his passes in a season with a high mark of 8.1 yards per pass attempt.

He can create with his legs, but his shorter size (5-foot-10) does emphasize having cleaner pockets to work from, something that is harder to bank on in the NFL.

This shows up in his profile, even in his best collegiate season.

Pavia averaged a class-high 10.7 yards per pass attempt from a clean pocket this season, but 5.5 Y/A when pressured (13th).

It is rare to see a quarterback of his size win as a passer in the NFL, especially given the current defensive meta, which forces passers to win consistently in the middle of the field.

Whenever Pavia does find the field, however, he will use his legs via designed runs or scrambling.

He has a 92nd-percentile career rushing profile, rushing for 3,094 yards and 31 touchdowns over his college career.

Pavia scrambled on 11.2% of his dropbacks in 2025, the second-highest rate in this class.

2026 Tier 4 Rookie Quarterbacks

• Cole Payton, North Dakota State, Rookie Age: 23.8
• Haynes King, Georgia Tech, Rookie Age: 23.9
• Joey Aguilar, Tennessee, Rookie Age: 25.2
• Joe Fagnano, Connecticut, Rookie Age: 26.4
• Behren Morton, Texas Tech, Rookie Age: 23.9
• Luke Altmyer, Illinois, Rookie Age: 23.9
• Sawyer Robertson, Baylor, Rookie Age: 23.6
• Jalon Daniels, Kansas, Rookie Age: 23.8

We are into the back end of the position.

No one here is expected to be drafted until Day 3 of the NFL Draft, which makes them extremely tough bets in rookie drafts.

There will be players here who will inevitably start games, but we are not projected as sustainable starters in this range.

Cole Payton is the longer shot in having solid draft investment, but he has the requisite size (6-foot-3 and 232 pounds) and combination of passing and rushing output to keep the lights on if he does find his way on a roster where he can compete for playing time at some point.

Payton has 31 career rushing touchdowns and led this class with an 18% scramble rate in 2025.

The rub is that he only has one season as a starter at a small school, playing in a system designed to elevate his passing production.

Playing in a system designed for Payton to use his legs and take shots downfield, Payton averaged a gaudy class-high 12.3 yards per pass attempt.

Payton averaged 3.33 seconds from snap to throw, the highest of this class.

That is just not a sustainable approach to what he will be asked to do in the NFL.

Haynes King has a stellar rushing profile, but he needs significant development playing in NFL offenses.

King rushed for 37 touchdowns at Georgia Tech, with double-digit scores in each of the past three seasons.

In a run-first scheme, he was just not asked to do a lot as a passer.

King averaged 7.5 air yards per throw (2nd lowest in the class).

He threw a class-high 25.5% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

When blitzed, King averaged a class-low 6.5 yards per pass attempt.

In the red zone, King has a class-low completion rate of 41.3%.

Could Joe Fagnano be this year’s Tyler Shough?

Fagnano is a rare seven-year player who will be 26 years old as a rookie.

Fagnano threw 28 touchdowns to only 1 interception this past season at UConn, giving him 48 touchdowns to 5 interceptions over the past two seasons.

Despite playing in seven seasons, Fagnano only logged 25 career starts during his time at Maine and UConn.

Shough was taken at pick 40.

Unlike Shough, Fagnano is carrying next to no draft buzz or physical traits pushing his stock, giving him little runway for forced playing time.

Jalon Daniels averaged a class-low 4.8 yards per pass attempt under pressure and a class-high 12.9% interception rate in the red zone.

2026 Rookie Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie running back tiers for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

Now that the Combine has passed, we have a full picture of the athletic data on this incoming running back class.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

We will add notes on those prospects as we receive additional athletic testing data from Pro Days.

However, athletic testing has a low correlation to actual fantasy output.

When it does, it is typically counted twice for a productive player.

But when a prospect has subpar athletic testing paired with a limited or nonexistent production resume, we are playing with fire when attempting to elevate or count on that player for NFL production.

Nothing matters more to the position than invested draft capital for running backs.

Over the past decade, fantasy production in year one through year three has had a 32% correlation with draft capital alone.

Post-draft, we’ll have the added influence of draft investment and landing spot to add to the layout, but opportunity is the name of the game for the running back position.

If you can find the field and accrue touches, that’s the starting block we care about.

Because of that, I have the least conviction in my priors heading into the NFL at the running back position.

If a back gets tangible volume, he is relevant at the position.

That will be particularly relevant for this class, which has one clear-cut draft pick at the top and then a guessing game about how the order of the remaining backs comes off the board.

This class is particularly one in which I would not get hung up on individual player ranking.

Jump To:

• Tier 1 Rookie Running Backs
• Tier 2 Rookie Running Backs
• Tier 3 Rookie Running Backs
• Tier 4 Rookie Running Backs
• Fantasy Football Rankings

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Tier 1 Rookie Running Backs

Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

Rookie Age*: 21.3

*Age on 9/1/26

As a 19-year-old sophomore in 2024, Love was given the keys to the Notre Dame backfield, and he delivered on all of the expectations as the top running back recruit entering college.

That season, Love turned 191 touches into 1,362 total yards (7.1 yards per touch) and 19 touchdowns.

Following that breakout, Love came back this past season at age 20 and produced 1,652 yards and 21 scores on 226 touches (7.3 yards per touch).

He rushed for 6.9 yards per carry in each of his two seasons as the lead back.

Love led this running back class with 4.2 yards after contact per rush.

This past season, Love did that with only 35.2% of his rushes coming against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), the lowest rate in the class.

When Love faced those light boxes, he punished them with a gaudy 9.1 yards per attempt.

That led the country this past season.

For some added context, going back to the last decade of early-round running backs, Love’s 9.1 YPC against light boxes is by far the highest in his final season.

Ashton Jeanty posted 8.0 YPC against light boxes in his final season, which was the most by a first-round running back over the past decade.

Love cleared him by over a full yard on those attempts.

Of course, Love may not get to see many light box runs in the NFL.

25.1% of Love’s runs came against heavy boxes (2nd highest in this class) since everyone knew he was getting the ball.

Against those loaded boxes, Love posted 5.0 YPC, which was second in this class.

When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Love averaged 2.5 yards per carry (2nd) and forced a missed tackle on 32.5% of those runs, the highest rate in the class.

When Love gets into space, he is electric.

He averaged a robust 10.0 yards per rush when he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage.

Not only did that lead all running backs in this class, but that was also the highest yards per rush on runs hit beyond the line of scrimmage for a back with 100-plus attempts over the past 10 years.

I do not believe Love is as good a pass catcher right now as Reggie Bush or Jahmyr Gibbs were entering the NFL (players whom Love is frequently compared to), but he has a solid foundation in that area to build on as he enters the league.

Love caught 28 and 27 passes in each of his two seasons as the starter.

In 2025, Love was targeted on 22.2% of his routes (2nd in the class) and posted 1.83 yards per route run (3rd).

Love also finished with the fifth-highest grade in pass protection in this class per Pro Football Focus in 2025.

Apply any grains of salt you have to, but Love is a willing player in protection.

We did not see Love do much at the NFL Combine, but he did run a 4.36 40-yard dash at 6-foot, 212 pounds.

That 96th-percentile speed score was more than he needed to cement himself as the premier back in this draft class.

No prospect is guaranteed to succeed in the NFL, but Love truly checks every box.

He is young, athletic, and hyper productive.

In a class without much front-end talent, not only at the offensive skill positions, Love also stands out even greater among his peers in this class.

He is a complete player who can be inserted into an offense tomorrow as a foundational component.

If there is anything to really try and tear down with Love, he has a leaner build and has not yet handled a massive workload.

Low tread on the tires could also be another feature for him, but he has not had to shoulder a high workload to the degree of other front-end prospects.

2026 Tier 2 Rookie Running Backs

This is a year when the RB2 in this class could be one of several players.

I even go back and forth on who the RB2 is when ordering these players linearly, which is where the tiers come in.

Regardless of which running back you prefer as RB2 in this class, the secondary group of backs in this class should not be compared to Love or vaulted up rookie boards solely because they are the next in line.

Nobody here is a clean prospect, or we would not be talking about the chasm in projected draft capital expected to be invested in this group after Love.

The gap between where that second running back is selected compared to Love could be 50-plus picks.

We all have red on our dynasty ledgers when it comes to elevating the next wave of running backs up in rookie drafts.

Just this past season, we saw Kaleb Johnson being selected as the RB3 or RB4 in rookie drafts at the end of the first round.

The year before that, Trey Benson found his way into the first round of rookie drafts.

That is a reminder to tread lightly with this group, even if they do end up in a situation where things look favorable for their immediate path to touches.

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie wide receiver tiers for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

Now that the Combine has passed, we have a full picture of the athletic data on this incoming wide receiver class.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

We will add notes on those prospects as we receive additional athletic testing data from Pro Days.

However, athletic testing has a low correlation to actual fantasy output.

When it does, it is typically counted twice for a productive player.

But when a prospect has subpar athletic testing paired with a limited or nonexistent production resume, we are playing with fire when attempting to elevate or count on that player for NFL production.

Setting up more of the process here, although I do prospect models for each skill position and will share the ranks for the players in those models, my ranks do not strictly follow my prospect models linearly.

I use prospect models similarly to how I use projection models for the NFL season.

We are looking for immediate market inefficiencies in leagues where we draft rookies before the NFL draft.

This class is not as objectively strong as previous seasons.

It is more built around specific archetypes that need proper development entering the NFL rather than a blue-chip alpha at the top, in the fashion of, say, Ja’Marr Chase.

That is not to say there are no intriguing options, but this class is one of the more wide-open classes I have covered.

Jump To:

• Tier 1 Rookie Wide Receivers
• Tier 2 Rookie Wide Receivers
• Tier 3 Rookie Wide Receivers
• Tier 4 Rookie Wide Receivers
• Tier 5 & 6 Rookie Wide Receivers
• Fantasy Football Rankings

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Tier 1 Rookie Wide Receivers

We will shake things up along the way, but these are the three wideouts you will see at the top of most rankings heading into the draft.

This is a tightly packed group that could see some oscillation after the draft, depending on how things play out.

This year, the landing spots in the top half of the first round are not as wide open for target volume as we usually see in that area.

There is always long-term fluidity to the situation a player finds himself in, but the teams picking in the front half this April who have immediate openings for a contending lead target are the Titans, Browns, and Dolphins.

All of those teams have short-term concerns for the quality of offensive environments.

The Giants, Jets, Saints, and Ravens are in the mix to select a receiver, but all of those teams already have young WR1 options in place.

These guys would have trouble leapfrogging those receivers on their rookie deals as a premier target.

The Commanders and Chiefs are the most appealing spots.

Washington has a quarterback in place and does not have much right now aside from Terry McLaurin, who will be 31 this year.

Washington also has an out on his contract after this season if they choose to exercise it.

The Chiefs will have to decide on Rashee Rice long term, who is in the final season of his rookie contract.

Given his recent offseasons, it is hard to see them throwing a big contract in his direction.

The Rams at pick 13 are another appealing option.

Puka Nacua is set for a big payday, but this is one of the destinations where you would not be overly mad at having the No. 2 option, big picture, with Davante Adams set to be a free agent after the season.

Makai Lemon, USC

Rookie Age*: 22.2

*Age on 9/1/26

Starting with the 2025 Biletnikoff Award winner.

Following a 2024 breakout at age 20, where he posted 3.03 yards per route run playing alongside Ja’Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch, Lemon snagged 79 receptions for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns this past season.

In 2025, Lemon was targeted on 29.3% of his routes (7th in this class) with 3.13 yards per route run (2nd).

He is one of only two wideouts in this class to average over 3.0 yards per route run against both man coverage (3.29) and zone coverage (3.09).

He produced a first down or touchdown on 13.6% of his routes (3rd) while posting 2.75 yards per team pass attempt (2nd).

Lemon is a plug-and-play producer who can win on all three levels.

He was excellent after the catch, forcing a missed tackle on 26.6% of his receptions (8th).

Lemon averaged 6.4 yards after catch per reception, which was the third-highest among receivers in this class with an average depth of target over 10.0 yards downfield.

USC did get him the ball in the screen game (21.3% of his targets), but Lemon also pulled in 64% of his targets on throws 20-plus yards downfield (16 of 25), which was fourth in this class.

He led this draft class in receptions on throws of 20 or more yards downfield.

Lemon dabbled a little bit early on as a cornerback, which shows up in his understanding of spacing in zone coverage and in his release package at the line of scrimmage.

If there are any nits to pick with Lemon on the field, it is that he has not logged a significant amount of time playing outside in college and is not built like a prototypical lead wideout in the traditional sense.

Lemon ran 70.7% of his routes from the slot last season (8th in this class), where he caught 52 passes for 791 yards and 7 touchdowns.

At 5-foot-11 and 192 pounds, Lemon has 30.5-inch arms (12th percentile) and 8.75-inch hands (6th percentile).

That was not an issue for him when he was forced to win the contested catch game, however.

He attacks the football and has won in his sample of contested targets.

His 2.2% career drop rate is the second-best in this class.

Lemon won 10 of his 15 contested catch opportunities (tied for 4th in this class).

He also converted 58.3% of his targets in the red zone (7 of 12) for scores, which was second in the class.

While Lemon is not built in the mold of Calvin Johnson, I would argue he is entering the NFL at a time when his archetype is more relevant than ever.

The current landscape for wideouts winning as a high-end target earning WR1 in today’s NFL is about versatility: being able to win at the full route tree, play inside and out, finding space against all of the disguised coverages shaping the defensive meta, and creating after the catch.

