{"id":113408,"date":"2025-10-12T08:00:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T12:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=113408"},"modified":"2025-10-12T09:13:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-12T13:13:07","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-6-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-6-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 6"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Week 6 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the New York Giants host the Philadelphia Eagles.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 6, starting with a player in that Thursday night game.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Week 6 Prediction: Cam Skattebo Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-112)<\/h2>\n<p>The Giants are hosting the Eagles on a short week, and in that game, I\u2019m taking the under on Skattebo\u2019s rushing yards at a line of 49.5 in a game where the Giants are 7-point underdogs.<\/p>\n<p>So far this season, Skattebo is averaging 48 rushing yards per game and averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.<\/p>\n<p>Heading into this game, Skattebo will also have more competition for carries as <strong>Tyrone Tracy Jr<\/strong>. is back in the lineup.<\/p>\n<p>Skattebo and Tracy were in a near 50-50 timeshare before Tracy's injury.<\/p>\n<p>Skattebo got 43.4% of the carries, and Tracy got 41.5% of them.<\/p>\n<p>In those games, Skattebo averaged 7.6 carries per game, which included 10 in Week 3 when Tracy got injured.<\/p>\n<p>In the two weeks following his injury, Skattebo posted the following stat totals:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Week 4: 25 carries for 79 yards (3.2 yards per carry).<\/li>\n<li>Week 5: 15 carries for 59 yards (3.9 yards per carry).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Across those two games, he averaged 20 carries for 69 yards (2.9 yards per carry).<\/p>\n<p>Yeah, not exactly efficient.<\/p>\n<p>However, he did get 75.5% of the running back carries compared to <strong>Devin Singletary<\/strong>, who got just 24.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Going further into his production during Tracy's absence, only 2.5% of his carries went for 10 yards or more.<\/p>\n<p>This is important because the likelihood of him busting a longer run to help into this line is minimal.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, 22 of his 40 carries went between a three-yard loss and a three-yard gain.<\/p>\n<p>More than 50% of his carries were for minimal gains.<\/p>\n<p>Something else that\u2019s important is how much work he got when the team was trailing.<\/p>\n<p>Considering the Giants are 7-point underdogs, that could be early and often.<\/p>\n<p>In Weeks 4 and 5, Skattebo got just 8 carries when the Giants were trailing by a point or more.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, when down by seven points or more, he had just 2 carries.<\/p>\n<p>So, not only is Skattebo highly inefficient, but the running back he was in a near 50-50 timeshare with is back, and when the team is losing, he\u2019s not getting a bunch of action.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll take the under.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Week 6 Prediction: Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (+113)<\/h2>\n<p>In Week 6, the New York Jets and Denver Broncos will square off in London.<\/p>\n<p>In that game, I\u2019m taking Wilson to have six catches or more.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, any time you can get \u201c+\u201d odds, that\u2019s going to make a wager more appealing, but this is one to feel confident in.<\/p>\n<p>The Jets will be without wide receiver <strong>Allen<\/strong> <strong>Lazard<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Without him on the field, Wilson has a 36% target share.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, without Lazard, Wilson runs a route on 99.2% of his quarterback's dropbacks.<\/p>\n<p>With such a massive target share, Wilson has caught 6 passes or more in four of five games.<\/p>\n<p>That includes each of his last three, and quarterback <strong>Justin<\/strong> <strong>Fields<\/strong> was throwing him passes in two of those.<\/p>\n<p>The Broncos defense primarily plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.<\/p>\n<p>These make up about 55.8% of the coverage opposing quarterbacks see against them.<\/p>\n<p>Against Cover 1 and Cover 3 this season, Wilson has caught 13 passes, which is close to 40% of his receptions this season (33).<\/p>\n<p>Going further, Wilson runs hitches (41) and out routes (32) more than anything else.<\/p>\n<p>This is important because against those two routes, the Broncos have allowed 35 completions on 43 attempts (81.4%).<\/p>\n<p>That said, any time you examine a game against the Broncos, especially involving a team\u2019s No. 1 wide receiver, you have to account for Broncos cornerback <strong>Patrick Surtain II<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Looking back at the Jets and Broncos game last season, there were some obvious differences: the Jets had <strong>Aaron<\/strong> <strong>Rodgers<\/strong> at quarterback, for one, but that was also a terrible game weather-wise.<\/p>\n<p>The Broncos won 10-9.<\/p>\n<p>In that game, Wilson had 5 catches with 3 coming against Surtain.<\/p>\n<p>Surtain himself has never allowed 6 catches to any single receiver in his entire career.<\/p>\n<p>However, as we saw last season, Surtain is, of course, most often assigned to the No. 1 target, but Wilson will get matchups against other Broncos defenders.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the Jets are 7.5-point underdogs, which is the perfect game script for throwing the ball frequently.<\/p>\n<p>No, Fields isn\u2019t exactly the greatest passer in the world, but get this: Fields\u2019 best game as a passer came in Week 4 of the 2023 season against the Broncos.<\/p>\n<p>He completed 28 of 35 passes for 335 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception.<\/p>\n<p>This will be a difficult matchup for Wilson, given the target share volume and the Jets being sizable underdogs.<\/p>\n<p>I think Wilson will get ample targets and reach the 6-reception mark.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week 6 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":113412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 6","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season, including Cam Skattebo and Garrett Wilson.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-113408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Cam-Skattebo-Week-6-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113408"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113408\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":113413,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113408\/revisions\/113413"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}