{"id":117983,"date":"2025-12-07T08:24:44","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T13:24:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=117983"},"modified":"2025-12-07T09:59:45","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T14:59:45","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-14-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-14-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 14"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Week 14 is here, and so too is the final week of bye weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Here, I\u2019ll look at the best prop bets for NFL Week 14, including a rookie quarterback.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 14 Prediction: Kirk Cousins Over 1+ INT (-108)<\/h2>\n<p>Heading into this game, the Seattle Seahawks are second in the NFL in interceptions with 13, averaging 1.08 per game.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019ve intercepted a pass in seven games this season, and last week they picked off 4 passes from Minnesota Vikings quarterback <strong>Max Brosmer<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>As for Cousins, he\u2019s made three starts this season and has 1 interception and 2 turnover-worthy plays.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, he hasn't been great under pressure in the last two seasons.<\/p>\n<p>Under pressure in that timeframe, he has a completion percentage of 51.9% with 5 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 15 turnover-worthy plays.<\/p>\n<p>The Seahawks are first in the NFL in pressures with 214.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, they\u2019re the only team with more than 200.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, let\u2019s examine how Cousins has performed against the coverages the Seahawks most often play: Cover 3 and Cover 6.<\/p>\n<p>Dating back to 2024, here are his numbers against these coverages:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Against Cover 3: 121 of 177 (68.4%) for 1,348 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.<\/li>\n<li>Against Cover 6: 28 of 36 (77.8%) for 279 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That\u2019s a combined line of 3 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions.<\/p>\n<p>So, he has a 0.4 TD\/INT ratio across 228 dropbacks.<\/p>\n<p>Not only that, but the Falcons are underdogs, so he\u2019ll be in a position to have to throw more.<\/p>\n<p>An interception is coming.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Week 14 Prediction: Chase Brown Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)<\/h2>\n<p>It\u2019s been a rough season for the Bengals overall, but one thing is for certain: Brown is the lead back in this offense, and it\u2019s not particularly close.<\/p>\n<p>Over the course of this season, he\u2019s received 73.7% of the running back carries.<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s also had 49 rushing yards or more in each of his last three games and in four of his last five.<\/p>\n<p>Opposing running backs are averaging 22.1 carries for 113.3 rushing yards, 5.1 yards per carry, and 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game against the Buffalo Bills.<\/p>\n<p>This has been a massive area of weakness for the AFC East squad, and Brown heads into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry or better in each of his last three games.<\/p>\n<p>The Bills have allowed 11 running backs to run for 49 yards or more, and of those, four have run for 106 yards or more.<\/p>\n<p>The Bengals are road underdogs, but in those situations, Brown has still gotten 70% of the Bengals\u2019 running back carries.<\/p>\n<p>In games where the Bengals are simply underdogs, he\u2019s run for 541 yards on 111 carries.<\/p>\n<p>Add in the road team qualifier, and he\u2019s still posted a respectable line of 62 carries for 262 yards (4.2 yards per carry).<\/p>\n<p>Sticking with that theme, Brown has run for 49 yards or more in each of his last two road games where the Bengals were underdogs.<\/p>\n<p>He ran 15 times for 78 yards against the Baltimore Ravens and 18 times for 99 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers.<\/p>\n<p>The Bengals called a run play just 41.3% of the time last week, but in a game like this, where you\u2019ll want to keep the Bills and quarterback <strong>Josh<\/strong> <strong>Allen<\/strong> off the field against a horrendous Bengals defense, running the ball with Brown against an extremely beatable run defense could be an excellent game plan.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 14 Prediction: Cam Ward Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+132)<\/h2>\n<p>As soon as I saw this prop had \u201c+\u201d odds, I immediately began investigating, and I\u2019m absolutely all in on this prop bet for Week 14.<\/p>\n<p>This season, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft has completed 246 of 412 passes (59.7%) for 2,351 yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.<\/p>\n<p>Now, this week, he\u2019ll take on a stout Browns defense that most plays Cover 1 and Cover 3.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how Ward has done against those:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Against Cover 1: 29 of 61 (47.5%) for 348 yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.<\/li>\n<li>Against Cover 3: 89 of 135 (65.9%) for 887 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>From there, I wanted to check in on how he does against pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Against pressure:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>48 of 118 (40.7%) for 598 yards, 5.1 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not only that, but he\u2019s had 0 touchdown passes in five games this season.<\/p>\n<p>While the Browns allow 1.42 passing touchdowns per game, there have been two games where the opposing quarterback hasn\u2019t thrown one.<\/p>\n<p>To be fair, though, it\u2019s not often quarterbacks have just 7 touchdown passes in Week 14.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers against pressure are concerning because over the last three weeks, the Browns have led the league in pressures with 58, and <strong>Myles Garrett<\/strong> is hunting the sack record.<\/p>\n<p>This doesn\u2019t mesh well for a Titans team that\u2019s seventh in pressures allowed with 177.<\/p>\n<p>Again, this is a tough Browns defense, and it wouldn\u2019t be at all shocking to see the Browns shut Ward down.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, I don\u2019t expect the Browns to have a big enough lead that would prompt throwing more than usual to attempt to keep up.<\/p>\n<p>At +132 odds, definitely take a chance.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week 14 is here, and so too is the final  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":97239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 14","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season, including Kirk Cousins and Chase 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