Fortunately, Nix and Denver\u2019s offense have a golden opportunity to build on their explosive fourth quarter in a cupcake matchup against Dallas\u2019s dreadful defense.<\/p>\n
According to Sumer Sports, the Cowboys are 29th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed (0.13) and 31st in success rate allowed (49.14%).<\/p>\n
The Broncos don\u2019t have a juggernaut offense.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, it\u2019s above average, ranking tied for ninth in EPA per play (0.04).<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also a versatile offense, capable of moving the ball through the air via Nix to Courtland<\/strong> Sutton<\/strong> and a mix of ancillary pieces or on the ground with Nix\u2019s legs, J.K. Dobbins<\/strong>, or a sprinkling of RJ<\/strong> Harvey<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades the Broncos first in pass blocking and 12th in run blocking.<\/p>\n So, in addition to their stellar EPA ranks on offense, their offensive line is passing PFF\u2019s film-grading test.<\/p>\n The Cowboys have an even more potent offense than the Broncos. Yet, Dallas\u2019 high-flying offense is saddled by a dreadful defense.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Denver\u2019s above-average offense is the B-side of their offensive and defensive units.<\/p>\n The Broncos are tied for second in EPA per play allowed (-0.10) and first in success rate allowed (35.68%).<\/p>\n The Broncos have more paths to victory than the imbalanced Cowboys.<\/p>\n Moreover, Nix\u2019s and Dak Prescott<\/strong>\u2019s home and road splits are a critical consideration.<\/p>\n According to Pro Football Reference, Nix is 9-2 at home with a 95.0 quarterback rating versus 6-7 with an 88.2 quarterback rating on the road.<\/p>\n Per StatHead, last week\u2019s 1-point victory against the Giants was Nix\u2019s only win at home by fewer than 8 points.<\/p>\n Prescott is a fire-breathing giant at home and less imposing, albeit still stellar, on the road.<\/p>\n Since 2023, he\u2019s tallied a 106.3 quarterback rating at home in 15 games versus a 95.2 quarterback rating in 18 games on the road.<\/p>\n Prescott and the Cowboys were only 8-10 in Prescott\u2019s 18 road starts since 2023.<\/p>\n Ultimately, the well-rounded Broncos and their second-year quarterback should take advantage of playing at home and beat the Cowboys by more than 3.5 points on Sunday, and the -102 line offered at BetMGM Sportsbook is the most appealing line across sportsbooks.<\/p>\n\t
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