{"id":120309,"date":"2026-01-12T10:18:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T15:18:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=120309"},"modified":"2026-01-12T12:47:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T17:47:08","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-wild-card-round-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-wild-card-round-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Wild Card Round"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs is here.<\/p>\n

It begins with the Carolina Panthers vs. the Los Angeles Rams and ends with the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Houston Texans on Monday night.<\/p>\n

Below, I\u2019ll provide my four best props for this weekend\u2019s action.<\/p>\n

Wild Card Round Prediction: Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-112)<\/h2>\n

The narrative heading into this game is that the Texans badly outmatch the Steelers and are going to walk all over them.<\/p>\n

While I can concede they may win the game, I don\u2019t believe it\u2019ll be as big a blowout as \u201cthe public\u201d thinks it will be, and a big part of that will be Rodgers\u2019 passing ability.<\/p>\n

This season, Rodgers finished with 21 completions or more in 10 of 16 games, including each of his last five.<\/p>\n

Rodgers is averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt, and the magic formula for him racking up these completions is his extremely fast time to throw.<\/p>\n

Of all 36 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks this season, Rodgers has the second-fastest time to throw at 2.56 seconds, trailing only Miami Dolphins signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa<\/strong> at 2.55 seconds.<\/p>\n

In addition to that, 22.9% of his attempts are behind the line of scrimmage, and 45% are between zero and nine yards downfield.<\/p>\n

Does this mean there are explosive plays?<\/p>\n

No, but for this prop, that massively benefits us.<\/p>\n

Going further, the Texans primarily play Cover 3, and against that, Rodgers has a 67.7% completion percentage, completing 90 of 133 passes on 142 dropbacks.<\/p>\n

Also, against quarterbacks that get the ball out in 2.56 seconds or faster, the Texans are allowing a 69.2% completion percentage for 1,777 yards, 6.2 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.<\/p>\n

This game is setting up well for something more competitive than you might expect, and a big part of that will be completions from Rodgers\u2019 42-year-old right arm.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Wild Card Round Prediction: Konata Mumpfield Under 6.5 Receiving Yards (-115)<\/h2>\n

Looking at the entirety of the 2025-2026 season, Mumpfield finished with a 4% target share, catching 10 of 23 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s finished with 7 receiving yards or more in four games this season, including in two of his last three.<\/p>\n

However, in the two games he went over this line, both Davante<\/strong> Adams<\/strong> and Tyler Higbee<\/strong> were out with injury.<\/p>\n

In fact, in situations where Adams and Higbee are on the field, Mumpfield has a 0.7% target share, catching just 1 pass.<\/p>\n

Then, if you add Puka Nacua<\/strong> to the mix, who will certainly be on the field, Mumpfield never even gets on the field.<\/p>\n

Looking at the two games he went over this line, Mumpfield was far more involved.<\/p>\n

He had a 15.5% target share and ran a route on 59.8% of quarterback Matthew Stafford<\/strong>\u2019s dropbacks.<\/p>\n

However, in Week 18, when only Higbee returned, he had a mere 2.7% target share, catching 0 passes on 1 target.<\/p>\n

He did run a route on 51.2% of dropbacks, but still, he wasn\u2019t looked at whatsoever.<\/p>\n

Now, Adams is back on the field, and Mumpfield will likely not really get on the field, barring injury.<\/p>\n

As it is, the Panthers allow the eighth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers per game, and Adams and Nacua will monopolize those targets.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see Mumpfield getting on the field.<\/p>\n

Wild Card Round Prediction: Cade Stover Under 1.5 Receptions (-185)<\/h2>\n

The Texans are on the road against a Steelers defense that does allow the fourth-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends (6.24), but taking the over on Stover\u2019s receptions isn\u2019t the play.<\/p>\n

Throughout the entire regular season, Stover boasts just a 2.9% target share, catching 12 of 16 passes for 76 yards.<\/p>\n

He did miss a bunch of time, but even since his return in Week 11 to now, his target share is just 5%, catching 8 of 12 passes for 54 yards.<\/p>\n

He caught 4 passes in Week 1, but after that, he\u2019s caught 1 pass or fewer in five of nine games.<\/p>\n

Stover is behind players like Nico<\/strong> Collins<\/strong>, Dalton<\/strong> Schultz<\/strong>, Jayden Higgins<\/strong>, Xavier<\/strong> Hutchinson<\/strong>, and Christian<\/strong> Kirk<\/strong> in target share.<\/p>\n

Not only that, but he\u2019s run a route on just 21.1% of his quarterback\u2019s dropbacks, which pales in comparison to Schultz\u2019s 79.9%.<\/p>\n

Going further, the Steelers play plenty of Cover 1 and Cover 3, and against those, Stover, since Week 11, has a 3.8% target share, tied with Jaylin<\/strong> Noel<\/strong> and Woody<\/strong> Marks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s not getting targeted much at all, and he doesn\u2019t run many routes.<\/p>\n

Take the under.<\/p>\n

Wild Card Round Prediction: Josh Whyle Under 1.5 Receptions (-400)<\/h2>\n

This is a somewhat surprising prop bet to see, not only because of the player but also because of the odds.<\/p>\n

No, the odds aren\u2019t great, but this one feels like an easy addition to a parlay or something like that.<\/p>\n

Since Week 10, Whyle has a 2.3% target share, catching 4 of 5 passes for 32 yards and a touchdown.<\/p>\n

Over the Packers\u2019 last two games \u2014 not including Week 18 due to them playing backups \u2014 Whyle caught just 1 pass for 8 yards.<\/p>\n

Whyle has just 5 catches all season and hasn\u2019t caught multiple passes in a game since Week 18 last year, while he was on the Tennessee Titans.<\/p>\n

This is a slam dunk under choice.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs is here. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60833,"featured_media":111914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Wild Card Round","_seopress_titles_desc":"Richard Janvrin gives out the best over\/under player props predictions for the Wild Card Round of the 2025 NFL season, including Aaron Rodgers.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-120309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","category-props","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2236617360-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60833"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120309"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120309\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":120310,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120309\/revisions\/120310"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/111914"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}