{"id":114110,"date":"2025-10-17T12:00:44","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T16:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=114110"},"modified":"2025-10-17T12:22:30","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T16:22:30","slug":"best-bet-utah-byu-betting-picks-week-8-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-utah-byu-betting-picks-week-8-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Utah vs. BYU: Week 8 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s check out the Holy War, as BYU and Utah each enter this game in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2009.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Utah vs. BYU, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah -3.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Utah at BYU Best Bet Prediction:<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This could be the moment BYU is exposed after going undefeated against the 84th-ranked strength of schedule \u4e00<\/span><b> bet on Utah to cover the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Utah vs. BYU, best line: Utah -3<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Utah -3.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Utah is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As has always been the case under<\/span><b> Kyle Whittingham<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Utah features a run-heavy offense with first-year coordinator<\/span><b> Jason Beck<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but it\u2019s a different scheme than we\u2019ve seen from the Utes in recent years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whittingham finally moved on from former coordinator <\/span><b>Andy Ludwig<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s outdated scheme in favor of Beck\u2019s more creative, fast-paced offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The most notable difference has been the pace at which Utah plays under Beck.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2024, the Utes ranked 126th in pace of play, but they have jumped to 44th this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The other noticeable change has been the use of quarterback <\/span><b>Devon Dampier<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the run game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dampier has already carried the ball 40 times on designed runs, per <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the past decade, the only Utah quarterback with more designed runs than Dampier was <\/span><b>Tyler Huntley<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in 2018, and that was only 47, a number that Dampier could surpass on Saturday.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Including all types of rush attempts (except sacks), Dampier is averaging 10.3 carries for 65.5 yards per game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU\u2019s defense has faced some athletic quarterbacks this year, most notably Colorado\u2019s <\/span><b>Kaidon Salter<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and West Virginia's <\/span><b>Khalil Wilkins<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Cougars contained Wilkins relatively well (23 carries for 89 yards), but that was the first career start for the redshirt freshman.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Salter gave BYU problems, picking up 84 yards on 14 carries, six of which produced first downs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When Dampier isn't carrying the rock, running backs <\/span><b>Wayshawn Parker<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>NaQuari Rogers <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">are sharing the workload in a productive backfield.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It should be a good battle in the trenches, however, based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah: ranked eighth in yards before contact\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU: ranked ninth in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for Utah, which primarily runs the ball from heavy formations that create stacked boxes, BYU has not defended the power run game as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out BYU\u2019s run defense by box type:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stacked box: 4.4 yards per attempt, ranked 70th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Light box: 3.7 yards per attempt, ranked 10th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another factor in the run game that potentially swings this matchup in Utah\u2019s favor is BYU\u2019s issues reacting to pre-snap motion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah uses motion on 44% of handoffs while gaining 6.3 yards per attempt on those plays (ranked 24th), per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That trend should worry the Cougars, who are allowing 6.0 yards per attempt on run plays with motion, ranked 107th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arizona successfully exploited this weakness last week, gaining 124 yards on 18 carries with motion before falling to the Cougars in double overtime.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As for the passing game, this is where Utah struggles.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In an early-season loss to Texas Tech, the Utes were competitive for three quarters \u4e00 Utah trailed only 13-10 early in the fourth quarter.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, once Texas Tech stretched the lead to double digits, it quickly snowballed on the Utes due to Dampier\u2019s inability to throw downfield, resulting in a somewhat misleading 34-10 final score.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dampier simply doesn\u2019t have the arm to throw downfield, which puts the Utes in a tough spot when they need to be more aggressive.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws 15 or more yards downfield, Dampier is completing just 24% of his throws, ranked 132nd in the country.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most of the incompletions are Dampier\u2019s fault, as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">His catchable pass rate at that depth (48%) ranks 133rd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So long as Utah can control the game on the ground, this shouldn\u2019t be an issue, but if BYU pulls ahead at any point, the Utes might be in trouble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>When BYU is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU traditionally leans on the run game under coordinator <\/span><b>Aaron Roderick<\/b>, <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and this year is no different.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, the Cougars throw the ball at a rate 6.4% below expected, the second-lowest rate in the Big 12.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although you might associate BYU with the power run game, that hasn\u2019t been the case this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU running backs are only taking the ball between the tackles on 29% of their carries, the nation\u2019s ninth-lowest rate, per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The strategy has worked moderately well, but Utah is likely up for the challenge based on these outside-the-tackles rushing numbers:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU: 5.5 yards per attempt, ranked 55th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah: 4.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 38th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If we look at the run game as a whole, through the lens of opponent-adjusted data, it tells a similar story with Utah coming out on top:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU: ranked 44th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah: ranked 28th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Utah gains a lead and BYU is forced to lean on quarterback <\/span><b>Bear Bachmeier<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and the passing attack, that is where the Utes gain a clear advantage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for BYU, the pass protection battle looks relatively even, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU: ranked 19th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah: ranked 13th in pressure rate generated.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, BYU\u2019s lack of a downfield passing attack is where the offense is severely lacking.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, the Cougars are attempting 6.2 attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 74th, while completing just 32% of those throws, ranked 115th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah\u2019s defense is allowing a 28% completion rate at that depth, the nation\u2019s ninth-lowest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite those numbers, BYU does have some sliver of hope in the passing game, as the Utes will be down to a third-stringer at one safety spot.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Utah has been without<\/span><b> Rabbit Evans<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for most of the year, and they lost his replacement <\/span><b>Nate Ritchie<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to injury two weeks ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sophomore <\/span><b>Jackson Bennee<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who previously was seeing snaps in the nickel corner role, stepped into the starting free safety role last week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Utes pass defense suffered no ill effects last week, but Arizona State\u2019s offense was overmatched with its backup quarterback<\/span><b> <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">filling in.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU\u2019s issues in the pass game have created problems for the offense on third downs, as the Cougars only rank 47th in third-down conversion rate and 91st in third-and-long conversion rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on BYU vs. Utah Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BYU tends to fall flat in big games, so let\u2019s<\/span><b> bet on Utah to cover the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Under head coach <\/span><b>Kalani Sitake<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, BYU is 5-19 against teams that finish the season ranked in the AP Top 25 \u4e00 a qualifier which is likely to include this Utah squad by season\u2019s end.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Cougars have played just one team (Arizona) with a winning record, and this could be the game that exposes them as a fraud.<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":111621,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Utah vs. BYU: Week 8 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for BYU vs. Utah when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 8 of the 2025 NCAA 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