{"id":116301,"date":"2025-11-16T08:00:54","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T13:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116301"},"modified":"2025-11-18T20:37:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T01:37:50","slug":"nfl-week-11-receiving-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-11-receiving-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Receiving Yards Odds: Best Bets &#038; Predictions for Week 11"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Davis<\/strong> <strong>Mills<\/strong> was the key to Week 10 DFS success, and <strong>Nico<\/strong> <strong>Collins<\/strong> was the beneficiary.<\/p>\n<p>He registered a season-high 15 targets and 136 receiving yards against the Jaguars, leading all\u00a0receivers in both yards and targets.<\/p>\n<p>Eight games in Week 10 were decided by a single score, which translated into nine pass catchers reaching the 100 receiving yard mark.<\/p>\n<p>Of the nine players to reach 100 yards, eight were wide receivers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trey<\/strong> <strong>McBride<\/strong> was the lone tight end.<\/p>\n<p>In the opening month of the season, three running backs registered 100-yard receiving games, but Week 10 was the sixth straight week without one.<\/p>\n<p>A change in offensive strategy is occurring as offenses continue to use a variety of formations, which has increased tight end target share while reducing wide receiver target share.<\/p>\n<p>Week 10 saw a spike in tight end targets (24.4% of passes targeted tight ends) as a result of an increase in 12 and 13 personnel.<\/p>\n<p>There is a lot of variance chasing most receiving yards, as there are more players who can potentially lead each week.<\/p>\n<p>However, chasing volume in condensed target trees is critical as game state is least important for receivers.<\/p>\n<h3>NFL Weekly Receiving Leaders, 2025:<\/h3>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='111722' id='jtrt_table_settings_111722' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Week\",\"Wide Receiver\",\"Receiving Yards\",\"Opponent\"],[\"1\",\"Zay Flowers\",\"140\",\"Buffalo Bills\"],[\"2\",\"Malik Nabers\",\"167\",\"Dallas Cowboys\"],[\"3\",\"Tre Tucker\",\"145\",\"Washington Commanders\"],[\"4\",\"Puka Nacua\",\"170\",\"Indianapolis Colts\"],[\"5\",\"Emeka Egbuka\",\"163\",\"Seattle Seahawks\"],[\"6\",\"George Pickens\",\"168\",\"Carolina Panthers\"],[\"7\",\"Devonta Smith\",\"183\",\"Minnesota Vikings\"],[\"8\",\"Tucker Kraft\",\"143\",\"Pittsburgh Steelers\"],[\"9\",\"Jaxon Smith-Njigba\",\"129\",\"Washington Commanders\"],[\"10\",\"Nico Collins\",\"136\",\"Jacksonville Jaguars\"],[\"11\",\"Michael Wilson\",\"185\",\"San Francisco 49ers\"],[\"12\",\"Jaxon Smith-Njigba\",\"167\",\"Tennessee 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data-jtrt-table-id='111722' id='jtrt_table_bps_111722' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_111722' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='111722' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Week<\/th><th>Wide Receiver<\/th><th>Receiving Yards<\/th><th>Opponent<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>Zay Flowers<\/td><td>140<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Malik Nabers<\/td><td>167<\/td><td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>Tre Tucker<\/td><td>145<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Puka Nacua<\/td><td>170<\/td><td>Indianapolis Colts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Emeka Egbuka<\/td><td>163<\/td><td>Seattle Seahawks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>George Pickens<\/td><td>168<\/td><td>Carolina Panthers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>Devonta Smith<\/td><td>183<\/td><td>Minnesota Vikings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>Tucker Kraft<\/td><td>143<\/td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/td><td>129<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Nico Collins<\/td><td>136<\/td><td>Jacksonville Jaguars<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>Michael Wilson<\/td><td>185<\/td><td>San Francisco 49ers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/td><td>167<\/td><td>Tennessee Titans<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>Jameson Williams<\/td><td>144<\/td><td>Green Bay Packers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>Puka Nacua<\/td><td>167<\/td><td>Arizona Cardinals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>Puka Nacua<\/td><td>181<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Puka Nacua<\/td><td>225<\/td><td>Seattle Seahawks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Luther Burden<\/td><td>138<\/td><td>San Francisco 49ers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Amon-Ra St. Brown<\/td><td>139<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<h2>Most Week 11 Receiving Yards Prediction (Sunday): A.J. Brown (+3000)<\/h2>\n<p>Squeaky wheel, Lions cornerback injuries, and man-coverage heavy defense provide some hope for <strong>A.J. Brown<\/strong> truthers.