{"id":119252,"date":"2025-12-21T07:35:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-21T12:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119252"},"modified":"2026-01-07T11:48:02","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T16:48:02","slug":"nfl-week-16-passing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-16-passing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Passing Yards Odds: Best Bets &#038; Predictions for Week 16"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, <strong>Kirk Cousins<\/strong> turned back the clock and threw for 373 yards on Thursday Night Football to lead all quarterbacks in Week 15 passing yards.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Matthew Stafford<\/strong> led all Sunday quarterbacks in passing yards, edging out <strong>Jared<\/strong> <strong>Goff<\/strong> in a game that jumped off the page for quarterback passing.<\/p>\n<p>Sharp subscribers were given Stafford passing overs, and the article selected Goff as the weekly leader, as the game had an ideal setup for a back-and-forth passing shootout.<\/p>\n<p>The article selected Goff based on the opinion that the Lions, as touchdown underdogs, would likely trail and have to chase the game.<\/p>\n<p>However, it was the Lions that jumped out to an early lead, propelling Stafford to 246 passing yards in the second and third quarters.<\/p>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='118107' id='jtrt_table_settings_118107' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Wild Card Round NFL Odds\"],[\"<a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/betting\\\/nfl-wild-card-round-passing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\\\/\\\">NFL Passing Leader Odds<\\\/a>\"],[\"<a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/betting\\\/nfl-wild-card-round-receiving-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\\\/\\\">NFL Receiving Leader Odds<\\\/a>\"],[\"<a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/betting\\\/nfl-wild-card-round-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\\\/\\\">NFL Rushing Leader Odds<\\\/a>\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":3,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='118107' id='jtrt_table_bps_118107' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_118107' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='118107' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Wild Card Round NFL Odds<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-wild-card-round-passing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/\">NFL Passing Leader Odds<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-wild-card-round-receiving-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/\">NFL Receiving Leader Odds<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-wild-card-round-rushing-yards-odds-predictions-best-bets-longshots-2025\/\">NFL Rushing Leader Odds<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n<p>Gamestate continues to be the most important storyline for peak passing outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>Outlier performances come from games that go right down to the wire or teams that fall behind early.<\/p>\n<p>Through 15 weeks of the season, eight of the weekly passing yardage leaders have been involved in a game with a lead change in the final two minutes, and six quarterbacks were trailing at halftime.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jared Goff<\/strong> and the Lions offense scoring 42 points and winning by 3 touchdowns was the outlier.<\/p>\n<p>Game state continues to be very important as teams that jump out to early leads have lower passing volume in the later stages of the game, despite high efficiency.<\/p>\n<p>Sunday features a smaller slate, and all but two games are lined within a touchdown or less, giving plenty of options to chase for most passing yards.<\/p>\n<p>Both Jaguars-Broncos and Patriots-Ravens provide plenty of intrigue amongst teams fighting for playoff games, and the Falcons-Cardinals game has shootout potential.<\/p>\n<h3>NFL Weekly Passing Leaders, 2025:<\/h3>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='111719' id='jtrt_table_settings_111719' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Week\",\"Quarterback\",\"Passing Yards\",\"Opponent\",\"Final Score\"],[\"1\",\"Josh Allen\",\"394\",\"Baltimore Ravens\",\"41-40\"],[\"2\",\"Russell Wilson\",\"450\",\"Dallas Cowboys\",\"37-40\"],[\"3\",\"Justin Herbert\",\"300\",\"Denver Broncos\",\"23-20\"],[\"4\",\"Matthew Stafford\",\"375\",\"Indianapolis Colts\",\"27-20\"],[\"5\",\"Matthew Stafford\",\"389\",\"San Francisco 49ers\",\"23-26\"],[\"6\",\"Mac Jones\",\"347\",\"Tampa Bay Bucs\",\"19-30\"],[\"7\",\"Justin Herbert\",\"420\",\"Indianapolis Colts\",\"24-38\"],[\"8\",\"Jordan Love\",\"360\",\"Pittsburgh Steelers\",\"35-25\"],[\"9\",\"Joe Flacco\",\"470\",\"Chicago Bears\",\"42-47\"],[\"10\",\"Jared Goff\",\"320\",\"Washington Commanders\",\"44-22\"],[\"11\",\"Jacoby Brissett\",\"452\",\"San Francisco 49ers\",\"22-41\"],[\"12\",\"Jameis Winston\",\"366\",\"Detroit 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data-jtrt-table-id='111719' id='jtrt_table_bps_111719' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_111719' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='111719' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Week<\/th><th>Quarterback<\/th><th>Passing Yards<\/th><th>Opponent<\/th><th>Final Score<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1<\/td><td>Josh Allen<\/td><td>394<\/td><td>Baltimore Ravens<\/td><td>41-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2<\/td><td>Russell Wilson<\/td><td>450<\/td><td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td><td>37-40<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3<\/td><td>Justin Herbert<\/td><td>300<\/td><td>Denver Broncos<\/td><td>23-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4<\/td><td>Matthew Stafford<\/td><td>375<\/td><td>Indianapolis Colts<\/td><td>27-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5<\/td><td>Matthew Stafford<\/td><td>389<\/td><td>San Francisco 49ers<\/td><td>23-26<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6<\/td><td>Mac Jones<\/td><td>347<\/td><td>Tampa Bay Bucs<\/td><td>19-30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7<\/td><td>Justin Herbert<\/td><td>420<\/td><td>Indianapolis