{"id":119649,"date":"2025-12-28T08:30:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-28T13:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119649"},"modified":"2025-12-28T11:00:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-28T16:00:37","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-17-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-17-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 17"},"content":{"rendered":"

With three games on Christmas Day in the rear-view mirror, we now have two games on Saturday, 10 on Sunday, and one on Monday to look forward to.<\/p>\n

On Christmas Day, I also provided three prop bets and got all three correct, so let\u2019s hope to keep the streak alive.<\/p>\n

Below, I\u2019ll provide my three best prop bets for the remainder of the slate.<\/p>\n

Week 17 Prediction: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+146)<\/h2>\n

As you likely know by now, Allen can be somewhat unpredictable when it comes to his passing performances.<\/p>\n

We all know he\u2019s a more than capable passer.<\/p>\n

Still, he can have a game like last week, where he attempts just 19 passes, averages 6.8 yards per attempt, and has no touchdowns or interceptions<\/p>\n

Of course, there are other times where he\u2019ll complete 22 of 28 passes for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns, as he did against the Cincinnati Bengals.<\/p>\n

That said, in this spot, getting a +146 value is worth a shot.<\/p>\n

Allen didn\u2019t have a passing touchdown last week, but he had three in back-to-back games before that and has had multiple touchdown passes in nine of 15 games.<\/p>\n

Yes, he\u2019s facing an Eagles defense that\u2019s allowing the fewest passing touchdowns per game at 0.87.<\/p>\n

So why this spot?<\/p>\n

Well, if you look at who the Eagles have played, you can start to pick apart some of those opponents.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in three games: Matthew<\/strong> Stafford<\/strong>, Baker Mayfield<\/strong> earlier in the season, and Dak<\/strong> Prescott<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Over their last four games, they\u2019ve played a tandem of Josh<\/strong> Johnson<\/strong> and Marcus<\/strong> Mariota<\/strong>, Kenny<\/strong> Pickett<\/strong>, Justin<\/strong> Herbert<\/strong> fresh off surgery, and Caleb<\/strong> Williams<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Williams has made some highlight reel throws, but he\u2019s another quarterback who\u2019s been up and down regarding passing touchdowns<\/p>\n

Regardless, the Bears won that game by 9 points and had a lead throughout, so throwing wasn\u2019t as necessary.<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s dive into some numbers.<\/p>\n

The Eagles play Cover 3 more than anything else, but Cover 1 and Cover 6 have been seen by opposing quarterbacks on 126 of their dropbacks or more.<\/p>\n

Against those three coverages, Allen has completed 198 of 292 passes (67.8%) for 2,377 yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.<\/p>\n

He has 25 passing touchdowns on the season, so that\u2019s nearly half of his passing touchdown production.<\/p>\n

That said, when you look more into the numbers, you\u2019ll find that he\u2019s only attempted 29 passes against Cover 6 all season and has just 1 passing touchdown, but has completed 72.4% of those passes.<\/p>\n

Something else worth pointing out: In seven home games, Allen has multiple touchdown passes in six of them.<\/p>\n

He plays well at home, and I believe he\u2019ll do much better against this Eagles pass defense than most would expect.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Week 17 Prediction: C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-170)<\/h2>\n

We covered one AFC quarterback, and now we\u2019ll look at another, but this time, I\u2019m going under on the passing touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Stroud has multiple touchdown passes in only four of 12 games this season, and he\u2019s facing a Chargers defense that allows the second-fewest passing touchdowns per game at 0.93.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve allowed three quarterbacks to have multiple touchdown passes against them.<\/p>\n

Those quarterbacks were Daniel<\/strong> Jones<\/strong> when he was red-hot earlier in the season, Prescott, and Geno<\/strong> Smith<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Smith may seem like an outlier, and he is, but honestly, some oddities tend to occur with divisional matchups.<\/p>\n

Still, it\u2019s worth noting, as I\u2019d say Stroud is objectively a better passer and quarterback than Smith.<\/p>\n

That aside, the numbers don\u2019t lie: Stroud struggles against the coverages the Chargers most often play, which are Cover 3 and Cover 4.<\/p>\n

Against these, Stroud has completed 107 of 164 passes (65.2%) for 1,148 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.<\/p>\n

That amounts to close to 44% of his passing yardage production, but just 12.5% of his passing touchdowns.<\/p>\n

In fact, he hasn\u2019t thrown a touchdown pass against either coverage since Week 3, which was more than 123 pass attempts ago.<\/p>\n

The Chargers have been scoring some points lately, which could put the Texans in a position to have to throw more, but over the course of the season, their average scoring margin is just +3.2.<\/p>\n

So, game plan-wise, the Texans could simply try to run the ball, play strong defense, and try to grit out a low-scoring contest.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see Stroud throwing multiple touchdown passes in this spot.<\/p>\n

Week 17 Prediction: Tre Harris Over 1.5 Receptions (-155)<\/h2>\n

To close things out, I\u2019m sticking with the Chargers-Texans game and taking the over on the Chargers\u2019 rookie receivers' receptions.<\/p>\n

Over their last four games, Harris is third on the team in target share at 16.3%, catching 11 of 16 passes for 151 yards.<\/p>\n

He trails only Keenan<\/strong> Allen<\/strong> and Quentin Johnston<\/strong>, who are barely ahead of him, both at 20.4%.<\/p>\n

Over the last two games, he\u2019s second at 18.5%, catching 7 of 10 passes for 103 yards.<\/p>\n

His target share has actually been higher than Ladd McConkey<\/strong>‘s.<\/p>\n

Harris has had 2 catches or more in eight of his last 10 games.<\/p>\n

While the Texans defense is one of the best Herbert and the Chargers will face all season, Harris has been getting more involved.<\/p>\n

As the Chargers gear up for a playoff run, getting a downfield threat more intertwined with the offense will only be helpful.<\/p>\n

Take the over on 1.5 catches.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With three games on Christmas Day in the rear-view mirror, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":118145,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 17","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season, including Philip Rivers and Quinn Ewers.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-119649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Josh-Allen-Week-14-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119649"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119649\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119651,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119649\/revisions\/119651"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}