Super Bowl 60 is just days away, when we will find out if the Seattle Seahawks or the New England Patriots will be crowned champions.

Below are three props bets for the big game, including two Seahawks players and one from the Patriots.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Best Super Bowl 60 Over/Under Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

While Smith-Njigba has been phenomenal this season, catching 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns, he’ll be up against a Patriots secondary, led by Christian Gonzalez, that could prove to give him problems.

To play devil’s advocate against my own prop bet here, yes, Smith-Njigba has a target share of 32.6% across the regular season and playoffs without Zach Charbonnet and Tory Horton on the field.

He could very well receive so many targets that volume wins out.

Smith-Njigba has finished with 95 yards or fewer in seven of 19 games, but again, he’ll have to face Gonzalez.

Across 597 coverage snaps, Gonzalez has allowed only 45 receptions on 101 targets (44.6%) for 482 yards and 1 touchdown.

The most yards he’s allowed in a single game was 67 against the Houston Texans.

Smith-Njigba mostly plays on the outside, splitting time between both sides.

Gonzalez mostly plays the right cornerback spot, but he can also play the left side, too.

Where Smith-Njigba could succeed is in the slot, where Gonzalez doesn’t play.

That said, the Patriots allow just 116.2 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

They haven’t allowed a receiver to go for 96 yards or more since Week 10, when Emeka Egbuka went for 115 yards.

The most any receiver has had against the Patriots since then was Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens with 84 yards in Week 16.

So, there are avenues for Smith-Njigba to top this number, but overall, against Gonzalez and in what I believe will be a lower-scoring game than the total shows, Smith-Njigba will finish under this line.

Best Super Bowl 60 Over/Under Prediction: Austin Hooper Over 1.5 Receptions (+194)

Scanning over the props, Hooper going over 1.5 receptions at +194 has some nice value.

He’s caught 2 passes or more in seven games this season, including in two of his last six games.

This postseason, Hooper hasn’t been utilized much, running a route on just 27.5% of Drake Maye’s dropbacks and boasting a mere 5.5% target share.

He has caught 1 of 4 targets.

However, looking out a bit further to the Patriots’ target share against Cover 3 and Cover 6 — the two coverages the Seahawks most often play — Hooper’s target share across the regular season and playoffs is up to 7.5%, catching 13 of 18 passes and running a route on 34.6% of Maye’s dropbacks.

Seattle's defense has been excellent this season, but one spot they’ve been vulnerable is against tight ends.

They’re allowing 6 receptions for 64 yards per game to the position.

The 6 receptions allowed are the sixth-most in the NFL.

Those receptions allowed could go to Patriots starting tight end Hunter Henry, but he’s only drawn a 13.7% target share during the playoffs.

So, Hooper hasn’t been used much this season, but he’s used slightly more against the coverages the Seahawks most often play.

Additionally, the Seahawks have struggled to defend tight ends this season.

At +194 and in the Super Bowl, where teams might try to draw up unique plays to get an edge, 2 receptions are possible for Hooper.

Best Super Bowl 60 Over/Under Prediction: George Holani Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Without Zach Charbonnet on the field, Kenneth Walker has handled 85.7% of the Seahawks’ running back carries, rushing 258 times for 1,211 yards.

As for Holani, he’s run 25 times for 77 yards (3.1 yards per carry) across 12 games.

Of those rushes, 20% of them have been for 0 or negative yards.

In the NFC Championship Game, as the Seahawks were putting up 31 points, Holani ran just 3 times for 4 yards.

He’s reached 10 rushing yards just two times this season.

Also, he’ll face a Patriots defense that’s surrendering 71.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the second-fewest in the league.

The Patriots have allowed 55 total rushing yards or fewer to the position in each of their last four games.

Holani was much more effective in the NFC Championship as a receiver, catching 3 passes on 4 targets for 27 yards.

The Patriots have shown they have a fantastic run defense with Milton Williams in the lineup.

I expect the majority of the carries to go to Walker, with Holani taking a backseat and falling under 10 rushing yards.

More Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet Coverage:

Super Bowl 60 between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks is just under two weeks away, and now is a great time to look ahead to early props that offer good value or could see the odds move ahead of the big game.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Sam Darnold Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-112)

One prop that I think we could see a change to in the line itself is Sam Darnold’s passing yards.

I think this is just a bit too high at 228.5, and I’d take the under.

Yes, Darnold was fantastic in the NFC Championship, completing 69.4% of his passes for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns.

However, the Rams' cornerbacks have been their kryptonite this season, and he’ll have a much more difficult matchup against a secondary led by Christian Gonzalez and a pass rush that has been causing problems all season for their opponents.

Before the conference title game, Darnold threw for 228 yards or fewer in three straight games.

Overall, this season, he’s finished under this line eight times.

As for the Patriots, they’re surrendering 200.7 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and only five have thrown for 229 yards or more.

The last time it happened was Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In fact, only one quarterback since then has crossed the 200 line.

Yes, I know, the Patriots haven’t played a rockstar lineup of quarterbacks, but they have held players like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and C.J. Stroud under that number.

Also, including the postseason, the Patriots are fourth in pressures with 295.

During the regular season only, they finished 14th with 226.

So, during this postseason, they’ve had 69 pressures, which leads all teams.

When pressured this season — which has been on 34.9% of his dropbacks — Darnold has completed 51.5% of his passes for 1,027 yards and averages 6.3 yards per attempt.

Between now and the Super Bowl, I think this line may drop a bit.

If not, I’m certainly taking the under here.

This is a tough secondary with a pass rush that should be able to get after Darnold.

I also don’t think we see a shootout game as we did in Darnold’s NFC Championship performance.

Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Drake Maye Under 7.5 Rush Attempts (-136)

This is another prop that I wouldn’t be surprised to see drop to 6.5 or so before kickoff.

Look, I get it.

Drake Maye ran 10 times last week against the Denver Broncos and 10 times in the Wild Card round against the Los Angeles Chargers, but 8 rush attempts is a lot.

Remember, last week against Denver, the weather got so bad that passing was borderline impossible.

Maye completed just 10 of 21 passes (47.6%) for 86 yards.

Thus, he ran 10 times for 65 yards, a touchdown, and also scrambled to seal the win.

That said, of those 10 carries, 3 of them were kneel-downs.

Going back to the Wild Card round, he ran 10 times, but like the conference title game, 3 of them were kneel-downs.

Across the regular and postseason, Maye is credited with 127 rush attempts, but 29 of them are kneel-downs.

When you remove the kneel-downs, he’s run 8 times or more in only one game all season.

Let’s say, though, that you think the Patriots will win, and that’ll include three kneel-downs to end the game.

He’s had five non-kneel-down carries or more in only eight of 20 games.

To add, let’s look at his carries when he’s pressured.

The Seahawks are just one of three teams to record more than 300 pressures across the regular and postseason.

When Maye is pressured, he’s run 36 times.

Plain and simple: Without the kneel-downs and potentially dealing with pressure, it’s going to be a tall task for the Patriots quarterback to reach 8 carries.

To top it all off, only two quarterbacks all season have rushed 8 times or more against the Seahawks.

Super Bowl 60 Prediction: Jake Bobo Under 0.5 Receiving Yards (-155)

One prop I’m feeling great about and think offers some great value, even at -155, is for Jake Bobo to finish under 0.5 receiving yards.

He’s gotten more involved in the past two weeks during this postseason, catching a combined 2 passes on 3 targets for 33 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship.

That said, he’s just barely on the field.

The Seahawks will be without running back Zach Charbonnet and, seemingly, Tory Horton Jr. in the Super Bowl.

When they’ve both not been on the field this season, including the postseason, Bobo has a 2.6% target share, catching just 3 of 4 passes for 50 yards and that score last week.

What makes me feel even better about it is that even without them both on the field, he runs a route on just 14% of his quarterback’s dropbacks.

Additionally, he’ll be taking on a Patriots defense that’s been stout against wide receivers this season, allowing 116.2 receiving yards to them per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Bobo isn’t only firmly behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed when it comes to wide receivers, but also players like Kenneth Walker III, A.J. Barner, and George Holani.

At this line, yes, it takes just one catch, but he’s not been a factor whatsoever this season.

Finally, should Horton somehow become available for the Super Bowl, Bobo will be even more invisible.

More Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet Coverage:

There are just three games left in the 2025 NFL season, and two of them are played this weekend: the AFC and NFC Championship games.

Below are three prop bets for this weekend.

NFC Championship Game Prediction: Kenneth Walker III Under 20.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

With fellow Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet going down with a torn ACL, some may think that Walker will simply step in and get a bunch of carries, but I wouldn’t be so sure.

Walker hasn’t had more than 19 carries in any game this season.

Yes, it was a 51.2%-40.3% split between Walker and Charbonnet this season, including the playoffs, but there were two games where Charbonnet either didn’t play or wasn’t on the field much.

Walker still didn’t reach 20 carries in either of those games (Week 3 and the Divisional Round).

Charbonnet didn’t play in Week 3, and Walker III had 16 carries for 38 yards and averaged 2.4 yards per carry.

In the NFC Divisional Round, Charbonnet did log 5 carries, but Walker had 19 carries.

He hit that carry total because he was highly efficient, rushing for 6.1 yards per carry, and the Seahawks beat the 49ers by 35 points.

Of course, without Charbonnet on the field, Walker III has handled 85.7% of the Seahawks’ running back carries, but he’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry or fewer in eight games this season.

He also averaged 3.4 yards per carry or fewer three times between Weeks 14 and Week 18.

Walker has shown to be much more than a pure runner, too.

When Charbonnet isn’t on the field, he’s second on the team in target share at just under 16%.

I believe he’ll be used in the passing game while a committee of backs helps spell Walker’s workload in the running game.

Finally, only one running back all season has had 21 carries or more against the Rams: Bijan Robinson, who had 22 in a blowout win over the Rams in Week 17.

Even with Charbonnet out, I’m taking the under on the rushing attempts total.

NFC Championship Game Prediction: Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (-113)

As everyone knows, Nacua is a massive part of the Rams offense, leading the team in target share at 29.3%.

He’s caught 144 passes on 194 targets across 18 games.

Not only that, but he’s caught 8 passes or more in nine games and has gotten close with 7 catches in four other games.

Against the Seahawks, he caught 7 passes in Week 11 and followed that up with his best game of the season in Week 16, catching 12 of 16 passes for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Of course, fellow wide receiver Davante Adams didn’t play in Week 16, so that helped.