We are no longer in an NFL where the alpha X receiver is dominating targets and stacking the most fantasy points.

That was the case again in 2025.

The top-12 scorers at the position in points per game last season were Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith–Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb.

Pickens, Adams, Collins, and Brown are the only players among that group who are traditional X options.

The rest of those guys all move around and win in space.

The past seven receivers to lead the position in fantasy points per game have been Nacua, Chase, Lamb, Cooper Kupp (twice), Adams, and Michael Thomas.

That followed a dominant stretch from Antonio Brown.

We would love to have it all (Jeremiah Smith is on his way, gamers), but you no longer have to be Megatron or Julio Jones to be elite in our game.

Lemon may take a step of faith in projection winning outside because he was so dominant from the slot, but when tasked to do so, he posted 3.37 yards per route run as an outside receiver as well.

Lemon’s most popular comparables are St. Brown and Nacua.

Those two players were selected on Day 3 of the NFL Draft and were the best value picks of their positions in recent memory.

Lemon is going to be a front-end pick.

Coming off a massive season by Smith-Njigba is relevant here because JSN is the closest recent comparable to Lemon when factoring in draft capital.

Smith-Njigba had nearly identical measurables at the NFL Combine (6-foot-1 and 196 pounds, with 30.5-inch arms and 9-inch hands).

Like Lemon, Smith-Njigba was deployed as a primary slot receiver in college.

That did roadblock him, to a degree, for fantasy purposes in opening his career.

Smith-Njigba was drafted to a team with established target earners in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Playing 67.6% and 77.4% of his snaps from the slot limited him in his first two seasons in the league when all three receivers were available.

But when given the runway to play as the feature WR1 in the offense, finally, Smith-Njigba flourished this past season.

Lemon may not have the same gaudy runout as Smith-Njigba, but he has the baseline for the type of receiver who has excelled for fantasy purposes.

Smith-Njigba’s recent success (and the undervalued nature of St. Brown and Nacua) will surely push Lemon’s draft stock in a weaker class.

That tale about Smith-Njigba is one to keep in mind if Lemon is drafted early, attached to an established target earner, and used primarily as a slot out of the package.

I doubt we are going to see Lemon completely flip to an exterior role to the same degree in year one, but Emeka Egbuka also had a higher slot rate in college than Lemon did as a first-round pick, and then just played 70% of his snaps out wide as a rookie, catching 63 passes for 938 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

Rookie Age: 22.1

Tyson has one of the best production resumes in this class.

Over four seasons at Colorado and Arizona State, Tyson has averaged 4.8 receptions (6th in this class) for 69.2 yards per game (4th) and 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game (3rd).

When Tyson was on the field in college (more on this later), he was the most dominant player in this class, accounting for 46.7% of Arizona State’s receiving yardage and 64.7% of their receiving scores.

This past season, Tyson was targeted on 32.3% of his routes (2nd).

He was in the slot for 24% of his routes, where he gobbled up target opportunities, drawing a target on 37.5% of his routes.

Tyson tends to freelance more of his routes from this group in a Stevie Johnson (or Jerry Jeudy) fashion, if we’re being negative, which can be as much a positive as a negative depending on his system in the NFL.

One reason Tyson takes some liberties with routes is that he is one of the best receivers in this class at understanding leverage and getting open against man coverage.

While that was a staple of Tyson’s game in college against man coverage, his success versus zone coverage was more of a mixed bag, something he will see a lot more of in the NFL.

Tyson posted 3.02 yards per route against man coverage with a target on a class-high 43.6% of his routes.

Against zone coverages, he posted 2.18 yards per route run with a target on 27.2% of his routes.

Those are still good rates against zone coverage, and he regularly gets open against zone.

Still, it is telling in the disparity just how much some of the liberties he takes in route running can raise the ceiling while running himself into a few more outs when navigating complex coverages, since you need the quarterback to see things the same way.

That can impact him depending on what type of quarterback he plays with in the NFL.

If Tyson is playing with a quarterback who expects you to be on time and running a 12-yard out at 12 yards, then that can get him into trouble.

But if he is playing with a quarterback who sees things the same way he does, he can thrive.

This recently came up with Josh Allen in commentary following the trade for D.J. Moore.

One area where Tyson needs to grow to the next level is with the ball.

For as good as he is at getting open in space, that did not translate with the football in his hands.

He has only averaged 5.1 yards after the catch for his career.

That is the 20th percentile for prospects since 2015.

In 2025, Tyson had a lower rate of missed tackles per reception (9.8%) than lid lifters such as Carnell Tate and Denzel Boston while averaging 3.0 fewer air yards per target than those guys.

When on the field, Tyson has the strongest full-field profile and route versatility of this trio.

He has reps at all three receiver positions, has manufactured production, and wins in every area.

The rub is that he has to stay on the field.

Tyson has missed time in every season and has missed a third of his available games due to injuries.

In 2022 with Colorado, he tore his ACL, MCL, and PCL.

That caused him to miss the remainder of that season and limited his 2023 season to only three games.

In 2024, he fractured his collarbone.

This past season, he missed three games due to a hamstring injury.

That prevented him from participating in NFL Combine testing outside the bench press.

Training for the Combine and focusing on sprinting drills could have aggravated that injury, but that initial injury was nearly four months ago.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba sat out nearly his entire final college season with a hamstring injury and then did not run at the Combine, but he alleviated any concerns at his Pro Day.

He will not do any athletic testing at his Pro Day, but Tyson will do positional drills for teams on April 17.

You can make the case that all of Tyson’s injuries are unrelated and that he has been a victim of bad luck, but his medical history will surely carry weight with some organizations regardless.

He is expected to be drafted after Lemon and Tate, but as noted in the opening of this tier, that could end up working out in his favor, given the landing spots at the top half of the draft.

If Tyson does slip into the back half of Round 1, the Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Chiefs, and Patriots all are in play for a wide receiver selection in that range, as well as not-so-fun spots in Cleveland (where his brother plays in the NBA) and Miami.

Carnell Tate, Ohio State

Rookie Age: 21.6

Tate is the latest projected first-round pick from an extended line of Ohio State receivers.

Tate improved his receiving yardage and touchdowns each season in college while playing alongside Marvin Harrison Jr, Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith.

He closed this season catching 51 passes for 875 yards and 9 touchdowns over 11 games.

Tate had 2.14 yards per team pass attempt (WR11 in this class) while his 3.02 yards per route run were third.

The types of targets he earned helped anchor that yardage as he posted 17.2 yards per catch this past season.

53% of his targets resulted in a first down or touchdown (2nd in this class) while 17.7% of his receptions were scores (5th).

Tate was one of the best boundary receivers in the country last season, catching 12 of 14 contested targets (85.7%) while collecting 11 of 17 (64.7%) targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

Six of those resulted in touchdowns, tied for the most in this class.

His lack of forced missed tackles (only 11.8% of his receptions) was tied to usage.

Tate’s 14.6 air yards per target were the seventh-highest in this class.

Tate is the same weight as Lemon (192 pounds) but has a size advantage (6-foot-2) with longer arms (31.75) and huge hands (10.25) that show up as he wins in tight coverage.

He was not credited with a drop on his 66 targets.

You can make a strong case that Tate has the best hands in this class, and he makes tough catches for many receivers look routine.

Ironically, Tate has the inverse question marks about his versatility than we covered with Lemon.

Ohio State used Tate as their lid lifter.

He played 86.8% of his career snaps out wide and received next to no manufactured production.

That limited his production after the catch.

10.6% of his targets were screens.

We only have a small sample (only 30 routes), but when Tate did play from the slot last year, he posted a robust 5.0 yards per route run.

He may not be a player in the ilk we covered with Lemon getting peppered with zone looks, but Tate can win as a vertical slot.

While playing outside, Tate was also an asset in the run game, something teams will notice.

Pro Football Focus gave Tate the fourth-highest run blocking grade in this class.

The under-the-hood metrics for Tate look solid for a player next to a talent like Jeremiah Smith.

The biggest nit to pick with Tate in setting ceiling expectations is that he was never a truly dominant target earner playing alongside front-end receivers.

Would he have had the same type of target volume as Lemon or Tyson in those situations?

We don’t know, but even for the recent run of Ohio State receivers, Tate has a lighter profile of counting production entering the NFL.

He never hit 1,000 yards in a season and averaged 3.1 receptions per game over his career.

In 14 career games against ranked opponents, Tate averaged 2.9 receptions for 37.5 yards per game.

To provide some context to that, here are all of the first-round receivers who averaged fewer than 4.0 receptions per game over their college careers and their subsequent WR3 or better scoring seasons per game to date.

Now, to be clear, I do not believe this is a make-or-break data point (thresholds are never a be-all, end-all) for Tate, and I am more than into his potential to get a chance to grow as a feature receiver in the NFL.

Just some added perspective on how rare we have seen front-end picks have this type of limited production.

The first thing that stands out here is another mark of how much the league has overvalued speed entering the league.

There are so many fast guys who were only one-dimensional at the college level and struggled to develop in the NFL.

Especially in the same projected draft range as Tate, who is expected to be a top-10 pick.

Tate does win vertically, but he wins with nuance and route running rather than by blowing past defensive backs.

His 4.53 forty was brought up as a negative at the NFL Combine, but it is not a detriment because he tracks balls as well as anyone in this class and has great body control and a large catch radius.

If he were just fast with his profile, it would be more concerning.

I believe that fresh out of the packaging, Lemon and Tyson have an edge in earning full-field targets.

The 34-player sample above has a 29.4% rate of delivering at least one WR1 scoring season, but 47.1% also failed to turn in at least one WR3-or-better campaign, and 58.8% failed to turn in a WR2-or-better season so far.

I do not believe Tate has the after-the-catch athleticism to be on the Demaryius Thomas or Odell Beckham spectrum here, leaving Roddy White as the apex range of outcomes.

Dating myself, Javon Walker feels like an appropriate ceiling comparison.

2026 Tier 2 Rookie Wide Receivers

We are taking a small jump to another three-player tier.

The group here is not drastically far off from the previous tier and should push for first-round draft capital.

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie tight end tiers for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

Now that the Combine has passed, we have a full picture of the athletic data on this incoming tight end class.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

We will add notes on those prospects as we receive additional athletic testing data from Pro Days.

However, athletic testing has a low correlation to actual fantasy output.

When it does, it is typically counted twice for a productive player.

But when a prospect has subpar athletic testing and a limited or nonexistent production resume, we are playing with fire when attempting to elevate or rely on that player for NFL production.

Post-draft, we’ll have the added influence of draft investment and landing spot to add to the layout.

The tight end position has received an injection of much-needed youth in recent seasons.

We have had a rookie tight end close the season as a TE1 scorer in four of the past five seasons.

The NFL landscape has not only seen more young tight ends enter the league in recent seasons, but the league as a whole has shifted to using the position more to counter the rise of defensive backs and the spike in shell coverages.

The past two seasons have seen the highest 12-personnel rates since tracking began.

In 2025, that rate was 22.2% of offensive snaps.

13 personnel was used at a season-high 5.2%.

Tight end target rates have risen from the year prior in each of the past four seasons.

In 2025, tight ends had their most collective receptions per game (5.3) in the 2000s.

The 53.3 receiving yards per game from tight ends were the second most in a year in the 2000s, trailing only 2015 (53.8).

The 0.42 receiving touchdowns per game from tight ends trails only 2013 (0.46) and 2020 (0.45) over that span.

The position is being used more frequently, and there is a clear emphasis on its importance to NFL teams amid the NFL's current shift.

A record 27 tight ends were invited to the NFL Combine this year.

The 2026 class has another objectively strong group of players who can make an immediate impact at the top.

Jump To:

• Tier 1 Rookie Tight Ends
• Tier 2 Rookie Tight Ends
• Tier 3 Rookie Tight Ends
• Tier 4 Rookie Tight Ends
• Tier 5 Rookie Tight Ends
• Fantasy Football Rankings

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Tier 1 Rookie Tight Ends

Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

Rookie Age*: 21.5

*Age on 9/1/26

Sadiq had his first full season of playing time after Terrance Ferguson left for the NFL, securing 51 receptions for 560 yards and 8 touchdowns as a true junior at Oregon this past season.

Sadiq is going to check a lot of boxes for many teams as a pass catcher.

The former 4-star recruit is a versatile player in the route tree, the youngest tight end in this class, and made noise at the NFL Combine with his athletic testing.

Sadiq has long been head and shoulders ahead of the field as TE1 throughout the start of the draft process, but his top-down profile is not as glowing as that of recent Round 1 picks at the position.

While Sadiq’s age-adjusted production is more than solid, he was not as completely dominant as some of the recent picks that have commanded premier draft capital.

Round 1 Tight Ends Over the Past 10 Years

Comparing Sadiq to Round 1 tight ends over the past decade places him in fragile territory among the group.

Even if you apply any shade towards his receiving grade at Pro Football Focus, Sadiq is one of four tight ends here with a target rate per route below 20%, and he only clears Hayden Hurst in yards per route run.

Typically, we have seen these early-round tight end picks post silly production and control their passing games.

He was targeted on 19.4% of his routes (TE11 in this class) with 1.62 yards per route run (TE10).

He posted 1.15 yards per route run against man coverage (TE13) and 1.71 yards per route against zone coverage (TE13).

He also had a 10.5% drop rate (TE23).

Sadiq did not have a reception for longer than 30 yards last season, but he did lead the tight end class with 5 touchdowns on throws 20-plus yards downfield.

