Sorting through the endless list of prop bets available for Super Bowl 60 is a challenge, so we're here to help.

Here are a few of my favorite Seahawks props to bet for Super Bowl 60.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Super Bowl 60 Seahawks Prediction: Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP (+120)

Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks from the winning team.

Darnold has garnered attention as a potential redemption story after the Vikings moved on from the quarterback in the offseason, which can help propel his chances to win a media-voted, narrative-based award.

Darnold’s mistakes are often highlighted, but the Seahawks have the highest dropback success rate this season.

The Patriots have stifled opposing rushing attacks in the playoffs, increasing the odds that Seahawks offensive success will come on the back of Darnold.

A Seahawks victory without multiple turnovers from Darnold provides a nice opportunity to boost a Seahawks victory compared to the moneyline.

Super Bowl 60 Seahawks Prediction: A.J. Barner Anytime Touchdown (+240)

The sophomore tight end finished the season with 6 receiving touchdowns and added another on the ground.

Barner has cemented a key red zone role in the passing game, but he also comes with the added benefit of usage in short-yardage situations.

Barner was used for 10 short-yardage rush situations throughout the season, converting on 90%.

That gives him an added out if the Seahawks are on the one-yard line.

Revisionist history, but the Seahawks would love a play from the one-yard line with a 90% success rate with the Super Bowl on the line against the Patriots.

Barner is second on the Seahawks with 5 end zone targets this season.

That is important because with Milton Williams on the field this season, 81.3% of the touchdowns against the Patriots have been passing touchdowns.

The Darnold-Barner connection has been solid this year.

Barner’s targets have a 76.4% completion rate.

More Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet Coverage:

Sorting through the endless list of prop bets available for Super Bowl 60 is a challenge, so we're here to help.

Here are a few of my favorite Patriots props to bet for Super Bowl 60.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Super Bowl 60 Patriots Prediction: Drake Maye 32+ Pass Attempts (+113)

• Longshot: Drake Maye 40+ Pass Attempts (+690)

Game state plays a large role in how the opposition decides to attack.

The Seahawks faced 600 pass attempts, an average of 35.3 pass attempts per game and the fifth most in the league despite ranking fourth in defensive pass success rate and first in DVOA.

The Patriots were tied or trailed at halftime twice all season.

In those two games, Maye had 44 and 37 pass attempts.

The Patriots are 5-point underdogs and face arguably the most difficult opponent of the season, which could push the Patriots to lean on Maye.

In the regular season, seven quarterbacks attempted more than 40 passes against the Seahawks, providing value to this longshot.

Super Bowl 60 Patriots Prediction: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Stevenson has run a route on 56.9% of dropbacks in the postseason, up more than 5% from his regular season average.

Seahawks opponents targeted running backs on 21.2% of passes, the only team with a target rate over 20%, leading to a league high 7.5 running back targets per game against.

Including the playoffs, opposing running backs have been targeted 4 or more times in 18 of 19 games against the Seahawks.

Stevenson has dramatic splits depending on the defensive formation.

When the middle of the field is closed post-snap, Stevenson averages 0.77 yards per route.

That increases to 1.98 yards per route against the post-snap middle of the field open.

The Seahawks ranked third in the rate of 2-high coverages this season, giving Stevenson a small bump in this matchup.

Super Bowl 60 Patriots Prediction: Austin Hooper Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Hooper has played a limited role in the three playoff games for the Patriots, running a route on just 27.5% of the dropbacks.

The Patriots offense has leaned on using diverse personnel packages, lining up in 11 personnel on only 50.1% of snaps.

The Patriots have used 21 personnel at the fourth-highest rate in the league.

However, the Seahawks defense ranks first in EPA per play against 21 personnel, and the Patriots are more successful with three wide receivers or two tight ends on the field.

Hooper has been on the field for 92.3% of the passing plays in the playoffs when the Patriots line up with two tight ends on the field in either 12 or 22 personnel.

This is important because the Seahawks have been less dominant against multiple tight end sets this season.

Hooper’s on-field rate could increase as a result, and he averaged 12.5 yards per reception this season.

Ideally, Hooper only needs 1 reception to go over the total.

However, in the seven regular season games this season he had with 2 receptions or more, he cleared this receiving total in every game.

More Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet Coverage:

Sorting through the endless list of prop bets available for Super Bowl 60 is a challenge, so we're here to help.

Here are a few of my favorite longshot props to bet for Super Bowl 60.

Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.

Super Bowl 60 Longshot Prediction: Sam Darnold & Drake Maye Pass Completions & Pass Attempts

• Sam Darnold 24+ Completions & Drake Maye 24+ Completions (+1200)
• Sam Darnold 32+ Pass Attempts & Drake Maye 32+ Pass Attempts (+600)

The quarterback longshots are based on the fact that both teams have incredible run defenses.

Also, both offenses are elite when throwing the ball and less successful when running the ball.

Including the playoffs, this matchup features the top two passing offenses in the league in terms of success rate.

The Seahawks rank first with a 53.4% dropback success rate, and the Patriots are second with a 52.6% success rate.

Rushing success rate is a different story, with both teams ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of rushing success rate.

Sam Darnold and Drake Maye trailed only Brock Purdy amongst all NFL quarterbacks in success rate in 2025.

Although Darnold is prone to catastrophic mistakes, the Seahawks’ passing offense was efficient on a down-to-down basis.

Including playoffs, the Seahawks' rush defense has allowed a league-low 36% success rate this year.

The Patriots offense has struggled to run consistently, and the Seahawks defense has been dominant against the run consistently, increasing the possibility that the Patriots pass more than expected.

The same is true for the Seahawks offense against the Patriots defense.

The Patriots season long stats do not reflect the true ability of the defense, as the defense has drastically different stats with and without Milton Williams on the field.

Opponents have had a 31.6% rushing success rate in three playoff games against the Patriots, who have held opponents to 3.1 yards per rush in the playoffs.

The Patriots trailed at halftime just once all season, and they were tied at halftime one other time.

Maye had 28 and 31 completions in those two games.

Neither of these two teams lost a game by more than 7 points all season, which would help both quarterbacks remain aggressive.

Darnold’s season high in completions came in two losses against the Rams and Buccaneers, but like the Patriots, the Seahawks were successful in building early leads.

The Seahawks and Patriots ranked first and second in first-half point margin.

They were the only teams with a +100 or better first-half point differential.

A competitive game state would be favorable for a quarterback longshot parlay.

Super Bowl 60 Longshot Prediction: A.J. Barner & Hunter Henry Touchdown Props

• A.J. Barner & Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+900)
• A.J. Barner First Touchdown Scorer & Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+3800)

The Patriots and Seahawks defenses have not allowed a rushing touchdown in the playoffs.

They have allowed 5 combined passing touchdowns.

With Milton Williams on the field this season, 81.3% of the touchdowns against the Patriots have been passing touchdowns.

A.J. Barner is the short-yardage specialist with a 90% success rate on 10 rush attempts this season.

The tight end could score a touchdown on a tush push from the one-yard line.

Barner’s 6 receiving touchdowns and 5 end zone targets are second amongst all Seahawks receivers this season, and he has run a route on 76.3% of Sam Darnold’s dropbacks in the playoffs.

Hunter Henry led the Patriots with 7 receiving touchdowns and was tied for the team lead with 8 end zone targets this season.

