{"id":109959,"date":"2025-09-07T07:30:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-07T11:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=109959"},"modified":"2025-09-07T08:31:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T12:31:14","slug":"nfl-best-bets-picks-predictions-player-prop-over-under-today-week-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-bets-picks-predictions-player-prop-over-under-today-week-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Well, we\u2019re finally here!<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, and it all gets underway on Thursday when the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll be looking at three props this week: George Pickens\u2019 touchdown scoring potential, Travis Kelce's reception total, and Aaron Jones\u2019 pass-catching ability.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Week 1 can always come with a bit of chaos, but let\u2019s try to parse through it all.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 1 Prediction: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (+123)<\/h2>\n<p>Yes, there are narratives out there about <strong>Travis<\/strong> <strong>Kelce<\/strong>\u2019s age, but I think he could be for a solid season debut against the Chargers.<\/p>\n<p>At +123 on his over at 5.5 receptions, we\u2019ve got to take a chance.<\/p>\n<p>The Chiefs' passing attack isn\u2019t quite what it used to be, but the team still averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game last season (ninth in the league).<\/p>\n<p>In Week 1, the Chiefs will have wide receiver <strong>Xavier<\/strong> <strong>Worthy<\/strong> and <strong>Hollywood<\/strong> <strong>Brown<\/strong> in the lineup, but fellow wide receiver <strong>Rashee<\/strong> <strong>Rice<\/strong> will be out for six games as he serves his suspension.<\/p>\n<p>Kelce got off to a slow start in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Over the first three games, these were his game logs:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Week 1: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 34 yards, 0 touchdowns.<\/li>\n<li>Week 2: 3 targets, 1 reception, 5 yards, 0 touchdowns.<\/li>\n<li>Week 3: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 touchdowns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These were all games in which Kelce was co-existing with Rice.<\/p>\n<p>In Week 4, the Chiefs took on the Chargers, and Rice suffered a knee injury.<\/p>\n<p>With him out, Kelce caught 7 passes on 9 targets for 89 yards.<\/p>\n<p>Against the Chargers later in the season, he caught 5 passes on 6 targets for 45 yards.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, Kelce was targeted on 24.4% of his routes without Rice on the field last season.<\/p>\n<p>That number was 16.2% of his routes when Rice was on the field, albeit in a small sample.<\/p>\n<p>For another data point, opposing tight ends averaged 5.39 receptions per game against the Chargers.<\/p>\n<p>So, while Brown is in the lineup, I don\u2019t believe he\u2019ll demand the same level of targets Rice would have.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also early in the season before wear and tear hits Kelce.<\/p>\n<p>Expect a fairly strong start to the season for Kelce with Rice out, and it begins in Week 1.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>He has hit on 57% of his lifetime college recommendations, including 73% of his top selections.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor was up\u00a0<strong>$15,636<\/strong>\u00a0following Warren\u2019s picks for both college and the NFL last season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting-fantasy-props-combo-packages\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><strong>Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Week 1 Prediction: Aaron Jones Over 2.5 Receptions (-112)<\/h2>\n<p>In 2024, Jones saw 62 targets and caught 51 passes for 408 yards and 2 touchdowns.<\/p>\n<p>Among all running backs, he was ninth in targets, tied for seventh in receptions, and seventh in yards.<\/p>\n<p>In Week 1, Jones will take on the Chicago Bears.<\/p>\n<p>In Week 12 last season, he caught 3 passes against them, and in Week 15, he had 2 &#8212; the Bears did change defensive coordinators this offseason.<\/p>\n<p>I understand there could be concern with Jones as a whole with the acquisition of former San Francisco 49ers running back <strong>Jordan<\/strong> <strong>Mason<\/strong> and his success with them last season during <strong>Christian McCaffrey<\/strong>\u2019s absence, but he\u2019s not someone who was really ever involved in the passing game.<\/p>\n<p>He finished with more than 1 reception in just three games in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>The Vikings' receiving options are a bit limited, too, with <strong>Jordan<\/strong> <strong>Addison<\/strong> suspended for three games.<\/p>\n<p>They still have <strong>Justin<\/strong> <strong>Jefferson<\/strong>, <strong>T.J. Hockenson<\/strong>, and the recently traded for <strong>Adam<\/strong> <strong>Thielen<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This will be the first NFL start of Vikings quarterback <strong>J.J. McCarthy<\/strong>\u2019s career, so there could be something to be said about him \u201chitting singles and doubles,\u201d with easy completions to get into a rhythm.<\/p>\n<p>In his final season at Michigan in college, McCarthy completed 82% of his passes 0-9 yards downfield.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, 54.9% of his attempts were either behind the line of scrimmage or 0-9 yards downfield.<\/p>\n<p>With Jones being a running back, it shouldn\u2019t come as a surprise, but nearly 90% of his catches came in those areas of the field.<\/p>\n<p>On top of that, Jones caught 3 passes or more in 10 of 17 games last season.<\/p>\n<p>In the game in which he caught 2 passes against the Bears, the Vikings won the game 30-12.<\/p>\n<p>Now, the Vikings are just 1.5-point favorites, so I\u2019d expect a much closer game that\u2019ll allow for more potential reception opportunities for Jones, especially with a top receiver out due to suspension.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 1 Prediction: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+220)<\/h2>\n<p>With the Cowboys trading away edge rusher <strong>Micah<\/strong> <strong>Parsons<\/strong>, I believe, even further, that they\u2019ll be trailing early and often in this game.<\/p>\n<p>The Cowboys are 7.5-point underdogs, which bodes well for a game script in which <strong>Dak<\/strong> <strong>Prescott<\/strong> will have to throw early and often, and his new wide receiver, <strong>George<\/strong> <strong>Pickens<\/strong>, will benefit.<\/p>\n<p>These two players have skill sets that align quite well.<\/p>\n<p>In 2024, through just eight games, 11.9% of Prescott\u2019s attempts went for 20-plus yards downfield.<\/p>\n<p>He had 4 touchdown passes and 4 drops on those attempts.<\/p>\n<p>Going back to 2023, across 17 games, Prescott tossed 10 touchdowns and threw for 1,024 yards on passes of 20-plus yards downfield.<\/p>\n<p>He was fifth in the NFL in pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield with 73.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s important to consider that, before getting Pickens, he didn\u2019t really have a player who was a consistent downfield presence.<\/p>\n<p>For context, Cowboys wide receiver <strong>CeeDee<\/strong> <strong>Lamb<\/strong> saw 11.6% of his targets go 20-plus yards downfield in 2024 and 15.6% in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Pickens was at 29% in 2024 and 21.2% in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Pickens has a quarterback who wants to throw deep and has had success, and Prescott has a guy who can get downfield and make something happen.<\/p>\n<p>A touchdown seems more than feasible in this matchup.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, we\u2019re finally here! It\u2019s Week 1 of the 2025  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":109962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 1","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player prop predictions for Week 1. Player prop bets including George Pickens, Travis Kelce, & Aaron Jones.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-109959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-300x229.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-768x585.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-694x694.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109959"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109959\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":110525,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109959\/revisions\/110525"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}