{"id":112212,"date":"2025-09-28T07:45:56","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T11:45:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=112212"},"modified":"2025-09-28T08:28:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-28T12:28:49","slug":"nfl-best-bets-picks-predictions-player-prop-over-under-today-week-4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-bets-picks-predictions-player-prop-over-under-today-week-4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4"},"content":{"rendered":"

Don\u2019t look now, but we\u2019re officially 16.66% through the 2025 NFL season.<\/p>\n

Week 4 kicks off with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Seattle Seahawks.<\/p>\n

This is the final slate before bye weeks kick in, and we also have a game that\u2019ll be played in Ireland.<\/p>\n

Continue reading below to see my best props for this week, including Chris<\/strong> Olave<\/strong>, Jordan<\/strong> Love<\/strong>, and Bo<\/strong> Nix<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Week 4 Prediction: Chris Olave 6+ Receptions (-125)<\/h2>\n

While the Saints offense has been one of the most uninspiring and boring in the NFL, Olave is receiving a lot of work.<\/p>\n

Through three weeks, he boasts a 31.9% target share and has 37 targets.<\/p>\n

Now he\u2019s on the road against the Buffalo Bills, and the Saints are underdogs by more than two touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Those 37 targets lead the NFL by two, ahead of Puka<\/strong> Nacua<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s also run 125 routes, which is tied for second-most in the NFL.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s seen double-digit targets in every game this year.<\/p>\n

In his first road game in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks, he caught 10 passes on 14 targets.<\/p>\n

Now, he\u2019ll be taking on a Bills defense that deploys Cover 3 more than any other coverage, running it about 29.5% of the time.<\/p>\n

12 of Olave\u2019s 23 catches have come against Cover 3 along with 14 of his 37 targets.<\/p>\n

Additionally, not only is Olave receiving a monstrous target share, but he runs a route on 94.7% of his team\u2019s dropbacks.<\/p>\n

The Saints should have to throw a lot as massive underdogs, Olave has a high target share, and he\u2019s met this mark in every game.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s in an excellent position to pile up a bunch of catches with the Saints behind early and often.<\/p>\n

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Week 4 Prediction: Jordan Love Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-112)<\/h2>\n

While the Packers and Love are coming off an abysmal outing in Week 3 on the road against the Cleveland Browns, they\u2019re sizable road favourites against a squishy Dallas Cowboys defense.<\/p>\n

Over the last two weeks, the Cowboys defense has allowed 450 passing yards to Russell<\/strong> Wilson<\/strong> and 298 passing yards in Week 3 to Caleb<\/strong> Williams<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Looking over the Cowboys\u2019 coverages, they mostly play Cover 2 and Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Combined, they run these coverages on about 71% of opposing dropbacks.<\/p>\n

Against both of those coverages, Love is 28 of 34 (82.4%) for 395 yards (11.6 yards per attempt) and has 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s only gone one 232 yards once this season, but again, he was up against a great Browns defense in Week 3.<\/p>\n

Love will also be facing a Matt Eberflus<\/strong>-coached defense for the second time in his career.<\/p>\n

He last played an Eberflus defense on January 7, 2024.<\/p>\n

In that game, Love completed 27 of 32 passes (84.4%) for 316 yards and 2 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

To go further, against Cover 2 and Cover 3 specifically, he was 16 of 20 for 172 yards.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s in a great spot to bounce back after a bad outing against Cleveland.<\/p>\n

The Dallas pass defense is the worst in the NFL, surrendering 288 per game.<\/p>\n

Week 4 Prediction: Bo Nix Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-112)<\/h2>\n

I can understand that the immediate, knee-jerk inclination whenever you\u2019re considering a prop against the Cincinnati Bengals is to take the over, but here, I\u2019m taking the under on Nix\u2019s passing yards.<\/p>\n

So far this season, this is what Nix\u2019s passing yardage logs look like:<\/p>\n