{"id":116208,"date":"2025-11-15T09:50:38","date_gmt":"2025-11-15T14:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116208"},"modified":"2025-11-15T09:52:53","modified_gmt":"2025-11-15T14:52:53","slug":"best-bet-oklahoma-alabama-betting-picks-week-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-oklahoma-alabama-betting-picks-week-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Oklahoma vs. Alabama: Week 12 Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s check out a critical SEC showdown as Oklahoma tries to keep its playoff hopes alive against Alabama.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oklahoma vs. Alabama, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama -5.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Oklahoma at Alabama Best Bet Prediction:<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Kalen DeBoer<\/strong> typically takes care of business in this type of game, so let\u2019s <\/span><b>play Alabama against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Oklahoma vs. Alabama, best line: Alabama -5.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Alabama -5.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Oklahoma is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma\u2019s offense flows entirely through quarterback<\/span><b> John Mateer<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, taking advantage of his skills as both a runner and passer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The passing game has been the key to Oklahoma\u2019s success this year, as first-year coordinator <\/span><b>Ben Arbuckle<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> favors throwing the ball, with a pass rate 5.2% above expected per <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Mateer, who followed Arbuckle to Norman from Washington State, is a capable passer, he doesn\u2019t have the support of a great offensive line.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, the success of Oklahoma\u2019s passing attack has been heavily matchup dependent.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for the Sooners, Alabama has one of the most inconsistent pass-rush units in the SEC.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 41st in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: ranked 100th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Oklahoma should be able to protect Mateer, it may not have a huge impact on the game due to Mateer\u2019s struggles as a downfield passer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On throws of 10 or more yards, Mateer ranks 101st in completion rate (42%) and 103rd in catchable pass rate (66%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In fact, Mateer has not been a reliable passer overall this season, even in a clean pocket.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On snaps when the defense fails to generate pressure, Mateer is only averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 104th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a clean pocket, he\u2019s also failing to generate big plays, generating 1.0 EPA or higher 20% of the time, ranked 120th per Sports Info Solutions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Alabama\u2019s secondary is not playing up to the elite level it often did under <\/span><b>Nick Saban<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, it\u2019s still a solid unit and ranks 26th in yards per attempt allowed when the pass rush fails to get pressure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the Tide can slow down Mateer in the passing game, the Sooners might be able to turn to their rushing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s take a look at how the running backs are likely to fare in this matchup based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 27th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: ranked 110th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 99th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: ranked 14th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Arbuckle\u2019s spread offense consistently forces defenses into light boxes, which should concern Alabama.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Tide are allowing 5.0 yards per attempt in a light box (ranked 51st).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, Oklahoma\u2019s revolving door of a backfield hasn\u2019t been great, picking up just 4.8 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 86th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Those numbers only reflect the running backs, however, and Mateer is a big part of the rushing attack as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama has not fared well against mobile quarterbacks and ranks 83rd in opponent-adjusted yards allowed to quarterbacks on the ground (excluding sacks), per Sports Info Solutions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out how a few mobile quarterbacks have fared against the Tide:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Florida State\u2019s <\/span><b>Tommy Castellanos<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 15 carries for 86 yards<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanderbilt\u2019s <\/span><b>Diego Pavia<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 11 carries for 69 yards<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Missouri\u2019s <\/span><b>Beau Pribula<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 9 carries for 69 yards<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Carolina\u2019s <\/span><b>LaNorris Sellers<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: 16 carries for 80 yards<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Mateer can keep drives alive with his legs, the Sooners will have a chance at an upset.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Alabama is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the country this season under first-year coordinator <\/span><b>Ryan Grubb<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Campus2Canton, the Tide throw the ball at a rate 10.4% above expected based on situational data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The passing game has been much improved this year, as <\/span><b>Ty Simpson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is a better fit than <\/span><b>Jalen Milroe <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">for the style <\/span><b>Kalen DeBoer<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> wants to play.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since Alabama relies heavily on the passing attack, protecting Simpson is key, and it looks like this game will feature a good battle in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: ranked 21st in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 20th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama primarily relies on traditional dropbacks of three or more steps, which invites more pressure, and Alabama has not been great at protecting Simpson in those situations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On traditional dropbacks, Alabama ranks 53rd in pressure rate allowed, while Oklahoma ranks eighth in pressure rate generated.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It will be critical for the Sooners' pass-rush to get home on those snaps, however, as the Oklahoma secondary is not as strong.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Take a look at these numbers on traditional dropbacks via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: 10.0 yards per attempt, ranked 15th<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: 8.5 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 100th<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Sooners simply don\u2019t have a dangerous secondary this year, so any time the pass rush doesn\u2019t get to Simspon, they\u2019re in trouble.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma ranks 16th in yards per attempt allowed when generating pressure, but just 44th when the quarterback stays clean.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Brent Venables<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019 defense has been particularly vulnerable to downfield throws, allowing a 50% completion rate on throws of 10 or more yards when failing to generate pressure (ranked 72nd).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With this knowledge of the importance of Oklahoma\u2019s pass rush, Sooners fans should be extremely nervous seeing star pass rusher <\/span><b>R Mason Thomas<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> listed as questionable on the injury report.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Against traditional dropbacks, Thomas ranks seventh in the SEC with a 22% pressure rate generated.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas suffered a hamstring injury during the Sooners' last game, and while he\u2019s had a bye week to recover, it seems unlikely that he will be back to full strength if he\u2019s able to play at all.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas played just 17 snaps last time out against Tennessee, and it\u2019s probably not a coincidence that the Sooners produced their lowest pressure rate in SEC play this year (30%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the run game, the scales tip towards Oklahoma, but since that\u2019s a small part of the Alabama offense, its impact on the game may be minimal.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the run-game numbers based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: ranked 50th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 1st in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama: ranked 127th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oklahoma: ranked 42nd in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama\u2019s struggles in the run game have set the team up in tough down-and-distance situations at an unfortunate rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, due to its inconsistent secondary, the Sooners have not been dominant in third-and-long situations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alabama ranks 19th in third-and-long conversion rate (29%), while the Oklahoma defense ranks 74th (22%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It could be a long afternoon for the Sooners if they struggle to get off the field on third downs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Alabama vs. Oklahoma Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s easy to see a path to victory for either team, but let\u2019s trust the home team and <\/span><b>bet on Alabama against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DeBoer\u2019s teams have a long history of taking care of business in big games, especially at home.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since he arrived in Tuscaloosa, DeBoer is 10-3 against the spread at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and 6-2 against the spread against ranked opponents.<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":112288,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Oklahoma vs. Alabama: Week 12 Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Alabama vs. Oklahoma when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 12 of the 2025 NCAA season.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-694x682.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Ty-Simpson-Week-5-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116208"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116208\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116285,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116208\/revisions\/116285"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}