{"id":116835,"date":"2025-11-23T08:00:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T13:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116835"},"modified":"2025-11-23T18:37:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T23:37:45","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 12"},"content":{"rendered":"

Week 12 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills.<\/p>\n

Let's look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 12, including a player from that game.<\/p>\n

Week 12 Prediction: Dawson Knox Under 2.5 Receptions (-112)<\/h2>\n

The Bills will be without tight end Dalton<\/strong> Kincaid<\/strong> once again due to his hamstring injury.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ll also be without wide receivers Curtis<\/strong> Samuel<\/strong> (elbow\/neck), Mecole<\/strong> Hardman<\/strong> (calf), and, reportedly, Keon Coleman<\/strong> (disciplinary).<\/p>\n

I\u2019m still taking the under on Knox\u2019s receptions at 2.5.<\/p>\n

Sure, those players are out, but Knox caught just one pass on three targets for 23 yards in Week 11, boasting a pedestrian 10% team target share.<\/p>\n

Over the course of this season, his target share is at just 7.2%.<\/p>\n

Additionally, looking over the game logs, the Texans have held the leading tight end on opposing teams to 2 or fewer catches on five of 11 occasions.<\/p>\n

Going further, without Kincaid on the field over the last three seasons, Knox has a target share of just 12.7%.<\/p>\n

In that same span, he also has just 17 catches against Cover 3, the coverage the Texans most often play.<\/p>\n

Those 17 catches came on nearly 230 routes.<\/p>\n

The point is that the Bills don\u2019t use him in the passing game whatsoever.<\/p>\n

Whether Kincaid is on the field or not, Knox is not getting enough looks to make him a reliable enough option to take the over.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Week 12 Prediction: Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-210)<\/h2>\n

For my final NFL player prop for this week's slate, I\u2019ll take one that I\u2019d consider a layup with Goff at more than 1.5 passing touchdowns.<\/p>\n

While he fell short of this mark last week, that was against a pretty tough Philadelphia Eagles defense on the road.<\/p>\n

Over the course of this season, he\u2019s thrown 2 touchdowns or more in six of 10 games.<\/p>\n

Of those six games, half were at home.<\/p>\n

Now, at home, he\u2019ll take on a New York Giants defense that\u2019s allowing 1.73 passing touchdowns per game.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve allowed 2 or more in four of their last five games.<\/p>\n

The only player to fall short was Bears quarterback Caleb<\/strong> Williams<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Looking at their coverage, the Giants primarily deploy Cover 1 and Cover 3, and Goff has manhandled those looks all season.<\/p>\n

When facing them, he\u2019s completing 66.5% of his passes for 1,358 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, and just 1 interception.<\/p>\n

For context, he\u2019s completed 69.7% of his passes for 2,490 yards, 8 yards per attempt, 21 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions overall this season.<\/p>\n

What about in games in which he\u2019s favored?<\/p>\n

He\u2019s completing 69% of his passes for 857 yards, 10.2 yards per attempt, and 9 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Not only that, but I do expect Jaxson<\/strong> Dart<\/strong> under center for the Giants this week, and his rushing ability could help the Giants hang around longer than you\u2019d expect.<\/p>\n

This would help put Goff in a positive game script to continue passing the ball.<\/p>\n

Goff\u2019s top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown<\/strong>, has also done extremely well against man coverage this season, catching 22 passes for 237 yards and 6 touchdowns \u2014 he has 8 total on the year.<\/p>\n

The odds don\u2019t provide top-tier value or anything at -210, but this feels like an excellent addition to a parlay.<\/p>\n

Goff should have a great bounce-back game here.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Week 12 kicks off on Thursday Night Football as the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":113738,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 12","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, including Brian Thomas Jr. and Jared Goff.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-1-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116835"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117043,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116835\/revisions\/117043"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}