Super Bowl 60 is here, with the Patriots and Seahawks competing for the biggest prize in football.

In this article, we will examine why you should bet the under on the New England Patriots' team total for Super Bowl 60, and why you should expect some early offense for the Seahawks.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl 60 Prediction: New England Patriots Under 20.5 Points (-125)

Why Bet Patriots Under 20.5 Points:

The Patriots had one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.

According to Sumer Sports, New England is tied for first in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.13), first in EPA per pass (0.29), tied for 17th in EPA per rush (-0.03), and fourth in success rate (46.93%).

They’re also stellar in traditional metrics.

Per TruMedia, New England is tied for third in yards per play (5.9), fifth in rushing yards per game (129.2), sixth in passing yards per game (235.1), tied for first in net yards per pass attempt (8.1), and tied for eighth in scoring offense (25.0 points per game).

The Patriots beat whoever was put in front of them.

However, their fourth-place schedule made for a fairly soft runout.

Understandably, they weren’t as fearsome against the top defenses.

New England played only five games against top-10 defenses in EPA.

Specifically, they faced the Saints in Week 6 (9th in EPA allowed per play), the Browns in Week 8 (5th in EPA allowed per play), the Chargers in the Wild Card Round (tied for 6th in EPA allowed per play), the Texans in the Divisional Round (1st in EPA allowed per play), and the Broncos in the Conference Championship Round (tied for 6th in EPA allowed per play).

The Patriots scored 25 points against the Saints, 32 against the Browns, 16 against the Chargers, 28 against the Texans, and 10 against the Broncos, averaging 22 points per game and a median of 25.

They held their own against quality defenses, but a pick-six inflated the 28 points against the Texans, and their other two efforts north of 20.5 points were much earlier in the season.

In three playoff games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play, New England went under their Super Bowl 60 team total of 20.5 points twice, and they have another challenging matchup against the Seahawks.

Seattle is second in EPA allowed per play (-0.12), eighth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.10), first in EPA allowed per rush (-0.15), and third in success rate allowed (39.25%).

They are also tied for third in yards allowed per play (4.7), first in yards allowed per rush (3.8), third in net yards allowed per pass (5.7), and first in points allowed per game (17.11).

They played six games against teams in the top 10 in EPA, all against the Rams (tied for 1st in EPA per play) and the 49ers (tied for 6th in EPA per play).

They held San Francisco to 17, 3, and 6 points in their three meetings, and Seattle yielded 21, 37, and 27 points to Los Angeles.

The familiarity of playing a division opponent creates an unusual dynamic.

Nevertheless, the Seahawks stuffed the 49ers in a locker, and the Rams were first in yards per play (6.1) and scoring offense (29.3 points per game) this season.

They’re a different animal than any other offense.

The Patriots’ offense isn’t as potent as LA’s, and their postseason form leaves something to be desired.

Moreover, New England’s last three games against top-10 defenses were after rookie left tackle Will Campbell returned from injured reserve.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Campbell played 452 pass-blocking snaps in 12 games before landing on IR.

He tallied a 76.1 PFF pass-blocking grade, allowing 5 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, 16 hurries, and 25 pressures in those 452 pass-blocking snaps.

The rookie tackle hasn’t matched that production since returning.

In four games and 127 pass-blocking snaps since returning from IR, Campbell has garnered a 45.5 PFF pass-blocking grade while coughing up 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 7 hurries, and 12 pressures.

As a result, Drake Maye has been under siege, absorbing precisely 5 sacks in each playoff contest.

The Patriots have averaged only 18 points per game with a median of 16 in three games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play since Campbell returned.

Additionally, the bossman, Warren Sharp, shared some eye-catching defensive tendencies deployed against Maye and the Patriots since the Bills rematch in Week 15.

The Seahawks aren’t a get-right matchup for New England’s offense, and Seattle’s elite defense should hold the Patriots under 20.5 points in Super Bowl 60.

Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Over 7.5 Points in the First Quarter (-102)

Why Bet Over 7.5 Points in the First Quarter:

Frankly, I went into analyzing the first quarter total expecting to prefer the under.

The Chiefs and Eagles combined for only 7 points in the first quarter of Super Bowl 59, and the Chiefs and 49ers produced 0 points in the first quarter of Super Bowl 58.

However, since Super Bowl 50, six of 10 games have produced over 7.5 points in the first quarter.

Those games averaged 7.3 points in the first quarter, with a median of 10.

Looking at New England’s and Seattle’s scoring in the first quarter against quality opponents tilts the scale toward taking the over.

In the Patriots’ five games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play, the first quarters yielded 20, 10, 0, 10, and 7 points, averaging 9.4 points with a median of 10.

Still, taking the over on 7.5 points in the first quarter goes against my expectations that the Patriots will score fewer than 20.5 points in the game, creating a negative correlation if New England does the heavy lifting in the first quarter.

Fortunately, the Seahawks have the more compelling case for getting the first quarter over 7.5 points, and they can do the bulk or all of the requisite scoring to make that a successful wager.

In Seattle’s six games against top-10 offenses in EPA per play this season, the first quarter has featured 7, 17, 10, 7, 17, and 13 points, averaging 11.8 points with a median of 11.5.

Four of those six games went over 7.5 points in the first quarter.

Seattle’s offense doesn’t have an easy assignment, either.

The Patriots are 11th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05) this year.

The Seahawks played six games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play, facing the Jaguars in Week 6, the Texans in Week 7, the Rams in Week 11, the Vikings in Week 13, the Rams in Week 16, and the Rams in the Conference Championship Round.

Those games had 6, 14, 17, 0, 10, and 13 points in the first quarter, averaging 10 points with a median of 11.5.

Thus, Seattle’s six games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play went over 7.5 points in the first quarter four times.

The Seahawks and Patriots can clear the low bar of exceeding 7.5 points in the first quarter.

Given my position on New England under 20.5 points in the game, Seattle will ideally do most of the scoring to send the first quarter over 7.5 points.

Explore More Super Bowl 60 Predictions & Analysis:

Super Bowl 60 between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks is set to crown a new champion, and with it comes one of the most coveted individual honors in sports: the Super Bowl MVP Award.

While quarterbacks have dominated the award in recent years, winning 12 of the last 16, smart bettors know there's value to be found beyond the obvious choices.

With the Seahawks favored and Sam Darnold carrying short odds, let's explore alternative MVP candidates that offer better value.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Best Super Bowl 60 MVP Bet: Drake Maye (+240 at BetMGM)

The NFL regular-season Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award has become a quarterback award.

The Super Bowl’s MVP Award hasn’t quite reached that level, but it’s not a far cry from it.

Jalen Hurts (2024) and Patrick Mahomes (2022 and 2023) have won the previous three Super Bowl MVP Awards as the quarterback of the Super Bowl Champion, and Mahomes also won the award for the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in 2019.

Seven of the last nine Super Bowl MVPs have been the game’s winning quarterback.

Moreover, the winning quarterback has claimed the hardware in 12 of the previous 16 Super Bowls.

Sadly, the oddsmakers understand the likelihood of a quarterback winning the award, sapping most of the value from betting on Sam Darnold to capture the honor for the favored Seahawks.

However, as long as Drake Maye’s odds to win the Super Bowl MVP Award are longer than New England’s moneyline odds, gamblers who plan to bet the Patriots moneyline can allocate some of that wager to Maye winning Super Bowl MVP.

Maye has eaten 15 sacks, thrown 2 interceptions, lost 3 fumbles, and averaged only 177.7 passing yards per game in the playoffs.

Nevertheless, Maye has made crucial plays with his legs, and his superb regular season demonstrated his excellence.

According to Sumer Sports, among quarterbacks with 100 snaps in the regular season, Maye was first in total expected points added (169.96 EPA), first in EPA per play (0.26), first in passing EPA (159.80), and 14th in rushing EPA (10.16).

If the dual-threat wunderkind from the regular season shows up and leads the Patriots to an upset victory in the Super Bowl, he’ll almost certainly be the game’s MVP.

Best Super Bowl 60 MVP Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550 at DraftKings)

Cooper Kupp was the last non-quarterback to win the Super Bowl MVP, doing so for the Rams in 2021.

The second-most recent non-quarterback to win the Super Bowl MVP was Julian Edelman in 2018.

Matthew Stafford completed 26 of 40 passes for 283 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI.

Kupp had 1 incomplete pass, a 7-yard run, 10 targets, 8 receptions, 92 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns, one of which was the game-winning score.

Kupp’s receiving yardage accounted for 32.5% of Stafford’s passing yardage, and he caught 2 of Stafford’s 3 touchdown passes.

The Rams also couldn’t generate much on the ground, with Cam Akers’ 21 rushing yards pacing the Rams and no one else reaching double digits.

Kupp was an integral piece of LA’s Super Bowl victory, but no one would have batted an eyelash at Stafford winning the Super Bowl MVP.

Still, Kupp’s large share of the passing game’s production and sequencing of his touchdowns, with the final securing the win for the Rams, earned him the honor.

Edelman’s Super Bowl LIII MVP Award was earned in a 13-3 victory.

Sony Michel scored the game’s only touchdown in a defensive slugfest.

Meanwhile, Edelman had a 34.3% target share, 10 receptions, 141 receiving yards, and an 8-yard rush.

His receiving yardage accounted for a blistering 53.8% of Tom Brady’s 262 passing yards.

Brady didn’t have a banner day, and the low-scoring contest opened the door for Edelman to secure the MVP with his massive receptions and yardage output.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba barbecued the Rams for 10 receptions, 153 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown on 12 targets in the NFC Championship Game.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 130 players with at least 250 routes in the regular season, JSN was second in air yards (1,794), first in air yards share (49.1%), first in target share (32.6%), second in targets per route run (0.33 TPRR), second in receiving yards per game (105.5), first in team receiving yardage market share (44.1%), second in yards per route run (3.74), and tied for sixth in receiving touchdowns (10).

The third-year pro was Seattle’s passing game in the regular season, and he was a monster in the NFC Championship Game shootout.

LA’s passing game in 2021 went through Kupp, and Seattle’s this year goes through JSN.

Seattle’s top-shelf defense could also make this a low-scoring Super Bowl, ala the 2018 Super Bowl when Edelman won the award.

Smith-Njigba offers gamblers much more bang for their buck than betting on Darnold to win the game’s MVP, especially since Darnold would likely need to have a big game using the team’s ancillary options to earn the award over JSN.

Longshot Super Bowl 60 MVP Bet: Marcus Jones (+10000 at FanDuel)

Only one non-quarterback or wideout has won a Super Bowl MVP in the last 10 years, two have done so in the past 20 years, and four have done so in the last 25 years.

All of those non-quarterbacks or wideouts were defenders.

A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis did in 1997.

Don’t waste money betting on a running back.

Circling back to defenders, Von Miller, Malcolm Smith, Dexter Jackson, and Ray Lewis are the defenders who’ve won Super Bowl MVPs since 2000.

Miller’s Broncos beat the Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50, Smith’s Seahawks stomped the Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII, Jackson’s Buccaneers squashed the Raiders 48-21, and Lewis’s Ravens crushed the Giants 34-7.

Miller had 2.5 sacks and forced 2 fumbles.

Smith had a nice 69-yard pick-six and a fumble recovery.

Jackson tallied 2 interceptions.

Lewis had a rather nondescript 5 tackles and 4 passes defensed.

For a defender to win the Super Bowl MVP, it likely needs to be an uncompetitive game, and the defender probably needs to make a splashy play or two.

The Patriots are underdogs, and if they were to blow out the Seahawks, they’d likely need a game-changing play on defense, special teams, or both.

Marcus Jones can make electrifying plays on defense and special teams.

His 3 three interceptions were second on the Patriots in the regular season, and he took one to the house.

He also had 3 fumble recoveries and 2.0 sacks.

Furthermore, Jones has a pick-six in the playoffs against C.J. Stroud.

Jones’s 2 punt return touchdowns were also tied for the NFL lead in the regular season.

