{"id":117343,"date":"2025-11-27T09:00:07","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T14:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=117343"},"modified":"2025-11-27T10:14:54","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T15:14:54","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-thanksgiving-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-thanksgiving-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Thanksgiving Day"},"content":{"rendered":"

We not only have Thanksgiving Day on Thursday but also three NFL games: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys, and Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals.<\/p>\n

Let's look at the best prop bets for Thanksgiving Day, with one from each game.<\/p>\n

Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-111)<\/h2>\n

Jordan Love<\/strong>\u2019s game logs are quite interesting.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s either passed for 259 yards or more or 188 yards or less \u2014 there\u2019s nothing in between.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s thrown for 259 yards or more in five of 11 games, and after this Thanksgiving Day affair, it\u2019ll be six out of 12.<\/p>\n

The Lions defense primarily plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Against those coverages this season, Love is 118 of 182 for 1,419 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.<\/p>\n

For context, this is his stat line this season: 224 of 331 for 2,560 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.<\/p>\n

If you look at his gamelogs and against Cover 1 and Cover 3 only, he\u2019s thrown for 229 yards or more in two games.<\/p>\n

This is important to note because it\u2019s not as if Love will face Cover 1 and\/or Cover 3 100% of the time.<\/p>\n

There have been 404 opposing quarterback dropbacks against the Lions, and Cover 1 and Cover 3 make up about 61% of what quarterbacks have seen.<\/p>\n

In Week 1 against the Lions' Cover 1 and Cover 3, Love had 156 passing yards and finished with 188 total.<\/p>\n

However, the Packers had a substantial lead in that game, and throwing wasn\u2019t as necessary.<\/p>\n

Not only that, but Week 1 around the NFL tends to have sluggish offenses.<\/p>\n

All that being said, opposing quarterbacks average 19.27 completions on 31.64 attempts for 226.09 yards and 1.82 passing touchdowns against the Lions.<\/p>\n

Opposing quarterbacks have hit 229 passing yards or more in five of 11 games against them, and one quarterback hit 228.<\/p>\n

Last week, the Lions' defense surrendered 366 passing yards to New York Giants quarterback Jameis Winston<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

I expect a bit more of a shootout here, which will help elevate Love\u2019s passing numbers, especially with a downfield threat like Christian<\/strong> Watson<\/strong>, who could get a massive chunk of this line on a single catch.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-190)<\/h2>\n

This season, Mahomes has completed 262 of 407 passes for 2,977 yards, 7.3 yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.<\/p>\n

Keep this in mind. That\u2019s important context to lead with.<\/p>\n

Why? The Cowboys primarily play Cover 2 and Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Yes, they\u2019ve had an atrocious defense this season, but against those coverages, Mahomes has completed 99 of 137 passes for 1,358 yards, 9.9 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.<\/p>\n

So, of the 18 touchdown passes, only 2 all season long have come against Cover 2 and Cover 3.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s thrown 11 touchdowns against Cover 0 and Cover 1, and the Cowboys don\u2019t play that hardly ever.<\/p>\n

Opposing quarterbacks have seen that on only 69 of 431 dropbacks (16%).<\/p>\n

The Cowboys do allow 2.18 touchdown passes per game, and five quarterbacks have had 3 or more touchdown passes.<\/p>\n

In each of the last three games, though, they\u2019ve allowed 2 touchdowns or fewer in each, including 1 in each of their last two.<\/p>\n

Mahomes himself has thrown 3 touchdowns or more in four of 11 games this season, but has just 1 passing touchdown over his last three games total.<\/p>\n

Additionally, tight end Travis<\/strong> Kelce<\/strong> leads the team with an 18.7% target share.<\/p>\n

With Rashee<\/strong> Rice<\/strong> on the field, he\u2019s second at 18.4%.<\/p>\n

The Cowboys defense is allowing just 0.27 touchdowns per game to tight ends, allowing just 3 all season.<\/p>\n

Also, keep in mind that the Cowboys now have Quinnen Williams<\/strong>, and other players like promising rookie cornerback Shavon Revel<\/strong> are continuing to get more involved with the defense.<\/p>\n

3 passing touchdowns are a lot for anyone.<\/p>\n

Yes, the Cowboys defense has been terrible, but they\u2019ve been playing a bit better recently, and this isn\u2019t exactly the most feared Chiefs offense we\u2019ve seen.<\/p>\n

Take the under.<\/p>\n

Thanksgiving Day Prop Prediction: Mark Andrews Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)<\/h2>\n

This line for Andrews may seem modest, but this season, he\u2019s only reached 40 yards or more once.<\/p>\n

Of course, a big part of that is that the team was without quarterback Lamar<\/strong> Jackson<\/strong> for several games.<\/p>\n

But that said, since Jackson came back against the Miami Dolphins, the highest he\u2019s hit is 32 yards.<\/p>\n

However, this is a fantastic spot for him.<\/p>\n

The Bengals are allowing 10.09 targets, 6.91 receptions, 87.45 receiving yards, and 1.18 touchdowns per game to tight ends.<\/p>\n

Those are the most in each respective category.<\/p>\n

This season, Andrews is second in target share at 16.7%.<\/p>\n

With Jackson on the field, he\u2019s still second at 16.9%.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s caught 22 of a possible 32 passes for 201 yards and 5 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s run a route on 69.6% of Jackson\u2019s dropbacks, which is notably higher than fellow tight end Isaiah Likely<\/strong>\u2019s 50.3%.<\/p>\n

Over the last three games, his target share is second on the team at 17.8%.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s caught 7 passes for 55 yards.<\/p>\n

Conversely, Likely is at a 13.7% target share, catching 5 passes for 42 yards.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also worth noting that the Bengals predominantly play Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Against that, Andrews has 10 receptions for 86 yards.<\/p>\n

Looking over each coverage this season, those receptions are tied for the most, and the yards are second.<\/p>\n

Something else to consider is that Joe<\/strong> Burrow<\/strong> will be back in the lineup for the Bengals.<\/p>\n

The defense will continue to be terrible, but Burrow has a great chance of making this game into a bit more of a shootout, which will bode well for Andrews.<\/p>\n

The production hasn\u2019t been there this season in terms of 40 yards or more, but this spot is too good to pass up.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We not only have Thanksgiving Day on Thursday but also […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":107817,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Thanksgiving Day","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for the 2025 NFL Thanksgiving Day slate, including Patrick Mahomes and Mark Andrews.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-117343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Mark-Andrews-RZ-Points-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117343","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117343"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117343\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117344,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117343\/revisions\/117344"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107817"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117343"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117343"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117343"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}