The Seahawks allowed a 73% completion rate on tight end targets this season.

From Week 8 on, no non-Ram wide receiver had more than 50 receiving yards in a game against the Seahawks.

As a result, Seahawks opponents increase target rates to tight ends and running backs, targeting tight ends 24% of the time against Seattle.

The Seahawks allowed 9 rushing touchdowns this season, the second fewest in the league.

68.9% offensive touchdowns were scored through the air against the Seahawks.

As 5-point underdogs, if the Patriots fall behind early, Drake Maye could be forced to challenge the Seahawks through the air.

Super Bowl 60 Longshot Prediction: DeMario Douglas Anytime Touchdown +550

The Seahawks defense allowed 8 passing touchdowns in three games against MVP co-favorite Matthew Stafford.

The Rams finished the season with the second-best EPA per dropback, only trailing Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.

If the Patriots have success against the Seahawks, it will likely have to be through Maye.

Training camp standout DeMario Douglas ran a route on a career-low 36.3% of dropbacks this season.

Despite the low snap rate, Douglas tied his career-high with 3 receiving touchdowns and was third on the roster in red zone targets as a result of a 25.9% target rate in the red zone.

In the playoffs, Douglas has been on the field for 70% Maye’s dropbacks in the red zone compared to 40% of the dropbacks outside the redzone.

If the Patriots are trailing, a long-shot dart throw on Douglas to score a touchdown is in the range of outcomes.

More Super Bowl 60 Prop Bet Coverage:

Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you their favorite same game parlays from that week’s action.

Same Game Parlays have grown in popularity in recent seasons as recreational gamblers are drawn to parlay bets.

Parlays are especially exciting for casual gamblers looking to win more than double the original bet.

The sportsbook edge or hold on parlays is greater than on single bets because the hold is compounded during each additional bet.

This edge can be reduced by selecting correlated outcomes, as the likelihood of both occurring together may be higher than what the sportsbook’s odds suggest.

By identifying correlated outcomes, there’s a potential to turn a fun and recreational bet into a +EV opportunity.

What is a same game parlay?

A same game parlay is a wager that combines multiple bet outcomes or “legs” from a single game. Combining these bets increases the risk and, therefore, the potential payout if every leg hits.

These wagers are very often correlated, meaning if one of the legs wins, it is more likely the other legs will win as well.

Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions & Bets for Super Bowl LX

Seahawks vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay: Super Bowl 60

• Seahawks -4.5
• Sam Darnold (Seahawks)  21+ Completions
• A.J. Barner (Seahawks) 26+ Receiving Yards

This Same Game Parlay is designed around a Seahawks Super Bowl victory.

The Patriots defense has smothered opposing rushers in the postseason, allowing 3.1 yards per rush and a 29.8% success rate.

If the Seahawks have success, it is likely correlated with Sam Darnold having success in the passing game.

From Week 13 on, the Seahawks have focused on a shorter, higher success rate passing game, ideally reducing Darnold's mistakes.

Darold's average air yards decreased to 6.0, increasing his expected completion percentage to 69.0%.

A.J. Barner has been relatively quiet in the postseason, but he has a 76.3% route participation percentage rate, up from 69.1% in the regular season.

The Patriots' pass defense has impressed in the postseason, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 51.4% completion rate.

However, passes to tight ends have generated a 70% completion rate over that span.

» Bet it now +525

Seahawks vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay: Super Bowl 60

• Patriots +4.5
• Patriots/Seahawks Under 45.5
• Sam Darnold (Seahawks) 1+ Interception Thrown
• Hunter Henry (Patriots) 4+ Receptions

This Same Game Parlay is designed for those looking to take the Patriots against the spread or potentially the moneyline to increase the odds.

The Seahawks committed 8 offensive turnovers in their three losses this season, including 5 interceptions by Sam Darnold.

The Patriots defense has forced 5 interceptions in their past two games.

They have forced pressure on 51.9% of opponent drop-backs in the playoffs, up 13.5% from the regular season.

The Patriots offense has struggled in the postseason, averaging 4.3 yards per play and a 37.5% success rate.

The path to victory against the Seahawks is most likely in a lower-scoring game.

Tight ends have had success against this top-tier Seahawks defense in comparison to wide receivers.

The Seahawks allowed 63.5 yards to opposing tight ends this season.

» Bet it now +850

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In tracking weekly rushing leaders throughout the season, there was one constant.

Spike rushing weeks are usually attached to the running back on the winning team.

This season, 18 of the top 20 single-game rushing performances came from a running back on the winning team

The 2 that did not came from the Patriots and Ravens in fourth quarter, Josh Allen-led comebacks.

Volume remains essential in identifying running back spike weeks.

This season, there were 17 instances of a running back gaining 150 or more rushing yards.

Those running backs averaged 21.8 carries in those games, and every running back had at least 12 carries.

Last season in Wild Card Weekend, four running backs rushed for 100 yards.

All four were on the winning team, and all four had at least 23 carries.

The safest way to select a rushing spike week is through predicting volume, which is correlated with leading.

The Rams are the largest favorite of the week, but Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have become a split backfield.

Since Week 6, Williams has handled 57.7% of the running back carries, and Corum has handled 39.4%.

NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:

Most Wild Card Round Rushing Yards Prediction: Saquon Barkley (+425)

The Eagles enter the weekend as the second-largest favorite and are playing at home to open the playoffs.

Last season, Barkley averaged 21.5 rush attempts per game in the regular season and hit 25 rush attempts in 75% of the playoff games en route to the Eagles' Super Bowl Victory.

Barkley averaged 17.5 attempts per game this season, but the 49ers present a great opportunity for the Eagles to lean on the star running back.

Working in the Eagles' favor is the return of Lane Johnson for the playoffs.

Barkley has averaged 1.97 yards before contact with Johnson on the field compared to 0.88 yards before contact without Johnson this season.

In Eagles wins this season, Barkley had at least 18 rush attempts in every game except the Giants game, in which he left early with an injury.

The Eagles are more than happy to slow the game down and lean on the run if out ahead, which could propel Barkley to the necessary volume to lead all running backs in yards this week.

In Week 18, the 49ers defense faced 33 rush attempts from running backs in a trailing game script.

Should the Eagles build an early lead, a similar game plan could occur.

As a home favorite against a depleted defense, Barkley is the rushing yards favorite for good reason this weekend.

He should have plenty of volume and has explosive play potential.

Wild Card Round Running Back Longshot Bet: Quarterback Rushing Parlay (+895)

• Brock Purdy 25+ Rushing Yards
• Justin Herbert 20+ Rushing Yards
• Drake Maye 20+ Rushing Yards
• Josh Allen 20+ Rushing Yards
• Trevor Lawrence 20+ Rushing Yards

Inspired by Rich Hribar, Sunday’s quarterbacks all have averaged more than 24 rushing yards per game in the final portion of the season since Week 14.

I am leaving Jalen Hurts out of the parlay because, believe it or not, he averaged the lowest rushing yards per game of the six starting quarterbacks on Sunday over the final five weeks.

There is also a scenario in which the Eagles don’t need to use Hurt’s legs, as the offense matches very well against a depleted 49ers defense.

In a win-or-go-home situation, quarterbacks are more likely to risk taking a hit to gain extra yards.