Even in Week 11, though, Adams and Nacua were tied for the team lead in target share at 29.6%, and Adams caught just 1 of 8 passes while Nacua caught 7 of 8.

Adams entered the postseason coming off a hamstring injury, and thus far, Nacua leads the Rams in target share at 34.1%, catching 15 passes for 167 yards, while Adams has caught 7 passes on 19 targets.

Going further with the target share conversation, the Seahawks primarily play Cover 3 and Cover 6.

Against those coverages, Nacua leads the team with a 33.9% target share.

Adams is second at 15.2%.

That also comes despite Adams running slightly more routes (78%) than Nacua (77.4%) on those dropbacks.

With this being their third meeting and with the season on the line, I expect Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to look more toward his trusted wide receiver.

I expect Nacua to be peppered with targets once again.

AFC Championship Game Prediction: Drake Maye Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-102)

Heading into the AFC Championship game, Maye has finished with 6 rush attempts or fewer in 10 games.

He’s also finished with 6 carries or fewer in seven of his last nine games.

Maye has been a great runner, though, rushing 117 times (including the playoffs) for 526 yards (4.5 yards per carry) and 4 rushing scores.

However, when he’s pressured, Maye has run just 35 times, though the yards per carry average is much higher (7.7 yards per carry).

This is important because his opponent, the Denver Broncos, are second in the NFL in pressures with 292.

I don’t expect Maye to be pressured on every dropback, of course, but this season, when pressured, Maye hasn’t run more than 4 times in any game.

He’s also finished with 1 carry or fewer per game when pressured 9 times.

Not only that, but opposing quarterbacks average 4.6 carries per game against the Broncos, and there have been 4 quarterbacks all year to run 7 times or more against them: Justin Fields, Marcus Mariota, Trey Lance, and Josh Allen.

So, not only is it a small sample, but three of those four quarterbacks aren’t great passers and are likely create more value and have better playmaking ability with their legs, and I’m not referring to Allen.

I’ll take the under at 6.5 carries.

It could end up being close, but I expect Maye to utilize his running backs a bit more and try to avoid putting himself in harm’s way and potentially cause a turnover.

There are eight teams left in the NFL playoffs, with a lot of great matchups this weekend.

Let's look at my three best props for this slate, including two from the Bears-Rams game and another from the Broncos against the Bills.

Divisional Round Prediction: Matthew Stafford Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-113)

The Los Angeles Rams are on the road against the Chicago Bears, and the game has a total of 49.

I believe that is too low.

I don’t think either defense will be able to stop the opposing offense, which will lead to a shootout.

The Bears have allowed 303 passing yards or more in each of their last three games, including 323 to Jordan Love in the Wild Card Round last week.

As for Stafford, he’s thrown for 267 or more in six of his last eight games.

The three coverages the Bears most often play are Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3.

Of those, Stafford has faced Cover-3 the most, seeing it on 220 of his dropbacks.

He’s 146 of 209 (69.9%) for 1,799 yards, 8.6 yards per attempt, with 11 touchdown passes.

Those 1,799 yards against Cover 3 are the most in the league.

Not only that, but Stafford’s No. 1 target, Puka Nacua, leads the NFL in targets (71), receptions (56), and yards (735) against Cover 3.

Furthermore, against Cover 1, Nacua ranks fourth in the NFL in yards (318) and averages 21.1 yards per reception.

Something else to consider is that the Bears are dealing with injuries on defense.

Linebacker T.J. Edwards fractured his fibula and is out for the season, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson is questionable, and Kyler Gordon is dinged up and allowed a few chunk plays in the Wild Card Round win.

Finally, we have to examine Stafford when he has a clean pocket.

The Bears are 30th in the NFL in pressures (187), so I expect many clean looks for Stafford.

When he’s kept clean in the pocket, Stafford has completed 71.7% of his passes for 3,855 yards (8.5 yards per attempt) and 41 touchdowns.

Interestingly, his average depth of target is higher under pressure (10.8) than in a clean pocket (9.3), so if the Bears do get some pressure, Stafford may look to chuck it up to Nacua or another receiver downfield.

Divisional Round Prediction: Luther Burden III Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

In the Wild Card Round win over the Packers, in what was a 31-27 shootout, Burden had 3 catches on 7 targets for 42 yards.

When fellow wide receiver Rome Odunze was on the field, they had a fairly similar target share percentage, with Odunze at 18.8% and Burden at 15.6%.

Unfortunately, though, Burden caught just 1 of those targets.

What I liked was that Williams was targeting Burden at all levels of the field, which makes reaching this line of 38 that much easier.

Additionally, the Bears will be facing a lot of Cover 3, and Burden has been excellent against it.

He leads the team in yards (339) and is tied for the team lead in yards per reception (16.1) versus Cover 3.

Here are the stat lines for Burden III and Odunze:

• Burden: 25 targets, 21 catches, 339 yards, 1 touchdown.
• Odunze: 29 targets, 13 receptions, 209 yards, 2 touchdowns.

So, Odunze gets more deep shots, but Burden has been steady and has a higher yards after the catch per reception.

As mentioned above, I believe this game will be a shootout and go beyond the over-under of 49, and Burden will be the Bears’ answer against Cover 3.

Divisional Round Prediction: RJ Harvey Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

When fellow Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins hasn’t been on the field this season, Harvey has received the lion’s share of the Broncos’ running back carries, handling 73.1% of them.

He leads Jaleel McLaughlin, who’s at 25%.

Since Week 11, Harvey has had double-digit carries in all but one game, and he’s had 15 carries or more in three of those.

This may seem counterintuitive, seeing as how bad the Bills’ run defense is, allowing 108.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (6th), but Harvey just hasn’t been efficient when he’s gotten the ball.

He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and has run 29 times for 71 over his last two games.

McLaughlin doesn’t get many carries, but he’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Over his last three games, he’s run 18 times and has 118 yards.

The Broncos could also find themselves trailing in this game, and if that happens, Harvey tends to disappear in those situations.

This season, when the Broncos are trailing, Harvey has just 36 carries.

He has 146 on the season.

He still leads the Broncos’ running back carry share at 69.2%, but the Broncos tend to just turn away from the run game altogether.

So, there are a few angles.

Yes, the Bills’ run defense is terrible, but I’m not sure Harvey can take advantage, and that might open the door for McLaughlin more.

If the Broncos trail, they tend to ditch the running game.

Harvey will finish close to this number, but I don’t see him surpassing it unless, somehow, the Broncos, who won 11 games by one score, rack up a multi-score lead against a Josh Allen-led Bills offense.

The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs is here.

It begins with the Carolina Panthers vs. the Los Angeles Rams and ends with the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Houston Texans on Monday night.

Below, I’ll provide my four best props for this weekend’s action.

Wild Card Round Prediction: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-112)

The narrative heading into this game is that the Texans badly outmatch the Steelers and are going to walk all over them.

While I can concede they may win the game, I don’t believe it’ll be as big a blowout as “the public” thinks it will be, and a big part of that will be Rodgers’ passing ability.

This season, Rodgers finished with 21 completions or more in 10 of 16 games, including each of his last five.

Rodgers is averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt, and the magic formula for him racking up these completions is his extremely fast time to throw.

Of all 36 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks this season, Rodgers has the second-fastest time to throw at 2.56 seconds, trailing only Miami Dolphins signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa at 2.55 seconds.

In addition to that, 22.9% of his attempts are behind the line of scrimmage, and 45% are between zero and nine yards downfield.

Does this mean there are explosive plays?

No, but for this prop, that massively benefits us.

Going further, the Texans primarily play Cover 3, and against that, Rodgers has a 67.7% completion percentage, completing 90 of 133 passes on 142 dropbacks.

Also, against quarterbacks that get the ball out in 2.56 seconds or faster, the Texans are allowing a 69.2% completion percentage for 1,777 yards, 6.2 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

This game is setting up well for something more competitive than you might expect, and a big part of that will be completions from Rodgers’ 42-year-old right arm.

Wild Card Round Prediction: Konata Mumpfield Under 6.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Looking at the entirety of the 2025-2026 season, Mumpfield finished with a 4% target share, catching 10 of 23 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.

He’s finished with 7 receiving yards or more in four games this season, including in two of his last three.

However, in the two games he went over this line, both Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee were out with injury.

In fact, in situations where Adams and Higbee are on the field, Mumpfield has a 0.7% target share, catching just 1 pass.

Then, if you add Puka Nacua to the mix, who will certainly be on the field, Mumpfield never even gets on the field.

Looking at the two games he went over this line, Mumpfield was far more involved.

He had a 15.5% target share and ran a route on 59.8% of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks.

However, in Week 18, when only Higbee returned, he had a mere 2.7% target share, catching 0 passes on 1 target.

He did run a route on 51.2% of dropbacks, but still, he wasn’t looked at whatsoever.

Now, Adams is back on the field, and Mumpfield will likely not really get on the field, barring injury.

As it is, the Panthers allow the eighth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers per game, and Adams and Nacua will monopolize those targets.

I don’t see Mumpfield getting on the field.

Wild Card Round Prediction: Cade Stover Under 1.5 Receptions (-185)

The Texans are on the road against a Steelers defense that does allow the fourth-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends (6.24), but taking the over on Stover’s receptions isn’t the play.

Throughout the entire regular season, Stover boasts just a 2.9% target share, catching 12 of 16 passes for 76 yards.

He did miss a bunch of time, but even since his return in Week 11 to now, his target share is just 5%, catching 8 of 12 passes for 54 yards.

He caught 4 passes in Week 1, but after that, he’s caught 1 pass or fewer in five of nine games.

Stover is behind players like Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Christian Kirk in target share.

Not only that, but he’s run a route on just 21.1% of his quarterback’s dropbacks, which pales in comparison to Schultz’s 79.9%.

Going further, the Steelers play plenty of Cover 1 and Cover 3, and against those, Stover, since Week 11, has a 3.8% target share, tied with Jaylin Noel and Woody Marks.

He’s not getting targeted much at all, and he doesn’t run many routes.

Take the under.

Wild Card Round Prediction: Josh Whyle Under 1.5 Receptions (-400)

This is a somewhat surprising prop bet to see, not only because of the player but also because of the odds.

No, the odds aren’t great, but this one feels like an easy addition to a parlay or something like that.

Since Week 10, Whyle has a 2.3% target share, catching 4 of 5 passes for 32 yards and a touchdown.

