{"id":119942,"date":"2026-01-04T10:00:36","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T15:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119942"},"modified":"2026-01-05T14:31:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-05T19:31:49","slug":"nfl-week-18-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-week-18-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions &#038; Against The Spread Picks for Week 18"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season is here!<\/p>\n<p>There are great matchups throughout the slate, but let's focus on the Packers against the Vikings and the Bears taking on the Lions.<\/p>\n<h2>Week 18 Best Bet Prediction: Green Bay Packers Under 12.5 Points (+105)<\/h2>\n<p>The Packers are locked into the NFC\u2019s No. 7 seed, and they haven\u2019t hidden their top priority this week.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not earning a victory. Their primary objective is to preserve their health for the playoffs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jordan<\/strong> <strong>Love<\/strong> has cleared the NFL\u2019s concussion protocol. <strong>Malik<\/strong> <strong>Willis<\/strong> has been able to log a pair of limited-participation practices.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the Packers will start <strong>Clayton<\/strong> <strong>Tune<\/strong> against Minnesota\u2019s talented and aggressive defense.<\/p>\n<p>Tune is ill-equipped to handle <strong>Brian Flores<\/strong>&#8216;\u00a0defense.<\/p>\n<p>Tune appeared in seven games and started one in his rookie campaign in 2023, and he was 70th out of 70 quarterbacks with at least 25 plays in EPA per play (-0.98).<\/p>\n<p>According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Tune has a 55.6% completion rate, 78 passing yards, 2.9 yards per pass attempt, 0 big-time throws, 3 turnover-worthy plays (7.1 TWP%), 8 sacks, and a 40.0% pressure-to-sack (P2S%) on 40 dropbacks in his career.<\/p>\n<p>Context is crucial, and it\u2019s unkind to Tune.<\/p>\n<p>Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks in 2025, Tune\u2019s 7.1 TWP% and 40.0 P2S% would rank 42nd and 42nd, better than only <strong>Brady Cook<\/strong>\u2019s 8.2 TWP% and 41.9 P2S%.<\/p>\n<p>Tune will be unable to lean heavily on <strong>Josh<\/strong> <strong>Jacobs <\/strong>since the running back\u00a0won\u2019t play much, if at all, this week.<\/p>\n<p>The Tune-led Packers would struggle to move the ball or score points on even an average NFL defense, and the Vikings are better than that.<\/p>\n<p>The Vikings are tied for third in EPA per play allowed (-0.10), third in EPA per pass allowed (-0.13), tied for sixth in EPA per rush allowed (-0.07), and fifth in success rate allowed (40.82%).<\/p>\n<p>According to Pro Football Reference, Minnesota is also fifth in yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for eighth in turnovers forced (21), first in blitz rate (43.8%), tied for fifth in hurry rate (10.0%), tied for fifth in quarterback knockdown rate (11.0%), third in pressure rate (28.3%), tied for sixth in sacks (45), and tied for ninth in scoring defense (20.6 points per game).<\/p>\n<p>The Vikings are also in pristine form.<\/p>\n<p>Since Week 14, they\u2019ve allowed 0 points to the Commanders in Minnesota, 26 to the Cowboys in Dallas, 13 to the Giants in New Jersey, and 10 to the Lions in Minnesota.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, they\u2019ve held their previous two opponents in Minnesota under 12.5 points, and neither the Commanders nor the Lions were led by Tune.<\/p>\n<p>Minnesota should give Green Bay\u2019s third-string quarterback and offense as a whole fits this week and hold them under 12.5 points.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Week 18 Best Bet Prediction: Chicago Bears -3.0 (-104)<\/h2>\n<p>The Bears have no motivation issues this week, securing the NFC\u2019s No. 2 seed with a victory against the visiting Lions.<\/p>\n<p>They lost a heartbreaking shootout against the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 16.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, they\u2019re in a favorable bounce-back spot against the Lions this week.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dan<\/strong> <strong>Campbell<\/strong> would likely relish the opportunity to be a spoiler against <strong>Ben<\/strong> <strong>Johnson<\/strong>. That will be a tall task with Detroit\u2019s injury-ravaged present roster.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Brian<\/strong> <strong>Branch<\/strong>, <strong>Terrion<\/strong> <strong>Arnold,<\/strong> and <strong>Kerby Joseph<\/strong> are already on the injured reserve.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Alex<\/strong> <strong>Anzalone<\/strong> and <strong>Thomas<\/strong> <strong>Harper<\/strong> are in the NFL\u2019s concussion protocol, but both upgraded from non-participation on Wednesday to limited participation on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, that doesn\u2019t ensure either will clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday\u2019s action.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Alim McNeill<\/strong>\u2019s outlook is potentially even worse.<\/p>\n<p>He hasn\u2019t practiced this week because of an abdominal injury that knocked him out of the Christmas defeat to the Vikings after only 15 snaps.<\/p>\n<p>Detroit\u2019s injuries aren\u2019t limited to the defensive side of the ball.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, they\u2019ve navigated multiple injuries along the offensive line lately, and <strong>Penei Sewell<\/strong> is a new addition to the injury report, missing Wednesday\u2019s and Thursday\u2019s practices with an ankle injury.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Amon-Ra St. Brown<\/strong> is also banged up.<\/p>\n<p>He didn\u2019t practice on Wednesday but was limited with a knee and ankle designation on Thursday, and The Sun God would like to suit up this week.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, being active doesn\u2019t mean St. Brown will play an entire allotment of snaps.<\/p>\n<p>The Lions are a mash unit.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, <strong>Jared<\/strong> <strong>Goff<\/strong> is at his best at home and indoors. He\u2019s on the road and outdoors this week.<\/p>\n<p>According to TruMedia, Goff is 11-6 with a 67.0% completion rate, 259.9 passing yards per game, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 30 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 31 sacks taken in 17 games outdoors since 2023.<\/p>\n<p>It will be a cold game in Chicago, too.<\/p>\n<p>Goff has underwhelmed in the cold.<\/p>\n<p>He has a 5-3-1 record, 60.3% completion rate, 233.1 passing yards per game, 10 passing touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 16 sacks taken, and 89.1 quarterback rating in nine games with a kickoff temperature of 45 degrees or colder since 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Chicago has the offensive firepower to put itself out of Goff\u2019s reach to keep up.<\/p>\n<p>The Bears are tied for seventh in EPA per play (0.08), tied for ninth in EPA per pass (0.09), fourth in EPA per rush (0.06), tied for ninth in yards per play (5.7), first in turnovers (10), fourth in sacks allowed (23), and 10th in scoring offense (26.6 points per game).<\/p>\n<p>Chicago\u2019s defense isn\u2019t as good as its offense.<\/p>\n<p>Nonetheless, they\u2019re tied for 17th in EPA allowed per play (0.01). Coincidentally, the Bears and Lions are tied for 22nd in scoring defense (24.8 points per game).<\/p>\n<p>Injuries to the Lions and the quality of Chicago\u2019s offense should tilt the scales toward the Bears beating the Lions by more than 3 points in a game they need to lock up the NFC\u2019s No. 2 seed.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season is here! There  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60832,"featured_media":111726,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions & Against The Spread Picks, Week 18","_seopress_titles_desc":"Josh Shepardson delivers the best bets for Week 18 of the NFL season. Against the spread picks and predictions as well as best game totals, over\/unders to bet.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-119942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Caleb-Williams-Week-4-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60832"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119942"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119942\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119944,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119942\/revisions\/119944"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}