{"id":115761,"date":"2025-11-09T07:00:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-09T12:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=115761"},"modified":"2025-11-11T16:28:05","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T21:28:05","slug":"nfl-week-10-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-10-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Rushing Yards Odds: Best Bets &#038; Predictions for Week 10"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Similar to <strong>Rico Dowdle<\/strong> earlier in the season, <strong>Kyle Monangai <\/strong>took advantage of the <strong>D'Andre Swift<\/strong> absence and rushed for 176 yards to lead all running backs in Week 9.<\/p>\n<p>Dowdle has backed his earlier performances up with continued elite rushing, whereas the Bears' success is less likely running back related and more system and opponent-driven, although it will be interesting to keep an eye on how much the rookie cuts into Swift\u2019s workload moving forward.<\/p>\n<p>Week 9 featured six running backs who hit the century rushing mark, and like the previous week, all were on the victorious team.<\/p>\n<p>To date this season, 48 running backs have reached 100 rushing yards in a game.<\/p>\n<p>39 of those were on the winning team.<\/p>\n<p>Game state matters for rushing yards, as leading or winning is generally correlated with increased rushing volume.<\/p>\n<p>In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, favorites or short dogs who can win should be on the list of running backs to target.<\/p>\n<p>Team-specific rush defense trends are also starting to develop.<\/p>\n<p>The New England Patriots have not allowed an opposing running back more than 49 rushing yards in a game, and the leading rusher against them this season is <strong>Josh<\/strong> <strong>Allen<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>On the other end of the spectrum, the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed a 100-yard rushing in five of nine games, and the opposing lead running back has reached at least 65 yards in eight consecutive games.<\/p>\n<h3>NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:<\/h3>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='111721' id='jtrt_table_settings_111721' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Week\",\"Running Back\",\"Rushing Yards\",\"Opponent\"],[\"1\",\"Derrick Henry\",\"169\",\"Buffalo Bills\"],[\"2\",\"Jonathan Taylor\",\"165\",\"Denver Broncos\"],[\"3\",\"David Montgomery\",\"151\",\"Baltimore Ravens\"],[\"4\",\"Ashton Jeanty\",\"138\",\"Chicago Bears\"],[\"5\",\"Rico Dowdle\",\"206\",\"Miami Dolphins\"],[\"6\",\"Rico Dowdle\",\"183\",\"Dallas Cowboys\"],[\"7\",\"Jahmyr Gibbs\",\"136\",\"Tampa Bay Buccaneers\"],[\"8\",\"James Cook\",\"216\",\"Carolina Panthers\"],[\"9\",\"Kyle Monangai\",\"176\",\"Cincinnati Bengals\"],[\"10\",\"Jonathan Taylor\",\"244\",\"Atlanta Falcons\"],[\"11\",\"De'Von Achane\",\"120\",\"Washington Commanders\"],[\"12\",\"Jahmyr Gibbs\",\"219\",\"New York Giants\"],[\"13\",\"James Cook\",\"144\",\"Pittsburgh Steelers\"],[\"14\",\"Tony Pollard\",\"161\",\"Cleveland Browns\"],[\"15\",\"TreVeyon Henderson\",\"148\",\"Buffalo Bills\"],[\"16\",\"Jaylen Warren\",\"143\",\"Detroit Lions\"],[\"17\",\"Derrick Henry\",\"216\",\"Green Bay Packers\"],[\"18\",\"Ray Davis\",\"151\",\"New York 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data-jtrt-table-id='111721' id='jtrt_table_bps_111721' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_111721' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='111721' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Week<\/th><th>Running Back<\/th><th>Rushing Yards<\/th><th>Opponent<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>Derrick Henry<\/td><td>169<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Jonathan Taylor<\/td><td>165<\/td><td>Denver Broncos<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>David Montgomery<\/td><td>151<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Ashton Jeanty<\/td><td>138<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Rico Dowdle<\/td><td>206<\/td><td>Miami Dolphins<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>Rico Dowdle<\/td><td>183<\/td><td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>Jahmyr Gibbs<\/td><td>136<\/td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>James Cook<\/td><td>216<\/td><td>Carolina Panthers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>Kyle Monangai<\/td><td>176<\/td><td>Cincinnati Bengals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Jonathan Taylor<\/td><td>244<\/td><td>Atlanta Falcons<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>De'Von Achane<\/td><td>120<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>Jahmyr Gibbs<\/td><td>219<\/td><td>New York Giants<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>James Cook<\/td><td>144<\/td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>Tony Pollard<\/td><td>161<\/td><td>Cleveland Browns<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>TreVeyon Henderson<\/td><td>148<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Jaylen