Over the Packers’ last two games — not including Week 18 due to them playing backups — Whyle caught just 1 pass for 8 yards.

Whyle has just 5 catches all season and hasn’t caught multiple passes in a game since Week 18 last year, while he was on the Tennessee Titans.

This is a slam dunk under choice.

Here we go: It’s Week 18, the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season.

This week, there are no Thursday Night Football or Monday Night Football games.

Instead, there are two on Saturday and 14 on Sunday.

Let's get into my three best prop bets for this slate before we head into the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.

Week 18 Prediction: Sam Darnold Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-113)

There are a few massively important games in Week 18, and one of them is the Seattle Seahawks and Darnold against the San Francisco 49ers.

The winner of this game will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

With that, I think this is going to be a slightly different game than you may expect based on these teams’ recent performances.

The 49ers have been on an offensive rampage lately, averaging 42 points per game over their last three, and the Seahawks have won six in a row and put up 27 points or more in three of their last four.

The two coverages the Seahawks play most are Cover 3 and Cover 6, and 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has just 5 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions against those.

Couple that with this being a divisional matchup and the total being at 47.5, and this may not turn into a shootout that’ll put Darnold in a position to keep pace.

Heading into this game, Darnold has thrown for 243 yards or fewer in seven of 16 games.

In one of those games, he had 244 yards.

One of his worst games of the season came against these 49ers, but to be fair to him, that was in Week 1.

He threw for just 150 yards.

Darnold is averaging about 30 dropbacks per game, and opposing quarterbacks see Cover 3 on about 40% of their dropbacks when facing the 49ers.

Against Cover 3, Darnold has had some success, averaging about 8.5 yards per dropback.

So, at a 40% rate (12 dropbacks), that’s about 102 passing yards.

I’m just not sure he’ll have enough dropbacks or attempts to get to this line.

Finally, while I cannot quantify this statistically, there’s another narrative to keep in mind: Will Darnold fall apart?

This is a crucial game, similar to the one he played for the Minnesota Vikings last season.

Take the under.

Week 18 Prediction: Shedeur Sanders Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-245)

Sanders has made six starts this season and has thrown 1 touchdown or more in six of them, including in each of his last two.

Now, he’ll face the Cincinnati Bengals defense that should allow him to show out a bit before the Cleveland Browns head into the offseason and make a decision on where to go with the quarterback position.

The Bengals are allowing 1.88 passing touchdowns per game.

They’ve allowed at least 1 touchdown pass in all but two games this season: Week 13 against a banged-up Lamar Jackson and Week 16 against Quinn Ewers in his first NFL start.

In fact, they’ve allowed more multi-passing touchdown games than they have those with one or fewer.

Sanders is without a few key options: tight ends Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku, and running back Quinshon Judkins.

His top weapon will be wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who has only 2 touchdowns this season, but they’ve both come against the coverage the Bengals most often play.

With Joe Burrow under center for the Bengals, chances are they’ll put up some points and put the Browns and Sanders into a spot where he needs to throw.

Sanders will have 1 passing touchdown against this dreadful Bengals defense.

Week 18 Prediction: Matthew Stafford Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-200)

Before diving into my analysis, there’s something massive to consider with this prop: If the 49ers beat the Seahawks, the Rams are locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC regardless of whatever happens this week.

So, this could be a scenario where Stafford may not play the whole game.

To play devil’s advocate, though, he could stay out there to push for the MVP award.

Still, in Week 18, these are angles we need to consider.

The 49ers certainly have a chance to win, so taking the under on the line could prove even more valuable if, for example, Stafford plays only the first half.

Now let’s dive into the numbers.

These teams met in Week 14, and Stafford threw 3 touchdowns and had 281 passing yards.

However — and sure, this could happen again this week — one of Stafford’s 3 touchdowns (his 3rd) came immediately after an interception from Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett at the Cardinals’ 22-yard line.

Additionally, looking at the numbers, the Cardinals play Cover 3 and Cover 4 more than anything else.

Against these, Stafford has thrown 12 of his 42 touchdowns.

He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in three games this season, including against the Cardinals.

Something else to consider is that, while wide receiver Davante Adams didn’t catch any touchdowns, his presence on the field certainly helps open things up for the other weapons, including Puka Nacua.

Overall, there are too many things going against wagering on him hitting 3 touchdown passes: There’s a reality where he doesn’t play the whole game, Adams is questionable, 1 of his touchdowns in their last meeting came after an interception in favorable field position, and he’s never thrown 3 touchdowns in a game against Cover 3 and Cover 4.

With three games on Christmas Day in the rear-view mirror, we now have two games on Saturday, 10 on Sunday, and one on Monday to look forward to.

On Christmas Day, I also provided three prop bets and got all three correct, so let’s hope to keep the streak alive.

Below, I’ll provide my three best prop bets for the remainder of the slate.

Week 17 Prediction: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+146)

As you likely know by now, Allen can be somewhat unpredictable when it comes to his passing performances.

We all know he’s a more than capable passer.

Still, he can have a game like last week, where he attempts just 19 passes, averages 6.8 yards per attempt, and has no touchdowns or interceptions

Of course, there are other times where he’ll complete 22 of 28 passes for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns, as he did against the Cincinnati Bengals.

That said, in this spot, getting a +146 value is worth a shot.

Allen didn’t have a passing touchdown last week, but he had three in back-to-back games before that and has had multiple touchdown passes in nine of 15 games.

Yes, he’s facing an Eagles defense that’s allowing the fewest passing touchdowns per game at 0.87.

So why this spot?

Well, if you look at who the Eagles have played, you can start to pick apart some of those opponents.

They’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in three games: Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield earlier in the season, and Dak Prescott.

Over their last four games, they’ve played a tandem of Josh Johnson and Marcus Mariota, Kenny Pickett, Justin Herbert fresh off surgery, and Caleb Williams.

Williams has made some highlight reel throws, but he’s another quarterback who’s been up and down regarding passing touchdowns

Regardless, the Bears won that game by 9 points and had a lead throughout, so throwing wasn’t as necessary.

Now, let’s dive into some numbers.

The Eagles play Cover 3 more than anything else, but Cover 1 and Cover 6 have been seen by opposing quarterbacks on 126 of their dropbacks or more.

Against those three coverages, Allen has completed 198 of 292 passes (67.8%) for 2,377 yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

He has 25 passing touchdowns on the season, so that’s nearly half of his passing touchdown production.

That said, when you look more into the numbers, you’ll find that he’s only attempted 29 passes against Cover 6 all season and has just 1 passing touchdown, but has completed 72.4% of those passes.

Something else worth pointing out: In seven home games, Allen has multiple touchdown passes in six of them.

He plays well at home, and I believe he’ll do much better against this Eagles pass defense than most would expect.

Week 17 Prediction: C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-170)

We covered one AFC quarterback, and now we’ll look at another, but this time, I’m going under on the passing touchdowns.

Stroud has multiple touchdown passes in only four of 12 games this season, and he’s facing a Chargers defense that allows the second-fewest passing touchdowns per game at 0.93.

They’ve allowed three quarterbacks to have multiple touchdown passes against them.

Those quarterbacks were Daniel Jones when he was red-hot earlier in the season, Prescott, and Geno Smith.

Smith may seem like an outlier, and he is, but honestly, some oddities tend to occur with divisional matchups.

Still, it’s worth noting, as I’d say Stroud is objectively a better passer and quarterback than Smith.

That aside, the numbers don’t lie: Stroud struggles against the coverages the Chargers most often play, which are Cover 3 and Cover 4.

Against these, Stroud has completed 107 of 164 passes (65.2%) for 1,148 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

That amounts to close to 44% of his passing yardage production, but just 12.5% of his passing touchdowns.

In fact, he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass against either coverage since Week 3, which was more than 123 pass attempts ago.

The Chargers have been scoring some points lately, which could put the Texans in a position to have to throw more, but over the course of the season, their average scoring margin is just +3.2.

So, game plan-wise, the Texans could simply try to run the ball, play strong defense, and try to grit out a low-scoring contest.

I don’t see Stroud throwing multiple touchdown passes in this spot.

Week 17 Prediction: Tre Harris Over 1.5 Receptions (-155)

To close things out, I’m sticking with the Chargers-Texans game and taking the over on the Chargers’ rookie receivers' receptions.

Over their last four games, Harris is third on the team in target share at 16.3%, catching 11 of 16 passes for 151 yards.

He trails only Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, who are barely ahead of him, both at 20.4%.

Over the last two games, he’s second at 18.5%, catching 7 of 10 passes for 103 yards.

His target share has actually been higher than Ladd McConkey‘s.

Harris has had 2 catches or more in eight of his last 10 games.

While the Texans defense is one of the best Herbert and the Chargers will face all season, Harris has been getting more involved.

As the Chargers gear up for a playoff run, getting a downfield threat more intertwined with the offense will only be helpful.

Take the over on 1.5 catches.

Week 17 of the NFL season is here, and to kick things off on Thursday, which is also Christmas Day, we have three games: the Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, and the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos.

Below, I’ll provide a prop bet for each Christmas Day game.

Christmas Day Prediction: Javonte Williams Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

While Williams has run for 76 yards or more in nine of 15 games this season, there are a few angles to consider here.

First, Williams is a free agent after this season.

Now, this could mean that the Cowboys could squeeze every last snap out of him, but I tend to believe they’ll want to see more of what they have in a player like Malik Davis, who’s also a free agent, albeit a restricted one after this season or perhaps keep Williams healthy and sign him to an extension to lead this backfield next season.

After all, the Cowboys’ season is over after Week 18, so why push it?

Another consideration is contract incentives.

Williams had contract incentives for 1,250 total yards and 12 touchdowns.

He’s hit both of those, earning himself an extra $500,000.

So, when you consider that, along with the fact that he suffered a neck injury and came out of the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, I question what kind of usage he’ll have.

The matchup, though, is great.

The Commanders allow 24.3 carries, 113.5 rushing yards (4.7 yards per carry), and 0.93 touchdowns per game.

When we get this late in the season, there are other real-life implications to keep in mind beyond just what the stats show.

If Williams plays — he’s been limited in practice this week — I believe we could see closer to a 50/50 split between him and Davis, along with Hunter Luepke factored in.

As a result of those fewer snaps and carries, Williams will finish with 75 yards or fewer.

