{"id":114600,"date":"2025-10-24T11:37:51","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T15:37:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=114600"},"modified":"2025-10-24T15:11:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T19:11:10","slug":"best-bet-missouri-vanderbilt-betting-picks-week-9-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-missouri-vanderbilt-betting-picks-week-9-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: Week 9 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s check out a battle between SEC contenders as Missouri pays a visit to Vanderbilt.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Missouri vs. Vanderbilt, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanderbilt -2.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Missouri at Vanderbilt Best Bet Prediction:<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri\u2019s defense might be overmatched against Vandy\u2019s rushing attack, so let\u2019s <strong>bet Vandy against the spread<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Missouri vs. Vanderbilt, best line: Vanderbilt -2.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Vanderbilt -2.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><b>When Missouri is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri offensive coordinator <\/span><b>Kirby Moore<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> leans on his backfield in a run-centric offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, the Tigers run the ball at a rate 1.1% above expected based on situational data, with <\/span><b>Ahmad Hardy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> carrying the bulk of that load.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So let\u2019s check out the run game matchup based on opponent-adjusted data from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri: ranked 49th in yards before contact\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanderbilt: ranked 130th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri: ranked 5th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanderbilt: ranked 34th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At first glance, the numbers appear to favor Missouri, but Moore\u2019s conservative scheme might level the playing field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mizzou leans on heavy formations, which has allowed defenses to stack the box on 68% of handoffs, the nation\u2019s 10th-highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The weakness of Vanderbilt\u2019s run defense has been its inability to consistently generate early contact.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, with a stacked box, the Commodores rank 11th in early contact rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, Vandy has stopped opponents for 0 or negative yards on 26% of attempts with a stacked box, ranked 21st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When Vandy lost convincingly to Alabama earlier this year, running back <\/span><b>Jam Miller <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(22 carries, 136 yards) was a major factor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Alabama\u2019s spread offense allowed Miller to run into a light box on 19 of those 22 carries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hardy hasn\u2019t had more than 10 carries into a light box in any game this year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s also worth noting that Hardy is more of a boom-or-bust running back than you might expect given his impressive raw numbers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Hardy is stuffed in the backfield 37% of the time, ranked 40th out of 100 qualified ball carriers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Vanderbilt can limit the damage done by Hardy, it will put pressure on quarterback <strong>Beau Pribula<\/strong> and the passing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pribula, a transfer from Penn State, has been effective in his first year as the starter, but handling pressure has been an issue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s take a look at some of his numbers when facing pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yards per attempt: 5.0, ranked 104th out of 133<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sack rate: 22.5%, ranked 112th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Positive EPA rate: 25%, ranked 100th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Those numbers are cause for concern heading into a matchup with a Vanderbilt pass-rush unit posting impressive numbers:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">42% pressure rate on non-blitzes, ranked 1st<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">54% pressure rate versus traditional dropbacks, ranked 4th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">41% pressure rate overall, ranked 5th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There\u2019s still hope for Missouri\u2019s passing attack, however, as the Tigers have excelled in the quick passing game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Missouri is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt (ranked sixth), while Vandy\u2019s defense ranks 67th by the same metric.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Kevin Coleman Jr<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a transfer from Mississippi State on his fourth school in four years, has filled that role in the offense, averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception when targeted within five yards of the line of scrimmage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So despite some concerns about Vandy\u2019s pass rush, there\u2019s a chance Missouri\u2019s passing attack remains effective if it leans into the quick passing game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>When Vanderbilt is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanderbilt\u2019s Heisman-hopeful quarterback, <\/span><b>Diego Pavia<\/b>, <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is the star of the show, but the Commodores offense is built around its rushing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vandy\u2019s strategy is to run the ball and bleed the clock, because any game that turns into a shootout is likely going to end poorly for Vandy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With a pace of play ranked 131st, the strategy tends to work well, so long as Vandy can control the game on the ground.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This was Vandy\u2019s strategy last year as well, and it played a pivotal role in its upset of Alabama when the Commodores controlled the clock for 42 minutes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But Vandy still only went 7-6 last season, so what\u2019s different about this year\u2019s squad?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Pavia gets all the headlines, it\u2019s Vandy\u2019s offensive line that deserves credit for the improvement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on opponent-adjusted data, Vandy\u2019s running backs lead the nation in yards before contact \u4e00 a stunning turnaround for a unit that ranked 130th by the same metric last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s possible the remarkable turnaround is due to a unique approach used by<\/span><b> Tim Beck<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and his offensive line coach<\/span><b> Chris Klenakis<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Instead of having linemen always line up on the same side of the offensive line, Vandy has strong-side and quick-side linemen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This scheme puts players in a better position to highlight their strengths \u4e00 for example, the quick guard will be in a position to be the pulling guard more frequently.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It seems it took time for Vandy to iron out the kinks in this scheme, but in Year 2, it\u2019s running smoothly and likely gives them a significant edge in the run game in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Vandy\u2019s offensive line leads the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact, Missouri\u2019s defense ranks 88th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And if we drill down further, the run game matchup appears to favor Vandy even more.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since the Commodores lean on heavier formations and defenses don\u2019t respect Pavia\u2019s arm, Vandy sees stacked boxes at a high rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Sports Info Solutions, Vanderbilt running backs have taken handoffs into a box with seven or more defenders 79% of the time, the third highest rate in the nation (even higher than Army!).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Theoretically, a stacked box makes it easier to stop the run, but that hasn\u2019t been the case for Missouri, which is allowing 2.5 yards before contact with a stacked box, ranked 114th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Missouri\u2019s second level excels at preventing yards after contact \u4e00 it ranks second in the nation in opponent-adjusted yards after contact \u4e00 giving up free untouched yardage is going to make it easy for Vanderbilt to avoid tough down-and-distance situations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s an area in which the Commodores already excel, ranked fifth in the nation in third-and-long avoidance rate (15% of sets of downs reach a third-and-seven or longer).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Avoiding those situations is critical to Vandy\u2019s success due to Pavia\u2019s issues as a downfield passer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws of 10 or more yards, he ranks 69th in completion rate, and it is 83rd on throws of 15 or more yards.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Avoiding passing downs will also be crucial due to Missouri\u2019s pass-rush unit, one of the best in the nation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Led by <\/span><b>Damon Wilson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and<\/span><b> Zion Young<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So if Missouri builds a second-half lead or finds a way to contain the run game and force Pavia to make plays through the air, Vandy might be in trouble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, this appears to be an ideal matchup for the Commodores run game to control the flow of the game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This looks like a good matchup for the Commodores to be able to execute their preferred game plan, so <\/span><b>let\u2019s take Vanderbilt against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This has the potential to be a historic game for Vanderbilt, as it has never won three games against ranked opponents in a season (it has two already), and it has never defeated ranked teams in consecutive games (it beat LSU last week).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":112800,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Missouri vs. Vanderbilt: Week 9 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Vanderbilt vs. Missouri when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 9 of the 2025 NCAA 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