He has 3 punt return touchdowns and 3 interceptions for touchdowns in 51 career games.

Heck, Jones even has 1 receiving touchdown.

Jones is dynamic with the ball in his hands and is a threat to take any fielded punt, interception, or fumble recovery to the house.

Jones’s odds to win the Super Bowl MVP are too long for a player of his ilk, and sprinkling a small wager on him to capture the award is appealing.

Click here for full MVP odds and historical trends

More Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet Coverage:

The AFC and NFC Championship Games for the 2025 NFL season are here!

Let's look at the two best bets for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

AFC Championship Game Best Bet Prediction: New England Patriots Over 23.5 Points (-113)

The Patriots had an outstanding season on offense.

According to Sumer Sports, they were first in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.13), first in EPA per pass (0.29), tied for 17th in EPA per rush (-0.03), and fourth in success rate (46.93%) in the regular season.

Unsurprisingly, traditional measures were sparkling, too.

Per Pro Football Reference, New England was tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and second in scoring offense (28.8 points per game).

The Pats stumbled out of the blocks offensively in the playoffs, tallying only 16 points against the Chargers.

They rebounded with aplomb in the Divisional Round by scoring 28 points, though one of their touchdowns came on a pick-six.

C.J. Stroud threw 4 interceptions and took 3 sacks, and Woody Marks lost a fumble.

Among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in the regular season, Stroud was tied for 10th in EPA per play (0.11).

He was miserable in the Wild Card Round against the Steelers.

Nevertheless, New England’s ability to stop him in the Divisional Round was impressive, and they’ll face a quarterback who didn’t attempt a pass in the regular season.

Jarrett Stidham’s action this season includes handing off three times and kneeling once against the Cowboys.

Stidham has 234 career dropbacks, 1,422 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, a 59.4% completion rate, 8 passing touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

His numbers have left something to be desired, and his 8 passing touchdowns and 8 interceptions were friendlier to his performance than his 2 big-time throws (1.0 BTT%) and 8 turnover-worthy plays (3.2 TWP%), via PFF.

Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 38 dropbacks this season, Stidham’s 1.0 BTT% would be dead last behind Dillon Gabriel’s 1.5 BTT%, and his 3.2 TWP% would tie Joe Flacco’s mark for 21st.

Stidham could completely faceplant against the Patriots, providing Drake Maye and the offense with short fields.

Alternatively, if Sean Payton is in his bag and gets the most out of Stidham, the Broncos could push New England to score.

Payton also likely won’t have a choice but lean on the pass.

As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Fantasy Football Worksheet, New England’s run defense has been stout with Milton Williams and Robert Spillane on the field, holding 124 running back runs to 3.3 yards per carry.

While Payton’s hand might be forced to lean on Stidham’s arm, the Patriots have pass-leaning tendencies.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, New England was fifth in pass rate over expectations (+5.4% PROE) in the regular season.

Conversely, the Broncos faced the fifth-highest PROE (+3.6%).

Denver’s pass defense is an excellent unit, ranking tied for sixth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.11) in the regular season.

They’re not flawless, though.

The Broncos faced five quarterbacks in the top-10 in EPA per pass this season, excluding Stroud’s injury-shortened start in Week 9.

Specifically, Denver faced Daniel Jones in Week 2, Dak Prescott in Week 8, Patrick Mahomes in Week 11, Jordan Love in Week 15, and Josh Allen in the Divisional Round.

Those teams recorded 29, 24, 19, 26, and 30 points.

Thus, they permitted 25.6 points per game in games against top-10 quarterbacks in EPA per play, and only one of those teams scored fewer than 23.5 points.

Even if the Broncos continue Maye’s postseason sack-and-turnover woes, that doesn’t preclude the Patriots from clearing 23.5 points.

The Bills had 5 turnovers, and Allen absorbed 3 sacks last week.

It didn’t matter. Buffalo still scored 30 points.

It doesn’t have to be pretty for the Patriots to eclipse 23.5 points for the 16th time this season on Sunday afternoon.

NFC Championship Game Best Bet Prediction: Los Angeles Rams +2.5 Points (-105)

The NFC Championship Game is an NFC West rubbermatch between the Rams and the Seahawks.

The Rams won the first matchup 21-19 in Week 11 in Los Angeles, and the Seahawks won the second matchup 38-37 in overtime in Seattle in Week 16.

The margins were razor-thin in the two previous matchups, and the spread is slight in the third matchup.

The Rams have an elite offense, and the Seahawks have an elite defense.

The Rams were tied for second in EPA per play (0.12) and first in success rate (50.46%) on offense in the regular season.

The Seahawks were second in EPA allowed per play (-0.12) and third in success rate allowed (39.25%) in the regular season.

LA’s offense versus Seattle’s defense is a battle of juggernauts.

Seattle’s offense versus Los Angeles’s defense is also intriguing, but not because they’re elite units.

Instead, the Seahawks were tied for 14th in EPA per play (0.02) and eighth in success rate (45.32%) in the regular season, and the Rams were 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05) and 11th in success rate allowed (41.60%).

When the matchups are this tight, the quarterback can be the deciding factor.

Matthew Stafford was tied for fourth in EPA per play (0.17), and Sam Darnold was tied for 13th in EPA per play (0.09) among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in the regular season.

Stafford was better in the regular season, but Darnold acquitted himself well.

Ultimately, how Stafford and Darnold do when pressured could be the difference in this contest.

Among 33 quarterbacks with 100 pressured dropbacks this year, Stafford was seventh in PFF’s passing grade (59.1), and Darnold was 17th (50.0).

Obviously, Stafford will face the superior defense on Sunday.

Sadly, Darnold might be saddled with shaky protection.

Mike Macdonald is optimistic that left tackle Charles Cross will play on Sunday.

However, he hasn’t practiced this week with a foot injury.

It gets worse. Backup tackles Josh Jones and Amari Kight also haven’t practiced this week.

Cross (77.9 PFF pass-blocking grade) and Jones (71.9 PFF pass-blocking grade) are Seattle’s highest graded pass blocking tackles and their highest graded pass blockers among offensive linemen with at least 100 pass-blocking snaps this year.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Rams were fourth in pressure rate (26.3%) in the regular season.

Darnold could be under siege if the Seahawks are down to their fourth-string left tackle.

However, even if a banged-up Cross can gut out his foot injury, he could struggle against a talented pass rush.

Darnold’s track record against Chris Shula’s defense is also discouraging for Seattle’s outlook this week.

With the Vikings last year, Darnold faced the Rams in Week 8 and in the Wild Card Round.

Darnold had a 66.2% completion rate, 485 passing yards, 5.06 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 97.3 quarterback rating in two losses to the Rams last season.

Darnold took 12 sacks (15.2% sack rate) and lost a fumble in those matchups.

Darnold split the matchups against the Rams this year.

However, he completed 65.4% of his passes for 549 yards, 3.57 ANY/A, 2 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 62.4 quarterback rating while taking 4 sacks.

In a likely tight matchup, taking the points with Stafford is appealing.

It’s even more appealing if Cross is unable to suit up.

The Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Patriots hosting the Texans and the Rams at the Bears.

Divisional Round Best Bet Prediction: New England Patriots Under 22.5 Points (-115)

The Patriots had one of the NFL’s best offenses this year by advanced and traditional measures.

According to Sumer Sports, New England was first in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.13), first in EPA per pass (0.29), and fourth in success rate (46.93%) in the regular season.

Per Pro Football Reference, the Patriots were also tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and second in scoring offense (28.8 points per game).

However, they weren’t bulletproof.

They were tied for 17th in EPA per rush (-0.03).

Drake Maye was outstanding in the regular season, ranking first in EPA per play (0.26) among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays.

Yet, like New England’s offense, he wasn’t perfect.

The second-year quarterback was 29th among 42 qualified quarterbacks in sack rate (8.72%).

Maye’s sack-aversion issues showed up against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round.

Los Angeles sacked him 5 times, resulting in a bloated 14.71% sack rate.

New England’s reliance on its passing attack carrying the offense could be problematic this week against the Texans.

Houston’s defense is a well-oiled machine.

The Texans were first in EPA allowed per play (-0.13), first in EPA allowed per pass (-0.19), tied for 11th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05), second in success rate allowed (37.97%), tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (4.8), third in turnovers forced (29), tied for seventh in sacks (47), and second in scoring defense (17.4 points per game).

Impressively, Houston racked up their sacks with the fifth-lowest blitz rate (18.9%) in the regular season.

New England’s offensive line will have its hands full with Houston’s defensive line.

Will Campbell could be a problem for the Patriots.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Campbell had a 76.1 pass-blocking grade and allowed only 5 sacks, 4 QB hits, 16 hurries, and 25 pressures on 452 pass-blocking snaps from Week 1 through Week 12 before he was injured.

Campbell has struggled since he returned in Week 18.

In two games since returning from a knee injury, Campbell has a 64.7 PFF pass-blocking grade and yielded 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 4 hurries, and 6 pressures on 64 pass-blocking snaps.

Unsurprisingly, Houston’s fearsome defense has traveled.

According to TruMedia, Houston has yielded only 260.4 yards per game, 4.5 yards per play, 80.8 rushing yards per game, 3.5 yards per rush, 179.7 passing yards per game, and 5.7 net yards per pass attempt with an 8.1% sack rate in nine road games this season.

They’ve held eight opponents to 17 points or fewer in nine games away from Houston this year.

The Seahawks were the only team to exceed 22.5 points against the Texans in their road games this year, scoring 27 against them in Seattle in Week 7.

According to StatHead, the Texans allowed 129 points (14.3 per game) in nine road games this year.

Houston’s elite defense should make Sunday’s game a low-scoring affair and hold the Patriots under 22.5 points.

Divisional Round Best Bet Prediction: Rams-Bears Over 48.5 Points (-110)

The total for Rams at Bears has come down since opening at 50.5 points.

Perhaps frigid temperatures have led to the slide in the game’s total, and how windy the game will be remains unclear.

Regardless, those concerned about the weather in Chicago in the Wild Card Round watched that game shoot out for 58 points.

Conversely, the Rams outlasted the Panthers in a 34-31 victory in Carolina.

The Bears and Rams have outstanding offenses.

The Bears were tied for sixth in EPA per play (0.07), tied for ninth in EPA per pass (0.08), fourth in EPA per rush (0.06), ninth in success rate (45.24%), ninth in yards per play (5.7), and ninth in scoring offense (25.9 points per game) in the regular season.

The Rams were even better.

Los Angeles was tied for second in EPA per play (0.12), third in EPA per pass (0.22), tied for 11th in EPA per rush (-0.01), first in success rate (50.46%), tied for first in yards per play (6.2), and first in scoring offense (30.5 points per game) in the regular season.

Both offenses have versatile attacks, can move the ball, and score points at a high level.

The defenses are less impressive, too.

The Rams were 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.06), 10th in EPA allowed per pass (-0.08), tied for 13th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.04), 11th in success rate (41.60%), tied for 12th in yards allowed per play (5.2), and 10th in scoring defense (20.4 points allowed per game).

The Rams have the better defense in this matchup, and it was only slightly above average.

Furthermore, they had hiccups down the stretch, including allowing 31 points to the Panthers in Week 13 and 31 to them in the Wild Card Round, 34 to the Lions in Week 15, 38 to the Seahawks in Week 16, and 27 to the Falcons in Week 17.

The Bears have a below-average defense.

Chicago was 21st in EPA allowed per play (0.02), tied for 17th in EPA allowed per pass (0.03), tied for 23rd in EPA allowed per rush (0), 26th in success rate allowed (46.24%), tied for 29th in yards allowed per play (6.0), and 23rd in scoring defense (24.4 points allowed per game).

Chicago’s defense also benefited immensely from forcing turnovers.

The Bears forced a league-high 33 turnovers in the regular season.

If the turnovers dry up, the Rams should have no problem moving the ball and scoring points on them.

Yet, if they continue to force turnovers at a high rate against the Rams, it can provide the Bears with short fields and easier scoring opportunities.