That is where things get interesting, and we can start to apply some context to why Sadiq did not go bonkers, given his complete profile.

A class-high 23.9% of his targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which accounted for 27.5% of his receptions (TE2 in this class).

Those targets near the line of scrimmage were on full display as the season wore on and Oregon began using Jamari Johnson as their field-stretching tight end.

Sadiq only posted 81 yards over the final four games, while Johnson put up 250 yards over that stretch.

Sadiq dealt with multiple injuries during the season that were never fully disclosed, but they had an impact following the Rutgers game.

He then outright missed the next week against Iowa, which Dan Lanning said was precautionary due to “lingering injuries,” but a game they nearly lost.

Sadiq did have two more good outings immediately after his return (8-96-1 and 6-72-2), but whatever injury he had had had an impact on his role for the rest of the season.

He went from averaging 14.5 yards per reception before missing time down to 8.5 yards per catch to close the season.

He went from 10.5 yards per target down to 6.2 yards per target to end the season.

His depth of target went from 8.5 air yards downfield to 6.4 yards downfield afterwards.

That applies some context to Sadiq’s end-of-the-season decline.

However, he still falls short of the Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, and Kyle Pitts level of dominance we saw entering the league, which casts a raincloud on how bullish gamers may be with front-end fantasy capital.

Sadiq brought everyone back at the NFL Combine, where he put on a strong showing.

With a track background, Sadiq ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 241 pounds.

That was good for a 99th percentile weight-adjusted measurement at his position.

He also had a 43.5-inch vertical, which was, at the time, a new record for the position.

There is no doubt that Sadiq is a strong athlete, and his straight-line speed will have him elevated up draft boards.

I am going to go on a slight side mission here that is more encompassing, larger picture thoughts on the position, but it is relevant for Sadiq and this draft class that we will be referencing as we move through the rest of the players, so bear with me for a moment.

What is compelling about this tight end class is that, in bulk, the position is leaner and lighter.

With the NFL shifting toward more 12-personnel and a higher rate of running, we are now seeing the position's archetypes impact fantasy.

We have seen a rise in blocking-only tight ends who play only on run downs, receiving-centric tight ends who are restricted to passing downs, and a small handful of guys who can block and receive, which keeps them on the field.

We want the latter because those guys are the ones stacking more opportunities.

Fantasy points at tight end are more heavily correlated to routes run than they are at wide receiver.

The past five TE1 overall scores have also led the position in routes.

I wrote about this last year regarding Dalton Kincaid, T.J. Hockenson, and Evan Engram, among others.

The slot-dependent tight end has felt some squeeze in this era if their team does not believe they can contribute in the run game (which is why we were bullish on Tucker Kraft).

Players like Josh Oliver, Dawson Knox, and Adam Trautman, among others, are having an impact on their receiving teammates.

Especially if their teams are good and they play in more running game scripts.

The Goldilocks zone is right around that 250-pound mark.

If there is too large a swing on the heavier side, you are not utilized as a pass catcher.

Darnell Washington was the only tight end at 260-plus to log a top-40 fantasy season last year.

If you are too light, you run the risk of losing snaps in the run game.

We do not see many sub-250-pound tight ends playing regularly on run downs in the NFL.

We do not get points for run blocking, but removing that tight end from the field in those sets does dent the top-down route participation since no team is 100% run from those sets.

In fact, the under-center, play-action passing targets are the most valuable you can have.

Here are the top fantasy tight ends from 2025 and a handful of added tight ends who are of the same body type as Sadiq, paired with their usage rates.

*Route % is only in games played

You can quickly see the wide range of outcomes we are working with here and how much more these teams ran the football with these guys off the field.

Sam LaPorta is the only tight end here whose team ran more with him on the field than off the field.

Even rookies who were active in the run game, such as Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, had trouble playing consistent snaps in the run game.

We want tight ends in the 70+% range and ideally close to 80+% to have a real shot at a front-end fantasy season.

The way to overcome being a limited blocker (not by talent, but team assessment) is to be a legitimate passing-game asset in an offense that is forced to pass.

This is the exact cocktail that happened for Trey McBride last season.

If you are on a lousy team, odds are that you will be running a lot of routes.

We have seen this with Harold Fannin last season (especially after David Njoku was injured and then jettisoned) and Brock Bowers the past two seasons.

Neither of those players is particularly active in the run game and has a similar body type to Sadiq, but they played on teams forced to throw more via game scripts.

Sadiq could just be as good a receiving asset as McBride, Bowers, or Fannin, but his collegiate profile, even when accounting for his injuries, is not nearly as prolific as those players.

We do not want to see him go the route of Evan Engram (whose one front-end fantasy season came in a year he led the position in routes run), Dalton Kincaid, or even worse, the path of Mike Gesicki, who was selected 42nd overall in his class.

It is a thin line to expect a player not only to be as good as Travis Kelce at his apex, but also to have the team environment overlap the talent.

Sadiq played just 27.7% of his snaps last season in-line (TE24 in this class), compared to 58.5% in slot (TE4), and 10.7% out wide (TE4). Backfield snaps made up the leftovers.

The good news for Sadiq is that, for his size, he is a willing and active blocker.

He had the sixth-highest run blocking grade in this draft class at the position per Pro Football Focus.

I do not treat PFF blocking grades as gospel, but they match what I saw from him in terms of effort and effectiveness, if that means anything to my eyes.

That is great for him, as he could potentially develop into an every-down tight end at the next level.

That said, we have to take a step of faith based on his physical profile, despite his good work in college.

In fact, he talked about this himself at the Combine, saying he felt good about his blocking at the college level while recognizing the need to improve in that area at the next level.

That self-awareness ties into the buzz that Sadiq was one of the best interviewees for teams based on word of mouth at the Combine.

I have used a lot of words to this point, not only to cover Sadiq but also to offer some top-down thoughts on where we are with the position at the moment.

To wrap this up in a tidier bow, Sadiq is exciting through the lenses of pass-catching upside, versatility, age, and athleticism.

Those aspects will have him drafted highly.

Where the bet comes in on him is placing faith in that draft capital opening the door to overcoming his limited production and physical archetype.

If you have followed my work in the past, you are aware that I rarely pay a premium for tight ends, especially in rookie drafts.

The position inherently scores fewer points than running backs and wide receivers.

That said, Sadiq enters Dynasty drafts in a weaker draft class at the other skill positions to aid fantasy gamers' cause.

As long as Sadiq has Round 1 draft capital, I do believe he is a mid-range round 1 fantasy pick in rookie drafts because the wide receivers selected at his price point will also be subject to potential limitations based on their archetypes if they land in the wrong hands.

Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt

Rookie Age: 23.4

Stowers has taken a unique path to this point.

He opened his college career at Texas A&M as a quarterback.

After failing to get on the field for two seasons, he transferred to New Mexico State, where he lost out in a quarterback competition with Diego Pavia and converted to tight end six weeks into the 2023 season.

He ended up catching 35 passes for 366 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first taste of playing tight end.

Then, he and Pavia transferred together to Vanderbilt, where Stowers posted seasons of 49-638-5 and 62-769-4 while winning the John Mackey Award for the best tight end this past season.

Stowers has a lot of overlap with Sadiq in terms of physical profile and usage, but he wins out as a more nuanced pass catcher than Sadiq is right now, resulting in stronger on-field production.

Stowers was targeted on 28.2% of his routes in 2025 (TE2 in this class) with a class-high 2.55 yards per route run.

He averaged 1.92 yards per team pass attempt, which was second in the class.

He led this class with 3.06 yards per route run against zone coverage.

He produced a first down or touchdown on a class-high 13.3% of his routes.

There was less manufactured for Stowers, as well.

Only 11.8% of his targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage (16th in this class).

Like Sadiq, Stowers has more of the profile of a pass catcher first than an all-around tight end.

He played 24.9% of his snaps in line (2nd-lowest rate from this class), playing 66.4% of his snaps from the slot and 8.4% out wide.

He is built nearly identically to Sadiq (6-foot-4 and 239 pounds), while he tested out amazingly at the NFL Combine.

Stowers ran a 4.51 40-yard dash (90th percentile) and posted a 45.5-inch vertical, breaking the position record minutes after Sadiq set it.

Stowers added an 11-foot-3 broad jump, which was also a new record for the position.

Despite overlapping Sadiq in many areas while being more productive on the field, Stowers is two years older and has more up in the air in terms of projected draft capital.

While Stowers faces some of the same positional limitations as Sadiq due to his physical profile, he lacks Sadiq's blocking ability at this stage.

Stowers was 19th in run-blocking grade at the position per Pro Football Focus last season, and it shows subjectively in his aggression in the run game.

Stowers has not been playing the position long.

The hope is that he will grow as a complete player, but he may not receive the front-end investment that Sadiq does to be pushed on the field early on.

I believe Stowers is potentially an arbitrage buy relative to Sadiq for NFL and fantasy purposes.

Based on the potential draft cost, I will likely end up with Stowers on more rosters, as well.

That said, Sadiq’s age and willingness as a blocker are factors between the two at face value.

2026 Tier 2 Rookie Tight Ends

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Let's look at the pre-draft profile for Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, including his strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy outlook for both redraft and Dynasty formats.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

Fernando Mendoza Pre-Draft Fantasy Profile

Rookie Age*: 22.9

*Age on 9/1/26

The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner is where this draft will kick off.

Mendoza transferred to Indiana after two seasons at Cal, where he and the team reeled off a 16-0 season and a National Championship.

After throwing 30 passing touchdowns over his two seasons at Cal, Mendoza threw 41 passing touchdowns last season.

The former 3-star recruit improved his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt average in all three seasons in college.

His final season completion percentage (72%) ranks 94th percentile, while his touchdown to interception rate (41 to 6) ranks 92nd percentile, and his 9.3 yards per pass attempt sits 84th percentile among all prospects since 2000.

Mendoza’s calling cards are that he has prototypical size (6-foot-5 and 236 pounds) and plays on schedule with accuracy.

A class-high 79% of his throws were on target in 2025.

The seasoning for Mendoza is that he played his best in high-leverage situations.

On 139 career dropbacks in the red zone, Mendoza threw only 1 interception while taking 7 sacks.

This past season at Indiana, Mendoza took 69 dropbacks in the red zone, throwing 26 passing touchdowns with 0 interceptions and taking 2 sacks.

On third and fourth downs, Mendoza had a class-high 75.3% on-target throw rate and a class-high 14.7% touchdown rate.

Mendoza was ripping the ball downfield in those spots, too, averaging 10.9 yards per throw downfield on third and fourth downs, which was second in this class.

The nits to pick with Mendoza entering the NFL are how he will perform in a more challenging environment and how he will adapt his game to the current NFL.

There will be some who ask about how his offensive environment at the college level was perfectly in tune with his strengths.

Mendoza had the lowest drop rate in this class (2.2%).

Mendoza benefited from a heavy RPO offense predicated on a high rate of throws outside the numbers and into traffic.

23.4% of his dropbacks and 25.4% of his pass attempts last season were on RPO calls, by far the highest rates of this class.

The next-closest quarterback in both departments was Mark Gronowski of Iowa, who had a 16.3% RPO dropback rate and 16.4% of his pass attempts on those play calls.

Mendoza only threw 55.2% of his passes over the middle of the field (12th in this class).

If you look at the current state of the NFL, we have seen a spike in more condensed formations and a continued spike in playing under center, turning your back to the defense, and using traditional play action.

That has increased relevancy, knowing that we have close to 100% certainty that Mendoza will be selected first overall by the Raiders, who just hired Klint Kubiak as their head coach.

In the past two seasons with the Seahawks and Saints, Kubiak’s passers have had under-center rates of 54.8% (2nd in the league) and 42.5% (5th).

Over his three collegiate seasons, Mendoza has had only six dropbacks under center.

While that does take a step of faith in transitioning to the NFL, Kubiak has elevated both Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, prospects who offer a manageable bar of expectations.

Despite playing in a heavy RPO scheme, Mendoza did make big-time throws.

Only 13.9% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage (3rd-lowest rate in the class).

Only 14.4% of his throws were 20 or more yards downfield (10th), but he had the highest on-target throw rate (54.5%) on those passes.

Even if you are factoring in that his infrastructure of systems and surrounding talent accentuated those characteristics, Mendoza did everything he was asked to a high degree.

Mendoza was also battle-tested due to his conference and postseason run.

On 303 dropbacks against Power Conference opponents, Mendoza led this class in completion rate (71.9%), yards per pass attempt (9.3), and touchdown rate (10.6%).

He had five games against top 10 defenses last season (Oregon twice, Iowa, Ohio State, and Miami).

Ohio State and Miami did make Mendoza work in both games, but overall, he completed 65.3% of his passes for 8.3 Y/A with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

That quality schedule did give us a sample of Mendoza playing under pressure, which showcased some of the limitations we could see at the next level when the pass rush ramps up.

Under pressure against Ohio State and Miami, Mendoza was 9 of 16 (56.3%) for 93 yards (5.8 Y/A) with 0 touchdowns.

Kept clean in those games, he was 22 of 34 (64.7%) for 316 yards (9.3 Y/A).

At the end of the day, we are fully aware that Mendoza can have a high floor.

The questions (particularly for fantasy) are about his ceiling.

Mendoza has the profile as a weekly QB2 for fantasy who can moonlight as a QB1 during spike weeks and finish as a back-end QB1 in cumulative scoring.

From a modeling perspective, the closest comparison for Mendoza that I have is Sam Bradford.

The one thing Mendoza does have in his back pocket compared to the QB2 pocket passer group for fantasy is that he is not a complete zero in the running game.

