{"id":120567,"date":"2026-01-18T09:00:56","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T14:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=120567"},"modified":"2026-01-18T11:38:05","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T16:38:05","slug":"nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-divisional-round-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-best-over-under-player-prop-bets-today-divisional-round-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Divisional Round"},"content":{"rendered":"

There are eight teams left in the NFL playoffs, with a lot of great matchups this weekend.<\/p>\n

Let's look at my three best props for this slate, including two from the Bears-Rams game and another from the Broncos against the Bills.<\/p>\n

Divisional Round Prediction: Matthew Stafford Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-113)<\/h2>\n

The Los Angeles Rams are on the road against the Chicago Bears, and the game has a total of 49.<\/p>\n

I believe that is too low.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think either defense will be able to stop the opposing offense, which will lead to a shootout.<\/p>\n

The Bears have allowed 303 passing yards or more in each of their last three games, including 323 to Jordan<\/strong> Love<\/strong> in the Wild Card Round last week.<\/p>\n

As for Stafford, he\u2019s thrown for 267 or more in six of his last eight games.<\/p>\n

The three coverages the Bears most often play are Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Of those, Stafford has faced Cover-3 the most, seeing it on 220 of his dropbacks.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s 146 of 209 (69.9%) for 1,799 yards, 8.6 yards per attempt, with 11 touchdown passes.<\/p>\n

Those 1,799 yards against Cover 3 are the most in the league.<\/p>\n

Not only that, but Stafford\u2019s No. 1 target, Puka<\/strong> Nacua<\/strong>, leads the NFL in targets (71), receptions (56), and yards (735) against Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, against Cover 1, Nacua ranks fourth in the NFL in yards (318) and averages 21.1 yards per reception.<\/p>\n

Something else to consider is that the Bears are dealing with injuries on defense.<\/p>\n

Linebacker T.J. Edwards <\/strong>fractured his fibula and is out for the season, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson<\/strong> is questionable, and Kyler<\/strong> Gordon <\/strong>is dinged up and allowed a few chunk plays in the Wild Card Round win.<\/p>\n

Finally, we have to examine Stafford when he has a clean pocket.<\/p>\n

The Bears are 30th in the NFL in pressures (187), so I expect many clean looks for Stafford.<\/p>\n

When he\u2019s kept clean in the pocket, Stafford has completed 71.7% of his passes for 3,855 yards (8.5 yards per attempt) and 41 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, his average depth of target is higher under pressure (10.8) than in a clean pocket (9.3), so if the Bears do get some pressure, Stafford may look to chuck it up to Nacua or another receiver downfield.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

Divisional Round Prediction: Luther Burden III Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)<\/h2>\n

In the Wild Card Round win over the Packers, in what was a 31-27 shootout, Burden had 3 catches on 7 targets for 42 yards.<\/p>\n

When fellow wide receiver Rome<\/strong> Odunze<\/strong> was on the field, they had a fairly similar target share percentage, with Odunze at 18.8% and Burden at 15.6%.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, though, Burden caught just 1 of those targets.<\/p>\n

What I liked was that Williams was targeting Burden at all levels of the field, which makes reaching this line of 38 that much easier.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the Bears will be facing a lot of Cover 3, and Burden has been excellent against it.<\/p>\n

He leads the team in yards (339) and is tied for the team lead in yards per reception (16.1) versus Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Here are the stat lines for Burden III and Odunze:<\/p>\n