Last season’s Wild Card games saw seven of the 12 starting quarterbacks reach at least 20 rushing yards.

Tracking leading passers throughout the season highlighted the importance of game state for peak passing outcomes.

Looking back at the results, game state was more important to high passing total games than the perceived passing matchup.

Through fifteen weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders were involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and six quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.

Game state continues to be very important.

Teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.

Matthew Stafford is the passing leader favorite, but unless the Panthers push back, it is difficult to see a ceiling game required by the Rams, who have a great matchup on the ground.

NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:

Most Wild Card Round Passing Yards Prediction: Josh Allen (+850)

The Buffalo Bills finished the season with drastic splits in terms of point differentials.

In the first half of games, the Bills had a -11 point differential compared to a +127 point differential in the second half.

The Bills trailed by 10 or more points at halftime five times this season.

The other six AFC playoff teams trailed by 10 or more points five times at halftime combined.

The Jaguars finished the season fourth in first-half points scored and third in first-half point differential, which could force the Bills to turn to “Super Josh” earlier than desired.

The Jaguars faced the fewest rush attempts this season.

This is a result of a run defense that ranks third in success rate and building early leads, forcing teams to pass.

The Buffalo Bills had the most rush attempts this season, but finished the year with the fourth-highest EPA per dropback.

Since the start of 2024, the Bills have the highest EPA per dropback despite the lack of elite receivers.

Allen is arguably the best quarterback in the game at the moment, and his team has the 31st-ranked pass rate over expectation.

Assuming the Bills will have to rely on Allen against a scorching-hot Jaguars team, Allen should have the opportunity to lead in passing yards this weekend.

Wild Card Round Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Bryce Young Passing Ladders

• 200+ Passing Yards (+101)
• 230+ Passing Yards (+210)
• 250+ Passing Yards (+330)
• 300+ Passing Yards (+1100)

The Panthers opened the season with Bryce Young dropping back 59 and 40 times in the opening two weeks of the season.
From Week 3 onward, Young averaged 31.2 dropbacks per game.

The only game after Week 2 in which Young hit 40 dropbacks was against the Falcons.

The common theme of the Young high drop-back games was a double-digit deficit in the first half.

The four highest drop-back games in which Young started this season happened to be the four games in which the Panthers trailed by double digits at halftime.

In the first meeting between these two teams, the Panthers forced 3 Matthew Stafford turnovers, including an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

The Rams had a negative turnover margin in four games this season, so a repeat -3 turnover margin is highly unlikely for the Panthers.

As double-digit underdogs, the most likely scenario sees a game in which the Rams build an early lead, forcing the Panthers to drop back to pass more than they would ideally like.

Young averaged 188 passing yards per game this season.

However, in the two games he dropped back to pass more than 40 times, he had 448 and 328 passing yards.

If the Panthers fall behind, Dave Canales has shown that he can pivot to a pass-heavy approach, which is in the range of outcomes this weekend.

Tracking receiving leaders throughout the season provided insight into the changing NFL meta in terms of passing.

The continued decline in 11 personal league-wide has created a shift in targets.

Wide receiver target share dropped more than 2% across the league as teams diversified to formations with more tight ends on the field.

This creates a drop in opportunity for the secondary receivers for most teams.

In chasing spike receiving weeks, volume and opportunity are king.

Highlighting target earners in condensed passing trees helps identify the best candidates.

NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:

Most Wild Card Round Receiving Yards Prediction: Tetairoa McMillan (+1700)

McMillan eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season on a Panthers team that finished 26th in the league with 3,048 total passing yards.

The potential offensive rookie of the year finished the season with 25.4% of the Panthers' targets and 43.3% of the team's air yards.

McMillan reached double-digit targets in four games this season and posted 130, 100, 99, and 73 receiving yards in those games.

Short of some defensive magic from the Panthers, it is highly likely Carolina will need to throw and live on some high-variance plays against the Rams.

The Panthers had 41 passes this season that traveled 20 or more air yards.

McMillan was targeted on 21 of those passes.

If there is a weakness in the Rams defense, it’s the cornerback position.

The Rams allowed the fourth-most passing yards to wide receivers lined up wide left/right this season, and McMillan played 84.8% of his snaps outside.

McMillan was only targeted twice in the previous matchup as the Panthers were ultra-conservative, but McMillan scored on a 43-yard passing play against the Rams.

McMillan has averaged 16.2 yards per reception on play-action passes, which could be utilized more against a Rams defense that ranks 24th against play-action passes.

McMillan is a longer shot to lead the week in receiving, but his underlying metrics are similar to those receivers who provide spike weeks as he earns volume and is targeted down the field.

A game state in which the Panthers trail or are aggressive against the Rams could elevate the number of pass attempts, which would benefit McMillan.

Wild Card Round Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Dalton Kincaid Ladders

• Anytime Touchdown (+240)
• 50+ Receiving Yards (+141)
• 80 + Receiving Yards (+449)
• 100+ Receiving Yards (+930)

Kincaid has been limited in practice this week, but he played in a meaningless Week 18 game.

It is fair to expect him to continue his normal role in the offense.

Kincaid has run a route on 49.3% of dropbacks in the games he played this season, which is not ideal.

However, he led all tight ends this season with a 2.83 yards per route average.

The Jaguars allowed 59 yards to opposing tight ends per game this season, which was the 10th-highest in the league.

Part of what limits Kincaid’s usage is the Bills' high run rate.

However, the Jaguars are a pass-funnel defense that saw the fewest opposition rushes all season.

If the Jaguars jump out to an early lead, Kincaid could become a bigger part of the game plan should the Bills elevate their pass rate.

Puka Nacua has made noise on and off the field this week, but he led all pass catchers in yards for the second consecutive week and followed it up on Thursday Night Football with 225 more receiving yards.

The article hit on Nacua at +900 last week by following the underlying usage in a game set up for passing success.

Nacua was targeted on 42% of his routes on Sunday and had his second consecutive 11-target game en route to 181 receiving yards.

The opening week of bestball playoffs had 10 pass catchers reach 100 receiving yards, including eight wide receivers and two tight ends.

All 10 of the receivers had at least 6 receptions, proving that volume matters for pass catchers.

Ancillary wide receivers have struggled this year as tight end usage continues to trend upwards, and Week 15 was no exception.

Tight ends had 24.5% target share.

This league-wide trend has consequences to consider in the offseason in best ball structure and drafting, as well as props for secondary receivers.

There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week, so chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical.

NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 16 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Ja’Marr Chase (+850)

Vibes are rough in Cincinnati, but the Bengals have a solid matchup this week against the Dolphins, and Sharp Football’s Ryan McCrystal believes Quinn Ewers can function in the Dolphins offense.

The Dolphins are bottom 10 in pressure rate and dead last in allowing a 70% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.

This game could go back and forth, setting up an opportunity for Joe Burrow to close out the season with some positivity.

Tee Higgins will likely return, which is actually good news for the Chase, as his spike games this season have occurred with Higgins on the field.

This is a bit of narrative-based selection as Chase has been tied to Burrow for his college and pro career and is the most likely to help Burrow find the rainbow, so to speak.

This game is not important for the standings this year since both teams are eliminated from contention, but both teams have reason to find some offensive answers and build some positive thoughts heading into the offseason.