Mendoza is not a run-first passer, but he is the 53rd percentile in career rushing output.

He had a 7.7% scramble rate last season, which was seventh in this class.

I don’t believe Mendoza has the full creativity of a Brock Purdy when things are out of structure, but the top-down fantasy archetype for him is in the same ballpark as Purdy.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Let's look at the pre-draft profile for Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, including his strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy outlook for both redraft and Dynasty formats.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

Jeremiyah Love Pre-Draft Fantasy Profile

Rookie Age*: 21.3

*Age on 9/1/26

As a 19-year-old sophomore in 2024, Love was given the keys to the Notre Dame backfield, and he delivered on all of the expectations as the top running back recruit entering college.

That season, Love turned 191 touches into 1,362 total yards (7.1 yards per touch) and 19 touchdowns.

Following that breakout, Love came back this past season at age 20 and produced 1,652 yards and 21 scores on 226 touches (7.3 yards per touch).

He rushed for 6.9 yards per carry in each of his two seasons as the lead back.

Love led this running back class with 4.2 yards after contact per rush.

This past season, Love did that with only 35.2% of his rushes coming against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), the lowest rate in the class.

When Love faced those light boxes, he punished them with a gaudy 9.1 yards per attempt.

That led the country this past season.

For some added context, going back to the last decade of early-round running backs, Love’s 9.1 YPC against light boxes is by far the highest in his final season.

Ashton Jeanty posted 8.0 YPC against light boxes in his final season, which was the most by a first-round running back over the past decade.

Love cleared him by over a full yard on those attempts.

Of course, Love may not get to see many light box runs in the NFL.

25.1% of Love’s runs came against heavy boxes (2nd highest in this class) since everyone knew he was getting the ball.

Against those loaded boxes, Love posted 5.0 YPC, which was second in this class.

When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Love averaged 2.5 yards per carry (2nd) and forced a missed tackle on 32.5% of those runs, the highest rate in the class.

When Love gets into space, he is electric.

He averaged a robust 10.0 yards per rush when he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage.

Not only did that lead all running backs in this class, but that was also the highest yards per rush on runs hit beyond the line of scrimmage for a back with 100-plus attempts over the past 10 years.

I do not believe Love is as good a pass catcher right now as Reggie Bush or Jahmyr Gibbs were entering the NFL (players whom Love is frequently compared to), but he has a solid foundation in that area to build on as he enters the league.

Love caught 28 and 27 passes in each of his two seasons as the starter.

In 2025, Love was targeted on 22.2% of his routes (2nd in the class) and posted 1.83 yards per route run (3rd).

Love also finished with the fifth-highest grade in pass protection in this class per Pro Football Focus in 2025.

Apply any grains of salt you have to, but Love is a willing player in protection.

We did not see Love do much at the NFL Combine, but he did run a 4.36 40-yard dash at 6-foot, 212 pounds.

That 96th-percentile speed score was more than he needed to cement himself as the premier back in this draft class.

No prospect is guaranteed to succeed in the NFL, but Love truly checks every box.

He is young, athletic, and hyper productive.

In a class without much front-end talent, not only at the offensive skill positions, Love also stands out even greater among his peers in this class.

He is a complete player who can be inserted into an offense tomorrow as a foundational component.

If there is anything to really try and tear down with Love, he has a leaner build and has not yet handled a massive workload.

Low tread on the tires could also be another feature for him, but he has not had to shoulder a high workload to the degree of other front-end prospects.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Let's look at the pre-draft profile for Ohio State WR Carnell Tate, including his strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy outlook for both redraft and Dynasty formats.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

Carnell Tate Pre-Draft Fantasy Profile

Rookie Age*: 21.6

*Age on 9/1/26

Tate is the latest projected first-round pick from an extended line of Ohio State receivers.

Tate improved his receiving yardage and touchdowns each season in college while playing alongside Marvin Harrison Jr, Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith.

He closed this season catching 51 passes for 875 yards and 9 touchdowns over 11 games.

Tate had 2.14 yards per team pass attempt (WR11 in this class) while his 3.02 yards per route run were third.

The types of targets he earned helped anchor that yardage as he posted 17.2 yards per catch this past season.

53% of his targets resulted in a first down or touchdown (2nd in this class) while 17.7% of his receptions were scores (5th).

Tate was one of the best boundary receivers in the country last season, catching 12 of 14 contested targets (85.7%) while collecting 11 of 17 (64.7%) targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

Six of those resulted in touchdowns, tied for the most in this class.

His lack of forced missed tackles (only 11.8% of his receptions) was tied to usage.

Tate’s 14.6 air yards per target were the seventh-highest in this class.

Tate is the same weight as Makai Lemon (192 pounds) but has a size advantage (6-foot-2) with longer arms (31.75) and huge hands (10.25) that show up as he wins in tight coverage.

He was not credited with a drop on his 66 targets.

You can make a strong case that Tate has the best hands in this class, and he makes tough catches for many receivers look routine.

Ironically, Tate has the inverse question marks about his versatility than we covered with Lemon.

Ohio State used Tate as their lid lifter.

He played 86.8% of his career snaps out wide and received next to no manufactured production.

That limited his production after the catch.

10.6% of his targets were screens.

We only have a small sample (only 30 routes), but when Tate did play from the slot last year, he posted a robust 5.0 yards per route run.

He may not be a player in the ilk we covered with Lemon getting peppered with zone looks, but Tate can win as a vertical slot.

While playing outside, Tate was also an asset in the run game, something teams will notice.

Pro Football Focus gave Tate the fourth-highest run blocking grade in this class.

The under-the-hood metrics for Tate look solid for a player next to a talent like Jeremiah Smith.

The biggest nit to pick with Tate in setting ceiling expectations is that he was never a truly dominant target earner playing alongside front-end receivers.

Would he have had the same type of target volume as Lemon or Jordyn Tyson in those situations?

We don’t know, but even for the recent run of Ohio State receivers, Tate has a lighter profile of counting production entering the NFL.

He never hit 1,000 yards in a season and averaged 3.1 receptions per game over his career.

In 14 career games against ranked opponents, Tate averaged 2.9 receptions for 37.5 yards per game.

To provide some context to that, here are all of the first-round receivers who averaged fewer than 4.0 receptions per game over their college careers and their subsequent WR3 or better scoring seasons per game to date.

Now, to be clear, I do not believe this is a make-or-break data point (thresholds are never a be-all, end-all) for Tate, and I am more than into his potential to get a chance to grow as a feature receiver in the NFL.

Just some added perspective on how rare we have seen front-end picks have this type of limited production.

The first thing that stands out here is another mark of how much the league has overvalued speed entering the league.

There are so many fast guys who were only one-dimensional at the college level and struggled to develop in the NFL.

Especially in the same projected draft range as Tate, who is expected to be a top-10 pick.

Tate does win vertically, but he wins with nuance and route running rather than by blowing past defensive backs.

His 4.53 forty was brought up as a negative at the NFL Combine, but it is not a detriment because he tracks balls as well as anyone in this class and has great body control and a large catch radius.

If he were just fast with his profile, it would be more concerning.

I believe that fresh out of the packaging, Lemon and Tyson have an edge in earning full-field targets.

The 34-player sample above has a 29.4% rate of delivering at least one WR1 scoring season, but 47.1% also failed to turn in at least one WR3-or-better campaign, and 58.8% failed to turn in a WR2-or-better season so far.

I do not believe Tate has the after-the-catch athleticism to be on the Demaryius Thomas or Odell Beckham spectrum here, leaving Roddy White as the apex range of outcomes.

Dating myself, Javon Walker feels like an appropriate ceiling comparison.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Let's look at the pre-draft profile for Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, including his strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy outlook for both redraft and Dynasty formats.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

Jordyn Tyson Pre-Draft Fantasy Profile

Rookie Age*: 22.1

*Age on 9/1/26

Tyson has one of the best production resumes in this class.

Over four seasons at Colorado and Arizona State, Tyson has averaged 4.8 receptions (6th in this class) for 69.2 yards per game (4th) and 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game (3rd).

When Tyson was on the field in college (more on this later), he was the most dominant player in this class, accounting for 46.7% of Arizona State’s receiving yardage and 64.7% of their receiving scores.

This past season, Tyson was targeted on 32.3% of his routes (2nd).

He was in the slot for 24% of his routes, where he gobbled up target opportunities, drawing a target on 37.5% of his routes.

Tyson tends to freelance more of his routes from this group in a Stevie Johnson (or Jerry Jeudy) fashion, if we’re being negative, which can be as much a positive as a negative depending on his system in the NFL.

One reason Tyson takes some liberties with routes is that he is one of the best receivers in this class at understanding leverage and getting open against man coverage.

While that was a staple of Tyson’s game in college against man coverage, his success versus zone coverage was more of a mixed bag, something he will see a lot more of in the NFL.

Tyson posted 3.02 yards per route against man coverage with a target on a class-high 43.6% of his routes.

Against zone coverages, he posted 2.18 yards per route run with a target on 27.2% of his routes.

Those are still good rates against zone coverage, and he regularly gets open against zone.

Still, it is telling in the disparity just how much some of the liberties he takes in route running can raise the ceiling while running himself into a few more outs when navigating complex coverages, since you need the quarterback to see things the same way.

That can impact him depending on what type of quarterback he plays with in the NFL.

If Tyson is playing with a quarterback who expects you to be on time and running a 12-yard out at 12 yards, then that can get him into trouble.

But if he is playing with a quarterback who sees things the same way he does, he can thrive.

This recently came up with Josh Allen in commentary following the trade for D.J. Moore.

One area where Tyson needs to grow to the next level is with the ball.

For as good as he is at getting open in space, that did not translate with the football in his hands.

He has only averaged 5.1 yards after the catch for his career.

That is the 20th percentile for prospects since 2015.

In 2025, Tyson had a lower rate of missed tackles per reception (9.8%) than lid lifters such as Carnell Tate and Denzel Boston while averaging 3.0 fewer air yards per target than those guys.

When on the field, Tyson has the strongest full-field profile and route versatility of this trio.

He has reps at all three receiver positions, has manufactured production, and wins in every area.

The rub is that he has to stay on the field.

Tyson has missed time in every season and has missed a third of his available games due to injuries.

In 2022 with Colorado, he tore his ACL, MCL, and PCL.

That caused him to miss the remainder of that season and limited his 2023 season to only three games.

In 2024, he fractured his collarbone.

This past season, he missed three games due to a hamstring injury.

That prevented him from participating in NFL Combine testing outside the bench press.

Training for the Combine and focusing on sprinting drills could have aggravated that injury, but that initial injury was nearly four months ago.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba sat out nearly his entire final college season with a hamstring injury and then did not run at the Combine, but he alleviated any concerns at his Pro Day.

He will not do any athletic testing at his Pro Day, but Tyson will do positional drills for teams on April 17.

You can make the case that all of Tyson’s injuries are unrelated and that he has been a victim of bad luck, but his medical history will surely carry weight with some organizations regardless.

He is expected to be drafted after Makai Lemon and Tate, but as noted in the opening of this tier, that could end up working out in his favor, given the landing spots at the top half of the draft.

If Tyson does slip into the back half of Round 1, the Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Chiefs, and Patriots all are in play for a wide receiver selection in that range, as well as not-so-fun spots in Cleveland (where his brother plays in the NBA) and Miami.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Let's look at the pre-draft profile for USC WR Makai Lemon, including his strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy outlook for both redraft and Dynasty formats.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

Makai Lemon Pre-Draft Fantasy Profile

Rookie Age*: 22.2

*Age on 9/1/26

Following a 2024 breakout at age 20, where he posted 3.03 yards per route run playing alongside Ja’Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch, Lemon snagged 79 receptions for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns this past season.

In 2025, Lemon was targeted on 29.3% of his routes (7th in this class) with 3.13 yards per route run (2nd).

He is one of only two wideouts in this class to average over 3.0 yards per route run against both man coverage (3.29) and zone coverage (3.09).

He produced a first down or touchdown on 13.6% of his routes (3rd) while posting 2.75 yards per team pass attempt (2nd).

Lemon is a plug-and-play producer who can win on all three levels.

He was excellent after the catch, forcing a missed tackle on 26.6% of his receptions (8th).

Lemon averaged 6.4 yards after catch per reception, which was the third-highest among receivers in this class with an average depth of target over 10.0 yards downfield.

USC did get him the ball in the screen game (21.3% of his targets), but Lemon also pulled in 64% of his targets on throws 20-plus yards downfield (16 of 25), which was fourth in this class.

He led this draft class in receptions on throws of 20 or more yards downfield.

Lemon dabbled a little bit early on as a cornerback, which shows up in his understanding of spacing in zone coverage and in his release package at the line of scrimmage.

If there are any nits to pick with Lemon on the field, it is that he has not logged a significant amount of time playing outside in college and is not built like a prototypical lead wideout in the traditional sense.

Lemon ran 70.7% of his routes from the slot last season (8th in this class), where he caught 52 passes for 791 yards and 7 touchdowns.

At 5-foot-11 and 192 pounds, Lemon has 30.5-inch arms (12th percentile) and 8.75-inch hands (6th percentile).

That was not an issue for him when he was forced to win the contested catch game, however.

He attacks the football and has won in his sample of contested targets.

His 2.2% career drop rate is the second-best in this class.

Lemon won 10 of his 15 contested catch opportunities (tied for 4th in this class).

He also converted 58.3% of his targets in the red zone (7 of 12) for scores, which was second in the class.

