{"id":120159,"date":"2026-01-10T08:45:21","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T13:45:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=120159"},"modified":"2026-01-11T12:39:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T17:39:43","slug":"packers-bears-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/packers-bears-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bears vs. Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card Round matchup between the Bears and Packers.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/nfl-wild-card-round-preview-fantasy-football-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/\"><em>Find a breakdown of every Wild Card Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='120183' id='jtrt_table_settings_120183' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Green Bay\",\"Rank\",\"@\",\"Chicago\",\"Rank\"],[\"1.0\",\" \",\"Spread\",\"-1.0\",\" \"],[\"22.5\",\" \",\"Implied Total\",\"23.5\",\" \"],[\"23.0\",\"16\",\"Points\\\/Gm\",\"25.9\",\"9\"],[\"21.2\",\"11\",\"Points All.\\\/Gm\",\"24.4\",\"23\"],[\"59.4\",\"23\",\"Plays\\\/Gm\",\"64.9\",\"2\"],[\"62.4\",\"21\",\"Opp. Plays\\\/Gm\",\"60.3\",\"11\"],[\"5.6\",\"10\",\"Off. Yards\\\/Play\",\"5.7\",\"9\"],[\"5.0\",\"9\",\"Def. Yards\\\/Play\",\"6.0\",\"29\"],[\"48.71%\",\"5\",\"Rush%\",\"45.78%\",\"9\"],[\"51.29%\",\"28\",\"Pass%\",\"54.22%\",\"24\"],[\"44.86%\",\"19\",\"Opp. Rush %\",\"44.59%\",\"17\"],[\"55.14%\",\"14\",\"Opp. Pass 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data-jtrt-table-id='120183' id='jtrt_table_bps_120183' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_120183' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='120183' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Green Bay<\/th><th>Rank<\/th><th>@<\/th><th>Chicago<\/th><th>Rank<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1.0<\/td><td> <\/td><td>Spread<\/td><td>-1.0<\/td><td> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td>22.5<\/td><td> <\/td><td>Implied Total<\/td><td>23.5<\/td><td> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td>23.0<\/td><td>16<\/td><td>Points\/Gm<\/td><td>25.9<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>21.2<\/td><td>11<\/td><td>Points All.\/Gm<\/td><td>24.4<\/td><td>23<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>59.4<\/td><td>23<\/td><td>Plays\/Gm<\/td><td>64.9<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>62.4<\/td><td>21<\/td><td>Opp. Plays\/Gm<\/td><td>60.3<\/td><td>11<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5.6<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>Off. Yards\/Play<\/td><td>5.7<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5.0<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>Def. Yards\/Play<\/td><td>6.0<\/td><td>29<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>48.71%<\/td><td>5<\/td><td>Rush%<\/td><td>45.78%<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51.29%<\/td><td>28<\/td><td>Pass%<\/td><td>54.22%<\/td><td>24<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>44.86%<\/td><td>19<\/td><td>Opp. Rush %<\/td><td>44.59%<\/td><td>17<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>55.14%<\/td><td>14<\/td><td>Opp. Pass %<\/td><td>55.41%<\/td><td>16<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_postgray_box\">\n\t\t<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bears ATS: 10-7<\/li>\n<li>Packers ATS: 7-10<\/li>\n<li>Bears ATS Home: 5-3<\/li>\n<li>Packers ATS Away: 3-6<\/li>\n<li>Bears ATS as Favorite: 5-2<\/li>\n<li>Packers ATS as Underdog: 2-1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n<h2>Game Overview<\/h2>\n<p>Saturday night closes with the NFL\u2019s most storied rivalry.<\/p>\n<p>These teams have met 210 times in the regular season, but this will be only the third postseason meeting.<\/p>\n<p>Being a divisional matchup, we have seen these teams play twice already this season, both in December.<\/p>\n<p>The Packers won 28-21 in Green Bay in Week 14, while the Bears won the rematch in Chicago 22-16.<\/p>\n<p>Green Bay opened both matchups with the upper hand, leading at the half 14-3 in the first matchup and 6-0 in the second game.<\/p>\n<p>Green Bay led 16-6 late in the second matchup before the Bears scored 10 points in the final two minutes of the game to send the game into overtime.<\/p>\n<p>They won on a 46-yard strike from <strong>Caleb<\/strong> <strong>Williams<\/strong> to <strong>D.J. Moore<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>That has been the story for the Bears in their breakout season.