Either outcome is a win for the game’s scoring upside.

The game’s location is probably also a plus for the scoring potential.

Matthew Stafford is better equipped to succeed in a hostile road environment than Caleb Williams.

Per StatHead, Stafford completed 62.8% of his 349 pass attempts for 2,691 yards (269.1 per game), 7.8 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 27 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 102.7 quarterback rating in 10 road games this year.

Meanwhile, in nine home games this season, Williams completed 57.4% of his 303 pass attempts for 2,204 yards (244.9 per game), 7.4 ANY/A, 17 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 93.4 1uarterback rating.

The Bears averaged 26.2 points per game at home with a median of 26 this season.

The Rams averaged 32.1 points per game on the road with a median of 33.5.

The offenses should rule the roost in this game, and neither team can take its foot off the accelerator without risking opening the door to getting run down.

As a result, this game should go over 48.5 points.

Wild Card Weekend for the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Bills against the Jaguars and the Texans traveling to face the Steelers.

Wild Card Round Best Bet Prediction: Buffalo Bills Over 26.5 Points (-113)

The Bills want to run the football.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Buffalo was 28th in pass rate over expectations (-3.0% PROE) in the regular season.

James Cook captured the NFL’s rushing title this year, and the rushing attack is potent, ranking tied for first in expected points added (EPA) per rush (0.08).

It’s not unreasonable to feed Cook at Josh Allen’s passing expense, and Allen adds to the rushing game with his legs.

Nevertheless, Joe Brady will likely need to cut Allen loose in the Wild Card Round.

The Jaguars were first in rushing yards per game (85.6) allowed, fifth in yards per carry (3.94) allowed, and second in explosive run rate (2.7%) allowed in the regular season.

They weren’t perfect against the run, though.

The Jaguars were tied for 11th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05).

Jacksonville was also 21st in success rate (51.5%) allowed.

Thus, the Bills shouldn’t be bottled up entirely on the ground.

Again, they’ll likely take to the air more frequently, though.

The Jags faced the second-highest PROE (+4.4%) this season.

Jacksonville’s offense should also push the Bills to keep pace.

The Jaguars were tied for 11th in EPA per play (0.03), tied for 11th in EPA per pass (0.06), tied for 11th in EPA per rush (-0.01), and tied for 14th in success rate (43.73%) in the regular season.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Jaguars finished the regular season sixth in scoring offense (27.9 points per game).

Additionally, the Jaguars cranked up the pass down the stretch. Since Week 14, Jacksonville was first in PROE (+8.6%).

The Jaguars airing it out and coaxing the Bills to do the same with their pass-funnel defense would be a boon to the game’s scoring potential.

Furthermore, the Bills have cooked on offense when Allen has ripped it. According to StatHead, Allen has attempted at least 30 passes in 16 games since last year, including the postseason.

The Bills exceeded 26.5 points in 11 of those 16 contests.

Buffalo has also hung points in the postseason.

In Allen’s 13 career playoff starts, the Bills have surpassed 26.5 points eight times, and he fell short of that mark in three of his first four postseason starts.

The Bills went over 26.5 points in all three of their playoff games last year, and they’ve done so in seven of their last nine postseason games.

The Bills will have their hands full against the hot Jaguars, but Buffalo’s offense should hold up its end of the bargain and clear 26.5 points on Sunday.

Wild Card Round Best Bet Prediction: Houston Texans Under 20.5 Points (-118)

The Texans are road favorites against the AFC North champion Steelers.

Houston’s defense is a juggernaut, but the offense is unimpressive.

Houston is tied for 21st in EPA per play (-0.02), tied for 14th in EPA per pass (0.04), 30th in EPA per rush (-0.09), 28th in success rate (40.90%), tied for 23rd in yards per play (5.1), and 13th in scoring offense (23.8 points per game).

The Steelers have an inconsistent defense, but it has played pretty well at home.

According to StatHead, the Steelers have allowed 172 points (21.5 per game), 1,650 passing yards (206.25 per game), 6.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 11 passing touchdowns, 707 rushing yards (88.37 per game), 3.7 yards per carry, and 7 rushing touchdowns in eight home games this season.

The Seahawks (31 points in Week 2), Packers (35 points in Week 8), Bills (26 points in Week 13), and Ravens (24 points in Week 18) cleared 20.5 points against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

However, the Steelers held the Browns (9 points in Week 6), the Colts (20 points in Week 9), the Bengals (12 points in Week 11), and the Dolphins (15 points in Week 15) under 20.5 points at Acrisure Stadium.

Houston’s offense is closer in quality to the teams in the latter group than to those in the former.

Moreover, C.J. Stroud has some eye-catching splits.

According to Pro Football Reference, in 15 regular-season games outdoors in his career, Stroud has completed just 59% of his 466 pass attempts for 2,994 yards (199.6 per game), 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 17 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and an 83.9 quarterback rating with 40 sacks and 4 fumbles lost.

The Texans also mustered only 10 points against the Ravens in Baltimore in the Divisional Round for the 2023 season and 14 points against the Chiefs in Kansas City in the Divisional Round for the 2024 season in Stroud’s only two outdoor games in the playoffs.

Stroud started four games outdoors this year.

The Texans scored 10 points against the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 3, 44 against the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 5, 19 against the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 7, and 20 against the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 14.

So, the Texans averaged 23.25 points per game in Stroud’s four games outdoors this year, but they went under 20.5 points three times, with a median of 19.5 points.

Stroud’s struggles outside in his career will make it difficult for the Texans to surpass 20.5 points against the Steelers.

As a result, the under for their team total is an alluring bet.

Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Packers against the Vikings and the Bears taking on the Lions.

Week 18 Best Bet Prediction: Green Bay Packers Under 12.5 Points (+105)

The Packers are locked into the NFC’s No. 7 seed, and they haven’t hidden their top priority this week.

It’s not earning a victory. Their primary objective is to preserve their health for the playoffs.

Jordan Love has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol. Malik Willis has been able to log a pair of limited-participation practices.

Nevertheless, the Packers will start Clayton Tune against Minnesota’s talented and aggressive defense.

Tune is ill-equipped to handle Brian Flores‘ defense.

Tune appeared in seven games and started one in his rookie campaign in 2023, and he was 70th out of 70 quarterbacks with at least 25 plays in EPA per play (-0.98).

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Tune has a 55.6% completion rate, 78 passing yards, 2.9 yards per pass attempt, 0 big-time throws, 3 turnover-worthy plays (7.1 TWP%), 8 sacks, and a 40.0% pressure-to-sack (P2S%) on 40 dropbacks in his career.

Context is crucial, and it’s unkind to Tune.

Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks in 2025, Tune’s 7.1 TWP% and 40.0 P2S% would rank 42nd and 42nd, better than only Brady Cook’s 8.2 TWP% and 41.9 P2S%.

Tune will be unable to lean heavily on Josh Jacobs since the running back won’t play much, if at all, this week.

The Tune-led Packers would struggle to move the ball or score points on even an average NFL defense, and the Vikings are better than that.

The Vikings are tied for third in EPA per play allowed (-0.10), third in EPA per pass allowed (-0.13), tied for sixth in EPA per rush allowed (-0.07), and fifth in success rate allowed (40.82%).

According to Pro Football Reference, Minnesota is also fifth in yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for eighth in turnovers forced (21), first in blitz rate (43.8%), tied for fifth in hurry rate (10.0%), tied for fifth in quarterback knockdown rate (11.0%), third in pressure rate (28.3%), tied for sixth in sacks (45), and tied for ninth in scoring defense (20.6 points per game).

The Vikings are also in pristine form.

Since Week 14, they’ve allowed 0 points to the Commanders in Minnesota, 26 to the Cowboys in Dallas, 13 to the Giants in New Jersey, and 10 to the Lions in Minnesota.

Thus, they’ve held their previous two opponents in Minnesota under 12.5 points, and neither the Commanders nor the Lions were led by Tune.

Minnesota should give Green Bay’s third-string quarterback and offense as a whole fits this week and hold them under 12.5 points.

Week 18 Best Bet Prediction: Chicago Bears -3.0 (-104)

The Bears have no motivation issues this week, securing the NFC’s No. 2 seed with a victory against the visiting Lions.

They lost a heartbreaking shootout against the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 16.

Fortunately, they’re in a favorable bounce-back spot against the Lions this week.

Dan Campbell would likely relish the opportunity to be a spoiler against Ben Johnson. That will be a tall task with Detroit’s injury-ravaged present roster.

Brian Branch, Terrion Arnold, and Kerby Joseph are already on the injured reserve.

Alex Anzalone and Thomas Harper are in the NFL’s concussion protocol, but both upgraded from non-participation on Wednesday to limited participation on Thursday.

Of course, that doesn’t ensure either will clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s action.

Alim McNeill’s outlook is potentially even worse.

He hasn’t practiced this week because of an abdominal injury that knocked him out of the Christmas defeat to the Vikings after only 15 snaps.

Detroit’s injuries aren’t limited to the defensive side of the ball.

Unfortunately, they’ve navigated multiple injuries along the offensive line lately, and Penei Sewell is a new addition to the injury report, missing Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices with an ankle injury.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is also banged up.

He didn’t practice on Wednesday but was limited with a knee and ankle designation on Thursday, and The Sun God would like to suit up this week.

Of course, being active doesn’t mean St. Brown will play an entire allotment of snaps.

The Lions are a mash unit.

Moreover, Jared Goff is at his best at home and indoors. He’s on the road and outdoors this week.

According to TruMedia, Goff is 11-6 with a 67.0% completion rate, 259.9 passing yards per game, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 30 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 31 sacks taken in 17 games outdoors since 2023.

It will be a cold game in Chicago, too.

Goff has underwhelmed in the cold.

He has a 5-3-1 record, 60.3% completion rate, 233.1 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 16 sacks taken, and 89.1 quarterback rating in nine games with a kickoff temperature of 45 degrees or colder since 2021.

Chicago has the offensive firepower to put itself out of Goff’s reach to keep up.

The Bears are tied for seventh in EPA per play (0.08), tied for ninth in EPA per pass (0.09), fourth in EPA per rush (0.06), tied for ninth in yards per play (5.7), first in turnovers (10), fourth in sacks allowed (23), and 10th in scoring offense (26.6 points per game).

Chicago’s defense isn’t as good as its offense.

Nonetheless, they’re tied for 17th in EPA allowed per play (0.01). Coincidentally, the Bears and Lions are tied for 22nd in scoring defense (24.8 points per game).

Injuries to the Lions and the quality of Chicago’s offense should tilt the scales toward the Bears beating the Lions by more than 3 points in a game they need to lock up the NFC’s No. 2 seed.

Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Dolphins against the Bucs and the Saints against the Titans.

Week 17 Best Bet Prediction: Miami Dolphins Under 19.5 Points (+100)

The Buccaneers are in a tailspin, losing six of their last seven games coming out of a Week 9 bye.

If they lose on Sunday and the Panthers upset the visiting Seahawks, Carolina will clinch the NFC South before its Week 18 rematch with Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers shouldn’t be lacking for motivation.

Fortunately, they will also draw Quinn Ewers in his second career start.

The Dolphins scored 21 points in his first career start in Week 16, but that comes with the caveat of facing the Bengals.

Ewers’ assignment will be vastly different this week.

The Bengals have a lousy defense.

According to Sumer Sports, Cincinnati is tied for 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (0.14), 30th in EPA allowed per pass (0.21), 29th in EPA allowed per rush (0.07), and 32nd in success rate allowed (48.30%).

The Buccaneers don’t have a stout defense in all facets.

They’re tied for 17th in EPA allowed per play (0.01), tied for 20th in EPA allowed per pass (0.06), tied for fifth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.07), and 21st in success rate allowed (44.99%).

Tampa Bay’s defense is below average against the pass but better than Cincinnati’s, and their defense is a top-10 unit against the run, which will make it difficult for the Dolphins to pivot to a run-heavy approach with De’Von Achane to protect Ewers.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Dolphins were tied for 27th in pass rate over expectations (-13.7% PROE) in Week 16.