Warren<\/td><td>143<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Derrick Henry<\/td><td>216<\/td><td>Green Bay Packers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Ray Davis<\/td><td>151<\/td><td>New York Jets<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<h2>Most Week 10 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Quinshon Judkins (+700)<\/h2>\n<p>Given the criteria listed above, the running backs that stand out the most are <strong>Rico<\/strong> <strong>Dowdle<\/strong>, <strong>Derrick<\/strong> <strong>Henry<\/strong>, and <strong>Quinshon<\/strong> <strong>Judkins<\/strong> as volume-based running backs on a team that is favored on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>The Browns are coming off a bye and play a New York Jets team that has been a train wreck in terms of meeting expectations all season.<\/p>\n<p>The vibes in the Jets locker room are at an all-time low after trading <strong>Sauce Gardner<\/strong> and <strong>Quinnen Williams<\/strong>, with several other players openly stating a desire to play elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p>Management has signaled this team is throwing the towel in on the season, and rookie head coach <strong>Aaron Glenn<\/strong> has not provided a lot of inspiration on either side of the football.<\/p>\n<p>The last time the Jets took the field, they surrendered 8 yards per carry to the Cincinnati Bengals running backs, and they are now without their best run defender as a result of a trade.<\/p>\n<p>Judkins has handled 83.7% of the running back carries since Week 3 and faces a team that may not be at 100% in terms of effort level, providing an opportunity for some explosive plays.<\/p>\n<p>The Browns offensive line ranks 20th in rush block win rate.<\/p>\n<p>However, <strong>Jack Conklin<\/strong> has been dealing with an injury, which the bye week should have helped.<\/p>\n<p>Judkins is a rookie who missed the entire pre-season and training camp.<\/p>\n<p>A post-bye improvement bump could occur for the rookie as his offseason problems are further in the rear-view mirror.<\/p>\n<p>The Jets are averaging 24.6 opponent running back rush attempts per game, the fourth most in the league, which provides a bit of a runway for Judkins if the Browns can get off to an early lead.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor has won\u00a0<strong>$4,972\u00a0<\/strong>following Warren\u2019s picks so far this season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor won\u00a0<strong>$15,636<\/strong>\u00a0following Warren\u2019s picks last season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting-fantasy-props-combo-packages\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><strong>Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Week 10 Running Back Longshot Bet: Kyren Williams Ladders<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Over 2.5 Receptions (+111)<\/li>\n<li>4+ Receptions (+271)<\/li>\n<li>5+ Receptions (+620)<\/li>\n<li>Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Over the past three seasons, Williams has handled 78% of the Rams running back carries, which is absolutely remarkable given the positional injury rate and the NFL shifting away from bell-cow running back usage.<\/p>\n<p>Williams is currently on pace for his best receiving season, as he is at a career best 0.98 yards per route and 20.75 yards per game.<\/p>\n<p>What stands out is that the Rams have played in positive game states.<\/p>\n<p>The Rams have a +89 point differential, and still, Williams is on pace for his best receiving season.<\/p>\n<p>Underneath the hood, <strong>Sean<\/strong> <strong>McVay<\/strong> has altered how his running back is used in the passing game.<\/p>\n<p>Williams is averaging 2.77 air yards per target.<\/p>\n<p>Last season, he averaged -0.8 air yards per target.<\/p>\n<p>Williams has two career games in which he has earned more than 7 targets.<\/p>\n<p>Both were 10-target games against the 49ers, against whom he averages 36 receiving yards.<\/p>\n<p>McVay tends to lean on Williams in close games.<\/p>\n<p>Should Sunday\u2019s divisional battle remain close, Williams should remain on the field for the majority of the offensive snaps.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Similar to Rico Dowdle earlier in the season, Kyle Monangai  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29329,"featured_media":114708,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Rushing Yards Odds: Best Bets & Predictions for Week 10","_seopress_titles_desc":"Get our expert analysis and top picks for the NFL's rushing yards leader in Week 10. We break down the odds, matchups, and sleeper bets for Week 10.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-115761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/quinshon-judkins-week-8-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29329"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115761"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115761\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115974,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115761\/revisions\/115974"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}