Christmas Day Prediction: Max Brosmer Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-225)

The last time we saw Brosmer start was on the road in Week 13 against the Seattle Seahawks.

He had a terrible outing, completing 19 of 30 passes for 126 yards, no touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

Of course, back at home, he’ll face a Lions defense that’s certainly not as good as the Seahawks, allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, but I still think this will be a tough matchup.

The Lions are allowing 1.87 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Still, two of the last three, which include Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys), have finished with 1 passing touchdown.

Coverage-wise, the Lions primarily play Cover 1 and Cover 3.

While it’s a small sample size, on 29 dropbacks, Brosmer is 15 of 26 (57.7%) against those for 122 yards (4.7 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

The Lions' defense has certainly been flailing the last few weeks, but they do have 3 interceptions over their last three games.

Additionally, they have 211 pressures (10th) and are facing a Vikings offensive line that’s allowed 51 sacks (3rd) and 204 pressures (tied for 11th).

It’s important to remember that Brosmer was an undrafted free agent.

These are meaningful reps for his development, no doubt, but right now, we’ll take advantage of a player prop point of view and take the under on 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Christmas Day Prediction: Kareem Hunt Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-155)

To round things out, I’m looking toward one of the Chiefs running backs.

Hunt has a couple of notable contract incentives:

• Playing Time: 50% offensive snaps, currently at 47.7%.
• Scrimmage Yards: Needs 750 for his next break-point, has 681.

So, while the opponent doesn’t bode well for massive production, he’s 69 scrimmage yards away from his next incentive and is closing in on his playing time goal.

With third-string, second-year quarterback Chris Oladokun, who played at South Florida, Samford, and South Dakota State in college, starting, the Chiefs will certainly try to utilize the running game as much as possible.

To this point, Hunt has handled 50.5% of the Chiefs’ running back carries, which leads the team.

That said, Isiah Pacheco has missed some time.

Over the last three games, it’s been more of a 54/40/6 split led by Pacheco and followed by Hunt and rookie running back Brashard Smith, respectively.

The Chiefs are massive underdogs in this game, so Oladokun may need to start letting it fly eventually, but from the start, expect the Chiefs to run plenty.

Hunt has had 6 carries or more in 12 of 15 games.

I get the hesitation with the poor quarterback play and with him on the wrong side of a timeshare, but some incentives are coming up, which teams certainly make an effort to help their player achieve, and Hunt’s time in the NFL could be coming close to the end as he’ll be turning 31 years old this coming August.

Hunt needs 69 scrimmage yards.

If he can carve out even 20 yards across six carries or more, that’ll put him in a strong spot to cap it off in Week 18 against a lousy Las Vegas Raiders team.

With these carries, that should help him arrive at the 50% offensive snap threshold, too.

Week 16 is here, and there are several massively important games, including the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams.

With that in mind, I’ll provide my three best prop bets for this week's action.

Week 16 Prediction: Philip Rivers Over 17.5 Pass Completions (-109)

I was actually somewhat surprised to see his pass completions line at 17.5.

You heard it 100 times leading up to the Week 15 game, but Rivers hadn’t played in five years before last week, is 44 years old, and was on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

He completed 18 of 27 passes (66.7%) for 120 yards (4.4 yards per attempt) for 1 touchdown, and he threw 1 interception when they had less than 20 seconds left to get down the field.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t expect Rivers to light up the stat sheet for 300 yards, but the offense is based around short completions, making it third-and-manageable, and running the ball.

Rivers also spread the ball out fairly well, completing five passes to Ameer Abdullah and three to Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs.

Rivers’ opponent this week, the San Francisco 49ers, mostly plays Cover 3 and Cover 4.

Against Cover 3 last week, Rivers completed 4 of 6 passes.

The 49ers could play more man coverage, but again, 62.9% of his pass attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage or no deeper than 9 yards downfield.

Finally, I know Rivers is a unique case given his age and only one game under his belt in five years, but opposing quarterbacks average 23.57 completions per game against the 49ers.

This season, only one quarterback has completed 16 passes or fewer against the 49ers, and that was Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold in Week 1 when he had 16 completions on 23 attempts.

It may not be pretty, but Rivers will reach at least 18 completions.

Week 16 Prediction: Jeremy Ruckert Over 1.5 Receptions (-145)

It’s confirmed: Brady Cook will be the starting quarterback once again for the Jets in Week 16 on the road against the New Orleans Saints.

Last week, in a 48-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cook completed 22 of 33 passes for 176 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.

While the Saints offense won’t be nearly as potent as the Jaguars, the Jets will still be playing from behind.

Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has been playing well, completing 70% of his passes from Week 10 on.

This all matters to Ruckert, as Cook will have to continue throwing the ball, and the conditions will be fine, just like last week in Jacksonville, as this will be played in a dome.

Against the Jaguars, Ruckert caught 2 passes on 2 targets for 13 yards.

The Saints allow 5.07 receptions per game to opposing tight ends.

There are a few other important variables to consider:

Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard caught 1 pass on 2 targets for 6 yards last week. He’s since been released.

Ruckert just signed a two-year, $10 million extension.

Fellow tight end Mason Taylor has yet to practice this week and missed last week's game.

Without Taylor on the field, Ruckert was the only tight end on the Jets to see any targets.

Fresh off the extension with no Taylor on the field, Lazard released, and against a team that the Jets will be trailing against, resulting in Cook needing to throw, Ruckert should catch a couple of passes once again.

Week 16 Prediction: Quinn Ewers Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-193)

This line of touchdown passes is actually quite surprising.

I get it: The Bengals are completely terrible, allowing 255.93 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.

But there’s a key metric in there, which is that the Bengals allow exactly 2 passing touchdowns per game.

Thus, if you were to take the over, you’d be wagering that Ewers, a seventh-round rookie quarterback who had issues with keeping his job when he was in college, will be able to come in and throw multiple touchdowns against an NFL defense.

Again, I know the Bengals are terrible, but they have held five quarterbacks to 1 passing touchdown or fewer.

Those quarterbacks include Joe Flacco, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Drake Maye, and Lamar Jackson.

While Ewers is a different quarterback than the guy he’s replacing, Tua Tagovailoa, it’s worth mentioning that Dolphins pass catchers have only scored 4 times this season against Cover 3.

The Bengals play Cover 3 far more than anything else, as opposing quarterbacks have seen it on 171 dropbacks.

The next closest is Cover 1 (96 dropbacks) and Cover 6 (94 dropbacks).

Sure, there’s a chance Ewers could dump the ball off to De’Von Achane, and he could take it to the house.

Or maybe wide receiver Jaylen Waddle outruns defenders.

But multiple touchdown passes is asking quite a lot of Ewers in this spot, regardless of the defense he’s playing against.

Here’s another fun fact: In his final season with Texas, Ewers had 1 passing touchdown or fewer in three of his final five games.

His opponents were Texas A&M, Clemson, and Georgia.

Don’t take the over, no matter how bad the Bengals defense is.

Week 15 is here, and bye weeks are in the rear-view mirror.

Here, I’ll look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 15, including a rookie quarterback.

Week 15 Prediction: Cam Ward Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-224)

Last week, I picked Ward to finish with 0 touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns, and he finished with 2.

This week, he has a much better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers have just 146 pressures this season, which is the fifth-fewest in the NFL.

When they pressure opposing quarterbacks, they have allowed 4 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

When Ward is kept clean, he’s thrown 7 of his 9 passing touchdowns this season.

Furthermore, the 49ers use a mix of coverages, with the top ones being Cover 1, Cover 3, and Cover 4.

Over his last four games, Ward has thrown 3 touchdowns against those.

The 49ers' defense has also given up at least 1 passing touchdown in nearly every game this season, with Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks being the only exception.

In fact, the 49ers allow 1.77 passing touchdowns per game, which is fifth-most in the NFL.

The player on the Titans' side I’ll be watching in this game is rookie wide receiver Chimere Dike.

Against those three coverages mentioned before, Dike has caught 26 passes on 39 targets for 117 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Additionally, Elic Ayomanor has caught 21 passes for 265 yards and a score.

The 49ers have allowed 7 touchdowns to wide receivers over their last six games.

Something else worth mentioning is that, in Week 13, before their bye week, the 49ers allowed a passing touchdown to Browns rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders in his first NFL start.

Ward has been playing better lately, and with the Titans listed at close to a 2-touchdown underdog, I expect him to throw plenty.

Week 15 Prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (-122)

The Patriots have used a running back by committee approach this season, with TreVeyon Henderson at 45.7% of the running back carries, followed by Stevenson at 35.8% and other players like Antonio Gibson, Terrell Jennings, and D’Ernest Johnson at 8.9% or less.

Of course, Gibson is out for the season, so it’s really been Stevenson and Henderson.

Over Henderson’s last five games, he’s gotten more work at 52.1% of the running back carries compared to Henderson’s 41.3%.

Stevenson is not explosive whatsoever.

In those five games, he ran 63 times for 185 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry.

Only 25.4% of his runs went for five yards or more, and 4.8% went for 10 yards or more.

He also managed just 0.24 yards before contact per rush.

Looking at his three most recent games, he’s run 32 times for 79 yards, which is 2.5 yards per carry.

In the Patriots’ 26-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12, he ran 6 times for 5 yards.

Against the Bills earlier this season in the Patriots’ 23-20 win, Stevenson did score twice, sure, but he had just 7 carries for 14 yards.

Not to mention, the Bills’ run defense has been better lately, facing 18 or fewer carries to running backs over the last two weeks and allowing 3.41 yards per carry or worse.

This game has a lot of stakes, including the Bills trying to chip away at the Patriots’ lead in the AFC East and the Patriots holding onto the division and the No. 1 overall seed.

Giving Stevenson carries is harming the football team, whereas with Henderson, he’s run 48 times for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns over his last three games.

Last week against the Giants, he averaged north of 6 yards per carry.

Stevenson takes a backseat in this massive game.

Week 15 Prediction: Keon Coleman Over 1.5 Receptions (-197)

While the odds on this prop may not be fantastic, I’m not sure how you pass it up.

This season, Coleman has had 2 catches or more in every game he has been active, even after he was benched for off-field behavior.

Over his last two games, he’s caught 4 passes on 6 targets and has even scored a touchdown.

As for the Patriots' defense, there’s been just one occasion all season where a player has been targeted twice or more and caught 1 pass or fewer, and that was back in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins and their wide receiver Malik Washington.

