{"id":120876,"date":"2026-01-25T08:30:32","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T13:30:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=120876"},"modified":"2026-01-25T11:58:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T16:58:19","slug":"nfl-afc-nfc-championship-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/nfl-afc-nfc-championship-predictions-best-bets-picks-ats-totals-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions & Against The Spread Picks for Conference Championships"},"content":{"rendered":"

The AFC and NFC Championship Games for the 2025 NFL season are here!<\/p>\n

Let's look at the two best bets for the AFC and NFC Championship Games.<\/p>\n

AFC Championship Game Best Bet Prediction: New England Patriots Over 23.5 Points (-113)<\/h2>\n

The Patriots had an outstanding season on offense.<\/p>\n

According to Sumer Sports, they were first in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.13), first in EPA per pass (0.29), tied for 17th in EPA per rush (-0.03), and fourth in success rate (46.93%) in the regular season.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, traditional measures were sparkling, too.<\/p>\n

Per Pro Football Reference, New England was tied for first in yards per play (6.2) and second in scoring offense (28.8 points per game).<\/p>\n

The Pats stumbled out of the blocks offensively in the playoffs, tallying only 16 points against the Chargers.<\/p>\n

They rebounded with aplomb in the Divisional Round by scoring 28 points, though one of their touchdowns came on a pick-six.<\/p>\n

C.J. Stroud<\/strong> threw 4 interceptions and took 3 sacks, and Woody<\/strong> Marks<\/strong> lost a fumble.<\/p>\n

Among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in the regular season, Stroud was tied for 10th in EPA per play (0.11).<\/p>\n

He was miserable in the Wild Card Round against the Steelers.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, New England\u2019s ability to stop him in the Divisional Round was impressive, and they\u2019ll face a quarterback who didn\u2019t attempt a pass in the regular season.<\/p>\n

Jarrett Stidham<\/strong>\u2019s action this season includes handing off three times and kneeling once against the Cowboys.<\/p>\n

Stidham has 234 career dropbacks, 1,422 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, a 59.4% completion rate, 8 passing touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.<\/p>\n

His numbers have left something to be desired, and his 8 passing touchdowns and 8 interceptions were friendlier to his performance than his 2 big-time throws (1.0 BTT%) and 8 turnover-worthy plays (3.2 TWP%), via PFF.<\/p>\n

Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 38 dropbacks this season, Stidham\u2019s 1.0 BTT% would be dead last behind Dillon Gabriel<\/strong>\u2019s 1.5 BTT%, and his 3.2 TWP% would tie Joe Flacco<\/strong>\u2019s mark for 21st.<\/p>\n

Stidham could completely faceplant against the Patriots, providing Drake<\/strong> Maye<\/strong> and the offense with short fields.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, if Sean<\/strong> Payton<\/strong> is in his bag and gets the most out of Stidham, the Broncos could push New England to score.<\/p>\n

Payton also likely won\u2019t have a choice but lean on the pass.<\/p>\n

As Rich Hribar pointed out in the Fantasy Football Worksheet<\/a>, New England\u2019s run defense has been stout with Milton<\/strong> Williams<\/strong> and Robert Spillane<\/strong> on the field, holding 124 running back runs to 3.3 yards per carry.<\/p>\n

While Payton\u2019s hand might be forced to lean on Stidham\u2019s arm, the Patriots have pass-leaning tendencies.<\/p>\n

According to the Fantasy Points data suite, New England was fifth in pass rate over expectations (+5.4% PROE) in the regular season.<\/p>\n

Conversely, the Broncos faced the fifth-highest PROE (+3.6%).<\/p>\n

Denver\u2019s pass defense is an excellent unit, ranking tied for sixth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.11) in the regular season.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re not flawless, though.<\/p>\n

The Broncos faced five quarterbacks in the top-10 in EPA per pass this season, excluding Stroud\u2019s injury-shortened start in Week 9.<\/p>\n

Specifically, Denver faced Daniel<\/strong> Jones<\/strong> in Week 2, Dak<\/strong> Prescott<\/strong> in Week 8, Patrick<\/strong> Mahomes<\/strong> in Week 11, Jordan<\/strong> Love<\/strong> in Week 15, and Josh Allen<\/strong> in the Divisional Round.<\/p>\n

Those teams recorded 29, 24, 19, 26, and 30 points.<\/p>\n

Thus, they permitted 25.6 points per game in games against top-10 quarterbacks in EPA per play, and only one of those teams scored fewer than 23.5 points.<\/p>\n

Even if the Broncos continue Maye\u2019s postseason sack-and-turnover woes, that doesn\u2019t preclude the Patriots from clearing 23.5 points.<\/p>\n

