{"id":115678,"date":"2025-11-08T07:10:51","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T12:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=115678"},"modified":"2025-11-08T11:22:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T16:22:20","slug":"best-bet-oregon-iowa-betting-picks-week-11-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-oregon-iowa-betting-picks-week-11-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Oregon vs. Iowa: Week 11 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s check out a game between Big Ten playoff hopefuls as Oregon pays a visit to Iowa.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oregon vs. Iowa, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon -6.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Oregon at Iowa Best Bet Prediction:<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa probably doesn\u2019t have enough offense to keep up, so let\u2019s bet Oregon against the spread.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Oregon vs. Iowa, best line: Oregon -6<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Oregon -6.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Oregon is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon is running a balanced offense under coordinator <\/span><b>Will Stein<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> this year, which is perhaps a reflection of limited trust in quarterback <\/span><b>Dante Moore<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on situational data from <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, check out the Ducks\u2019 pass rate during Stein\u2019s three years with the program and how it has shifted with his quarterbacks:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2023 with <\/span><b>Bo Nix<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 11.7% above expected<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2024 with <\/span><b>Dillon Gabriel<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 7.8% above expected<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2025 with <\/span><b>Dante Moore<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 0.9% above expected<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You might have expected confidence in Moore to rise as the season goes on, especially after he looked solid in a tough environment at Penn State.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, since that win in State College, the pass rate has been 0.4% below expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for the Ducks, they have the rushing attack to justify the more conservative approach and have dominated teams on the ground.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon running backs are gaining 107.5 more yards per game than their opponents are allowing against others, easily the best mark in the nation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So let\u2019s check out what this matchup looks like in the trenches based on some opponent-adjusted data from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: ranked 2nd in yards before contact\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: ranked 16th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: ranked 3rd in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: ranked 30th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon also uses a balanced rushing attack in terms of tight versus spread formations, which gives the Ducks the flexibility to adjust the rushing attack based on their opponent's weaknesses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa, however, has a versatile defense that can defend various schemes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the Hawkeyes' run defense based on box type based on these numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Light box: 4.1 yards per attempt, ranked 20th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stacked box: 3.3 yards per attempt, ranked 17th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the Hawkeyes have a weakness against the run, it might be defending the run out of RPOs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Sports Info Solutions, 37% of Oregon\u2019s rush attempts have come from RPOs, the highest rate of Iowa's opponents to date.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And when defending against the run game out of RPOs, Iowa is allowing 5.1 yards per attempt, ranked 71st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indiana exploited this weakness most effectively, with 9 carries for 73 yards off RPOs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penn State had success, as well (16 attempts for 73 yards).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Iowa contains the run, Oregon should be able to pivot to a more pass-heavy scheme and have success due to its ability to protect Moore.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: ranked 32nd in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: ranked 72nd in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even when Iowa forces Oregon into obvious passing downs and Moore needs to take a traditional dropback, the Hawkeyes are likely to struggle to disrupt his rhythm with any consistency.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against traditional dropbacks, Iowa ranks 115th in pressure rate generated.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The deep passing attack has been a critical part of the Ducks' offense, and if Iowa can\u2019t consistently generate pressure, Moore should have success throwing downfield.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Sports Info Solutions, 26% of Oregon\u2019s passes outside the red zone have been 15 or more yards downfield, the 26th-highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moore is completing 59% of those throws, ranked sixth, with a 73% on-target rate, ranked second.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Iowa\u2019s pass rush will give Moore time to throw downfield, beating the Hawkeye secondary isn\u2019t as easy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa ranks seventh in the nation in downfield completion rate allowed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There\u2019s also the ever-present risk of an interception when attacking the Hawkeyes\u2019 secondary, and their production is no fluke.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa ranks 10th in the country in ball-hawk rate, making a play on the ball on 16% of all attempts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws of 10 or more yards, Iowa ranks fifth with a 28% ball-hawk rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In addition to the interceptions, Oregon should also be concerned about its performance on early downs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ducks only rank 62nd in third-and-long avoidance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Indiana have all forced the Ducks into third-and-long on at least 20% of their sets of downs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa\u2019s defense only ranks 54th by the same metric, but Penn State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin all rank outside the top 80 and still had success slowing down the Ducks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon has survived despite those struggles due to an impressive 28% conversion rate on third-and-long (ranked 24th), but Iowa poses a new challenge.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Hawkeyes have only allowed seven third-and-long conversions this year and have the nation\u2019s second-best conversion rate at 9.8%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Iowa is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa is well known for its conservative, run-heavy offense led by coordinator <\/span><b>Tim Lester<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, in his second year with the program.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Lester has been an upgrade over the historically inept <\/span><b>Brian Ferentz<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the slow, downhill running style of the entire <\/span><b>Kirk Ferentz<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> era remains.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Campus2Canton, Iowa runs the ball at a rate 4.6% above expected based on situational data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa also maintains the nation\u2019s eighth-slowest pace.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As has always been the case under Ferentz, Iowa actively tries not to score (or at least, not too fast).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ferentz wants to maintain long drives to bleed the clock and shorten the game. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, his team ranks 120th in explosive play rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So against this Oregon defense, which leads the nation in explosive play rate allowed, don\u2019t expect any fireworks from this Iowa offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ferentz\u2019s game plan tends to work against most of the Big Ten, but this Oregon defense will pose a challenge as it's one of the few matchups in which Iowa does not have an edge in the run game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the run game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: ranked 82nd in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: ranked 39th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: ranked 36th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: ranked 26th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since Iowa runs the ball out of heavy formations, we should also look at how these teams compare with seven or more defenders in the box:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: 1.4 yards before contact, ranked 75th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: 1.0 yards before contact allowed, ranked 26th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: 4.6 yards per attempt, ranked 53rd<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: 3.3 yards per attempt, ranked 18th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Oregon can put Iowa into a more pass-heavy approach by containing the run or building a lead, Iowa is in serious trouble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On a positive note for the Hawkeyes, they protect quarterback <\/span><b>Mark Gronowski<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> well, but this matchup will be a challenge, as demonstrated by these opponent-adjusted numbers:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa: ranked 7th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oregon: ranked 3rd in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Iowa also handles traditional dropbacks well (ranked 20th in pressure rate allowed) and should be able to protect Gronowski in obvious passing situations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gronwoski, however, has been wildly disappointing as a passer in his first season with the Hawkeyes after transferring from South Dakota State.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On traditional dropbacks, which are most common on clear passing downs, the Hawkeyes are averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt, ranked 131st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, as you might expect, Iowa is inept on third-and-long, converting a pitiful 9.6% of attempts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That might be a problem against a <\/span><b>Tosh Lupoi<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> defense that is forcing third-and-longs 32% of the time, the nation\u2019s fifth-highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Iowa vs. Oregon Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s difficult to imagine Iowa\u2019s offense putting up enough points to cover this spread, so let\u2019s lay the points and<\/span><b> take Oregon against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Even if Iowa mostly contains Oregon, one or two big plays should be enough to put Iowa on its heels and allow the Ducks to pull away.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":115707,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Oregon vs. Iowa: Week 11 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Iowa vs. Oregon when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 11 of the 2025 NCAA season.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-115678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-300x214.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-768x549.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-694x694.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Dante-Moore-Week-11-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115678"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115678\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115708,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115678\/revisions\/115708"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/115707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}