According to Pro Football Reference, the Chargers are 10th in yards per play (5.5) and tied for 14th in scoring offense (23.3 points per game).<\/p>\n
Their underlying data is even better.<\/p>\n
According to Sumer Sports, the Chargers are tied for ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.05) and eighth in success rate (45.18%).<\/p>\n
Furthermore, the offense is flowing through Herbert. Per nfelo, the Chargers have an NFL-high 8.8% pass rate over expectations (PROE) this season.<\/p>\n
Herbert is rewarding head coach Jim<\/strong> Harbaugh<\/strong> and offensive coordinator Greg<\/strong> Roman<\/strong> for their faith in him.<\/p>\n Herbert is fifth in EPA this season.<\/p>\n In addition, among 34 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks this year, Herbert has Pro Football Focus\u2019s (PFF\u2019s) eighth-highest passing grade.<\/p>\n Herbert and the Chargers shouldn\u2019t find the sledding tough against the Giants.<\/p>\n Big Blue is tied for the ninth-most yards per play (5.7) allowed this year, and they\u2019ve permitted the ninth-most points per game (27.7).<\/p>\n The advanced metrics for the G-Men\u2019s defense are even more damning.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve allowed the third-most EPA per play (0.13) and the fourth-highest success rate (47.91%).<\/p>\n The Chargers should have no problem marching up and down the field against New York\u2019s defense.<\/p>\n Can the Giants push back enough for the Chargers to clear 24.5 points this week? They might be able to.<\/p>\n Yet, even if the Giants don\u2019t put up much of a fight, they\u2019ll likely at least do it quickly after promoting rookie Jaxson<\/strong> Dart<\/strong> to starting quarterback duties.<\/p>\n Josh Norris and Hayden Winks from Underdog Fantasy discussed the Giants playing more aggressively and faster with Dart in the preseason on their most recent Stats versus Film episode<\/a>.<\/p>\n If Brian<\/strong> Daboll<\/strong> and Mike Kafka<\/strong> call a fast and aggressive offense with Dart at the helm, there are multiple positive avenues for the Chargers to score points.<\/p>\n First, Dart can push them by scoring points, forcing the Chargers to keep their foot on the accelerator.<\/p>\n Second, he could turn the ball over on downs quickly. Therefore, the Giants wouldn\u2019t use a lot of clock before giving the ball back to the Chargers.<\/p>\n Third, a rookie quarterback playing fast and aggressively in his first professional start could turn the ball over against Jesse Minter<\/strong>\u2019s defense, potentially awarding the Chargers short fields and more quick-scoring opportunities.<\/p>\n Any of those three outcomes would help the Chargers exceed 24.5 points.<\/p>\n I expect Los Angeles to go over their team total, and the -112 line for over 24.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook is the best value across sportsbooks since it is 1 point lower than at some other sites.<\/p>\n Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available<\/strong><\/p>\n
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