{"id":112490,"date":"2025-10-01T09:04:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T13:04:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=112490"},"modified":"2025-10-01T17:59:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T21:59:53","slug":"nfl-week-4-recap-chiefs-offense-third-down-struggles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/nfl-week-4-recap-chiefs-offense-third-down-struggles\/","title":{"rendered":"Chiefs&#8217; Third Down Woes: Can They Turn Things Around?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Chiefs offense is converting just 39% of third downs this year.<\/p>\n<p>That ranks #16 in the NFL.<\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s despite averaging just 6.6 yards to go to first down, the #6 shortest distance to go.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, the Chiefs averaged 6.5 yards to go but converted 49% of their third downs, the #2 best rate in the NFL.<\/p>\n<div class=\"video-shortcode\"><iframe title=\"Why the Chiefs Are Struggling on Third Down | NFL Week 4 Recap\" width=\"1100\" height=\"619\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9VQp5t5o6ZA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s been costing them, particularly in the red zone.<\/p>\n<p>They are converting just 30% of third downs in the red zone.<\/p>\n<p>That ranks #10 worst in the NFL.<\/p>\n<p>They are averaging -0.03 EPA per play on third downs in FG range, which ranks #20.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, they averaged +0.49 EPA per play on these very plays, which ranked #3 in the NFL.<\/p>\n<p>These are 4-point plays, from attempting a field goal to keeping a drive alive to score a touchdown.<\/p>\n<p>We predicted their rates from 2025 would not be replicated.<\/p>\n<p>But we still look at this offense, this quarterback, and this coach, and know that they should be better than ranking #10 worst in third down conversion rates in the red zone.<\/p>\n<p>When that swings back positively in their favor, this team will score more points.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Chiefs offense is converting just 39% of third downs  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Chiefs' Third Down Woes: Can They Turn Things Around?","_seopress_titles_desc":"The Chiefs' offense has fallen from #2 to #16 in 3rd down conversions, especially in the red zone. We analyze the surprising slump and why a turnaround is coming.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-112490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-669x446.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-320x213.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-700x467.jpg","recent-works-thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-66x44.jpg","fusion-200":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-200x133.jpg","fusion-400":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-400x267.jpg","fusion-600":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-600x400.jpg","fusion-800":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-800x534.jpg","portfolio-full":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-940x627.jpg","portfolio-one":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-540x360.jpg","portfolio-two":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-460x307.jpg","portfolio-three":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-300x200.jpg","portfolio-five":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-177x118.jpg","profile_24":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-24x24.jpg","profile_48":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-48x48.jpg","profile_96":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-96x96.jpg","profile_150":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-150x150.jpg","profile_300":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Patrick-Mahomes-Week-11-2024-300x300.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112490"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":112494,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112490\/revisions\/112494"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/medi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