The Buccaneers have faced the third-highest PROE (+4.2%) this season and are tied for the fourth-highest PROE (+4.9%) faced since Week 12.

Whether the Dolphins stubbornly run against a stout pass-funnel defense or ask more from Ewers, they’ll likely have difficulty scoring points.

Moreover, Ewers should get ready for a blitz-heavy defense after facing the polar opposite last week.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Bengals are dead last in blitz rate (17.1%) this year, and the Buccaneers are fifth in blitz rate (29.6%).

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Ewers has only 8 dropbacks against the blitz this year, and he completed 4 of 6 passes for 71 yards.

However, Ewers was also sacked twice (25%) on those dropbacks against the blitz.

Ewers’ 2024 numbers against the blitz in his final collegiate season weren’t particularly impressive, either.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), 94 FBS quarterbacks had at least 75 blitzed dropbacks in 2024, and Ewers was 34th in their passing grade (72.9), 57th in turnover-worthy play rate (3.3 TWP%), and tied for 66th in pressure-to-sack rate (22.5 P2S%).

After a Charmin-soft greeting to the NFL in Week 16, Todd Bowles will crank up the degree of difficulty for Ewers this week.

Finally, according to StatHead, Bowles has faced 20 starting rookie quarterbacks as Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator or head coach since 2019, and he’s gone 12-8, holding seven of those 12 losing opponents under 20 points.

The favored and desperate Buccaneers should hold Ewers and the Dolphins under 19.5 points on Sunday.

Week 17 Best Bet Prediction: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-114)

The scrappy Saints head to Tennessee this weekend on a three-game winning streak, and the Titans just beat the visiting Chiefs last week.

If someone awoke from a coma that started just before Week 1 of the NFL season, they’d likely guess a battle of rookie quarterbacks Cam Ward and Tyler Shough would favor the 2025 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick.

They’d be wrong.

Among 45 quarterbacks with 100 plays this season, Shough is 32nd in EPA per play (-0.04), and Ward is 40th (-0.17).

Obviously, a negative EPA for Shough isn’t a reason for a celebration, but he’s played much better after two relief appearances and his first career start.

In six subsequent starts, he has recorded a 68.9% completion rate, 248 passing yards per game, 7.12 yards per pass attempt, 5.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 6 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a 92.8 quarterback rating.

He’s played adequately and faces a pass-funnel defense this week.

In fact, the Titans have faced a league-high +6.3% PROE this year and faced the second-highest PROE (+6.6%) since Week 12.

The Saints lost Devin Neal to the injured reserve after Week 15, and Alvin Kamara is trending toward his fifth straight absence.

The Saints had a league-high +16.8% PROE last week, and they’re 10th in PROE (+2.0%) since Week 12.

Being encouraged to pass at the expense of their lousy backfield and rushing attack would be a plus for the Saints.

Shough also has a cushy assignment through the air.

The Titans are tied for 27th in EPA allowed per pass (0.14) this year.

New Orleans should have some success on offense.

Meanwhile, the Titans are 30th in EPA per play (-0.15), 31st in EPA per pass (-0.20), 28th in EPA per rush (-0.07), and 31st in success rate (37.88%).

They don’t have a cupcake to feast on, either.

Instead, the Saints are 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05), tied for 11th in EPA allowed per pass (-0.02), fourth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.08), and 11th in success rate allowed (42.07%).

New Orleans has an above-average defense against the run and pass.

So, the Saints have an advantage at quarterback, and their defense is the best unit in this matchup.

They’ve won all three games on their three-game win streak by at least 3 points, and they should extend their winning streak to four games and beat the Titans by at least 3 points.

The NFL Christmas Day slate is here!

There are great matchups throughout the day, but let's focus on the Commanders against the Cowboys and the Vikings facing the Lions.

Christmas Day Best Bet Prediction: Washington Commanders Under 21.5 Points (-120)

The Commanders are banged up.

Jayden Daniels has been shut down for the rest of the year, and Marcus Mariota hasn’t practiced this week after getting stitches in his hand.

Josh Johnson relieved Mariota last week against the Eagles, and he’s in line to start if Mariota is ruled out.

The organization also signed Jeff Driskel off the Cardinals practice squad, which could be interpreted as a sign that they don’t anticipate having Mariota available this week.

The injuries don’t stop at the quarterback position, either.

Starting OG Sam Cosmi was placed on the injured reserve. Starting LT Laremy Tunsil was out last week, and he’s started the week with two missed practices.

As a cherry on top, talented punt returner Jaylin Lane was also placed on the IR.

Lane has two punt returns for touchdowns on 23 punt returns in his rookie season, which shouldn’t be entirely overlooked for Washington’s scoring outlook this week.

According to Sumer Sports, among 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this year, Mariota is tied for 25th in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.01).

Johnson has -0.48 EPA per play on 11 plays this year, and the 39-year-old quarterback last saw extensive action in 2021, when he attempted 45 passes for the Jets and 40 for the Ravens.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), on 458 career dropbacks dating back to 2009, Johnson has 12 big-time throws (3.0 BTT%), 17 turnover-worthy plays (3.5 TWP%), a 57.9% completion rate, and 6.4 yards per pass attempt.

In Johnson’s nine career starts, his teams have never scored more than 21 points.

The Commanders scored only 18 points against the Eagles last week.

So, even if Mariota can suit up through his hand injury, he’ll be doing so behind a banged-up offensive line after a clunker performance.

Quinnen Williams has been estimated as limited in practice through Tuesday.

If he plays, the Commanders are unlikely to find much success by pivoting to a run-heavy approach.

Williams made his debut with the Cowboys in Week 11.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Cowboys have faced an 8.1% pass rate over expectations (PROE) since Week 11, the second-highest mark in the league.

Furthermore, they’ve allowed only 91.2 rushing yards per game (27th), 4.02 yards per carry (tied for 22nd), and a 46.3% success rate (24th) during that period.

The Commanders are ill-equipped to exploit Dallas’s leaky secondary.

As a result, they’ll likely go under 21.5 points on Christmas.

Christmas Day Best Bet Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Under 43.5 Points (-110)

The Lions lost a heartbreaking shootout last week to the Steelers, and the Vikings won a low-scoring slugfest against the lowly Giants in Week 16.

Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense woke up Pittsburgh’s offense, but the penetrable force of their defense will meet the dull knight of a Max Brosmer-led offense.

Among 51 quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season, Brosmer is dead last in EPA per play (-0.66).

He was a trainwreck against the Seahawks in his only career start.

Among 51 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Brosmer is also PFF’s lowest-graded passer, and he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate (7.5).

Drawing the Seahawks in Seattle for his first start was brutal, but he’s also an undrafted rookie from this year’s NFL Draft class.

Brosmer’s second start comes against a less imposing defense, but it will be behind an offensive line without Christian Darrisaw and Ryan Kelly.

The Vikings will also likely be without Jordan Mason.

Mason injured his ankle early last week, and he hasn’t practiced this week.

Aaron Jones also tweaked his ankle against the Giants, but he was able to play through the issue and logged 21 carries, 85 rushing yards, 3 targets, 2 receptions, and 8 receiving yards.

Jones' ability to handle a hefty workload last week and opening the week with two limited practice participation estimates bode well for his availability this week.

Nevertheless, among 59 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Jones is 27th in yards per carry (4.34), 20th in explosive run rate (4.4%), 25th in success rate (51.8%), and 25th in stuff rate (43.0%).

Overloading Jones with a bell-cow workload on an ankle at less than 100% is unlikely to produce impressive production.

Kevin O’Connell’s options are to lean into Brosmer’s arm or lean on a backfield without Mason and with Jones at less than 100%, and either will be done behind an offensive line without Darrisaw and Kelly. Yuck.

The Lions should have some success on Christmas.

According to StatHead, in five starts against the Brian Flores-led Vikings defenses since 2023, Jared Goff has recorded a 76.0% completion rate, 1,372 passing yards, 7.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 8 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 110.7 quarterback rating.

Goff’s previous success against Flores is an interesting data point for Detroit’s scoring potential.

Yet, as Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 17 Fantasy Football Worksheet, Goff was pressured on 42.9% of his dropbacks against the Vikings earlier this year.

The Lions have injuries along the offensive line.

Without Graham Glasnow, Christian Mahogany, and Taylor Decker in Week 16 against the Steelers, who were without T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig, Goff was pressured on 38.6% of his dropbacks.

The Lions didn’t practice on Monday or Tuesday, but Glasnow was projected as a full participant on Tuesday.

Mahogany and Decker were listed as limited participants on Tuesday.

Any of their returns would help Detroit’s offense, but it remains to be seen who will be healthy along their offensive line.

One way Dan Campbell could mitigate pressure on Goff is to lean on the running game.

Unfortunately, Detroit’s rushing attack has been boom-or-bust lately.

Since Week 12, the Lions are 20th in rushing yards per game (110.0), second in explosive run rate (7.7%), 27th in success rate (46.2%), and 28th in stuff rate (48.5%).

There are nits to pick on Detroit’s offense against an aggressive defense.

The blemishes are enough to question whether the Lions can light up the scoreboard against Flores’s aggressive defense, and they’d likely need to do the heavy lifting opposite the Brosmer-led Vikings to exceed the game’s total of 43.5 points.

Thus, 43.5 points is probably a bar too high for the Lions and Vikings to clear on Thursday.

Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Broncos against the Jaguars and the Lions facing the Steelers.

Week 16 Best Bet Prediction: Denver Broncos -3 (-105)

The Broncos and Jaguars are their respective division leaders, and Denver is currently the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

The game could be a playoff preview, and the location played a critical role in choosing to lay the 3 points with the Broncos.

Bo Nix hasn’t been a model of consistency in his young career. However, he’s played markedly better at home than on the road.

According to StatHead, in 17 road games, Nix has a 64.3% completion rate, 3,396 passing yards (199.8 per game), 5.56 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), 20 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 4.19% sack rate, a 41.8% success rate, and an 87.1 quarterback rating.

Conversely, in 15 home games, Nix has a 65.3% completion rate, 3,779 yards (251.9 per game), a 6.82 ANY/A, 33 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a 3.15% sack rate, and a 96.6 quarterback rating.

Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t performed as well on the road as at home this season.

T-Law has tallied 237.8 passing yards per game, 13 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 1 fumble lost, and a 90.1 quarterback rating in eight home games.

He has logged 218 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and an 84.7 quarterback rating in six road tilts.

Lawrence will be greeted by a fearsome defense in Denver this week.

According to Sumer Sports, the Broncos are eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.07), tied for sixth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.08), 12th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05), and second in success rate allowed (37.53%).

The Jaguars also have a talented defense, ranking fourth in EPA allowed per play (-0.09) and eighth in success rate allowed (41.60%).

However, they haven’t done as well at keeping teams off the scoreboard on the road as at home.

Jacksonville has coughed up 144 points (24 per game) in six road games this year, yielding a median of 26.5.

The Jags are 4-2 on the road, with wins against the Titans, 49ers, Cardinals, and Raiders and losses by 4 points to the Bengals in Week 2 and 7 points to the Davis Mills-led Texans in Week 10.

The Broncos are monsters at home.

As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Worksheet, Denver is the final unbeaten team at home this season with a 7-0 record.

Only one of their victories was by fewer than 3 points this year.

The Broncos should be able to take advantage of their friendly home confines and beat the Jaguars by more than 3 points this week.

Week 16 Best Bet Prediction: Detroit Lions Over 30.5 Points (-105)

The Lions have a wagon for an offense.

Detroit is fourth in EPA per play (0.11), tied for fourth in EPA per pass (0.19), tied for 10th in EPA per rush (0), and 11th in success rate (45.10%).

Additionally, according to Pro Football Reference, the Lions are tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and first in scoring offense (30.6).

Detroit has kicked its scoring up a notch at home.

Per StatHead, they’ve scored 236 points (33.7 per game) in seven home games, with a median of 34.

