{"id":116995,"date":"2025-11-23T07:30:25","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T12:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=116995"},"modified":"2025-11-25T16:52:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T21:52:45","slug":"nfl-week-12-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-12-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Rushing Yards Odds: Best Bets &#038; Predictions for Week 12"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Running backs are averaging 4.4 yards per carry, and teams are averaging 21.3 running back carries per game, which is right in line with last season.<\/p>\n<p>Winning teams average 24.4 carries and 4.5 yards per carry compared to losing teams averaging 18.1 carries, a clear signal that running back usage is game-script dependent.<\/p>\n<p><strong>De\u2019Von Achane<\/strong> took the honors as the weekly leading rusher with 120 rushing yards, the lowest weekly leading total of the season.<\/p>\n<p>Only four running backs reached 100 rushing yards in Week 11, including two who were on losing teams, breaking a streak of 17 straight 100-yard rushers who were on the winning team.<\/p>\n<p>In chasing most rushing yards or rushing yards over prop bets, favorites or short dogs who can win should be on the list of running backs to target.<\/p>\n<p>There are three teams favored by double-digit points this week, but two are teams in which the lead running back has less than 60% of the running back carries on the season, which adds volatility to predicting a spike week.<\/p>\n<h3>NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:<\/h3>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='111721' id='jtrt_table_settings_111721' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Week\",\"Running Back\",\"Rushing Yards\",\"Opponent\"],[\"1\",\"Derrick Henry\",\"169\",\"Buffalo Bills\"],[\"2\",\"Jonathan Taylor\",\"165\",\"Denver Broncos\"],[\"3\",\"David Montgomery\",\"151\",\"Baltimore Ravens\"],[\"4\",\"Ashton Jeanty\",\"138\",\"Chicago Bears\"],[\"5\",\"Rico Dowdle\",\"206\",\"Miami Dolphins\"],[\"6\",\"Rico Dowdle\",\"183\",\"Dallas Cowboys\"],[\"7\",\"Jahmyr Gibbs\",\"136\",\"Tampa Bay Buccaneers\"],[\"8\",\"James Cook\",\"216\",\"Carolina Panthers\"],[\"9\",\"Kyle Monangai\",\"176\",\"Cincinnati Bengals\"],[\"10\",\"Jonathan Taylor\",\"244\",\"Atlanta Falcons\"],[\"11\",\"De'Von Achane\",\"120\",\"Washington Commanders\"],[\"12\",\"Jahmyr Gibbs\",\"219\",\"New York Giants\"],[\"13\",\"James Cook\",\"144\",\"Pittsburgh Steelers\"],[\"14\",\"Tony Pollard\",\"161\",\"Cleveland Browns\"],[\"15\",\"TreVeyon Henderson\",\"148\",\"Buffalo Bills\"],[\"16\",\"Jaylen Warren\",\"143\",\"Detroit Lions\"],[\"17\",\"Derrick Henry\",\"216\",\"Green Bay Packers\"],[\"18\",\"Ray Davis\",\"151\",\"New York 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data-jtrt-table-id='111721' id='jtrt_table_bps_111721' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_111721' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='111721' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Week<\/th><th>Running Back<\/th><th>Rushing Yards<\/th><th>Opponent<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>Derrick Henry<\/td><td>169<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Jonathan Taylor<\/td><td>165<\/td><td>Denver Broncos<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>David Montgomery<\/td><td>151<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Ashton Jeanty<\/td><td>138<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Rico Dowdle<\/td><td>206<\/td><td>Miami Dolphins<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>Rico Dowdle<\/td><td>183<\/td><td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>Jahmyr Gibbs<\/td><td>136<\/td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>James Cook<\/td><td>216<\/td><td>Carolina Panthers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>Kyle Monangai<\/td><td>176<\/td><td>Cincinnati Bengals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Jonathan Taylor<\/td><td>244<\/td><td>Atlanta Falcons<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>De'Von Achane<\/td><td>120<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>Jahmyr Gibbs<\/td><td>219<\/td><td>New York Giants<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>James Cook<\/td><td>144<\/td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>Tony Pollard<\/td><td>161<\/td><td>Cleveland Browns<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>TreVeyon Henderson<\/td><td>148<\/td><td>Buffalo Bills<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Jaylen