{"id":116993,"date":"2025-11-23T07:30:13","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T12:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116993"},"modified":"2025-11-25T16:52:33","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T21:52:33","slug":"nfl-week-12-passing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-12-passing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Passing Yards Odds: Best Bets &#038; Predictions for Week 12"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Week 11 was difficult for passing across the league, as only 14 of the 28 starting quarterbacks threw for over 200 passing yards.<\/p>\n<p>If you had <strong>Jacoby<\/strong> <strong>Brissett<\/strong> passing for 452 yards and <strong>Bryce<\/strong> <strong>Young<\/strong> passing for 448 yards on the bingo card, congratulations.<\/p>\n<p>Game state continued to matter.<\/p>\n<p>The Cardinals fell behind by a touchdown 16 seconds into the game and were down 2 touchdowns less than 10 minutes into the game.<\/p>\n<p>Brissett was buoyed by the fact that both the Cardinal and 49er defenses are trending among the worst in the league as a result of injuries.<\/p>\n<p>Young had a slightly different path, but the Panthers trailed at halftime by double digits, and hit his ceiling by completing a comeback and the game reaching overtime.<\/p>\n<p>Through 11 weeks of the season, six of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and four quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jared<\/strong> <strong>Goff<\/strong> and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns is the outlier.<\/p>\n<p>Game state continues to be very important.<\/p>\n<p>Teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.<\/p>\n<p>Identifying which of the home underdogs can win or keep the game competitive should be the first step in selecting which games to attack for DFS and passing props.<\/p>\n<p>This week has several games with double-digit point spreads and only two games currently lined under a field goal.<\/p>\n<p>One of those features a matchup between <strong>Tyler<\/strong> <strong>Shough<\/strong> and <strong>Kirk Cousins<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Quarterback injuries are becoming a significant issue, and matchups are not ideal for high passing games this week.<\/p>\n<h3>NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:<\/h3>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='111719' id='jtrt_table_settings_111719' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Week\",\"Quarterback\",\"Passing Yards\",\"Opponent\",\"Final Score\"],[\"1\",\"Josh Allen\",\"394\",\"Baltimore Ravens\",\"41-40\"],[\"2\",\"Russell Wilson\",\"450\",\"Dallas Cowboys\",\"37-40\"],[\"3\",\"Justin Herbert\",\"300\",\"Denver Broncos\",\"23-20\"],[\"4\",\"Matthew Stafford\",\"375\",\"Indianapolis Colts\",\"27-20\"],[\"5\",\"Matthew Stafford\",\"389\",\"San Francisco 49ers\",\"23-26\"],[\"6\",\"Mac Jones\",\"347\",\"Tampa Bay Bucs\",\"19-30\"],[\"7\",\"Justin Herbert\",\"420\",\"Indianapolis Colts\",\"24-38\"],[\"8\",\"Jordan Love\",\"360\",\"Pittsburgh Steelers\",\"35-25\"],[\"9\",\"Joe Flacco\",\"470\",\"Chicago Bears\",\"42-47\"],[\"10\",\"Jared Goff\",\"320\",\"Washington Commanders\",\"44-22\"],[\"11\",\"Jacoby Brissett\",\"452\",\"San Francisco 49ers\",\"22-41\"],[\"12\",\"Jameis Winston\",\"366\",\"Detroit Lions\",\"27-34\"],[\"13\",\"Bo Nix\",\"321\",\"Washington Commanders\",\"27-26\"],[\"14\",\"Dak Prescott\",\"376\",\"Detroit Lions\",\"30-44\"],[\"15\",\"Kirk Cousins\",\"373\",\"Tampa Bay Buccaneers\",\"29-28\"],[\"16\",\"Matthew Stafford\",\"457\",\"Seattle Seahawks\",\"37-38\"],[\"17\",\"Baker Mayfield\",\"346\",\"Miami Dolphins\",\"17-20\"],[\"18\",\"Jared Goff\",\"331\",\"Chicago 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data-jtrt-table-id='111719' id='jtrt_table_bps_111719' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_111719' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='111719' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Week<\/th><th>Quarterback<\/th><th>Passing Yards<\/th><th>Opponent<\/th><th>Final Score<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>Josh Allen<\/td><td>394<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><td>41-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Russell Wilson<\/td><td>450<\/td><td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td><td>37-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>Justin Herbert<\/td><td>300<\/td><td>Denver Broncos<\/td><td>23-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Matthew Stafford<\/td><td>375<\/td><td>Indianapolis Colts<\/td><td>27-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Matthew Stafford<\/td><td>389<\/td><td>San Francisco 49ers<\/td><td>23-26<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>Mac Jones<\/td><td>347<\/td><td>Tampa Bay Bucs<\/td><td>19-30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>Justin Herbert<\/td><td>420<\/td><td>Indianapolis Colts<\/td><td>24-38<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>Jordan Love<\/td><td>360<\/td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/td><td>35-25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>Joe Flacco<\/td><td>470<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><td>42-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Jared Goff<\/td><td>320<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><td>44-22<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>Jacoby Brissett<\/td><td>452<\/td><td>San Francisco 49ers<\/td><td>22-41<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>Jameis Winston<\/td><td>366<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><td>27-34<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>Bo Nix<\/td><td>321<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><td>27-26<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>Dak Prescott<\/td><td>376<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><td>30-44<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>Kirk Cousins<\/td><td>373<\/td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/td><td>29-28<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Matthew Stafford<\/td><td>457<\/td><td>Seattle Seahawks<\/td><td>37-38<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Baker Mayfield<\/td><td>346<\/td><td>Miami Dolphins<\/td><td>17-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Jared Goff<\/td><td>331<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><td>19-16<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<h2>Most Week 12 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Jalen Hurts (+3000)<\/h2>\n<p>Is it likely <strong>Jalen<\/strong> <strong>Hurts<\/strong> has a spike passing game?