The Lions have cleared 30.5 points in four home games this season.

Unsurprisingly, Jared Goff has balled out at home.

He has a 70.4% completion rate, 267.3 passing yards per game, 8.00 ANY/A, 15 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a 112.5 quarterback rating in seven home games.

Goff’s life will likely be easier this week than facing a fully stocked defense for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig haven’t practiced for Week 16.

They’re Pittsburgh’s best pass rushers.

The Steelers also have substantial on-off splits with Watt, allowing a 70.9% completion rate (31st), a league-high 8.7 yards per attempt, and a 5.5% touchdown rate (20th) with Watt off the field, per Rich’s research in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Worksheet.

Derrick Harmon is trending toward returning this week after logging full practices on Wednesday and Thursday.

He’ll help Pittsburgh’s run defense, which could embolden Dan Campbell to dial up the pass more often, a development that would be ideal for Detroit’s scoring outlook.

Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense could also force the offense to keep pouring it on as well.

The Lions have allowed four consecutive opponents to score at least 27 points, and five of their last seven opponents have tallied at least 27 points.

Detroit’s lethal offense on the other side of their leaky defense against a potentially Watt-less and Herbig-less Steelers defense is a recipe for the Lions to score more than 30.5 points this week.

Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Giants against the Commanders and the Cardinals facing the Texans.

Week 15 Best Bet Prediction: New York Giants Over 24.5 Points (+102)

The Giants are coming out of their Week 14 bye and are greeted by a cushy matchup.

The Commanders have a putrid defense by every measure.

According to Sumer Sports, the Commanders are tied for 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (0.14), 32nd in EPA allowed per pass (0.23), 25th in EPA allowed per rush (0.02), and 28th in success rate allowed (46.89%).

The traditional measures aren’t any friendlier.

Per Pro Football Reference, the Commanders are 31st in yards allowed per play (6.2), 32nd in net yards allowed per pass (7.5), tied for 26th in yards allowed per rush (4.7), tied for 30th in turnovers forced (7), 23rd in pressure rate (19.5%), and 28th in scoring defense (27.5 points per game).

Moreover, as Rich Hribar pointed out in The Worksheet, Washington has allowed the most yards per play (6.3) on early downs.

They’re 30th in yards allowed per game (382.5) and points allowed per drive (2.69).

The Commanders can’t stop anyone, and their propensity to cough up yards on early downs should keep Jaxson Dart out of unfavorable third-down situations.

Speaking of Dart, he’s having a stellar rookie season.

Among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year, Dart is 15th in EPA per play (0.07).

Big Blue’s total offensive marks are all over the place, with some positives and some negatives.

On the plus side, they’re tied for 13th in EPA per play.

However, the G-Men are only 26th in success rate (41.29%) and 23rd in scoring offense (21.5 points per game).

In addition, they sit midpack in yards per play (5.3), tying for 15th.

The matchup with the Commanders, and being recharged from the bye, should bring out the best in the Giants.

Washington has allowed back-to-back opponents to exceed 24.5 points, and they’ve allowed seven of their last eight opponents to clear that threshold.

The only outlier was when the Dolphins scored just 16 points.

However, that game comes with the caveat that it was played abroad.

Therefore, the Commanders have allowed seven consecutive opponents in games in the US to clear 24.5 points.

The Giants will need to keep their foot mashed down on the accelerator since their defense is also lousy.

They are 29th in EPA allowed per play (0.12), 27th in success rate allowed (46.63%), tied for 28th in yards allowed per play (6.0), 21st in pressure rate (20.8%), and 30th in scoring defense (28.2 points per game).

This game has shootout written all over it, and the Giants should hold up their end of the bargain by surpassing 24.5 points.

Week 15 Best Bet Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Under 16.5 Points (-120)

The Jacoby Brissett experience has been fun for fantasy football, but the Cardinals are hardly an offensive juggernaut.

Brissett also hasn’t been a world-beater.

The veteran signal-caller is tied for 20th in EPA per play (0.02) among 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year.

Brissett has piled up garbage-time yardage, but the offense is below average.

The Cardinals are tied for 20th in EPA per play (-0.02), tied for 15th in EPA per pass (0.01), tied for 26th in EPA per rush (-0.08), 15th in success rate (43.51%), tied for 22nd in yards per play (5.1), tied for 25th in net yards per pass attempt (5.6), 17th in yards per rush (4.3), 16th in turnovers (16), and 21st in scoring offense (21.7 points per game).

Sadly for the Cardinals, starting left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is already ruled out for this week.

Among 65 offensive tackles with at least 400 snaps this year, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks Johnson 15th in their pass-blocking grade and 21st in their run-blocking grade.

Undrafted rookie Josh Fryar is the next person up and a substantial downgrade from Johnson.

The timing of an injury on the offensive line couldn’t be worse for Arizona’s one-dimensional offense.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Cardinals are first in pass rate over expectations (8.8% PROE) this season, and they have a 9.4% PROE with Brissett as the starter.

Meanwhile, the Texans have an elite defense.

Houston is first in EPA allowed per play (-0.15), first in EPA allowed per pass (-0.21), tied for 11th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05), third in success rate allowed (37.67%), tied for third in yards allowed per play (4.6), tied for first in net yards allowed per pass (5.0), tied for 11th in yards allowed per rush (4.1), fourth in turnovers forced (22), tied for sixth in sacks (36), and first in scoring defense (16.0 points per game).

If the Texans are somewhat susceptible anywhere, it’s against the run, and the Cardinals don’t have the horses to exploit that.

Instead, Arizona’s league-high PROE will run into the league-best pass defense.

Arizona’s scoring has also hit the skids.

They’ve scored precisely 17 points in back-to-back games, their lowest total in Brissett’s starts.

A 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff in Houston against their elite defense isn’t the time for the Cardinals to turn it around, and they should fall short of 16.5 points this week.

Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Dolphins against the Jets and the Browns facing the Titans.

Week 14 Best Bet Prediction: Miami Dolphins Under 21.5 Points (-108)

To Mike McDaniel’s credit, the Dolphins are playing hard for him and racking up wins, winning three straight contests and four of their past five after starting the year 1-6.

Nevertheless, the offense has been inconsistent.

It starts at the top with Tua Tagovailoa.

According to Sumer Sports, among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps this year, Tagovailoa is tied with Tyrod Taylor in expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.01).

It’s unlikely Tua and Taylor will get into a shootout, suffice to say.

Miami’s offense as a whole is also below average.

They’re tied for 19th in EPA per play (-0.02) and 28th in success rate (41.22%).

The Dolphins also have sizable home-road splits, as Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 14 Worksheet.

Miami is 27th in yards per play on the road (4.6) this season, versus seventh at home (5.9).

The Dolphins are just 24th in scoring offense, averaging 20.6 points per game.

Miami has scored fewer than 21.5 points in back-to-back games, three of their previous four, and four of their last six.

They’ve gone under that number in three of five road games, averaging 18.6 points per game and a median of 21.

The game’s slight spread should also mean the clock runs constantly in this AFC East matchup on Sunday.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Dolphins are 29th in pass rate over expectations (-2.5% PROE) this season, and the Jets are tied for last (-5.3%).

Moreover, the Dolphins have posted a -6.2% PROE since Week 9, while the Jets have posted an -8.1% PROE in that period.

Ultimately, both teams should be content running the ball, and the setup isn’t favorable for a high-scoring effort from either side.

As a result, the Dolphins should go under 21.5 points this week.

Week 14 Best Bet Prediction: Tennessee Titans Under 14.5 Points (-110)

Let’s start with the most significant threat to the Titans going under 14.5 points this week.

Cleveland’s offense is lousy, and its special teams were a train wreck last week.

The 49ers scored 26 points in Week 13 in large part because of Cleveland’s special teams miscues.

The Browns surrendered a 66-yard punt return to Skyy Moore, Malachi Corley fielded a kickoff and went out of bounds at the five-yard line, and Gage Larvadain muffed a punt that the 49ers fielded on Cleveland’s 18-yard line.

Despite the margins being thin for such a low under, Cleveland’s fierce defense should have no trouble bottling up the Titans.

Cam Ward is 40th among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in EPA per play (-0.20).

Among 39 quarterbacks with 150 dropbacks this season, Ward is 36th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) passing grade and 39th in pressure-to-sack rate (27.1 P2S%).

Ward’s inability to avoid taking sacks under pressure is a nightmare for a matchup against Myles Garrett and company.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Browns are fifth in pressure rate (26.5%) and second in sacks (43).

Circling back to Tennessee’s offense, they’re 31st in EPA per play (-0.20), 31st in success rate (36.64%), tied for last in yards per play (4.2), and 32nd in scoring offense (14.2 points per game).

There is no positive way to frame Tennessee’s offense this season.

Conversely, the Browns have a superb defense, and it’s especially lethal at home.

According to Tru Media, the Browns have allowed only 4.4 yards per play, 99.7 rushing yards per game, 3.7 yards per rush, 157.3 passing yards per game, and 5.7 net yards per pass attempt at home this year, tallying an interception rate of 3.6% and sack rate of 12.4%.

In five games at Huntington Bank Field this season, the Browns have held the Bengals to 17 points, the Packers to 10, the Dolphins to 6, the Ravens to 23, and the 49ers to 26.

Thus, they’ve allowed an average of 16.4 points per game with a median of 17 at home this year.

Meanwhile, the Titans have scored fewer than 14.5 points in seven of 12 games this year, including four of five games on the road.

Tennessee has averaged 11.6 points per game on the road this year, with a median of 12.

It’s not a tall task for the Browns to perform slightly better than their season-long average and median against a woeful offense such as the Titans, and Tennessee must merely be their usual dreadful selves to go under 14.5 points on Sunday.

Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Titans facing the Jaguars and the 49ers facing the Browns.

Week 13 Best Bet Prediction: Tennessee Titans Over 17.5 Points (+101)

Gamblers who want to eat some chalk can get the Titans over 16.5 points at other sportsbooks, but I’ll take the +101 odds at Caesars Sportsbook for Tennessee to go over 17.5 points against their AFC South rival, the Jaguars.

According to Sumer Sports, Jacksonville’s defense is eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.05) but just 14th in success rate (43.28%).

Their EPA allowed per play is aided by forcing 18 turnovers in 11 games.

However, Cam Ward might not help the Jaguars by being reckless with the football.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Ward’s 3.2% turnover-worthy play rate since Mike McCoy took the reins as Tennessee’s interim head coach in Week 7 is the 16th-lowest mark among 41 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.

The top pick in this year’s NFL Draft hasn’t thrown an interception in three straight starts and lost just one fumble in that span.

Ward also had a respectable showing against the Seahawks last week, completing 28 of 42 passes (66.7%) for 256 yards and 1 touchdown while adding 6 rushes for 37 yards and 1 touchdown.

Circling back to Jacksonville’s defense, they’ve been unimposing lately.

While the Jaguars held the Chargers to 6 points in Week 11, they’ve permitted 29, 36, and 24 points to the Raiders, Texans, and Cardinals in their other three games since their Week 8 bye.

They’ve allowed at least 20 points to seven of their last eight opponents.

Jacksonville’s defense also hasn’t traveled this season.

According to StatHead, the Jaguars have allowed 141 points (28.2 per game) in five games on the road and yielded 1,808 yards (361.6 per game) in those contests.

Despite Tennessee’s shortcomings, they’ve scored 20, 13, and 24 points in their previous three games, all at home.

The 13-point dud was forgivable against the Texans and their supremely talented defense.

As Rich Hribar noted in the Week 13 Worksheet, Ward has made strides since the club fired Brian Callahan.

Ward doesn’t need to be a world-beater to lead the Titans to at least 18 points against Jacksonville’s unimpressive defense.

Week 13 Best Bet Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Under 20.5 Points (-120)

The Browns have a fearsome defense.

Per Sumer Sports, they’re tied for second in EPA allowed per play (-0.13), tied for third in EPA allowed per pass (-0.10), first in EPA allowed per rush (-0.16), and first in success rate (36.76%) allowed.