<\/p>\n<p>Chicago has a league-high six wins when trailing in the fourth quarter this season.<\/p>\n<p>The Bears average 3.15 points per drive in the fourth quarter (2nd in the league) compared to 2.02 points per drive through three quarters (17th).<\/p>\n<p>That second matchup also only featured <strong>Jordan<\/strong> <strong>Love<\/strong> for 26 snaps, who was forced from the game in the second quarter with a concussion.<\/p>\n<p>The Bears have been one of the better stories this season, going 11-6 in <strong>Ben Johnson<\/strong>\u2019s first season as coach and winning the division for the first time since 2018.<\/p>\n<p>They will be looking to get their first playoff win since 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Chicago turned it around with a spike in offensive rushing efficiency and by dominating the turnover battle.<\/p>\n<p>The Bears lead the league in success rate on rushing plays (47.1%).<\/p>\n<p>Chicago has the best turnover margin in the league at +22, scoring 104 points off takeaways (2nd) while only allowing 31 points off turnovers (2nd).<\/p>\n<p>Chicago forced a turnover on a league-high 18.2% of opponent possessions.<\/p>\n<p>That was necessary because Chicago allowed 2.71 points per drive when they did not get a turnover.<\/p>\n<p>That ranked 27th in the league and was the highest rate among playoff teams.<\/p>\n<p>The Packers scored only 23 points off takeaways this season, which ranked 31st in the league.<\/p>\n<p>The good news is that they allowed only 37 points off turnovers, which was fourth.<\/p>\n<p>Green Bay\u2019s key margins came on third downs.<\/p>\n<p>The Packers converted 48.8% of their third downs (2nd in the league) and a league-high 38.4% of their third and long situations (needing seven-plus yards).<\/p>\n<p>When these teams played in the regular season, Green Bay converted 66.7% (8 of 12) and 50% (6 of 12) of third downs.<\/p>\n<p>In the two games these teams played, Green Bay added 13.9 expected points on third downs while the Bears were at -3.3.<\/p>\n<h2>Quarterback<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Jordan Love: <\/strong>We have not seen Love since the start of Week 16, when he was forced from the second game between these teams with a concussion in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Love is a boom-or-bust quarterback facing a boom-or-bust defense.<\/p>\n<p>Love was the QB11 (19.3 points) when these teams played in Week 14.<\/p>\n<p>Without pressure this season, Love has the highest rating in the league (128.8), completing a league-high 79.6% of his passes for 9.2 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and an 8.1% touchdown rate (3rd).<\/p>\n<p>When pressured, Love has completed 41.6% of his passes (30th) for 5.0 Y\/A (30th) and a 0% touchdown rate.<\/p>\n<p>The Bears pressured Love 34.6% of the time in Week 14.<\/p>\n<p>When kept clean in that game, Love was 17 of 24 (70.8%) for 234 yards (9.8 Y\/A) with 3 touchdowns.<\/p>\n<p>When pressured, he was 4 of 8 for 30 yards (3.8 Y\/A) with a sack.<\/p>\n<p>The Bears have a league-high 4.3% interception rate but also allow 7.6 yards per pass attempt (28th) and a 6% touchdown rate (28th).<\/p>\n<p>They are 26th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.480).<\/p>\n<p>When Chicago has not gotten pressure this season, they have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt (24th) and a 7% touchdown rate (31st).<\/p>\n<p>Love could be in a better position to work from a clean pocket if <strong>Zach Tom<\/strong> is good to go for Saturday night.<\/p>\n<p>Tom missed five games this season and has not played since the Denver game in Week 15.<\/p>\n<p>Love has been pressured on 37.3% of his dropbacks. With Tom on the field this season compared to a 44% pressure rate with Tom off the field.<\/p>\n<p>With Tom on the field, Love has a 1% interception rate and a 3.2% sack rate.<\/p>\n<p>With Tom off the field, Love has a 2.1% interception rate and a 7.2% sack rate.<\/p>\n<p>How aggressive the Bears get in the rematch could be the story here.<\/p>\n<p>The Bears played man coverage 37% of the time in the first matchup, with Love completing 8 of 10 passes for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns.<\/p>\n<p>In his small sample in the rematch before leaving, the Bears did not play any snaps of man coverage.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Caleb Williams: <\/strong>Williams made wholesale improvements in his sophomore season with <strong>Ben<\/strong> <strong>Johnson<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>He went from a 39.8% success rate in 2024 (30th) to a 42.5% success rate (22nd) this season.