Coleman has a 14.7% target share this season, which is second-highest on the team and, again, that figure includes missing two games due to being benched.

While he’s boasted a 12% target share over the last two weeks, that also includes a massive performance from tight end Dawson Knox, who caught 6 passes for 93 yards last week.

For context, he hasn’t had 6 receptions in a game since Week 15 of the 2022 season against the Dolphins.

In the matchup earlier this season against the Patriots, Coleman caught 4 passes on 7 targets for 23 yards and a touchdown.

Looking at the Patriots’ coverages, they play a mix of them, but looking at the ones in which opposing quarterbacks have faced it on more than 100 dropbacks (Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3), Coleman has 36 receptions on the season.

Snag this while you can with a line of 1.5 receptions.

Week 14 is here, and so too is the final week of bye weeks.

Here, I’ll look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 14, including a rookie quarterback.

Week 14 Prediction: Kirk Cousins Over 1+ INT (-108)

Heading into this game, the Seattle Seahawks are second in the NFL in interceptions with 13, averaging 1.08 per game.

They’ve intercepted a pass in seven games this season, and last week they picked off 4 passes from Minnesota Vikings quarterback Max Brosmer.

As for Cousins, he’s made three starts this season and has 1 interception and 2 turnover-worthy plays.

Additionally, he hasn't been great under pressure in the last two seasons.

Under pressure in that timeframe, he has a completion percentage of 51.9% with 5 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 15 turnover-worthy plays.

The Seahawks are first in the NFL in pressures with 214.

In fact, they’re the only team with more than 200.

Finally, let’s examine how Cousins has performed against the coverages the Seahawks most often play: Cover 3 and Cover 6.

Dating back to 2024, here are his numbers against these coverages:

• Against Cover 3: 121 of 177 (68.4%) for 1,348 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.
• Against Cover 6: 28 of 36 (77.8%) for 279 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks.

That’s a combined line of 3 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions.

So, he has a 0.4 TD/INT ratio across 228 dropbacks.

Not only that, but the Falcons are underdogs, so he’ll be in a position to have to throw more.

An interception is coming.

Week 14 Prediction: Chase Brown Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

It’s been a rough season for the Bengals overall, but one thing is for certain: Brown is the lead back in this offense, and it’s not particularly close.

Over the course of this season, he’s received 73.7% of the running back carries.

He’s also had 49 rushing yards or more in each of his last three games and in four of his last five.

Opposing running backs are averaging 22.1 carries for 113.3 rushing yards, 5.1 yards per carry, and 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game against the Buffalo Bills.

This has been a massive area of weakness for the AFC East squad, and Brown heads into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry or better in each of his last three games.

The Bills have allowed 11 running backs to run for 49 yards or more, and of those, four have run for 106 yards or more.

The Bengals are road underdogs, but in those situations, Brown has still gotten 70% of the Bengals’ running back carries.

In games where the Bengals are simply underdogs, he’s run for 541 yards on 111 carries.

Add in the road team qualifier, and he’s still posted a respectable line of 62 carries for 262 yards (4.2 yards per carry).

Sticking with that theme, Brown has run for 49 yards or more in each of his last two road games where the Bengals were underdogs.

He ran 15 times for 78 yards against the Baltimore Ravens and 18 times for 99 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bengals called a run play just 41.3% of the time last week, but in a game like this, where you’ll want to keep the Bills and quarterback Josh Allen off the field against a horrendous Bengals defense, running the ball with Brown against an extremely beatable run defense could be an excellent game plan.

Week 14 Prediction: Cam Ward Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+132)

As soon as I saw this prop had “+” odds, I immediately began investigating, and I’m absolutely all in on this prop bet for Week 14.

This season, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft has completed 246 of 412 passes (59.7%) for 2,351 yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

Now, this week, he’ll take on a stout Browns defense that most plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.

Here’s how Ward has done against those:

• Against Cover 1: 29 of 61 (47.5%) for 348 yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
• Against Cover 3: 89 of 135 (65.9%) for 887 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

From there, I wanted to check in on how he does against pressure.

Against pressure:

• 48 of 118 (40.7%) for 598 yards, 5.1 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.

Not only that, but he’s had 0 touchdown passes in five games this season.

While the Browns allow 1.42 passing touchdowns per game, there have been two games where the opposing quarterback hasn’t thrown one.

To be fair, though, it’s not often quarterbacks have just 7 touchdown passes in Week 14.

The numbers against pressure are concerning because over the last three weeks, the Browns have led the league in pressures with 58, and Myles Garrett is hunting the sack record.

This doesn’t mesh well for a Titans team that’s seventh in pressures allowed with 177.

Again, this is a tough Browns defense, and it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see the Browns shut Ward down.

Furthermore, I don’t expect the Browns to have a big enough lead that would prompt throwing more than usual to attempt to keep up.

At +132 odds, definitely take a chance.

As we head into the weekend slate, we’ve seen four games already completed between Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.

Below, I’ll look at the three best prop bets for the remainder of the slate.

Week 13 Prediction: Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Rushing Yards (-215)

For this prop, there are two ways I want to approach this: Stafford’s historical numbers as a runner and how I think he’ll perform against this Panthers defense.

This season, Stafford has had 1 rushing yard or more in just three games, and he finished with exactly 1 in two of those.

Over his career, he’s had 92 of 233 games with fewer than 1 rushing yard.

Additionally, over the last two seasons, Stafford has recorded just 6 scrambles.

As for quarterbacks' rushing performance against the Panthers, they’ve run 53 total times, which is eight in the NFL, but they’re averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, which is the second-lowest rate.

So, they’ve tried to run, but haven’t had much success.

That said, this is Stafford we’re talking about — he doesn’t run hardly ever.

Pivoting to him as a passer, he’ll face a Panthers defense that primarily plays Cover 3.

Against that, he’s completed 73.8% of his passes for 1,105 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, and is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.

Additionally, the Panthers play zone at the seventh-highest rate, and Stafford is eighth in the NFL in passing yards versus zone with 2,004.

Finally, the Rams allow the fifth-fewest pressures (128), and the Panthers generate the fourth-fewest pressures (117).

When kept clean in the pocket, Stafford has completed 76% of his passes for 2,133 yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

What’s the TLDR? Stafford is older, he never runs the ball, and he’ll play so well against this defense in the passing game that there’s no need to scramble or run.

Week 13 Prediction: Bryce Young Over 0.5 INTs (-134)

Young has thrown 3 interceptions over his last three games, and he has 9 for the season.

Of those nine, he’s thrown 4 against Cover 3, along with completing 62% of his passes for 792 yards and 2 touchdowns.

That’s important to note because the Rams play Cover 3 (37%) more than any other coverage.

Young has thrown more interceptions against Cover 3 than any other coverage.

The next closest is Cover 1 with 2 interceptions.

While Cover 3 is what the Rams play most often, the coverage they play after Cover 3 is Cover 1 — opposing quarterbacks have seen it on 80 dropbacks.

Not only that, but the Rams are tied for fourth in the NFL in pressures with 173.

When the Rams have pressured opposing quarterbacks, they’re completing just 49.6% of their passes for 572 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

As for Young himself against pressure, he’s posted a 5.9 yards per attempt average, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

That said, he has 6 turnover-worthy plays, indicating he’s had some luck on his side.

The Rams' defense is averaging 1.09 interceptions per game and has 8 over their last four games.

Young will throw an interception in this game.

Week 13 Prediction: Max Brosmer Over 17.5 Completions (-118)

For this final prop on the Week 13 Sunday slate, I’m going to take a bit of a risk on an undrafted free agent making his first-ever NFL start.

That’s right, we’re looking at Brosmer.

A former New Hampshire product, Brosmer played his final season of college football for Minnesota.

In that final season, he completed 66% of his passes for 2,801 yards (6.9 yards per attempt), 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

His average time to throw was 2.75 seconds.

However, of his 406 attempts, 191 of them were on passes with a time to throw of 2.5 seconds or fewer.

On those, he completed 74.9% of his passes and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.

Brosmer is strictly a pocket passer, and he has extensive college experience with several seasons at New Hampshire and one at Minnesota.

Unfortunately for him, his first start is on the road against the Seattle Seahawks.

While this could be a tough place to play, he could have a decent day passing the ball.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.55 attempts (4th) and 23.73 pass completions (5t) per game.

Looking at the game logs, nine of 11 quarterbacks have completed 18 passes or more against the Seahawks.

This may be his first start ever, and it may also be on the road, but opposing quarterbacks are averaging 25.6 completions against the Seahawks at home.

The Seahawks offense is so great that other teams are forced to throw.

Again, sure, this is an undrafted rookie, but he has a capable pass-catching back in Aaron Jones at his disposal and one of the best wide receivers in football, Justin Jefferson, to deliver passes to.

Here’s what I expect.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell will design a game plan that plays to Brosmer’s strengths: standing back in the pocket and getting rid of the ball quickly, using the short passing game as an extension of the run game.

The yards per attempt won’t be high, and the final passing yardage total may not be either, but Brosmer will complete 18 passes or more.

We not only have Thanksgiving Day on Thursday but also three NFL games: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals.

Let's look at the best prop bets for Thanksgiving Day, with one from each game.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Jordan Love’s game logs are quite interesting.

He’s either passed for 259 yards or more or 188 yards or less — there’s nothing in between.

He’s thrown for 259 yards or more in five of 11 games, and after this Thanksgiving Day affair, it’ll be six out of 12.

The Lions defense primarily plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.

Against those coverages this season, Love is 118 of 182 for 1,419 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

For context, this is his stat line this season: 224 of 331 for 2,560 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

If you look at his gamelogs and against Cover 1 and Cover 3 only, he’s thrown for 229 yards or more in two games.

This is important to note because it’s not as if Love will face Cover 1 and/or Cover 3 100% of the time.

There have been 404 opposing quarterback dropbacks against the Lions, and Cover 1 and Cover 3 make up about 61% of what quarterbacks have seen.

In Week 1 against the Lions' Cover 1 and Cover 3, Love had 156 passing yards and finished with 188 total.

However, the Packers had a substantial lead in that game, and throwing wasn’t as necessary.

Not only that, but Week 1 around the NFL tends to have sluggish offenses.

All that being said, opposing quarterbacks average 19.27 completions on 31.64 attempts for 226.09 yards and 1.82 passing touchdowns against the Lions.

Opposing quarterbacks have hit 229 passing yards or more in five of 11 games against them, and one quarterback hit 228.

