{"id":115122,"date":"2025-10-31T12:00:55","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T16:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=115122"},"modified":"2025-11-02T09:00:01","modified_gmt":"2025-11-02T14:00:01","slug":"best-bet-oklahoma-tennessee-betting-picks-week-10-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-oklahoma-tennessee-betting-picks-week-10-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Oklahoma vs. Tennessee: Week 10 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s dive into what appears to be a playoff elimination game between Oklahoma and Tennessee.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oklahoma vs. Tennessee, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee -2.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Oklahoma at Tennessee Best Bet Prediction:<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trust the Sooners defense and <\/span><b>play Oklahoma against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Oklahoma vs. Tennessee, best line: Oklahoma +3.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Oklahoma +2.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Oklahoma is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator<\/span><b> Ben Arbuckle<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, relying heavily on quarterback <\/span><b>John Mateer<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who also played under Arbuckle at Washington State.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The passing attack has been steady throughout the year, but the Sooners have been forced to overcome an inconsistent offensive line due to injuries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Through eight games, Oklahoma has used four different starting offensive line combinations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the injuries, Oklahoma\u2019s pass protection has been relatively strong, and the Sooners should hold an edge against Tennessee based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 36th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee: ranked 81st in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arbuckle\u2019s scheme deserves a lot of credit for the low pressure rate, however, and at times, pass protection has still been an issue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On traditional dropbacks \u4e00 which Mateer uses 57% of the time \u4e00 Oklahoma is allowing a 44.8% pressure rate, ranked 90th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So Mateer still tends to face pressure at a high rate on passing downs in some critical moments.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for Mateer, the Vol defense is unlikely to get after him with any consistency.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against traditional dropbacks, Tennessee is only generating a 38.8% pressure rate (ranked 83rd) while allowing 8.9 yards per attempt (ranked 109th), per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee\u2019s pass defense has been a mess this year, in part due to the lack of a pass rush, but also due to injuries to starting cornerbacks <\/span><b>Jermod McCoy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>Rickey Gibson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Not only are the Vols getting picked apart on traditional dropbacks, but they haven\u2019t been any better against quick dropbacks (zero\/one-step dropbacks and RPOs).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against quick dropbacks, Tennessee is allowing 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 86th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Due to these struggles, expect to see some big plays from the Oklahoma offense, as the Vols are allowing 20 or more yards on 11.4% of pass attempts, ranked 109th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the run game, Tennessee\u2019s defense has been more competitive and likely has an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 51st in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee: ranked 13th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 87th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee: ranked 81st in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma\u2019s backfield has been a mess due to the ineffectiveness of transfer <\/span><b>Jaydn Ott <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and injuries to <\/span><b>Jovantae Barnes<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which has forced freshman<\/span><b> Tory Blaylock<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to take over the bulk of the workload.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the issues, the Sooners' spread offense could potentially have some success against this Vols defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arbuckle excels at spreading the defense out in the run game, creating light boxes for his running backs on 73% of their carries, the highest rate in the SEC.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Vols should be worried about Arbuckle\u2019s scheme due to their numbers with six or fewer defenders in the box:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.7 yards before contact per attempt allowed, ranked 119th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 61st<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee might also have to contend with Mateer in the run game, although his involvement has been considerably scaled back since he returned from surgery on his hand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In three games since his return, Mateer has gained just 76 yards on 27 carries, excluding sacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In four games before the injury, Mateer was the Sooners\u2019 leading rusher with 207 yards on 38 carries, excluding sacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks this season, allowing 98 yards on 12 carries to <\/span><b>Taylen Green<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of Arkansas and 48 yards on 9 attempts to Georgia\u2019s <\/span><b>Gunner Stockton<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Tennessee is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee has been a slightly pass-heavy offense this year under head coach and play caller<\/span><b> Josh Heupel<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, though the rushing attack has always been a critical part of Heupel\u2019s offense as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, the Vols throw the ball at a rate 2.4% above expected based on situational data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee\u2019s passing attack with<\/span><b> Joey Aguilar <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">has been surprisingly strong this season, especially considering Aguilar\u2019s late start learning the offense after transferring from Appalachian State to UCLA and finally Tennessee all within one offseason.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Oklahoma will be the best defense the Vols have faced by a wide margin.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The biggest concern for Tennessee is protecting Aguilar, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee: ranked 66th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 11th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rate at which Aguilar has been under pressure is surprising due to the quick pace of Tennessee\u2019s passing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee uses quick dropbacks on 49% of pass plays, the nation\u2019s eighth-highest rate, which typically negates the pass rush.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the Vols have still allowed pressure at a 23% rate on quick dropbacks, ranked 78th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s especially concerning against a Sooners defense that has been dominant against quick dropbacks based on this data from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">29% pressure rate, ranked 23rd<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3.3 yards per attempt, ranked first<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the reasons for Oklahoma\u2019s success against quick dropbacks has been its ability to limit yards after catch on underneath routes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws five or fewer yards downfield, the Sooners are giving up just 5.6 yards after catch per reception, the sixth-lowest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee doesn\u2019t run a typical fast-paced offense, however, and Aguilar will take more shots downfield than most quarterbacks relying on quick dropbacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, Tennessee has thrown 15 or more yards downfield 24% of the time, with Aguilar completing an impressive 59% of those throws (ranked fourth).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma\u2019s defense ranks 38th by the same metric, allowing a 37% completion rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee should maintain an aggressive approach throwing downfield, however, as there is little risk of a turnover when attacking Oklahoma down the field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws of 10 or more yards, Oklahoma defenders rank 133rd in ball-hawk rate, making a play on the ball just 7.1% of the time, per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Oklahoma\u2019s pass rush does present some challenges, pivoting to a more run-heavy approach in this game likely is not an option.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the run-game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee: ranked 42nd in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 2nd in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee: ranked 13th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 89th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the strengths of Heupel\u2019s scheme is creating light boxes in the run game, which often generates some easy yards on the ground for<\/span><b> DeSean Bishop<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>Star Thomas<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Oklahoma leads the nation in run defense with light box, giving up just 2.0 yards per attempt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Sooners' success with light boxes stems from their incredible ability to generate early contact.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With six or fewer defenders in the box, Oklahoma has contacted ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage 58% of the time, ranked second in the FBS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This suffocating run defense is the primary reason Oklahoma is forcing its opponents into third-and-long at the nation's highest rate (36%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And while Aguilar has been effective throwing downfield, the Vols only rank 46th in third-and-long conversion rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Vols offense has been impressive, but this will be its toughest test, so let\u2019s<\/span><b> take Oklahoma against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With Oklahoma holding an edge in multiple areas on both sides of the ball, taking the points is the obvious choice in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Vols will certainly benefit from the home environment under the lights, but if the Sooners can just avoid costly mistakes, they should cover this spread.<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":110373,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Oklahoma vs. Tennessee: Week 10 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Tennessee vs. Oklahoma when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 10 of the 2025 NCAA season.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-115122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/John-Mateer-Week-2-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115122"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115122\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115148,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115122\/revisions\/115148"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}