Colts<\/td><td>24-38<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>8<\/td><td>Jordan Love<\/td><td>360<\/td><td>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/td><td>35-25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9<\/td><td>Joe Flacco<\/td><td>470<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><td>42-47<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10<\/td><td>Jared Goff<\/td><td>320<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><td>44-22<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11<\/td><td>Jacoby Brissett<\/td><td>452<\/td><td>San Francisco 49ers<\/td><td>22-41<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12<\/td><td>Jameis Winston<\/td><td>366<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><td>27-34<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>13<\/td><td>Bo Nix<\/td><td>321<\/td><td>Washington Commanders<\/td><td>27-26<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>14<\/td><td>Dak Prescott<\/td><td>376<\/td><td>Detroit Lions<\/td><td>30-44<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15<\/td><td>Kirk Cousins<\/td><td>373<\/td><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/td><td>29-28<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>16<\/td><td>Matthew Stafford<\/td><td>457<\/td><td>Seattle Seahawks<\/td><td>37-38<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>17<\/td><td>Baker Mayfield<\/td><td>346<\/td><td>Miami Dolphins<\/td><td>17-20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>18<\/td><td>Jared Goff<\/td><td>331<\/td><td>Chicago Bears<\/td><td>19-16<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Most Week 16 Passing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Baker Mayfield (+1700)<\/h2>\n<p>It\u2019s not a coincidence that Mayfield had his best game in terms of yardage and efficiency over the past two months the moment that <strong>Mike Evans<\/strong> returned to the lineup.<\/p>\n<p>Mayfield is undervalued this week given the importance of this game for both teams and the fact that his receiver room is back to full health, as even <strong>Jalen McMillan<\/strong> contributed last week.<\/p>\n<p>The Buccaneers are a pass funnel, which forced <strong>Dave Canales<\/strong> to pivot from his run-heavy approach last season.<\/p>\n<p>If the same happens this year, Mayfield\u2019s ceiling is elevated.<\/p>\n<p>Young had 46 pass attempts against the Buccaneers in the first matchup last season.<\/p>\n<p>That matchup between the Buccaneers and Panthers had 145 combined plays.<\/p>\n<p>That was the most of any game in Canales' tenure as the Panthers head coach and 22.5 more plays than the average Panther game over the last two seasons.<\/p>\n<p>The Panthers are allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt and are 23rd in EPA per pass.<\/p>\n<p>Mayfield had 359 passing yards against this defense in the second meeting last season.<\/p>\n<p>Mayfield ran for 68 yards in his last game, his highest total of the season, implying he is slightly healthier and has extra rest.<\/p>\n<p>That is a boost for a quarterback dealing with season long injuries.<\/p>\n<p>This game should remain competitive, which is critical for a passing ceiling.<\/p>\n<p>Both teams could turn to the passing game more than expected, which would bump play volume and shootout potential.<\/p>\n<p>On a shorter slate, with less of a high-end outcome needed to take down the passing total, chasing a longer shot makes some sense this week.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 16 Passing Yards Longshot Bet: Trevor Lawrence & Bo Nix Combined Passing Yards (DraftKings)<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>475+ Combined Passing Yards (+104)<\/li>\n<li>525+ Combined Passing Yards (+243)<\/li>\n<li>575+ Combined Passing Yards (+575)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Just as everyone predicted at the beginning of the season, this matchup features division leaders who have combined for 22 wins up to this point in the season.<\/p>\n<p>The Jaguars and Broncos defenses are both top-six in rushing DVOA, setting up a potential pass-heavy game between Lawrence and Nix.<\/p>\n<p>The Jaguars rank second in defensive rush success rate, and the Broncos have struggled to run since losing <strong>J.K. Dobbins<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Both the Jaguars and Broncos have leaned pass-heavy over the past few weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Nix has averaged 38.5 pass attempts over the past month, and the Broncos have passed 6% over expectation over that span.<\/p>\n<p>A game against the pass-funnel Jaguars provides a ceiling opportunity for Nix.<\/p>\n<p>The Jaguars passed 9% over expectation last week as <strong>Trevor<\/strong> <strong>Lawrence<\/strong> had 5 passing touchdowns against the Jets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Travis Etienne<\/strong> has averaged 3.0 yards per rush over the past three weeks, which could push the Jaguars to lean on the pass against the Broncos.<\/p>\n<p>With both teams potentially leaning on the pass, play volume would increase, helping out both quarterbacks' passing totals.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, Kirk Cousins turned back the clock and threw  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29329,"featured_media":107471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Passing Yards Odds: Best Bets & Predictions for Week 16","_seopress_titles_desc":"Get our expert analysis and top picks for the NFL's passing yards leader in Week 16. We break down the odds, matchups, and sleeper bets for Week 16.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-119252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Baker-Mayfield-2025-Under-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119252","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29329"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119252"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119252\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":120217,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119252\/revisions\/120217"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119252"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119252"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119252"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}