Last week, the Lions' defense surrendered 366 passing yards to New York Giants quarterback Jameis Winston.

I expect a bit more of a shootout here, which will help elevate Love’s passing numbers, especially with a downfield threat like Christian Watson, who could get a massive chunk of this line on a single catch.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-190)

This season, Mahomes has completed 262 of 407 passes for 2,977 yards, 7.3 yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.

Keep this in mind. That’s important context to lead with.

Why? The Cowboys primarily play Cover 2 and Cover 3.

Yes, they’ve had an atrocious defense this season, but against those coverages, Mahomes has completed 99 of 137 passes for 1,358 yards, 9.9 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

So, of the 18 touchdown passes, only 2 all season long have come against Cover 2 and Cover 3.

He’s thrown 11 touchdowns against Cover 0 and Cover 1, and the Cowboys don’t play that hardly ever.

Opposing quarterbacks have seen that on only 69 of 431 dropbacks (16%).

The Cowboys do allow 2.18 touchdown passes per game, and five quarterbacks have had 3 or more touchdown passes.

In each of the last three games, though, they’ve allowed 2 touchdowns or fewer in each, including 1 in each of their last two.

Mahomes himself has thrown 3 touchdowns or more in four of 11 games this season, but has just 1 passing touchdown over his last three games total.

Additionally, tight end Travis Kelce leads the team with an 18.7% target share.

With Rashee Rice on the field, he’s second at 18.4%.

The Cowboys defense is allowing just 0.27 touchdowns per game to tight ends, allowing just 3 all season.

Also, keep in mind that the Cowboys now have Quinnen Williams, and other players like promising rookie cornerback Shavon Revel are continuing to get more involved with the defense.

3 passing touchdowns are a lot for anyone.

Yes, the Cowboys defense has been terrible, but they’ve been playing a bit better recently, and this isn’t exactly the most feared Chiefs offense we’ve seen.

Take the under.

Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Mark Andrews Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

This line for Andrews may seem modest, but this season, he’s only reached 40 yards or more once.

Of course, a big part of that is that the team was without quarterback Lamar Jackson for several games.

But that said, since Jackson came back against the Miami Dolphins, the highest he’s hit is 32 yards.

However, this is a fantastic spot for him.

The Bengals are allowing 10.09 targets, 6.91 receptions, 87.45 receiving yards, and 1.18 touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Those are the most in each respective category.

This season, Andrews is second in target share at 16.7%.

With Jackson on the field, he’s still second at 16.9%.

He’s caught 22 of a possible 32 passes for 201 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He’s run a route on 69.6% of Jackson’s dropbacks, which is notably higher than fellow tight end Isaiah Likely’s 50.3%.

Over the last three games, his target share is second on the team at 17.8%.

He’s caught 7 passes for 55 yards.

Conversely, Likely is at a 13.7% target share, catching 5 passes for 42 yards.

It’s also worth noting that the Bengals predominantly play Cover 3.

Against that, Andrews has 10 receptions for 86 yards.

Looking over each coverage this season, those receptions are tied for the most, and the yards are second.

Something else to consider is that Joe Burrow will be back in the lineup for the Bengals.

The defense will continue to be terrible, but Burrow has a great chance of making this game into a bit more of a shootout, which will bode well for Andrews.

The production hasn’t been there this season in terms of 40 yards or more, but this spot is too good to pass up.

Week 12 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills.

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 12, including a player from that game.

Week 12 Prediction: Dawson Knox Under 2.5 Receptions (-112)

The Bills will be without tight end Dalton Kincaid once again due to his hamstring injury.

They’ll also be without wide receivers Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck), Mecole Hardman (calf), and, reportedly, Keon Coleman (disciplinary).

I’m still taking the under on Knox’s receptions at 2.5.

Sure, those players are out, but Knox caught just one pass on three targets for 23 yards in Week 11, boasting a pedestrian 10% team target share.

Over the course of this season, his target share is at just 7.2%.

Additionally, looking over the game logs, the Texans have held the leading tight end on opposing teams to 2 or fewer catches on five of 11 occasions.

Going further, without Kincaid on the field over the last three seasons, Knox has a target share of just 12.7%.

In that same span, he also has just 17 catches against Cover 3, the coverage the Texans most often play.

Those 17 catches came on nearly 230 routes.

The point is that the Bills don’t use him in the passing game whatsoever.

Whether Kincaid is on the field or not, Knox is not getting enough looks to make him a reliable enough option to take the over.

Week 12 Prediction: Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-210)

For my final NFL player prop for this week's slate, I’ll take one that I’d consider a layup with Goff at more than 1.5 passing touchdowns.

While he fell short of this mark last week, that was against a pretty tough Philadelphia Eagles defense on the road.

Over the course of this season, he’s thrown 2 touchdowns or more in six of 10 games.

Of those six games, half were at home.

Now, at home, he’ll take on a New York Giants defense that’s allowing 1.73 passing touchdowns per game.

They’ve allowed 2 or more in four of their last five games.

The only player to fall short was Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.

Looking at their coverage, the Giants primarily deploy Cover 1 and Cover 3, and Goff has manhandled those looks all season.

When facing them, he’s completing 66.5% of his passes for 1,358 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, and just 1 interception.

For context, he’s completed 69.7% of his passes for 2,490 yards, 8 yards per attempt, 21 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions overall this season.

What about in games in which he’s favored?

He’s completing 69% of his passes for 857 yards, 10.2 yards per attempt, and 9 touchdowns.

Not only that, but I do expect Jaxson Dart under center for the Giants this week, and his rushing ability could help the Giants hang around longer than you’d expect.

This would help put Goff in a positive game script to continue passing the ball.

Goff’s top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown, has also done extremely well against man coverage this season, catching 22 passes for 237 yards and 6 touchdowns — he has 8 total on the year.

The odds don’t provide top-tier value or anything at -210, but this feels like an excellent addition to a parlay.

Goff should have a great bounce-back game here.

Week 11 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the New England Patriots host the New York Jets.

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 11, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.

Week 11 Prediction: Drake Maye Under 0.5 INTs (-167)

While Maye has been on a bit of an interception streak, throwing 1 in each of his last three games with 5 on the season, I’ll take the under.

Yes, he’s been a bit sporadic, throwing 1 interception against the Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Still, the Jets are dealing with some notable injuries and have traded away prominent defenders.

Before the trade deadline, the Jets traded away cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.

Sauce was excellent pass coverage, and Williams provided some pressure while also excelling in the run game.

Now, heading into this game, they may be without edge rusher Will McDonald IV (questionable), who leads the team in pressures with 23.

Speaking of pressures, the Jets generate the fewest in the league with 89 total this season.

When kept clean in the pocket, Maye is completing 78.6% of his passes for 15 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and has 4 turnover-worthy plays.

The Jets haven’t intercepted a single pass all season, and they’ve only dropped 3.

The Jets’ pass coverage unit has also collectively allowed a 68.2% reception rate.

Although Maye has some statistics that point toward a possible interception, such as his recent run of them, the Jets are without numerous prominent defensive players, either via trade or injury, and Maye shouldn’t have much of an issue against them.

Not only that, but the Patriots are 12.5 or 13-point favorites depending on where you look.

Will he even need to throw the ball that much?

The odds don’t provide a ton of value at -167, but it’s a safe bet.

Week 11 Prediction: Rashee Rice Under 8.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

I always enjoy investigating these wide receiver rushing props, and for this one, I’m taking the under on Rice at 8.5.

Over the last two Chiefs games, Weeks 8 and 9, Rice did clear this number once.

He ran twice in Week 8 for 12 yards.

In Week 9, he followed that up with 2 carries for 6 yards.

Part of this has been creative playcalling, to be sure, but also the Chiefs' running game out of the backfield is simply not effective.

In Week 11, running back Isiah Pacheco is questionable and hasn’t practiced this week.

If he were to suit up, I’d feel even more confident in the under.

This season, the Broncos are allowing just 2.2 rushing yards per game to receivers, which is 22nd in the NFL.

In all, they’ve allowed 22 rushing yards on 6 carries.

In Week 10, Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker had 1 carry and 7 yards.

This season, only one receiver has hit 9 rushing yards, and that was Chimere Dike of the Tennessee Titans in Week 1.

Digging into the carries against the Broncos further, 5 of the 6 have come in the first quarter.

As for Rice’s carries in Week 8 specifically, he had a seven-yard run in the second quarter in the red zone that was initially ruled a touchdown, but called back to the one-yard line.

The other came in the third quarter on a five-yard run.

Speaking of the red zone, the Broncos allow just 2.4 yards per carry in the red zone.

Of course, that’s comprised of running backs, but they certainly tighten up against running plays down there.

Rice is a unique weapon that can pick this up with one jet sweep, but 9 rushing yards is too high for me to feel comfortable taking the over.

Week 11 Prediction: Davis Mills Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-165)

It looks like Mills is in line to start once again in Week 11 for the concussed C.J. Stroud, and his opponent this week will be none other than the Tennessee Titans, a team the Texans beat 26-0 earlier this season.

Over his career against the Titans, Mills has three starts and has been subbed on in one game, which happened last season in the first quarter.

In those contests, he has completed 61.6% of his passes for 759 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

In that appearance last season, he completed 12 of 22 passes for 128 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions.

This season, the Titans play Cover 3 more than anything else — 28% of opposing quarterback dropbacks.

Over his career, Mills has completed 67% of his passes against that coverage, but he has just 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 324 attempts.

That works out to about 46 attempts per passing touchdown.

Across 27 starts, Mills has reached 2 touchdowns or more in just 12 games.

Additionally, the Titans are allowing just 1.56 passing touchdowns per game, and four out of nine signal-callers have thrown 1 or fewer.

Look for the Texans defense to make the Titans offense inept once again and for Mills not to really have to do too much in this one for the Texans to get the win on the road.

Week 10 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Denver Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders.

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 10, including Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren, Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold.

Week 10 Prediction: Tyler Warren Under 4.5 Receptions (-132)

Heading into Week 10, Warren is averaging 4.6 catches per game, but has finished with 4 or fewer catches in five games and just went over this line with five in two games.

The team traded away wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, and without him on the field, Warren’s numbers in the offense are slightly different.

He’s fourth on the team in team target share at 20.3%, trailing Michael Pittman (22.9%), Alec Pierce (22.6%), and Josh Downs (20.5%).

