{"id":119585,"date":"2025-12-25T08:45:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-25T13:45:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119585"},"modified":"2025-12-25T09:08:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-25T14:08:37","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-christmas-week-17-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-christmas-week-17-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Christmas Day"},"content":{"rendered":"

Week 17 of the NFL season is here, and to kick things off on Thursday, which is also Christmas Day, we have three games: the Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, and the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos.<\/p>\n

Below, I\u2019ll provide a prop bet for each Christmas Day game.<\/p>\n

Christmas Day Prediction: Javonte Williams Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-113)<\/h2>\n

While Williams has run for 76 yards or more in nine of 15 games this season, there are a few angles to consider here.<\/p>\n

First, Williams is a free agent after this season.<\/p>\n

Now, this could mean that the Cowboys could squeeze every last snap out of him, but I tend to believe they\u2019ll want to see more of what they have in a player like Malik<\/strong> Davis<\/strong>, who\u2019s also a free agent, albeit a restricted one after this season or perhaps keep Williams healthy and sign him to an extension to lead this backfield next season.<\/p>\n

After all, the Cowboys\u2019 season is over after Week 18, so why push it?<\/p>\n

Another consideration is contract incentives.<\/p>\n

Williams had contract incentives for 1,250 total yards and 12 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s hit both of those, earning himself an extra $500,000.<\/p>\n

So, when you consider that, along with the fact that he suffered a neck injury and came out of the Cowboys\u2019 Week 16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, I question what kind of usage he\u2019ll have.<\/p>\n

The matchup, though, is great.<\/p>\n

The Commanders allow 24.3 carries, 113.5 rushing yards (4.7 yards per carry), and 0.93 touchdowns per game.<\/p>\n

When we get this late in the season, there are other real-life implications to keep in mind beyond just what the stats show.<\/p>\n

If Williams plays \u2014 he\u2019s been limited in practice this week \u2014 I believe we could see closer to a 50\/50 split between him and Davis, along with Hunter Luepke<\/strong> factored in.<\/p>\n

As a result of those fewer snaps and carries, Williams will finish with 75 yards or fewer.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Christmas Day Prediction: Max Brosmer Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-225)<\/h2>\n

The last time we saw Brosmer start was on the road in Week 13 against the Seattle Seahawks.<\/p>\n

He had a terrible outing, completing 19 of 30 passes for 126 yards, no touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.<\/p>\n

Of course, back at home, he\u2019ll face a Lions defense that\u2019s certainly not as good as the Seahawks, allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, but I still think this will be a tough matchup.<\/p>\n

The Lions are allowing 1.87 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks.<\/p>\n

Still, two of the last three, which include Aaron<\/strong> Rodgers<\/strong> (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Dak Prescott<\/strong> (Cowboys), have finished with 1 passing touchdown.<\/p>\n

Coverage-wise, the Lions primarily play Cover 1 and Cover 3.<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s a small sample size, on 29 dropbacks, Brosmer is 15 of 26 (57.7%) against those for 122 yards (4.7 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.<\/p>\n

The Lions' defense has certainly been flailing the last few weeks, but they do have 3 interceptions over their last three games.<\/p>\n

Additionally, they have 211 pressures (10th) and are facing a Vikings offensive line that\u2019s allowed 51 sacks (3rd) and 204 pressures (tied for 11th).<\/p>\n

It\u2019s important to remember that Brosmer was an undrafted free agent.<\/p>\n

These are meaningful reps for his development, no doubt, but right now, we\u2019ll take advantage of a player prop point of view and take the under on 1.5 passing touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Christmas Day Prediction: Kareem Hunt Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-155)<\/h2>\n

To round things out, I\u2019m looking toward one of the Chiefs running backs.<\/p>\n

Hunt has a couple of notable contract incentives:<\/p>\n