{"id":119725,"date":"2025-12-31T15:40:44","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T20:40:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119725"},"modified":"2026-01-02T10:43:27","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T15:43:27","slug":"best-bet-miami-ohio-state-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/best-bet-miami-ohio-state-betting-picks-college-football-playoff-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Miami vs. Ohio State: College Football Playoff Betting Pick &#038; Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s dive into the Cotton Bowl matchup between Miami and Ohio State.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Miami vs. Ohio State, current line:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State -7.5 at Novig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Miami vs. Ohio State Best Bet Prediction:<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Buckeyes offense is likely too talented for Miami to keep pace, so <\/span><b>take Ohio State against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Miami vs. Ohio State, best line: Ohio State -7.5<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>\u00bb<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/novig.onelink.me\/JHQQ\/m02yw1et\"> <b>Bet it now at Novig: Miami -7.5 points<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Miami is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami runs a conservative but pass-heavy offense under coordinator <strong>Shannon Dawson<\/strong>, relying on <\/span><b>Carson Beck<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s ability to distribute the ball efficiently on underneath routes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, we just saw <\/span><b>Mark Fletcher<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and Miami dominate Texas A&M with the ground game, so let\u2019s start by dissecting that area of the Hurricane offense in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fletcher\u2019s performance against the Aggies defense came as no surprise, as A&M can\u2019t tackle and was routinely gashed on the ground by the few good teams it faced this year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Texas A&M ranked 129th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed entering that first-round matchup \u4e00 Ohio State ranks fourth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami is also unlikely to find many open lanes in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.sisdatahub.com\/cfb\/Leaders\/Players#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sports Info Solutions<\/a>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami: ranked 85th in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State: ranked 32nd in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State\u2019s defense also ranks eighth in explosive rush rate allowed, whereas Texas A&M ranks 124th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So the Canes will likely need to rely on Beck and the passing attack to provide the offense in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fortunately for Miami, it appears to hold an edge in the pass-protection battle based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami: ranked 1st in pressure rate allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State: ranked 37th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beck takes traditional dropbacks at a high rate (55%), but that typically doesn\u2019t hurt the Canes' pass protection. It still leads the nation in pressure rate allowed on those plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Ohio State might not get to Beck often, its pass defense has been exceptional against traditional dropbacks, allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt, ranked fourth in the nation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the reasons Miami\u2019s passing game struggled against Texas A&M is its tendency to attack underneath.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since the Canes don\u2019t trust Beck to throw downfield (more on that later), 57% of their throws have been five or fewer yards downfield, the seventh-highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That was problematic against A&M, which has playmakers at the second level capable of stepping up against those throws, and the Aggies allow just 5.1 yards per completion on those plays.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately for Miami, the only defense that has been better than A&M is Ohio State, which is allowing 4.9 yards per completion on those short throws.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When Miami does attack downfield, Ohio State\u2019s secondary is also more dangerous than A&M's.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Canes don\u2019t throw downfield often due to Beck\u2019s tendency to put the ball in harm\u2019s way.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beck has thrown 22 interceptions over the last two years, and his ball-hawk rate indicates there\u2019s nothing fluky about those numbers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Miami\u2019s throws 10 or more yards downfield, the defense has made a play on the ball 22% of the time this season, ranked 123rd per Sports Info Solutions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beck protected the ball against A&M, but a factor in that outcome was the Aggies secondary which ranks 117th in downfield ball-hawk rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Ohio State\u2019s secondary isn\u2019t elite in that area, it ranks 65th,<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> which makes it significantly more dangerous than A&M, especially against a turnover prone quarterback.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This trend could potentially come into play if Miami were to fall behind and get forced into a more aggressive game plan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In that scenario, Beck will likely start forcing some questionable decisions, and an ill-timed turnover could allow Ohio State to blow the game open.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s also worth noting Miami\u2019s offense doesn\u2019t produce a ton of big plays, ranking only 64th in explosive play rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, the Buckeye defense leads the nation in explosive play rate allowed \u4e00 another trend which diminishes the odds of Beck leading a late comeback should the Canes fall behind.