Cleveland is also excellent in traditional measures.

According to Pro Football Reference, they’re fifth in yards allowed per play (4.7), tied for ninth in turnovers forced (15), fifth in pressure rate (25.8%), second in sacks (42), and 13th in scoring defense (22.2 points per game).

The Browns are even more fearsome at home.

According to TruMedia, the Browns have allowed only 258.0 yards per game, 4.5 yards per play, 101.4 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry, 156.6 passing yards per game, and 5.6 net yards per pass attempt in four home games against the Bengals, Packers, Dolphins, and Ravens.

Cleveland has tallied 4.3% interceptions per pass attempt and 14.4% sacks per pass attempt at home as well.

In those games, they allowed 17, 10, 6, and 23 points, for an average of 14 per game and a median of 8.

The 49ers have a talented offense, and Kyle Shanahan is an offensive whiz.

Nevertheless, Brock Purdy hasn’t been sharp since returning from turf toe in Week 11.

Purdy’s 7.7% turnover-worthy play rate since Week 11 is tied for the third-highest mark among 37 quarterbacks with at least 10 dropbacks.

Purdy has 5 turnover-worthy plays and only one big-time throw in the past two games.

Revisiting Rich’s Week 13 Worksheet, Jim Schwartz’s defenses have given Shanahan’s offenses significant issues.

Schwartz took Purdy’s lunch money in Cleveland back in Week 6 of the 2023 season en route to holding the 49ers to just 17 points.

The weather forecast isn’t scoring friendly, either.

Toss in that the 49ers are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football and traveling across the country for a 1:00 p.m. ET contest, and they’re unlikely to be the second team to exceed 20.5 points against the Browns in Cleveland this year.

Thanksgiving is finally here, and we have a great slate of games for the holiday.

Let's focus on the Cowboys against the Chiefs and the Ravens hosting the Bengals.

Thanksgiving Day Best Bet Prediction: Dallas Cowboys +3.5

It’s never a comfortable feeling to pick against Patrick Mahomes, especially when the 6-5 Chiefs remain backed up against the wall in a tight AFC playoff race.

Nevertheless, Mahomes and the Chiefs have the unenviable task of playing on the road in a short week after overtime on Sunday.

As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 13 Worksheet, the boss, Warren Sharp, was consulted for betting data since 2000 for teams on the road during a short week after overtime, and it’s unflattering for the Chiefs.

In the admittedly small sample of 20 occurrences, those teams were 4-16 straight up and against the spread (ATS).

Of the seven favorites in those 20 instances, they were 2-5 straight up and 0-7 ATS.

In yet another small sample, per StatHead, the Cowboys are 3-2 ATS at home this year, including 2-0 as home underdogs and winning as 3-point dogs against the visiting Eagles last week.

Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense have the firepower to hang if the game shoots out.

Per Sumer Sports, Prescott is tied for seventh among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.14).

Furthermore, the Cowboys are also sixth in EPA per pass (0.16) this season.

Meanwhile, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Chiefs have faced the eighth-highest pass rate over expectations (5.0% PROE) since Week 8.

The Cowboys have only the 11th-highest PROE (2.3%) since Week 8, but getting coaxed into airing it out more often could work to their advantage this week.

Circling to the other side of the ball, Dallas’ acquisition of Quinnen Williams could pay dividends for the defense the rest of the season.

Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 112 interior defensive linemen with at least 200 snaps this year, Williams is tied for second in stops (27) and tied for ninth in hurries (25).

Williams can impact both the run and the pass.

Moreover, Williams will have an easier assignment this week than if the Chiefs were at full health.

Sadly for Kansas City, Trey Smith has been ruled out.

Interior pressure could derail Mahomes’ passing efficiency.

Among 39 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 50 times under pressure this year, Mahomes is tied for the 10th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.4%) and 32nd in completion percentage (42.2%).

There’s a path to the Cowboys upsetting the Chiefs this week or at least covering the 3.5-point spread offered at DraftKings Sportsbook at -115 odds.

Thanksgiving Day Best Bet Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Over 30.5 Points

The Ravens opened the season with 40, 41, 30, and 20 points through their first four games.

Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson injured his hamstring against the Chiefs in Week 4, and the offense hasn’t been the same, even after his return in Week 9.

The Ravens have scored 30 points or fewer in nine straight contests.

Furthermore, since the Ravens hung 28 points on the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, Baltimore has scored 27, 23, and 23 points.

The Bengals are the optimal elixir for what ails Baltimore’s offense.

Cincinnati has allowed the most EPA per play (0.19), the most EPA per pass (0.26), tied for the third-most EPA allowed per rush (0.08), and the highest success rate (50.07%) allowed this year.

Their traditional metrics aren’t any prettier.

According to Pro Football Reference, Cincinnati’s defense is tied for the most yards allowed per play (6.3), has the fourth-lowest pressure rate (17.1%), ceded the most passing yards per game (259.8), coughed up the second-most rushing yards per game (156.0), and has allowed the most points per game (32.7), 4.2 more points per game than the second-worst scoring defense.

The Bengals don’t have much talent on defense, and Trey Hendrickson has already been ruled out.

Hendrickson last cleared a 50% defensive snap share in Week 5.

In a reduced capacity in Week 6 and Week 8, the Bengals allowed 27 points to the Packers and 39 to the Jets.

Without Hendrickson in Week 7, Week 9, and the two games since their Week 10 bye, they’ve allowed 27, 47, 34, and 26 points to the Steelers, Bears, Steelers, and Patriots.

Thus, the Bengals have allowed an average of 33.5 points per game, with a median of 30.5 in games without Hendrickson this year.

Even if lower-body injuries have hampered Jackson’s play, he can play competently enough against Cincinnati’s Charmin-soft defense to move the ball through the air.

More importantly, the Ravens can run roughshod over and through the Bengals.

Since Jackson returned in Week 9, the Ravens are 22nd in pass rate over expected (-2.5%).

They should have ample incentive to feed Derrick Henry this week.

First, in King Henry’s last four games with Jackson back in the saddle, he’s rumbled for 90.3 rushing yards per game, 4.63 yards per carry, 2.21 yards before contact per attempt, 2.42 yards after contact per attempt, and a 5.1% explosive run rate.

Second, the Bengals aren’t showing any signs of stiffening against the run.

Instead, Cincinnati has yielded the second-most rushing yards per game (188.8), 5.68 yards per carry, and a 6.8% explosive run rate since Week 8.

Ideally, the return of Joe Burrow from turf toe and Ja’Marr Chase from a one-game suspension for spitting on Jalen Ramsey will force the Ravens to keep playing inspired offense until the final whistle.

Still, even if the Ravens are protecting a lead by taking the air out of the ball, they can keep scoring while pounding the rock and chewing up the clock against a non-existent run defense.

As a result, the Ravens have a stellar shot to exceed 30.5 points against the Bengals on Thursday night, whether it’s in a back-and-forth shootout or while capping off a dominant victory.

Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Patriots against the Bengals and the Cardinals facing off against the Jaguars.

Week 12 Best Bet Prediction: New England Patriots Over 28.5 Points (-113)

First of all, line shopping is critical for this contest as there are moving pieces, namely the seemingly probable return of Joe Burrow.

At the time of writing, over 28.5 for the Patriots at -113 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a relative bargain compared to the -125 listing for over 28.5 points at Fanatics Sportsbook or the eye-popping team total of 30.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook.

Oddsjam is a great way to find the best lines for every betting market!

Still, Burrow’s possible return could be optimal for the Patriots to keep their foot to the floor on the accelerator against Cincinnati’s pitiful defense.

The Bengals are dreadful on defense by every imaginable measure.

According to Pro Football Reference, Cincinnati’s defense is tied for the most yards allowed per play (6.3), has generated pressure at the fourth-lowest rate (17.3%), and has permitted the most points per game (33.4) this season.

They’ve allowed six of 10 opponents to eclipse 28.5 points this year, with a median of 32.5 points allowed.

The advanced metrics are also putrid.

Per Sumer Sports, the Bengals have allowed the most expected points added (EPA) per play (0.21) by a wide margin, the most EPA allowed per pass (0.27), tied for the second-most EPA allowed per rush (0.11), and the highest success rate (50.45%) allowed.

The Patriots can likely pick whatever path they want to move the football on Sunday.

New England has a potent offense capable of fully exploiting Cincinnati’s defensive ineptitude.

The Patriots are tied for sixth in yards per play (5.8), seventh in scoring offense (26.5 points per game), tied for fifth in EPA per play (0.10), and 14th in success rate (44.21%).

Drake Maye is the triggerman, and the second-year pro is playing at an MVP level.

He’s first in total EPA and third in EPA per play among quarterbacks with more than 100 plays.

Maye should also get his field-stretching wideout, Kayshon Boutte, back from a two-week absence since the young wideout logged a full practice on Thursday.

While DJ Turner has succeeded in blanketing No. 1 wideouts this year, Stefon Diggs might avoid his clutches more often than other No. 1 wide receivers because of his deployment.

According to the Fantasy Points Data suite, Diggs has a 47.2% slot rate this year and a 52.2% slot rate in his last five games.

Meanwhile, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Turner has played only 22 snaps in the slot versus 598 on the outside, with a high of just 6 snaps aligned in the slot in Week 9.

TreVeyon Henderson has taken advantage of an expanded role in New England’s backfield lately, ripping off 150 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns against the Buccaneers in Week 10 and 93 and 3 against the Jets in Week 11.

He’s had at least 75 scrimmage yards in four straight games, and Rhamondre Stevenson could return this week to provide the backfield with a bigger-bodied complement to punish Cincinnati’s porous run defense.

Since Week 7, the Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 198.8 rushing yards per game and 6.52 yards per carry.

So, even if the Patriots dominate the Bengals and hold a commanding lead late, they shouldn’t have trouble marching the ball down the field while salting the game away.

Whether the game shoots out or the Patriots handle their business as a favorite, they can surpass 28.5 points against Cincinnati’s barely-there defense.

Week 12 Best Bet Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Over 22.5 Points (-115)

Jacoby Brissett has provided the Cardinals with a jolt as the starting quarterback.

In his five starts, they’ve scored 27, 23, 27, 22, and 22 points.

The Cardinals are averaging 24.2 points per game, with a median of 23 in Brissett’s starts.

Sadly, they’ve scored precisely 22 points in back-to-back games, which wouldn’t cut it for their over against the Jaguars.

Interestingly, the 49ers were a favorable matchup in Week 11, making Arizona’s 22 points a slight disappointment.

Conversely, the Seahawks were a brutal matchup in Week 10, making the Cardinals’ 22 points a more palatable total.

Jacksonville’s defense falls somewhere in between.

The Jaguars bullied the Chargers in Week 11, holding them to just 6 points in Jacksonville.

The stout defensive showing should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Chargers had the unenviable task of traveling across the country and playing in the 1:00 p.m. ET window.

Moreover, Los Angeles’s offensive line is a makeshift unit.

Justin Herbert and the offense have played markedly worse without Joe Alt.

Jacksonville’s stellar defensive effort last week comes on the heels of coughing up 36 points to the Texans in Week 10 and 29 to the Raiders in Week 9.

They’ve permitted more than 22.5 points in four of their last six games.

The Jaguars rank a respectable tied for 12th in scoring defense, allowing 22.6 points per game.

Yet, they’ve benefited immensely from forcing 18 turnovers, tying for the second most in the NFL.

According to PFF, Brissett is tied for the 12th-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (2.7%) among 35 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this year.

He’s unlikely to recklessly care for the football, making Jacksonville’s defense’s job more difficult this week.

The Cardinals have a below-average rushing attack, ranking tied for 24th in EPA per rush (-0.06).

However, Arizona likely won’t opt to run often against Jacksonville’s pass-funnel defense.

According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Jaguars have faced an NFL-high 65% situation-neutral pass rate this year.

Furthermore, they’ve faced a 66% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 7.

The Cardinals will likely lean on Brissett’s arm and Trey McBride in this contest.

