{"id":119945,"date":"2026-01-04T10:00:45","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T15:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=119945"},"modified":"2026-01-04T11:06:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T16:06:17","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-week-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 18"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here we go: It\u2019s Week 18, the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season.<\/p>\n

This week, there are no Thursday Night Football or Monday Night Football games.<\/p>\n

Instead, there are two on Saturday and 14 on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Let's get into my three best prop bets for this slate before we head into the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Week 18 Prediction: Sam Darnold Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-113)<\/h2>\n

There are a few massively important games in Week 18, and one of them is the Seattle Seahawks and Darnold against the San Francisco 49ers.<\/p>\n

The winner of this game will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.<\/p>\n

With that, I think this is going to be a slightly different game than you may expect based on these teams\u2019 recent performances.<\/p>\n

The 49ers have been on an offensive rampage lately, averaging 42 points per game over their last three, and the Seahawks have won six in a row and put up 27 points or more in three of their last four.<\/p>\n

The two coverages the Seahawks play most are Cover 3 and Cover 6, and 49ers quarterback Brock<\/strong> Purdy<\/strong> has just 5 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions against those.<\/p>\n

Couple that with this being a divisional matchup and the total being at 47.5, and this may not turn into a shootout that\u2019ll put Darnold in a position to keep pace.<\/p>\n

Heading into this game, Darnold has thrown for 243 yards or fewer in seven of 16 games.<\/p>\n

In one of those games, he had 244 yards.<\/p>\n

One of his worst games of the season came against these 49ers, but to be fair to him, that was in Week 1.<\/p>\n

He threw for just 150 yards.<\/p>\n

Darnold is averaging about 30 dropbacks per game, and opposing quarterbacks see Cover 3 on about 40% of their dropbacks when facing the 49ers.<\/p>\n

Against Cover 3, Darnold has had some success, averaging about 8.5 yards per dropback.<\/p>\n

So, at a 40% rate (12 dropbacks), that\u2019s about 102 passing yards.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m just not sure he\u2019ll have enough dropbacks or attempts to get to this line.<\/p>\n

Finally, while I cannot quantify this statistically, there\u2019s another narrative to keep in mind: Will Darnold fall apart?<\/p>\n

This is a crucial game, similar to the one he played for the Minnesota Vikings last season.<\/p>\n

Take the under.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Week 18 Prediction: Shedeur Sanders Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-245)<\/h2>\n

Sanders has made six starts this season and has thrown 1 touchdown or more in six of them, including in each of his last two.<\/p>\n

Now, he\u2019ll face the Cincinnati Bengals defense that should allow him to show out a bit before the Cleveland Browns head into the offseason and make a decision on where to go with the quarterback position.<\/p>\n

The Bengals are allowing 1.88 passing touchdowns per game.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve allowed at least 1 touchdown pass in all but two games this season: Week 13 against a banged-up Lamar<\/strong> Jackson<\/strong> and Week 16 against Quinn<\/strong> Ewers<\/strong> in his first NFL start.<\/p>\n

In fact, they\u2019ve allowed more multi-passing touchdown games than they have those with one or fewer.<\/p>\n

Sanders is without a few key options: tight ends Harold Fannin Jr.<\/strong> and David<\/strong> Njoku<\/strong>, and running back Quinshon<\/strong> Judkins<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

His top weapon will be wide receiver Jerry<\/strong> Jeudy<\/strong>, who has only 2 touchdowns this season, but they\u2019ve both come against the coverage the Bengals most often play.<\/p>\n

With Joe<\/strong> Burrow<\/strong> under center for the Bengals, chances are they\u2019ll put up some points and put the Browns and Sanders into a spot where he needs to throw.<\/p>\n

Sanders will have 1 passing touchdown against this dreadful Bengals defense.<\/p>\n

Week 18 Prediction: Matthew Stafford Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-200)<\/h2>\n

Before diving into my analysis, there\u2019s something massive to consider with this prop: If the 49ers beat the Seahawks, the Rams are locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC regardless of whatever happens this week.<\/p>\n

So, this could be a scenario where Stafford may not play the whole game.<\/p>\n

To play devil\u2019s advocate, though, he could stay out there to push for the MVP award.<\/p>\n

Still, in Week 18, these are angles we need to consider.<\/p>\n

The 49ers certainly have a chance to win, so taking the under on the line could prove even more valuable if, for example, Stafford plays only the first half.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s dive into the numbers.<\/p>\n

These teams met in Week 14, and Stafford threw 3 touchdowns and had 281 passing yards.<\/p>\n

However \u2014 and sure, this could happen again this week \u2014 one of Stafford\u2019s 3 touchdowns (his 3rd) came immediately after an interception from Cardinals quarterback Jacoby<\/strong> Brissett<\/strong> at the Cardinals\u2019 22-yard line.<\/p>\n

Additionally, looking at the numbers, the Cardinals play Cover 3 and Cover 4 more than anything else.<\/p>\n

Against these, Stafford has thrown 12 of his 42 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s thrown multiple touchdown passes in three games this season, including against the Cardinals.<\/p>\n

Something else to consider is that, while wide receiver Davante<\/strong> Adams<\/strong> didn\u2019t catch any touchdowns, his presence on the field certainly helps open things up for the other weapons, including Puka<\/strong> Nacua<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Overall, there are too many things going against wagering on him hitting 3 touchdown passes: There\u2019s a reality where he doesn\u2019t play the whole game, Adams is questionable, 1 of his touchdowns in their last meeting came after an interception in favorable field position, and he\u2019s never thrown 3 touchdowns in a game against Cover 3 and Cover 4.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here we go: It\u2019s Week 18, the final week of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":112136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 18","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season, including Sam Darnold and Shedeur Sanders.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-119945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Sam-Darnold-Week-4-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119945"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119945\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119947,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119945\/revisions\/119947"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}