{"id":114622,"date":"2025-10-26T09:00:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-26T13:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=114622"},"modified":"2025-10-26T10:04:45","modified_gmt":"2025-10-26T14:04:45","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-8-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-8-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Week 8 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Minnesota Vikings.<\/p>\n<p>Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 8, including Miami Dolphins quarterback <strong>Tua<\/strong> <strong>Tagovailoa<\/strong>, Carolina Panthers running back <strong>Rico<\/strong> <strong>Dowdle<\/strong>, and Cleveland Browns running back <strong>Quinshon<\/strong> <strong>Judkins<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 8 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-113) + Over 0.5 INTs (-151)<\/h2>\n<p>With this one, I\u2019m doubling down on how bad I think Tagovailoa will be.<\/p>\n<p>This season, Tagovailoa has had 202 passing yards or fewer in four of seven games.<\/p>\n<p>In one of the games he went over, he barely did, passing for 205.<\/p>\n<p>This week, he\u2019ll face a Falcons defense that\u2019s allowed a league-low 155.67 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Josh<\/strong> <strong>Allen<\/strong> has the most passing yards against them this season, and that was 180 yards.<\/p>\n<p>Going further, the Falcons defense primarily plays Cover 3.<\/p>\n<p>Opposing quarterbacks have seen it on 89 of their dropbacks.<\/p>\n<p>Against Cover 3 specifically, Tagovailoa has been horrendous.<\/p>\n<p>These numbers are so poor that I had to refresh the page to ensure there wasn\u2019t a bug.<\/p>\n<p>These are the stats: 54.1% completion rate, 398 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, 8 interceptions. He has 10 this season.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s absurd.<\/p>\n<p>The Falcons also average 1 interception per game, which makes Tagovailoa\u2019s line that much more perplexing.<\/p>\n<p>Now, let\u2019s examine the games in which Tagovailoa went over 202 passing yards.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Week 2 vs. New England Patriots: Only faced Cover 3 on 6 dropbacks<\/li>\n<li>Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: Averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt against Cover 3 (11 dropbacks)<\/li>\n<li>Week 6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2 interceptions versus Cover 3<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tagovailoa is in for a rough game, and I\u2019m slamming the unders.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Week 8 Prediction: Rico Dowdle 12+ Carries (-133)<\/h2>\n<p>Dowdle has been on a rampage lately, rushing 70 times for 468 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and 1 touchdown over the last three games.<\/p>\n<p>In Weeks 5 and 6, he had 53 carries for 389 yards and a touchdown.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, that was without fellow running back <strong>Chuba<\/strong> <strong>Hubbard<\/strong> in the lineup due to injury.<\/p>\n<p>In Hubbard\u2019s first game back, he did outsnap Dowdle 38-33.<\/p>\n<p>However, Dowdle led the way with 17 carries to Hubbard\u2019s 14.<\/p>\n<p>Not only did Dowdle get more carries, but he was far more efficient.<\/p>\n<p>Dowdle ran 17 times for 79 yards, whereas Hubbard ran 14 times for 31 yards.<\/p>\n<p>Having Dowdle on the field is better for the Panthers if they want a chance at upsetting the Bills as a 7.5-point home underdog with <strong>Andy<\/strong> <strong>Dalton<\/strong> under center.<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s straight up the better running back right now, and the Bills are vulnerable to opposing running games.<\/p>\n<p>This season, they\u2019re allowing 116 rushing yards per game to the position, which is third-most in the NFL.<\/p>\n<p>Opposing running backs are also averaging 21.33 attempts per game.<\/p>\n<p>We've seen some running back tandems go up against the Bills before, including the Falcons and New Orleans Saints.<\/p>\n<p>For the Falcons, both <strong>Bijan<\/strong> <strong>Robinson<\/strong> and <strong>Tyler Allgeier<\/strong> had double-digit carries, while <strong>Alvin Kamara<\/strong> and <strong>Kendre<\/strong> <strong>Miller<\/strong> each had at least 11.<\/p>\n<p>I expect Dowdle to be in the Robinson and Kamara realm, meaning he should be the one seeing the majority of the carries.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Hubbard will still get work, but if Hubbard can\u2019t generate production, the Panthers will have to look toward Dowdle even more.<\/p>\n<p>Dowdle had 17 carries last week despite being outsnapped, and 12 carries is a reasonable line to reach despite them being such heavy underdogs.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 8 Prediction: Quinshon Judkins Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-113)<\/h2>\n<p>Last week, I took the over on Judkins at 85.5 rushing yards, and he finished with 84.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not mad, just disappointed.<\/p>\n<p>This time, I\u2019m taking the under, and no, it\u2019s not only because he fell short of my pick last week.<\/p>\n<p>However, some underlying numbers helped me get to this prediction.<\/p>\n<p>Judkins has been great this season.<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s finished with fewer than 70 yards just twice.<\/p>\n<p>However, he\u2019s averaged 3.9 yards per carry in half of his games.<\/p>\n<p>While he had 84 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns last week against the lowly Dolphins, he did it on 25 carries (3.4 yards per carry).<\/p>\n<p>Now, he\u2019ll face a New England Patriots defense on the road that\u2019s allowing just 59 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, no single running back hit 70 yards against the Patriots.<\/p>\n<p>Going further, when trailing by 0-7 points (the Browns are 7-point underdogs), Judkins has had 44 carries for 166 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry.<\/p>\n<p>Something else to consider is that Judkins has received 88% of his carries in the first half.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, if he\u2019s under 70 rushing yards at halftime, you can feel fairly confident that he\u2019ll finish under this line.<\/p>\n<p>Not only that, but his yards per carry drop dramatically after the first quarter:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>First quarter: 63 carries for 316 yards (5.0 yards per carry), and 3 touchdowns.<\/li>\n<li>Second quarter: 33 carries for 119 yards (3.6 yards per carry), and 1 touchdown.<\/li>\n<li>Third quarter: 8 carries for 20 yards (2.5 yards per carry).<\/li>\n<li>Fourth quarter: 5 carries for 12 yards (2.4 yards per carry), and 1 touchdown.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Patriots have a fantastic run defense, and while Judkins gets a bunch of work, he\u2019s quite inefficient.<\/p>\n<p>Pass.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week 8 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":108312,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 8","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season, including Tua Tagovailoa and Quinshon Judkins.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-114622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-300x206.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-768x527.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-694x694.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114622"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":114623,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114622\/revisions\/114623"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}