Week 16 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Courtland Sutton Ladders

• Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• 80+ Receiving Yards (+215)
• 100+ Receiving Yards (+470)
• Anytime TD Scorer (+155)
• 2+ Touchdowns (+1100)

Sutton has 49.5% of the Broncos' air yards over the past two weeks and 29.4% of the targets.

He faces a pass-funnel Jaguars defense that struggles against outside wide receivers.

Sutton is on pace for his second consecutive 1,000-yard season and is trending in a positive direction with four consecutive games of 59 or more yards.

The Jaguars are elite against intermediate passes, which provides a road map for checkdowns and deep passes.

That favors Sutton as a deep target.

Both Sutton and Troy Franklin have been the Broncos' target earners on passes of 15 or more air yards, but Sutton has caught 51.5% of these targets compared to Franklin, who has caught 29.5% of deeper targets.

The Jaguars-Broncos matchup could be a higher passing volume game, which makes Sutton a solid option for receiving ladders.

Last week, Kirk Cousins turned back the clock and threw for 373 yards on Thursday Night Football to lead all quarterbacks in Week 15 passing yards.

Matthew Stafford led all Sunday quarterbacks in passing yards, edging out Jared Goff in a game that jumped off the page for quarterback passing.

Sharp subscribers were given Stafford passing overs, and the article selected Goff as the weekly leader, as the game had an ideal setup for a back-and-forth passing shootout.

The article selected Goff based on the opinion that the Lions, as touchdown underdogs, would likely trail and have to chase the game.

However, it was the Lions that jumped out to an early lead, propelling Stafford to 246 passing yards in the second and third quarters.

Gamestate continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.

Outlier performances come from games that go right down to the wire or teams that fall behind early.

Through 15 weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and six quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.

Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns was the outlier.

Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.

Sunday features a smaller slate, and all but two games are lined within a touchdown or less, giving plenty of options to chase for most passing yards.

Both Jaguars-Broncos and Patriots-Ravens provide plenty of intrigue amongst teams fighting for playoff games, and the Falcons-Cardinals game has shootout potential.

NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 16 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Baker Mayfield (+1700)

It’s not a coincidence that Mayfield had his best game in terms of yardage and efficiency over the past two months the moment that Mike Evans returned to the lineup.

Mayfield is undervalued this week given the importance of this game for both teams and the fact that his receiver room is back to full health, as even Jalen McMillan contributed last week.

The Buccaneers are a pass funnel, which forced Dave Canales to pivot from his run-heavy approach last season.

If the same happens this year, Mayfield’s ceiling is elevated.

Young had 46 pass attempts against the Buccaneers in the first matchup last season.

That matchup between the Buccaneers and Panthers had 145 combined plays.

That was the most of any game in Canales' tenure as the Panthers head coach and 22.5 more plays than the average Panther game over the last two seasons.

The Panthers are allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt and are 23rd in EPA per pass.

Mayfield had 359 passing yards against this defense in the second meeting last season.

Mayfield ran for 68 yards in his last game, his highest total of the season, implying he is slightly healthier and has extra rest.

That is a boost for a quarterback dealing with season long injuries.

This game should remain competitive, which is critical for a passing ceiling.

Both teams could turn to the passing game more than expected, which would bump play volume and shootout potential.

On a shorter slate, with less of a high-end outcome needed to take down the passing total, chasing a longer shot makes some sense this week.

Week 16 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Trevor Lawrence & Bo Nix Combined Passing Yards (DraftKings)

• 475+ Combined Passing Yards (+104)
• 525+ Combined Passing Yards (+243)
• 575+ Combined Passing Yards (+575)

Just as everyone predicted at the beginning of the season, this matchup features division leaders who have combined for 22 wins up to this point in the season.

The Jaguars and Broncos defenses are both top-six in rushing DVOA, setting up a potential pass-heavy game between Lawrence and Nix.

The Jaguars rank second in defensive rush success rate, and the Broncos have struggled to run since losing J.K. Dobbins.

Both the Jaguars and Broncos have leaned pass-heavy over the past few weeks.

Nix has averaged 38.5 pass attempts over the past month, and the Broncos have passed 6% over expectation over that span.

A game against the pass-funnel Jaguars provides a ceiling opportunity for Nix.

The Jaguars passed 9% over expectation last week as Trevor Lawrence had 5 passing touchdowns against the Jets.

Travis Etienne has averaged 3.0 yards per rush over the past three weeks, which could push the Jaguars to lean on the pass against the Broncos.

With both teams potentially leaning on the pass, play volume would increase, helping out both quarterbacks' passing totals.

TreVeyon Henderson averaged 10 yards per carry for the second time this season and led all running backs with 148 rushing yards in Week 15.

Five running backs reached 100 rushing yards in Week 15.

Only one of the five had 20 carries, which is a bit of an outlier from previous weeks.

Volume remains a critical component chasing rushing leaders, and volume is often correlated with a favorable game script.

Up to this point, 16 of the top 17 highest rushing totals on the season are from running backs on the winning team.

The one that was on the losing side lost by a single point in the final minute of the game.

In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, identifying favorites or short dogs is a key component.

There are four games with double-digit favorites this week, which should be the starting point when searching for running backs who could be propelled to early leads and favorable volume for a spike week.

NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 16 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Bijan Robinson (+600)

Jawhar Jordan rushed for 100 yards against the Arizona Cardinals after coming off the bench last week.

The Falcons run the highest rate of outside zone runs, and the Cardinals rank 26th in EPA per rush against outside zone runs.

Robinson has averaged 19.8 carries over the past five weeks, and this matchup provides a solid marriage of volume and efficiency.

The Cardinals are a great team for overs and fantasy football since their games are averaging 127 plays as a result of the Cardinals' high pass volume.

Robinson had a season high 93.1% of the backfield touches last week.

He has had an extra few days of rest and is the current league leader in combined rushing and receiving yards.

With Tyler Allgeier hitting free agency in the offseason, there is a possible narrative around the Falcons chasing yards for the running back of the future.

The total in this matchup has ticked up, and this game provides Robinson an opportunity to combine volume and efficiency and a spike week in rushing yardage.

Week 16 Running Back Longshot Bet: Aaron Jones & Jordan Mason Combined Rushing Yards

• 100+ Rushing Yards (-126)
• 125+ Rushing Yards (+214)
• 150 Rushing Yards (+557)

The Minnesota Vikings are 3-point favorites against the New York Giants, who are dreadful at stopping the run this season.

After a solid performance against the Cowboys, J.J. McCarthy is garnering attention this week, when the answer is likely the Vikings' rushing attack.

The Giants are allowing the second-most yards to opposing running backs this season, averaging 123 yards against, and have lost 8 straight games.

Before facing the Cowboys, the Vikings defense averaged 137 passing yards against in their previous five games.

The likelihood of the Vikings jumping ahead and running the ball successfully is high, as the Giants could struggle to move the ball with a rookie quarterback against Brian Flores.

The combined rushing with Jones and Mason covers all the bases in terms of guessing which running back gets the carries and has the explosives.

The highest ladder of this combination has value if you believe the Vikings are going to lead this game.

Puka Nacua hauled in 7 receptions for 167 receiving yards, joining Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the only receivers to win the weekly receiving title twice this season.

Despite suppressed passing numbers throughout the league, nine players carded 100 or more receiving yards last week.

Eight of the nine receivers had at least 6 receptions en route to 100 receiving yards, but Nico Collins broke the mold, managing 121 receiving yards on 4 receptions.

Tight end usage continues to trend upward league-wide.

Tight ends were targeted on 23.3% of targets in Week 14, which was the fifth week in the past six with a tight end target share of more than 23%.

In the first eight weeks of the season, tight ends had 21.8% of the targets.

From Week 9 onward, that has climbed to 23.4%.

Continuing to monitor league-wide trends will help with props and fantasy drafts.

There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week, so chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical.

NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:

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Most Week 15 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Puka Nacua +750

After a slight dip in usage midseason, which was probably intended as Nacua plays a physical game, Nacua has returned to the focal point of the Rams offense.

Over the past three weeks, Nacua has 33.7% of the Rams' targets and 41.7% of the air yards.

He is averaging 112 receiving yards per game.

Now the Rams face the Lions in an important game for playoff positioning, and they could be pushed into a shootout.

The Panthers defeated the Rams, but they capitalized on turnovers and basically tried to bleed the clock with runs, keeping the Rams offense off the field.

The Panthers ran on 17 of 21 first downs.

Dan Campbell is more willing to exchange haymakers on offense.

Sean McVay has been more aggressive this season, as well.

Matthew Stafford is averaging 2.75 more pass attempts in the first half of games, and should the Rams need to remain aggressive, Nacua could push 15 targets.

Nacua is averaging 3.65 yards per route this season, and the Lions are dealing with injuries in their secondary.

Nacua’s ceiling indoors against a top-tier opponent who can push the Rams is tough to pass up this week.

Week 15 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Chimere Dike Ladders

• Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
• 50+ Receiving Yards (+216)
• 80+ Receiving Yards (+920)

The Titans have played a top-six defense in terms of EPA per play allowed over each of the past five games.

During that stretch, 28% of Dike’s targets have been off-target from Cam Ward.

The 49ers are 31st in pressure rate, which should bump Ward’s accuracy in a positive direction.

From Week 8 onward, Dike has run a route on over 80% of the Titans' dropbacks in five of six games. The other he left with a chest injury.

The 49ers allow the third-most yards to players lined up in the slot this season, which provides a great opportunity for Dike, who has played 68% of his snaps from the slot this season.

As mentioned in Rich Hribar’s worksheet, 44.8% of the receptions allowed by San Francisco to receivers have been via the slot, the second-highest rate in the league.

Dike is explosive, evidenced by his 4.34 40-yard dash and his two punt return touchdowns this season, and is coming off his best game of the season in terms of usage.

He had 32% of the team's targets and 52.7% of the air yards.

It would make sense for the rebuilding Titans to continue to explore what they have in the rookie as a receiver.

This is a great matchup for the Titans offense in general, and Dike is a player who has the potential to take advantage of the 49ers' depleted defense.

Tony Pollard had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season, in large part due to 69 and 32-yard rushing touchdowns.

Pollard racked up 25 carries as the Titans scored twice in the first quarter, which were the Titans' 2nd and 3rd offensive touchdowns in the opening quarter of the season.

Four running backs reached 100 rushing yards in Week 14.

Of the four, three had at least 20 carries, and three were on the winning team.

Volume remains a critical component chasing rushing leaders, and volume is often correlated with a favorable game script.

The top eight single game rushing performances this season have come from running backs on the winning team.

Up to this point, 16 of the top 17 highest rushing totals on the season are from running backs on the winning team.

The one that was on the losing side lost by a single point in the final minute of the game.

In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, identifying favorites or short dogs is a key component.

There are four games with double-digit favorites this week, which should be the starting point when searching for running backs who could be propelled to early leads and favorable volume for a spike week.

NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:

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Most Week 15 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Travis Etienne (+1400)

Bhayshul Tuten fumbled twice on two carries last week, earning himself a spot as a spectator for the remainder of the game.

As the Jaguars chase a division championship and playoff spot, they are likely to rely on the veteran running back down the stretch.

Etienne had a season-high 90.2% of the running back carries on Sunday and has a solid matchup.

The Jaguars are 13.5-point favorites against a team starting an undrafted rookie quarterback.

The Jets have allowed 25.7 running back attempts per game this season and have struggled to stop teams on the ground over the past couple of weeks.

Over the past two weeks, the Jets have allowed opposing running backs to average 5.6 yards per rush and 189 rushing yards per game.

As two-touchdown underdogs, they are likely to face another 30 running back touches on Sunday.

Etienne can get to a spike week with sheer volume alone, but the Jets have allowed 5 explosive rushes in each of the last two games, which improves Etienne’s ceiling.

Week 15 Running Back Longshot Bet: D’Andre Swift-Kyle Monangai Combined Rushing Yards

• 125+ rushing yards (+104)
• 150+ rushing yards (+267)
• 175+ rushing yards (+640)

The Cleveland Browns have a great down-to-down rush defense, but they are starting to leak explosive runs as they close out the season.

The Browns rank first in rush success rate, but have been susceptible to allowing some long runs.

Since Week 7, they have allowed the third-most rushes of 25+ yards.

Ben Johnson has the Bears at the top of the league in yards before contact per rush, which can help negate the Browns' down-to-down success.

Over the past six games, the Bears have averaged 28.7 running back carries per game and enter Sunday as home favorites of more than a touchdown.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns are dealing with significant offensive line injuries.

When healthy, it is a unit that has ranked in the bottom half of the league in ESPN’s run block and pass block win rate.

Home favorites on a cold Chicago day provide the Bears an opportunity to try and replicate the rushing success from a couple of weeks ago against the Eagles.

Both running backs have been used in a very similar role over the past couple of weeks, which makes the combined line more attractive.

Shedeur Sanders led all Sunday quarterbacks in passing yards last week, and I passed over him because of poor process.

The Browns-Titans game was one of only a couple of games under a 3-point spread, and the Titans have struggled to limit passing this season.

Regardless of the weather, the only thing Sanders needed to push his ceiling was the Titans' scoring early to force the Browns to chase the game.

Variance happens, and a 14-0 first quarter lead shouldn’t have been seen as an extreme outlier, but it provided Sanders the perfect recipe for a spike week.

Gamestate continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.

Outlier performances come from games that go right down to the wire or teams that fall behind early.

Through 14 weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and five quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.

Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns was the outlier.

Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.

This week features a slate with larger spreads, which could limit the passing ceiling for some of the elite quarterbacks.

NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:

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Most Week 15 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jared Goff (+1100)

The Los Angeles Rams are 6-point home favorites in a game featuring the highest total of the week.

The Lions built an early lead, allowing them to remain balanced against the Cowboys.

What has flown under the radar is the fact that Jahmyr Gibbs has been held under 3.6 yards per attempt in three of his past four games.

The Rams are third in EPA per rush allowed.

The Lions are likely going to have to win this game through the air.

Boosting Goff’s ceiling is the potential that the Lions are super aggressive on fourth down in a game that Dan Campbell knows they have to put up multiple touchdowns to win.

A week ago, Jacoby Brissett managed 271 passing yards against this Rams unit in a trailing game state.

The Lions offense has capable pass catchers to lift Goff to a ceiling game, including Gibbs and Jameson Williams, who are explosive after the catch.

This game has taken money to the over.

It is likely that the Lions are chasing and need to remain aggressive from the start to win, which leads me to think that Goff can outproduce Matthew Stafford, who should still be very productive.

Week 15 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Cam Ward Ladders

• 2+ Passing TDs (+214)
• 3+ Passing TDs (+910)
• Over 190.5 Passing Yards (-111)
• 250+ Passing Yards (+408)

Cam Ward has played an absolute gauntlet of defenses in his rookie season.

In his 13 starts, he’s faced a defense that ranks in the top 12 in terms of EPA allowed per play 11 times, including five straight games against top-six defenses.

That changes this week as he travels to face a 49ers team that has faced a mediocre slate of opposing quarterbacks outside of division games.

In non-division games, the 49ers have faced Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, Michael Penix, C.J. Stroud, Jaxson Dart, Bryce Young, and Shedeur Sanders.

Not a single quarterback listed is ranked in the top 10 of EPA + CPOE composite.

Despite the schedule, the 49ers rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed, which provides Ward a much different outlook than the previous five weeks.

Opposing quarterbacks complete 69.2% of passes against the 49ers.

Only the Miami Dolphins allow a higher completion percentage.

In addition, the 49ers are last in the league with 16 quarterback sacks and 31st with a 29.7% pressure rate, which helps Ward, who has been sacked 49 times this season.

The Titans defense ranks below the 49ers in EPA per pass attempt, which creates an avenue for this game to be higher scoring.

The 49ers are going to have offensive success, and the path for the Titans to also move the ball is much easier than in past weeks, giving this game sneaky shootout potential.

James Cook had a career-high 32 carries, which led him to the weekly rushing title with 144 rush yards.

Six running backs reached 100 rushing yards in Week 13, including two Bears running backs, but volume remained a consistent theme as all six running backs had at least 18 carries.

Bijan Robinson was the only running back from a losing team to join that group last week, but the Falcons lost in overtime, which was critical to a run-friendly game state.

Volume remains a critical component chasing rushing leaders, and volume is often correlated with a favorable game script.

The top eight single game rushing performances this season have come from running backs on the winning team.

Up to this point, 18 of the top 20 highest rushing totals on the season are from running backs on the winning team.

The two that were on the losing side lost by a single point in the final minute of the game.

In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, identifying favorites or short dogs is a key component.

There are only three games that are currently lined by less than a field goal, which opens up the number of running backs who could be propelled to early leads and favorable volume for a spike week.

NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 14 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Derrick Henry (+1000)

Henry becomes more difficult to tackle later in the season.

It’s not a myth.

In a 10-year sample, Henry has averaged 6.1 yards per carry in January and 5.3 yards per carry in December compared to 4.7 yards per carry in September through November.

The Ravens enter Sunday with Lamar Jackson a shell of himself, dealing with numerous injuries.

They are facing a Steelers defensive line that could be fatigued late in the season after defending 51 rush attempts from the Bills on Sunday.

As we have seen in the past with Henry, all it takes is a couple of broken tackles for him to bust a lengthy run.

Although Henry’s down-to-down success has dipped this season, he is still rushing for 10 or more yards on 11.2% of his carries.

The Steelers are facing 23.3 running back rushes per game, and it is unlikely that the offense under Aaron Rodgers builds a lead, which increases the chances that Henry compiles volume this week.

Henry had success late last season against the Steelers, rushing for 186 yards in a playoff matchup and 162 yards in a December matchup.

In a pivotal AFC North matchup, it is more likely that Henry returns to his previous form than Jackson, which leads me to believe that the Ravens could lean on the running back.

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Week 14 Running Back Longshot Bet: Chris Rodriguez Bets

• Rushing Attempts Over 10.5 (-127)
• Rushing Yards Over 41.5 (-110)
• 60+ Rushing Yards (+244)
• 100+ Rushing Yards (+1480)
• Anytime Touchdown (+165)
• First Touchdown Scorer (+950)

For those paying attention, Rodriguez has surpassed Bill Croskey-Merritt as the Commanders' lead running back.

Rodriguez has handled 90% of the first quarter running back carries in the past two games.

Over the past four games, Rodriguez has reached double-digit carries three times with the one exception a game he left with a shoulder injury.

The Commanders enter the game as favorites, increasing the potential for a positive game state against a struggling Vikings offense.

Since Week 9, the Commanders have quietly shifted to a rushing offense.

In the opening eight weeks of the season, the Commanders' running back room averaged 17.4 rushes per game.

That has ballooned to 24 over the past four games.

Rodriguez is potentially in line for his busiest game of the season, and his rushing props have not adjusted fully.

The Jameson Williams truthers are vocal after a breakout performance in the absence of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

Williams did not break the mold of the ceiling wide receiver as he recorded 37% of the Lions' targets, hauling in 7 catches for 144 yards.

Before Week 13, Williams had been targeted on 14.6 of his routes, but an injury to St. Brown on the first drive changed everything.

Williams, much like Michael Wilson a couple of weeks prior, had increased usage due to injuries, leading to a spike in usage.

Wilson’s was easier to identify because the injury did not occur midgame, but nonetheless, target trees are very fluid based on player availability.

Volume continues to be king even for receivers, as all six of the 100-yard receivers in Week 13 had at least 7 receptions.

Decreased wide receiver target share remains a consistent theme for the season.

Wide receivers were targeted on 53.5% of passes in Week 13, a number that is consistently trending downward in 2025.

Teams are targeting tight ends an average of 7.27 passes per game, which is up from 2024.

Tight ends are averaging 22.4% of targets league-wide.

There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week, so chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical.

NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 14 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Emeka Egbuka (+3000)

Volatility is always a concern, but underlying usage allows us to predict which wide receivers have the ability to create spike weeks.

Adonai Mitchell was a great example of this as he managed to haul in a couple of deep passes and led all wide receivers in receiving on Sunday.

Mitchell was drawing targets, and those targets were deep down the field.

He has now been targeted on 27.8% of his routes, accounting for 59.9% of the Jets' air yards.

Why am I bringing this up now?

Egbuka is riding the wrong side of variance, but the underlying metrics are solid for the rookie wide receiver.

In Egbuka’s last five games, he’s accounted for 31.1% of the Buccaneers’ targets and 44.6% of the air yards, but he has one game over 45 receiving yards.

Part of Egbuka’s struggles can be attributed to the fact that Baker Mayfield is clearly battling through multiple injuries.

27.7% of Egbuka’s targets over that span have been off target.

The New Orleans Saints are 26th in pressure rate and 24th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, which could spark the Mayfield/Egbuka connection from earlier in the season.

The Saints face the second fewest pass attempts per game, as they have trailed at halftime in 10 of their 12 games.

The Saints had 51 pass attempts in the first meeting against the Buccaneers, despite only trailing 7-3 at halftime.

The Buccaneers are a pass funnel.

Should the Saints generate some early production, there is potential for the Buccaneers to remain pass heavy.

Egbuka exceeded expectations early in the season, but it was around this time last season when Brian Thomas broke out as a rookie.

Rookie receivers tend to improve later in the season, and this seems like an ideal spot to bet on Egbuka, who is due for improved results.

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Week 14 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Tyler Warren Bets

• Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• 70+ receiving Yards (+210)
• 7+ Receptions (+250)
• Anytime Touchdown (+155)
• 2+ Touchdowns (+1200)

Another rookie pass catcher who has been relatively quiet since the opening part of the season.

Warren has had a solid rookie campaign for a tight end, registering at least 3 receptions in every game this year.

Warren has been a victim of the Colts’ overall success this year.

Daniel Jones has attempted 35 or more passes once all season long.

Jones is currently playing with a fractured fibula, which reduces the likelihood he will scramble, inherently increasing passing volume.

The Colts are also traveling to Jacksonville, which has not been kind to them in recent years.

The Jaguars are a pass funnel, but specifically to perimeter receivers and tight ends.

Opponents target tight ends on 24.8% of passes, and the Jaguars allow 69.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends.

With it unlikely that the Colts are just leaning on Jonathan Taylor in the second half, Warren could benefit from a closer game state.

Warren has relied on first half production.

60% of his targets and receptions have occurred in the first half of games.

The Colts are 1.5-point favorites traveling to a stadium where they struggle.

Should the Colts fall behind, Warren could benefit from a negative game script in a good matchup for tight ends.

The article hit on Bo Nix as a +2200 longshot last week, thanks to overtime, and both Tyler Shough ladders with some onside kick recovery magic.

The layout for Nix was clear, and the game delivered as the Broncos and Commanders combined for 95 passes, which was in the range of outcomes and made Nix worth chasing on a short slate.

Gamestate continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.

Outlier performances come from games that go right down to the wire or teams that fall behind early.

Through 13 weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and four quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.

Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns was the outlier.

Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.

This week features a slate with larger spreads, which could limit the passing ceiling for some of the elite quarterbacks.

NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 14 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jacoby Brissett (+700)

The Cardinals made their feelings well known on Monday when stating that Kyler Murray is not coming off injured reserve anytime soon.

Brissett hasn’t been great, but he’s averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt.

Combined with his passing volume, that has quietly added up to three consecutive 300-yard passing games.

Brissett leads the league with 43 pass attempts per game since taking over the starting role.

Joe Flacco is the only other quarterback averaging more than 37 pass attempts per game since Week 6.

The Rams are facing an average of 38.2 pass attempts per game.

As 8.5-point underdogs, it is realistic that Brissett and the Cardinals are chasing this game and forced to pass early and often.

The Rams are averaging 27.8 points per game, and the Cardinals are 28th in defensive success rate.

Despite some costly turnovers, the Rams moved the ball at will last week, averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt as Matthew Stafford looks to continue his MVP bid.

As mentioned above, game state is very critical to chasing ceiling quarterback performances, and the Rams defense is coming off their worst performance of the season, allowing 10.3 yards per pass attempt to Bryce Young.

Similar to Jameis Winston last year, it isn’t always pretty, but with a struggling run game and negative game scripts, the game is pushed to a heavy passing attack.

This week is no different for Brissett as the Rams are likely to bounce back after last week.

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Week 14 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Daniel Jones Passing Ladders

• 34+ Pass Attempts (+128)
• 38+ Pass Attempts (+315)
• 40+ Pass Attempts (+491)

The Colts have a +71 first-half point differential, which is the fourth-best in the league.

Jumping out to early leads has limited Jones' passing volume in the back half of games.

The Colts are likely to be pushed this week in Jacksonville, and a more competitive game state against a pass funnel defense pushes more volume to Jones in the passing game.

Jones is playing through a fractured fibula.

It is unlikely that he will scramble on dropbacks, and throwaways add to the passing attempt total the same way completions do.

The Jaguars face 37.9 pass attempts per game, the third highest in the league, which is another signal that Jones could see a spike in passing volume.

A close division matchup against a pass funnel provides the Colts an opportunity to lean on Jones and the passing attack on Sunday.

With Jaxson Dart set to return in Week 13, Jameis Winston played like he had nothing to lose and passed for 366 yards in an overtime loss against the Detroit Lions.

Game state continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.

Outlier performances happen in games that come right down to the wire or for teams that fall behind early.

Through 12 weeks of the season, seven of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and four quarterbacks were trailing at halftime, with Jared Goff and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns as the outlier.

Game state continues to be very important.

Teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.

With several of the elite offenses and healthy quarterbacks playing on Thursday and Friday, Sunday’s slate is less flashy than previous weeks.

In addition to parsing through numerous games with backup quarterbacks, weather is more of an issue as December approaches.

The Rams and Seahawks, who have solid passing matchups, are double-digit favorites and face offenses that may not provide enough pushback for ceiling passing results.

NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 13 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Bo Nix (+2200)

In his first two seasons, good defenses have had Nix’s number, but the Commanders are not a good defense.

The honeymoon phase is over for Dan Quinn as the Commanders have struggled on the defensive side of the ball, especially through the air, allowing a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

Nix has a favorable matchup and should be able to manufacture success through the air against an aggressive defense.

The biggest hurdle for a Nix ceiling game is the Commanders providing enough pushback to force the Broncos to keep their foot on the gas.

Terry McLaurin is returning from injury, which provides another receiving option for the Commanders, who are likely going to have to lean on Marcus Mariota‘s arm to have any chance at keeping this game close.

The Broncos have not allowed an explosive rush over the past four weeks, which increases the likelihood the Commanders will have to push the game through the air, boosting play volume and shootout potential.

As elite as the Broncos defense is, it has been pushed into some high-scoring game scripts, including a 65-point game with the Giants this season.

That game involved 50 Nix pass attempts.

On a smaller Sunday slate, Nix does provide some value against a weak pass defense.

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Week 13 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Tyler Shough Passing Ladders

• Over 34 Pass Attempts (+119)
• Over 38 Pass Attempts (+468)

The Saints' lack of red zone success against the Falcons hides the fact that the Saints moved the ball against an aggressive defense.

The Saints face another blitz-heavy defense this week.

The Dolphins blitz at the third-highest rate in the league.

Miami's secondary does not match that of the Falcons, as the Dolphins allow a 79% completion rate when they do not get pressure.

There are avenues for success for Kellen Moore, who faces a hyper-aggressive defense on consecutive weeks.

Alvin Kamara has been ruled out, and rookie Devin Neal is dealing with a bit of an ankle injury, which provides a path for the Saints to lean on Shough.

With only two wins on the season, the Saints are incentivized to find out what they have in Shough.

The Saints are nearly a touchdown underdog and don’t have an elite rushing attack.

Shough, who is coming off a 43-pass attempt performance on Sunday, is likely to drop back at a high rate again.

Week 12 was a positive one for the receivers as nine pass catchers eclipsed 100 receiving yards.

Volume continues to be king even for receivers.

All nine of the 100-yard receivers had at least 7 receptions.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued his historic season as he turned 8 receptions into 167 receiving yards to become the first receiver to win the weekly receiving title for a second time this season.

Decreased wide receiver target share remains a consistent theme for the season, with wide receivers targeted on 53.8% of passes in Week 12.

Injuries are a part of the discussion, but there is an offensive shift that continues to take place as teams look for ways to influence defensive personnel.

There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week, but chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical, as game state is least important for receivers.

NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 13 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jaylen Waddle (+1000)

Waddle’s box scores over the past two games aren’t overly impressive.

He has seven targets in each game and is averaging 68 yards, but the Dolphins have only attempted 41 passes in those two games.

Waddle has had more than a third of the Dolphins' targets in consecutive games and 78% of the air yards.

The ingredients for a spike week are there, except for the passing volume, which is less sticky week to week.

The Saints are decent against the run, ranking 11th in DVOA.

They rank 24th against the pass, which creates a slight pass-funnel defense.

More importantly, the Saints are somewhat frisky on offense, and it’s in the range of outcomes that they push the Dolphins to remain aggressive.

The Saints have scored a touchdown on 34.5% of their red zone possessions, dead last by a large margin.

Only 5 teams have reached the end zone on fewer than 50% of their red zone possessions.

A little positive touchdown regression could go a long way in pushing this game state and allowing Waddle to maximize his incredible underlying usage.

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Week 13 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Jayden Higgins Bets

• Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• 60+ Receiving Yards (+275)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300)
• SGP 60+ Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+750)

The theory of rational coaching is put to the test with the 34th overall pick, as the Texans play a pivotal matchup against the division-leading Colts.

Higgins has only run a route on 52% of the Texans' dropbacks, but he’s trended upward since the bye, running a route on 59% of dropbacks.

Higgins has had 7 or more targets in four of the last five games, and the Texans offense is trending in a more positive direction than earlier in the season.

What makes Higgins appealing is that it is highly likely that Nico Collins will be shadowed by Sauce Gardner in this matchup.

It is easy to envision a situation similar to that of the Jets, where secondary receivers are relied upon as teams throw away from Gardner.

Higgins is averaging over 12 air yards per target but had only a single reception of more than 20 yards on 24 targets from Davis Mills.

In the opening 4 weeks of the season, C.J. Stroud targeted Higgins 6 times with 3 completions of over 20 yards.

The return of Stroud and increased usage and possible negative game script are a recipe for Higgins to have his most productive game this year.

Higgins is especially a threat in the end zone as he is tied with Collins for the most receiving touchdowns and has 9 end zone targets compared to Collins’ 10, with a much smaller route share.

Jahmyr Gibbs lapped the field in Week 12, finishing with 103 yards more than any other running back.

His performance was highlighted by touchdown runs of 69 and 49 yards.

Five running backs reached 100 rushing yards in Week 12, including Kareem Hunt and Emmanuel Wilson, who needed 30 and 28 carries, respectively, to do so.

Volume remains a critical component chasing rushing leaders, and volume is often correlated with a favorable game script.

The top-eight single game rushing performances this season have come from running backs on the winning team.

Up to this point, 18 of the top 20 highest rushing totals on the season are from running backs on the winning team, and the two that were on the losing side lost by a single point in the final minute of the game.

In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, favorites or short dogs who can win should be on the list of running backs to target.

There are two teams favored by double-digit points this week.

One one those is the Rams, but Kyren Williams has only hit the 100 rushing yard plateau once this season despite the Rams' winning record and favorable game states.

NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 13 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Travis Etienne (+1800)

Although Etienne is sharing work with Bhayshul Tuten, he is still averaging 18 carries per game over the past four weeks as the Jaguars have steadily reduced Trevor Lawrence’s role.

The Jaguars are 6-point favorites, which provides a runway for Etienne to remain busy on Sunday.

The Titans have struggled to score points this season and are dealing with some offensive line injuries, which reduces the likelihood that Etienne is phased out of this game at any point.

The Titans are allowing 132 rushing yards per game and have allowed more than 100 rushing yards in all but two games this season.

Etienne is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, his highest since his rookie season, and 3.33 yards after contact, the best of his career, while playing for a new contract.

As a large favorite against the 32nd-place Titans, Etienne has the traits of a running back with a spike week potential.

As the third-largest favorite on a small slate, attacking a Jaguars running back at elevated odds provides a nice opportunity on Sunday.

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Week 13 Running Back Longshot Bet: Kenneth Gainwell & Jaylen Warren Combined Rush Yards

• 100+ Rushing Yards (+129)
• 125+ Rushing Yards (+349)
• 150+ Rushing Yards (+890)

The Buffalo Bills can’t stop the run, and Arthur Smith loves to establish the run.

The Bills are allowing 148.9 rushing yards per game and allowing 5.3 yards per rush.

Over the past three games, teams have averaged 169 rushing yards.

That includes the Texans and Buccaneers offenses, which have struggled to run the ball all season.

Both Warren and Gainwell combined for 28 rush attempts last week in a trailing game state against the Bears.

The Bills have allowed over 180 rushing yards in five games this season, which makes the highest ladder of 150 combined rushing yards appealing.

With Aaron Rodgers returning at less than 100% and DK Metcalf playing with an ankle injury, there is a scenario in which the Steelers rely on the ground game as much as possible.

Volume continues to be king for pass catchers.

Michael Wilson benefited from 18 targets to produce the best receiving game to date, racking up 185 receiving yards.

Eight pass catchers reached 100 yards receiving, including six wide receivers, one running back, and one tight end.

Trey McBride became the first tight end to register two 100-yard receiving games in a row this season.

He has benefited from the Cardinals allowing more than 40 points in back-to-back games.

Teams that fall behind early and continue to give up points don’t have the luxury to run the ball, which benefits the pass catchers.

Tight end usage continued to remain higher than in previous years, which is a trend likely to continue as teams increase heavy personnel usage.

There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards since there are more players who can potentially lead each week.

However, chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical as game state is least important for receivers.

NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:

Most Week 12 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): Amon-Ra St. Brown

While Jameson Williams has stolen the attention since Dan Campbell has taken over play calling duties, St. Brown’s peripherals remain incredible.

St. Brown has drawn a target on over 30% of his routes in 90% of his starts this season, including outtargeting Williams by a 20-14 margin over the past two weeks.

Also working in St Brown’s favor is the absence of Sam LaPorta.

In 2024, St Brown averaged 3.31 yards per route when LaPorta was not on the field, an increase of over a yard per route.

He saw an 8% increase in target share.

The Lions are playing at home indoors, which has provided Jared Goff with favorable passing splits over his career.

Most importantly, St. Brown faces an injured Giants secondary that rolls out man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate.

St. Brown has been targeted on 40.5% of his routes against man coverage this season.

The Lions are coming off an embarrassing offensive performance on national television, and this is an ideal matchup for St. Brown and the Lions to put up a crooked number on the New York Giants.

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Week 12 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Adonai Mitchell Bets

• Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• 60+ Receiving Yards (+376)
• Anytime Touchdown (+390)

Those who can read the Sharp Football Slack chats are aware of the fact that I was bullish on Adonai Mitchell last week.

Mitchell drew 6 targets and was targeted on 28.6% of his routes a week after being traded to a new team.

The results did not match, as Mitchell managed a single reception and 10 yards.

The Jets are turning to Tyrod Taylor this week, which provides a significant bump to the pass catchers.

In his only start this season, Taylor had 46 dropbacks including 21 dropbacks and 16 pass attempts in the first half.

In the past two games, Justin Fields has averaged 9.5 dropbacks and 6.5 pass attempts in the first half.

As mentioned in Rich Hribar’s Worksheet, in his short NFL career, Mitchell has been targeted on a league-high 42% of his routes against man coverage dating back to last year.

Mitchell may provide some volatility in turning his targets into production, but the underlying metrics are there for this young wide receiver.