Warren<\/td><td>143<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Derrick Henry<\/td><td>216<\/td><td>Green Bay Packers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Ray Davis<\/td><td>151<\/td><td>New York Jets<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<h2>Most Week 12 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): TreVeyon Henderson<\/h2>\n<p>Disclaimer: If <strong>Kenneth<\/strong> <strong>Walker<\/strong> is ruled out before Sunday morning, pivot to <strong>Zach<\/strong> <strong>Charbonnet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Cases can easily be made for <strong>Jahmyr<\/strong> <strong>Gibbs<\/strong> and <strong>Derrick<\/strong> <strong>Henry<\/strong>, but let's focus on a market that potentially overreacted to the return of <strong>Rhamondre<\/strong> <strong>Stevenson<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Henderson has 5 touchdowns in his two starts without Stevenson and averaged more than 100 yards per game against two top-10 rush defenses.<\/p>\n<p>Stevenson\u2019s role and health are unknown, which provides a bit of an opportunity to capitalize on the explosive rookie.<\/p>\n<p>The Bengal rush defense has allowed running backs to gain more than 100 rushing yards in nine straight games.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, the Bengals rank 29th in explosive rush rate allowed over the past four weeks and have allowed a 35-yard running back rush in each of the last four games.<\/p>\n<p>Henderson had a 69-yard explosive and a 55-yard explosive against the Buccaneers, and now faces a defense that has given up running back production all season.<\/p>\n<p>Even if Henderson doesn\u2019t reach 20 carries, his style allows him to gain yardage in chunks.<\/p>\n<p>The Patriots are touchdown favorites, and the Bengals are without a key offensive weapon, providing a great game script for rushing volume.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.<br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor has won\u00a0<strong>$6,524\u00a0<\/strong>following Warren\u2019s picks so far this season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>A $100 bettor won\u00a0<strong>$15,636<\/strong>\u00a0following Warren\u2019s picks last season.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting-fantasy-props-combo-packages\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><strong>Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Week 12 Running Back Longshot Bet: Jonathan Taylor Same Game Parlay (+365)<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Under 91.5 Rushing Yards<\/li>\n<li>4+ Receptions<\/li>\n<li>25+ Receiving Yards<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Steve Spagnuolo<\/strong> is great at taking away the opposition's best threat.<\/p>\n<p>For example, <strong>Saquon<\/strong> <strong>Barkley<\/strong> averaged 2.3 yards per carry in the Super Bowl last February.<\/p>\n<p>Taylor has accumulated 712 rushing yards in the second half of games this season, which coincides with the Colts leading and having a winning record.<\/p>\n<p>However, the Colts are road underdogs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Daniel<\/strong> <strong>Jones<\/strong> has completed 93.8% of attempts to Taylor this season, and Taylor has recorded at least 2 receptions in every game this year.<\/p>\n<p>The Colts have benefited from creating early leads this season.<\/p>\n<p>Should they play from behind, Taylor\u2019s usage in the passing game is likely to increase, and his rushing volume is likely to decrease.<\/p>\n<p>If using this as a same game parlay, stacking Chiefs offensive success on the other side would be wise, as this is based on the Colts playing from a negative game script.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Running backs are averaging 4.4 yards per carry, and teams  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29329,"featured_media":117006,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Rushing Yards Odds: Best Bets & Predictions for Week 12","_seopress_titles_desc":"Get our expert analysis and top picks for the NFL's rushing yards leader in Week 12. We break down the odds, matchups, and sleeper bets for Week 12.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-116995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TreVeyon-Henderson-Week-12-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29329"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116995"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117179,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116995\/revisions\/117179"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}