<\/p>\n<p>24.6% of his dropbacks resulted in a gain of 1.0 EPA or more (14th) after a 20.4% rate as a rookie (30th).<\/p>\n<p>Only 14.2% of his dropbacks lost 1.0 EPA or worse (6th) after an 18.6% rate in 2024 (29th).<\/p>\n<p>Johnson had Williams playing more under center in his second season.<\/p>\n<p>After a 28.8% under-center rate as a rookie, Williams was at 48.4% this year.<\/p>\n<p>That increased his play-action rate from 16.9% as a rookie to 33.3% this year.<\/p>\n<p>The last hurdle Williams needs to clear is accuracy as a passer.<\/p>\n<p>He still only completed 58.1% of his throws this year, ahead of just <strong>J.J. McCarthy<\/strong> (57.6%).<\/p>\n<p>Williams had a 14.6% inaccurate throw rate, which was the worst among the 33 passers who qualified for the league\u2019s passer rating.<\/p>\n<p>Full-game consistency has been the story in these two matchups for Williams.<\/p>\n<p>He has gotten off to poor starts in both matchups.<\/p>\n<p>Williams started rough against Green Bay in Week 14, completing 6 of 14 passes (42.9%) for 32 yards (2.3 Y\/A) in the first half.<\/p>\n<p>He picked things up after the break, completing 13 of 21 (61.9%) for 154 yards (7.3 Y\/A) with 2 touchdowns in the second half in an attempted comeback that fell short and ended on an interception in the end zone.<\/p>\n<p>When these teams played again in Week 16, Williams was only 8 of 13 for 107 yards entering the fourth quarter before going 11 of 21 for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime.<\/p>\n<p>He added 30 rushing yards, 21 of which came in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Like Love, Williams has been sensitive to pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Williams has a shaky completion rate regardless of pressure, but he averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt (13th) when he isn't pressured compared to 5.4 Y\/A when pressured (26th).<\/p>\n<p>Green Bay pressured him on 35.9% of his dropbacks in Week 14 and then 48.6% in Week 16.<\/p>\n<p>They did not have <strong>Micah Parsons<\/strong> in that second matchup, either.<\/p>\n<p>The Packers even blitzed Williams at a lower rate (27%) in the rematch than with Parsons (28.2%).<\/p>\n<p>Green Bay only played man coverage on 10% and 16.2% of the dropbacks in those games, but when they did, Williams made them pay.<\/p>\n<p>On 10 total dropbacks in two games against man coverage, Williams threw 3 of his 4 touchdowns against the Packers.<\/p>\n<p>Even though they did have success for most of that second game, Green Bay has, of course, been a worse defense since losing Parsons.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past month, they have allowed 391, 400, 414, and 363 yards on defense.<\/p>\n<p>Before that, they had allowed more than 336 yards in a game twice.<\/p>\n<p>On 204 dropbacks without Parsons on the field, Green Bay has allowed a 67% completion rate (27th), 4.9% touchdown rate (18th), with as 3.7% sack rate (31st) compared to a 64.9% completion rate (18th), 4.1% touchdown rate (12th), and a 7.3% sack rate (11th)) with Parsons.<\/p>\n<p>The one area where they have remained strong is allowing only 6.6 Y\/A without Parsons (9th) compared to 6.3 Y\/A with him (5th).<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2>Running Back<\/h2>\n\t<div class=\"sf_postarticle_read\">\n\t\t<h3 class=\"title-heading-center\">To continue reading this article<\/h3>\n\t\t<div>\n\t\t\t<p><p>and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of our postseason betting recommendations, click below to learn more about our Postseason Package.<\/p>\n<\/p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/postseason-betting\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-paywall\" class=\"fusion-button fusion-button-pill button-large button-1 pink-border-button custurl_metabtn\"><span>Learn More<\/span><\/a><\/div>\t\t<div class=\"sflogintext\">\n\t\t\tAlready a Subscriber?