{"id":115118,"date":"2025-11-02T08:30:33","date_gmt":"2025-11-02T13:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=115118"},"modified":"2025-11-02T09:01:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-02T14:01:16","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-9-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-9-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 9"},"content":{"rendered":"

Week 9 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens.<\/p>\n

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 9, including Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua<\/strong> Tagovailoa<\/strong>, Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton<\/strong> Mitchell<\/strong>, and Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron<\/strong> Jones<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Week 9 Prediction: Aaron Jones Under 8.5 Rush Attempts (-120)<\/h2>\n

Looking at another running back, I\u2019m taking the under on Jones\u2019 rush attempts at 8.5 in his second game back since getting injured and landing on injured reserve in Week 2.<\/p>\n

Across Weeks 1, 2, and 8 \u2014 games in which Jones, Zavier<\/strong> Scott<\/strong>, and Jordan<\/strong> Mason<\/strong> were all healthy and playing \u2014 Mason saw 58.3% of the running back carries to Jones\u2019 37.5% and Scott\u2019s 4.2%.<\/p>\n

In Week 8, a 27-point loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, Jones led the way with a 45.5% running back carry share, but in this case, that was just 5 totes for 15 yards.<\/p>\n

Mason finished with 3 yards on 4 carries, and Scott had 16 yards on 2 carries.<\/p>\n

It was just a rough day running the ball overall.<\/p>\n

Now, the Vikings are facing a Lions defense that allows 16.57 carries (second fewest), 65.86 rushing yards (third fewest), and less than four yards per carry per game to opposing running backs.<\/p>\n

The Vikings are 8.5-point underdogs and have J.J. McCarthy<\/strong> back under center for the first time since he sprained his ankle in Week 2.<\/p>\n

Honestly, it\u2019s a pretty realistic possibility that we see another incredibly poor stat line across the board from these running backs.<\/p>\n

Shoot, even going back to Week 1, when everyone was healthy and playing, Jones still had just eight carries and had 29 yards.<\/p>\n

Right now, it would take the Vikings playing with a substantial lead or a Mason injury for Jones to see this kind of playing time or volume.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Week 9 Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa 1+ Interception (-133)<\/h2>\n

Heading into this game, the Dolphins and Tagovailoa actually had a great game, beating the Atlanta Falcons 34-10.<\/p>\n

In the game, Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes for 205 yards and 4 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Yes, it was a great game, but to be honest, a broken clock is right twice per day.<\/p>\n

In the two games before that, Tagovailoa had just 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions.<\/p>\n

Now, on Thursday Night Football, Tagovailoa will face a Ravens defense that has struggled but is improving slightly.<\/p>\n

They had an interception last week against the Chicago Bears and held Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew<\/strong> Stafford<\/strong> to 181 passing yards on 26 attempts.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not to say they\u2019re on the level they were in the second half of last year, but hey, an improvement is something at this point.<\/p>\n

Defensively, the Ravens play Cover 1 and Cover 3 on just over 60% of opponent dropbacks.<\/p>\n

Against these coverages, Tagovailoa has had a rough go of it, completing 55 of 97 passes (56.7%) with 6.6 yards per attempt, 3 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.<\/p>\n

Additionally, this season, Tagovailoa has thrown half of his interceptions while trailing by up to seven points.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a key number because the Ravens are favored by 7.5 points.<\/p>\n

Not only that, but in the five games the Dolphins have been underdogs, Tagovailoa has thrown 9 of his 10 interceptions.<\/p>\n

While Tagovailoa had a good game last week and the Ravens defense hasn\u2019t been fantastic, he\u2019ll likely be in a position playing from behind and be forced to throw against coverages he has struggled against.<\/p>\n

Week 9 Prediction: Keaton Mitchell Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-108)<\/h2>\n

In that same game, I\u2019m looking toward Mitchell, a backup running back for the Ravens.<\/p>\n

The Ravens will have quarterback Lamar<\/strong> Jackson<\/strong> finally back in the lineup.<\/p>\n

This will provide a massive boost to the passing game, and Jackson will also handle his fair share of carries.<\/p>\n

That said, over the last three games, all without Jackson, Derrick<\/strong> Henry<\/strong> is handling 80% of running back carries, while Justice<\/strong> Hill<\/strong> is at 10.7% and Mitchell is at 9.3%.<\/p>\n

Over that span, Mitchell has just 4 carries, and all of them were in Week 8.<\/p>\n

In a 30-16 win over the Bears, Mitchell ran for 43 yards on 4 carries.<\/p>\n

In Week 5, his first game of the season, Mitchell had 3 carries for eight yards.<\/p>\n

As for this week's opponent, the Dolphins do allow a lot of production to running backs, including 23.5 carries, 117.62 rushing yards, and 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game.<\/p>\n

This also includes 5.01 yards per carry.<\/p>\n

For what it\u2019s worth, though, the Dolphins allowed just 43 total rushing yards to Atlanta Falcons running backs last week, and held Bijan<\/strong> Robinson<\/strong> to 25 yards on 9 carries.<\/p>\n

While Mitchell had a nice game on limited touches last week, that\u2019s not exactly the most reliable data.<\/p>\n

In 2024, he played just five games and had 15 carries for 30 yards.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to back him here.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a scenario in which he gets 3 carries, for example, and gets over the mark, but it is also possible that he does not touch the ball at all.<\/p>\n

With Henry playing well over the last two weeks and Jackson back in the lineup to eat up some carries and actually move the ball through the air, Mitchell\u2019s number may not be called enough to reach this mark.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Week 9 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":109962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 9","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season, including Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Jones.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-115118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-300x229.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-768x585.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-694x694.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Aaron-Jones-Week-1-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115118"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115185,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115118\/revisions\/115185"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}