According to StatHead, in 17 road games, Nix has a 64.3% completion rate, 3,396 passing yards (199.8 per game), 5.56 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY\/A), 20 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 4.19% sack rate, a 41.8% success rate, and an 87.1 quarterback rating.<\/p>\n
Conversely, in 15 home games, Nix has a 65.3% completion rate, 3,779 yards (251.9 per game), a 6.82 ANY\/A, 33 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, a 3.15% sack rate, and a 96.6 quarterback rating.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Trevor<\/strong> Lawrence<\/strong> hasn\u2019t performed as well on the road as at home this season.<\/p>\n T-Law has tallied 237.8 passing yards per game, 13 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 1 fumble lost, and a 90.1 quarterback rating in eight home games.<\/p>\n He has logged 218 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and an 84.7 quarterback rating in six road tilts.<\/p>\n Lawrence will be greeted by a fearsome defense in Denver this week.<\/p>\n According to Sumer Sports, the Broncos are eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.07), tied for sixth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.08), 12th in EPA allowed per rush (-0.05), and second in success rate allowed (37.53%).<\/p>\n The Jaguars also have a talented defense, ranking fourth in EPA allowed per play (-0.09) and eighth in success rate allowed (41.60%).<\/p>\n However, they haven\u2019t done as well at keeping teams off the scoreboard on the road as at home.<\/p>\n Jacksonville has coughed up 144 points (24 per game) in six road games this year, yielding a median of 26.5.<\/p>\n The Jags are 4-2 on the road, with wins against the Titans, 49ers, Cardinals, and Raiders and losses by 4 points to the Bengals in Week 2 and 7 points to the Davis<\/strong> Mills<\/strong>-led Texans in Week 10.<\/p>\n The Broncos are monsters at home.<\/p>\n As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Worksheet<\/a>, Denver is the final unbeaten team at home this season with a 7-0 record.<\/p>\n Only one of their victories was by fewer than 3 points this year.<\/p>\n The Broncos should be able to take advantage of their friendly home confines and beat the Jaguars by more than 3 points this week.<\/p>\n\t The Lions have a wagon for an offense.<\/p>\n Detroit is fourth in EPA per play (0.11), tied for fourth in EPA per pass (0.19), tied for 10th in EPA per rush (0), and 11th in success rate (45.10%).<\/p>\n Additionally, according to Pro Football Reference, the Lions are tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and first in scoring offense (30.6).<\/p>\n Detroit has kicked its scoring up a notch at home.<\/p>\n Per StatHead, they\u2019ve scored 236 points (33.7 per game) in seven home games, with a median of 34.<\/p>\n The Lions have cleared 30.5 points in four home games this season.<\/p>\n Unsurprisingly, Jared<\/strong> Goff<\/strong> has balled out at home.<\/p>\n He has a 70.4% completion rate, 267.3 passing yards per game, 8.00 ANY\/A, 15 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a 112.5 quarterback rating in seven home games.<\/p>\n Goff\u2019s life will likely be easier this week than facing a fully stocked defense for the Steelers.<\/p>\n T.J. Watt<\/strong> and Nick Herbig<\/strong> haven\u2019t practiced for Week 16.<\/p>\n They\u2019re Pittsburgh\u2019s best pass rushers.<\/p>\n The Steelers also have substantial on-off splits with Watt, allowing a 70.9% completion rate (31st), a league-high 8.7 yards per attempt, and a 5.5% touchdown rate (20th) with Watt off the field, per Rich\u2019s research in the Week 16 Fantasy Football Worksheet<\/a>.<\/p>\n Derrick Harmon<\/strong> is trending toward returning this week after logging full practices on Wednesday and Thursday.<\/p>\n He\u2019ll help Pittsburgh\u2019s run defense, which could embolden Dan<\/strong> Campbell<\/strong> to dial up the pass more often, a development that would be ideal for Detroit\u2019s scoring outlook.<\/p>\n Detroit\u2019s injury-ravaged defense could also force the offense to keep pouring it on as well.<\/p>\n The Lions have allowed four consecutive opponents to score at least 27 points, and five of their last seven opponents have tallied at least 27 points.<\/p>\n Detroit\u2019s lethal offense on the other side of their leaky defense against a potentially Watt-less and Herbig-less Steelers defense is a recipe for the Lions to score more than 30.5 points this week.<\/p>\n\t![\"Sharp](\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\")
\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\nWeek 16 Best Bet Prediction: Detroit Lions Over 30.5 Points (-105)<\/h2>\n