The Bills had 5 turnovers, and Allen absorbed 3 sacks last week.<\/p>\n

It didn\u2019t matter. Buffalo still scored 30 points.<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t have to be pretty for the Patriots to eclipse 23.5 points for the 16th time this season on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n

NFC Championship Game Best Bet Prediction: Los Angeles Rams +2.5 Points (-105)<\/h2>\n

The NFC Championship Game is an NFC West rubbermatch between the Rams and the Seahawks.<\/p>\n

The Rams won the first matchup 21-19 in Week 11 in Los Angeles, and the Seahawks won the second matchup 38-37 in overtime in Seattle in Week 16.<\/p>\n

The margins were razor-thin in the two previous matchups, and the spread is slight in the third matchup.<\/p>\n

The Rams have an elite offense, and the Seahawks have an elite defense.<\/p>\n

The Rams were tied for second in EPA per play (0.12) and first in success rate (50.46%) on offense in the regular season.<\/p>\n

The Seahawks were second in EPA allowed per play (-0.12) and third in success rate allowed (39.25%) in the regular season.<\/p>\n

LA\u2019s offense versus Seattle\u2019s defense is a battle of juggernauts.<\/p>\n

Seattle\u2019s offense versus Los Angeles\u2019s defense is also intriguing, but not because they\u2019re elite units.<\/p>\n

Instead, the Seahawks were tied for 14th in EPA per play (0.02) and eighth in success rate (45.32%) in the regular season, and the Rams were 10th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05) and 11th in success rate allowed (41.60%).<\/p>\n

When the matchups are this tight, the quarterback can be the deciding factor.<\/p>\n

Matthew<\/strong> Stafford<\/strong> was tied for fourth in EPA per play (0.17), and Sam<\/strong> Darnold<\/strong> was tied for 13th in EPA per play (0.09) among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in the regular season.<\/p>\n

Stafford was better in the regular season, but Darnold acquitted himself well.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, how Stafford and Darnold do when pressured could be the difference in this contest.<\/p>\n

Among 33 quarterbacks with 100 pressured dropbacks this year, Stafford was seventh in PFF\u2019s passing grade (59.1), and Darnold was 17th (50.0).<\/p>\n

Obviously, Stafford will face the superior defense on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Sadly, Darnold might be saddled with shaky protection.<\/p>\n

Mike Macdonald<\/strong> is optimistic that left tackle Charles Cross<\/strong> will play on Sunday.<\/p>\n

However, he hasn\u2019t practiced this week with a foot injury.<\/p>\n

It gets worse. Backup tackles Josh<\/strong> Jones<\/strong> and Amari Kight<\/strong> also haven\u2019t practiced this week.<\/p>\n

Cross (77.9 PFF pass-blocking grade) and Jones (71.9 PFF pass-blocking grade) are Seattle\u2019s highest graded pass blocking tackles and their highest graded pass blockers among offensive linemen with at least 100 pass-blocking snaps this year.<\/p>\n

According to Pro Football Reference, the Rams were fourth in pressure rate (26.3%) in the regular season.<\/p>\n

Darnold could be under siege if the Seahawks are down to their fourth-string left tackle.<\/p>\n

However, even if a banged-up Cross can gut out his foot injury, he could struggle against a talented pass rush.<\/p>\n

Darnold\u2019s track record against Chris Shula<\/strong>\u2019s defense is also discouraging for Seattle\u2019s outlook this week.<\/p>\n

With the Vikings last year, Darnold faced the Rams in Week 8 and in the Wild Card Round.<\/p>\n

Darnold had a 66.2% completion rate, 485 passing yards, 5.06 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY\/A), 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 97.3 quarterback rating in two losses to the Rams last season.<\/p>\n

Darnold took 12 sacks (15.2% sack rate) and lost a fumble in those matchups.<\/p>\n

Darnold split the matchups against the Rams this year.<\/p>\n

However, he completed 65.4% of his passes for 549 yards, 3.57 ANY\/A, 2 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 62.4 quarterback rating while taking 4 sacks.<\/p>\n

In a likely tight matchup, taking the points with Stafford is appealing.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s even more appealing if Cross is unable to suit up.<\/p>\n\t

\n\t\t\n\t\t\"Sharp\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The AFC and NFC Championship Games for the 2025 NFL […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60832,"featured_media":120877,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"NFL Best Bets: Predictions & Against The Spread Picks for Conference Championships","_seopress_titles_desc":"Josh Shepardson delivers the best bets for the AFC and NFC Championship Games of the NFL season. Against the spread picks and predictions as well as best game totals, over\/unders to bet.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-120876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-betting","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Matthew-Stafford-NFCCG-2025-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60832"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120876"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120876\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121599,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120876\/revisions\/121599"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}