Fortunately for Arizona, McBride is a baller, and the Jaguars haven’t had answers for tight ends.

McBride has tallied a 25.8% air yards share, 25.8% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 42 receptions, 443 receiving yards, 2.12 yards per route run, and 6 receiving touchdowns in Brissett’s starts.

The Jaguars are tied for the fourth-most receptions per game (6.40) allowed to tight ends and have ceded the third-most receiving yards per game (69.4) to them this year.

Jacksonville won’t need to twist Brissett’s arm to pepper McBride with targets, and their susceptibility against tight ends should help the Cardinals move the ball and score points.

Arizona should clear 22.5 points for the fourth time with Brissett starting at quarterback this year.

Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Chiefs facing the Broncos and the Ravens going up against the Browns.

Week 11 Best Bet Prediction: Chiefs at Broncos Under 44.5 Points

The Chiefs are coming out of their bye and facing the Broncos in Denver in a critical AFC West matchup.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have an exceptional track record out of the bye, but a road tilt in Denver will be challenging for their offense.

According to Pro Football Reference, Denver’s defense has allowed the fewest yards per play (4.3), generated pressure at the third-highest rate (28.5%), tallied an NFL-high 46 sacks (14 more than the second-highest defense), and allowed the third-fewest points per game (17.3).

If there’s a fly in the ointment of their traditional defensive statistics, the Broncos are 26th in turnovers forced (8).

Their low rate for forcing turnovers can be viewed as a plus for betting the game’s under, though.

If the Broncos don’t force turnovers, they can’t instantly give the offense the ball in scoring position.

Unsurprisingly, Denver’s advanced defensive metrics are also superb.

Per Sumer Sports, the Broncos are second in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.11), second in EPA allowed per pass (-0.11), tied for fourth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.10), and first in success rate allowed (36.22%).

Even without Patrick Surtain in Week 9 and Week 10, they held the Texans to 268 total yards and 15 points and the Raiders to 188 and 7.

They’re still an impressive unit without the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award winner.

Of note, the scores have been low in Mahomes’s three starts against the Broncos since Sean Payton became Denver’s head coach in 2023.

The Chiefs scored 19 points against the Broncos at home in Week 6 in 2023, 9 against them in Denver in Week 8 in 2023, and 16 against them in Week 10 in Kansas City last year.

Furthermore, those games featured 33, 27, and 30 points between both teams.

On the other side, the Chiefs have an adequate defense, if not better.

They’re tied for 17th in yards allowed per play (5.4), fourth in scoring defense (17.7 points per game), tied for 12th in EPA allowed per play (-0.02), tied for seventh in EPA allowed per pass (-0.05), tied for 24th in EPA allowed per rush (0.02), and 19th in success rate allowed (44.97%).

Fortunately for Kansas City’s defense, their assignment against Bo Nix and almost certainly a J.K. Dobbins-less backfield (he’s seeking a second opinion on his foot injury) isn’t imposing.

The Broncos are 17th in scoring offense (23.5 points per game), tied for 17th in yards per play (5.3), tied for 13th in EPA per play (0.02), and 28th in success rate (41.05%).

Circling back to Nix, he’s having a wholly unimpressive sophomore campaign.

Among qualified quarterbacks this season, Nix is 18th in QBR (54.9), 27th in quarterback rating (85.7), and 22nd in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.74).

He’s not wowing the game charters at Pro Football Focus (PFF), either.

Instead, Nix is 18th in PFF’s passing grade among 33 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this year.

This matchup is unlikely to buck the trend of low-scoring slugfests in Mahomes’s last three meetings against the Broncos, and Nix is ill-equipped to push this into a shootout.

Week 11 Best Bet Prediction: Ravens Under 23.5 Points

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens hung an eye-popping 41 points on the Browns in a 41-17 victory against their AFC North rivals in Week 2.

Baltimore has scored 40, 41, 30, 20, 28, and 27 points in Jackson’s six starts this year, with the 28-point and 27-point efforts coming since he returned from his hamstring injury.

The initial inclination might be to take Baltimore’s over for 23.5 points, and the line is juiced more in that direction.

However, the Browns have a stout defense.

Cleveland’s defense is fifth in yards allowed per play (4.7), tied for eighth in sacks (27), 17th in scoring defense (23.4 points per game), tied for third in EPA allowed per play (-0.09), tied for 13th in EPA allowed per pass (-0.01), first in EPA allowed per rush (-0.19), and second in success rate allowed (37.1%).

While Cleveland is more giving against the pass, they’re lights out against the run.

Their dominance against the run could be especially impactful on Sunday.

According to RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth, the game will likely have extremely windy conditions, with sustained winds around 20 miles per hour (mph) and gusts in the 30-35 mph range.

Baltimore’s offense will be much less ferocious if the wind makes them one-dimensional.

Moreover, while Cleveland’s defensive numbers are mostly outstanding, they’re at their best at home.

According to StatHead, in four home games this year, the Browns have allowed only 54 points (13.5 per game), 4.12 yards per play, 4.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, recorded 8 sacks, and forced 3 turnovers.

The Browns have a dreadful offense that is unlikely to push the Ravens.

As a result, John Harbaugh and Todd Monken might put a premium on taking care of the football in the windy conditions at the expense of chasing explosive plays.

The game’s spread is large enough to suggest the Ravens can get a lead, take the air out of the ball, and leave a windy game with a low-scoring victory.

Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Ravens facing the Vikings and the Saints taking on the Panthers.

Week 10 Best Bet Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Over 26.5 Points (-122)

The Ravens are rolling out of their Week 7 bye.

Even with Tyler Huntley starting in Week 8, they hung 30 points on the Bears.

Lamar Jackson returned from a four-week absence to trounce the Dolphins in Week 9, leading the Ravens to 28 points.

In Jackson’s five starts this season, Baltimore has scored 40, 41, 30, 20, and 28 points.

Thus, the Ravens have averaged 31.8 points per game, with a median of 30 in Jackson’s starts.

Despite his season being paused because of a hamstring injury, Jackson is having a sensational campaign.

According to Sumer Sports, Jackson is second in expected points added (EPA) per play among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year.

The two-time NFL MVP has a fantastic matchup this week.

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (279), the second-most adjusted net yards per pass attempt (9.29), and 8 passing touchdowns with only 1 interception since Week 6.

Unsurprisingly, the Brian Flores-coached defense has blitzed a ton.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Vikings have the second-highest blitz rate (40.6%) this year.

Blitzing Jackson isn’t advised.

Jackson is the fourth-highest graded passer by Pro Football Focus (PFF) among 31 blitzed on at least 50 dropbacks this year.

Jackson has been blitzed 55 times and completed 37 of 47 attempts (78.7%) for 465 yards, 9.9 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Jackson should shred the Vikings.

Derrick Henry has also excelled in Jackson’s starts.

In Jackson’s five starts, Henry has trounced opponents for 403 rushing yards (80.6 per game), 5.93 yards per carry, a 10.3% explosive run rate, and 3 rushing touchdowns.

If Baltimore’s suddenly healthier defense plays well, it can provide the offense with favorable field position.

According to StatHead, among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts since 2000, J.J. McCarthy’s 17.50% sack rate is the fifth-highest.

Additionally, McCarthy’s 5.3% turnover-worthy play rate is tied for the third-highest among 39 quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks this year.

Again, the Ravens could have short fields if McCarthy continues to play mistake-filled football.

Conversely, if Baltimore’s defense continues to struggle and McCarthy plays better, the Vikings could push the Ravens to keep scoring.

Either outcome would help the Ravens exceed 26.5 points for the fifth time in a Jackson start this year.

Week 10 Best Bet Prediction: New Orleans Saints Under 16.5 Points (+100)

The Saints have an objectively lousy offense by traditional and advanced measures.

According to Pro Football Reference, New Orleans is 30th in yards per play (4.7) and 31st in scoring offense (15.3 points per game).

Per Sumer Sports, the Saints are 30th in EPA per play (-0.15), 30th in EPA per pass (-0.16), tied for 29th in EPA per rush (-0.13), and 25th in success rate (41.42%).

New Orleans has nothing they can hang their hat on offensively.

As a result, per TruMedia, the Saints are dead last in time of possession (26:37) per game this year.

They can’t move the ball, and you can’t score points if you don’t possess the ball.

Meanwhile, according to nfelo, the Panthers have an NFL-low -7.6% pass rate over expectation (PROE).

They want to force-feed Rico Dowdle the ball and keep the ball out of their opponent’s hands.

The Panthers don’t have an elite defense.

In fact, they have a below-average defense.

Still, Carolina’s defense is essentially slightly below average instead of a dumpster fire.

The Panthers are 24th in EPA allowed per play (0.06), seventh in success rate allowed (41.25%), tied for 20th in yards allowed per play (5.5), and 16th in scoring defense (22.8 points per game).

Carolina’s defense has also had moments of excellence.

They shut out the Falcons in Week 3, held the Jets to 6 points in Week 7, and allowed only 13 points to the Packers last week.

Tyler Shough isn’t the quarterback to get the best of Carolina’s defense.

Shough is 39th in EPA per pass (-0.26) among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season.

The Saints scored just 3 and 13 points in Shough’s two starts.

Things won’t be any easier for the rookie signal-caller this week after the club traded speedy pass catcher Rashid Shaheed.

Shaheed is also a talented punt returner, with a punt return touchdown in 2023 and another in 2024.

His absence eliminates a potential headache for those on the Saints under 16.5 points.

It doesn’t take much going wrong to get burned on such a low team under.

Nevertheless, the Saints haven’t shown any offensive spark, failing to reach 17 points in five of nine games, including both of Shough’s starts.

So, the Saints under for 16.5 points at even money is a compelling wager.

Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Broncos facing the Texans and the Colts playing the Steelers.

Week 9 Best Bet Prediction: Denver Broncos Under 19.5 Points (+100)

The Houston Texans have an outstanding defense by both traditional and advanced statistics.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Texans are tied for the fifth-fewest yards per play (4.8) allowed, tied for the fifth-most turnovers forced (11), and first in scoring defense (14.7 points per game).

They also have 16 sacks in seven games.

While that’s not an eye-popping number, Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades them second in pass rush.

Per Sumer Sports, the Texans are first in Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.13), first in EPA per pass allowed (-0.21), tied for 17th in EPA per rush allowed (-0.01), and third in success rate allowed (39.29%).

The Texans have held five opponents to fewer than 20 points in seven contests this year, allowing a median of 15.

Houston has yielded 0, 15, and 20 points in their three home games, for an average of 11.7 points per game and a median of 15.

Bo Nix and the Broncos are unlikely to find much success against Houston’s talented defense.

The second-year quarterback is much better at home and has unimpressive numbers on the road.

According to TruMedia, Nix had passed for 2,690 yards (192.1 per game), 17 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions with an 88.5 quarterback rating in 14 games on the road.

He’s also taken 20 sacks on the road and lost eight of 14 road tilts.

The Nix-led Broncos scored fewer than 20 points in five road games since last year, and they scored precisely 20 points in two of the games they exceeded this week’s team total of 19.5 points.

Denver averaged only 20.1 points per game, with a median of 20.5 in those 14 road games.

Considering the varying calibers of defenses they faced in those contests, it’s reasonable to expect a stingy defense like Houston’s to hold them below their average and median on the road since last year.

Moreover, Nix hasn’t led the Broncos to many points in early games.

According to StatHead, the Broncos scored 7, 10, 10, 13, 14, 21, and 26 points in seven games with a start time before 3:00 p.m. ET since last year.

Thus, the Broncos have averaged only 14.4 points per game, with a median of 13 in those games.

Nix is unlikely to turn his road numbers and early-window stats around this week in a challenging matchup, making the +100 odds at DraftKings for Denver going under 19.5 points an appealing wager.

Week 9 Best Bet Prediction: Indianapolis Colts Over 27.5 Points (+100)

The Colts have unleashed an unbelievable offense this season.

Indianapolis is first in yards per play (6.5), clearing the Bills in second by 0.4 yards per play.

