{"id":121367,"date":"2026-02-08T07:00:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T12:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/?p=121367"},"modified":"2026-02-08T10:16:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T15:16:27","slug":"super-bowl-60-analysis-predictions-breakdown-how-seahawks-can-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/super-bowl-60-analysis-predictions-breakdown-how-seahawks-can-win\/","title":{"rendered":"How the Seahawks Can Win Super Bowl 60: 3 Keys to Success"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for <strong>50% off using promo code <span style=\"color: #339966;\">SB60<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><em>Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Seahawks are the favorites in Super Bowl 60, but they cannot rest on their laurels.<\/p>\n<p>Let's look at the three keys to the Seahawks taking home the trophy on Super Bowl Sunday.<\/p>\n<div id=\"toc_container\" class=\"no_bullets\"><p class=\"toc_title\">Contents<\/p><ul class=\"toc_list\"><li><a href=\"#The_Importance_of_Early_Down_Success_Rate\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">1<\/span> The Importance of Early Down Success Rate<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Three_Keys_to_Seahawks_Winning_Super_Bowl_60\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">2<\/span> Three Keys to Seahawks Winning Super Bowl 60<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Early_Down_Success\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">3<\/span> Early Down Success<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Sam_Darnold_Under_Pressure\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">4<\/span> Sam Darnold Under Pressure<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#Throwing_to_Running_Backs\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">5<\/span> Throwing to Running Backs<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n<h2><span id=\"The_Importance_of_Early_Down_Success_Rate\">The Importance of Early Down Success Rate<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If you\u2019ve followed me for any amount of time, you know EDSR stands for Early Down Success Rate, an efficiency metric I created.<\/p>\n<p>It isn\u2019t simply success rate of first and second downs, but it does look at efficiency on the early downs.<\/p>\n<p>What you may remember from prior Super Bowl write-ups is that it is the single <strong>MOST CORRELATED STATISTIC TO WINNING IN THE POSTSEASON<\/strong> that exists over the last 10 years.<\/p>\n<p>The first thing we do is strip out the huge favorites\/dogs, and stipulate that games must be lined within 7 points of pick.<\/p>\n<p>That will give a more level playing field to evaluate the teams, and that\u2019s also what we have in this game.<\/p>\n<p>Next, teams with a 2+ turnover edge cover 81% of their postseason games.<\/p>\n<p>So, to determine the efficiency of a stat, it\u2019s best to strip them out.<\/p>\n<p>Let's focus only on games where one team doesn't have a 2+ turnover advantage:<\/p>\n<p>Teams with the better EDSR in these games have covered 73% of their games in the postseason since 2007 (49-18 ATS).<\/p>\n<p><em>Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/betting\/patriots-seahawks-super-bowl-60-everything-you-need-to-know\/\">Super Bowl 60 Hub<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<h3>Seahawks Early Down Success Rate:<\/h3>\n<p>Offensively, the Seahawks ranked #8.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>They played 5 games vs. top-10 EDSR defenses\n<ul>\n<li>#3 Texans, #4 Rams twice, #5 Vikings, #10 Jaguars<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>They played 7 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR defenses\n<ul>\n<li>#31 Commanders, #27 Colts, #26 Cardinals twice, #25 49ers twice, #24 Titans<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Defensively, the Seahawks ranked #1.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>They played 7 games vs. top-10 EDSR offenses\n<ul>\n<li>#1 Rams twice, #2 49ers twice, #4 Colts, #7 Falcons, #10 Jaguars<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>They played 5 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR offenses\n<ul>\n<li>#29 Titans, #26 Bucs, #25 Steelers, #24 Texans, #23 Vikings<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/analysis\/super-bowl-60-analysis-predictions-breakdown-how-patriots-can-win\/\"><em>Click here for the Patriots' three keys to winning Super Bowl 60<\/em><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"Three_Keys_to_Seahawks_Winning_Super_Bowl_60\">Three Keys to Seahawks Winning Super Bowl 60<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Early Down Success<\/li>\n<li>Sam Darnold Under Pressure<\/li>\n<li>Throwing to Running Backs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span id=\"Early_Down_Success\">Early Down Success<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>In the <strong>Klint<\/strong> <strong>Kubiak<\/strong> offense with <strong>Sam Darnold<\/strong> at quarterback, it\u2019s absolutely no secret that the Seahawks\u2019 goal is to run the ball often and generate shots from play action.<\/p>\n<p>This is not a pass-first team by any stretch.<\/p>\n<p>Seattle has the #1 highest run rate (49%) over the course of the entire game.<\/p>\n<p>In non-reactionary play calls, aka offensive intent from the play caller, on first half early downs, the Seahawks\u2019 51% run rate ranks #4 highest in the NFL.<\/p>\n<p>This seems like it could set up a problem for the Seahawks.<\/p>\n<p>They are the #4 highest run rate team (51%) on first half early downs, and they are facing a Patriots run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL with <strong>Milton<\/strong> <strong>Williams<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Other teams have tried running the ball against the Patriots on first half early downs, and it obviously hasn\u2019t worked out for them.<\/p>\n<p>So, will the Seahawks \u201cdo what we do\u201d and run the ball at a high rate in the first quarter and into the entire first half?<\/p>\n<p>Or, could Kubiak pivot into a far more balanced approach out of the gate in an attempt to avoid first down runs that fail and set up the Seahawks in second and obvious pass situations?<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to guess.<\/p>\n<p>But I did parse out the three strongest run defenses the Seahawks played this year aside from the Rams, a very familiar opponent:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Texans<\/li>\n<li>The Jaguars<\/li>\n<li>The Colts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>All three ranked in the top 10 against the run this year.<\/p>\n<p>In the first half of those three games, all of which were Seahawks wins by between 2 and 8 points, Seattle had a 58% pass rate on early downs in the first half.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s vastly higher than their 49% first half early down run rate over the course of the entire season, which ranked #4 highest in the NFL.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, a 58% pass rate on first half early downs would have ranked #11 in the NFL this year.<\/p>\n<p>Kubiak has shown his ability to adapt.<\/p>\n<p>If he does and finds success on early downs against the formidable Patriots run defense, the Seahawks should be in good shape to win this game.<\/p>\n<p><em>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\">Super Bowl Package<\/a> for <strong>50% off using promo code <span style=\"color: #339966;\">SB60<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1.25+ Unit Plays: <strong>10-0<\/strong> (100%) YTD<\/li>\n<li>Best Bet for the Super Bowl: <strong>16-3<\/strong> (84%) YTD<\/li>\n<li>All Elevated Props: <strong>37-12<\/strong> (76%) YTD<\/li>\n<li>All Sides & Totals: <strong>27-11<\/strong> (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A $100 bettor has won <strong>$13,069<\/strong> following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\">HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<h2><span id=\"Sam_Darnold_Under_Pressure\">Sam Darnold Under Pressure<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>How <strong>Sam<\/strong> <strong>Darnold<\/strong> handles the blitz and pressure that New England is looking to bring surely will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game, particularly if the Seahawks aren\u2019t able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like.<\/p>\n<p>The Seahawks have not played very many defenses this year that blitz at an above average rate.<\/p>\n<p>The NFL average blitz rate is 26%, and the Seahawks played only five games out of 19 total against teams that blitzed at a 27% rate or higher for the season:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#1 Vikings (48%)<br \/>\n#2 Falcons (35%)<br \/>\n#5 Bucs (31%)<br \/>\n#7 Steelers (30%)<br \/>\n#12 Colts (28%)<\/p>\n<p>Minnesota, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis all blitzed Darnold at above average rates, while the Bucs went the opposite direction and blitzed at below average rates (24%).<\/p>\n<p>Darnold in those five games when blitzed:<\/p>\n<p>36 of 60 (60%), 8.1 Y\/A, 5:4 TD:INT, -0.01 EPA\/attempt, 52% success, 44% pressure rate, 9% sack rate<\/p>\n<p>Darnold in those five games when the defenses decided not to blitz:<\/p>\n<p>70 of 99 (71%), 8.1 Y\/A, 4:0 TD:INT, +0.27 EPA\/attempt, 52% success, 25% pressure rate, 3% sack rate<\/p>\n<p>Patriots de facto DC <strong>Zak Kuhr<\/strong> recently stated his blitz rates are on a matchup basis.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, he is trying not to tip his hand as to how he will approach this game with his blitz rate.<\/p>\n<p>Will it be #1 of all teams like it\u2019s been thus far in the postseason?<\/p>\n<p>Or will it be #23, as it was the first eight weeks of the season?<\/p>\n<p>My guess is he will try to get pressure with four, and if that doesn\u2019t work, he\u2019ll go right back to blitzing in order to get pressure on Darnold.<\/p>\n<p>After all, Sam Darnold has some of the largest splits in the NFL with vs. without pressure of any quarterback.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"Throwing_to_Running_Backs\">Throwing to Running Backs<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>On the surface, like the rest of the Patriots defense, New England is solid against passes to running backs.<\/p>\n<p>On designed offense to RBs (early downs, first three quarters), the Patriots RB-pass defense ranks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#7 in Y\/A<br \/>\n#13 in success rate<br \/>\n#6 in EPA<\/p>\n<p>This is VERY similar to what they rank against WRs on these same downs:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#10 in Y\/A<br \/>\n#13 in success<br \/>\n#8 in EPA<\/p>\n<p>The difficulty in evaluating the Patriots pass defense is that they have played, by far, the #1 easiest schedule of passing attacks.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of RB-passing offenses, the Patriots played:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">#32 Bengals<br \/>\n#30 Dolphins twice<br \/>\n#29 Browns<br \/>\n#28 Raiders<br \/>\n#25 Saints<br \/>\n#24 Titans<br \/>\n#23 Ravens<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s five games against bottom-five RB pass offenses and eight of 17 total games against bottom-10 RB pass offenses.<\/p>\n<p>New England played a few top-eight RB pass offenses:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Falcons<br \/>\nSteelers<br \/>\nBucs<\/p>\n<p>Against <strong>Bijan<\/strong> <strong>Robinson<\/strong>, they gave up 50 yards on 8 catches.<\/p>\n<p>Against <strong>Jaylen<\/strong> <strong>Warren<\/strong>, they gave up 34 yards on 5 catches and another 10 yards on 1 catch to <strong>Kenneth<\/strong> <strong>Gainwell<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>So, like many other Patriots defensive passing stats, it\u2019s hard to really know what we\u2019re going to get here from the Seahawks RB passing game.<\/p>\n<p>We know the Patriots haven\u2019t played many good RB passing attacks, and against the only good ones they played with their RB1s, they gave up 50 and 44 receiving yards to the Falcons and Steelers RBs.<\/p>\n<p>I believe it is in the Seahawks\u2019 best interest to attack frequently with <strong>Kenneth<\/strong> <strong>Walker<\/strong> out of the backfield.<\/p>\n<p>That will be a better use of Walker as a ball carrier than running into the Patriots defensive line.<\/p>\n<p><em>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for <strong>50% off using promo code <span style=\"color: #339966;\">SB60<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/superbowl-package\/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=article-text\"><em>Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\t<div class='sfa-image-adds' style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\">\n\t\t<a href='https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/newsletter\/'>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Sharp-Football-Analysis-Newsletter-Ad.jpg\" class=\"attachment-size-full size-size-full\" alt=\"Sharp Football Analysis Newsletter\" \/>\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp&#8217;s Super Bowl 60  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":121370,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"How the Seahawks Can Win Super Bowl 60: 3 Keys to Success","_seopress_titles_desc":"Super Bowl 60 analysis from Warren Sharp. How the Seahawks can win Super Bowl 60. Key matchup trends and edges for Super Bowl 60.","_seopress_robots_index":"","mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-121367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-articles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_urls":{"medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-300x200.jpg","thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-150x150.jpg","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-768x512.jpg","custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-694x683.jpg","custom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-300x300.jpg","podcast-custom-size":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-350x350.jpg","homecustom-size-content":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-500x500.jpg","viz-thumb":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-255x140.jpg","amp-wp-small":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-100x100.jpg","amp-wp-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-738x430.jpg","amp-wp-normal":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-230x160.jpg","blog-large":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-669x272.jpg","blog-medium":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-320x202.jpg","recent-posts":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Seahawks-Defense-SB60-700x441.jpg"},"appp_media":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121367"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121367\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121512,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121367\/revisions\/121512"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}