Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n
Week 3 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa 1+ Interceptions (-156)<\/h2>\n
Given the odds of -156 and an implied probability of 60.94%, this may not be the most \u201cunder the radar\u201d prop bet, but the goal when betting is to place a winning bet.<\/p>\n
Therefore, picking Tagovailoa to have at least 1 interception is the right move.<\/p>\n
This season, quarterbacks facing the Bills have played against their Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 4 packages on 48 of their 53 dropbacks (90.6%).<\/p>\n
Here are the opposing quarterbacks' stats against each of these:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Cover 1: 11 dropbacks, 6 completions, 10 attempts, 60% completion rate, 99 passing yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions.<\/li>\n
- Cover 2: 12 dropbacks, 3 completions, 7 attempts, 42.9% completion rate, -5 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions.<\/li>\n
- Cover 3: 16 dropbacks, 8 completions, 13 pass attempts, 61.5% completion rate, 85 passing yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions.<\/li>\n
- Cover 4: 9 dropbacks, 5 completions, 8 attempts, 62.5% completion rate, 60 passing yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
This is important because, as you can see, the Bills run a mix of coverages.<\/p>\n
Now, how has Tagovailoa done against those same coverages this season?<\/p>\n
- \n
- Cover 1: 7 dropbacks, 2 completions, 6 attempts, 33.3% completion rate, 74 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions.<\/li>\n
- Cover-2: 24 dropbacks, 16 completions, 18 attempts, 88.9% completion rate, 157 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions.<\/li>\n
- Cover-3: 12 dropbacks, 7 completions, 11 pass attempts, 63.6% completion rate, 92 passing yards, no touchdowns, 2 interceptions.<\/li>\n
- Cover-4: 11 dropbacks, 7 completions, 10 attempts, 70% completion rate, 64 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
So, all three of Tagovailoa\u2019s interceptions this season have come against either Cover 3 or Cover 4.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s had 64 total dropbacks, and 23 of them (36%) have been against those coverages.<\/p>\n
Collectively, Tagovailoa has completed 14 of 21 passes on 23 droopbacks for 160 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions against Cover 3 and Cover 4.<\/p>\n
Not only that, but against zone coverage in general, 9.1% of Tagovailoa\u2019s passes have been off-target, and that doesn\u2019t count spikes or throwaway passes.<\/p>\n
The Bills run Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 47.2% of their defensive plays.<\/p>\n
Overall, this season, Tagovailoa has 5 turnover-worthy plays.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s been pressured on 27.3% of his dropbacks and has completed 6 of 10 passes for 81 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 turnover-worthy plays.<\/p>\n
We also have to take into account that offensive lineman Austin<\/strong> Jackson<\/strong> has been placed on injured reserve, and another offensive lineman, Aaron<\/strong> Brewer<\/strong>, has been limited in practice this week.<\/p>\n
Therefore, his projected starting five offensive linemen are Patrick<\/strong> Paul<\/strong>, Brewer (if he suits up), Jonah Savaiinaea<\/strong>, Kion Smith<\/strong>, and Larry Borom<\/strong>.<\/p>\n
Combined, they\u2019ve allowed 15 pressures and 4 sacks.<\/p>\n
Finally, over his last three games against the Bills, Tagovailoa has thrown 5 interceptions with multiple interceptions in two of those three games.<\/p>\n
To summarize: Tagovailoa has thrown all of his interceptions this season against coverages that the Bills play nearly half the time, he has a recent history of interceptions against the Bills, his offensive line is dreadful, and, due to the 12.5-point spread, he\u2019ll likely need to throw, allowing for more interception opportunities.<\/p>\n
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