<\/span><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h3><b>When Ohio State is on Offense<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach <\/span><b>Ryan Day<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and coordinator <\/span><b>Brian Hartline<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hartline, in his first season as the Buckeyes' play caller, has taken the head coaching job at South Florida but is remaining with Ohio State through the playoffs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/campus2canton.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Campus2Canton<\/a>, the Buckeyes throw the ball at a rate 6.8% above expected based on situation data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A pass-centric approach has not been the best way to attack Miami this season, but Ohio State\u2019s offensive line will be one of the best the Hurricanes have faced.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State: ranked 12th in pressure rate allowed\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redshirt-freshman quarterback <\/span><b>Julian Sayin<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has handled pressure well this season, but showed some flaws against Indiana in the Big Ten title game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Hoosiers generated pressure on 44% of Sayin\u2019s dropbacks, the highest rate he\u2019s faced all season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indiana also sacked Sayin five times, after he took just 6 sacks during the regular season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Sayin was also 6 for 10 against pressure while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt on those throws.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sayin\u2019s success against Indiana pressure (aside from the sacks) was no surprise given that he leads the nation in completion rate against pressure (66%) while also averaging 8.0 yards per attempt (ranked 18th).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These numbers are noteworthy against a Miami secondary that hasn\u2019t always held up its end of the bargain when the pass rush gets pressure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When generating pressure, Miami still allows a 45% completion rate (ranked 59th) and 5.3 yards per attempt (ranked 32nd) \u4e00 not terrible numbers, but not the elite production the Hurricanes have generated in most other situations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perhaps more importantly, Miami has only converted 17% of pressures into sacks, ranked 73rd in the FBS, so Sayin\u2019s impressive sack avoidance may return to form in this matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the downfield passing attack is not a huge part of the Ohio State offense, expect Sayin to take some shots with the deep ball when he has protection.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Outside the red zone, only 18% of the Buckeyes' pass attempts have been 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 126th, but Sayin leads the nation with an absurd 65% completion rate on those throws.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Hurricanes are allowing a 37% completion rate at that depth, ranked 41st.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In an effort to negate Miami\u2019s pass rush, expect Ohio State to attack on underneath routes the majority of the time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shorter throws have been another area of relative weakness for this Miami defense, as it allows 6.7 yards per completion on throws five or fewer yards downfield, ranked 57th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the reasons for that trend is a tackling issue in Miami\u2019s secondary.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Hurricanes are allowing a missed or broken tackle once every 4.2 receptions, ranked 117th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the run game, Miami\u2019s defense should hold a slight edge based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State: ranked 41st in yards before contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami: ranked 27th in yards before contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State: ranked 57th in yards after contact<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami: ranked 30th in yards after contact allowed<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State tends to run the ball from heavy formations, as 47% of its attempts have been in 12 personnel formations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry to running backs against 12 personnel, though a significant portion of those carries occurred against Stanford and Florida, two teams with no rushing attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The strength of Miami\u2019s defense, however, is the defensive line, and Ohio State might have more success than others due to its tendency to direct runs to the outside.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State running backs take the ball outside the tackles 64% of the time, the 20th-highest rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s a good strategy against Miami, which only ranks 53rd in yards per carry allowed to the outside (4.8).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another reason to trust Ohio State in this matchup is its discipline relative to Miami.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State ranks 19th in penalty yardage per game, while Miami ranks 96th.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Final Thoughts on Ohio State vs. Miami Best Bets<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Miami\u2019s defense can probably keep this competitive for a while, but the Buckeyes have firepower on offense that Miami can\u2019t match, so <\/span><b>take Ohio State against the spread<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ohio State is not only the more talented team, but Miami\u2019s lack of discipline, Beck\u2019s turnover issues, and <\/span><b>Mario Cristobal<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s chronic game mismanagement put the Hurricanes at a significant disadvantage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This season, I\u2019m breaking down a few of college football&#8217;s  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20699,"featured_media":113416,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Miami vs. Ohio State: College Football Playoff Betting Pick & Prediction","_seopress_titles_desc":"We give you our college football prediction for Ohio State vs. Miami when betting against the spread, breaking down the College Football Playoff matchup.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-119725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Julian-Sayin-Week-7-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119725"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119903,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119725\/revisions\/119903"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}