{"id":114608,"date":"2025-10-24T11:43:29","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T15:43:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=114608"},"modified":"2025-10-26T10:03:44","modified_gmt":"2025-10-26T14:03:44","slug":"best-bet-texas-am-lsu-betting-picks-week-9-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-texas-am-lsu-betting-picks-week-9-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Texas A&#038;M vs. LSU: Week 9 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s break down a critical SEC showdown as LSU tries to stick in the playoff race and Texas A&M hopes to remain undefeated.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Texas A&M vs. LSU, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M -2.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Texas A&M at LSU Best Bet Prediction:<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trust <strong>Brian Kelly<\/strong> to get the job done with his back against the wall and <strong>bet LSU against the spread<\/strong><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Texas A&M vs. LSU, best line: LSU +2.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: LSU +2.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><b>When Texas A&M is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M runs a balanced, slow-paced offense under coordinator <\/span><b>Collin Klein<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Aggies rank 92nd in pace of play and, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, have a rate 1.2% above expected based on situational data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Klein is slightly favoring the passing attack this year, the run game has always been his calling card, and it\u2019s still what makes this Aggies offense click.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on this opponent-adjusted data from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>, however, LSU\u2019s much-improved defense might be a formidable opponent:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M: ranked 30th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU: ranked 10th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M: ranked 37th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU: ranked 110th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite LSU\u2019s success generating early contact, the yards after contact metric might be more critical in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Klein likes to use heavy formations, which invite stacked boxes and naturally increase the rate of early contact.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, Aggie running backs have faced seven or more defenders in the box 62% of the time, the 19th highest rate per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU\u2019s defense ranks 19th in early contact rate with a stacked box, but since the Tigers struggle to bring ball carriers down on first contact, they still allow 5.0 yards per attempt with a stacked box, ranking 97th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Le\u2019Veon Moss<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and<\/span><b> Rueben Owens <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">share the ball in the A&M backfield and have been equally strong running into stacked boxes, as evidenced by these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moss: 5.0 yards per attempt, 3.0 yards after contact per attempt<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Owens: 5.3 yards per attempt, 2.7 yards after contact per attempt<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Moss was lost to an injury two weeks ago, which forced<\/span><b> E.J. Smith<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (son of <\/span><b>Emmitt Smith<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">) into action.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Smith was effective against a terrible Arkansas defense last week, but the sixth-year senior has been a career backup for a reason.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A productive rushing attack will be critical in this game because A&M\u2019s offensive line will have its hands full with the LSU pass rush, and protecting <\/span><b>Marcel Reed<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is critical to the Aggies\u2019 offensive success.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When facing pressure, Reed excels at avoiding drive-killing mistakes \u4e00 ranks 26th in sack rate versus pressure \u4e00 but he struggles to keep the offense on track.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reed only ranks 68th in the country and eighth in the SEC in positive EPA rate against pressure, per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So let\u2019s check out the matchup in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M: ranked seventh in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU: ranked first in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although both units have been strong, the edge probably goes to LSU due to A&M\u2019s tendency to use Reed as a traditional dropback passer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reed has taken a dropback of three or more steps 57% of the time (average is 50%), and those dropbacks tend to give the defense more time to create pressure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU has generated a 52% pressure rate against traditional dropbacks, so pressure will be unavoidable, and Reed will need to make plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for the Aggies, Reed has the skillset to adjust, and a quicker passing attack in this game might be the way to beat LSU\u2019s defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Reed primarily uses traditional dropbacks, one-step drops and RPOs still account for 33% of his dropbacks, per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On those one-step drops and RPOs, Reed has been excellent:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">74% completion rate, ranked 40th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.3 yards per attempt, ranked 18th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">63% positive EPA rate, ranked 1st<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Success on these types of plays is made possible in part due to Reed\u2019s quick processing skills, but also due to his weapons at receiver.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A&M added <\/span><b>Mario Craver<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>KC Concepcion<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from the transfer portal, and both are perfectly suited for a quick passing attack due to their play-making ability after the catch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In large part due to the contributions of Craver and Concepcion, A&M ranks eighth in the country in yards after catch per reception (7.4).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU\u2019s secondary is much improved this year, but limiting yards after catch has been an area of weakness, as the Tigers\u2019 defense ranks 58th by the same metric.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Partially for this reason, LSU\u2019s defense has been vulnerable to the quick passing game, allowing 6.7 yards per attempt on one-step dropbacks and RPOs, ranked 67th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So as long as Klein makes the necessary adjustments, A&M should have success negating the LSU pass rush with a quick-strike passing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>When LSU is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU offensive coordinator<\/span><b> Joe Sloan<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> leans heavily on the passing attack, though not because the unit has been particularly effective.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Campus2Canton, the Tigers throw the ball at a rate 12% above expected based on situational data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The reason for the pass-heavy approach is primarily due to the lack of a rushing attack.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Texas A&M\u2019s run defense has not been dominant, and this is an intriguing matchup based on the stark contrast between each team\u2019s strengths and weaknesses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s take a look at the mismatch in the run game based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU: ranked 105th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M: ranked 26th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU: ranked 20th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M: ranked 106th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Caden Durham <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is a physical runner, and when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he\u2019s averaging 2.8 yards per attempt, the second-best mark in the SEC.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, Texas A&M\u2019s issues bringing down the ball carrier upon first contact might allow LSU to have some success in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s also worth noting the Aggies run defense has been particularly poor when forced to line up with a light box \u4e00 and LSU running backs have faced a light box 63% of the time thanks to Sloan\u2019s spread scheme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M is allowing 5.8 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 87th).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A team with a better rushing attack could exploit that weakness in the Aggies defense, but since LSU leans so heavily on the passing attack, that area of the offense is more likely to decide this game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately for LSU, injuries are likely to play a role in the passing game, as the Tigers lost left tackle <\/span><b>Tyree Adams<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to a sprained ankle last week at Vanderbilt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even with Adams in the lineup, LSU was going to have a hard time against the Aggie pass rush, as demonstrated by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LSU: ranked 72nd in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M: ranked 11th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A&M\u2019s pass rush should have no issues getting to the relatively immobile <strong>Garrett Nussmeier<\/strong> due to LSU\u2019s tendency to have him sit in the pocket.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against traditional dropbacks (which Nussmeier uses 52% of the time), A&M generates a 52% pressure rate, ranked eighth in the nation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Much like Texas A&M, however, LSU should be able to pivot to a different approach and get the ball out more quickly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out Nussmeier\u2019s numbers on one-step dropbacks and RPOs via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">77% completion rate, ranked 29th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">7.3 yards per attempt, ranked 44th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">58% positive EPA rate, ranked 14th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M\u2019s defense ranks 80th in yards per attempt against one-step dropbacks and RPOs, so this appears to be a weakness LSU can exploit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on LSU vs. Texas A&M Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is the ideal spot to side with Kelly<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, so let\u2019s <strong>bet on LSU against the spread<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At LSU, Notre Dame, and Cincinnati, Kelly is a combined 13-7 outright as a home underdog with a winning record at each stop.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although this should be a competitive game and both teams have advantages in certain areas, Kelly\u2019s strong track record in this type of game, coupled with the edge of playing under the lights in Death Valley, makes LSU look like a strong play.<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":110973,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Texas A&M vs. LSU: Week 9 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for LSU vs. Texas A&M when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 9 of the 2025 NCAA season.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-114608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Marcel-Reed-Week-3-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114608"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":114621,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114608\/revisions\/114621"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110973"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}