{"id":116302,"date":"2025-11-16T08:00:42","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T13:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116302"},"modified":"2025-11-18T20:37:58","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T01:37:58","slug":"nfl-week-11-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-11-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Rushing Yards Odds: Best Bets &#038; Predictions for Week 11"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since the start of 2024, a running back has reached 32 or more carries four times.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jonathan<\/strong> <strong>Taylor<\/strong> has three of those games, including a 32-carry, 244-yard performance against the Falcons on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past three weeks, 17 running backs have reached the 100-yard rushing mark, and all 17 have been on the victorious team.<\/p>\n<p>To date this season, 51 running backs have reached 100 rushing yards in a game, 42 of which were on the winning team.<\/p>\n<p>Although <strong>Matt LaFleur<\/strong> is trying to will his team to wins via rushing, game state matters for rushing yards as leading or winning is generally correlated with increased rushing volume.<\/p>\n<p>In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, favorites or short dogs who can win should be on the list of running backs to target.<\/p>\n<h3>NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:<\/h3>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='111721' id='jtrt_table_settings_111721' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Week\",\"Running Back\",\"Rushing Yards\",\"Opponent\"],[\"1\",\"Derrick Henry\",\"169\",\"Buffalo Bills\"],[\"2\",\"Jonathan Taylor\",\"165\",\"Denver Broncos\"],[\"3\",\"David Montgomery\",\"151\",\"Baltimore Ravens\"],[\"4\",\"Ashton Jeanty\",\"138\",\"Chicago Bears\"],[\"5\",\"Rico Dowdle\",\"206\",\"Miami Dolphins\"],[\"6\",\"Rico Dowdle\",\"183\",\"Dallas Cowboys\"],[\"7\",\"Jahmyr Gibbs\",\"136\",\"Tampa Bay Buccaneers\"],[\"8\",\"James Cook\",\"216\",\"Carolina Panthers\"],[\"9\",\"Kyle Monangai\",\"176\",\"Cincinnati Bengals\"],[\"10\",\"Jonathan Taylor\",\"244\",\"Atlanta Falcons\"],[\"11\",\"De'Von Achane\",\"120\",\"Washington Commanders\"],[\"12\",\"Jahmyr Gibbs\",\"219\",\"New York Giants\"],[\"13\",\"James Cook\",\"144\",\"Pittsburgh Steelers\"],[\"14\",\"Tony Pollard\",\"161\",\"Cleveland Browns\"],[\"15\",\"TreVeyon Henderson\",\"148\",\"Buffalo Bills\"],[\"16\",\"Jaylen Warren\",\"143\",\"Detroit Lions\"],[\"17\",\"Derrick Henry\",\"216\",\"Green Bay Packers\"],[\"18\",\"Ray Davis\",\"151\",\"New York 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data-jtrt-table-id='111721' id='jtrt_table_bps_111721' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_111721' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='111721' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Week<\/th><th>Running Back<\/th><th>Rushing Yards<\/th><th>Opponent<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>Derrick Henry<\/td><td>169<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Jonathan Taylor<\/td><td>165<\/td><td>Denver Broncos<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>David Montgomery<\/td><td>151<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Ashton Jeanty<\/td><td>138<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Rico Dowdle<\/td><td>206<\/td><td>Miami Dolphins<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>Rico Dowdle<\/td><td>183<\/td><td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>Jahmyr Gibbs<\/td><td>136<\/td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>James Cook<\/td><td>216<\/td><td>Carolina Panthers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>Kyle Monangai<\/td><td>176<\/td><td>Cincinnati Bengals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Jonathan Taylor<\/td><td>244<\/td><td>Atlanta Falcons<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>De'Von Achane<\/td><td>120<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>Jahmyr Gibbs<\/td><td>219<\/td><td>New York Giants<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>James Cook<\/td><td>144<\/td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>Tony Pollard<\/td><td>161<\/td><td>Cleveland Browns<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>TreVeyon Henderson<\/td><td>148<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Jaylen Warren<\/td><td>143<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Derrick Henry<\/td><td>216<\/td><td>Green Bay Packers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Ray Davis<\/td><td>151<\/td><td>New York Jets<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<h2>Most Week 11 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Derrick Henry (+1200)<\/h2>\n<p>The Browns rush defense is trending in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n<p>In the first three weeks of the season, the Browns didn\u2019t allow a single running back carry over 10 yards.<\/p>\n<p>In three of their last four games, opposing running backs have had 4 carries in each game over 10 yards.<\/p>\n<p>The Browns rank 29th in explosive rush rate allowed over the past four weeks despite remaining reasonably efficient on a down-to-down basis.<\/p>\n<p>The Browns did not allow a single running back carry over 25 yards in the first six games, but have allowed one in each of the past three games.<\/p>\n<p>Henry has had 19 or more carries in each of the past four games and should be expected to have a large workload against the Browns as a touchdown favorite in a game that could have limited passing due to heavy winds off the lake.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor has won\u00a0<strong>$6,183 <\/strong>following Warren\u2019s picks so far this season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor won\u00a0<strong>$15,636<\/strong>\u00a0following Warren\u2019s picks last season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting-fantasy-props-combo-packages\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><strong>Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Week 11 Running Back Longshot Bet: Jaylen Warren Bets<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-112)<\/li>\n<li>100 + Rushing Yards (+209)<\/li>\n<li>2+ Touchdowns (+330)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Three things are certain in life: death, taxes, and the Bengals defense getting gashed by opposing running backs.<\/p>\n<p>The Bengals are allowing opposing running backs a league-high 141 rushing yards per game, 20 yards more than the 31st-ranked defense.<\/p>\n<p>The Bengals are also 29th in running back receiving yards allowed per game.<\/p>\n<p>The Bengals have allowed over 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs in every game since Week 2 and are allowing 7.9 yards per carry over their past three games.<\/p>\n<p>Warren has taken over as the lead back in the Steelers backfield, accounting for 80.3% of the running back carries over the past four games.<\/p>\n<p>The Steelers are home favorites and face the worst rushing defense in the league, which should provide Warren with plenty of opportunity to compile yards on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Trey Hendrickson<\/strong> has been ruled out for the Bengals, which improves Warren\u2019s outlook.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since the start of 2024, a running back has reached  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29329,"featured_media":114751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Rushing Yards Odds: Best Bets & Predictions for Week 11","_seopress_titles_desc":"Get our expert analysis and top picks for the NFL's rushing yards leader in Week 11. We break down the odds, matchups, and sleeper bets for Week 11.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-300x199.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-768x509.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-694x678.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Derrick-Henry-Week-8-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29329"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116302"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116681,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116302\/revisions\/116681"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}