{"id":119582,"date":"2025-12-25T08:45:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-25T13:45:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119582"},"modified":"2025-12-25T09:08:44","modified_gmt":"2025-12-25T14:08:44","slug":"nfl-christmas-day-week-17-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-christmas-day-week-17-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions &#038; Against The Spread Picks for Christmas Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The NFL Christmas Day slate is here!<\/p>\n<p>There are great matchups throughout the day, but let's focus on the Commanders against the Cowboys and the Vikings facing the Lions.<\/p>\n<h2>Christmas Day Best Bet Prediction: Washington Commanders Under 21.5 Points (-120)<\/h2>\n<p>The Commanders are banged up.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jayden<\/strong> <strong>Daniels<\/strong> has been shut down for the rest of the year, and <strong>Marcus<\/strong> <strong>Mariota<\/strong> hasn\u2019t practiced this week after getting stitches in his hand.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Josh<\/strong> <strong>Johnson<\/strong> relieved Mariota last week against the Eagles, and he\u2019s in line to start if Mariota is ruled out.<\/p>\n<p>The organization also signed <strong>Jeff<\/strong> <strong>Driskel<\/strong> off the Cardinals practice squad, which could be interpreted as a sign that they don\u2019t anticipate having Mariota available this week.<\/p>\n<p>The injuries don\u2019t stop at the quarterback position, either.<\/p>\n<p>Starting OG <strong>Sam<\/strong> <strong>Cosmi<\/strong> was placed on the injured reserve. Starting LT <strong>Laremy<\/strong> <strong>Tunsil<\/strong> was out last week, and he\u2019s started the week with two missed practices.<\/p>\n<p>As a cherry on top, talented punt returner <strong>Jaylin<\/strong> <strong>Lane<\/strong> was also placed on the IR.<\/p>\n<p>Lane has two punt returns for touchdowns on 23 punt returns in his rookie season, which shouldn\u2019t be entirely overlooked for Washington\u2019s scoring outlook this week.<\/p>\n<p>According to Sumer Sports, among 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this year, Mariota is tied for 25th in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.01).<\/p>\n<p>Johnson has -0.48 EPA per play on 11 plays this year, and the 39-year-old quarterback last saw extensive action in 2021, when he attempted 45 passes for the Jets and 40 for the Ravens.<\/p>\n<p>According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), on 458 career dropbacks dating back to 2009, Johnson has 12 big-time throws (3.0 BTT%), 17 turnover-worthy plays (3.5 TWP%), a 57.9% completion rate, and 6.4 yards per pass attempt.<\/p>\n<p>In Johnson\u2019s nine career starts, his teams have never scored more than 21 points.<\/p>\n<p>The Commanders scored only 18 points against the Eagles last week.<\/p>\n<p>So, even if Mariota can suit up through his hand injury, he\u2019ll be doing so behind a banged-up offensive line after a clunker performance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Quinnen<\/strong> <strong>Williams<\/strong> has been estimated as limited in practice through Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>If he plays, the Commanders are unlikely to find much success by pivoting to a run-heavy approach.<\/p>\n<p>Williams made his debut with the Cowboys in Week 11.<\/p>\n<p>According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Cowboys have faced an 8.1% pass rate over expectations (PROE) since Week 11, the second-highest mark in the league.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, they\u2019ve allowed only 91.2 rushing yards per game (27th), 4.02 yards per carry (tied for 22nd), and a 46.3% success rate (24th) during that period.<\/p>\n<p>The Commanders are ill-equipped to exploit Dallas\u2019s leaky secondary.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, they\u2019ll likely go under 21.5 points on Christmas.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Christmas Day Best Bet Prediction: Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Under 43.5 Points (-110)<\/h2>\n<p>The Lions lost a heartbreaking shootout last week to the Steelers, and the Vikings won a low-scoring slugfest against the lowly Giants in Week 16.<\/p>\n<p>Detroit\u2019s injury-ravaged defense woke up Pittsburgh\u2019s offense, but the penetrable force of their defense will meet the dull knight of a <strong>Max Brosmer<\/strong>-led offense.<\/p>\n<p>Among 51 quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season, Brosmer is dead last in EPA per play (-0.66).<\/p>\n<p>He was a trainwreck against the Seahawks in his only career start.<\/p>\n<p>Among 51 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Brosmer is also PFF\u2019s lowest-graded passer, and he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate (7.5).<\/p>\n<p>Drawing the Seahawks in Seattle for his first start was brutal, but he\u2019s also an undrafted rookie from this year\u2019s NFL Draft class.