While Lemon is not built in the mold of Calvin Johnson, I would argue he is entering the NFL at a time when his archetype is more relevant than ever.

The current landscape for wideouts winning as a high-end target earning WR1 in today’s NFL is about versatility: being able to win at the full route tree, play inside and out, finding space against all of the disguised coverages shaping the defensive meta, and creating after the catch.

We are no longer in an NFL where the alpha X receiver is dominating targets and stacking the most fantasy points.

That was the case again in 2025.

The top-12 scorers at the position in points per game last season were Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith–Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb.

Pickens, Adams, Collins, and Brown are the only players among that group who are traditional X options.

The rest of those guys all move around and win in space.

The past seven receivers to lead the position in fantasy points per game have been Nacua, Chase, Lamb, Cooper Kupp (twice), Adams, and Michael Thomas.

That followed a dominant stretch from Antonio Brown.

We would love to have it all (Jeremiah Smith is on his way, gamers), but you no longer have to be Megatron or Julio Jones to be elite in our game.

Lemon may take a step of faith in projection winning outside because he was so dominant from the slot, but when tasked to do so, he posted 3.37 yards per route run as an outside receiver as well.

Lemon’s most popular comparables are St. Brown and Nacua.

Those two players were selected on Day 3 of the NFL Draft and were the best value picks of their positions in recent memory.

Lemon is going to be a front-end pick.

Coming off a massive season by Smith-Njigba is relevant here because JSN is the closest recent comparable to Lemon when factoring in draft capital.

Smith-Njigba had nearly identical measurables at the NFL Combine (6-foot-1 and 196 pounds, with 30.5-inch arms and 9-inch hands).

Like Lemon, Smith-Njigba was deployed as a primary slot receiver in college.

That did roadblock him, to a degree, for fantasy purposes in opening his career.

Smith-Njigba was drafted to a team with established target earners in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Playing 67.6% and 77.4% of his snaps from the slot limited him in his first two seasons in the league when all three receivers were available.

But when given the runway to play as the feature WR1 in the offense, finally, Smith-Njigba flourished this past season.

Lemon may not have the same gaudy runout as Smith-Njigba, but he has the baseline for the type of receiver who has excelled for fantasy purposes.

Smith-Njigba’s recent success (and the undervalued nature of St. Brown and Nacua) will surely push Lemon’s draft stock in a weaker class.

That tale about Smith-Njigba is one to keep in mind if Lemon is drafted early, attached to an established target earner, and used primarily as a slot out of the package.

I doubt we are going to see Lemon completely flip to an exterior role to the same degree in year one, but Emeka Egbuka also had a higher slot rate in college than Lemon did as a first-round pick, and then just played 70% of his snaps out wide as a rookie, catching 63 passes for 938 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Let's look at the pre-draft profile for Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq, including his strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy outlook for both redraft and Dynasty formats.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

Kenyon Sadiq Pre-Draft Fantasy Profile

Rookie Age*: 21.5

*Age on 9/1/26

Sadiq had his first full season of playing time after Terrance Ferguson left for the NFL, securing 51 receptions for 560 yards and 8 touchdowns as a true junior at Oregon this past season.

Sadiq is going to check a lot of boxes for many teams as a pass catcher.

The former 4-star recruit is a versatile player in the route tree, the youngest tight end in this class, and made noise at the NFL Combine with his athletic testing.

Sadiq has long been head and shoulders ahead of the field as TE1 throughout the start of the draft process, but his top-down profile is not as glowing as that of recent Round 1 picks at the position.

While Sadiq’s age-adjusted production is more than solid, he was not as completely dominant as some of the recent picks that have commanded premier draft capital.

Round 1 Tight Ends Over the Past 10 Years

Comparing Sadiq to Round 1 tight ends over the past decade places him in fragile territory among the group.

Even if you apply any shade towards his receiving grade at Pro Football Focus, Sadiq is one of four tight ends here with a target rate per route below 20%, and he only clears Hayden Hurst in yards per route run.

Typically, we have seen these early-round tight end picks post silly production and control their passing games.

He was targeted on 19.4% of his routes (TE11 in this class) with 1.62 yards per route run (TE10).

He posted 1.15 yards per route run against man coverage (TE13) and 1.71 yards per route against zone coverage (TE13).

He also had a 10.5% drop rate (TE23).

Sadiq did not have a reception for longer than 30 yards last season, but he did lead the tight end class with 5 touchdowns on throws 20-plus yards downfield.

That is where things get interesting, and we can start to apply some context to why Sadiq did not go bonkers, given his complete profile.

A class-high 23.9% of his targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which accounted for 27.5% of his receptions (TE2 in this class).

Those targets near the line of scrimmage were on full display as the season wore on and Oregon began using Jamari Johnson as their field-stretching tight end.

Sadiq only posted 81 yards over the final four games, while Johnson put up 250 yards over that stretch.

Sadiq dealt with multiple injuries during the season that were never fully disclosed, but they had an impact following the Rutgers game.

He then outright missed the next week against Iowa, which Dan Lanning said was precautionary due to “lingering injuries,” but a game they nearly lost.

Sadiq did have two more good outings immediately after his return (8-96-1 and 6-72-2), but whatever injury he had had had an impact on his role for the rest of the season.

He went from averaging 14.5 yards per reception before missing time down to 8.5 yards per catch to close the season.

He went from 10.5 yards per target down to 6.2 yards per target to end the season.

His depth of target went from 8.5 air yards downfield to 6.4 yards downfield afterwards.

That applies some context to Sadiq’s end-of-the-season decline.

However, he still falls short of the Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, and Kyle Pitts level of dominance we saw entering the league, which casts a raincloud on how bullish gamers may be with front-end fantasy capital.

Sadiq brought everyone back at the NFL Combine, where he put on a strong showing.

With a track background, Sadiq ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 241 pounds.

That was good for a 99th percentile weight-adjusted measurement at his position.

He also had a 43.5-inch vertical, which was, at the time, a new record for the position.

There is no doubt that Sadiq is a strong athlete, and his straight-line speed will have him elevated up draft boards.

I am going to go on a slight side mission here that is more encompassing, larger picture thoughts on the position, but it is relevant for Sadiq.

With the NFL shifting toward more 12-personnel and a higher rate of running, we are now seeing the position's archetypes impact fantasy.

We have seen a rise in blocking-only tight ends who play only on run downs, receiving-centric tight ends who are restricted to passing downs, and a small handful of guys who can block and receive, which keeps them on the field.

We want the latter because those guys are the ones stacking more opportunities.

Fantasy points at tight end are more heavily correlated to routes run than they are at wide receiver.

The past five TE1 overall scores have also led the position in routes.

I wrote about this last year regarding Dalton Kincaid, T.J. Hockenson, and Evan Engram, among others.

The slot-dependent tight end has felt some squeeze in this era if their team does not believe they can contribute in the run game (which is why we were bullish on Tucker Kraft).

Players like Josh Oliver, Dawson Knox, and Adam Trautman, among others, are having an impact on their receiving teammates.

Especially if their teams are good and they play in more running game scripts.

The Goldilocks zone is right around that 250-pound mark.

If there is too large a swing on the heavier side, you are not utilized as a pass catcher.

Darnell Washington was the only tight end at 260-plus to log a top-40 fantasy season last year.

If you are too light, you run the risk of losing snaps in the run game.

We do not see many sub-250-pound tight ends playing regularly on run downs in the NFL.

We do not get points for run blocking, but removing that tight end from the field in those sets does dent the top-down route participation since no team is 100% run from those sets.

In fact, the under-center, play-action passing targets are the most valuable you can have.

Here are the top fantasy tight ends from 2025 and a handful of added tight ends who are of the same body type as Sadiq, paired with their usage rates.

*Route % is only in games played

You can quickly see the wide range of outcomes we are working with here and how much more these teams ran the football with these guys off the field.

Sam LaPorta is the only tight end here whose team ran more with him on the field than off the field.

Even rookies who were active in the run game, such as Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, had trouble playing consistent snaps in the run game.

We want tight ends in the 70+% range and ideally close to 80+% to have a real shot at a front-end fantasy season.

The way to overcome being a limited blocker (not by talent, but team assessment) is to be a legitimate passing-game asset in an offense that is forced to pass.

This is the exact cocktail that happened for Trey McBride last season.

If you are on a lousy team, odds are that you will be running a lot of routes.

We have seen this with Harold Fannin last season (especially after David Njoku was injured and then jettisoned) and Brock Bowers the past two seasons.

Neither of those players is particularly active in the run game and has a similar body type to Sadiq, but they played on teams forced to throw more via game scripts.

Sadiq could just be as good a receiving asset as McBride, Bowers, or Fannin, but his collegiate profile, even when accounting for his injuries, is not nearly as prolific as those players.

We do not want to see him go the route of Evan Engram (whose one front-end fantasy season came in a year he led the position in routes run), Dalton Kincaid, or even worse, the path of Mike Gesicki, who was selected 42nd overall in his class.

It is a thin line to expect a player not only to be as good as Travis Kelce at his apex, but also to have the team environment overlap the talent.

Sadiq played just 27.7% of his snaps last season in-line (TE24 in this class), compared to 58.5% in slot (TE4), and 10.7% out wide (TE4). Backfield snaps made up the leftovers.

The good news for Sadiq is that, for his size, he is a willing and active blocker.

He had the sixth-highest run blocking grade in this draft class at the position per Pro Football Focus.

I do not treat PFF blocking grades as gospel, but they match what I saw from him in terms of effort and effectiveness, if that means anything to my eyes.

That is great for him, as he could potentially develop into an every-down tight end at the next level.

That said, we have to take a step of faith based on his physical profile, despite his good work in college.

In fact, he talked about this himself at the Combine, saying he felt good about his blocking at the college level while recognizing the need to improve in that area at the next level.

That self-awareness ties into the buzz that Sadiq was one of the best interviewees for teams based on word of mouth at the Combine.

I have used a lot of words to this point, not only to cover Sadiq but also to offer some top-down thoughts on where we are with the position at the moment.

To wrap this up in a tidier bow, Sadiq is exciting through the lenses of pass-catching upside, versatility, age, and athleticism.

Those aspects will have him drafted highly.

Where the bet comes in on him is placing faith in that draft capital opening the door to overcoming his limited production and physical archetype.

If you have followed my work in the past, you are aware that I rarely pay a premium for tight ends, especially in rookie drafts.

The position inherently scores fewer points than running backs and wide receivers.

That said, Sadiq enters Dynasty drafts in a weaker draft class at the other skill positions to aid fantasy gamers' cause.

As long as Sadiq has Round 1 draft capital, I do believe he is a mid-range round 1 fantasy pick in rookie drafts because the wide receivers selected at his price point will also be subject to potential limitations based on their archetypes if they land in the wrong hands.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

Exiting the NFL Combine, we are digging into the 2026 fantasy rookie class for Dynasty rookie drafts, startups, and seasonal formats.

Even before the NFL Draft in April, rookies are available in Best Ball formats across all platforms.

That information gets applied to athletic models and layered alongside production profiles to shape each prospect's complete portfolio.

Let's look at the pre-draft profile for Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers, including his strengths, weaknesses, and fantasy outlook for both redraft and Dynasty formats.

Find the pre-draft profile for every notable fantasy prospect in our 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

Eli Stowers Pre-Draft Fantasy Profile

Rookie Age*: 23.4

*Age on 9/1/26

Stowers has taken a unique path to this point.

He opened his college career at Texas A&M as a quarterback.

After failing to get on the field for two seasons, he transferred to New Mexico State, where he lost out in a quarterback competition with Diego Pavia and converted to tight end six weeks into the 2023 season.

He ended up catching 35 passes for 366 yards and 2 touchdowns in his first taste of playing tight end.

Then, he and Pavia transferred together to Vanderbilt, where Stowers posted seasons of 49-638-5 and 62-769-4 while winning the John Mackey Award for the best tight end this past season.

Stowers has a lot of overlap with Kenyon Sadiq in terms of physical profile and usage, but he wins out as a more nuanced pass catcher than Sadiq is right now, resulting in stronger on-field production.

Stowers was targeted on 28.2% of his routes in 2025 (TE2 in this class) with a class-high 2.55 yards per route run.

He averaged 1.92 yards per team pass attempt, which was second in the class.

He led this class with 3.06 yards per route run against zone coverage.

He produced a first down or touchdown on a class-high 13.3% of his routes.

There was less manufactured for Stowers, as well.

Only 11.8% of his targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage (16th in this class).

Like Sadiq, Stowers has more of the profile of a pass catcher first than an all-around tight end.

He played 24.9% of his snaps in line (2nd-lowest rate from this class), playing 66.4% of his snaps from the slot and 8.4% out wide.

He is built nearly identically to Sadiq (6-foot-4 and 239 pounds), while he tested out amazingly at the NFL Combine.

Stowers ran a 4.51 40-yard dash (90th percentile) and posted a 45.5-inch vertical, breaking the position record minutes after Sadiq set it.

Stowers added an 11-foot-3 broad jump, which was also a new record for the position.

Despite overlapping Sadiq in many areas while being more productive on the field, Stowers is two years older and has more up in the air in terms of projected draft capital.

While Stowers faces some of the same positional limitations as Sadiq due to his physical profile, he lacks Sadiq's blocking ability at this stage.

Stowers was 19th in run-blocking grade at the position per Pro Football Focus last season, and it shows subjectively in his aggression in the run game.

Stowers has not been playing the position long.

The hope is that he will grow as a complete player, but he may not receive the front-end investment that Sadiq does to be pushed on the field early on.

