I\u2019m quite comfortable betting and suggesting readers bet on Big Blue\u2019s defense keeping the Saints under 21.5 points.<\/p>\n
According to Pro Football Reference, the Giants are tied for the sixth-most yards allowed per play (5.7) this season, and their defense has permitted the 10th-most points per game (25.3).<\/p>\n
Those aren\u2019t eye-catching numbers, but facing Jayden<\/strong> Daniels<\/strong> and Dak Prescott<\/strong> on the road in the first two weeks before hosting Patrick<\/strong> Mahomes<\/strong> and Justin Herbert<\/strong> in the following two weeks is a rather brutal runout.<\/p>\n Their surface-level defensive stats were also significantly impacted by coughing up 40 points and 478 yards of offense to the Cowboys in an overtime shootout loss.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve since buckled down, holding the Chiefs and Chargers to 306 and 338 yards and 22 and 18 points, respectively.<\/p>\n Allowing 21 points to the Commanders in Week 1 wasn\u2019t damning, either.<\/p>\n The G-Men have their softest matchup of the year, coming off a nifty defensive showing at home against the Chargers.<\/p>\n Moreover, there\u2019s one specific matchup that I expect to cause the New Orleans offense to unravel.<\/p>\n Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks the Saints 21st in pass blocking this season.<\/p>\n Conversely, they grade the Giants as the fifth-best in pass rushing.<\/p>\n New York revved up their pass rush against the Chargers last week. Per PFF, Herbert was under pressure on 20 of his 44 dropbacks (45.5%) last week.<\/p>\n PFF also credits Spencer<\/strong> Rattler<\/strong> with the sixth-most dropbacks under pressure (60) this year.<\/p>\n Among 36 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks under pressure this year, Rattler is their 20th-graded passer and 25th in yards per attempt (4.7).<\/p>\n Rattler also hasn\u2019t provided any reason to believe he can hang over 21.5 points against a competent defense.<\/p>\n The 27 points the Saints scored against the Buccaneers in Week 6 last season are the most they\u2019ve scored in Rattler\u2019s 10 career starts, and it\u2019s the only instance of them exceeding 21.5 points.<\/p>\n They also scored 21 points at home against the 49ers in Week 2 this year, but those are the only instances of the Saints clearing 20 points in Rattler\u2019s starts.<\/p>\n On the flip side, the Giants might chew up clock on the ground.<\/p>\n According to RotoViz\u2019s pace app, the Giants had a 60% situation-neutral rush rate last week, even incorporating Dart\u2019s rushing ability in their play-calling.<\/p>\n Still, New York\u2019s play-calling tendencies in Dart\u2019s first start are the cherry on top for betting against Rattler leading the Saints to over 21.5 points this week.<\/p>\n The G-Men should get in his grill, and I wouldn\u2019t count on Rattler bucking his trend of falling short of 21.5 points in this week\u2019s contest.<\/p>\n\t
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