<\/p>\n<p>The Lions have the fourth-highest rate of man coverage this season.<\/p>\n<p>That should help <strong>Jalen<\/strong> <strong>Hurts<\/strong> and the Eagles' elite wide receivers.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s rare for a wide receiver to so eloquently speak the truth, but Brown was correct that the way in which the Eagles are winning is unsustainable, especially come playoff time.<\/p>\n<p>The down-to-down efficiency needs to improve.<\/p>\n<p>The Eagles rank 20th in offensive success rate and are 28th in three and out percentage.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Terrion<\/strong> <strong>Arnold<\/strong> and <strong>Kerby Joseph <\/strong>have been ruled out, <strong>D.J. Reed<\/strong> and <strong>Amik<\/strong> <strong>Robertson<\/strong> are questionable with hamstring injuries, and the forecasted temperature at kickoff is 45 degrees.<\/p>\n<p>If the Eagles offense can\u2019t get going against a banged-up Lions defense that is traveling outdoors, they are unlikely to repeat as Super Bowl Champions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor has won\u00a0<strong>$6,183 <\/strong>following Warren\u2019s picks so far this season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor won\u00a0<strong>$15,636<\/strong>\u00a0following Warren\u2019s picks last season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting-fantasy-props-combo-packages\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><strong>Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Week 11 Receiving Yards Longshot Bet: Quentin Johnston Ladder Bets<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Over 3.5 Receptions (-123)<\/li>\n<li>6+ Receptions (+352)<\/li>\n<li>8 + Receptions (+1400)<\/li>\n<li>Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-112)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Johnston is on the injury report, but he is likely to play against the Jaguars.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-11-passing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/\">In the quarterback article<\/a>, it was mentioned that <strong>Justin<\/strong> <strong>Herbert<\/strong> had a season high of passes thrown under 2.5 seconds last week, and 9 of Johnston\u2019s 10 targets were on passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds.<\/p>\n<p>Johnston had a season low of 3.4 air yards per target, but he had 30% of the team's targets, his second-highest of the season.<\/p>\n<p>Improving Johnston\u2019s usage outlook was the fact that he had a 32% target share on early downs in Week 10, which is well above his season long average of 19.4% and could be a signal that he will have an increased role with the offensive line deficiencies.<\/p>\n<p>Johnston has lined up out wide on more than 85% of his snaps this season, and the Jaguars have been susceptible to targets to outside wide receivers.<\/p>\n<p>They also lost <strong>Travis<\/strong> <strong>Hunter<\/strong> for the season, and <strong>Greg<\/strong> <strong>Newsome<\/strong> is on the injury report.<\/p>\n<p>Opposing wide receivers are averaging 21.1 targets per game against the Jaguars, the fourth-highest rate in the league, providing an opportunity for Johnston to repeat last week\u2019s success.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Davis Mills was the key to Week 10 DFS success,  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29329,"featured_media":113109,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Receiving Yards Odds: Best Bets & Predictions for Week 11","_seopress_titles_desc":"Get our expert analysis and top picks for the NFL's recieving yards leader in Week 11. We break down the odds, matchups, and sleeper bets for Week 11.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AJ-Brown-Week-6-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29329"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116301"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116680,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116301\/revisions\/116680"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}