I believe Stowers is potentially an arbitrage buy relative to Sadiq for NFL and fantasy purposes.

Based on the potential draft cost, I will likely end up with Stowers on more rosters, as well.

That said, Sadiq’s age and willingness as a blocker are factors between the two at face value.

Explore all of our 2026 NFL Draft content:

Rich Hribar's 2026 fantasy football rankings cover every relevant scoring format.

The tables below have fantasy football rankings and auction values for all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for half-point PPR (should be treated as a proxy for standard scoring), PPR, Superflex, and TE premium formats.

They also contain top 250 fantasy football rankings for PPR, half-point PPR, Superflex, and TE premium formats.

These rankings are also downloadable by clicking Print or CSV at the top of the table.

• 2026 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
• 2026 Half PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
• 2026 Superflex Fantasy Football Rankings
• 2026 TE Premium Fantasy Football Rankings

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings:

It is never too early to get ready for fantasy football season, and you can't afford to fall behind.

There is no better way to get prepared for the 2026 fantasy football season than the Sharp Football Draft Kit, powered by Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin.

This is the ultimate tool to prepare for best ball drafts, redraft formats, and Dynasty leagues.

This Draft Kit offers you:

• Fantasy Football Rankings
• Fantasy Football Projections
• Fantasy Football Tiers
• Dynasty Football Rankings
• Dynasty Football Tiers
• Dynasty Rookie Rankings
• Dynasty Rookie Profiles
• Fantasy Football Draft Approaches
• Fantasy Strength of Schedule
• Bye Week and Schedule Analysis
• Offseason Impact and Analysis
• And Much More

This hub will continually be updated, so keep checking back for the best premium & free content to get you ready for the 2026 fantasy football season.

Whether you are looking for the top players in best ball or the best Dynasty bets, check out everything you get in the Sharp Football Draft Kit below.

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Fantasy Football Rankings

• Top 250 Rankings
• Fantasy Football Projections
• Quarterback Profiles (Coming soon)
• Running Back Profiles (Coming soon)
• Wide Receiver Profiles (Coming soon)
• Tight End Profiles (Coming soon)
• Exploiting the Default Rankings (Coming soon)

2026 Dynasty Rookie Rankings

• Pre-Draft Dynasty Rookie Quarterback Rankings & Profiles
• Pre-Draft Dynasty Rookie Running Back Rankings & Profiles
• Pre-Draft Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings & Profiles
• Pre-Draft Dynasty Rookie Tight End Rankings & Profiles
• Positional Rookie Rankings, Top 60, Superflex (Coming soon)

2026 Dynasty Rankings

• Positional Rankings, Top 300, Superflex

Fantasy Football Analysis and Impact: Offseason Moves

• 2026 Free Agency Fantasy Tracker
• Kenneth Walker Signs With Chiefs
• Travis Etienne Signs With Saints
• Malik Willis Signs With Dolphins
• Mike Evans Signs With 49ers
• D.J. Moore Traded to Bills
• Kyler Murray Signs With Vikings
• Jaylen Waddle Traded to Broncos
• 2026 Free Agency Fantasy Winners & Losers
• NFL Draft Fantasy Fallout (Coming soon)

2026 Fantasy Football Tiers

• Quarterback Tiers (Coming soon)
• Running Back Tiers (Coming soon)
• Wide Receiver Tiers (Coming soon)
• Tight End Tiers (Coming soon)

2026 Fantasy Football Draft Approaches

• QB Fantasy Football Draft Strategy (Coming soon)
• RB Fantasy Football Draft Strategy (Coming soon)
• WR Fantasy Football Draft Strategy (Coming soon)
• TE Fantasy Football Draft Strategy (Coming soon)

2026 Fantasy Football Average Draft Position

• Best Ball ADP Tracker
• What We Can Learn From Quarterback ADP (Coming soon)
• What We Can Learn From Running Back ADP (Coming soon)
• What We Can Learn From Wide Receiver ADP (Coming soon)
• What We Can Learn From Tight End ADP (Coming soon)

2026 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends

• 2026 League Trends (Coming soon)
• Quarterback Trends (Coming soon)
• Running Back Trends (Coming soon)
• Wide Receiver Trends (Coming soon)
• Tight End Trends (Coming soon)
• NFL Team Per Drive Trends (Coming soon)
• NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming soon)
• NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming soon)
• Touchdown Trends (Coming soon)
• Red Zone Regression: Quarterbacks (Coming soon)
• Red Zone Regression: Running Backs (Coming soon)
• Red Zone Regression: Wide Receivers (Coming soon)
• Red Zone Regression: Tight Ends (Coming soon)

2026 NFL Schedule Analysis

• 2026 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule (Coming soon)
• 2026 NFL Strength of Schedule (Coming soon)
• 2026 NFL Schedule Grid (Coming soon)
• Teams Helped and Hurt by the 2026 NFL Schedule (Coming soon)
• 10 Things You Need to Know About the 2026 NFL Schedule (Coming soon)
• 2026 Bye Week Cheatsheet (Coming soon)

Rich Hribar's 2026 fantasy football projections cover every relevant scoring format.

The table below has fantasy football projections for all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for standard, half-point PPR, full-PPR, and TE premium scoring formats.

The fantasy football projections below can be filtered by position and scoring system across 500+ NFL players for the 2026 season.

These projections are also downloadable by clicking Print or CSV at the top of the table.

Don't Miss Out on The Best Fantasy Football Coverage in the Business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

From rankings to the best draft strategies, Sharp Football has everything you need to get ready for the fantasy season in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

2026 Fantasy Football Projections:

Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive all our 2026 NFL content:

Just as free agency started to calm down, the Broncos made a big move for both real and fantasy football.

Denver sent a package of picks that includes No. 30 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft to Miami for Jaylen Waddle.

Let's look at how this trade affects the fantasy value of Waddle as well as Denver's (former?) No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton.

Explore more 2026 NFL Free Agency content:

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Value With the Denver Broncos

Some years are slow when it comes to impactful fantasy free agency moves, but this year promises to be more exciting with several quality running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends available on the open market.

Every time a major free agent finds a new home in 2026, we will break down exactly what the move means for fantasy football: who benefits and who gets hurt.

We cover the player who signed, the teammates whose roles just changed, and what it means for the team he is leaving.

New analysis is added as signings are reported, with the most recent moves at the top.

When a signing is big enough to warrant a full individual breakdown, we'll link to a dedicated player article directly from that entry.

For full contract details and more of a “real football” look at the biggest moves, see our NFL Free Agency Signing Tracker.

Last Updated: March 17

Explore more 2026 NFL Free Agency content:

2026 NFL Free Agency Fantasy Analysis: Every Signing (Updated Daily)

• Jaylen Waddle Traded to Broncos
• Kyler Murray Signs With Vikings
• Rachaad White, Chris Rodriguez, Keaton Mitchell, & Emanuel Wilson Find New Teams
• Aaron Jones Staying With Vikings
• Chig Okonkwo Lands With Commanders
• Under the Radar Running Back Signings
• Under the Radar Wide Receiver Signings
• Romeo Doubs Joins Patriots Receiver Room
• Lions Sign Isiah Pacheco to Replace David Montgomery
• Wan'Dale Robinson Reunites With Brian Daboll in Tennessee
• Isaiah Likely Reunites With John Harbaugh in New York
• Michael Pittman Traded to Steelers
• J.K. Dobbins Back With Broncos
• Mike Evans Leaves Bucs for 49ers
• Travis Etienne Ends Up With the Saints
• Dolphins Replace Tua Tagovailoa With Malik Willis
• Kenneth Walker Lands With the Chiefs
• Colts Bring Back Alec Pierce With Four-Year, $116 Million Deal
• D.J. Moore Traded to Buffalo Bills
• Lions trade David Montgomery to Texans

Jaylen Waddle Traded to Broncos

While it was not the A.J. Brown trade some are waiting for, we got a big move in the receiver market on March 17.

The Broncos acquired Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins in exchange for a package of picks that includes No. 30 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.

I looked at how Waddle's move affects his fantasy value as well as Courtland Sutton's outlook.

Click here for my analysis

Kyler Murray Signs With Vikings

It might have taken a day longer than expected, but Kyler Murray landed with the Vikings on a one-year deal.

For Murray, it is a chance to work with Kevin O'Connell to rehab his value before hitting the open market again next year.

For Minnesota, it is a low-cost shot on a former No. 1 overall pick who gives them another option should J.J. McCarthy continue to struggle.

But what does it mean for fantasy football?

Rich Hribar has that covered with a deep dive into Murray's fantasy value with the Vikings, as well as how this move affects Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Click here for Rich's analysis

Rachaad White, Chris Rodriguez, Keaton Mitchell, & Emanuel Wilson Find New Teams

Free agency has mostly calmed down, but there are still some interesting moves trickling in, including Rachaad White signing with the Commanders, Chris Rodriguez joining the Jaguars, Keaton Mitchell going to the Chargers, and Emanuel Wilson signing with the Seahawks.

As it stands right now, White appears to be in a good spot with the Commanders.

The only other back on the roster is Bill Croskey-Merritt, who fell in and out of favor as a rookie and was not a factor in the passing game.

We know what White can do as a receiver, and there should at least be a path for him to get more early-down work.

That said, the Commanders are certainly one of the teams to watch for Jeremiyah Love — the Saints and Chiefs, who pick right behind Washington, decided to spend big on running back in free agency, likely because they knew Love was not getting to them.

Even if Washington does not land Love, they could still look to add to this backfield.

Mitchell is joining an interesting backfield that currently includes Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal, and JaretPatterson, with Najee Harris still a free agent.

Hampton worked as the lead back when healthy last season, seeing 67.4% of the running back carries in his active games.

Mitchell should slot in as the complementary and explosive option behind him, although he was not a major factor as a receiver in Baltimore, which is usually a place where a secondary back can make some noise.

Explosive plays are something Mitchell can bring.

He has recorded at least 10 yards on 18.2% of his career runs.

De'Von Achane led all backs with at least 100 carries in explosive run rate last year at 16.8%.

Rodriguez probably has a cleaner path to consistent carries depending on what Jacksonville does the rest of the offseason.

With Travis Etienne no longer on the roster, second-year backs Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. are currently atop the depth chart.

Allen was primarily a receiving-down back as a rookie, so it is likely between Tuten and Rodriguez for early-down work.

Tuten's efficiency numbers left a lot to be desired last season, and we did not see the big-play ability he showed in college (only 6% of his carries went for more than 10 yards).

As Rich Hribar pointed out, though, Tuten's usage probably played a role in those overall efficiency numbers.

27.9% of Tuten's rookie touches were in the red zone, which makes it more difficult to produce those big plays.

Of course, his yards per carry average only increases to 4.1 if you take out those red-zone touches, and his explosive run rate only jumps to 6.8%.

Tuten should enter training camp as the favorite for the early-down work, assuming the Jaguars do not add anyone else to the backfield, but he will need to show better down-to-down consistency than he did as a rookie.

Wilson is in a great spot for at least early-season work in Seattle.

Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL on January 17, which makes it very unlikely he is ready for Week 1.

That opens the door for Wilson on a depth chart that currently has just George Holani and Kenny McIntosh behind Charbonnet.

Wilson was not elite while filling in for Josh Jacobs over the last two years, but he has averaged 4.5 yards per carry with an 11.2% explosive run rate thus far in his career.

Those aren't bad numbers, and Seattle should remain committed to running the ball even with the change at offensive coordinator.

He needs to dodge any big additions the rest of the offseason, but Wilson is suddenly in a good spot from a fantasy perspective.

Aaron Jones Staying With Vikings

Aaron Jones was expected to be released by the Vikings, but he agreed to a revised contract to stay with the team for 2026.

Jones' return is a blow for Jordan Mason, who appeared to be set up for a featured role in Minnesota.

Jones and Mason were both healthy from Week 8 to Week 16 last season.

Over that span, Jones handled 58% of the running back carries while running 149 routes to 45 for Mason.

Mason scored 2 touchdowns to just 1 for Jones, but Jones was on the field for 20 of the 35 snaps in goal-to-go situations.

Those low touchdown totals hurt both from a fantasy perspective.

Jones was the RB38 in half-PPR scoring over that span, and Mason was 53rd among 56 qualified running backs.

Minnesota's offense should be better in 2026, assuming they add a quarterback as expected, but this could once again be a lackluster backfield split.

We could also see Jones lose some of that grip on the early-down work, given the Vikings were willing to move on from him this offseason.

Chig Okonkwo Lands With Commanders

It was not a headline-grabbing signing, but Chig Okonkwo ended up with the Commanders.

That is an interesting landing spot for a player who never produced at a high level but was always part of the offense during his rookie deal with the Titans.

Okonkwo has also been productive after the catch at points in his career.

He was 11th among qualified tight ends in yards after catch per reception last season, and 61.1% of his yards were after the catch (10th).

Touchdowns were a consistent fantasy issue for him in Tennessee — he scored 8 in four seasons — but Washington should offer a better offensive environment with a healthy Jayden Daniels.

Okonkwo is not someone to target in standard-sized redraft leagues or anything like that, but he is suddenly a very interesting late-round addition to Daniels stacks in best ball formats.

Under the Radar Running Back Signings

Kenneth Walker and Travis Etienne were the big running back names, but there were other interesting signings early in free agency.

Kenneth Gainwell is set to play for the Bucs, Rico Dowdle will replace him with the Steelers, and Tyler Allgeier is going to Arizona.

Gainwell can return value in the Rachaad White role in Tampa, and Dowdle could get more early work in Pittsburgh, pushing Jaylen Warren back into a complementary role.