<\/p>\n<p>Brosmer\u2019s second start comes against a less imposing defense, but it will be behind an offensive line without <strong>Christian<\/strong> <strong>Darrisaw<\/strong> and <strong>Ryan<\/strong> <strong>Kelly<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The Vikings will also likely be without <strong>Jordan<\/strong> <strong>Mason<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Mason injured his ankle early last week, and he hasn\u2019t practiced this week.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aaron<\/strong> <strong>Jones<\/strong> also tweaked his ankle against the Giants, but he was able to play through the issue and logged 21 carries, 85 rushing yards, 3 targets, 2 receptions, and 8 receiving yards.<\/p>\n<p>Jones' ability to handle a hefty workload last week and opening the week with two limited practice participation estimates bode well for his availability this week.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, among 59 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Jones is 27th in yards per carry (4.34), 20th in explosive run rate (4.4%), 25th in success rate (51.8%), and 25th in stuff rate (43.0%).<\/p>\n<p>Overloading Jones with a bell-cow workload on an ankle at less than 100% is unlikely to produce impressive production.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kevin<\/strong> <strong>O\u2019Connell<\/strong>\u2019s options are to lean into Brosmer\u2019s arm or lean on a backfield without Mason and with Jones at less than 100%, and either will be done behind an offensive line without Darrisaw and Kelly. Yuck.<\/p>\n<p>The Lions should have some success on Christmas.<\/p>\n<p>According to StatHead, in five starts against the <strong>Brian<\/strong> <strong>Flores<\/strong>-led Vikings defenses since 2023, <strong>Jared<\/strong> <strong>Goff<\/strong> has recorded a 76.0% completion rate, 1,372 passing yards, 7.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, 8 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 110.7 quarterback rating.<\/p>\n<p>Goff\u2019s previous success against Flores is an interesting data point for Detroit\u2019s scoring potential.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/lions-vikings-week-17-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/\">Rich Hribar pointed out in the Week 17 Fantasy Football Worksheet<\/a>, Goff was pressured on 42.9% of his dropbacks against the Vikings earlier this year.<\/p>\n<p>The Lions have injuries along the offensive line.<\/p>\n<p>Without <strong>Graham<\/strong> <strong>Glasnow<\/strong>, <strong>Christian<\/strong> <strong>Mahogany<\/strong>, and <strong>Taylor Decker<\/strong> in Week 16 against the Steelers, who were without <strong>T.J. Watt<\/strong> and <strong>Nick Herbig<\/strong>, Goff was pressured on 38.6% of his dropbacks.<\/p>\n<p>The Lions didn\u2019t practice on Monday or Tuesday, but Glasnow was projected as a full participant on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Mahogany and Decker were listed as limited participants on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Any of their returns would help Detroit\u2019s offense, but it remains to be seen who will be healthy along their offensive line.<\/p>\n<p>One way <strong>Dan<\/strong> <strong>Campbell<\/strong> could mitigate pressure on Goff is to lean on the running game.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, Detroit\u2019s rushing attack has been boom-or-bust lately.<\/p>\n<p>Since Week 12, the Lions are 20th in rushing yards per game (110.0), second in explosive run rate (7.7%), 27th in success rate (46.2%), and 28th in stuff rate (48.5%).<\/p>\n<p>There are nits to pick on Detroit\u2019s offense against an aggressive defense.<\/p>\n<p>The blemishes are enough to question whether the Lions can light up the scoreboard against Flores\u2019s aggressive defense, and they\u2019d likely need to do the heavy lifting opposite the Brosmer-led Vikings to exceed the game\u2019s total of 43.5 points.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, 43.5 points is probably a bar too high for the Lions and Vikings to clear on Thursday.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The NFL Christmas Day slate is here! There are great  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60832,"featured_media":113163,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions & Against The Spread Picks for Christmas Day","_seopress_titles_desc":"Josh Shepardson delivers the best bets for the Christmas Day slate of the NFL season. Against the spread picks and predictions as well as best game totals, over\/unders to bet.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-119582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-300x202.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-768x516.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-694x688.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Jared-Goff-Week-6-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60832"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119582"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119582\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119583,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119582\/revisions\/119583"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}