{"id":118075,"date":"2025-12-07T08:28:38","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T13:28:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=118075"},"modified":"2025-12-12T11:34:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T16:34:24","slug":"nfl-week-14-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-14-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions & Against The Spread Picks for Week 14"},"content":{"rendered":"

Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season is here!<\/p>\n

There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Dolphins against the Jets and the Browns facing the Titans.<\/p>\n

Week 14 Best Bet Prediction: Miami Dolphins Under 21.5 Points (-108)<\/h2>\n

To Mike McDaniel<\/strong>\u2019s credit, the Dolphins are playing hard for him and racking up wins, winning three straight contests and four of their past five after starting the year 1-6.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the offense has been inconsistent.<\/p>\n

It starts at the top with Tua<\/strong> Tagovailoa<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

According to Sumer Sports, among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps this year, Tagovailoa is tied with Tyrod Taylor<\/strong> in expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.01).<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unlikely Tua and Taylor will get into a shootout, suffice to say.<\/p>\n

Miami\u2019s offense as a whole is also below average.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re tied for 19th in EPA per play (-0.02) and 28th in success rate (41.22%).<\/p>\n

The Dolphins also have sizable home-road splits, as Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 14 Worksheet<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Miami is 27th in yards per play on the road (4.6) this season, versus seventh at home (5.9).<\/p>\n

The Dolphins are just 24th in scoring offense, averaging 20.6 points per game.<\/p>\n

Miami has scored fewer than 21.5 points in back-to-back games, three of their previous four, and four of their last six.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve gone under that number in three of five road games, averaging 18.6 points per game and a median of 21.<\/p>\n

The game\u2019s slight spread should also mean the clock runs constantly in this AFC East matchup on Sunday.<\/p>\n

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Dolphins are 29th in pass rate over expectations (-2.5% PROE) this season, and the Jets are tied for last (-5.3%).<\/p>\n

Moreover, the Dolphins have posted a -6.2% PROE since Week 9, while the Jets have posted an -8.1% PROE in that period.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, both teams should be content running the ball, and the setup isn\u2019t favorable for a high-scoring effort from either side.<\/p>\n

As a result, the Dolphins should go under 21.5 points this week.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Week 14 Best Bet Prediction: Tennessee Titans Under 14.5 Points (-110)<\/h2>\n

Let\u2019s start with the most significant threat to the Titans going under 14.5 points this week.<\/p>\n

Cleveland\u2019s offense is lousy, and its special teams were a train wreck last week.<\/p>\n

The 49ers scored 26 points in Week 13 in large part because of Cleveland\u2019s special teams miscues.<\/p>\n

The Browns surrendered a 66-yard punt return to Skyy<\/strong> Moore<\/strong>, Malachi<\/strong> Corley<\/strong> fielded a kickoff and went out of bounds at the five-yard line, and Gage Larvadain<\/strong> muffed a punt that the 49ers fielded on Cleveland\u2019s 18-yard line.<\/p>\n

Despite the margins being thin for such a low under, Cleveland\u2019s fierce defense should have no trouble bottling up the Titans.<\/p>\n

Cam Ward<\/strong> is 40th among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in EPA per play (-0.20).<\/p>\n

Among 39 quarterbacks with 150 dropbacks this season, Ward is 36th in Pro Football Focus\u2019s (PFF\u2019s) passing grade and 39th in pressure-to-sack rate (27.1 P2S%).<\/p>\n

Ward\u2019s inability to avoid taking sacks under pressure is a nightmare for a matchup against Myles<\/strong> Garrett<\/strong> and company.<\/p>\n

According to Pro Football Reference, the Browns are fifth in pressure rate (26.5%) and second in sacks (43).<\/p>\n

Circling back to Tennessee\u2019s offense, they\u2019re 31st in EPA per play (-0.20), 31st in success rate (36.64%), tied for last in yards per play (4.2), and 32nd in scoring offense (14.2 points per game).<\/p>\n

There is no positive way to frame Tennessee\u2019s offense this season.<\/p>\n

Conversely, the Browns have a superb defense, and it\u2019s especially lethal at home.<\/p>\n

According to Tru Media, the Browns have allowed only 4.4 yards per play, 99.7 rushing yards per game, 3.7 yards per rush, 157.3 passing yards per game, and 5.7 net yards per pass attempt at home this year, tallying an interception rate of 3.6% and sack rate of 12.4%.<\/p>\n

In five games at Huntington Bank Field this season, the Browns have held the Bengals to 17 points, the Packers to 10, the Dolphins to 6, the Ravens to 23, and the 49ers to 26.<\/p>\n

Thus, they\u2019ve allowed an average of 16.4 points per game with a median of 17 at home this year.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Titans have scored fewer than 14.5 points in seven of 12 games this year, including four of five games on the road.<\/p>\n

Tennessee has averaged 11.6 points per game on the road this year, with a median of 12.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not a tall task for the Browns to perform slightly better than their season-long average and median against a woeful offense such as the Titans, and Tennessee must merely be their usual dreadful selves to go under 14.5 points on Sunday.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season is here! There […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60832,"featured_media":108312,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions & Against The Spread Picks, Week 14","_seopress_titles_desc":"Josh Shepardson delivers the best bets for Week 14 of the NFL season. Against the spread picks and predictions as well as best game totals, over\/unders to bet.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-118075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-300x206.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-768x527.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-694x694.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tua-mike-mcdaniel-dolphins-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60832"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118075"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":118079,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118075\/revisions\/118079"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}