{"id":116153,"date":"2025-11-15T09:50:43","date_gmt":"2025-11-15T14:50:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116153"},"modified":"2025-11-16T09:56:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T14:56:07","slug":"best-bet-texas-georgia-betting-picks-week-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-texas-georgia-betting-picks-week-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Texas vs. Georgia: Week 12 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s dive into a SEC showdown with significant playoff implications between Texas and Georgia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Texas vs. Georgia, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia -6.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Texas at Georgia Best Bet Prediction:<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trust Kirby Smart\u2019s defense to keep the Texas offense in check and <strong>bet Georgia against the spread<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Texas vs.Georgia, best line: Georgia -5.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Georgia -6.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Texas is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas runs a pass-heavy offense this season under head coach and play caller <\/span><b>Steve Sarkisian<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, the Longhorns throw the ball at a rate 4.3% above average.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against this Georgia defense, however, Sark may need to lean even more on the passing attack as it won\u2019t be easy to find room to run the ball.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers on the run game from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas: ranked 112th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia: ranked 11th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas: ranked 92nd in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia: ranked 12th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sark\u2019s spread offense can sometimes expose certain types of defenses, but Georgia has the athletes to hold up to the test.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even with a light box, Georgia is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, ranked ninth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So for Texas to win this game, <\/span><b>Arch Manning<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will need to carry the offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Manning has clearly fallen far short of the unrealistic preseason expectations, he\u2019s shown steady growth this season and might be able to make some plays against a vulnerable Georgia pass defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the primary reasons Georgia has been shaky against strong passing attacks like Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss has been the lack of a pass rush.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia only ranks 88th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now check out where a few key opponents rank by that same metric on offense:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss: ranked 14th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: ranked 21st<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tennessee: ranked 57th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas: ranked 119th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So this will be one of the few games against a quality opponent where Georgia holds an edge in the trenches and should be able to get pressure on Manning.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether Manning has success in this game might come down to whether Texas can gain an early lead.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sark has been stubborn as a play caller this year and failed to put Manning in the best position to succeed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sark primarily uses Manning as a pocket passer \u4e00 he has taken a traditional dropback of three or more steps 62% of the time (average is 50%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Manning struggles to be a decisive decision maker when asked to stand in the pocket and read the defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When taking a traditional dropback, Manning has been pressured 53% of the time, the nation\u2019s 12th-highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some of that is the offensive line, but Manning's indecisiveness as a passer is a major factor as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ideally, Sark pivots to more quick dropbacks (zero\/one-step dropbacks and RPOs), which creates easier decisions for Manning and limits the pressure on the offensive line.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Texas only uses quick dropbacks 18% of the time (ranked 117th) and almost exclusively does so when playing with a comfortable lead.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Sports Info Solutions, Manning\u2019s three worst performances of the year have also featured his three lowest quick-dropback rates of the year:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State: 8.8%\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida: 12.2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kentucky: 18.8%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is mostly because Sark refuses to lean into quick dropbacks in a tight game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When trailing, Manning has used a quick dropback just 14% of the time compared to a 36% rate when winning.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s check out Manning\u2019s stats on quick dropbacks, via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">19% pressure rate, ranked 46th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">76% completion rate, ranked 28th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.4 yards per attempt, ranked 34th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2.5% sack rate, ranked 53rd<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now compare that to traditional dropbacks to see why this is a critical mistake by Sark:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">53% pressure rate, ranked 127th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">53% completion rate, ranked 93rd<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.4 yards per attempt, ranked 51st<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8.5% sack rate, ranked 87th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Sark does have an awakening and leans more into the quick passing game, Texas\u2019 offense might do some damage \u4e00 Georgia ranks 109th in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks \u4e00 but coaches rarely change their stripes, especially in the middle of a season.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against traditional dropbacks, Georgia ranks 13th in yards per attempt allowed and 46th in pressure rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So if the Bulldogs can just get a lead and force Texas into a less-than-ideal game plan, Smart's defense should be just fine.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Georgia is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia runs a balanced offense this season under coordinator <\/span><b>Mike Bobo<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but might lean more into the passing attack in this matchup against Texas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First-year starting quarterback <\/span><b>Gunner Stockton<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is not much of a downfield passer and is completing just 37% of his passes at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 89th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It appears as though Georgia expected this to be a weakness and went into the portal to land <\/span><b>Zachariah Branch<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from USC, one of the nation\u2019s most dangerous weapons after the catch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, Georgia has pivoted to an underneath attack, with 49% of their pass attempts coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On those throws, the Bulldogs are averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked sixth in the nation per Sports Info Solutions \u4e00 a huge leap from their 5.6 yards per attempt on <strong>Carson Beck<\/strong>&#8216;s throws at that depth last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This trend should concern Texas, as defending short passes is one of the few weaknesses of the Longhorn defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Texas is allowing 5.4 yards per attempt, ranked 74th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The quick passing game will also be critical to Georgia\u2019s efforts to negate Texas\u2019 pass rush, which ranks 19th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, on quick dropbacks, the Longhorns only rank 70th in pressure rate generated.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect Georgia to lean heavily on those quick pass plays because the run game matchup is less favorable.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions on the run game:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia: ranked 53rd in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas: ranked 5th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia: ranked 29th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas: ranked 13th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s hard to have success against the Longhorns on the ground because they simply don\u2019t make many mistakes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on just 18.5% of attempts, the third-lowest rate in the country.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Georgia\u2019s tendency to lean on tight formations is also problematic in this matchup, as the Longhorns are giving up 2.9 yards per attempt with a stacked box, the 11th-lowest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Georgia has consistent success on the ground, it might need to come from Stockton, who is averaging 38.8 yards per game, excluding sacks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on opponent-adjusted data, Texas only ranks 61st in yards allowed to quarterbacks on the ground, so perhaps there\u2019s something Georgia can exploit there.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Georgia vs. Texas Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This looks like a tough matchup for Texas\u2019 inconsistent offense, so let\u2019s<\/span><b> play Georgia against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Much like last year, the Bulldog defense has been improving as the season rolls along, and this could be an opportunity to prove their dominance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":116194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Texas vs. Georgia: Week 12 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Georgia vs. Texas when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 12 of the 2025 NCAA season.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Gunnar-Stockton-Week-12-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116153"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116193,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116153\/revisions\/116193"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}