Additionally, over the last three weeks, with Mitchell off the field, his target share has dropped to 16.7%, resulting in just 12 catches during that span.

Pierce and Pittman have been seeing the bulk of the targets lately, with both players at or above a 27.1% target share.

Not only that, but he’s taking on a Falcons defense that allows a league-low 3.62 targets, 2.12 catches, and 0.12 touchdowns per game to tight ends.

In fact, no tight end has caught five passes against them in any game this season.

The closest was Hunter Henry of the New England Patriots last week with 4.

Warren isn’t like any other tight end, ranking second in receiving yards at the position, but the Falcons defense has been strong against tight ends, and his target share has been down a bit lately.

Perhaps this being an international game in Germany could change up some things, but there’s not a lot of data pointing toward taking the over, despite the excellent odds if you were to do so of +120.

Week 10 Prediction: Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+150)

For my next prop, I’m taking a swing on Darnold to finish with 1 passing touchdown or fewer.

The odds are enticing at +150, and there’s some evidence to suggest it’s possible.

The Cardinals have allowed 1 passing touchdown or fewer in six of nine games this season, including Week 4, which was a home game for them against Darnold and the Seahawks.

In that game, Darnold threw for 242 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions.

In fact, the Cardinals allow just 1.12 passing touchdowns per game, which is the seventh-fewest in the NFL.

Darnold attempted 26 passes in that game, which was the fifth-most he’s attempted among the eight games he’s played.

Including the Cardinals game, Darnold has finished with 1 passing touchdown or fewer in three of eight games.

Of those three, two were home games.

The Cardinals also surrender just 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game to running backs (tied for fifth-fewest), 0.50 to wide receivers (tied for third-fewest), and 0.38 to tight ends (tied for fifth-fewest).

The touchdowns allowed per game to receivers could play a role, considering his No. 1 target is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL in receiving yards.

Defensively, the Cardinals play Cover 3 more than anything else.

Against it, Darnold has thrown just 4 touchdowns all season and is completing 64.5% of his passes.

In that Week 4 game, he was 5 of 8 passing for 57 yards and 0 touchdown passes against the Cardinals’ Cover 3.

The Seahawks recently traded for wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, and while he’ll be an excellent field stretcher, he has just 2 touchdowns this season.

One of them came on an 87-yard touchdown pass.

However, the Cardinals haven’t allowed a single touchdown this season in which the pass had more than 15 air yards.

The Cardinals turning to quarterback Jacoby Brissett could mean they’ll have a more competent offense, which could mean the Seahawks will need to throw more, but given the odds, there’s enough here to convince me to throw at least a half-unit wager on the under.

Week 10 Prediction: Daniel Jones Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-115)

For the final prop, I’m leaning under on Jones’ passing yards at 244.5.

Heading into this game, Jones has only finished under this line in three of nine games.

However, he’s taking on a Falcons defense that’s allowing just 174.75 passing yards per game, which is the fewest in the NFL.

Only one quarterback, Drake Maye of the New England Patriots, has thrown for 245 yards or more, and that happened only last week.

Outside of Maye, only six quarterbacks have even surpassed 200 yards.

The Falcons’ primary pass coverage is Cover 3, and they also blitz at the fourth-highest rate (opposing quarterbacks have faced their blitz on 107 dropbacks).

When the Falcons play Cover 3 and send the blitz (five or more rushers), opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt and completing under 60% of their passes.

As for Jones in those circumstances, he’s 17 of 32 (53.1%) for 264 yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, no touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Digging a bit deeper, the two routes that Jones has targeted most often are hitches and out routes.

The Falcons defense is holding quarterbacks to a yards per attempt average of 6.2 on hitches and 5.7 on out routes.

Additionally, the Falcons defense is far worse against the run, allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game (10th-fewest), and the Colts have the best running back in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor.

Given how consistent the Falcons have been overall this season against the pass and their run defense deficiency against a running back of Taylor’s caliber, Jones may not need to throw as much.

Week 9 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens.

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 9, including Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell, and Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones.

Week 9 Prediction: Aaron Jones Under 8.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

Looking at another running back, I’m taking the under on Jones’ rush attempts at 8.5 in his second game back since getting injured and landing on injured reserve in Week 2.

Across Weeks 1, 2, and 8 — games in which Jones, Zavier Scott, and Jordan Mason were all healthy and playing — Mason saw 58.3% of the running back carries to Jones’ 37.5% and Scott’s 4.2%.

In Week 8, a 27-point loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, Jones led the way with a 45.5% running back carry share, but in this case, that was just 5 totes for 15 yards.

Mason finished with 3 yards on 4 carries, and Scott had 16 yards on 2 carries.

It was just a rough day running the ball overall.

Now, the Vikings are facing a Lions defense that allows 16.57 carries (second fewest), 65.86 rushing yards (third fewest), and less than four yards per carry per game to opposing running backs.

The Vikings are 8.5-point underdogs and have J.J. McCarthy back under center for the first time since he sprained his ankle in Week 2.

Honestly, it’s a pretty realistic possibility that we see another incredibly poor stat line across the board from these running backs.

Shoot, even going back to Week 1, when everyone was healthy and playing, Jones still had just eight carries and had 29 yards.

Right now, it would take the Vikings playing with a substantial lead or a Mason injury for Jones to see this kind of playing time or volume.

Week 9 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa 1+ Interception (-133)

Heading into this game, the Dolphins and Tagovailoa actually had a great game, beating the Atlanta Falcons 34-10.

In the game, Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes for 205 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Yes, it was a great game, but to be honest, a broken clock is right twice per day.

In the two games before that, Tagovailoa had just 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions.

Now, on Thursday Night Football, Tagovailoa will face a Ravens defense that has struggled but is improving slightly.

They had an interception last week against the Chicago Bears and held Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to 181 passing yards on 26 attempts.

That’s not to say they’re on the level they were in the second half of last year, but hey, an improvement is something at this point.

Defensively, the Ravens play Cover 1 and Cover 3 on just over 60% of opponent dropbacks.

Against these coverages, Tagovailoa has had a rough go of it, completing 55 of 97 passes (56.7%) with 6.6 yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

Additionally, this season, Tagovailoa has thrown half of his interceptions while trailing by up to seven points.

That’s a key number because the Ravens are favored by 7.5 points.

Not only that, but in the five games the Dolphins have been underdogs, Tagovailoa has thrown 9 of his 10 interceptions.

While Tagovailoa had a good game last week and the Ravens defense hasn’t been fantastic, he’ll likely be in a position playing from behind and be forced to throw against coverages he has struggled against.

Week 9 Prediction: Keaton Mitchell Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

In that same game, I’m looking toward Mitchell, a backup running back for the Ravens.

The Ravens will have quarterback Lamar Jackson finally back in the lineup.

This will provide a massive boost to the passing game, and Jackson will also handle his fair share of carries.

That said, over the last three games, all without Jackson, Derrick Henry is handling 80% of running back carries, while Justice Hill is at 10.7% and Mitchell is at 9.3%.

Over that span, Mitchell has just 4 carries, and all of them were in Week 8.

In a 30-16 win over the Bears, Mitchell ran for 43 yards on 4 carries.

In Week 5, his first game of the season, Mitchell had 3 carries for eight yards.

As for this week's opponent, the Dolphins do allow a lot of production to running backs, including 23.5 carries, 117.62 rushing yards, and 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game.

This also includes 5.01 yards per carry.

For what it’s worth, though, the Dolphins allowed just 43 total rushing yards to Atlanta Falcons running backs last week, and held Bijan Robinson to 25 yards on 9 carries.

While Mitchell had a nice game on limited touches last week, that’s not exactly the most reliable data.

In 2024, he played just five games and had 15 carries for 30 yards.

It’s hard to back him here.

There’s a scenario in which he gets 3 carries, for example, and gets over the mark, but it is also possible that he does not touch the ball at all.

With Henry playing well over the last two weeks and Jackson back in the lineup to eat up some carries and actually move the ball through the air, Mitchell’s number may not be called enough to reach this mark.

Week 8 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Minnesota Vikings.

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 8, including Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle, and Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins.

Week 8 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-113) + Over 0.5 INTs (-151)

With this one, I’m doubling down on how bad I think Tagovailoa will be.

This season, Tagovailoa has had 202 passing yards or fewer in four of seven games.

In one of the games he went over, he barely did, passing for 205.

This week, he’ll face a Falcons defense that’s allowed a league-low 155.67 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Josh Allen has the most passing yards against them this season, and that was 180 yards.

Going further, the Falcons defense primarily plays Cover 3.

Opposing quarterbacks have seen it on 89 of their dropbacks.

Against Cover 3 specifically, Tagovailoa has been horrendous.

These numbers are so poor that I had to refresh the page to ensure there wasn’t a bug.

These are the stats: 54.1% completion rate, 398 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

Yes, 8 interceptions. He has 10 this season.

That’s absurd.

The Falcons also average 1 interception per game, which makes Tagovailoa’s line that much more perplexing.

Now, let’s examine the games in which Tagovailoa went over 202 passing yards.

• Week 2 vs. New England Patriots: Only faced Cover 3 on 6 dropbacks
• Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: Averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt against Cover 3 (11 dropbacks)
• Week 6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2 interceptions versus Cover 3

Tagovailoa is in for a rough game, and I’m slamming the unders.

Week 8 Prediction: Rico Dowdle 12+ Carries (-133)

Dowdle has been on a rampage lately, rushing 70 times for 468 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and 1 touchdown over the last three games.

In Weeks 5 and 6, he had 53 carries for 389 yards and a touchdown.

Of course, that was without fellow running back Chuba Hubbard in the lineup due to injury.

In Hubbard’s first game back, he did outsnap Dowdle 38-33.

However, Dowdle led the way with 17 carries to Hubbard’s 14.

Not only did Dowdle get more carries, but he was far more efficient.

Dowdle ran 17 times for 79 yards, whereas Hubbard ran 14 times for 31 yards.

Having Dowdle on the field is better for the Panthers if they want a chance at upsetting the Bills as a 7.5-point home underdog with Andy Dalton under center.

He’s straight up the better running back right now, and the Bills are vulnerable to opposing running games.

This season, they’re allowing 116 rushing yards per game to the position, which is third-most in the NFL.

Opposing running backs are also averaging 21.33 attempts per game.

We've seen some running back tandems go up against the Bills before, including the Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

For the Falcons, both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier had double-digit carries, while Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller each had at least 11.