<\/p>\n<p>Probably not.<\/p>\n<p>It has been well documented how uncreative the offense is in terms of routes by the wide receivers.<\/p>\n<p>However, this is an offense with <strong>DeVonta Smith<\/strong> and <strong>A.J. Brown<\/strong> facing a Cowboys secondary.<\/p>\n<p>The down-to-down efficiency is not great, but the Eagles lead the league in deep throw rate, which is very volatile but could produce some big plays.<\/p>\n<p>The Eagle offense ranks first in deep passing EPA and faces a Cowboys defense that ranks last in deep pass EPA.<\/p>\n<p>The Eagles will be without <strong>Lane<\/strong> <strong>Johnson<\/strong>, putting more responsibility on the passing game to succeed since rushing without him will be difficult.<\/p>\n<p>The Eagles are definitely behind the league in terms of creating opportunities for wide receivers, but talent sometimes overcomes the overall situation.<\/p>\n<p>An indoor game that features the best collective group of four wide receivers in any game this week has a tail outcome that can carry Hurts to a spike passing game.<\/p>\n<p>Hurts has only attempted 35 passes in a single game this season.<\/p>\n<p>It would not be surprising if his arm is leaned on more this game, either as a result of the Cowboys pushing the game or the running game having difficulties.<\/p>\n<p>In the first meeting between these two teams, the Eagles had a 12-play drive that lasted 8 minutes and an 11-play drive that took over 7 minutes.<\/p>\n<p>That is less likely in this game as the Cowboys have upgraded the run defense.<\/p>\n<p>If the Eagles struggle to run, they could rely on high-variance explosive plays.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor has won\u00a0<strong>$6,524\u00a0<\/strong>following Warren\u2019s picks so far this season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor won\u00a0<strong>$15,636<\/strong>\u00a0following Warren\u2019s picks last season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting-fantasy-props-combo-packages\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><strong>Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Week 12 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Lamar Jackson and Tyrod Taylor Passing Ladders<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Jackson over 208.5 Passing Yards (-111)<\/li>\n<li>Taylor over 185.5 Passing Yards (-113)<\/li>\n<li>Taylor 220+ Passing Yards (+212)<\/li>\n<li>Taylor 250+ Passing Yards (+459)<\/li>\n<li>Taylor over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-121)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Believe it or not, the New York Jets rank seventh in pass success rate but rank 27th in EPA per dropback and 22 in EPA per rush.<\/p>\n<p>Granted, the Jets have played the Browns and Patriots, but the defense has had a 67% rush success rate over the past two games despite trading <strong>Quinnen Williams<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Without <strong>Sauce<\/strong> <strong>Gardner<\/strong>, the Jets are likely to become a bit of a pass funnel.<\/p>\n<p>That hasn\u2019t been overly relevant to spike games since the offense has been abysmal, but the switch to <strong>Tyrod<\/strong> <strong>Taylor<\/strong>, if anything, gives the Jets some confidence to at least try to throw the ball.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Justin<\/strong> <strong>Fields<\/strong> had 170 passing yards over his final two games and attempted 13 total passes in the first half of those games.<\/p>\n<p>This provides a bit of an opportunity for the Jets offense to potentially catch the Ravens off guard and create some explosive passes.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side of the ball, Jackson is dealing with injuries and is averaging fewer than 6 rush attempts per game.<\/p>\n<p>The biggest threat to Jackson\u2019s passing ceiling was his rushing floor, which is lower as Jackson had 10 rushing yards last week.<\/p>\n<p>The spread is large and the total is in the mid-40s, but this game has a potential ceiling if the Jets offense provides any sort of spark.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week 11 was difficult for passing across the league, as  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29329,"featured_media":109077,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Passing Yards Odds: Best Bets & Predictions for Week 12","_seopress_titles_desc":"Get our expert analysis and top picks for the NFL's passing yards leader in Week 12. We break down the odds, matchups, and sleeper bets for Week 12.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jalen-Hurts-2025-Fantasy-Draft-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29329"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116993"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116993\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117177,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116993\/revisions\/117177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}