Allgeier stands out among this group, though.

The Cardinals did adjust James Conner‘s contract to keep him around, but Allgeier is set to earn more this season than Conner and Trey Benson, who is still on his third-round rookie deal.

Allgeier is not as good a running back as Bijan Robinson (Who is?), but he has consistently created yards in the NFL.

Among all running backs with at least 300 touches since 2022, he is 10th in yards after contact per rush.

On the negative side, Allgeier has not been a factor as a pass catcher, and the Cardinals appear poised to be one of the worst teams in the league.

Game script will likely be against him, while Conner and Benson are real competition.

Allgeier will likely top out as a bye week fill-in where you hope for a touchdown, but it is at least worth calling out that he is probably the best bet for the lead job in Arizona.

Under the Radar Wide Receiver Signings

It was not just the running backs that had some interesting lower-level signings.

Jalen Nailor signing with the Raiders and Jahan Dotson joining the Falcons stood out early in free agency.

Nailor is worth a mention both because of the depth chart in Las Vegas and the contract he was given (3 years, $35 million).

Nothing stands out about Nailor's per snap numbers, but it is tough to draw targets away from Justin Jefferson.

There were also big offensive issues in 2025.

He has averaged 9.4 yards per target throughout his career — would have been WR12 among qualified receivers last year — and has 15 end zone targets the last two years.

Brock Bowers should be the primary target for Fernando Mendoza, but Nailor is the early favorite for receiver targets in a group that includes Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Dont'e Thornton.

We should expect something of a run-heavy offense under Klint Kubiak with a rookie quarterback, but Nailor could easily be the No. 2 target, has been a big-play guy thus far in his career (15.4 yards per catch), and has been a factor in the scoring area even as a secondary option for the Vikings.

As for Dotson, he did not get a big contract, but he was prioritized early in free agency by the Falcons.

Atlanta released Darnell Mooney, opening up the No. 2 receiver spot.

They also brought home Olamide Zaccheaus, but Dotson got more money.

There is a real path to targets in 2026 for Dotson, something that did not exist for him in Philadelphia.

That said, he simply has to be more productive with those looks.

Dotson has a career 56.8% catch rate, and it was actually worse than that with the Eagles.

Romeo Doubs Joins Patriots Receiver Room

Despite their great playoff run, New England's lack of talent at receiver was exposed in last year's playoffs.

Especially after moving on from Stefon Diggs, the Patriots had to add some help on the outside for Drake Maye.

Their first major move came on the second day of free agency, when they signed former Packer Romeo Doubs to a four-year deal.

Doubs is not a like-for-like replacement for Diggs, who ran half of his routes from the slot last season and averaged 8.5 air yards per target.

Doubs profiles more like the receivers left behind — Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins — strongly suggesting New England is not done adding to this room.

As for Doubs, he will need to take on a large chunk of Boutte's and Hollins' work to be a viable fantasy starter.

That pair combined for 111 targets, 79 catches, 1,101 yards, and 8 touchdowns in 2025.

That would be a great fantasy line for Doubs, but he is unlikely to completely box out both of them, especially after Boutte showed well as a downfield threat last year.

Doubs has been a consistent threat as a touchdown scorer throughout his career.

He had 21 touchdowns in four seasons with the Packers despite running a route on just 68.5% of their dropbacks over that span.

His 32 end zone targets since he entered the league in 2022 rank 24th among all wide receivers.

Last year, Boutte was 32nd in end zone targets among receivers, and Hollins was 42nd.

There should be scoring opportunities here, especially if the Patriots are pushed more by a more difficult schedule.

Unfortunately, New England's receiver room looks like an unfinished product, which makes it difficult to be confident in Doubs' ultimate role.

Lions Sign Isiah Pacheco to Replace David Montgomery

Detroit was always likely to add a veteran running back after moving on from David Montgomery, and that running back will be Isiah Pacheco.

Pacheco is coming off two down seasons in a row and has seemingly struggled to recover from the ankle injury he suffered early in the 2024 season.

As Warren Sharp noted:

Pacheco among 49 RBs with 100+ attempts:

#46 in explosive run rate (3.4%)
#47 in longest rush (16 yds on 118 attempts)
#47 in success rate (29.7%)
#38 in YPC (3.9)

This is despite him facing the NFL's HIGHEST rate of light boxes & LOWEST rate of 7+ and 8+ box defenders last year.

Pacheco also ranked #44 of 48 RBs in rushing yards over expected.

Pacheco has struggled to create big plays throughout his career, averaging an explosive run on just 8.3% of his career attempts.

That would have ranked 36th among qualified running backs last year.

The Lions had already given the backfield to Jahmyr Gibbs by the end of last season, and the version of Pacheco we have seen over the last two seasons is less of a threat than Montgomery.

This is a good outcome for Gibbs' fantasy 1.01 case.

Wan'Dale Robinson Reunites With Brian Daboll in Tennessee

One of the worst-kept secrets of free agency was that Wan'Dale Robinson would reunite with new Titans OC Brian Daboll in Tennessee.

That's exactly what happened on Monday with Robinson signing a four-year, $70 million deal.

The Titans were desperate for receiver help, and Robinson is coming off the best season of his career, taking more of a No. 1 role following the injury to Malik Nabers.

He also showed more ability to work as a full-field receiver, setting career highs in air yards per target (8.5), snaps out wide (43.1%), intermediate targets (16.4%), and deep targets (15%).

Those numbers still ranked 75th, 83rd, 81st, and 60th among qualified receivers.

In part because of that, Robinson averaged 1.22 receiving fantasy points per target last season, which was 93rd among qualified receivers.

That number is 1.12 for his career, and he has never averaged better than 1.3 fantasy points per target in a season.

Promisingly, Robinson did lead the Giants with 10 end zone targets last year, but that was double the number he had coming into the season.

He also converted just 3 of those into touchdowns.

Robinson has been a target earner throughout his career, the Titans paid him a good contract, he is reuniting with a coach who knows him, and Tennessee's target tree is wide open.

Those are all positives, but can Robinson be more than a “better in PPR” fantasy player even as the clear No. 1 option for the Titans?

Do they even view him as that?

There is a risk Robinson gets pushed too far up ADP this draft season, much like Calvin Ridley did last year (have to take some blame for that), just based on the “someone is going to get targets” fallacy.

Even if Robinson does get those targets, how valuable will they be?

Isaiah Likely Reunites With John Harbaugh in New York

After years of being arguably underused in a John Harbaugh-coached team, Isaiah Likely finally escaped…to a John Harbaugh-coached team.

Likely signed a three-year, $40 million contract with the Giants early in free agency, giving New York another weapon for Jaxson Dart.

The receiver situation in New York was not ideal last year, so we should not read too much into things, but Dart did have a good connection with Theo Johnson.

Johnson was targeted on 20.1% of his routes and had 20.1% of the team's targets with Dart at quarterback.

He was second on the team with 5 end-zone targets from Dart.

Of course, Johnson is still there, and neither player is a traditional inline tight end.

Johnson did play more there last season than Likely has in his career, but PFF still charted Johnson as playing in the slot or out wide on 44% of his snaps.

The Chiefs were 11th in 2+ tight end usage under Matt Nagy last year, but will they roll out both Johnson and Likely enough to keep both viable?

The majority of those snaps will probably go to Likely moving forward, which obviously crushes Johnson's short-term and Dynasty fantasy value.

As for Likely, while the situation is still not perfect, he was signed to be the clear No. 1 tight end for the first time in his career.

The Giants also lost Wan'Dale Robinson, which opens up more target opportunities even with Malik Nabers coming back.

Likely ran a route on at least 80% of Baltimore's dropbacks 10 times in four seasons.

He averaged 10.4 half-PPR points in those contests, which would have been the TE5 last year.

That was a different (better) offense with a different (better, all due respect to Dart) quarterback, but we have seen enough signs of fantasy upside from Likely to make this a situation to target as long as he does not creep too high in ADP.

Michael Pittman Traded to Steelers

After re-signing Alec Pierce to a massive deal, the Colts moved on from Michael Pittman, trading him to the Steelers.

Pittsburgh quickly signed Pittman to a three-year, $59 million extension, showing commitment to their new receiver.

On the surface, Pittman is a good complement for DK Metcalf.

Pittman has averaged 8.6 air yards per target throughout his career, with 67% of his targets coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Metcalf saw his deep target share decrease while playing with Aaron Rodgers last season, but he still averaged 10.6 air yards per target and has a 12.5 career average.

Assuming Rodgers returns, Pittman should also fit well with his playing style.

Rodgers is 31st in air yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks over the last two seasons (6.5) and second in the rate of throws that travel fewer than 10 yards downfield (74.8%).

58% of his passes have come within 2.5 seconds of the snap, the second-highest rate in the league over that span.

That was with two different teams and two different offensive coordinators.

If he returns, Rodgers will be working within a Mike McCarthy offense this year, which he obviously knows very well.

We could see more pace for the Steelers with the coaching change, though they already ranked eighth in neutral pace last season, but Rodgers has not traditionally been a fast-paced quarterback.

Overall, this looks like a good real-life situation for Pittman, but the fantasy upside is questionable.

Metcalf is still the No. 1 receiver, and Pittman is a volume-dependent fantasy asset — 1.29 fantasy points per target in his career.

Pittman is unlikely to cost much, but even if the season-long totals make him look like a value as the WR40 (or wherever he ends up), will he post enough big scores to be a meaningful fantasy starter?

I would lean toward no.

J.K. Dobbins Back With Broncos

We do not focus as much on players who re-sign since we have already seen them in action, but this one is interesting from a fantasy perspective.

J.K. Dobbins was the clear lead back in Denver over the first 10 weeks of last season, seeing 72.9% of the running back carries.

He was effective in that role, averaging 5 yards per carry with an explosive run on 13.7% of his attempts (aka, being a healthy J.K. Dobbins).

He was only the RB22 in half-PPR points per game at that point because of his relative lack of involvement in the passing game and a lowly 4 touchdown total.

Still, the Broncos were a solid rushing team with Dobbins at the helm.

Dobbins was injured in Week 10, though, and RJ Harvey took over as the lead back.

Harvey struggled to consistently produce in that role, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with a negative run on 20.8% of his attempts.

A second-round pick last year, the Broncos likely hoped they could use Dobbins for one year as a bridge and then hand the reins to Harvey.

They have now brought back Dobbins, and it is fair to wonder if they will look to make more additions to the backfield.

Unless his passing game usage improves this year, it is hard to get too excited about Dobbins as a fantasy play, though he is a fine enough pick at his current RB42 price ahead of free agency — that will certainly go up.

This signing is more about Harvey, whose fantasy value has taken a hit both in the short term and from a Dynasty perspective.

That said, Dobbins' extensive injury history suggests Harvey should get another crack at the lead job this year, assuming Denver does not make any other big additions.

Mike Evans Leaves Bucs for 49ers

Mike Evans is no longer a Buccaneer, opting to sign with the 49ers in free agency.

Rich Hribar examined Evans' fantasy value with the 49ers, how his signing affects Ricky Pearsall, and what is left behind in Tampa Bay.

Click here to read Rich's analysis.

Travis Etienne Ends Up With the Saints

With Alvin Kamara‘s future up in the air, the Saints made a big addition in free agency, signing Travis Etienne.

Rich Hribar examined Etienne's fantasy value with the Saints and what Jacksonville's backfield could look like with him gone.

Click here to read Rich's analysis.

Dolphins Replace Tua Tagovailoa With Malik Willis

Because of his ability as a runner and the per-snap upside he showed with the Packers, Malik Willis was one of the most exciting quarterbacks available in free agency, especially when it came to fantasy football.

Rich Hribar examined Willis' fantasy value with the Dolphins and how his signing affects De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle.

Click here to read Rich's analysis.

Kenneth Walker Lands With the Chiefs

Kenneth Walker was the first major fantasy football piece to move in free agency.

Rich Hribar dove into Walker's fit with the Chiefs and 2026 fantasy value.

Click here to read Rich's analysis.

Colts Bring Back Alec Pierce With Four-Year, $116 Million Deal

The Colts had two strong candidates for the franchise tag ahead of the deadline last week.

They decided to use the transition tag to keep Daniel Jones in the fold, potentially allowing Alec Pierce to hit the open market.

That will not happen.

Just after the negotiating window opened, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Colts and Pierce agreed to a four-year, $116 million contract.

Pierce was already one of the better deep threats heading into last season, and he had easily his best season last year.

He set career highs in targets (84), receptions (47), and receiving yards (1,003) in 2025.

His per-snap numbers also were the best of his career.

Pierce averaged 2.11 yards per route and was targeted on 17.7% of his routes.

From a fantasy perspective, Pierce was the WR23 in half-PPR points per game.

Because of his usage down the field, Pierce was the WR4 among qualified receivers (250 routes) in fantasy points per target.

That is a boom-or-bust fantasy profile, but there is room for Pierce to grow both from a total target perspective and his full-field usage.

Pierce had easily the highest intermediate target share of his career in 2025 (47.6% of his target).

Shortly after re-signing Pierce, the Colts traded Michael Pittman to the Steelers, opening up more of that underneath usage.

If that full-field usage trend continues, Jones stays healthy, and the Colts are once again a quality offense as they were at the beginning of last season, there is some room for growth for Pierce.

D.J. Moore Traded to Buffalo Bills

The Bills came into the offseason searching for receiver help, and they found it by sending a second-round pick to the Bears in exchange for D.J. Moore and a fifth-round selection.

