{"id":119140,"date":"2025-12-20T10:09:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T15:09:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119140"},"modified":"2025-12-20T11:27:35","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T16:27:35","slug":"best-bet-tulane-ole-miss-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-tulane-ole-miss-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Tulane vs. Ole Miss: College Football Playoff Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s dive into one of the playoff rematches and break down the matchup between Tulane and Ole Miss.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Tulane vs. Ole Miss, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss -17.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>Tulane at Ole Miss Best Bet Prediction:<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the first meeting, Ole Miss had covered this spread by halftime and won by 35, so let\u2019s bet on a similar outcome and <\/span><b>take Ole Miss against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Tulane vs. Ole Miss, best line: Ole Miss -17.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Ole Miss -17.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Tulane is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane typically leans on a pass-heavy approach, although that game plan did not go well in the first meeting between these teams in September.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Quarterbacks<\/span><b> Jake Retzlaff<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who was benched during the game, and <\/span><b>Brendan Sullivan <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">were under pressure on a season-high 52% of their dropbacks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We should probably expect a similar performance from the Ole Miss pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane: ranked 78th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss: ranked 19th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite those numbers, Retzlaff will likely be more competitive in this contest, improving upon his 5 for 17 performance in the first game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Retzlaff, a transfer from BYU, didn\u2019t enroll at Tulane until late July, and it took some time to learn his new offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a result, Retzlaff was primarily a running quarterback early this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Through his first four games at Tulane, he carried the ball 45 times, excluding sacks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 13 games at BYU in 2024, Retzlaff had just 80 carries, and finished with just 65 carries over his final nine games this season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now that Retzlaff is more comfortable in the offense, he\u2019s likely to handle Ole Miss\u2019 pressure more effectively.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For starters, no quarterback in this year\u2019s playoff field is better at avoiding sacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Retzlaff\u2019s 6.5% sack rate versus pressure is the sixth lowest in college football.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately for Tulane, the Ole Miss defense is still probably built to limit the Green Wave\u2019s passing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane uses a relatively pro-style offense in which Retzlaff takes a traditional dropback 59% of the time (ranked 32nd) and a quick dropback only 28% of the time (ranked 109th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So let\u2019s look at Ole Miss\u2019 defensive ranks by dropback type, via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traditional dropbacks: ranked 11th in yards per attempt allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Quick dropbacks: ranked 50th in yards per attempt allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even if Tulane shifted its approach to use more quick dropbacks, it might not have much success against the Ole Miss defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane only ranks 55th in yards per attempt on quick dropbacks (6.9), due to a lack of weapons who thrive after the catch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Green Wave\u2019s primary weapon on quick dropbacks, <\/span><b>Shazz Preston<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, only ranked 18th out of 30 qualified American Conference receivers in yards per reception on those plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the reasons why Retzlaff takes traditional dropbacks at a high rate is due to Tulane\u2019s desire to attack downfield.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, 26% of the Green Wave\u2019s pass attempts have been at least 15 yards downfield, the 27th-highest rate in the FBS.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is also a problematic approach when facing Ole Miss, which has allowed the sixth-lowest completion rate at that depth (29.6%).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane might have a better chance to be competitive against a shaky Ole Miss run defense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out these key opponent-adjusted numbers on the run game, via Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane: ranked 94th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss: ranked 118th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane: ranked 74th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss: ranked 59th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss\u2019 issue against the run is giving up untouched yardage, as it allows three or more yards before contact to running backs on 29% of attempts (ranked 94th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for Ole Miss, the second level tends to clean up those mistakes, and it has only allowed 10 or more untouched yards eight times all year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That means big plays on the ground are less likely, but it does leave the door open for Tulane to piece together some longer drives, which could limit possessions and help shorten the game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another red flag that needs to be addressed is Tulane\u2019s discipline problem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Green Wave have racked up an average of 65.9 penalty yards per game, ranked 124th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane also ranks 99th in red zone touchdown rate (56%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s hard to pull off an upset when you\u2019re prone to stubbing your toe in so many ways.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Ole Miss is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss runs a pass-heavy, spread offense that was primarily designed by <\/span><b>Lane Kiffin<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, who is now at LSU, but coordinator <\/span><b>Charlie Weis Jr. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">remains with the team and was heavily involved in play-calling the past few seasons.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For Tulane to slow down Ole Miss\u2019 passing attack, it will need to get pressure on <strong>Trinidad Chambliss<\/strong>, which might be possible based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss: ranked 10th in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane: ranked 9th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Ole Miss runs a fast-paced offense that focuses on getting the ball out quickly and letting its receivers make plays after the catch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss uses quick dropbacks 56% of the time (ranked 6th in the FBS) while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt on those plays (ranked 4th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s a problematic trend for Tulane, which is allowing 6.9 yards per attempt against quick dropbacks (ranked 87th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the first meeting, Ole Miss averaged 7.7 yards per attempt on quick dropbacks, though Tulane did record 1 sack on those plays.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although Ole Miss gets rid of the ball quickly and likes to attack shorter routes, it still attacks downfield at a high rate to keep defenses honest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, 27% of Ole Miss\u2019 throws have been at least 15 yards downfield, and Chambliss has completed 48% of those throws (ranked 29th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is another concerning trend for the Green Wave, who are allowing a 42% completion rate at that depth (ranked 70th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Things don\u2019t look any more promising for Tulane\u2019s defense in the run game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss: ranked 43rd in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane: ranked 14th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ole Miss: ranked 40th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tulane: ranked 75th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the Green Wave makes early contact at a relatively high rate, they struggle to bring down the ball carrier in the backfield.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When Tulane makes contact at or behind the line of scrimmage, it only stops the running back for zero or negative yards on 36% of those plays, ranked 99th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is a contributing factor to one of the most concerning big-picture stats for Tulane\u2019s defense: the Green Wave ranks 120th in third-and-long force rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Only 18% of opponents' sets of downs result in a third-and-long situation against the Green Wave.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s especially problematic against Ole Miss, which ranks 13th in third-and-long avoidance and also ranks 24th in third-and-long conversion rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the first meeting, Ole Miss converted 7 of 11 third-down attempts, in large part because only one was a third-and-long situation (an incomplete pass on third and eight).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Tulane can\u2019t force Ole Miss into tough down-and-distance situations, it\u2019s going to be tough to get off the field.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Ole Miss vs. Tulane Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There was nothing fluky about the outcome of the first meeting between these teams, so let\u2019s<\/span><b> take Ole Miss against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The departure of Kiffin might have an impact in a more competitive game, but since Ole Miss holds a clear edge in both the pass and run games, it\u2019s hard to imagine that Kiffin's lack of input on play calling will have a noticeable effect against Tulane.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":119176,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Tulane vs. Ole Miss: College Football Playoff Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Ole Miss vs. Tulane when betting against the spread, breaking down the College Football Playoff matchup.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-119140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trinidad-Chambliss-CFP-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119140"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119177,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119140\/revisions\/119177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}