<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/login\/?redurl=https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/packers-bears-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/\">Log In<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<div class=\"sf_image_divider\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/themes\/Avada-child\/img\/red_lines-separate.png\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<h3>More Wild Card Round Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:<\/h3>\n<div class='jtrt_table_MotherShipContainer'><div class='jtTableContainer jtrespo-scroll  ' ><div class='jtsettingcontainer' style='display:none;position:absolute;left:-9999px;'><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='120150' id='jtrt_table_settings_120150' cols='30' rows='10'>[[[\"Matchup\",\"Time\"],[\"<a href='https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/fantasy\\\/rams-panthers-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\\\/'>Rams @ Panthers<\\\/a>\",\"Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET\"],[\"<a href='https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/fantasy\\\/packers-bears-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\\\/'>Packers @ Bears<\\\/a>\",\"Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET\"],[\"<a href='https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/fantasy\\\/bills-jaguars-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\\\/'>Bills @ Jaguars<\\\/a>\",\"Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET\"],[\"<a href='https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/fantasy\\\/49ers-eagles-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\\\/'>49ers @ Eagles<\\\/a>\",\"Sunday -- 4:30 p.m. ET\"],[\"<a href='https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/fantasy\\\/chargers-patriots-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\\\/'>Chargers @ Patriots<\\\/a>\",\"Sunday Night Football\"],[\"<a href='https:\\\/\\\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\\\/fantasy\\\/texans-steelers-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\\\/'>Texans @ Steelers<\\\/a>\",\"Monday Night Football\"]],[{\"row\":0,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0},{\"row\":0,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":0,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":1,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":1,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":1,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":2,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":2,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":2,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":3,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":3,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":3,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":4,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":4,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":4,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":5,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":5,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":5,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1},{\"row\":6,\"col\":0,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":0,\"prop\":0,\"jtcellstyle\":{\"font-weight\":\"bold\"}},{\"row\":6,\"col\":1,\"visualRow\":6,\"visualCol\":1,\"prop\":1}],[],[]]<\/textarea><textarea data-jtrt-table-id='120150' id='jtrt_table_bps_120150' cols='30' rows='10'>[]<\/textarea><\/div><table id='jtrt_table_120150' data-sorting='false' data-paging='false' data-paging-size='10' data-paging-menu='10,20,50,100' data-filtering='false' data-jtrt-table-id='120150' class='jtrt-table  ' ><thead><tr><th>Matchup<\/th><th>Time<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/rams-panthers-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/'>Rams @ Panthers<\/a><\/td><td>Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/packers-bears-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/'>Packers @ Bears<\/a><\/td><td>Saturday -- 8:00 p.m. ET<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/bills-jaguars-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/'>Bills @ Jaguars<\/a><\/td><td>Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/49ers-eagles-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/'>49ers @ Eagles<\/a><\/td><td>Sunday -- 4:30 p.m. ET<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/chargers-patriots-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/'>Chargers @ Patriots<\/a><\/td><td>Sunday Night Football<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/fantasy\/texans-steelers-wild-card-round-fantasy-football-preview-nfl-worksheet-rich-hribar-2025\/'>Texans @ Steelers<\/a><\/td><td>Monday Night Football<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar,  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":120130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Bears vs. Packers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Wild Card Round","_seopress_titles_desc":"Everything you need to know for the Wild Card Round matchup between the Bears and Packers. 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