Rich Hribar examined the trade from all sides, looking at the fantasy value for Moore, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III in 2026.

Click here to read Rich's analysis.

Lions trade David Montgomery to Texans

David Montgomery shot down rumors that he had requested out of Detroit, but the Lions moved him anyway, trading him to the Texans the week before free agency.

There are two sides to this deal from a fantasy perspective.

The first is easiest to cover.

How David Montgomery Trade Affects Jahmyr Gibbs' Fantasy Value

While the Lions will almost certainly add some help either in free agency or the draft, trading Montgomery sets up Jahmyr Gibbs as the unquestioned No. 1 in Detroit's backfield.

The workload split had already leaned that way over the back half of last season — Gibbs handled 65% of the running back carries with a 19.7% target share from Week 10 on — so it is fair to question how much larger his workload can grow.

Still, this trade locks him into at least that level of work, which was good enough for him to be the overall RB1 in half PPR points per game in that aforementioned timeframe.

That high-scoring run also came with Montgomery playing essentially half of the snaps on goal-to-go plays and scoring 2 of the 5 running back touchdowns on those plays.

David Montgomery's Fantasy Value With the Texans

On the other side, Montgomery is joining a backfield desperate for better production in 2026.

The Texans ranked 27th in yards per carry, 29th in success rate, 27th in explosive run rate, 27th in negative run rate, and 25th in yards before contact on running back carries last season.

That yards before contact number is a concern for Montgomery, since he is likely looking at a big downgrade on the offensive line, though the Lions were not elite run blockers themselves last season.

Montgomery should be looking at a lot more work, though.

Woody Marks had great moments as a rookie, eventually becoming the clear lead back in Houston, but his per touch metrics were poor.

Among the 43 running backs with at least 150 touches last season, Marks ranked 42nd in yards per carry, 37th in explosive run rate, and 39th in negative run rate.

He was 37th in yards before contact per run — a metric that is shared between the offensive line and running backs — and 40th in yards after contact per carry.

Marks profiled more as a complementary and passing-down back as a college prospect, and adding Montgomery would allow the Texans to use him more in that role moving forward.

That is bad news for Marks' fantasy value, but it does open up a significant potential workload for Montgomery.

The Texans were eighth in running back carries last season despite their struggles and ranking as a top 10 team in pass rate over expected.

That is because they trailed on just 359 offensive snaps last season, the fifth-fewest in the league.

With the defense likely to remain dominant and DeMeco Ryans still at head coach, the Texans should be in a position to once again feed their running backs carries in 2026, which should be good news for anyone who has Montgomery on their fantasy team.

Notable Players Still Available

Notable players remain available in 2026 NFL free agency.

Click here for a full list of available free agents

Most of the fantasy football conversations about 2026 free agency will focus on the biggest names, and that makes sense.

In fact, my friend Rich Hribar has in-depth looks at all the biggest moves, which you can find linked in the explore more table below.

I do want to highlight his recent look at the Kyler Murray signing as one to read, but they are all good.

I also had some quick thoughts on the biggest moves in our fantasy free agency tracker.

But often, the biggest fantasy winners and losers of free agency are not the guys who got the most money.

In fact, oftentimes the biggest winners and losers were not free agents at all.

Let’s dive a little deeper to identify some players who got a big fantasy boost over the last week, and some players who saw their fantasy stock dive.

For full contract details and more of a “real football” look at the biggest moves, see our NFL Free Agency Signing Tracker.

Explore more 2026 NFL Free Agency content:

2026 Free Agency Fantasy Winners

Winner: Kenneth Walker

Rich Hribar covered all the biggest moves of free agency, including Kenneth Walker, so I would suggest you go read what he has to say.

Click here for Rich’s analysis

I did want to add one more point to this clearly great fantasy opportunity for Walker.

Walker has always been an explosive back, gaining at least 10 yards on 12.1% of his rushing attempts.

That number was 14.9% last year despite facing a light box on just 17.2% of his attempts.

Overall, Seattle running backs saw the fifth-lowest rate of light boxes last season.

The Chiefs faced the seventh-highest rate of light boxes.

League-wide, the rate of explosive runs against boxes with seven or more defenders was 9.2%.

The rate of explosive runs against light boxes was 12.5%.

So, Walker consistently created big plays in a system that invited heavier boxes, which are tougher to get big gains against.

Now, he is going to an offense that has traditionally created an above-average rate of light boxes.

Seems pretty good.

Winner: Emeka Egbuka

This one seems pretty obvious with Mike Evans leaving for the San Francisco 49ers, but I wanted to highlight the difference in target rates for Emeka Egbuka with and without Evans on the field.

Egbuka had a rough end to his rookie season, in part because he rushed back from and was playing through a hamstring injury.

He also saw his target rate dip dramatically with Evans on the field.

On 378 routes with Evans off the field, Egbuka was targeted on 26.2% of his routes and saw 28% of Tampa’s overall targets.

He averaged 1.94 yards per route run, which would have ranked 18th among qualified receivers last season.

On 152 routes with Evans on the field, Egbuka was targeted on 18.4% of his routes with a 15% target share.

He averaged 1.34 yards per route, which would have ranked 59th among qualified receivers last season.

So, while this is an obvious win for Egbuka, I believe pointing out the magnitude of the difference is important.

Perhaps Chris Godwin can recover some form this season, and the Bucs have young options in the form of Jalen McMillan (also a winner) and Tez Johnson.

Still, Egbuka appears poised to be the clear No. 1 and see a WR1-level target share with Evans out of the picture.

Winner: D.J. Moore

The immediate reaction to the D.J. Moore trade focused on the seemingly high price for an older receiver coming off the worst season of his career.

All of that is fair.

Lost in that conversation, though, was just how much better Moore’s fantasy landscape became following the trade.

Among 141 receivers with at least 250 routes the last two seasons, Moore ranks 94th in off-target rate.

15.1% of his targets over the last two seasons have been deemed off target.

Bills receivers over that same timeframe are sixth in off-target rate at just 11.3%.

Moore is also entering a situation where the best pass catchers are not every-snap players.

Khalil Shakir ran a route on 74.9% of Buffalo's passing plays in the games he was active last season.

Dalton Kincaid’s route rate was way down at 49.8% even when he was active, although health issues likely limited him.

Still, his route rate was just 62.9% in 2024.

Moore should be more of an every-snap player, which almost by default makes him the favorite to lead the Bills in targets.

That might not be a ton of targets since the Bills have been relatively run heavy under now head coach Joe Brady, but that Brady connection is also worth mentioning as a positive.

Moore had quality seasons under Brady when both were in Carolina, averaging 78 catches for 1,022 yards and 5.5 touchdowns in their two years together.

Is Moore the go-to No. 1 receiver the Bills really need for Josh Allen?

Probably not.

Is this trade a big boost for Moore's fantasy value?

Absolutely.

Winner: Emanuel Wilson

Even though Klint Kubiak left to coach the Raiders, the Seahawks should remain a run-focused team under new OC Brian Fleury.

Fleury joined the team from the rival 49ers, where he worked from 2019 to 2025.

The 49ers have been a little more pass heavy over the last two seasons, but they still ranked 20th in neutral dropback rate last year.

Fleury was the run game coordinator in 2025.

Enter Emanuel Wilson, who was solid while filling in for Josh Jacobs in Green Bay over the last couple of years.

He has a 4.5 yards per carry average in his career with an 11.2% explosive run rate.

This is more about the opportunity, though.

Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL on January 17, which makes it very unlikely he is ready for Week 1.

George Holani and Kenny McIntosh are currently the only other backs on the depth chart.

The Seahawks could certainly add someone in the draft, but this is not a great class behind Jeremiyah Love, who will be long gone before the Seahawks make their first pick.

It is not far-fetched to imagine Wilson as the clear lead back on a team that wants to be near the top of the league in run rate for at least the first half of the season.

Wilson still has to dodge any additions the rest of the offseason and actually win the job, but he is suddenly in a great spot to return early fantasy value.

2026 Free Agency Fantasy Losers

Loser: De’Von Achane

Rich Hribar has already written about De’Von Achane in his deep dive into Malik Willis, so I am not going to spend too much time on him.

You should go check out his article.

But, to put it simply, Achane is less likely to be involved as a receiver with Willis at quarterback.

He already had concerning splits with (good) and without (bad) Tua Tagovailoa, and those are likely to be accentuated with a running quarterback.

33 quarterbacks qualified for passer rating last season.

Of those, 11 had a scramble rate above 6%, which is well below Willis’ 13.9% career mark but is still above the league average.

Those 11 quarterbacks targeted running backs on 16.4% of their attempts.

The other 22 quarterbacks targeted running backs on 18.8% of their attempts.

That is not the most scientific sample, but it simply illustrates a trend: Quarterbacks who scramble more tend to target running backs less.

Achane will likely remain a very good fantasy play, but hitting the absolute heights of a fantasy running back requires a level of passing game involvement he might not get with Willis at quarterback.

Loser: RJ Harvey

The Broncos were always expected to add to the backfield this offseason, but bringing back J.K. Dobbins is particularly worrisome for RJ Harvey since Dobbins was already the clear lead back over him when healthy last season.

Over the first 10 weeks of last season, Dobbins handled 72.9% of the running back carries.

He was effective in that role, averaging 5 yards per carry with an explosive run on 13.7% of his attempts (aka, being a healthy J.K. Dobbins).

He was only the RB22 in half-PPR points per game at that point because of his relative lack of involvement in the passing game and a lowly 4-touchdown total.

Still, the Broncos were a solid rushing team with Dobbins at the helm.

Dobbins was injured in Week 10, and Harvey took over as the lead back.

Harvey struggled to consistently produce in that role, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with a negative run on 20.8% of his attempts.

A second-round pick last year, the Broncos likely hoped they could use Dobbins for one year as a bridge and then hand the reins to Harvey.

They have now brought back Dobbins, and it is fair to wonder if they will look to make more additions to the backfield.

Over those first 10 weeks, Harvey was the RB31 in half-PPR scoring per game, and that includes the 6 touchdowns he scored on limited touches.

Harvey is a young player who could simply get better and take the full job.

Dobbins also has an extensive injury history.

Still, this is a net loss for Harvey.

Loser: Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren set new career highs in carries (211), rushing yards (958), and rushing touchdowns (6) last season while maintaining a solid role in the passing game (40-333-2).

He did not set the fantasy world on fire, finishing as the RB19 in per-game scoring in half PPR, but it was mostly what we hoped to see after Najee Harris moved on.

Now, Warren has traded Kenneth Gainwell for Rico Dowdle, a move that could push him back into the more passing-down role he occupied with Harris.

Dowdle is by no means a zero in the passing game – he has 99 targets over the last two seasons – but he ran a route on around 40% of his team’s dropbacks while working as the lead back in Dallas and Carolina.

Gainwell, for comparison, ran a route on 55.6% of his team’s dropbacks as the secondary option last season and led the Steelers in receptions.

Not the running backs.

He led the entire team.

Add in that Dowdle has a connection to new Steelers coach Mike McCarthy from their days together in Dallas, and it is fair to assume Dowdle has been brought in to be the early-down back.

That would push Warren back into the complementary role he filled when Harris was on the team.

He was good in that role, but it will be difficult for him to return consistent fantasy value if that is how the situation plays out.

Loser: Oronde Gadsden

2025 was a great debut season for Oronde Gadsden, but he struggled to keep his production going to close out the year.

That was partly due to route participation.

From Week 10 on, Gadsden was the TE16 in routes per team dropback, running a route on 65.2% of the Chargers’ passing plays.

He also did not earn targets at a high rate when he was on the field, getting the ball on 15.9% of his routes.

That is not a great combination for a fantasy tight end.

The offseason has brought some new concerns.

New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is expected to bring a stronger emphasis on the running game after the Chargers were fourth in neutral pass rate last year.

The Dolphins were 30th by that same metric last year, and they were 19th in 2024.

Los Angeles has also hinted at their plans in free agency.

They signed two players on the interior line, brought in blocking fullback Alec Ingold from the Dolphins, and spent big on blocking tight end Charlie Kolar.

Ingold and Kolar are big additions because the Dolphins played some of the highest rates of 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) in the league under McDaniel.

Nearly a third of Miami’s plays in his four years were from 21.

Gadsden is unlikely to be on the field in those looks, which will make it difficult for him to improve on that late-season route participation rate.

If things play out that way, then Gadsden will look like West Coast Dalton Kincaid, except that Kincaid has been targeted on 22.9% of his routes thus far in his career.

Unless Gadsden can start commanding a higher target rate per route, he is likely being overvalued in early fantasy drafts.

After being released by the Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray is joining the Minnesota Vikings on a one-year deal.

Let's examine the fantasy football implications of this move for Murray's fantasy value as well as how this signing affects Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Minnesota offense.

For full contract details and more of a “real football” look at the biggest moves, see our NFL Free Agency Signing Tracker.

Explore more 2026 NFL Free Agency content:

Kyler Murray Fantasy Value With the Minnesota Vikings

Miami added Malik Willis on Monday shortly after announcing that they would be releasing Tua Tagovailoa.

Willis joins a new staff in Miami that is made up of many familiar faces from his stint in Green Bay.

Jeff Hafley was hired as the new head coach, while Jon-Eric Sullivan was hired as the general manager.

Let's examine the fantasy football implications of this move for Willis' fantasy value as well as how this signing affects De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle.

For full contract details and more of a “real football” look at the biggest moves, see our NFL Free Agency Signing Tracker.

Explore more 2026 NFL Free Agency content:

Malik Willis Fantasy Value With the Miami Dolphins