They’re also first in scoring offense, smashing teams for 33.8 points per game.

Unsurprisingly, their advanced statistics are also jaw-dropping.

The Colts are first in EPA per play (0.23), second in EPA per pass (0.27), first in EPA per rush (0.16), and first in success rate (49.89%).

Daniel Jones has excelled in his first year in Shane Steichen’s offense.

Among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this year, Danny Dimes is second in total EPA (85.11) and second in EPA per play (0.30).

While Jones has played exceptionally well, it hasn’t come at Jonathan Taylor’s expense.

Instead, Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (850).

Furthermore, according to the Fantasy Points data suite, among 46 running backs with at least 46 rush attempts this season, Taylor is second in yards per carry (5.94), tied for fourth in explosive run rate (8.4%), seventh in overall success rate (56.6%), and first in success rate (72.0%) on man/gap concepts.

The Colts can have their way with the Steelers on the ground or through the air.

Pittsburgh is tied for 24th in EPA per play allowed (0.07), tied for 24th in EPA per pass allowed (0.13), tied for 15th in EPA per rush allowed (-0.02), and 23rd in success rate allowed (45.30%).

Pittsburgh’s defense has coughed up the ninth-most yards per play (5.6) and the 11th-most points per game (25.0) this season.

They’ve allowed four of seven opponents to surpass 30 points this year, and held only three under Indy’s team total of 27.5 points.

Meanwhile, the Colts have eclipsed 27.5 points in seven of eight games.

The only time they went under 27.5 points was when they scored 20 points against the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 4.

Infamously, Adonai Mitchell dropped the ball just before the goal line, resulting in a fumble through the end zone and subsequent touchback.

The Colts should continue their heater.

The +100 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook for Indianapolis to go over 27.5 points against the Steelers this week are appealing.

Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Broncos against the Cowboys.

Week 8 Best Bet Prediction: Broncos -3.5

The Broncos mounted a furious comeback against the Giants last week, getting shut out through three quarters and trailing the G-Men 19-0 before scoring an eye-popping 33 points in the fourth quarter.

Viewers were treated to the full Bo Nix experience.

Fortunately, Nix and Denver’s offense have a golden opportunity to build on their explosive fourth quarter in a cupcake matchup against Dallas’s dreadful defense.

According to Sumer Sports, the Cowboys are 29th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed (0.13) and 31st in success rate allowed (49.14%).

The Broncos don’t have a juggernaut offense.

Nevertheless, it’s above average, ranking tied for ninth in EPA per play (0.04).

It’s also a versatile offense, capable of moving the ball through the air via Nix to Courtland Sutton and a mix of ancillary pieces or on the ground with Nix’s legs, J.K. Dobbins, or a sprinkling of RJ Harvey.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades the Broncos first in pass blocking and 12th in run blocking.

So, in addition to their stellar EPA ranks on offense, their offensive line is passing PFF’s film-grading test.

The Cowboys have an even more potent offense than the Broncos. Yet, Dallas’ high-flying offense is saddled by a dreadful defense.

Meanwhile, Denver’s above-average offense is the B-side of their offensive and defensive units.

The Broncos are tied for second in EPA per play allowed (-0.10) and first in success rate allowed (35.68%).

The Broncos have more paths to victory than the imbalanced Cowboys.

Moreover, Nix’s and Dak Prescott’s home and road splits are a critical consideration.

According to Pro Football Reference, Nix is 9-2 at home with a 95.0 quarterback rating versus 6-7 with an 88.2 quarterback rating on the road.

Per StatHead, last week’s 1-point victory against the Giants was Nix’s only win at home by fewer than 8 points.

Prescott is a fire-breathing giant at home and less imposing, albeit still stellar, on the road.

Since 2023, he’s tallied a 106.3 quarterback rating at home in 15 games versus a 95.2 quarterback rating in 18 games on the road.

Prescott and the Cowboys were only 8-10 in Prescott’s 18 road starts since 2023.

Ultimately, the well-rounded Broncos and their second-year quarterback should take advantage of playing at home and beat the Cowboys by more than 3.5 points on Sunday, and the -102 line offered at BetMGM Sportsbook is the most appealing line across sportsbooks.

Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Panthers visiting the Jets and the Colts facing off against the Chargers.

Week 7 Best Bet Prediction: Panthers -1

The Carolina Panthers are 3-3, and the New York Jets are the NFL’s lone winless team this year, sitting at 0-6.

Moreover, the Panthers have won back-to-back nailbiters.

The Panthers have a decent offense by some measures and an offensive identity.

According to Sumer Sports, the Panthers are 10th in success rate (46.51%), and the run game is their engine, ranking fourth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush (0.08).

Rico Dowdle has exploded for 183 and 206 rushing yards with 239 and 234 scrimmage yards in consecutive weeks.

Dowdle could get some backfield relief this week in the form of Chuba Hubbard.

His return would provide the Panthers with a formidable one-two punch in the backfield.

Conversely, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Jets have coughed up the 12th-most rushing yards per game (127.0) and the 13th-most yards per carry (4.43) in their previous three games.

If they maintain their recent run defense, the Panthers can run to their heart’s content.

The Panthers aren’t the only team in this game that wants to lean on its rushing attack.

Instead, per nfelo, the Jets have the lowest pass rate over expectations (-8.3%).

Unfortunately for Gang Green, they’re running into a suddenly stout run defense.

The Panthers have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (51.3) and the fewest yards per carry (2.48) since Week 4.

Carolina’s stingy run defense will likely force Justin Fields to beat them.

Fields is ill-equipped to beat anyone.

The Jets dubiously had -10 net passing yards last week after Fields took as many sacks (9) as he had completions (9) against the Broncos in Week 6.

Moreover, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this year, Fields is 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade and has the fourth-highest pressure-to-sack rate (24.4).

I’m not overthinking this game.

Instead, I’ll back the better running offense in the better matchup for their rushing attack and take the Panthers -1 points at -110 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Week 7 Best Bet Prediction: Colts Over 24.5 Team Total

The Indianapolis Colts are a wagon on offense.

Per Sumer Sports, the Colts are first in EPA per play (0.18), first in success rate (50.69%), tied for fifth in EPA per pass (0.24), and first in EPA per rush (0.11).

The Colts also rank well in traditional measures.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Colts are tied for first in yards per play (6.3) and first in points per game (32.3).

Indy has scored at least 29 points in five of six games, and their season-low 20 points against the Rams in Week 4 comes with the caveat of Adonai Mitchell inexplicably dropping a would-be touchdown at the one-yard line, fumbling it through the end zone for a touchback.

The offense is set for a big day in a mouthwatering matchup for Indy’s offensive focal point, Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor leads the NFL in rush attempts (115), rushing yards per game (100.5), and rushing touchdowns (7).

His underlying data is also outstanding.

According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 43 running backs with at least 30 rush attempts this year, Taylor is fifth in yards per carry (5.24), 24th in yards before contact per attempt (2.00), fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.24), 16th in explosive run rate (5.2%), 13th in stuff rate (42.6%), tied for seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.20), and first in success rate (70.5%) on man/gap runs.

A matchup against the Taylor is a bad time for a run defense to be in a slump, but that’s where the Chargers find themselves.

Since Week 4, the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (153.7) at a blistering 5.07 yards per carry.

Taylor should run roughshod over the Chargers.

Fortunately, if Los Angeles sells out to stop the run, Daniel Jones has played exceedingly well.

He’s second in total EPA (60.71) and tied for fourth among quarterbacks with more than 100 dropbacks in EPA per play (0.28).

Thus, taking +100 odds for the Colts to clear 24.5 points offered at BetMGM Sportsbook is alluring.

Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season is here!

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Buffalo Bills facing the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Week 6 Best Bet Prediction: Seattle Seahawks Team Total Over 23.5 Points (-115)

The Seahawks hit a home run by trading Geno Smith to the Raiders to open their quarterback gig for Sam Darnold.

After a career year last season, Darnold is eradicating any misguided concerns about him turning into a pumpkin.

Instead, Darnold is thriving.

According to Sumer Sports, Darnold is fourth in total Expected Points Added (EPA) and tied for first in EPA per play (0.32) among quarterbacks with more than 50 plays.

Film-based analysis of Darnold is also flattering.

Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks this year, Darnold has the second-highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF).

He’s also tied for seventh in big-time throw rate (5.6 BTT%) and has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.3 TWP%).

Darnold’s excellence in taking care of the football is critical in this week’s cross-country matchup against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is fourth in EPA per pass (-0.12) allowed this year.

However, their excellence in that category is fueled by an NFL-high 10 interceptions.

The Jaguars have also struggled to sack the quarterback, tying for the fifth-fewest sacks (7) this year.

Jacksonville has also performed poorly against the rush, allowing the eighth-most EPA per rush (0.04).

Despite Jacksonville’s leakiness against the rush, its defense has been a pass-funnel.

According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Jaguars have faced the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (66%) through five weeks.

Thus, if Darnold takes care of the ball, he should enjoy success through the air if Jacksonville’s defense’s pass-funnel tendencies lead to Klint Kubiak calling more passing plays this week.

Yet, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet also have a favorable matchup on the ground.

The Seahawks have bested 23.5 points in three of five games this year.

One of the times they fell short was a 23-point effort on a short week, on the road, and against a division opponent in Arizona on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, which is forgivable.

Moreover, they scored 31 points against the Steelers in the 1:00 p.m. ET window in Week 2, assuaging some concerns about the time zone.

Finally, the Jaguars are on a slightly short week after winning a Monday Night Football shootout against the Chiefs.

As a result, I like Seattle’s odds for eclipsing 23.5 points against the Jaguars.

Week 6 Best Bet Prediction: Buffalo Bills Team Total Over 27.5 Points (-113)

The Bills suffered their first defeat of the 2025 season, and they’ll attempt to bounce back against a Falcons team coming out of their bye.

Buffalo’s offense has been outstanding this season.

The Bills are third in scoring offense (30.6 points per game), tied for fifth in yards per play (6.1), second in EPA per play (0.17), tied for fifth in EPA per pass (0.21), third in EPA per rush (0.10), and second in success rate (48.77%).

Buffalo’s offense starts at the top with Josh Allen.

He’s third in total EPA (49.29) and tied for sixth EPA per play (0.25) among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season.

Allen will get a rare opportunity to play indoors.

According to Tru Media, in seven games indoors or in a venue with a retractable roof since 2020, Allen has completed 67.7% of 257 pass attempts for 2,011 yards (287.3 per game), 7.8 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 99.2 Quarterback Rating.

Allen could be busy against the Falcons.

Despite facing Baker Mayfield and then the unimposing collection of J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota – without Terry McLaurin – Atlanta’s defense has faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate this season.

Considering the Falcons’ opponents at quarterback, their third-best EPA per pass (-0.13) allowed this year should be taken with a grain of salt.

Additionally, the Falcons are tied for the sixth-most EPA per rush (0.05) allowed this year.

Thus, James Cook should find running room to gash them for chunk gains.

According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 47 running backs with at least 25 carries this year, Cook is second in rushing yards per game (90.0), 10th in yards per carry (5.00), 21st in explosive run rate (4.4%), 17th in success rate (56.1%) in man/gap runs, and third in success rate (68.8%) in zone concepts.

Coming out of the bye, the Falcons could fire on all cylinders and push Buffalo’s offense to keep pace.

The Bills haven’t played great defense this year, either.

They’ve allowed the 13th-most EPA per play (0.02) this season.

Michael Penix’s home and road splits are also noteworthy for this contest.

According to StatHead, in four career starts at home, Penix has completed 64.7% of 133 pass attempts for 1,125 yards (281.25 per game), 7.89 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, a 2.21 sack rate, and a 94.3 quarterback rating.

Penix to Drake London will give Buffalo’s secondary trouble, and Bijan Robinson will give the defense fits on the ground and as a pass-catching weapon.

The Falcons should push the Bills, and Allen should lead Buffalo to more than 27.5 points in the first game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader.