Will Mauro – Sharp Football Analysis https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com Warren Sharp gives sports bettors predictive NFL analytics & visualized data, winning 60% on game totals and beating NFL lines with the sharpest edge in betting Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:56:06 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-sharp-helmet-logo-32x32.png Will Mauro – Sharp Football Analysis https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com 32 32 First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets: Super Bowl 60 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-first-touchdown-scorer-bet-picks-prediction/ Sun, 08 Feb 2026 11:00:57 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=55607 Drake Maye

Two of the most popular NFL bets this season are First Touchdown Scorer and Anytime Touchdown Scorer.

Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you their prediction on which player they think will score the first TD for every game.

These prop bets can be difficult to predict, but they are a fan favorite among many NFL bettors.

What is a first touchdown scorer bet?

To win this bet, you must correctly pick the player to score the first touchdown in the game — the first player who receives a touchdown pass or crosses the goal line with the ball.

A touchdown scorer is defined as the player in possession of the ball in the end zone and not the player who throws the TD.

What is an anytime touchdown scorer bet?

To win this NFL bet, you must correctly pick a player who will score a touchdown. Similar to first touchdown bets, the player is the one who crosses the end zone himself, not the QB who throws to that player.

Before placing your anytime TD or first TD bet, be sure to check out our BetMGM Sportsbook bonus code

First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions & Bets for Super Bowl 60

Patriots vs. Seahawks 1st TD Scorer Bet Prediction: Super Bowl 60

Drake Maye (QB, Patriots) is our pick for the first TD scorer bet (+1500)

The Seahawks defense has been one of the league’s strongest run-stopping units this season, ranking No. 1 in total defensive EPA (77.45) and defensive success rate (65.2%) against the run. Quarterbacks, however, have been their kryptonite. Against QB rushers, those ranks drop to 11th in success rate (50.0%) and 25th in defensive EPA (-2.27). Of the 9 rushing scores Seattle has allowed this season, 3 have come from quarterbacks (Bryce Young, Cam Ward, and Jayden Daniels). Maye enters this contest with 5 rushing touchdowns under his belt, including a six-yard run up the gut for New England’s only end-zone trip in the AFC Championship game. He finished the regular season ranked fourth among quarterbacks with 450 rushing yards, and he leads the league with 141 in the playoffs.

Bet it now +1500

Patriots vs. Seahawks Anytime TD Scorer Bet Prediction: Super Bowl 60

George Holani (RB, Seahawks) is our pick for the anytime TD scorer bet (+475)

Holani stepped in to pick up the slack left by Zach Charbonnet in last week’s NFC Championship game. He took 6 total touches (his most since Week 10) for 31 yards, including a 13-yard catch and run that set Seattle up for their second touchdown of the day. Charbonnet’s long-term absence sets Holani up to take on that duel-threat role once again in Super Bowl 60. Kenneth Walker III is expected to handle the majority of the rushing burden, as just two Seahawks players saw more total touches in last week’s win over the Rams.

Bet it now +475

Patriots vs. Seahawks Anytime TD Scorer Bet Prediction: Super Bowl 60

TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Patriots) is our pick for the anytime TD scorer bet (+550)

Henderson saw his smallest share of touches since Week 7 in the AFC Championship Game, taking his 3 carries for just 5 yards. This does make sense given the matchup, as New England found themselves in the red zone just twice last week (with the first trip only made possible by a Jarrett Stidham fumble). His performance last week was a far cry from his strong finish to the regular season, as he led New England with 628 yards and 8 touchdowns in the final eight weeks. Seattle’s prowess against the run could force Mike Vrabel to lean back into the tandem backfield he's spent the last six months developing. Of the 9 rushing scores the Seahawks have allowed this season, 4 of them came from Henderson’s wheelhouse: the one-yard line.

Bet it now +550


Patriots vs. Seahawks LONGSHOT 1st TD Scorer Bet Prediction: Super Bowl 60

Kayshon Boutte (WR, Patriots) is our longshot pick for the first TD scorer bet (+1800)

Boutte will have his work cut out for him against a Seattle defense that ranks No. 1 in yards per reception and completion rate allowed to outside receivers (where Boutte lines up on 90% of his routes). It’s a tall order, but New England’s rising star wideout could be the man for the job. Boutte has been one of the league’s most consistent deep ball receivers this season, with 30.3% of his receptions going for 20 or more yards. He’s also matched up well against similar defenses in this playoff alone. He combined for 81 yards and a touchdown on just 4 total catches against Houston and Denver (both defenses rank in the top six in yards per attempt allowed and top 10 in completion rate allowed). Boutte has pulled in 7 touchdown receptions in this 2025-26 season, including the 32-yard bomb that closed out New England’s 28-16 win over the Texans in the Wild Card Round.

Bet it now +1800

Patriots vs. Seahawks LONGSHOT Anytime TD Scorer Bet Prediction: Super Bowl 60

Jake Bobo (WR, Seahawks) is our longshot pick for the anytime TD scorer bet (+950)

Bobo came down with his fourth reception of the season in the NFC Championship Game on a 17-yard strike from Sam Darnold, landing in the end zone for his first touchdown in over a calendar year. Both of Bobo’s targets in Sunday’s win over the Rams came inside the red zone, accounting for 28.5% of Seattle’s passing attack inside the 20 on the day. The third-year wideout has made the most of the minimal targets he has seen this season, and his uptick in usage (however minimal) in the playoffs bodes well for his volume against this crowded New England secondary.

Bet it now +950

]]>
NFL Awards Picks & Predictions: NFL Honors Preview https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-awards-honors-picks-predictions-preview/ Mon, 02 Feb 2026 12:00:07 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=99771 Matthew Stafford

It’s been another year of explosive plays, shattered records, and burgeoning superstars.

What better way to celebrate the 2025 NFL season than with a preview of the upcoming NFL Honors award ceremony?

The event will be hosted on February 5, the Thursday before the Super Bowl, in San Francisco.

Here are our predictions for who’ll be taking home some of the most coveted accolades this league has to offer.

NFL Most Valuable Player Prediction: Matthew Stafford

Despite falling short in the playoffs, the 2025 regular season was a career-defining one for Matthew Stafford.

Through Week 18, Stafford ranked among the top 10 quarterbacks in average yards per completion (7.9) as well as average passer rating (109.2).

He also led the league with 4,707 passing yards and connected on a career-high 46 total touchdown passes (also ranked No. 1).

The next-closest quarterback in both metrics was Jared Goff, who fell 143 yards and 12 touchdowns shy of Stafford’s totals.

Stafford didn’t just outclass his 2025 competition. He also sports better passing stat lines than both of the previous two NFL MVPs.

Lamar Jackson passed for just 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns through his 2023 MVP campaign, while Josh Allen finished the season with 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns when he won the award last year.

Stafford’s success this season kept Los Angeles in contention despite a competitive NFC West, and he was able to elevate Davante Adams and Puka Nacua to new heights of their own, as well.

In the aftermath of his 17th season in the NFL, discussions regarding Stafford’s potential retirement are imminent.

Whether he decides to stay on remains to be seen, but this past season would serve as the perfect exclamation point on the end of one of the league’s most storied careers.

NFL Coach of the Year Prediction: Mike Vrabel

2025 produced a host of worthy candidates to take home the Coach of the Year Award.

We saw Liam Coen and Ben Johnson shift the culture in their respective new cities, while Mike Macdonald and Kyle Shanahan kept their winning ways alive in the NFC West.

But there is one success story that rises above the rest.

Mike Vrabel took the reins in New England in January of 2025, after the organization made the decision to move on from Jerod Mayo.

Disagreements with higher-ups in Tennessee ended his last head coaching gig, but Vrabel was able to prove all of his doubters wrong in just one season with the Patriots.

After the team won just four games under Mayo in 2024, Vrabel’s Patriots looked much more akin to the juggernaut of a team that Bill Belichick built his dynasty around.

New England won 14 of their 17 games this season, taking the AFC East by storm and finishing the regular season as the conference’s No. 2 playoff seed.

They’ve since run the table and earned themselves a trip back to the Super Bowl.

In Vrabel’s first season, the Patriots ranked sixth in rushing yards per game (128.9), fourth in passing yards per game (205.5), and second in points per game (28.82) behind only the Los Angeles Rams.

These are massive improvements compared to the 2024 Patriots, who ranked 13th in rush yards per game (115.8), 32nd in passing yards per game (176.2), and 30th in points per game (17.00).

Vrabel’s key to victory has been the prioritization of Drake Maye’s development.

Maye’s ascent to his newfound status as an elite passer has given Vrabel a team to build around, as all of New England’s developing skill position players benefit from a reliable quarterback-coach connection.

The newest of New England’s 16 head coaches fought hard to get to this point, and his efforts have gotten him just steps from the mountaintop.

Vrabel will have a chance to do what most coaches only dream of achieving in their first year with a new team on what’s shaping up to be a fateful first Sunday in February.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Although 2025 marked his third season as a starting wideout for the Seahawks, this year could certainly be considered one long coming-out party for Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

DK Metcalf’s sudden departure for Pittsburgh in the offseason raised questions regarding Smith-Njigba’s ability to command this offense without another Pro Bowl-caliber wideout alongside him (especially as it went hand-in-hand with the introduction of a new starting quarterback).

The former Buckeye responded to those concerns by catching 119 of his 163 targets for a league-high 1,793 yards and a career-best 10 touchdowns.

He was also among the top 10 receivers in yards after the catch (528 yards) and second with 79 total 1st downs.

In an offense that was expected to be thin on weapons (featuring an aging Cooper Kupp among a host of unproven youth) throughout 2025, Smith-Njigba became a beacon of hope that the Seahawks have since turned into an unexpected run to the Super Bowl.

There’s still time for Smith-Njigba to run away with two of the NFL’s most coveted trophies this season.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Prediction: Myles Garrett

Many of the other awards presented during this year’s NFL Honors will feature plenty of drama and speculation as to who the winner will be.

This is not one of those awards.

Even well before he shattered the NFL’s single-season sack record, a record that stood for 24 years after Michael Strahan set it back in 2002, Myles Garrett has been a shoo-in for this year’s Defensive Player of the Year award.

As impressive as his record-breaking 23 sacks were, Garrett’s impact goes much deeper than those handful of plays in which he was able to take down the quarterback.

Garrett also finished the season ranked fourth in the league with 84 pressures and second with 37 quarterback hits.

He also recovered 3 fumbles on the season.

The utter chaos Garrett unleashed as part of this Browns’ front-seven allowed Cleveland to foster a top-three pass defense in the league, holding opponents to an average of just 167.2 yards per game through the air.

Garrett isn’t the only Browns’ player eligible for one of these awards, but he was certainly the team’s, and arguably the league’s, most valuable defensive asset in 2025.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction: Jaxson Dart

No other rookie this season was able to alter the landscape of his offense quite like Jaxson Dart did for the New York Giants in 2025.

Despite winning just 4 of his 12 starts, Dart put up the kind of numbers that scream potential.

He ranked second among rookie quarterbacks with 2,272 passing yards (behind only Cam Ward, who played five more games than Dart), and third in average passer rating with 91.7 (behind Tyler Shough and Riley Leonard, who played 3 and 11 fewer games than Dart, respectively).

Dart also finished the season with a top-10 TD:INT ratio, beating out all other rookie passers in that metric.

To the dismay of many fans, the former Ole Miss Rebel also found a niche in the running game.

When Dart was able to stay on the field, he ranked third among all quarterbacks with 487 rushing yards on the season, and he tied Trevor Lawrence with a second-ranked 9 rushing touchdowns on the year.

Dart’s season may not have ended the way anyone in New York hoped, but his rookie year set him up nicely for the future as he waits on his full cast of weapons to return to playing condition.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction: Carson Schwesinger

He may be one of just two finalists for this award who were not first-round draft picks, but Carson Schwesinger had the kind of rookie season that makes one wonder how he fell to the second round in the first place.

After closing out his impressive collegiate run as a UCLA Bruin, Schwesinger ranked fifth in the NFL (1st on his team by a large margin) with 156 total tackles.

11 of those came behind the line of scrimmage, ranking him third on the Browns in TFLs behind Myles Garrett and Alex Wright.

Schwesinger also recorded a pair of interceptions (ranked 2nd on the team) as well as 3 batted passes on the year.

In just one season, Schwesinger has managed to make himself a fixture in this tight Browns’ defense, and he’ll likely be an integral part of their continued rebuild in the coming seasons.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Prediction: Christian McCaffrey

After a season-ending PCL injury halted his 2024 campaign after just four weeks, Christian McCaffrey rallied in 2025 to complete his first full season since 2022.

Injuries have plagued McCaffrey for the entirety of his nine-year career, but he’s proven time and again that he can assert a commanding role in any offense as long as he’s able to stay on the field.

Through his first full season back, McCaffrey made his re-ascension to the top of the NFL’s scrimmage yard charts look like muscle memory.

If he did lose a step after his most recent ailments, it wasn’t noticeable this season.

McCaffrey finished his ninth season in the NFL with 1,202 rushing yards (ranked 8th) and 924 receiving yards (ranked 24th), making him the second-most productive player in the league behind Bijan Robinson.

He and Bijan were the only two players to break 2,000 total scrimmage yards in 2025.

The 49ers were one of the NFL’s most injured teams in 2025.

The list of the fallen includes defensive touchstones like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and rookie Mykel Williams.

On offense, the 49ers played without keystones such as George Kittle and even Brock Purdy for parts of the season.

Through all those losses, McCaffrey’s continued perseverance served as a lifeline for San Francisco.

His efforts helped the embattled 49ers secure a 12-5 record, and they were even able to steal a playoff victory in Philadelphia before their Divisional Round defeat.

While it may not be the trophy he was hoping to hoist in the Bay Area this year, a Comeback Player of the Year win for McCaffrey might inspire his teammates to return with that same fire under them in 2026.

]]>
Super Bowl 60 Odds Tracker: Predictions, Favorites & Sleepers https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/super-bowl-odds-predictions-best-bets-nfl/ Mon, 19 Jan 2026 15:00:37 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=66167 Drake Maye

The 2025 NFL season is nearing the end, and the Super Bowl 60 picture is coming into focus.

Below you can find current odds to win and best bets, including favorites and sleepers.

2025 NFL Futures & Award Odds
Super Bowl 60 Odds
2025 NFL MVP Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

All betting lines are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.

Prediction: Who will win Super Bowl 60?

The Seattle Seahawks (+150) are the current favorite to win Super Bowl LX based on betting markets, followed by:

  • Los Angeles Rams (+220)
  • New England Patriots (+250)
  • Denver Broncos (+1300)

» Bet the Rams to win the Super Bowl

Super Bowl 60 Odds

TeamCurrent Super Bowl OddsOpening Odds
Seattle Seahawks+150+6000
Los Angeles Rams+220+2500
New England Patriots+250+4000
Denver Broncos+1300+750
Philadelphia EaglesEliminated+650
Buffalo BillsEliminated+2000
Houston TexansEliminated+12500
Jacksonville JaguarsEliminated+10000
Green Bay PackersEliminated+2500
Chicago BearsEliminated+800
San Francisco 49ersEliminated+1400
Los Angeles ChargersEliminated+700
Pittsburgh SteelersEliminated+8000
Carolina PanthersEliminated+15000
Baltimore RavensEliminated+2500
Tampa Bay BuccaneersEliminated+3500
Detroit LionsEliminated+4000
Indianapolis ColtsEliminated+6600
Dallas CowboysEliminated+10000
Kansas City ChiefsEliminated+750
Cincinnati BengalsEliminated+1800
Washington CommandersEliminated+2000
Minnesota VikingsEliminated+3500
Miami DolphinsEliminated+4000
Atlanta FalconsEliminated+6000
Arizona CardinalsEliminated+6600
New York JetsEliminated+10000
New Orleans SaintsEliminated+15000
Cleveland BrownsEliminated+15000
Las Vegas RaidersEliminated+15000
Tennessee TitansEliminated+20000
New York GiantsEliminated+30000

Where will Super Bowl 60 be?

Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California on Sunday, February 8, 2026 at Levi's Stadium. This will be the second Super Bowl played at Levi's Stadium and the third to be played in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Best Bet: Favorite to win Super Bowl 60

New England Patriots (+250)

The two NFC teams are probably better than the Patriots, but New England has a clear path to the Super Bowl.

The Broncos will be without Bo Nix in the AFC Championship game, giving the Patriots the opportunity to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl against a backup quarterback.

New England probably will not be favored if they make the Super Bowl, but these are decent odds for a team we expect to make the big game.

» Bet the Patriots to win the Super Bowl

Betting Trends for Past Super Bowl Winners

  • The AFC has won 6 of the last 10 Super Bowls
  • The AFC’s top seed has advanced to the Super Bowl in 6 of the last 10 seasons
  • 5 of the last 10 NFC teams to play in the Super Bowl were the top seed in the conference
  • The Chiefs or Eagles have won 5 of the last 8 Super Bowls.

Past Super Bowl Winner Preseason Odds

  • 2024: Philadelphia Eagles +1600
  • 2023: Kansas City Chiefs +600
  • 2022: Kansas City Chiefs +800
  • 2021: Los Angeles Rams +1400
  • 2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000
  • 2019: Kansas City Chiefs +600
  • 2018: New England Patriots +600
  • 2017: Philadelphia Eagles +4000

When should you bet on the Super Bowl 60 Winner?

If you're betting on Super Bowl LX favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season. That way you'll keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months or possibly use a bonus bet that does not tie up cash for months.

If making a bet early, identify teams that could have volatility in their odds with a single trade or signing, take a chance on those teams, and gain closing line value.

When placing a future bet like the Super Bowl 60 winner, an important concept to understand is the time value of money. It is the idea that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to inflation and its earning potential in the interim.

Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the Super Bowl 60 bet will not be graded until February 2026, tying up funds wagered for a long time.

Before placing your Super Bowl Bet, be sure to check out BetMGM Sportsbook bonus code

]]>
Against the Spread Record for Every NFL Head Coach https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-head-coach-against-the-spread-record/ Sun, 11 Jan 2026 15:00:54 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=110255 Dan Campbell

Successful NFL betting is about finding an edge.

While player matchups and team form are critical, one of the most overlooked factors is the head coach's record against the spread (ATS).

Some coaches consistently have their teams ready to outperform expectations, while others struggle, creating profitable opportunities for savvy bettors.

This guide breaks down the complete ATS records for every NFL head coach, giving you the data you need to make more informed wagers.

NFL Head Coach ATS Records:

CoachATS RecordATS Win %
Kyle Shanahan74-73-250.3%
Ben Johnson10-6-162.5%
Zac Taylor63-52-154.8%
Sean McDermott78-65-554.5%
Sean Payton157-130-554.7%
Kevin Stefanski43-57-143.0%
Todd Bowles62-68-547.7%
Jonathan Gannon26-24-052.0%
Jim Harbaugh59-36-362.1%
Andy Reid219-193-953.2%
Shane Steichen27-24-052.9%
Dan Quinn54-64-145.8%
Brian Schottenheimer7-10-041.2%
Mike McDaniel34-34-050.0%
Nick Sirianni44-38-353.7%
Raheem Morris41-51-144.6%
Brian Daboll31-29-151.7%
Liam Coen12-5-070.6%
Aaron Glenn7-10-041.2%
Dan Campbell59-37-161.5%
Matt LaFleur64-52-155.2%
Dave Canales18-16-052.9%
Mike Vrabel61-52-354.0%
Pete Carroll124-111-952.8%
Sean McVay79-66-454.5%
John Harbaugh148-135-1052.3%
Kellen Moore9-8-052.9%
Mike Macdonald18-14-256.3%
Mike Tomlin163-140-653.8%
DeMeco Ryans25-25-150.0%
Mike McCoy36-38-148.6%
Kevin O'Connell33-30-552.4%

NFL Head Coach ATS Winning Percentage:

Coach Team SU Win % ATS Win % ATS Home % ATS Road % Over %
Kyle Shanahan 49ers 55.0 50.3 43.8 56.8 54.5
Ben Johnson Bears 64.7 62.5 57.1 66.7 52.9
Zac Taylor Bengals 45.3 54.8 49.1 60.3 51.8
Sean McDermott Bills 66.2 54.5 52.8 56.3 47.3
Sean Payton Broncos 63.0 54.7 54.5 54.9 52.8
Kevin Stefanski Browns 44.6 43.0 51.0 34.7 50.5
Todd Bowles Bucs 45.2 47.7 46.2 49.2 49.6
Jonathan Gannon Cardinals 30.0 52.0 48.0 56.0 56.3
Jim Harbaugh Chargers 67.9 62.1 59.6 64.6 45.4
Andy Reid Chiefs 65.2 53.2 48.3 58.0 48.0
Shane Steichen Colts 49.0 52.9 50.0 56.0 58.0
Dan Quinn Commanders 50.4 45.8 48.3 43.1 52.5
Brian Schottenheimer Cowboys 44.1 41.2 50.0 33.3 76.5
Mike McDaniel Dolphins 51.5 50.0 55.9 44.1 50.0
Nick Sirianni Eagles 69.4 53.7 52.5 54.8 50.6
Raheem Morris Falcons 39.8 44.6 32.6 56.5 45.7
Brian Daboll Giants 33.6 51.7 55.2 48.4 39.3
Liam Coen Jaguars 76.5 70.6 77.8 62.5 58.8
Aaron Glenn Jets 17.6 41.2 44.4 37.5 64.7
Dan Campbell Lions 55.2 61.5 61.7 61.2 54.2
Matt LaFleur Packers 65.4 55.2 60.3 50.0 50.0
Dave Canales Panthers 38.2 52.9 58.8 47.1 58.8
Mike Vrabel Patriots 58.6 54.0 52.6 55.4 52.2
Pete Carroll Raiders 57.6 52.8 55.5 50.0 49.6
Sean McVay Rams 61.7 54.5 53.5 55.4 49.0
John Harbaugh Ravens 61.4 52.3 47.2 57.6 50.3
Kellen Moore Saints 35.3 52.9 37.5 66.7 29.4
Mike Macdonald Seahawks 70.6 56.3 37.5 75.0 52.9
Mike Tomlin Steelers 62.8 53.8 55.6 52.0 44.4
DeMeco Ryans Texans 62.7 50.0 46.2 54.2 36.0
Mike McCoy Titans 38.7 48.6 43.6 54.3 50.0
Kevin O'Connell Vikings 63.2 52.4 47.1 58.6 48.5
]]>
Best Teasers Bets: Picks & Predictions, NFL Wild Card Round https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/best-teaser-bets-picks-prediction-alternate-spreads-today/ Fri, 09 Jan 2026 10:00:52 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=75581

Teaser bets are a fun way to get involved in betting. Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you the teams that make the most sense to put into teaser bets.

What is a teaser bet?

A teaser bet is a wager that allows the bettor to move the line by a certain number of points to an alternate spread. Sportsbooks require bettors to combine two or more bets on teasers, making it a modified parlay bet.

The most common teaser is a six-point teaser, and the standard payout for a two-leg, six-point teaser is -120. The odds improve as more legs are added, but so does the risk.

The odds vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, and the rules on how pushes are handled also vary. Be sure to check the specific odds and rules for your sportsbook and shop around.

Teaser bet example:

A bettor is interested in both the Chiefs at -7 and the Bills at -10, but they are not sure about those large spreads. They put together a six-point teaser bet, moving the Chiefs to -1 and Bills to -4. If both the Chiefs (-1) and Bills (-4) cover the lower spreads, the teaser bet wins.

Best strategy to win NFL teasers bets:

Always cross a key number when teasing the spread, primarily focusing on 3 points and 7 points, and specifically look for teasers that cross both 3 and 7.

» Bet NFL teasers and alternate spreads

Below are the NFL Week 18 teams that fit the best strategy for 6-point teaser bets. You would combine two or more of these alternate spreads to form a teaser bet.

Best NFL Wild Card Round Bet Options:

TeamOpponentSpreadAlternate Spread
RamsPanthers-10.5-4.5
BearsPackers+1.5+7.5
JaguarsBills+1.5+7.5

Wild Card Round NFL Teaser Pick:

  • Rams -4.5
  • Jaguars +7.5

If you combined the Rams and Jaguars alternate spreads for this 6-point teaser bet, the odds would be -135. If you wagered $100 on this, you’d win $174.07 ($74.07 profit).

» Bet this teaser now

What is an alternate spread bet?

An alternate spread is a custom line that is either higher or lower than the official line on a game. The bet offers either improved or worse odds depending on how the line is moved. Unlike a teaser, alternate spreads can be bet individually.

]]>
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions, Odds & Best Bets https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-odds-best-bets/ Mon, 29 Dec 2025 13:00:55 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=84999 Tetairoa McMillan

Get the latest Offensive Rookie of the Year betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2025 NFL season.

2025 NFL Futures & Award Odds
Super Bowl 60 Odds
2025 NFL MVP Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win

PlayerTeamCurrent Odds
Tetairoa McMillanCarolina Panthers-115
Tyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints+135
TreVeyon HendersonNew England Patriots+1000
Jaxson DartNew York Giants+1600
Emeka EgbukaTampa Bay Buccaneers+1600

Favorite to win the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:

Tetairoa McMillan is the current favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at -115 odds. He is followed by:

  • Tyler Shough (+135)
  • TreVeyon Henderson (+1000)

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Trends

  • While MVP is almost always a quarterback, the Offensive Rookie of the Year has been a wide receiver or running back in seven of the last 12 seasons
  • Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase won the award in 2022 and 2021, respectively, before C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels took home the award in the last two seasons.
  • The last 7 winners were selected in the top 10.
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were selected in the first round.

Best Bet to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year:

Tyler Shough (+135)

Without a clear top option, it might make sense to take a chance on Shough despite the Saints' overall lack of team success.

He has been playing well lately and has the Saints looking like the best team in the division, even though their hopes of reaching the playoffs ended some time ago.

» Bet it now: +135

When should you bet on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

If you are betting on Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way, you will keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.

When placing a future bet like the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, an important concept to understand is the time value of money, the concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.

Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year bet will not be graded until February 2025, tying up funds wagered for nine months.

Does this concept mean no Offensive Rookie of the Year bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes. Also, the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.

]]>
2025 NFL MVP Odds: Predictions, Favorites & Best Bets https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-mvp-odds-predictions-favorites-best-bets/ Mon, 29 Dec 2025 13:00:54 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=66192 Drake Maye

Get the latest NFL MVP betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2025 NFL season.

2025 NFL Futures & Award Odds
Super Bowl 60 Odds
2025 NFL MVP Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

2025 NFL MVP Odds to Win

PlayerTeamCurrent Odds
Drake MayeNew England Patriots-450
Matthew StaffordLos Angeles Rams+310
Trevor LawrenceJacksonville Jaguars+25000
Caleb WilliamsChicago Bears+25000
Josh AllenBuffalo Bills+30000

Favorites to win the 2025 NFL MVP:

Drake Maye is the current favorite to win the 2025 NFL MVP at -450 odds. He is followed by:

  • Matthew Stafford (+310)
  • Trevor Lawrence (+25000)
  • Caleb Williams (+25000)
  • Josh Allen (+30000)

Best Bet to win the 2025 NFL MVP:

Drake Maye (-450)

Maye tightened his grip on the MVP trophy with a 5-touchdown performance in a blowout win over the Jets.

The Patriots still are playing for seeding this week, which should prompt Maye to play a full game in the season finale.

Matthew Stafford might not get the same opportunity with the Rams no longer in the running for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

» Bet it now: -450

NFL MVP Betting Trends

  • The last 12 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks.
  • Since 2001, only 3 non-quarterbacks have won NFL MVP – all were running backs.
  • Since 2001, almost every NFL MVP winner has been on a team that won at least 11 games. Adrian Peterson’s MVP season was the only exception, with the Vikings winning 10 games in 2012.

When Should You Bet on NFL MVP?

If you're betting on MVP favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way you'll keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.

When placing a future bet like the 2025 NFL MVP, an important concept to understand is the time value of money, the concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.

Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2025 NFL MVP bet will not be graded until February 2025, tying up funds wagered for nearly 10 months.

Does this concept mean no MVP bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes. Also, the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.

Before placing your MVP Bet, be sure to check out BetMGM Sportsbook bonus code

]]>
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Odds, Favorites & Best Bets https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-defensive-player-year-predictions-favorites-best-bets/ Mon, 29 Dec 2025 13:00:51 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=85014 Myles Garrett

Get the latest NFL MVP Defensive Player of the Year betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2025 NFL season.

2025 NFL Futures & Award Odds
Super Bowl 60 Odds
2025 NFL MVP Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds to Win

PlayerTeamCurrent Odds
Myles GarrettCleveland Browns-10000
Will Anderson Jr. Houston Texans+6000
Nik BonittoDenver Broncos+8000
Danielle Hunter Houston Texans+10000
Brian BurnsNew York Giants+10000

Who is the current favorite to win the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year?

Myles Garrett is currently the favorite to win the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year at -10000. He is followed by:

  • Will Anderson Jr. (+6000)
  • Nik Bonitto (+8000)

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Betting Trends

  • Edge rushers have won 8 of the last 15 Defensive Player of the Year Awards, with Aaron Donald earning another 3 during that span.
  • Defensive backs have won 3 of the last 15 Defensive Player of the Year Awards, including Patrick Surtain last season.

Best Bet to win the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year:

Myles Garrett (-10000)

There is no value on this bet at this point, but there is also no other pick.

Even if he does not end up breaking the single-season record, Garrett appears to be locked in for Defensive Player of the Year.

» Bet it now: -10000

When Should You Bet on the Defensive Player of the Year?

If you're betting on Defensive Player of the Year favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way, you'll keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.

When placing a future bet, an important concept to understand is the time value of money. The concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.

Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year bet will not be graded until February 2025, tying up funds wagered for many months.

Does this concept insinuate that no future bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes, also the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.

]]>
2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds & Past Winners https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-coach-of-the-year-odds-best-bet/ Mon, 29 Dec 2025 13:00:38 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=64352 Mike Vrabel

Get the latest Coach of the Year betting odds and track movement for all top coaches during the 2025 NFL season.

2025 NFL Futures & Award Odds
Super Bowl 60 Odds
2025 NFL MVP Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds:

CoachTeamCurrent Odds
Mike VrabelNew England Patriots-145
Kyle ShanahanSan Francisco 49ers+185
Mike MacdonaldSeattle Seahawks+750
Liam CoenJacksonville Jaguars+1700
Ben JohnsonChicago Bears+3000
Sean PaytonDenver Broncos+6600

Favorite to win the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year:

Mike Vrabel is the current favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year at -145 odds. He is followed by:

  • Kyle Shanahan (+185)
  • Mike Macdonald (+750)

Best Bet to win NFL Coach of the Year:

Kyle Shanahan (+185)

Mike Vrabel is the favorite for a reason, but the value pick at current odds might be Shanahan.

The 49ers have a shot to earn the No. 1 seed, which would be a spectacular achievement given how many injuries they have dealt with this season.

» Bet it now: +185

Past NFL Coach of the Year winners:

  • 2024: Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
  • 2023: Kevin Stefanski, Browns
  • 2022: Brian Daboll, Giants
  • 2021: Mike Vrabel, Titans
  • 2020: Kevin Stefanksi, Browns
  • 2019: John Harbaugh, Ravens
  • 2018: Matt Nagy, Bears
  • 2017: Sean McVay, Rams
  • 2016: Jason Garrett, Cowboys
  • 2015: Ron Rivera, Panthers
  • 2014: Bruce Arians, Cardinals
  • 2013: Ron Rivera, Panthers
  • 2012: Bruce Arians, Colts
  • 2011: Jim Harbaugh, 49ers
  • 2010: Bill Belichick, Patriots
  • 2009: Marvin Lewis, Bengals
  • 2008: Mike Smith, Falcons
  • 2007: Bill Belichick, Patriots
  • 2006: Sean Payton, Saints
  • 2005: Lovie Smith, Bears
  • 2004: Marty Schottenheimer, Chargers
  • 2003: Bill Belichick, Patriots
  • 2002: Andy Reid, Eagles
  • 2001: Dick Jauron, Bears
]]>
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Predictions, Odds & Best Bets https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-odds-best-bets/ Mon, 29 Dec 2025 13:00:25 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=85033 Carson Schwesinger

Get the latest Defensive Rookie of the Year betting odds and track movement for all top players during the 2025 NFL season.

2025 NFL Futures & Award Odds
Super Bowl 60 Odds
2025 NFL MVP Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win

PlayerTeamCurrent Odds
Carson SchwesingerCleveland Browns-750
James Pearce Jr.Atlanta Falcons+800
Nick EmmanworiSeattle Seahawks+800

Who is most likely to win the 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?

Carson Schwesinger is the current favorite to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at -750 odds. He is followed by:

  • James Pearce Jr. (+800)
  • Nick Emmanwori (+800)

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting Trends

  • Defensive Rookie of the Year has been an EDGE player for 5 of the last 6 seasons including Jared Verse last season.
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year has been a cornerback for 3 of the last 10 years including Sauce Gardner in 2022.
  • Shaquille Leonard is the only off-ball linebacker to win the award in the last 10 seasons.
  • Aaron Donald was the last defensive tackle to win the award back in 2014.

Best Bet to Win the 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year:

Carson Schwesinger (-750)

Schwesinger is playing through an injury to end his rookie season, but he remains the clear favorite for this award.

The rookie is tied for fifth in the league in tackles with 2 interceptions.

» Bet it now: -750

When should you bet on the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?

If you are betting on Defensive Rookie of the Year favorites, you should place bets closer to the start of the season — that way, you will keep funds in your account for an extra couple of months.

When placing a future bet like the 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, an important concept to understand is the time value of money, the concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim.

Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as the 2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year bet will not be graded until February 2025, tying up funds wagered for nine months.

Does this concept mean no Defensive Rookie of the Year bets should be made until closer to the season? No, the offseason is a great time to identify mispriced higher-odds players that could have their odds shift significantly with roster changes. Also, the players with higher odds reduce the time value effect as the potential payout is higher.

]]>
2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Who Will Jaguars Select at No. 5? https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2025-nfl-draft-jaguars-predictions-fifth-pick/ Mon, 21 Apr 2025 22:11:14 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=103271 Mason Graham

It’s hard to believe that this is the same team that once brought AFC offenses to heel at the might of the Sacksonville defensive front just a few short years ago.

The days of the Todd Walsh defense are over in Duvall, and the Jaguars are coming off a 2024 regular season in which they ranked in the bottom five of points allowed per game (25.6 PA/G).

But this refurbished front office has its sights set on greater things than another failed AFC Championship bid.

While much of the buzz going into this draft has been focused on the top three picks, new GM James Gladstone will have plenty of options, especially considering the holes he’ll look to fill on both sides of the ball.

2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars

Author NameAffiliationPick (#)
Brendan DonahueSharp Football AnalysisMason Graham (5)
Ryan McCrystalSharp Football AnalysisMason Graham (5)
Cynthia FrelundNFLJahdae Barron (5)
Lance ZierleinNFLMason Graham (5)
Chad ReuterNFLMason Graham (5)
Eric EdholmNFLAshton Jeanty (5)
Bucky BrooksNFLMason Graham (5)
Daniel JeremiahNFLJalon Walker (5)
Dan ParrNFLMason Graham (5)
B/R NFL Scouting Dept.Bleacher ReportMason Graham (5)
Josh EdwardsCBS SportsWill Campbell (5)
Richie BradshawSports IllustratedTravis Hunter (5)
Michael Middlehurst-SchwartzUSA TodayMason Graham (5)
----Pro Football FocusMason Graham (5)
Steven CheahBarstool SportsArmand Membou (5)
Vinny IyerThe Sporting NewsArmand Membou (5)
Connor HughesSNYMason Graham (5)
Nick BaumgartnerNew York Times/The AthleticMason Graham (5)
Danny KellyThe RingerTetairoa McMillan (5)
Jason McIntyreFox SportsMason Graham (5)
Mike FanelliFantasy ProsMason Graham (5)
Field YatesESPNMason Graham (5)
Kyle DvorchakNBC SportsMason Graham (5)
Mike RennerCBS SportsMason Graham (5)
Ryan WilsonCBS SportsTetairoa McMillan (5)
Chris TrapassoCBS SportsMason Graham (5)

Results of 26 Mock Drafts:

  • Mason Graham: 14
  • Will Campbell: 4
  • Travis Hunter: 2
  • Tetairoa McMillan: 2
  • Armand Membou: 1
  • Jahdae Barron: 1
  • Jalon Walker: 1
  • Tyler Warren: 1

Current Prediction for the Jaguars at No. 5 overall: Mason Graham

Brendan Donahue, the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Ryan McCrystal, the #8 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Analysis

Ironically, the two leading projections for the fifth overall pick possess similar perceived weaknesses despite playing on opposite sides of the ball.

Experts have praised the strength and agility of DL Mason Graham and OL Will Campbell, who both scored similarly in the Relative Athletic Score system (Campbell scored a 9.91 out of 10, Graham scored a 9.90), but critiques regarding size and shorter-than-average arm length remain on the minds of many general managers.

Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports puts this issue in perspective well in his early-March review of Graham, stating, “Yes, his arms are considered short by NFL defensive tackle standards, but let's try not to fall for the same, tired trick we fall for every year. Forget the measurables and look at the tape.”

He goes on to cite 2024 defensive rookie of the year candidate Braden Fiske, who fell to the second round last year due to similar concerns.

While both of these players are poised to fill several voids in the Jaguars organization, there are many conflicting opinions as to how exactly Jacksonville would utilize these young stars.

Steven Cheah of Barstool Sports takes Campbell as the run-blocker to lead the Liam Coen rushing offense into the future, while Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News speaks about Campbell as a necessity to “keep [Trevor] Lawrence upright enough to hit on more downfield passes.”

Likewise, SNY’s Connor Hughes (despite picking Graham) questions his necessity on a defensive line already packed with talent (Josh Hines-Allen, Arik Armstead, Travon Walker), while Mike Renner of CBS called Jacksonville’s interior d-line “a non-factor last season.”

Outliers

While he has been projected to drop in more recent mocks, Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com predicts that the Jaguars will address their needs at cornerback with Texas DB Jahdae Barron.

Eric Edholm (also of NFL.com) had similar aspirations for Penn State TE Tyler Warren to fill the starting tight end role following the departure of Evan Engram.

There are two drafts (Lance Zierlein of NFL.com and Danny Kelly of The Ringer) projecting that Jacksonville will select Tetairoa McMillan, whose control and route-running abilities set him apart as the highest graded wideout on most boards heading into this draft.

McMillan makes for the most likely fit of these outliers, although it is likely that Jacksonville will look to prioritize other needs.

There is some speculation that Travis Hunter may drop, but his availability at fifth overall is entirely contingent on four interested parties passing on him, which makes the possibility of this selection likely unfeasible despite Jacksonville’s needs at both receiver and corner.

Potential Trades

There were no trades projected by any of these 26 mock drafts, and rightfully so.

The Jaguars are sitting in just about the best position possible for their needs.

The lack of immediate concerns at quarterback negates a need to jump up, while the talent they require is expected to remain available by the fifth overall pick.

]]>
2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Who Will Patriots Select at No. 4? https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2025-nfl-draft-patriots-predictions-fourth-pick/ Mon, 21 Apr 2025 22:00:31 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=102681 Travis Hunter

It’s a new era in New England, and the Patriots are looking to build around a young quarterback who showed flashes as a rookie.

With a proven coach in Mike Vrabel taking up the reins, the NFL’s former team-to-beat will turn to the 2025 draft as the next step toward a return to its winning ways.

2025 NFL Draft Predictions: New England Patriots

Author NameAffiliationPick (#)
Brendan DonahueSharp Football AnalysisWill Campbell (4)
Ryan McCrystalSharp Football AnalysisWill Campbell (4)
Cynthia FrelundNFLWill Campbell (4)
Lance ZierleinNFLWill Campbell (4)
Chad ReuterNFLAshton Jeanty (4)
Eric EdholmNFLWill Campbell (4)
Bucky BrooksNFLAbdul Carter (4)
Daniel JeremiahNFLTravis Hunter (4)
Dan ParrNFLWill Campbell (4)
B/R NFL Scouting Dept.Bleacher ReportWill Campbell (4)
Josh EdwardsCBS SportsJalon Walker (7 via NYJ)
Richie BradshawSports IllustratedWill Campbell (4)
Michael Middlehurst-SchwartzUSA TodayAbdul Carter (4)
----Pro Football FocusWill Campbell (4)
Steven CheahBarstool SportsTravis Hunter (4)
Vinny IyerThe Sporting NewsAbdul Carter (4)
Connor HughesSNYTetairoa McMillan (4)
Nick BaumgartnerNew York Times/The AthleticWill Campbell (4)
Danny KellyThe RingerMason Graham (4)
Jason McIntyreFox SportsTravis Hunter (4)
Mike FanelliFantasy ProsKelvin Banks (12 via DAL)
Field YatesESPNWill Campbell (4)
Kyle DvorchakNBC SportsArmand Membou (4)
Mike RennerCBS SportsWill Campbell (4)
Ryan WilsonCBS SportsWill Campbell (4)
Chris TrapassoCBS SportsWill Campbell (4)

Results of 26 Mock Drafts:

  • Travis Hunter: 9
  • Will Campbell: 9
  • Mason Graham: 3
  • Tetairoa McMillan: 2
  • Armand Membou: 2
  • Kelvin Banks Jr: 1

Current Prediction for the Patriots at No. 4 Overall: Travis Hunter or Will Campbell

Brendan Donahue, the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Ryan McCrystal, the #8 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Analysis

Unsurprisingly, the Patriots' draft plan this year will be centered around Drake Maye, with the name of the game being the acquisition of either weapons or protection for their young starter.

Similarly unsurprising is the fact that New England seems to have their sights set on Travis Hunter to complement Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas in the receiving room.

In mocks where Hunter is already off the board after the first three picks, the conversation at receiver predominantly boils down to Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, but many analysts project a pivot to one of the two major prospects at tackle.

There has been much deliberation regarding the two highly graded SEC linemen of this draft, as there has been mention of both LSU’s Will Campbell and Mizzou’s Armand Membou going in the top five.

Concerns surrounding Campbell’s shorter-than-average arms persist, and Membou’s dominant Combine numbers have placed him at the forefront of this conversation since early March.

It would be difficult for most other teams to justify passing up on a Heisman Trophy winning WR/CB with the fourth overall pick, but offensive tackle remains a massive gap in the roster that New England will need to fill if they hope to develop their burgeoning star quarterback.

Still, this selection could go either way depending on how the first three picks shake out.

Outliers

While many early mocks projected potential moves to gain some trade-back value before taking Michigan DT Mason Graham, three of these mocks currently have New England grabbing Graham with the fourth pick despite the likelihood of his availability down the board.

Graham is the highest-graded defensive tackle on the board by a large margin, regarded by CBS’s Chris Trapasso as “one of the most disruptive players in this entire class.”

But the fact remains that if the Patriots are committed enough to Graham, they would still be able to secure some trade value and pick him up later in the top 10.

Teams like Jacksonville (5), Las Vegas (6), Carolina (8), and Chicago (10) all have a surplus of later-round picks with needs to fill that could justify a trade-up to four.

There is also some conversation regarding Texas tackle Kelvin Banks Jr, but as he continues to drop on many draft boards due to perceived inconsistency.

Potential Trades

Only one mock is currently projecting a trade out of the No. 4 pick for New England despite the high upside.

Brendan Donahue of Sharp Football Analysis is predicting a trade back to Carolina’s No. 8 overall pick.

While the questions surrounding Campbell’s physical metrics may cause him to drop on some boards, Donahue insists that he has the makings of “a day-one starter” that would fill an immediate need for the Patriots.

]]>
2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Who Will Titans Select at No. 1? https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2025-nfl-draft-titans-predictions-first-pick/ Mon, 21 Apr 2025 22:00:30 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=101627 Cam Ward

It’s been 10 years since Tennessee called Marcus Mariota’s name with the second overall pick in the 2015 draft.

In the nine drafts since, four more quarterbacks were selected in hopes of finding the man to push the Titans to the top.

None of those picks panned out, and new GM Mike Borgonzi finds himself in an interesting position.

Will he take another shot at finding the quarterback of the future, or will he opt for a safer pick in a draft overflowing with talent?

Let's examine mock draft results from around the industry to see what might happen.

2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Tennessee Titans

Author NameAffiliationPick (#)
Brendan DonahueSharp Football AnalysisCam Ward (1)
Ryan McCrystalSharp Football AnalysisCam Ward (1)
Cynthia FrelundNFLTravis Hunter (1)
Lance ZierleinNFLCam Ward (1)
Chad ReuterNFLCam Ward (1)
Eric EdholmNFLCam Ward (1)
Bucky BrooksNFLCam Ward (1)
Daniel JeremiahNFLCam Ward (1)
Dan ParrNFLCam Ward (1)
B/R NFL Scouting Dept.Bleacher ReportCam Ward (1)
Josh EdwardsCBS SportsCam Ward (1)
Richie BradshawSports IllustratedCam Ward (1)
Michael Middlehurst-SchwartzUSA TodayCam Ward (1)
----Pro Football FocusCam Ward (1)
Steven CheahBarstool SportsCam Ward (1)
Vinny IyerThe Sporting NewsCam Ward (1)
Connor HughesSNYCam Ward (1)
The Athletic NFL Staff and moreNew York Times/The AthleticAbdul Carter (1)
Danny KellyThe RingerAbdul Carter (1)
Jason McIntyreFox SportsCam Ward (1)
Mike FanelliFantasyProsCam Ward (1)
Field YatesESPNCam Ward (1)
Kyle DvorchakNBC SportsCam Ward (1)
Mike RennerCBS SportsCam Ward (1)
Ryan WilsonCBS SportsCam Ward (1)
Chris TrapassoCBS SportsCam Ward (1)

Results of 26 Mock Drafts:

  • Cam Ward: 14
    Abdul Carter: 8
    Travis Hunter: 4

Current Prediction for the Titans at No. 1 Overall: Cam Ward

Brendan Donahue, the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Ryan McCrystal, the #8 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Analysis

Of the nine mock drafts that retained their original picks, eight of them remain in favor of Cam Ward.

Overall, 15 picks still favor the Miami Hurricanes superstar to go first overall.

The major narrative shift regarding this #1 pick has revolved around Abdul Carter.

Many analysts who originally dissented have changed their picks to show the Penn State EDGE going first overall.

Bucky Brooks of NFL.com states that this would be the ideal pick for Tennessee, “if the Titans solve their quarterback issue in free agency.”

Ritchie Bradshaw of Sports Illustrated says he’s “not here to reinvent the wheel,” opting for the best talent on the board with the #1 pick, calling Carter “the best compared to the top players at the other positions.”

Potential Trade Backs

Four analysts have updated their mocks to include trade backs.

Connor Hughes of SNY and Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports both project drops back to #3 overall to take Travis Hunter, while the team at Bleacher Report shows Tennessee using the Giants' pick to take an available Carter.

The outlier comes from Barstool Sports’ Steven Cheah, who projects a drop to second overall to secure Carter, although this is entirely contingent on the Browns' desire to take Ward, which many analysts believe is overshadowed by their current needs on defense.

Outliers

The only selections in these 26 mocks that stray from either Ward or Carter are the three drafts that place Hunter in that top spot.

Two of which are unupdated post-Super Bowl mocks from Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com and Field Yates of ESPN, both citing Hunter’s one-in-a-million skillset as the primary reason not to pass on the Heisman trophy-winner.

The only updated mock taking Hunter belongs to Connor Hughes of SNY, with Hughes projecting a trade in which the Giants would jump up from the third pick to snag Ward.

That would leave the Browns open to select Carter.

With both of their higher value options off the board, the value generated from a trade for the first overall pick would make for a very lucrative deal, especially with a consolation prize like Hunter in the mix.

]]>
2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Who Will Giants Select at No. 3? https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2025-nfl-draft-giants-predictions-third-pick/ Mon, 21 Apr 2025 22:00:20 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=101121 Shedeur Sanders

The Daniel Jones era is over, and the Giants now must find the next face of their organization.

Will they select a quarterback at No. 3 overall in the draft, will they trade up to No. 1, or will they go with a top player at another position?

Let's examine mock draft results from around the industry to see what might happen.

2025 NFL Draft Predictions: New York Giants

Author NameAffiliationPick (#)
Brendan DonahueSharp Football AnalysisAbdul Carter (3)
Ryan McCrystalSharp Football AnalysisAbdul Carter (3)
Cynthia FrelundNFLCam Ward (3)
Lance ZierleinNFLTravis Hunter (3)
Chad ReuterNFLAbdul Carter (3)
Eric EdholmNFLAbdul Carter (3)
Bucky BrooksNFLTravis Hunter (3)
Daniel JeremiahNFLShedeur Sanders (3)
Dan ParrNFLTravis Hunter (3)
B/R NFL Scouting Dept.Bleacher ReportAbdul Carter (1)
Josh EdwardsCBS SportsAbdul Carter (3)
Richie BradshawSports IllustratedArmand Membou (3)
Michael Middlehurst-SchwartzUSA TodayShedeur Sanders (3)
----Pro Football FocusTravis Hunter (3)
Steven CheahBarstool SportsShedeur Sanders (3)
Vinny IyerThe Sporting NewsTravis Hunter (3)
Connor HughesSNYTravis Hunter (3)
Nick BaumgartnerNew York Times/The AthleticCam Ward (3)
Danny KellyThe RingerTravis Hunter (3)
Jason McIntyreFox SportsAbdul Carter (3)
Mike FanelliFantasy ProsAbdul Carter (3)
Field YatesESPNAbdul Carter (3)
Kyle DvorchakNBC SportsTravis Hunter (3)
Mike RennerCBS SportsAbdul Carter (3)
Ryan WilsonCBS SportsAbdul Carter (3)
Chris TrapassoCBS SportsAbdul Carter (3)

Results of 26 Mock Drafts:

  • Shedeur Sanders: 8
  • Cam Ward: 7
  • Travis Hunter: 6
  • Abdul Carter: 3
  • Armand Membou: 2

Current Prediction for the Giants at No. 3 Overall: Shedeur Sanders

Brendan Donahue, the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Ryan McCrystal, the #8 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Analysis

Josh Edwards (CBS), Ritchie Bradshaw (SI), PFF, Nick Baumgartner (NYT), Danny Kelly (The Ringer), Ryan Wilson (CBS), and Chris Trapasso (CBS) all switched away from quarterbacks in these updated mocks, but only Bradshaw cites the Jameis Winston signing as a reason for this revision.

Most of these predictions were made before the Russell Wilson signing, so expect changes in the next versions.

Potential Trade Ups

Three analysts have edited their picks to include a trade up to the first overall pick, and while Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports and Connor Hughes of SNY stuck with the consensus No. 1 in Cam Ward, the scouting team at Bleacher Report believes that the relationship New York has established with Sanders to this point will be enough for them to avoid the risk of losing him by the third pick and locking in the selection at #1.

Outliers

Ritchie Bradshaw of Sports Illustrated and Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports both altered their picks to Missouri OT Armand Membou despite Bradshaw projecting Ward’s availability at the third pick and both drafts leaving Sanders on the board.

While he did test as well as any offensive lineman on the board, Membou is still considered a stretch for third overall based on positional need.

While this move has the potential to help answer a problem New York has faced for years, it presents higher-than-usual risk considering the value of the pick and the talent remaining on the board.

]]>
2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Who Will Browns Select at No. 2? https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2025-nfl-draft-browns-predictions-second-pick/ Mon, 21 Apr 2025 22:00:02 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=101628 Abdul Carter

Stuck in the aftermath of the disastrous Deshaun Watson trade, the Browns could be headed toward a rebuild.

Will they look to start that process with a rookie quarterback, or will they look to add an elite talent at another position?

Let's examine mock draft results from around the industry to see what might happen.

2025 NFL Draft Predictions: Cleveland Browns

Author NameAffiliationPick (#)
Brendan DonahueSharp Football AnalysisTravis Hunter (2)
Ryan McCrystalSharp Football AnalysisTravis Hunter (2)
Cynthia FrelundNFLAbdul Carter (2)
Lance ZierleinNFLAbdul Carter (3)
Chad ReuterNFLTravis Hunter (2)
Eric EdholmNFLTravis Hunter (2)
Bucky BrooksNFLShedeur Sanders (2)
Daniel JeremiahNFLAbdul Carter (2)
Dan ParrNFLAbdul Carter (2)
B/R NFL Scouting Dept.Bleacher ReportTravis Hunter (2)
Josh EdwardsCBS SportsTravis Hunter (2)
Richie BradshawSports IllustratedAbdul Carter (2)
Michael Middlehurst-SchwartzUSA TodayTravis Hunter (2)
----Pro Football FocusMike Green (10 via CHI)
Steven CheahBarstool SportsAbdul Carter (2)
Vinny IyerThe Sporting NewsShedeur Sanders (2)
Connor HughesSNYAbdul Carter (2)
Nick BaumgartnerNew York Times/The AthleticTravis Hunter (2)
Danny KellyThe RingerCam Ward (2)
Jason McIntyreFox SportsShedeur Sanders (2)
Mike FanelliFantasyProsTravis Hunter (2)
Field YatesESPNTravis Hunter (2)
Kyle DvorchakNBC SportsAbdul Carter (2)
Mike RennerCBS SportsTravis Hunter (2)
Ryan WilsonCBS SportsTravis Hunter (2)
Chris TrapassoCBS SportsTravis Hunter (2)

Results of 26 Mock Drafts:

  • Abdul Carter: 14
  • Travis Hunter: 4
  • Cam Ward: 4
  • Shedeur Sanders: 4

Current Prediction for the Browns at No. 2 Overall: Abdul Carter

Brendan Donahue, the #2 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Ryan McCrystal, the #8 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

Analysis

While the updated mocks reflect two fewer selections in favor of Abdul Carter, the Penn State edge rusher remains the favorite to become a Cleveland Brown with the second overall pick.

After Myles Garrett’s contract was extended in early March, there was an increase in predictions for both Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders to head to Cleveland, with previous outliers such as Mason Graham and Kelvin Banks Jr. largely absent from the current conversation.

Potential Trade Ups

Only one mock (Steven Cheah of Barstool Sports) predicts that the Browns will trade away from their No. 2 pick, projecting a swap with Tennessee to gain the first overall pick.

This mostly has to do with Cleveland’s surplus of late-round picks and Tennessee’s comparative lack thereof, but the minimal separation between these picks makes this move unlikely.

If Cheah’s prediction is correct and the Titans do favor Carter with the first pick, Cleveland will still have enough options with #2 overall that a one-pick jump may not be worth the payout.

Outliers

Ward, Sanders, and Travis Hunter were each selected as the second overall pick in 4 separate mocks.

This buzz persists for several reasons.

Sharp Football’s Brendan Donahue cites Kevin Stefanski’s relationship with Pat Shurmur, who was Sanders’ offensive coordinator at Colorado, while Bucky Brooks of NFL.com references Stefanski’s desire to bounce back as a playcaller.

The point is that, as perfect of a fit as Abdul Carter would be on Cleveland’s defense, the overarching need for a trustworthy starting quarterback that has plagued this team for the better part of two decades remains.

]]>
NFL Super Bowl Lookahead Lines: Hypothetical Playoff Spreads https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-playoffs-lookahead-lines-hypothetical-betting-spread/ Sun, 26 Jan 2025 14:00:34 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=98292 Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts

The Conference Championship round has not even started, but sportsbooks have already posted lookahead lines for hypothetical Super Bowl matchups.

Let's look at all of the available lines before diving into some of the more interesting matchups.

Super Bowl Hypothetical Lookahead Lines

Hypothetical MatchupsFavoriteSpreadTotal
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia EaglesBills-1.5O/U 49.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia EaglesChiefs-1.5O/U 46.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Washington CommandersBills-4.5O/U 53.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington CommandersChiefs-5.5O/U 49.5

Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive FREE BETS from NFL expert Warren Sharp this weekend:


Bills @ Eagles (BUF -1.5)

If the Eagles can make it past their division rivals this weekend, they will see the same point spread regardless of their Super Bowl opponent. The lines for either a Bills or Chiefs matchup against Philadelphia both sit at -1.5 in favor of the AFC teams.

Buffalo’s scoring prowess gives them the leg up in terms of the higher total, and their lower money line (-120 compared to -125 for the Chiefs) presents a slightly higher-value payout. This line stands out mostly due to the disparity between these two AFC finalists, but we'll touch on that more later. 

Bills @ Commanders (BUF -4.5)

Of all the lines offered, this is the only total to break 50 with an O/U of 53.5. This is likely because Buffalo and Washington both rank among the top-five highest scoring teams of the 2024 regular season — the Bills at second with 525 and the Commanders in fifth with 485.

This game also features the second-widest spread and money line at -4.5 and -230 in favor of the Bills. The only matchup with more distant odds would be a Washington date with the Chiefs, who are favored by -5.5 with the money line set at -250.

This could speak to the oddsmakers’ lack of faith in the Commanders defense, particularly in goal-to-go scenarios.

The Bills have registered a score on 82.9% of drives ending inside the 10 while Washington allows scores from this position 75.0% of the time.

The predominant discrepancy in these odds is that Buffalo scores at a much higher rate than Washington or Kansas City.

The Chiefs score every 26.6 offensive plays on average. Washington finds the end zone every 20.3 plays, but the Bills blow them both out of the water with an average rate of 16.5 plays per TD. 

The total reflects this accurately, but one would think this also suggests the Commanders should face a higher spread against the Bills than the Chiefs, although it could just imply more faith in Kansas City’s stout defense.

Still, even a cornerback as talented as Trent McDuffie would have his hands full against this Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin connection, which accounted for 78 of Washington’s total points on the season.

Chiefs @ Eagles (KC – 1.5)

The total of 46.5 may seem low, but it is important to remember that Kansas City entered the playoffs with the fourth-fewest points scored of any qualifying team ahead of only the Steelers, Texans, and Rams, all of whom have been eliminated from contention.

Despite these teams both ranking in the top 10 of offensive EPA, the under is not an entirely unsafe bet here.

After all, the Chiefs only broke 30 points twice this season: once against the Panthers, who generated the lowest rate of pressure in the league, and once against a Tampa Bay team that posted the throw-lowest defensive EPA per play of all playoff teams (-0.01 ahead of only the Rams and Commanders).

]]>
Sean McVay Needs to Adjust His Game Plan Against the Eagles https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/rams-eagles-analysis-divisional-round-2024/ Sat, 18 Jan 2025 15:39:58 +0000 https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/?p=98894 Matthew Stafford throws a pass

Over the last eight years, we’ve witnessed the meteoric rise of Sean McVay.

He’s brought 4 NFC West titles, a pair of NFC Championships, and a Lombardi Trophy back to Inglewood so far, and his legacy is still being written today.

McVay’s most recent playoff victory came just this week when his Rams put the backsliding Minnesota Vikings' season to rest.

This particular win, however, looked a little different than what we typically see from McVay.

Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive FREE BETS from NFL expert Warren Sharp this weekend:


The Rams came out of the gate flying on Monday night thanks to a flip of McVay’s pre-determined first drive script.

Many of the Rams’ initial drives this season have featured a run-heavy offense, leaning on Kyren Williams to do most of the heavy lifting.

Sunday’s game opened instead with Matthew Stafford taking multiple deep shots downfield, moving 54 yards in just 5 plays, and putting Kevin O’Connell and company on their heels quickly.

Much of this early-drive success can be attributed to an increase in the usage of tight ends as receiving threats, namely Tyler Higbee, whose final stat line of 5 catches for 58 yards led Los Angeles despite him leaving the game early.

His long of 23, which came on the game’s third play, was a major factor in the success of LA’s opening drive.

Williams secured a five-yard reception over the middle to give the Rams the opening score, and Los Angeles controlled momentum from there.

As the game went final with a score of 27-9, the eyes of Rams Nation turned from their multiple-score rout of one of the league's top defenses to the looming threat of what lies ahead in the Divisional Round.

Enter the Philadelphia Eagles, who have strung together an impressive season of their own under Nick Sirianni.

Questions surrounded Sirianni’s job security following last year’s postseason loss to the Buccaneers, Philly’s sixth loss in their last seven games at the time.

The ship has turned around dramatically since then.

The City of Brotherly Love finished the 2024 regular season with a 14-3 record, in great part thanks to the offseason acquisition of star running back Saquon Barkley and a suffocating secondary bolstered by a talented draft class.

So the question is simple. What is McVay’s plan for surviving this nigh-unbeatable Eagles team?

We can expect McVay’s strategy in the Divisional Round to look vastly different from what we saw in the Wild Card.

This is largely due to the disparities between the way the Eagles play defense compared to the Vikings.

Minnesota led the league with a blitz rate of 38.6%.

The Rams countered this with an aggressive passing attack. Stafford went 14 of 18 for 178 yards and a pair of scores on plays against the blitz Monday night.

The Eagles, however, will not be blitzing at nearly as high of a rate considering they come into this game with the lowest blitz rate of any playoff team (16.2%), ahead of only the Jacksonville Jaguars for the league-low overall.

One would think this wouldn’t be very conducive to putting the heat on opposing quarterbacks, but Philly actually boasts a higher rate of pressure than the Vikings, even without resorting to the blitz.

The Eagles pressured quarterbacks on 36.8% of dropbacks compared to Minnesota’s 35.7% rate despite a 22.4% lower blitz rate, which means this pressure is coming naturally.

The Rams will have to account for this heading into Sunday’s game.

McVay's strategy of beating the pass rush with a high frequency of passing plays could prove risky. The Eagles have allowed the fewest passing yards per game across the entire NFL.

It seems that if McVay hopes to lead his team back to the promised land, he may need to pull a few more rabbits out of his hat on the way there.

]]>