According to Pro Football Reference, Denver\u2019s defense has allowed the fewest yards per play (4.3), generated pressure at the third-highest rate (28.5%), tallied an NFL-high 46 sacks (14 more than the second-highest defense), and allowed the third-fewest points per game (17.3).<\/p>\n
If there\u2019s a fly in the ointment of their traditional defensive statistics, the Broncos are 26th in turnovers forced (8).<\/p>\n
Their low rate for forcing turnovers can be viewed as a plus for betting the game\u2019s under, though.<\/p>\n
If the Broncos don\u2019t force turnovers, they can\u2019t instantly give the offense the ball in scoring position.<\/p>\n
Unsurprisingly, Denver\u2019s advanced defensive metrics are also superb.<\/p>\n
Per Sumer Sports, the Broncos are second in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.11), second in EPA allowed per pass (-0.11), tied for fourth in EPA allowed per rush (-0.10), and first in success rate allowed (36.22%).<\/p>\n
Even without Patrick<\/strong> Surtain<\/strong> in Week 9 and Week 10, they held the Texans to 268 total yards and 15 points and the Raiders to 188 and 7.<\/p>\n They\u2019re still an impressive unit without the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award winner.<\/p>\n Of note, the scores have been low in Mahomes\u2019s three starts against the Broncos since Sean<\/strong> Payton<\/strong> became Denver\u2019s head coach in 2023.<\/p>\n The Chiefs scored 19 points against the Broncos at home in Week 6 in 2023, 9 against them in Denver in Week 8 in 2023, and 16 against them in Week 10 in Kansas City last year.<\/p>\n Furthermore, those games featured 33, 27, and 30 points between both teams.<\/p>\n On the other side, the Chiefs have an adequate defense, if not better.<\/p>\n They\u2019re tied for 17th in yards allowed per play (5.4), fourth in scoring defense (17.7 points per game), tied for 12th in EPA allowed per play (-0.02), tied for seventh in EPA allowed per pass (-0.05), tied for 24th in EPA allowed per rush (0.02), and 19th in success rate allowed (44.97%).<\/p>\n Fortunately for Kansas City\u2019s defense, their assignment against Bo<\/strong> Nix<\/strong> and almost certainly a J.K. Dobbins<\/strong>-less backfield (he\u2019s seeking a second opinion on his foot injury) isn\u2019t imposing.<\/p>\n The Broncos are 17th in scoring offense (23.5 points per game), tied for 17th in yards per play (5.3), tied for 13th in EPA per play (0.02), and 28th in success rate (41.05%).<\/p>\n Circling back to Nix, he\u2019s having a wholly unimpressive sophomore campaign.<\/p>\n Among qualified quarterbacks this season, Nix is 18th in QBR (54.9), 27th in quarterback rating (85.7), and 22nd in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.74).<\/p>\n He\u2019s not wowing the game charters at Pro Football Focus (PFF), either.<\/p>\n Instead, Nix is 18th in PFF\u2019s passing grade among 33 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this year.<\/p>\n This matchup is unlikely to buck the trend of low-scoring slugfests in Mahomes\u2019s last three meetings against the Broncos, and Nix is ill-equipped to push this into a shootout.<\/p>\n\t
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