I expect Dowdle to be in the Robinson and Kamara realm, meaning he should be the one seeing the majority of the carries.

Of course, Hubbard will still get work, but if Hubbard can’t generate production, the Panthers will have to look toward Dowdle even more.

Dowdle had 17 carries last week despite being outsnapped, and 12 carries is a reasonable line to reach despite them being such heavy underdogs.

Week 8 Prediction: Quinshon Judkins Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Last week, I took the over on Judkins at 85.5 rushing yards, and he finished with 84.

I’m not mad, just disappointed.

This time, I’m taking the under, and no, it’s not only because he fell short of my pick last week.

However, some underlying numbers helped me get to this prediction.

Judkins has been great this season.

He’s finished with fewer than 70 yards just twice.

However, he’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry in half of his games.

While he had 84 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns last week against the lowly Dolphins, he did it on 25 carries (3.4 yards per carry).

Now, he’ll face a New England Patriots defense on the road that’s allowing just 59 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.

In fact, no single running back hit 70 yards against the Patriots.

Going further, when trailing by 0-7 points (the Browns are 7-point underdogs), Judkins has had 44 carries for 166 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

Something else to consider is that Judkins has received 88% of his carries in the first half.

Thus, if he’s under 70 rushing yards at halftime, you can feel fairly confident that he’ll finish under this line.

Not only that, but his yards per carry drop dramatically after the first quarter:

• First quarter: 63 carries for 316 yards (5.0 yards per carry), and 3 touchdowns.
• Second quarter: 33 carries for 119 yards (3.6 yards per carry), and 1 touchdown.
• Third quarter: 8 carries for 20 yards (2.5 yards per carry).
• Fourth quarter: 5 carries for 12 yards (2.4 yards per carry), and 1 touchdown.

The Patriots have a fantastic run defense, and while Judkins gets a bunch of work, he’s quite inefficient.

Pass.

Week 7 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 7, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.

Week 7 Prediction: Noah Fant 25+ Receiving Yards (-130)

Week 6 marked the first game with Joe Flacco under center for the Bengals, and in that game, Fant caught 4 passes on 4 targets for 27 yards.

He had just a 10% team target share, trailing fellow tight end Tanner Hudson (12.5%), but his other metrics were far more promising than what Hudson showed.

Fant ran a route on 50% of Flacco’s dropbacks compared to Hudson’s 26.4%.

Additionally, Fant posted a 1.23 yards per route run average to Hudson’s 0.63.

Finally, Fant’s targets averaged 2.75 air yards, while Hudson’s were just 1.20.

So, while Fant got 1 fewer target, the type of targets he was getting points more toward receiving yardage production upside versus Hudson’s.

Fant also ran 22 routes in Week 6, a noticeable increase from just 30 over the previous three games.

More importantly, the Bengals will be without Hudson this week as he suffered a concussion against the Packers.

They’re also set to be without another tight end, Mike Gesicki, who was placed on injured reserve with a pectoral injury.

It’s also worth mentioning that Fant and Flacco have a bit of a history.

Flacco started eight games before landing on injured reserve for the Denver Broncos during the 2019-20 season, which was Fant’s rookie season.

In those first eight weeks, he had five games with 25 yards or more.

Sure, that’s a stretch, but that history is there.

As for their opponent, the Steelers allow the second-most receiving yards to tight ends per game at 71.8.

They’ve allowed seven tight ends to hit the 25-yard threshold, including multiple tight ends in three games.

The only tight ends that fell short were the New York Jets in Week 1, but that was in their first game with a new head coach, new quarterback, and new tight end room (Mason Taylor caught one pass for 20 yards).

Without Hudson and Gesicki on the field and with a quarterback he has rapport with against a defense that struggles versus tight ends, I’ll take a chance on Fant to finish with 25 yards or more.

Week 7 Prediction: Bryce Young Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Young is coming off one of the better games of his career against the Dallas Cowboys, completing 68% of his passes for 199 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

I’m taking the under in Week 7 at 198.5 on the road against the New York Jets.

So far this season, Young has finished with 198 yards or less in all but two games.

The two games include the 199 against the Cowboys and 328 on the road against the Arizona Cardinals.

However, for context, in that game against the Cardinals, Young and the Carolina Panthers were down by multiple scores, so almost all of that production came in garbage time.

On the road this season, Young is 71 of 120 (59.17%) for 632 yards, 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and averages 5.77 yards per attempt.

Keep in mind that, of those 632 yards, 328 came against the Cardinals.

He had 154 yards or fewer in each of the other two road games.

Not only that, but over his career, Young has been abysmal on the road, going just 1-17 and finishing with 199 yards or more in just seven of 18 games.

Also, the Jets are allowing just 207.5 passing yards per game.

Three quarterbacks have finished with 198 yards or less, including Josh Allen, Bo Nix, and Tua Tagovailoa.

Additionally, the Panthers' running game has really emerged, with Rico Dowdle and fellow running back Chuba Hubbard, who should be back in the lineup this week.

Between the Jets defense, Young’s ineptitude on the road, and having another running back return, I expect Young to finish well under 198 yards.

Week 7 Prediction: Quinshon Judkins Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Heading into this week, Judkins has run 84 times for 383 yards (4.6 yards per carry) and 2 rushing touchdowns.

This comes after he missed Week 1 and was worked into the backfield in Week 2, where he carried the ball just 10 times but gained 61 yards.

From Week 3 on, Judkins has garnered 84.1% of the Browns’ running back carries with 74 of them for 322 yards and 4.4 yards per carry.

Now, he’s taking on a Miami Dolphins team that allows 24 rush attempts (fifth-most) for 134.33 yards (first) and 5.60 yards per carry (second) per game to running backs.

Last week, they allowed 124 rushing yards to Los Angeles Chargers running back Kimani Vidal, and the week before that, they allowed 206 to Dowdle.

As for Judkins, he’s only finished with 86 yards or more twice (did have one game with 82 yards), but keep in mind, this is despite the Browns calling run plays just 34.64% of the time, which is the second-lowest rate in the NFL.

Not only that, but also keep in mind that he finished with 86 yards or more in games where the final score was within one score.

Every other game, the Browns lost by at least 14.

Why is that? Well, they’re always losing and unable to turn to the run like they should.

Now they’re taking on a Dolphins team as a home favorite.

This hasn’t happened yet to the Browns this season.

Given Judkins’ production when the Browns are underdogs, trailing often, and despite a low run play call percentage and how bad the Dolphins defense has been against running backs, I expect Judkins to get plenty of attempts to run wild on them.

I’d even go as far as to say that he’ll have 100 yards or more.

Week 6 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the New York Giants host the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 6, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.

Week 6 Prediction: Cam Skattebo Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

The Giants are hosting the Eagles on a short week, and in that game, I’m taking the under on Skattebo’s rushing yards at a line of 49.5 in a game where the Giants are 7-point underdogs.

So far this season, Skattebo is averaging 48 rushing yards per game and averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

Heading into this game, Skattebo will also have more competition for carries as Tyrone Tracy Jr. is back in the lineup.

Skattebo and Tracy were in a near 50-50 timeshare before Tracy's injury.

Skattebo got 43.4% of the carries, and Tracy got 41.5% of them.

In those games, Skattebo averaged 7.6 carries per game, which included 10 in Week 3 when Tracy got injured.

In the two weeks following his injury, Skattebo posted the following stat totals:

• Week 4: 25 carries for 79 yards (3.2 yards per carry).
• Week 5: 15 carries for 59 yards (3.9 yards per carry).

Across those two games, he averaged 20 carries for 69 yards (2.9 yards per carry).

Yeah, not exactly efficient.

However, he did get 75.5% of the running back carries compared to Devin Singletary, who got just 24.5%.

Going further into his production during Tracy's absence, only 2.5% of his carries went for 10 yards or more.

This is important because the likelihood of him busting a longer run to help into this line is minimal.

Additionally, 22 of his 40 carries went between a three-yard loss and a three-yard gain.

More than 50% of his carries were for minimal gains.

Something else that’s important is how much work he got when the team was trailing.

Considering the Giants are 7-point underdogs, that could be early and often.

In Weeks 4 and 5, Skattebo got just 8 carries when the Giants were trailing by a point or more.

Furthermore, when down by seven points or more, he had just 2 carries.

So, not only is Skattebo highly inefficient, but the running back he was in a near 50-50 timeshare with is back, and when the team is losing, he’s not getting a bunch of action.

I’ll take the under.

Week 6 Prediction: Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (+113)

In Week 6, the New York Jets and Denver Broncos will square off in London.

In that game, I’m taking Wilson to have six catches or more.

Of course, any time you can get “+” odds, that’s going to make a wager more appealing, but this is one to feel confident in.

The Jets will be without wide receiver Allen Lazard.

Without him on the field, Wilson has a 36% target share.

Additionally, without Lazard, Wilson runs a route on 99.2% of his quarterback's dropbacks.

With such a massive target share, Wilson has caught 6 passes or more in four of five games.

That includes each of his last three, and quarterback Justin Fields was throwing him passes in two of those.

The Broncos defense primarily plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.

These make up about 55.8% of the coverage opposing quarterbacks see against them.

Against Cover 1 and Cover 3 this season, Wilson has caught 13 passes, which is close to 40% of his receptions this season (33).

Going further, Wilson runs hitches (41) and out routes (32) more than anything else.

This is important because against those two routes, the Broncos have allowed 35 completions on 43 attempts (81.4%).

That said, any time you examine a game against the Broncos, especially involving a team’s No. 1 wide receiver, you have to account for Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II.

Looking back at the Jets and Broncos game last season, there were some obvious differences: the Jets had Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, for one, but that was also a terrible game weather-wise.

The Broncos won 10-9.

In that game, Wilson had 5 catches with 3 coming against Surtain.

Surtain himself has never allowed 6 catches to any single receiver in his entire career.

However, as we saw last season, Surtain is, of course, most often assigned to the No. 1 target, but Wilson will get matchups against other Broncos defenders.

Additionally, the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs, which is the perfect game script for throwing the ball frequently.

No, Fields isn’t exactly the greatest passer in the world, but get this: Fields’ best game as a passer came in Week 4 of the 2023 season against the Broncos.

He completed 28 of 35 passes for 335 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

This will be a difficult matchup for Wilson, given the target share volume and the Jets being sizable underdogs.

I think Wilson will get ample targets and reach the 6-reception mark.