{"id":116068,"date":"2025-11-15T09:50:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-15T14:50:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116068"},"modified":"2025-11-15T09:52:58","modified_gmt":"2025-11-15T14:52:58","slug":"best-bet-notre-dame-pittsburgh-betting-picks-week-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-notre-dame-pittsburgh-betting-picks-week-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Week 12 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s dive into this week's College Game Day matchup as Notre Dame pays a visit to Pittsburgh.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame -12.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Notre Dame at Pittsburgh Best Bet Prediction:<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Pat Narduzzi<\/strong> said he doesn\u2019t care about this game, so why should we bet on Pitt? <\/span><b>Take Notre Dame against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh, best line: Notre Dame -12.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Notre Dame -12.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Notre Dame is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame runs a balanced offense under coordinator <\/span><b>Mike Denbrock<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, leaning on a mix of a powerful rushing attack and the downfield passing game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Denbrock has always preferred to feature a downfield passing attack \u4e00 it helped <\/span><b>Jayden Daniels<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> win a Heisman at LSU \u4e00 but this more balanced attack might be the best version of his scheme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When Notre Dame turns to <strong>Jeremiyah Love<\/strong> and <strong>Jadarian Price<\/strong> in the run game, Pitt has a chance to be competitive based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame: ranked 36th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 21st in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame: ranked 12th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 2nd in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame tends to lean on tight formations, allowing defenses to stack the box, which also plays into Pitt\u2019s hands.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With seven or more defenders in the box, Pitt is allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt (ranked 29th) while stuffing the ball carrier for zero or negative yards 29% of the time (ranked 10th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Pitt does manage to contain the Irish rushing attack, it shouldn\u2019t be hard for Notre Dame to pivot to a more pass-heavy approach.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since Denbrock likes his offense to attack downfield, protecting quarterback <strong>C.J. Carr<\/strong> is critical to the team\u2019s success, and that shouldn\u2019t be an issue in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Take a look at the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame: ranked 5th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 43rd in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pitt\u2019s mediocre pressure production is especially concerning given its high blitz rate (39%, ranked 10th), which should lead to more production.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blitzing Carr, a redshirt freshman, sounds like a good idea given his inexperience, but he\u2019s handled those situations well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out Carr\u2019s numbers against the blitz, via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">32% pressure rate, ranked 15th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">70% completion rate, ranked 11th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">9.5 yards per attempt, ranked 10th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">55% positive EPA rate, ranked 7th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When he has time to throw, expect Carr to attack downfield and likely have success against a mediocre Panthers secondary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, the Irish throw 15 or more yards downfield 28% of the time (ranked 15th), while Carr completes 52% of those throws (ranked 23rd).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pitt\u2019s 43.5% completion rate allowed at that depth ranks 65th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Carr\u2019s success as a downfield passer also gives Notre Dame the potential to negate one of Pitt\u2019s defensive strengths: third-down defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pitt forces opponents into third-and-long situations at the nation\u2019s fifth-highest rate \u4e00 which it might be able to replicate against Notre Dame due to its run defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Notre Dame has converted 44% of its third-and-long attempts, the nation\u2019s highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And since Pitt\u2019s secondary is suspect, the Panthers only rank 82nd in third-and-long conversion rate allowed.<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Pittsburgh is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Head coach <strong>Pat Narduzzi<\/strong> acknowledged that this game means nothing to Pitt, which has me concerned about the team\u2019s effort.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Just last week, we saw Navy sit quarterback<\/span><b> Blake Horvath <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">due to a minor injury as a precaution, knowing it has much bigger games ahead on its conference schedule.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since Pitt is alive in the ACC race and has Miami and Georgia Tech ahead in the following weeks, we should be prepared for the possibility that Pitt pulls its starters at some point in this game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Narduzzi\u2019s comments also concern me more than they might from another coach due to Pitt\u2019s style of play.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Offensive coordinator <\/span><b>Kade Bell<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is one of the more aggressive play callers in the country.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pitt plays at the nation\u2019s 29th fastest pace and, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, has a pass rate 13% above expected.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That style is not ideal if the goal is simply to get out of this game with your health intact.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adding to that concern is Notre Dame\u2019s likely dominance in the trenches.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the pass-protection matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 126th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame: ranked 9th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So will Narduzzi be comfortable sticking to their typical up-tempo, pass-heavy game plan while his true-freshman quarterback<\/span><b> Mason Heintschel<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> takes a beating?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I have my doubts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even if Pitt tries to lean into quick dropbacks (zero\/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) to negate Notre Dame\u2019s pass rush, Heintschel likely lacks the decision-making tools to execute that offense effectively.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On quick dropbacks, Heintschel has taken pressure 32% of the time, ranked 126th, per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, Notre Dame has generated pressure against quick dropbacks 32% of the time, ranked ninth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the likely issues in pass protection, expect Pitt to make some big plays downfield when Heintschel has time to throw.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, 26% of Pitt\u2019s pass attempts are 15 or more yards downfield (ranked 26th), while Heintschel is completing 59.5% of those throws (ranked fifth).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The downfield passing game has been an area of weakness for Notre Dame this season, as it allows a 44% completion rate on throws at that depth outside the red zone, ranked 71st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Pitt opts for a more conservative run-heavy approach in an effort to keep Heintschel out of harm\u2019s way, the Panthers stand little chance against the Irish run defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s take a look at how these teams stack up in the run game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 59th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame: ranked 10th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pittsburgh: ranked 133rd in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notre Dame: ranked 1st in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bell\u2019s spread offense excels at creating light boxes for his running backs, which gives Pitt an edge in certain matchups.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Notre Dame has the athletes to defend that style and is allowing just 3.4 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked eighth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further complicating things for the Panther run game is an injury to star running back <\/span><b>Desmond Reid<\/b>.<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reid was injured against NC State on October 25 and was in a walking boot on the sideline during the game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He then missed Pitt\u2019s next game against Stanford.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pitt had a bye last week, giving Reid more time to recover.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since he was listed as a game-time decision against Stanford, it\u2019s reasonable to assume he\u2019s healthy enough to play against the Irish.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But will Narduzzi be comfortable giving his best offensive weapon a typical workload in a meaningless game?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Narduzzi is serious about not caring about the outcome of this game, it raises a lot of questions for Pitt\u2019s offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pitt doesn\u2019t care about this game because it has no impact on its path to the playoffs, so <\/span><b>bet Notre Dame against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the game means nothing to Pitt, which is an extreme long shot to get an at-large playoff berth, it\u2019s a huge game for Notre Dame.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the Irish win, this will be one of the two best wins on their r\u00e9sum\u00e9, giving Notre Dame incentive to win and run up the score.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":116119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh: Week 12 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 12 of the 2025 NCAA season.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116068","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Jeremiyah-Love-Week-12-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116068","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116068"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116068\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116121,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116068\/revisions\/116121"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116068"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116068"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116068"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}